politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting Brexit Done
Comments
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You may be joking but I think that's seriously it. Polls are in, time to make final bets.RobD said:
There's an election tomorrow.KentRising said:
What's going on?FrancisUrquhart said:At this rate, 200k will have been matched on Betfair Majority overall market in less than 30mins.
I'll get my coat....0 -
Big money still piling in, £210k matched in past 30 mins.0
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Laura's poll?FrancisUrquhart said:I suspect there must be another decent one for the Tories tonight from the way the market was moving before ComRes.
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So it was before Bekogate?nico67 said:Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .0 -
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And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.nico67 said:Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.0 -
Top man Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:OK, I'm going to rise to the challenge, and I'm staying on topic as well:
There once was a PM called Boris
Who found in high office no solace.
"Crikes! To get Brexit done
Is really no fun,
I think I'll go back to my Horace".0 -
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Time has run out.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Friends of my fiance texted her today, one saying she's voting Tory, another saying leaning Tory. As I do not know their voting history this anecdote is utterly useless, but it reassured my trembling bowels that I am not the sole elector voting Tory tomorrow....0
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That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.0 -
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.4 -
Saying that, there may be a general election in February.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
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One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....0
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Not if as last time, 15% of Labour voters make up their mind tomorrow.
HP - my final prediction. To the surprise of nobody.
But I’ll be here regardless.0 -
At this rate, that when we will be having another one.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Where does this 15% stat come from? I'm curious about the other parties.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not if as last time, 15% of Labour voters make up their mind tomorrow.
HP - my final prediction. To the surprise of nobody.
But I’ll be here regardless.0 -
Does anyone personally know a candidate in tomorrow's election?
I do, and the pressure on my MP is incredible, even though there was a huge majority from the last election.
My wife has been a Borough Councillor for 16 years and has had a healthy majority in each election. When I spoke to her at the count at the last election the conversation went along the lines of:
Me: I've been counting the votes out of the boxes, can you add these up as I read them up out
Candidate: Oh, fuck Off!
(Sorry Mods)
Good luck to all who put themselves forward. It is not a personal vote, we do not judge you on yourself, only on your political persuasion.
Having said that, if you are not of my political persuasion (see earlier post), eff off
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*Points at Brexit*FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
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They only need to outperform the polling a little.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
But it feels like it is not quite enough, overall, especially with so many postals returned during a period of higher support for the Tories.0 -
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.0 -
Lol @ +18. It's a forced binary choice; can only ever be an even number movement.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
Breaking: numbers look bigger if you double them.0 -
The Panelbase was conducted on 10 and 11 December so perhaps it had the increase in Labour negated by the dimwit Ashworths comments the next day .MikeL said:
And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.nico67 said:Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.0 -
If another Winter election were to happen in the next few months, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models into industrial landfill, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.0
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RobD said:
Where does this 15% stat come from? I'm curious about the other parties.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not if as last time, 15% of Labour voters make up their mind tomorrow.
HP - my final prediction. To the surprise of nobody.
But I’ll be here regardless.
That 15% might decide not to vote for Labour,RobD said:
Where does this 15% stat come from? I'm curious about the other parties.CorrectHorseBattery said:Not if as last time, 15% of Labour voters make up their mind tomorrow.
HP - my final prediction. To the surprise of nobody.
But I’ll be here regardless.0 -
Nah, October - after the referendum!RobD said:
Saying that, there may be a general election in February.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
In my uncounted month,egg said:
It wouldn’t be a shock. These brexit years have been so cruel on voters.CorrectHorseBattery said:Mr Moderate will have ComRes as a Labour lead.
Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.
Cummings is smart. And there have been solid reasons to believe HY all through these months.
But they both missed the deciding factor.
Lunacy.
https://darkstarastrology.com/full-moon-december-2019/
My crater of darkness surrounds me,
Awaiting a spike of lunar light
For my therianthropy.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
By blood, fog, oak and mead
The hare, the storm, wolf, the seed,
This is the moment its reached its height
This moment forth depreciate.
Esbat thirteen lunar Sabbath
Potent and powerful, the fertility cycle,
Her mounds and valleys wilderness beauty,
Mother natures creation principle.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Bare skin in the lunar light
The Goddess power at its height,
This is the moment shes reached her peak
This moment forth deteriorate.
A time was I poured with joy
Climbing greenwood to the pasture,
Slept under a spell of earthly delight
Soul cradled in summer folia.
Run with it Human Beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Wax and wane wheel of year
Pause on your path and stand so still,
This is the moment its reached its height
This moment forth depreciate.
The human is no solitary creature
But each beast hunts in different ways,
The social animal with social behavior
Is within itself still for organism of prey.
Run with it Human beast
One with it under dyad chaste,
Hunters instinct – stalk and wait
To hunt to kill, hide or chase,
This is the moment he reached his might
This moment forth deteriorate.
At time of full moon,
This moment forth on the wane
‘till peak of eternal light slips from view.
A beast at rest under the darkest moon.0 -
Schloer. Doritos Lightly Salted. Garlic/Sour Cream and Chive dip. Longstanding (well, 2001) tradition.state_go_away said:What is everybody drinking tomorrow night anyway ?
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Using a binary choice is like the Two Party Preferred that Australian pollsters favour. When a party leads 54/46, it's heading for a big win.Endillion said:
Lol @ +18. It's a forced binary choice; can only ever be an even number movement.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.
Breaking: numbers look bigger if you double them.0 -
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.WhisperingOracle said:
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
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I prefer Some Like It Hot by Power Station. 😊Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W5aKwrsYIM&feature=emb_titleRobD said:
There's an election tomorrow.KentRising said:
What's going on?FrancisUrquhart said:At this rate, 200k will have been matched on Betfair Majority overall market in less than 30mins.
I'll get my coat....
(For those who don't know, Arcadia + Power Station = Duran Duran + Robert Palmer).1 -
Hmm, this is splitting hairs I think, we're talking mere hours between poll endings. I think what we are seeing is some polls showing a real tightening, others not. Simple as that. Which set will be right? Get back to me in 24 hours and 30 minutes.....[gulp]nico67 said:
The Panelbase was conducted on 10 and 11 December so perhaps it had the increase in Labour negated by the dimwit Ashworths comments the next day .MikeL said:
And this could tie in with the very poor YouGov MRP result for Con on Tues compared to Mon.nico67 said:Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.
That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .
We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .
Having said that - the flat BMG and Panelbase don't really tie in with the above.0 -
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I have long since assumed that we will leave. My main concern has been to avoid a disruptive hard exit. I wish Mrs May’s deal had been voted for because it is, IMO, better than the WA now on offer.Boysie said:Let me tell you what my difference is regarding your article above:
1) I do not disagree that "The WA only governs the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU not the future relationship with it." . However, without that first step, there can be no fulfilment of the result that concluded with the majority of the electorate (that bothered to vote) electing to leave.
2) Your further statement "But even giving him credit for that (ignoring the fact that his renegotiation largely – though not entirely – involved a rehash of a previous version) the matters covered by the WA are very different and far fewer in number than those normally covered by an FTA." does not recognise that this first step is not a presentation of an FTA. Many commentators stated that Boris would not come back with a new WA, now they are moving on to "This isn't an FTA" or "He won't come back with an FTA"
I have no doubt that there are many obstacles to overcome, and I fully understand that there will be further negotiations to conclude a full FTA ....... and the article that you have written, and it articulates your position very well, is written from the standpoint of someone who really wants to Remain.
Those of us who want to leave are not persuaded.
The reason I wrote this was not to persuade but because it seems to me that there has been very little discussion of what an FTA involves, the difficulties to be overcome and the trade offs and decisions to be made. Without such discussion I fear that we will get a sub-optimal FTA and also that when the consequences reveal themselves it will lead to more strife, anger and disappointment, especially among many who voted Leave.
The country has IMO deluded itself about what Brexit actually means and involves. Fine to vote for it and to accept the consequences. But not fine to do so on a false prospectus which is what I think all 3 parties are offering at this election. Britain has deluded itself about the EU - one reason for the Leave vote - and is now deluding itself about the what and how of departure. I think that a real pity.
One reason why I am wavering about voting for the Lib Dems, which is my natural preference, is that I think their Revoke Article 50 policy is strategically inept and the wrong policy. Asking people to think again is one thing. Ignoring their vote quite another.
We badly need some honest politicians to speak some hard truths about the choices facing us. We are not getting this, one reason why I am finding this election so depressing and the choice of who to vote or, even, whether to vote so hard.
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Jezza's having a rally! It's hardly Sheffield, though (thread):
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/12048580421242920990 -
So far I think we've had...WhisperingOracle said:Average of tonight's polls so far must be about 8.5 ?
ComRes 5%
Panelbase 9%
BMG 9%
NumberCruncherPolitics 10%
Qriosly 13%
Opinium 12%
So that's a crude mean of just under 10%, which is about where the mean polling gap has been for about the last 15 days, and also right in the middle of the Tory leads given by the two iterations of the YouGov MRP.
Incidentally, Qriosly got as close to the final Con-Lab gap in 2017 as Survation did (1.5% out, only in favour of Lab rather than Con.) It'll be interesting to see if Survation come out with a similar gap to theirs when they publish later on.0 -
This might be the last election fought under FPTP0
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Or as we all used to dismissively describe the Italians "ungovernable".TheScreamingEagles said:
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.WhisperingOracle said:
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Did Bekogate break through? Is a grown man running away from journalists into a walk-in fridge intrinsically hilarious?0
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Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.CorrectHorseBattery said:
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.0 -
Given that Johnson and Corbyn support FPTP that seems absurdly unlikely.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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One can only hope.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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I should also point out that my hard left Labour friend was nearly persuaded to vote for Boris by the Love Actually video!
So this stuff works.
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The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls. FridgeGate, PhoneInThePocketGate, FakePunchGate, etc.1
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Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside0
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Not likely. it is not in the interest of either Labour or Tory to change it and a hung parliament wouldn't have the political capital to spend on changing it.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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wooliedyed said:
Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside
KLAXON on standby.0 -
Please don't. I don't want to have Nigel Farage get new political life.Gallowgate said:
One can only hope.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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Whoever is updating Wiki has missed out BMG.
ComRes already recorded, BMG 3 hours ago not.0 -
"We're all LEFT!"AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Jezza's having a rally! It's hardly Sheffield, though (thread):
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/12048580421242920992 -
It's also the case that a lot of the modern media is powered by free labour from "social media", and the under-employed daytime posters tend not to vote Conservative.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls. FridgeGate, PhoneInThePocketGate, FakePunchGate, etc.
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This is more like it.wooliedyed said:Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside
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It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
He already has one. He’s now called Boris Johnson.Gabs3 said:
Please don't. I don't want to have Nigel Farage get new political life.Gallowgate said:
One can only hope.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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Have the spanish ruled out a third GE in a year yet? I'd be exhausted. What about Israel? Could be three in a calendar year for them too.TheScreamingEagles said:
We're becoming more European/Italian with these frequent general elections.WhisperingOracle said:
If that were to happen, the general public is so unused to such frequent elections, and may be so fatigued and irritated, that it would be the most unpredictable for about 50 years, necessitate large-scale throwing out of models, and make this one look a model of predictability, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
The trend would be favourable for Labour if the general election was in February and not tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the trend.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
I would go Crikes to Cripes to be more Boris, but good limerick.bigjohnowls said:
Top man Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:OK, I'm going to rise to the challenge, and I'm staying on topic as well:
There once was a PM called Boris
Who found in high office no solace.
"Crikes! To get Brexit done
Is really no fun,
I think I'll go back to my Horace".0 -
"Incidentally"? Don't you mean "Curiously"?Black_Rook said:
So far I think we've had...WhisperingOracle said:Average of tonight's polls so far must be about 8.5 ?
ComRes 5%
Panelbase 9%
BMG 9%
NumberCruncherPolitics 10%
Qriosly 13%
Opinium 12%
So that's a crude mean of just under 10%, which is about where the mean polling gap has been for about the last 15 days, and also right in the middle of the Tory leads given by the two iterations of the YouGov MRP.
Incidentally, Qriosly got as close to the final Con-Lab gap in 2017 as Survation did (1.5% out, only in favour of Lab rather than Con.) It'll be interesting to see if Survation come out with a similar gap to theirs when they publish later on.0 -
I'm in favour, but why do you think that? I cannot see Tories or Labour wanting it still.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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The revoke policy only ever kicked in if there was a LibDem majority. You can probably risk ignoring it now.Cyclefree said:
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I have long since assumed that we will leave. My main concern has been to avoid a disruptive hard exit. I wish Mrs May’s deal had been voted for because it is, IMO, better than the WA now on offer.Boysie said:Let me tell you what my difference is regarding your article above:
1) I do not disagree that "The WA ly – involved a rehash of a previous version) the matters covered by the WA are very different and far fewer in number than those normally covered by an FTA." does not recognise that this first step is not a presentation of an FTA. Many commentators stated that Boris would not come back with a new WA, now they are moving on to "This isn't an FTA" or "He won't come back with an FTA"
I have no doubt that there are many obstacles to overcome, and I fully understand that there will be further negotiations to conclude a full FTA ....... and the article that you have written, and it articulates your position very well, is written from the standpoint of someone who really wants to Remain.
Those of us who want to leave are not persuaded.
The reason I wrote this was not to persuade but because it seems to me that there has been very little discussion of what an FTA involves, the difficulties to be overcome and the trade offs and decisions to be made. Without such discussion I fear that we will get a sub-optimal FTA and also that when the consequences reveal themselves it will lead to more strife, anger and disappointment, especially among many who voted Leave.
The country has IMO deluded itself about what Brexit actually means and involves. Fine to vote for it and to accept the consequences. But not fine to do so on a false prospectus which is what I think all 3 parties are offering at this election. Britain has deluded itself about the EU - one reason for the Leave vote - and is now deluding itself about the what and how of departure. I think that a real pity.
One reason why I am wavering about voting for the Lib Dems, which is my natural preference, is that I think their Revoke Article 50 policy is strategically inept and the wrong policy. Asking people to think again is one thing. Ignoring their vote quite another.
We badly need some honest politicians to speak some hard truths about the choices facing us. We are not getting this, one reason why I am finding this election so depressing and the choice of who to vote or, even, whether to vote so hard.
At least they have been consistent in articulating the long term damage that Brexit will do.0 -
Bozo is a fraud. He couldn’t even be bothered to come up with an original idea .Byronic said:I should also point out that my hard left Labour friend was nearly persuaded to vote for Boris by the Love Actually video!
So this stuff works.
Labours Rosena Allin-Khan already had a take on Love Actually a few weeks back .0 -
The Comres poll is dreadful for us and shows LAB as new favourites. Where is Survation?1
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I thought YouGov had far more 2017 Lab voting Con than 2017 Con voting Lab.speedy2 said:
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.CorrectHorseBattery said:
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.
If above correct, Con lead must surely increase from 2017.0 -
Try and update a live politically sensitive page and see how long your edits last if you're not one of their chosen fewByronic said:
You do realise that YOU are allowed to update Wiki? It's not even that hard...MikeL said:Whoever is updating Wiki has missed out BMG.
ComRes already recorded, BMG 3 hours ago not.0 -
That is the OPPOSITE of what the klaxon is for, Rob!RobD said:wooliedyed said:Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside
KLAXON on standby.0 -
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
Sure, but polls are quite consistent that more people have switched Lab to Con since 2017 than the other way around.FF43 said:
It isn't good news for Labour. But no-one expects Labour to lead the next government. The question is whether the Conservatives get an absolute majority. The question doesn't necessarily match that situation. It's possible to vote Labour without really expecting them to win.Sean_F said:
42% of Labour Leavers preferring the Conservatives is not good news for Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553
It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.0 -
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to losekle4 said:Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
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I haven't noticed train nationalizations by Boris.IanB2 said:
Having been adopted by the government, what more is there for it to achieve?FrancisUrquhart said:One thing is certain, Corbynonomics isn't going anywhere....
In fact the only things I remember from the Conservative campaign is:
Get Brexit Done, We will close your favourite TV station, and Don't take the money from Anti-Semites.
The only thing I remember from Labour's campaign is:
We will give you loads of lovely Money.1 -
That's of little importance. What really matters is whether they are getting targeted messages out to specific segments of the voting population in the right seats (as they did very well in 2015) - for example, so that White Van Man in a Midlands marginal gets to hear how badly he'll be hit by Labour's plans for tax changes. I don't know the answer to that question.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
But what Corbyn did so well in 2017 was found undecided voters and those who don’t normally vote. He didn’t really encourage Tory to Labour switchers then.speedy2 said:
Just looking inside the polls that ask for past vote the Conservative lead should be just 2% because they are not getting enough 2017 LAB voters to increase their lead, they never did, from the start of the campaign it's single digits.CorrectHorseBattery said:
What is in Corbyn’s MRP? What would he be doing? Assuming very high youth turnout?speedy2 said:
That's what I noticed too.spudgfsh said:
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1204862853242589184DavidL said:
Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.ozymandias said:
Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.spudgfsh said:
13% Tory leadozymandias said:
And what did Qriously say today....?spudgfsh said:
there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% leadRazedabode said:
Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.FrancisUrquhart said:Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...
We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority
This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.
Corbyn's MRP has Labour leading the Consevatives, he has shifted his campaogn to Conservative marginals up to the 3% swing to Labour.
But weighting by past vote didn't work in 2015 or 2017, if it did Milliband and May would have won easily.0 -
Oh FFS, She ripped off a movie scene, just as many political campaigns have ripped off the SAME scene (Hillary Clinton did one), and of course the original scene was ripped off a Bob Dylan film clip.nico67 said:
Bozo is a fraud. He couldn’t even be bothered to come up with an original idea .Byronic said:I should also point out that my hard left Labour friend was nearly persuaded to vote for Boris by the Love Actually video!
So this stuff works.
Labours Rosena Allin-Khan already had a take on Love Actually a few weeks back .
Wankpiffle of the highest order.1 -
This one is only used in the most exceptional of circumstances, such a CON +1 in ScotlandDrutt said:
That is the OPPOSITE of what the klaxon is for, Rob!RobD said:wooliedyed said:Survation say their poll includes a 1000 Scottish subsample which will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone alongside
KLAXON on standby. 0 -
She is not, and will not be, an MP.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
More likely the last election under the FTPA. So close but no cigar.CorrectHorseBattery said:This might be the last election fought under FPTP
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Let's be honest, he didn't come up with anything. His ad team did (or didn't).nico67 said:
Bozo is a fraud. He couldn’t even be bothered to come up with an original idea .Byronic said:I should also point out that my hard left Labour friend was nearly persuaded to vote for Boris by the Love Actually video!
So this stuff works.
Labours Rosena Allin-Khan already had a take on Love Actually a few weeks back .0 -
Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.1
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There was a young Liberal called Swinson,Richard_Nabavi said:OK, I'm going to rise to the challenge, and I'm staying on topic as well:
There once was a PM called Boris
Who found in high office no solace.
"Crikes! To get Brexit done
Is really no fun,
I think I'll go back to my Horace".
Who was fresh, energetic and winsome.
But she hacked off some folk,
When she stood for Revoke,
And the voters decided to rinse 'em.0 -
No chance imoAndy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
0 -
The Boris popping out for a cup of tea was quite good too ( even if he took his hot water right from the tap).Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.0 -
My favourite pollster is Qriously. Based on other polls CORBYN has won.0
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Only if Boris invites him for drinks.Andy_JS said:Exciting times for Labour supporters. Corbyn could be in Downing Street within 40 hours.
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0
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No let up in the big money on Betfair OM market. £300k matched in an hour.0
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0
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See my other post. Lots of political campaigns have used the Love Actually Meme, and the meme itself is a parody! - of a Bob Dylan vid.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They stole Love Actually from a Labour MP. It wasn’t their idea.Byronic said:
It's not been brilliant, but it's been pretty good.Andy_JS said:The Tory campaign in the last few days has been less than optimal, and that is showing in some of the recent polls.
MUCH better than 2017. The problem is they got tired in the last few days and when Boyfloorgate happened they panicked.
The one single stand out ad of the entire campaign was theirs. Boris' Love Actually spoof.
I think what annoys Boris-haters is that Boris' team did it so professionally. It was annoyingly good enough to make lefties retweet it angrily, it was annoyingly smart enough to engage Tory loyalists. Making it go viral. Plus, lovers of the movie shared it endlessly.
It will be seen as a model of its kind for future campaigns. It even got salience in the US, Oz and European media.0 -
Quite a lot, particularly in terms of any internal battles. Sub 200 and it's a horrendous night, the leadership has no place to hide, the party would have some very tough questions to ask itself. 250 and its not great, certainly, but they will have retained large chunks of the red wall, and can think that 'one more heave' may do it next time, it keeps the Corbynite wing strong even though it will be a loss.egg said:
Why are labour nervous, what have they got to losekle4 said:Whatever the actual lead is on the day - I'm guessing between 5-7% - the general feel of the parties to me seems to be that the Tories are not at all confident, even pessimistic, and Labour are nervous but putting on a braver face.
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