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“Shit. Must dismiss. Question their motives. Question their sincerity.eek said:
Joined September 2019? Who is funding them on the quiet?Casino_Royale said:https20
Err... Err...um.... WHO FUNDS YOU?!
(Yep, that’ll do it)”0 -
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia.Foxy said:
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.Nigel_Foremain said:
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.Foxy said:
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.eek said:
I think he really enjoys campaigning..DecrepiterJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time.
I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
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Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
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The Lib Dems look to be very close in a whole load of non-London seats like Winchester. I don't think they're going to be doing quite as badly as many people are saying.0
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seconded - Last time I did it I ended up doing my DPhil and moving to Denmark! I've jumped off the cliff a few times and it's always led somewhere better for me!MarqueeMark said:May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.
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Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.0 -
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But why are they recovering? I don’t get itStuartDickson said:
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.Alistair said:I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
Everything is on a knife edge in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1204535337021792258?s=190 -
The latter.LucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.0 -
Morning all
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem0 -
Those lines about Mick Jagger.Fysics_Teacher said:
First two lines of the chorus I think. The fist two lines are:Anabobazina said:
Er, that’s not the song’s title, it’s its opening two lines.Fysics_Teacher said:Speaking of vanity and quotations of a sort, my favourite song title (not the same as the title of my favourite song) is “You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”.
The song is called You’re So Vain.
Son of a gun
You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht.0 -
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..0 -
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.1 -
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.0 -
- ”... left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.”Alistair said:
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But why are they recovering? I don’t get itStuartDickson said:
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.Alistair said:I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
Everything is on a knife edge in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1204535337021792258?s=19
Nah.
The explanation is simpler, sinister and predictable. Nothing to do with left/right/centre or Yes/No or party leaders.0 -
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.IanB2 said:
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
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Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.Casino_Royale said:
The latter.LucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,1 -
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.kamski said:
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia.Foxy said:
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.Nigel_Foremain said:
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.Foxy said:
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.eek said:
I think he really enjoys campaigning..DecrepiterJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time.
I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.0 -
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC.nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
Apparently on the same milk round ??
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Crossrail is a no brainer as is HS2 and loads of other rail infrastructure projects. Thank you for your service!Casino_Royale said:
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?Casino_Royale said:Charles said:
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixableCasino_Royale said:On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.1 -
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flawsMexicanpete said:
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know0 -
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
Dr Fox,
"I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel."
You can extend it to his politics. Marxism believes that if man is left to his own devices, he will naturally organise things well for the benefit of all mankind.
Only the nasty people - the Fascists, Tories, non-party members, and generally everyone but the 'enlightened' can stop them. That's why democracy is so bad unless the enlightened candidate are selected first.
It also means that the party members must sort out the wheat from the chaff. Anyone who isn't fully for them is definitely against them. I've no doubt Jezza and some of his colleagues mean well, but their certainty makes them dangerous.
Better a lying buffoon than a Corbyn.2 -
I saw this this morning and it's so good I've spent 5 minutes hunting my twitter feed for itLucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
https://twitter.com/cafernblue/status/12044928970029588493 -
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.TudorRose said:
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.WhisperingOracle said:
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.IanB2 said:
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
Labour and LD need to set up a vote exchange between Esher and Chingford asap!1 -
0
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Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flawsMexicanpete said:
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know0 -
0
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Can someone whip up a quick comparison to show how the Scottish seats have moved from the last YouGov MRP. Clicking around there seem to have been some significant shifts.0
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Yes, I see the LD's in Esher are describing Raab falling as one of the now infamous "Portillo moments".IanB2 said:
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.WhisperingOracle said:
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.IanB2 said:
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..0 -
It is reality but who knowsMexicanpete said:
Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flawsMexicanpete said:
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know0 -
IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself includedIanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
1 -
Thanks.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Crossrail is a no brainer as is HS2 and loads of other rail infrastructure projects. Thank you for your service!Casino_Royale said:
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?Casino_Royale said:Charles said:
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixableCasino_Royale said:On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.0 -
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.wooliedyed said:Morning all
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
0 -
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
I was helping you out with my appalling grammar. It genuinely is not my fault but being a technophobe is!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is reality but who knowsMexicanpete said:
Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flawsMexicanpete said:
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Anyway final analysis. A comfortable Johnson majority which he really doesn't deserve. Have a good day G.0 -
IDS isn't that bright. And a lot of people in Chingford want Brexit done for, not done.HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
I can see it now: HY and his army of country-boy squirrel botherers in pitched battles in Epping Forest with a bunch of Hackney hippies!IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.2 -
From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.0 -
You should be in Bolsover, slacker.HYUFD said:
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself includedIanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.Alistair said:
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.TudorRose said:
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
I also don't know how they model that differentially for each constituency; how would they know the threshold level at which an individual voter would decide to use their vote tactically? And how do they model whether or not an individual voter knows that the threshold level had been achieved?0 -
Generalising, your vote is likely to turnout whether you go or not.HYUFD said:
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself includedIanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
And youMexicanpete said:
I was helping you out with my appalling grammar. It genuinely is not my fault but being a technophobe is!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is reality but who knowsMexicanpete said:
Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flawsMexicanpete said:
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.SouthamObserver said:The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Anyway final analysis. A comfortable Johnson majority which he really doesn't deserve. Have a good day G.0 -
The Tories are still winning around 70% of Leavers, Labour less than 50% of RemainersIanB2 said:
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
There’s a nice video of on Guardian online. She seems sassy. Used to go clubbing down Charlie Chans and likes UK Garage. Propa Laarden chick.HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
The Tories have the same lead in Bolsover as in Chingford with Yougov MRPbigjohnowls said:
You should be in Bolsover, slacker.HYUFD said:
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself includedIanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
It’s a Remain seat old bean.HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
1 -
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.wills66 said:
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.wooliedyed said:Morning all
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.0 -
Ladbrokes site was down for a while and now they seem to have taken down all their seat betting0
-
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.LucyMorales said:
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.Casino_Royale said:
The latter.LucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,0 -
Labour sending patrol boats and border guards to the River Ching.HYUFD said:
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself includedIanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
A lull before the storm, at the moment.
The weather's set fair so far today here, too.0 -
Scottish voters shat it?StuartDickson said:
- ”... left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.”Alistair said:
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But why are they recovering? I don’t get itStuartDickson said:
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.Alistair said:I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
Everything is on a knife edge in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1204535337021792258?s=19
Nah.
The explanation is simpler, sinister and predictable. Nothing to do with left/right/centre or Yes/No or party leaders.
Again.0 -
Nevertheless between us Sandy and I have probably answered the OP's question. Yours is a characteristic non sequitur.HYUFD said:
The Tories are still winning around 70% of Leavers, Labour less than 50% of RemainersIanB2 said:
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.1 -
Sean is still hungover.WhisperingOracle said:A lull before the storm, at the moment.
1 -
Scott Adams said McCain would win.StuartDickson said:
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.LucyMorales said:
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.Casino_Royale said:
The latter.LucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Scott Adams backed Romney because he didn't like Obama's stance of drug reform (as in he thought Obama was too strict on drugs)
Scott Adams stated about 5 different positions on what he though would happen in 2016.
Scott Adams is an absolute charlatan who'll say anything for attention and has often taken opposite positions at different points and then claimed that he backed the winning side as evidence of his brilliance. HE even lampshades it by pointing out he also adopted the other position as well.0 -
It was 50 50 Remain LeaveAnabobazina said:
It’s a Remain seat old bean.HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
Plenty of Burrowes posters when I was there SundayAndy_JS said:
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.0 -
That's interesting because I have during this campaign. Hmmm.TudorRose said:
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.Alistair said:
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.TudorRose said:
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?0 -
51/49 I am reliably informed.HYUFD said:
It was 50 50 Remain LeaveAnabobazina said:
It’s a Remain seat old bean.HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
0 -
Imagine a Corbyn government.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?0 -
Also, for some reason, Labour activists don't use Corbyn's criticisms of Saudi Arabia as an excuse to accuse Muslim MPs of dual loyalties and then hound them out of the party.Oswald said:
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.kamski said:
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia.Foxy said:
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.Nigel_Foremain said:
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.Foxy said:
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.eek said:
I think he really enjoys campaigning..DecrepiterJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time.
I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.0 -
Have he ever posted on PB?Alistair said:
Scott Adams said McCain would win.StuartDickson said:
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.LucyMorales said:
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.Casino_Royale said:
The latter.LucyMorales said:
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?Casino_Royale said:One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Scott Adams backed Romney because he didn't like Obama's stance of drug reform (as in he thought Obama was too strict on drugs)
Scott Adams stated about 5 different positions on what he though would happen in 2016.
Scott Adams is an absolute charlatan who'll say anything for attention and has often taken opposite positions at different points and then claimed that he backed the winning side as evidence of his brilliance. HE even lampshades it by pointing out he also adopted the other position as well.1 -
We don't of course know. It's possible they could create a national model of willingness/likelihood to vote tactically, by both VI and demographic, and then tweak their individual seat results accordingly. Certainly the LibDem MRP projection has improved in a lot of Tory facing southern seats, but there is still the overall commentary from YouGov that their model is weak at picking up seat-specific campaigning. It would be nice to believe there is a level of tactical voting that the model hasn't detected, but I do remember suggesting something similar in 2017, and it didn't come good, for the LDs at least.TudorRose said:
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.Alistair said:
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.TudorRose said:
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).SandyRentool said:
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.Chris said:Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
I also don't know how they model that differentially for each constituency; how would they know the threshold level at which an individual voter would decide to use their vote tactically? And how do they model whether or not an individual voter knows that the threshold level had been achieved?0 -
A similar amount to that which Boris has at his disposal after no deal Brexit in December 2020. In other words, zip!Xtrain said:Imagine a Corbyn government.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?0 -
What's your prediction now please Andy?Andy_JS said:
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
I want a Tory majority but I think Boris has been poor this campaign and I'm nervous he's blown it. I think part of Boris's appeal is his willingness to speak his mind and be affably daft but they've gagged him and he now looks a bit of a stuttering idiot.
I still think it'll be a Tory majority but perhaps as small as 15.
0 -
Trouble is, he looked the same when he spoke his mind.Fenster said:
What's your prediction now please Andy?Andy_JS said:
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.IanB2 said:
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.Sean_F said:
Kensington, likely Hornsey & Wood Green, perhaps Enfield Southgate.IanB2 said:
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.Sean_F said:
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
I want a Tory majority but I think Boris has been poor this campaign and I'm nervous he's blown it. I think part of Boris's appeal is his willingness to speak his mind and be affably daft but they've gagged him and he now looks a bit of a stuttering idiot.
I still think it'll be a Tory majority but perhaps as small as 15.0 -
But, the BXP standing down in Tory held seats and not elsewhere exaggerates the potency of that lead in Tory targets.Sean_F said:
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.wills66 said:
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.wooliedyed said:Morning all
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.0 -
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.Xtrain said:Imagine a Corbyn government.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?0 -
Ed West in fir MRP
LD: 34 SNP: 34
Ed WEst in Yesterday's MRP
LD:41 SNP: 30
Lots of highly significant changes like that in Scotland. Maybe I will win my Ed West bet after all.0 -
All the Con/SNP marginals seem to have shifted in the SNP's favour.
As I say, a knife edge. As likely SCons end up on 15 seats as they end up on 4.0 -
To be honest a majority around 12-15 (i.e same as Cameron in 2015) would probably be enough to get Brexit through and a full 5 year stint.0
-
What is important now is the Labour vote. The Tories look rock solid at the 43% Theresa got, Labour are probably in the 33-35 range but need to be in the 36-38 range with 1 day to go. Winning back Tory switchers in the North and Midlands looks tough work with their 2nd ref policy, the new voters are concentrated in seats they hold, the Lib Dems are squeezed as much as they can be in the marginals. On paper it looks an incredibly tough task.
If Labour cannot win round those extra voters today then it will be a Con majority and a disaster for Corbyn in an election Labour would have surely been the largest party under a half decent leader.0 -
MRP gives the general flavour, but it was wrong in 43 seats last time.Alistair said:Ed West in fir MRP
LD: 34 SNP: 34
Ed WEst in Yesterday's MRP
LD:41 SNP: 30
Lots of highly significant changes like that in Scotland. Maybe I will win my Ed West bet after all.
Whats going on with Glasgow and the Labour resurgence there ? Seems err odd.0 -
Not quite up there with Katy Hopkins with a sausage up her bahookie, nevertheless..
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1204681563021234177?s=200 -
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?HYUFD said:
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit doneAnabobazina said:
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
1 -
Oswald said:
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.kamski said:
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia.Foxy said:
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.Nigel_Foremain said:
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.Foxy said:
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.eek said:
I think he really enjoys campaigning..DecrepiterJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time.
I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
well, yes, I should have specified criticism of their foreign policies, and in terms of UK policy whether we should be selling weapons to countries that bomb civilians.
plus I was questioning who has the obsession with Israel/Palestine - not whether there is or should be evenhandedness.0 -
Ah yes all those Republicans coming out for Hillary really made a difference........nobody cares what the establishment thinks.Casino_Royale said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1204686262927601664
Hmmm this is very different from the MRP0 -
Molly Scott Cato is also possibly the most flaky candidate in the GE, even including Lord Buckethead. I am aware of her academic background but that does not excuse articles such as that from The Ecologist in 2009; https://theecologist.org/2009/sep/15/what-would-green-health-system-look.rural_voter said:
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.IanB2 said:
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.HYUFD said:
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock upAndy_JS said:The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.0 -
Spreadsheet with the new YouGov MRP figures, including SNP and PC:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=01 -
Too many factors are in play. I suspect the first time people will know whats really going on is at 2am on Friday morning as the bulk of the results start to arrive.argyllrs said:
That's the problem with this GE. Same for a lot of marginals in midlands and north.Alistair said:All the Con/SNP marginals seem to have shifted in the SNP's favour.
As I say, a knife edge. As likely SCons end up on 15 seats as they end up on 4.0 -
But there was no BXP 2 years ago and there appears to be a small shift away from The Tories in Labour seats they can’t win, very little change in safe Tory seats and an improvement in marginals across Wales and the North. A 9 point lead could easily be a majority of 50 rather than 30.Casino_Royale said:
But, the BXP standing down in Tory held seats and not elsewhere exaggerates the potency of that lead in Tory targets.Sean_F said:
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.wills66 said:
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.wooliedyed said:Morning all
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.
0 -
I dont know what constituency that is?Nigelb said:
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC.nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
Apparently on the same milk round ??0 -
As a saver 9/1 310-319 tory seats and 14/1 300-309 looks good value..gives a combined 6.75/1 for 300-319 with Sky betBrom said:From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.0 -
Has Boris Johnson considered not hiding in a fridge.
Or is this a classic Dom move. The crucial "in favour of hiding in a fridge" demographic being actives this morning?1 -
Yougov's MRP reflects that FT article. The Panelbase MRP doesn't.nunu2 said:
Ah yes all those Republicans coming out for Hillary really made a difference........nobody cares what the establishment thinks.Casino_Royale said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1204686262927601664
Hmmm this is very different from the MRP
And the important bit there is the last bit from the Labour Candidate. This election is very much all or nothing - if the Labour vote actually votes it's likely to be a hung Parliament if not it could be a Tory landslide.0 -
And Redwood does not look much safer in Wokingham on MRP. I would be stunned if he lost but if Raab is vulnerable then so may be Redwood.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes, I see the LD's in Esher are describing Raab falling as one of the now infamous "Portillo moments".IanB2 said:
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.WhisperingOracle said:
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.IanB2 said:
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..1 -
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.Casino_Royale said:
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.Xtrain said:Imagine a Corbyn government.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.0 -
Nigelb said:nunu2 said:eek said:Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which
You live close to it, I think, so I'll ask........do y think Tories will take Dagenham and Rainham?isam said:0 -
I will have some of that. I think sub 310 is next to impossible unless the Lab vote is 40% but that 9/1 is good on 310-319 which is probably the worst ‘realistic’ result for the Tories.timmo said:
As a saver 9/1 310-319 tory seats and 14/1 300-309 looks good value..gives a combined 6.75/1 for 300-319 with Sky betBrom said:From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.0 -
'All ur kulture's gonnae be eroded awae'
https://twitter.com/TamsellicsonIII/status/1204519519760396294?s=200 -
Guiseley is in Pudsey constituency. >.>nunu2 said:
I dont know what constituency that is?Nigelb said:
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC.nunu2 said:
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?eek said:
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.Alanbrooke said:
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
Apparently on the same milk round ??0
