Having a play around some constituencies it looks quite tight. Getting out the vote looks crucial, as ever. I still think the Christmas Party factor will bite, but I’m not sure who.

Lots of motivation to vote on all side.
Put a few quid on 70-80% turnout

nunu2 said:

Byronic said:

Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

Catastrophe.

The country is fucked

Seriously, the level of hysteria on here is totally disproportionate

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Henrietta said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?

I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.

That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.

You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.

It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.

This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.

Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.

You needed have only posted the final sentence.

Donkey. Red rosette. Eye-ore!

AlastairMeeks said:

I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, for those averring that voters have made up their minds:

https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1204494393824235521?s=21

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr

Really? That's what would sway people who have been undecided up until now? I just don't understand people.

El_Capitano said:

New data live. Get in!

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Digging around a bit, it’s a lot better for the LibDems than it appears. They are still in contention in a lot of their target seats. Bearing in mind the model’s self-confessed weakness in identifying seat-specific effects, the LDs could still surprise on the upside, and so take Bozo’s majority down.

So Boris will have effectively restored the situation to status ante quo before May threw the majority away in 2017.

Good grief.

Surprised its as high as 28. Take that all day.

Razedabode said:

nunu2 said:

Byronic said:

Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

Catastrophe.

The country is fucked

Seriously, the level of hysteria on here is totally disproportionate

I posted a summary of the PB Tory alert level earlier in this thread.

Paging rcs....

Blimey it’s tight.

Which seats change?

I see that they have Chuka closing in in Westminster & London, 38% to 32% but within margin of error.

It shows swingback to LD in Scottish seats, except NE Fife, which is a tossup.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Me thinks it's going to be like 1992. It's definitely not looking very 1983

You think you think you think. Noone knows..

Beibheirli_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.

I’ve been too busy then too ill to get an independent sense of what is going on. There’s huge dissatisfaction at the available choice and that’s as much as I’ve picked up.

noneoftheabove said:

How long can Johnson keep a majority of 28 together? 18 months? Less?

As long as it is long enough to get us past the Brexit date of January 31st that is all that matters.

How on earth do the Tories only get a 28 majority with a nine point poll lead? That makes no sense.

Range 311 to 367 seats
Wales only 10 Tories, completely out of line with the Wales barometer

Betfair 1.46 overall

Beibheirli_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.

Which way?

The Conservatives could be wiped out in northern scotland.
Only a predicted strong Labour revival keeps the SNP seats lower.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=MRP_26_Nov_2019

Byronic said:

Pound off a cliff. Just the beginning.

Down less than one tenth of a percent against of the US dollar.

Exceptionally small cliff

Tory target seat #101 Bradford South has become a toss up.

.. but Luciana Berger well behind in Finchley & Golders Green

SouthamObserver said:

How on earth do the Tories only get a 28 majority with a nine point poll lead? That makes no sense.

I would say it’s about as cautious a seat tally as you can get with a 9 point lead. I still think 6 or maybe 5 would get a majority.

The whole of North Wales a tossup. Including the previously blue-leaning Wrexham.

nunu2 said:

numbertwelve said:

Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.

I think people need to calm down.

The direction of travel is clear. If labour are up another 2% on election day, that means a hung Parliament

And in 2017 the MRP showed a lower seat count for the Tories than what they achieved. So there’s so many ifs and buts in this.

A slim Tory victory is essentially what it’s predicting and essentially what I think a lot of us have been saying for some time. I thought the 50+ majority stuff was always a bit of guff.

Lanark & Hamilton East is now predicted to be Conservative by 1%.

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

Catastrophe.

The catastrophe is a Labour majority. That isn’t happening. A close to 10 point lead will deliver the Tories a handy majority. Johnson will be free to launch his assault on the constitution.

The Tories like to pretend a Corbyn majority is likely when it never has been.

The Truth is a Boris majority is likely. Tories naturally delight at the prospect of a blank cheque.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Henrietta said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?

I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.

That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.

You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.

It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.

This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.

Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.

f***ing brilliant post. These Tories hate everything good about Britain.

Bedford is a toss up now - identical ranges for Lab and Tory.

OGH vote could be the one that decides the outcome - Buffoon or Magic Marxist?

Kensington going Labour seems unlikely to me...

That hexagon map on the YouGov seat page is terrible. Ross, Skye & Lochaber is not south of Glasgow North-West even after 10 cans of Tennents.

AlastairMeeks said:

Beibheirli_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.

I’ve been too busy then too ill to get an independent sense of what is going on. There’s huge dissatisfaction at the available choice and that’s as much as I’ve picked up.

There is also real anger and desire to end austerity. That is behind the BBCQT hostility to the Lib Dems. Apart from Brexit BoZo has little to offer.

argyllrs said:

Lots of motivation to vote on all side.
Put a few quid on 70-80% turnout

In December?

If the turnout is that high, Boris will have a hefty majority.

El_Capitano said:

Lib Dems gain South Cambs, St Albans, Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam. Lose Brecon & Radnorshire, North Norfolk.

You can add Guildford. The MRP does not handle local factors well, and Guildford has them in abundance.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, for those averring that voters have made up their minds:

https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1204494393824235521?s=21

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr

It's women Johnson needs to worry about, I think.

As I was saying earlier.

Bozo has ducked Neil and fucked up on the NHS photo. Driving a bulldozer doesn’t really cut it by way of compensation.

Byronic said:

NorthofStoke said:

I think the tone of Johnston on the last day could effect 20 seats.

He surely has to come out and make a passionate speech about the NHS. Maybe make some cast-iron guaranteee (copyright D Cameron) about how he won't privatise it.

Ramming a JCB into fake bricks aint gonna cut it,

That stunt looked pathetic to anyone whose not a Bozo fan . Coupled with his photo gate incident it’s not a good look .

He just looks like he’s not taking things seriously.

peter_from_putney said:

Someone on PB (sorry I can't remember who) posted up the link enabling the earlier YouGov MRP's detailed data and forecast result for every seat to be downloaded. Does anyone know please whether this same information is available for this updated MRP?

Yes - https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

TudorRose said:

Beibheirli_C said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.

Which way?

Given the horrible choice of leaders, the splitting of Left/Right across Leave/Remain, the collapse of Westminster parties in Scotland, I am expecting the result to be highly unpredictable. I have no way of knowing in which direction, but the old models and assumptions, UNS etc will not be much use this time around. I also dislike the way the MRP takes a national view and then "morphs" it on to constituency level based on a handful (630?) of voters questioned, a proportion of whom are self-selected like people on here who do YouGov panels.

So much has changed. The models have never been tested like this, but never forget that "computer modelling" is too often a way of saying "guesstimate".

Thursday at 10pm will be interesting

(BTW - my own view is Boris with a majority of 10, but I would prefer -10)

RobinWiggs said:

So Boris will have effectively restored the situation to status ante quo before May threw the majority away in 2017.

Good grief.

Given that he’s no better at campaigning than she was, wouldn’t that be fair?

ReggieCide said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

If the Lib Dems gain a decent number of affluent English seats and Jo Swinson loses hers, it would be a good result for them in the longer term. Choosing her was a disastrous decision.

They've got previous, though not many quality runners available, then who has?

I think she's okay. Even the Revoke platform would've been okay if she'd explained herself better and toughed it out. But it has become clear that LibDem members of the Cameron coalition are tainted and the party should've picked a leader who's untainted,eg. Layla Moran.

I just tried to show Bozo the MRP but he took my phone off me and put it in his pocket.

Looking at the tossups

Con vs Ind - East Devon
Con vs LD - Winchester, Esher
Con vs Lab - Kensington, Dagenham, Hendon, Bedford, Clwyd S, Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Aberconwy, Wolverhampton SW, Gedling, Lincoln, Grimsby, Bradford S, Stockton S, Sedgefield, Bolton NE, Bury N
Con vs SNP - Ayr, East Ren, Lanark, Aberdeen S, Ochil, Gordon, Moray
Lab vs SNP - Rutherglen, Glasgow E
LD vs SNP - NE Fife
3 way marginal - Ynys Mon

Workington now leans Lab but Con just ahead in Bolsover.

Mysticrose said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, for those averring that voters have made up their minds:

https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1204494393824235521?s=21

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr

Really? That's what would sway people who have been undecided up until now? I just don't understand people.

Yes. I've had lots of people talking about it. The NHS really matters to people and a sick child ... you couldn't have got a worse possible closing meme for Johnson.

When the post-mortem of this election is written I think that will be the moment when Johnson lost it.

Like Kinnock at Sheffield.

It could be. Or Brown in Rochdale, or Callaghan on his return from Guadeloupe.

But the night is young. We're not even in Wednesday yet.

Byronic said:

Pound off a cliff. Just the beginning.

Er... That's a catastrophic 0.5% cliff.

It fell 10% overnight on the EU Ref outcome and we appear to have survived.

Stop being such a drama queen!