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I was going to say - on tonight's polls, only with a loudhailer on the other side of the gates but - we're all still not really enlightened by tonight's polls so far, I think.Mexicanpete said:
Only if Boris invites him for drinks.Andy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
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Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???2 -
That's why I don't think weighting by past vote works.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But what Corbyn did so well in 2017 was found undecided voters and those who don’t normally vote. He didn’t really encourage Tory to Labour switchers then.speedy2 said:
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.CorrectHorseBattery said:
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
But I can't find any other explanation as to why Corbyn is capaigning almost exclusively in these Conservative marginals these past few days.0 -
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.speedy2 said:
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.IanB2 said:
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
Get brexit done?
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.0 -
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.Andy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.0 -
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.0 -
ComRes on EC Gives 326/245/15/410
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Fact LAB might do ok in Scotland. CON could get 20 seats SNP in trouble!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???0 -
Just watch we’ll get Tories at 322 or something and the SF abstentions will make the difference.Nobidexx said:
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.Andy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.0 -
It's in there, I just pressed "accept revisions".MikeL said:Whoever is updating Wiki has missed out BMG.
ComRes already recorded, BMG 3 hours ago not.0 -
They've been putting out lots of Facebook advertising under the cover of "independent" groups. Not sure how well targeted it has been though. The last one I saw was to remind me of all the extra protection to tenants like me that Labour was offering (under the guise of it being a cataclysmic attack on landlords).Richard_Nabavi said:
That's of little importance. What really matters is whether they are getting targeted messages out to specific segments of the voting population in the right seats (as they did very well in 2015) - for example, so that White Van Man in a Midlands marginal gets to hear how badly he'll be hit by Labour's plans for tax changes. I don't know the answer to that question.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
Since there are more tenants than landlords that sort of scattergun advertising could backfire.
See you all on Sunday - have fun!0 -
Boris one was subtler - the Labour one had the voter replace a 'Vote Conservative' poster with a 'Vote Labour' one - in Boris video the viewer was left to make up their own mind.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
Johnson will get his majority because his and Cumming's strategy from August of embracing and eliminating the Brexit Party will pay off. It is nearly the only reason he will get his majority, but it will work. People's views of Corbyn and Johnson are almost irrelevant. Or put another way, hatred of the other is a wash.Byronic said:Relax, PB rightwingers.
After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government
I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.
It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.0 -
Didn’t he say that at a rally in Scotland too? They’re fishing in the same pond as the SNP unlike the Tories so as long as Sturgeon is strong it’s hard to see a comeback0
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OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....egg said:
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.speedy2 said:
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.IanB2 said:
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?1 -
I think we can safely say Labour sub-200 is not going to happen. We are talking a Boris majority of 30 a worst for Labour, one at 10-15 perhaps even likelier, so more than enough for the Corbynistas to keep the red flag flying.kle4 said:
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.egg said:
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to losekle4 said:Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Corbyn's ilk are here to stay. The only question now is will the man himself be - on Friday evening - having coalition talks with Nicola, or sat by the fire considering whether to pass on the baton.0 -
Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
It doesn't, because the numbers are so small as to constitute a 1% swing which can easily be erased by voters too young to have voted in 2017.MikeL said:
I thought YouGov had far more 2017 Lab voting Con than 2017 Con voting Lab.speedy2 said:
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.CorrectHorseBattery said:
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
If above correct, Con lead must surely increase from 2017.0 -
I've seen SCON suggestions from 4-15, but 20 is a first!Ave_it said:
Fact LAB might do ok in Scotland. CON could get 20 seats SNP in trouble!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???0 -
Unfortunately most people are, I hate to say it, both ill informed and uneducated when it comes to anything technical, and Brexit certainly is technical.kle4 said:Get Brexit done is clearly overplayed to give the impression that it will all go away, but perhaps I overestimate the public in thinking that most people do know that in reality only this phase will be done, and many regard that as sufficient progress - it's clearly done enough for opponents, hence fighting so hard to not be this much done.
My wife doesn't understand this. She often goes around saying things like, "But surely everyone understands the impact of the Prison Reform Act [1] on the state of prisons in the 1830s?" She simply can't comprehend that most people neither know, nor care to know about anything prior to when they were born. Her hairdresser said to her, after she said that she was going to Berlin on holiday, "Oh, I love Russia me!"
My wife still doesn't get it. Slip of the tongue, she thinks.
Most people aren't idiots. But most people aren't interested. Johnson is saying 'Get Brexit Done' and he's saying he has a 'great deal'. As no one can deny that he does have a deal, they don't believe Jo Swinson, or Jeremy Corbyn when they say its a rubbish deal (Which I think it is). Sour grapes from sour losers, they think.
Johnson will get his majority tomorrow I'm afraid. Then he won't get Brexit done. And by next summer, the whole lot will be unravelling before his eyes. But he won't care. BEST RESULT SINCE 1987! I beat Major, Hague, Howard, Cameron and May! I'm a GENIUS!
[1] I've no idea if this is the right act my wife goes on about. Just proves my point further.1 -
It was into 1.35 and falling fast with decent money just before the ComRes was revealed. Since then £300k has been matched as it has gone back to the resistance level of 1.40.Andy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
Wild guess, but Survation at the top of the hour? Would be symbolic.0
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Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?0 -
LauraK. has already let that cat out of the bag.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???0 -
BONGRobD said:Wild guess, but Survation at the top of the hour? Would be symbolic.
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That would be pretty funny. I assume there'd be huge pressure to make them turn up, although it would probably be for naught. Still, that'd be peak Brexit.numbertwelve said:
Just watch we’ll get Tories at 322 or something and the SF abstentions will make the difference.Nobidexx said:
I think we're still quite far from that. A hung parliament with the tories at or above ~ 314 seats would be guaranteed not to result in Corbyn as PM, as neither the DUP nor the tories would support him. A bit below that and he'd first need to get support from the libdems.Andy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
While I believe there's a small chance of a hung parliament at the moment, a hung parliament with the tories below 314 seems extremely unlikely to me.0 -
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?0 -
That was corbyn speaking today. What a stump speech. We haven’t heard anything like that from Boris, just gimmicks, dirty tricks units, not real oven baked politicsRichard_Nabavi said:
OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....egg said:
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.speedy2 said:
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.IanB2 said:
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?0 -
She’s let us known Labour hasn’t done well on postal votes. But why would they, they’re skewed to the elderly.Mexicanpete said:
LauraK. has already let that cat out of the bag.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???1 -
You can have 325. Boris gets his Brexit WA, but cannot claim a majority. Take it or leave it.Ave_it said:0 -
Survation, Delta and YouGov should be arriving within the next few minutes.
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People are looking at the polls, FFSAndy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.0 -
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.0 -
What was the grand total on the registration meter in the end?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
So £58bn to the WASPIs isn't a gimmick? Is a real oven-baked policy? Are you completely mad? (And that's just taking one late addition to the laundry-list of lunacy).egg said:
That was corbyn speaking today. What a stump speech. We haven’t heard anything like that from Boris, just gimmicks, dirty tricks units, not real oven baked politicsRichard_Nabavi said:
OK, if you strip out the hateful anti-Tory bile....egg said:
No. There’s been hope. Rather than a dirty tricks campaign there has been positivity.speedy2 said:
I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.IanB2 said:
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.
What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.
There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.
Now explain how bunging £58bn to a spectacularly undeserving but noisome cause is a step in the right direction which leaves no-one behind?0 -
Good work!Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's in there, I just pressed "accept revisions".MikeL said:Whoever is updating Wiki has missed out BMG.
ComRes already recorded, BMG 3 hours ago not.0 -
My estimate from earlier was pretty close. I said 47.5 million.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
1.7% increase...doesnt seem like that much?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
A five-year PB ban for Damien Lyons?RobD said:wooliedyed said:Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside
KLAXON on standby.
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Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....Byronic said:
See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.
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800,000 people is enough to swing the election0
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Questions being asked about Tulip Siddiq’s campaign - https://www.channel4.com/news/tulip-siddiq-uk-wing-of-bangladeshs-ruling-party-appear-to-be-campaigning-for-labour-candidate.0
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He has had his chance twice, and blown it twice. Third time lucky?KentRising said:
I think we can safely say Labour sub-200 is not going to happen. We are talking a Boris majority of 30 a worst for Labour, one at 10-15 perhaps even likelier, so more than enough for the Corbynistas to keep the red flag flying.kle4 said:
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.egg said:
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to losekle4 said:Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
Corbyn's ilk are here to stay. The only question now is will the man himself be - on Friday evening - having coalition talks with Nicola, or sat by the fire considering whether to pass on the baton.0 -
23 hours and 6 minutes until BONG!!!!!!0
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Far too much hysteria over one poll .
I’d advise Tory supporters in here to have a drink and chill . This just doesn’t feel like 2017 . All the fundamentals support a Tory majority .
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There is a spreadsheet that shows a lot of the big increases are places like Hackney i.e. they will need a second set of scales to weigh the votes and student areas. There are about 20-30 seats up that are marginals.noisywinter said:
1.7% increase...doesnt seem like that much?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Heavy betting on a Tory maj. Have they seen a poll we haven't?0
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Oh.Byronic said:
Calm down!0 -
I don't think anyone is disputing that. What is in dispute is the registration surge.CorrectHorseBattery said:800,000 people is enough to swing the election
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If we are not at least 10 per cent clear then CHB is prime minister.3
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The swing will be from Labour to SNPspeedy2 said:
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
And it will be more than 3%.0 -
A reminder of how fragile the SNP is in Scotland, a CON 30, LAB 30, SNP 30, LD 7 result would give in seats:
LAB 30
CON 18
SNP 6
LD 50 -
One of the unexpected upsides of this election has been the first signs of the death of Scottish independence, as a desire and a cause.DavidL said:
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax0 -
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......Byronic said:
People are looking at the polls, FFSAndy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.0 -
I’ll be nice to Jeremy. He can take as many SNP seats as he wants.speedy2 said:
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
0 -
Or who they vote for. Why assume they all vote Marxist?RobD said:
I don't think anyone is disputing that. What is in dispute is the registration surge.CorrectHorseBattery said:800,000 people is enough to swing the election
0 -
Its the fear of unknown unknowns.nico67 said:Far too much hysteria over one poll .
I’d advise Tory supporters in here to have a drink and chill . This just doesn’t feel like 2017 . All the fundamentals support a Tory majority .0 -
Labour largest party, imagine itspeedy2 said:A reminder of how fragile the SNP is in Scotland, a CON 30, LAB 30, SNP 30, LD 7 result would give in seats:
LAB 30
CON 18
SNP 6
LD 50 -
No. The +/- 3% quoted figure is a hangover that just isn't bloody dying. To explain.Jonathan said:Is the error margin, whilst unquoted, still mathematically +/- 3%?
The margin of error for a random sample of sufficient size from a representative sample frame is approx 3%. But polling in the UK doesn't use random sampling (it uses quota sampling) and doesn't sample from a representative sample frame (it uses self-selecting groups, these days usually in an online panel). The pollsters weight this to make it look like a proper sample and usually this works but it destroys the theory.
That lack of theoretical justification was dealt differently in the US. US statisticians are very prim and earnest and had a polite debate about nonrepresentative sampling. But UK pollsters get drunk and fall over, and for years this deficit was swept under the carpet: For example, Peter Kellner in his guide to journalists still used the 3% as a rule-of-thumb and one pollster had the cheek to say "as if it were a random sample" even tho they knew damn well it wasn't.
The BPC are an uneasy alliance between academics and pollsters, and for years the BPC were getting increasingly snotty about this problem. Eventually following the House of Lords enquiry they snapped and recommended that BPC members say in the poll release what the margin of error is for that poll. So now if you want to know the margin of error for a given poll, look in the small print.
0 -
This time tomorrow, it will be T minus 5 minutes until Curtice.0
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Experienced voters Not elderly.CorrectHorseBattery said:
She’s let us known Labour hasn’t done well on postal votes. But why would they, they’re skewed to the elderly.Mexicanpete said:
LauraK. has already let that cat out of the bag.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???0 -
Your bong is at 9pmFreggles said:23 hours and 6 minutes until BONG!!!!!!
0 -
I'm mulling an article on this, which references Macbeth. Not the bits of Macbeth you'd immediately think of.Byronic said:
One of the unexpected upsides of this election has been the first signs of the death of Scottish independence, as a desire and a cause.DavidL said:
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax
But it can wait until we know the result of the GE.0 -
I'm not opinionating, it is true.tyson said:
Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....Byronic said:
See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.
These days the essence of an ad is making it viral and shareable. That was the most viral and shareable ad of the campaign, by a mile.
Job done.0 -
He typically sends an emissary to communicate with the masses.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:This time tomorrow, it will be T minus 5 minutes until Curtice.
2 -
FWIW that's inline with UK population growth, so doesn't necessarily represent a surge of any segment of population.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
OTOH and moving slightly from my original point, CON + UKIP or BP is almost exactly the same as 2017, while Lab+LD is also the same as 2017. The only thing that matters in this election and the reason why the Tories will get their majority is that they have been more effective at squeezing the BP vote than Labour squeezing the Lib Dems.Sean_F said:
Sure, but polls are quite consistent that more people have switched Lab to Con since 2017 than the other way around.FF43 said:
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Labour has 20% of Leavers which is as per my understanding, the same as 20170
-
1 poll and the YouGov MRP, and Boris making gaffes, and Tories lacking policy substance to get a message out in the campaign, and where Boris has been campaigning, and...nico67 said:Far too much hysteria over one poll .
I’d advise Tory supporters in here to have a drink and chill . This just doesn’t feel like 2017 . All the fundamentals support a Tory majority .
Ok, its hardly definitive reason for a Tory panic. But it's not nothing.0 -
Oh dear. Premature Bong! Sounds painful.bigjohnowls said:
Your bong is at 9pmFreggles said:23 hours and 6 minutes until BONG!!!!!!
0 -
Who the actual fuck are Tortoise???spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
0 -
24 hours to save the NHS Polling IndustryAramintaMoonbeamQC said:This time tomorrow, it will be T minus 5 minutes until Curtice.
1 -
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7KentRising said:
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......Byronic said:
People are looking at the polls, FFSAndy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
*waits, anxiously*1 -
If Labour are apporaching their 2017 levels nationally then just like the Conservatives they should be approaching their 2017 levels in Scotland too.DavidL said:
The swing will be from Labour to SNPspeedy2 said:
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
And it will be more than 3%.
If both of them are high it means the SNP and other 3rd parties will be down.0 -
1
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I wouldn't be optimistic, they haven't been hitting most seats with the ground campaign.numbertwelve said:
I’ll be nice to Jeremy. He can take as many SNP seats as he wants.speedy2 said:
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.0 -
The Nats are going to be relatively frustrated tomorrow. Is my hunchRichard_Nabavi said:
I'm mulling an article on this, which references Macbeth. Not the bits of Macbeth you'd immediately think of.Byronic said:
One of the unexpected upsides of this election has been the first signs of the death of Scottish independence, as a desire and a cause.DavidL said:
2 Labour seats in Scotland. Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy because the SNP screwed up in the latter. The rest are toast.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes but a poll has said the same, a slow Labour comeback in Scotland.numbertwelve said:
Well he’s hardly going to say “we’re f**cked” is he?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Is their card? Surprise seat gains in Scotland?
Not sure why. Because Brexit is such a clusterfuck? But even Sturgeon is backing away from the issue, and is now talking about devomax
But it can wait until we know the result of the GE.0 -
Need to get some industrial strength whisky for tomorrow night.0
-
Why change a habit of a lifetime? Worrying is your metier.Byronic said:
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7KentRising said:
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......Byronic said:
People are looking at the polls, FFSAndy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
*waits, anxiously*0 -
No worriestyson said:
Sometimes you really do come out with a load of bobbins.....Byronic said:
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Whilst Tory campaign thought it effective idea doing that bit of cheese. Corbyn has gone into labour leave territory saying this: Leave no one behind, heal the division not exploit it
Yes a momentous decision will be made by the British people on December twelfth.
Do you want to take the leap into the unknown with Boris bad brexit to make your life better? Or do you want to try this manifesto first? A manifesto of much needed reform. A manifesto to transform, that will give oomph to the economy, retrain and reskill Britain's workforce and get Britain fit for the fight of 21st Century. An inclusive manifesto that will leave no one behind. A stepping stone in the right direction, between what has been wrong in this Tory decade and a better future in the next decade.
Or do you want to stick with the conservatives, support Boris' bad Brexit and our country remain unprepared for what is to come? The Brexit deal that divides the United Kingdom, are we ready for that? The Bad Brexit deal that divides us forever to come.
From the most untrustworthy leader comes the promise Brexit will be done and dusted and out your lives in January. Does anyone actually believe that? The truth, in January comes the hard right agenda on you and your families for the next five years that is hiding behind the lie Brexit will be done and dusted in January.
Yes there is important decision to be made by the British people on December twelfth. An important moment for you, your family, your community, your country.
But make your mind up and use your vote knowing, if you go with labours inclusive approach and you don’t like it, if despite our efforts and intent to help the many left behind for so long we fail you, you will get a chance to change that government. If the nation goes with Boris and his bad Brexit and you don’t like it, there will be no going back. This is the momentous choice before you on December 12th. Make sure you are part of it. If you only vote once in your life, get out and vote this time.0 -
It’s not going to happen . You’re worrying over nothing .Byronic said:
I will only worry if Survation shows a lead under 7KentRising said:
This is all great and sensible, Byronic, but in 10 minutes when Survation also show a tightening race.......Byronic said:
People are looking at the polls, FFSAndy_JS said:Curious. Tory maj has come back down to 1.39 from 1.45 earlier today.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Calm down!
The WORST poll for the Tories has a knife edge between a hung parliament and a Tory maj. The BEST poll for the Tories has a Tory landslide. The average is a very solid Tory majority.
Meanwhile leader-rating figures show a decided preference for Boris over Corbyn
The MRP polls show a decent Tory majority. Postal votes - allegedly - indicate a strong Tory performance. Anecdotal evidence from MPs, canvassers, activists tell us that, at the very least, Labour are back-pedalling from 2017, and the public are much warier of Labour under Corbyn than they were.
Taken together this is quite a compelling picture.
Now, it is possible that ALL these polls and anecdotes are utterly wrong. But if you're a betting man, the chances of that are really quite low.
*waits, anxiously*0 -
I demand more polls.1
-
Oh, for Pete's sake...CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAhF8tPqafQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2af69xt0VKE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGxjIBEZvx0
1 -
What results will each of the party be happy with
My go...
Con 340 plus
Lab 240 plus
LD's 20 plus
SNP 42 plus0 -
I think their difficulty is deeper than that.Byronic said:The Nats are going to be relatively frustrated tomorrow. Is my hunch
0 -
Quite possibly the last GE in the United Kingdom...DavidL said:
More likely the last election under the FTPA. So close but no cigar.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
1 -
What time do we expect the final polls to be released?0
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But Labour are still well short of 2017. And their distribution shows that they are doing better in the south. Scotland is a disaster area for them.speedy2 said:
If Labour are apporaching their 2017 levels nationally then just like the Conservatives they should be approaching their 2017 levels in Scotland too.DavidL said:
The swing will be from Labour to SNPspeedy2 said:
Since the SNP has lost it's Conservative leg in 2017 it's been very vulnerable to losing it's Socialist leg.kle4 said:
That people like to hear optimistic predictions that tell them how great they are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1204877968344002560
What does Jeremy know???
Scotland is pretty unpredictable and SLAB outperformed expectations last time and it seems they might well dos so again, but given where they started out it would take something epochal to be 'back'. Being in second place would be a start.
A swing of just 3% from SNP to Labour is enough to wipeout the SNP from most of their seats.
And it will be more than 3%.
If both of them are high it means the SNP and other 3rd parties will be down.0 -
I have overstrength white rum from Jamaica 70% or in Tory nurse terms 120%Andy_JS said:Need to get some industrial strength whisky for tomorrow night.
1 -
Perhaps they are all campaigning?CorrectHorseBattery said:0
This discussion has been closed.