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Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.0 -
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
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High gilt rates would transfer wealth from the many to the few.eek said:
Actual interest rates will do our economy a world of good, remove a lot of zombie businesses and actually reveal the truth about the UK economy.alb1on said:
Callaghan. 17% gilt rate.Phil said:
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.SunnyJim said:
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.Phil said:
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.0 -
Small chance Zac may actually hold on?Mango said:
I'm expecting a miserable night overall, but have hopes (some, at least) of a momentary ray of sunshine as the quiet man is raucously dispatched.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Watching Goldsmith go down will be fun too. Perhaps he can get on with his eco-terrorism afterwards, in between Bollywood films.0 -
4 is equally unlikely. I think the truth is that unless the Tories win a majority we haven't a clue what is going to happen.Mexicanpete said:
6 and 7 won't happen. 5 is highly unlikely. You could suffix points 1 to 4 with dystopian disaster beckons. That would work!NorthofStoke said:I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left.
2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down.
3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue.
4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year.
5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum.
6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB.
7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
And Boris could well be throwing it away..0 -
If we get a hung parliament we will be doing all this again pretty much immediately.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
And we will end up repeatedly doing it until there is a parliamentary majority for a Brexit resolution.
One thing i'm sure of is that the Tories won't walk back in to the FTPA trap of being in government but not in power with the opposition blocking the exits.
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It is a little like the fire safety triangle. Remove any one of the three items of danger and catastrophe is averted.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.0 -
For those that are interested (trying not to spam). All things been well, all of this should be automatically updating itself on the night. It isn't designed to be a necessarily a "real time" results services, more how well is YouGov MRP actually doing, are the Tories really winning in the right areas, etc, and if so what the result will be. Thus, people can bet accordingly.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA0 -
Ipswich also ripe for pluckingargyllrs said:
Last of the low hanging fruit for the Tories in East Anglia. Other Labour seats will require very large swings in future GEsnunu2 said:
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and MidlandsCorrectHorseBattery said:
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedfordnunu2 said:
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊Andy_JS said:Bedford, YouGov MRP:
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%.
Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.0 -
Inflation risk gets priced into gilts/bonds all the time. The 70s gilt rates was a response to rampant inflation.alb1on said:
Complete rubbish. The UK controlled its currency in the 1970s and government borrowing costs did go through the roof due to the perceived risk of default. Nominal gilt yields reached 17% under Callaghan.Phil said:
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.IanB2 said:
The same could happen if Brexit turns bad.alb1on said:
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
Southern Europe’s problem was near term default risk. Gilt holders will always get £ back. They might be worth less due to inflation, but you’ll still get them back. € bond holders were worried about getting /nothing/. That’s an edge case that can never apply to gilts because we can in fact print if necessary.
Ironically, the ability to print if absolutely necessary prevents gilt rates from rising out of control during a crisis.0 -
More time for voters to go off Johnson .GIN1138 said:Anyone remember what the big deal was about having the election on 12th December rather than 5th December?
What has the Conservatives actually achieved with this extra week that they were absolutely insistent we had to have?
The Tories vote has held up despite his favourability going down but they should be concerned that his numbers are falling at the wrong time .0 -
Corbyn + Brexit = catastrophe squaredMexicanpete said:
It is a little like the fire safety triangle. Remove any one of the three items of danger and catastrophe is averted.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.0 -
Anyone ever known a general election with so few opinion polls? The last week of an election and virtual silence.0
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Much that I would love a return to all three parties arguing over social issues like gay marriage and minor differences in where / whom to tax / benefit, while all agreeing that a pro business liberal democracy under a capitalist system is the superior system, that isn't the choice here. And if it is very close, Labour certainly aren't going to pivot back to the middle, instead it will be one more heave with the winds of a global recession blowing that will get them into power.noneoftheabove said:
Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.0 -
Scotland could give us a Tory government against Remain's will!0
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Phil said:
Inflation risk gets priced into gilts/bonds all the time. The 70s gilt rates was a response to rampant inflation.
Southern Europe’s problem was near term default risk. Gilt holders will always get £ back. They might be worth less due to inflation, but you’ll still get them back. € bond holders were worried about getting /nothing/. That’s an edge case that can never apply to gilts because we can in fact print if necessary.
Ironically, the ability to print if absolutely necessary prevents gilt rates from rising out of control during a crisis.
What do you think will happen to inflation when Labour resort to printing to finance government spending?
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We are not going to need nuclear codes in the 6-9 months it will take to have a 2nd ref! We are just not. And if we are, we are fucked anyway.Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
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The only way the Tories can make progress in Remainia of SE England is through changes in the opposition vote and not losing their own remain voters. It is a little out of their control. I get the feeling the Tories beginning to panic.argyllrs said:
Last of the low hanging fruit for the Tories in East Anglia. Other Labour seats will require very large swings in future GEsnunu2 said:
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and MidlandsCorrectHorseBattery said:
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedfordnunu2 said:
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊Andy_JS said:Bedford, YouGov MRP:
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%.
Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.0 -
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?0
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absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usualCasino_Royale said:
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?Casino_Royale said:Charles said:
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixableCasino_Royale said:On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.1 -
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...0 -
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usualCasino_Royale said:
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?Casino_Royale said:Charles said:
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixableCasino_Royale said:On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.1 -
Nothing much, except, you know, she is working class.beentheredonethat said:
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
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I think Swindon North has declared early-ish in the last two elections and has been a decent guide to what's going on.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
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Does anybody have any (non piss take) ideas about what the tory "Space Command" will actually consist of?
https://spacewatch.global/2019/11/uk-conservative-party-election-pledge-well-set-up-a-uk-space-command/
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My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 2601 -
I am a centrist for radical change not tinkering. We can make radical improvements in our education and economy, with the environment at the forefront of those changes.FrancisUrquhart said:
Much that I would love a return to all three parties arguing over social issues like gay marriage and minor differences in where / whom to tax / benefit, while all agreeing that a pro business liberal democracy under a capitalist system is the superior system, that isn't the choice here. And if it is very close, Labour certainly aren't going to pivot back to the middle, instead it will be one more heave with the winds of a global recession blowing that will get them into power.noneoftheabove said:
Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.Nigelb said:No Brexit, no Johnson, no Corbyn. Is that too much to ask?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
If the parties keep choosing extremists and or incompetents and we keep getting stalemates, no-one should have sympathy for party fanboys moaning that we get nothing sorted.0 -
If I get chance, I will add functionality to my system to add new tabs that split by these regions / chart them....to see what the swings look like in those regions.CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 2600 -
Didn't we just have a few constituency polls showing the Tories holding on to several southern Remain seats?CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 2600 -
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Brilliant! Thank you.FrancisUrquhart said:For those that are interested (trying not to spam). All things been well, all of this should be automatically updating itself on the night. It isn't designed to be a necessarily a "real time" results services, more how well is YouGov MRP actually doing, are the Tories really winning in the right areas, etc, and if so what the result will be. Thus, people can bet accordingly.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA0 -
We need another N/S mainline. The existing lines are at capacity. In fact it’s worse than that, because the existing lines have to share both local commuter traffic & long distance traffic.malcolmg said:
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
With HS2 in place, the long distance traffic can move to HS2 and now you can triple the number of slower commuter trains on the existing lines. It’s a win-win for everyone.
Oh, plus we’ll be able to do proper maintenance at the weekends by closing big chunks of one of the lines if necessary, moving long distance traffic to the others. Something that’s not possible at the moment.
I don’t know why the marketing of HS2 has been so woeful. Everybody wins, including the users of existing lines that will never use HS2 in their lives.0 -
Re-labelling a couple of satellites ?Dura_Ace said:Does anybody have any (non piss take) ideas about what the tory "Space Command" will actually consist of?
https://spacewatch.global/2019/11/uk-conservative-party-election-pledge-well-set-up-a-uk-space-command/0 -
People who vote Tory never admit to their friends and family they are doing so.Alistair said:
(Especially if they want to secretly record them).0 -
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.0 -
That is stupid scaremongering as you have no evidence to support that outcome whatsoever. If and it is a big if JC does become PM he will not have a majority and will only be able to pass a budget that keeps the finances flowing with funding for more nurses doctors and police officers. The only laws he could pass would be in relation to the referendum and I seriously doubt he would get to renegotiate the deal. He would then be no confidenced and an election would take place after the referendum.ridaligo said:
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.1 -
Workington and Darlington are expected to declare early according to the PA list.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/0 -
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.Alistair said:
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.0 -
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 260
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
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How should these swing for HP and majority?Andy_JS said:
Workington and Darlington are expected to declare early according to the PA list.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/0 -
Corbyn won't use them. It's not relevant. We'd be like Germany.Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.0 -
He makes it up as he goes along. Also said the Tories would poll 37%.RobD said:
Didn't we just have a few constituency polls showing the Tories holding on to several southern Remain seats?CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 260
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HS2 was woeful from day 1 as they talked about speed and never talked about the capacity issues.Phil said:
We need another N/S mainline. The existing lines are at capacity. In fact it’s worse than that, because the existing lines have to share both local commuter traffic & long distance traffic.malcolmg said:
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
With HS2 in place, the long distance traffic can move to HS2 and now you can triple the number of slower commuter trains on the existing lines. It’s a win-win for everyone.
Oh, plus we’ll be able to do proper maintenance at the weekends by closing big chunks of one of the lines if necessary, moving long distance traffic to the others. Something that’s not possible at the moment.
I don’t know why the marketing of HS2 has been so woeful. Everybody wins, including the users of existing lines that will never use HS2 in their lives.
At least HS3 has the obvious piece that Leeds to Manchester is a painful journey that should take half the time it does due to Geography...1 -
Like they'd give Corbyn the actual codes.Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.0 -
Well if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Hope I am right.BluerBlue said:
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 260
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
315 or less seems to be the end of Johnson, so they can gain a few more seats and still be done.0 -
THIS....Casino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204709457273466880
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204710649890258946
Again the Tories have let Labour set the agenda and done very little to pull apart a lot of policies, just saying Commie e.g. Rent Caps, sound great, but are a terrible idea. There is loads of evidence of about this, including a Freakonomics episode.
Osborne was great at this for the Tories and before that New Labour. A new idea would be floated by the opposition and by tea time it would have had attacked.0 -
Evan Harris is still sorely missed.rural_voter said:
Dr Phil Hammond in his stand-up comedy is much more impressive than Molly Scott-Cato on what's wrong with the NHS. I'd rather have him design a 'green' healthcare system.alb1on said:
Molly Scott Cato is also possibly the most flaky candidate in the GE, even including Lord Buckethead. I am aware of her academic background but that does not excuse articles such as that from The Ecologist in 2009; https://theecologist.org/2009/sep/15/what-would-green-health-system-look.rural_voter said:
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Indeed, her background is 100% economics. Mine's science. The general population wouldn't know what the scientific method was if it bit them. It's very common for people to be good speakers and politicians who wouldn't have a clue what I was on about if I asked for a controlled double blind experiment.
I gather that the only scientist in the Commons was the former LD MP for Cambridge. He left in 2017.2 -
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.0 -
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.FrancisUrquhart said:
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.Alistair said:
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.0 -
Is the "moderate" position to unleash our nuclear arsenal at the earliest opportunity?Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
. 0 -
A Corbyn Government (and the Tories out) becomes credible on anything more than 270 seats for him. The SNP, we can safely say, will have at least 40.noneoftheabove said:
The chance of Labour & SNP having enough votes to win a VONC on their own is sub 3%. The vast majority of times we have a coalition it will play out much closer to the scenario I described.Casino_Royale said:
Corbyn, with the help of the SNP, would pass the budget he wants. As long as they get indyref2 they couldn’t care less.noneoftheabove said:
A wise man once said people decide on emotion rather than logic. I put it to you that your dislike of Corbyn is blinding you from the logic and practicalities of how a hung parliament would play out in reality.Casino_Royale said:
I think that’s wishful thinking.noneoftheabove said:
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.Casino_Royale said:
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.Xtrain said:Imagine a Corbyn government.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I don’t see that as being particularly fantastical.
That gives that Faustian pact 310 and only a handful short of an effective majority.
Mark me down as unconvinced on the 3% odds.0 -
Yes and what will he do? He can tell the sub commanders to not retaliate but he will be gone in nine months or have a democratic majority are we going to have a nuclear war in the next nine months?Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.0 -
“Vote for me! We’ll fuck the economy but at least we’ll find out how truly fucked we can be.”eek said:
Actual interest rates will do our economy a world of good, remove a lot of zombie businesses and actually reveal the truth about the UK economy.alb1on said:
Callaghan. 17% gilt rate.Phil said:
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.SunnyJim said:
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.Phil said:
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.0 -
Aberdeen West & KincardineAlistair said:
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.FrancisUrquhart said:
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.Alistair said:
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
Aberdeen West and Kincardine
Kincardine and West Aberdeen
Kincardine & Aberdeen West
West Aberdeen and Kincardine
West Aberdeen & Kincardine1 -
What are you worried he might do specifically?Casino_Royale said:
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.0 -
I am a working class lad with a DPhil from Oxford - at post grad level most students are from overseas or "non-traditional" backgrounds - I never had any public school poshos in any of my research groups while there.Mango said:
Nothing much, except, you know, she is working class.beentheredonethat said:
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
I put that down to history repeating itself.NorthofStoke said:I always seem to post to closed threads so re-posting these words of wisdom.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly:
1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/
2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
Generation Gullible, when left sitting on a patch of scorched earth where our economy used to be, will - perhaps - understand at that point.0 -
To play devil's advocate, the Tories may have been worried about attacking Corbyn and Labour too hard on this sort of thing because it might have fired up Labour leavers to vote Labour rather than abstain or even vote Tory. Perhaps this might have helped with Tory/Lib Dem undecideds but I get the feeling the Tories have played a low risk game and are essentially hoping that they do just enough to get home.FrancisUrquhart said:
THIS....Casino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204709457273466880
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204710649890258946
Again the Tories have let Labour set the agenda and done very little to pull apart a lot of policies, just saying Commie e.g. Rent Caps, sound great, but are a terrible idea. There is loads of evidence of about this, including a Freakonomics episode.
Osborne was great at this for the Tories and before that New Labour. A new idea would be floated by the opposition and by tea time it would have had attacked.0 -
Luckily lots of people now put the ons_id codes in as well. So you can match via those.Pulpstar said:
Aberdeen West & KincardineAlistair said:
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.FrancisUrquhart said:
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.Alistair said:
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
Aberdeen West and Kincardine
Kincardine and West Aberdeen
Kincardine & Aberdeen West
West Aberdeen and Kincardine
West Aberdeen & Kincardine0 -
From Reddit:
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.0 -
This comment in particularCasino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204710649890258946?s=20
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.0 -
Introduce mandatory TU recognition to the armed forces?edmundintokyo said:
What are you worried he might do specifically?Casino_Royale said:
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
Having said that, at least then McLuskey would insist on a decent level of military spend. Might be for the best, militarily speaking.0 -
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:From Reddit:
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire. 0 -
All those items can be pulled apart but could they be pulled apart in both a way that people could understand and see why it's a bad idea.MattW said:
I put that down to history repeating itself.NorthofStoke said:I always seem to post to closed threads so re-posting these words of wisdom.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly:
1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/
2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
Generation Gullible, when left sitting on a patch of scorched earth where our economy used to be, will - perhaps - understand at that point.
Yes share appropriation is bad but how do you argue that workers shouldn't have a share of the profits - which is what that argument would come down to.
0 -
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.Oswald said:
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.0 -
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.0
-
Two point is a fraction. 2/1RobD said:
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:From Reddit:
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.0 -
Ah, pedant mode.camel said:
Two point is a fraction. 2/1RobD said:
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:From Reddit:
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
0 -
You seem to be coping with Trump having authority over half the world's nuclear arsenal. Amazingly, the US has not nuked anyone yetCasino_Royale said:
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months. 0 -
Shared pedantry is the best kindRobD said:
Ah, pedant mode.camel said:
Two point is a fraction. 2/1RobD said:
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:From Reddit:
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
0 -
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?WhisperingOracle said:
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.Alistair said:
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.WhisperingOracle said:
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.eek said:Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.0 -
Please, somebody tell me the result of the election. I can't take this anymore.2
-
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.Casino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.0 -
Every would have seen through that "reach out" as an even bigger lie.Brom said:Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
0 -
Frustrate the ability of our security services to thwart terrorist plots or espionage threats by failing to promptly act on intelligence tip-offs, failing to deploy defensive assets in response to Russian aggression, mothballing, grounding or cannibalising large parts of the armed forces for mixed ideological/financial reasons, failing to cooperate or pass on critical information onto NATO allies, and refusing to take COBR decisions to deal with imminent threats to public safety unless they accord with his ideology.edmundintokyo said:
What are you worried he might do specifically?Casino_Royale said:
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.NorthofStoke said:
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?Dura_Ace said:
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.noneoftheabove said:
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
There is precedent for this. Look how he and has backroom team “helped” Remain during the 2016 EURef campaign, despite what the official stance was.0 -
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?FrancisUrquhart said:I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).0 -
Tory 60 seat majority.nunu2 said:Please, somebody tell me the result of the election. I can't take this anymore.
1 -
Damn, that's actually a brilliant idea. Something for the next election (which is hopefully a long way away)?Brom said:Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
0 -
@FrancisUrquhart
I think it’s worse than that. Many MPs (including Tory MPs) are now drones who parrot the party line and aren’t even capable of engaging in a battle of ideas.0 -
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.kamski said:
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?WhisperingOracle said:
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.Alistair said:
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.WhisperingOracle said:
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.eek said:Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.0 -
Your toilet seat perhaps?CorrectHorseBattery said:Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
3 -
Yes.paulyork64 said:
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?FrancisUrquhart said:I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).0 -
Your post says it all really. You appear to be attempting to say that perceptions about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party are just perceptions and it is really about being anti-Israel, and, "oh, we are no worse than the dastardly Tories".kamski said:
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.Oswald said:
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
That really isn't it. There is significant genuine anti-Semitism in the Labour Party since the hard left have infiltrated it. It is NOT just a hatred of the state of Israel, it is a hatred of Jews and their association with global capitalism. The infamous mural that Jeremy Corbyn originally had no problem with illustrates this prejudice and Corbyn's comment about "they" not understanding British irony. Trying to pretend "we are no worse than the Tories" does not let the Labour Party and its leader off the hook.1 -
It does and it doesn’t. The Tories have made the same mistakes yet this time the Labour campaign has failed, the doorstep conversations seem worse, the debates worse and theAlistair said:
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.Casino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.
Rallies are short on numbers. Corbyn looks 2 years older and the public seem 2 years less enthused. For the Tory mistakes that may well be the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory majority this time.1 -
NW Durham has moved from Lab 43%, Con 34% to Lab 41%, 36%.0
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Is this the latest YouGov MRP data? It looks like the earlier version.tlg86 said:
I have a sheet comparing the two:isam said:
Have you done a spreadsheet of the new MRP?Andy_JS said:Batley & Spen has narrowed from Lab 44%, Con 36% to Lab 44%, Con 39%.
Interesting that certain demographics must have moved towards the Tories over the last two weeks, against the overall national trend.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun
Lots of columns, share then rank and then some differences between the parties.0 -
If only I had Dom’s number...BluerBlue said:
Damn, that's actually a brilliant idea. Something for the next election (which is hopefully a long way away)?Brom said:Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
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Predictions plural being the key word here. I'm sure that if you predict often enough and with enough variation you might just get one of them right. It's genius.BluerBlue said:
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.CorrectHorseBattery said:My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 260
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.0 -
Agreed, we have the right to call out Israel's mistreatment of Palistine and Paelsinians without being called antisemitic. I am equally critical of terrorists who attack Israel and Israelis in the name of Palestine.kamski said:
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.Oswald said:
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
I also agree that there are too many on the left who bring out the Palistinian flag when a protest has nothing to do with Palestine or Israel.0 -
It's interesting to see how mild the labour equivalent story below is..eek said:
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.kamski said:
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?WhisperingOracle said:
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.Alistair said:
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.WhisperingOracle said:
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.eek said:Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.0 -
Thanks for responding thoughtfully. I think you are right about what Labour should do tactically...seems little sign of it under Corbyn. And I have a residual frustration that there is no real attempt to listen and learn from the far left; it is much easier to blame complaints as 'smears' rather than thinking hard.kamski said:
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.Oswald said:
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
On the Conservatives and racism, you are arguably right they are given more slack (for a whole host of reasons) but you are even more right that Labour complaining doesn't help Labour solve their problem.0 -
I can't work out if they are concerned that Corbyn will nuke somewhere or won't nuke somewhere.Beibheirli_C said:
You seem to be coping with Trump having authority over half the world's nuclear arsenal. Amazingly, the US has not nuked anyone yet
The Shadow SecDef seems actually seems to have an interest in the welfare of those serving rather than making grandiloquent announcements about the names of vessels to be launched 20 years hence.0 -
fab, thanks.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes.paulyork64 said:
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?FrancisUrquhart said:I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).0 -
I think this has been more of a Brexit election than 2017, for leave voters anyway. Not for remain voters though, which is unfortunate for the Lib Dems.Alistair said:
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.Casino_Royale said:David has written a superb thread:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.0 -
Perth and North Perthshire has moved from SNP 46% Con 37% to SNP 44% Con 41%.0
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It'd be quite something if Piers lost it for the Tories0
