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The distinct advantage of Corbyn over Johnson is his zero probability of a majority.AlastairMeeks said:
You have no answer to this inconvenient but highly relevant fact. Boris Johnson is a clear menace to the country, just as Jeremy Corbyn is. Only your shrill mania prevents you seeing this.Byronic said:
You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.AlastairMeeks said:
One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.Byronic said:
Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.Jonathan said:
Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.
Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.
It should be no contest.0 -
Boris Johnson is friends with Taki Theodorocopulos and his other pal Darius Guppy writes for Richard Spencer.Mexicanpete said:
I agree with your second paragraph. I would also agree with it if you substituted Corbyn for Boris and Stalinists for English Defence League supporters.Byronic said:
Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.Jonathan said:
Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.
Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.
It should be no contest.
Abuse away!0 -
Prob not the ideal time to post itCorrectHorseBattery said:
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Majority of only 28.
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Richard_Tyndall said:
Hardly surprising unfortunately. It is in the wild bird population and emerges into the domestic bird population with frightening regularity. I have almost got to the point where I don't bother removing the isolation protection from my chickens and ducks anymore as I pretty quickly have to reinstall it all. Very depressingCorrectHorseBattery said:
Worrying given the number of Xmas birds in that area. I saw my own turkey being taken off to meet his end yesterday afternoon.0 -
Pass the Refreshers.0
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My prediction was 40 to 50.0
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Guido has great sources
It's Tory maj of 30. Fuck. We are inches from disaster1 -
Gentlemen. Start your engines...
60 seconds to go.0 -
Forex sites saying MRP has con maj 28.0
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Err.. ok.Jonathan said:
Disagree.Casino_Royale said:
We don’t have this choice at this election.Jonathan said:
If you feel that way, deny both a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.Jonathan said:
Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.
Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.
It isn’t even a difficult choice.
It would result in another gridlocked parliament and a No Deal Brexit.
You’re still wrong, though.0 -
I agree there is a long and honorable tradition of English radicalism, from the Levellers and Diggers to the Tolpuddle Martyrs and Chartists, the Abolitionists and the Pro-Boers through to modern times. Corbyn is at the heart of this tradition.OnlyLivingBoy said:
That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.Casino_Royale said:
I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.Henrietta said:
Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
For example, Thomas Paine's books were massive sellers in their day, and still read well today. The Rights of Man sold possibly a million copies, when the population of England was less than 10 million people.0 -
28. Even worse
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Didn't model. NOT YOUGOV.Drutt said:Forex sites saying MRP has con maj 28.
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Rumour of 28 now.0
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Here. We. Go.0
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I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.0
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68kle4 said:I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.
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68kle4 said:I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.
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F5 F5 F50
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Tories are f##ked.0
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TORY MAJORITY OF 28.0
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Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Mwahahahaha Hung Parliament!0
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Oh bollocks though 68 was the new number!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Boris clever? So the rumour that he was a Skullion Scholar at Oxford is untrue?Byronic said:
Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.Jonathan said:
Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.
Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.
It should be no contest.0 -
Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.
Catastrophe.-1 -
If only we all had your impartiality and objectivity Casino! FWIW Boris took it to a new level when he acted unlawfully. Should have been sacked then and there. No way back after that.Casino_Royale said:
You’re a good guy, Jonathan. I like you and I wish the Labour Party had more like you.Jonathan said:The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.
However, one of things that drives you is a pathological detestation of the Conservative Party, your lifelong enemy.
It is so obvious how this comes out in your most partisan form, and I know it isn’t really you.
You’re a thinker.0 -
That's a surprising comment.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1204520944024346627
It's going to be a Hung Parliament.0 -
delete-1
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Labour have made a lot of progress0
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MRP Con Maj = 280
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Didn't expect LDs to rise from 12 to 15.0
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Pound off a cliff. Just the beginning.0
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Thats because he was in a hung parliament and hostage to the ERG and trying to get to the election!Jonathan said:
It really doesn’t. Sacking the left wing of his party, benching Hunt and appointing people like Raab, Patel and Mogg to the cabinet point to another direction.Casino_Royale said:
Nope, everything we know about Boris’s personality and past record tells us he wants to ditch the ERG and do a practical deal with the EU, and sell it as a huge success..Nigelb said:
No it’s not.Casino_Royale said:
No, it’s spot on.Jonathan said:
So wrongCasino_Royale said:
We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.Artist said:
A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.marke0903 said:NEW MRP model from Focaldata:
CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1
CON majority 24
It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.
Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.
It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.
The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
You are making assumptions about large majority Johnson government which are heroically rose tinted. Some might say delusional.
Obvs.0 -
I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.4
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Of course 28 majority means just 14 seats over the 326 winning mark.0
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MOE also means it could be 60 majority.Andy_JS said:0 -
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So a 9 point lead indicates a small majority.
7 looks like a Hung Parliament - and Labour look to be on the move.0 -
Nine points ahead. So nothing has changed?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
So YouGov are saying 9% is now only just barely enough....last MRP you had to get down to 6-7% before it was Hung Parliament time.0
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Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.
I think people need to calm down.1 -
How long can Johnson keep a majority of 28 together? 18 months? Less?0
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Eh??FrancisUrquhart said:delete
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Down from 11 with YouGov right? Or was it 10?RobD said:
Nine points ahead. So nothing has changed?CorrectHorseBattery said:
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They needed a better manifesto.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories are f##ked.
42-43% is not enough to win a majority in the present times, they need more.0 -
And yet polls have barely moved, as an average, in several weeks.
I make so many predictions, but I think the last one I made was Tory majority of about 35. They'd take that, or 28 for that matter, but there's no doubt the MRP will give Labour supporters a shot in the arm, belief that they can do this, they just need to outperform the polls a little rather than a lot. They could still do this.
Pleasant night to all.0 -
Labour get a gain in Putney.0
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Could be BXP being silly buggers in Labour seats.FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov are saying 9% is now only just barely enough....last MRP you had to get down to 6-7% before it was Hung Parliament time.
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As expected, Labour are up 2% at the expense of the LDs. Tories static on 43%.
Con 43%
Lab 34%
LD 12%0 -
The actual headline voting % haven't changed all that much (9 point lead?)0
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What's that smell?
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28 means an effective majority of around 34 once the shinners and speakers are taken into account.0
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Considering that doesn't even take into account Tactical Voting, this election is tight.
As one or two of us have been suggesting
And that's a clear and definite shift to Labour.
Cons will be a bit worried tonight. If they're not in denial.1 -
Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.Casino_Royale said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.Casino_Royale said:
I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.Henrietta said:
Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?Casino_Royale said:
I feel much the same way.Byronic said:I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.
It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.
This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.1 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1204521319032860680?s=20
Labour is recovering - but is it quickly enough?0 -
Farage needs to move. NOW.-1
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Is the .csv of this latest MRP up on the website yet?0
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Yeesh, 28 majority on a 9 pt lead? It's not going to be that large a gap.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
We're having a practice run for Thursday nightAlastairMeeks said:I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.
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The catastrophe is a Labour majority. That isn’t happening. A close to 10 point lead will deliver the Tories a handy majority. Johnson will be free to launch his assault on the constitution.Byronic said:Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.
Catastrophe.
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If the Lib Dems gain a decent number of affluent English seats and Jo Swinson loses hers, it would be a good result for them in the longer term. Choosing her was a disastrous decision.rcs1000 said:The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
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You know I hated that just as much as you did. I said so on here at the time.Jonathan said:
If only we all had your impartiality and objectivity Casino! FWIW Boris took it to a new level when he acted unlawfully. Should have been sacked then and there. No way back after that.Casino_Royale said:
You’re a good guy, Jonathan. I like you and I wish the Labour Party had more like you.Jonathan said:The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.
However, one of things that drives you is a pathological detestation of the Conservative Party, your lifelong enemy.
It is so obvious how this comes out in your most partisan form, and I know it isn’t really you.
You’re a thinker.
This is about stopping Corbyn, and resolving (for now) the biggest national issue we face.
Boris can then do one if he’s shite as far as I’m concerned.0 -
It's PB 48hrs before a general election. And you expect people to be calm?numbertwelve said:Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.
I think people need to calm down. 3 -
Yougov MRP then still gives a Tory majority of 28 and the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher even if as expected it has tightened a bit since the last poll
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204521341774381056?s=200 -
Poll predicts biggest Tory majority in 32 years.
PB Tories panic and say “hung parliament”
Go figure.1 -
Me thinks it's going to be like 1992. It's definitely not looking very 19831
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Equivalent poll in 2017 understated the Tories by 15+ seats0
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They would be losing seats still. Which is ridiculously bad at this stage of a government.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour have made a lot of progress
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Hmm. Tiny voteshare changes are causing rather big changes in seat totals here.
That could play out either way on Election Day.1 -
9% lead = comfortable Conservative majority. There is no need for bed-wetting.1
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East Devon is a tossup between IND and CON with the point estimates and confidence intervals both exactly the same, and no other party on more than 3 !
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Meanwhile, for those averring that voters have made up their minds:
https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1204494393824235521?s=21
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr0 -
Con : Other seats %age is 52:48.
And lo, the banter heuristic came to pass3 -
It’s up to Nigel to rescue this now.0
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One thing is certain if the Yougov MRP result is correct prepare for years of more of the same and no change.0
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So an increase in 2 points = 20 seats.
So 2 more points and 319 = HP.
Off we go0 -
He can keep it until the first Brexit vote that is not the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (that they are all signed up to)noneoftheabove said:How long can Johnson keep a majority of 28 together? 18 months? Less?
Direction of travel and how much further progress need to make, ie, not much more. Still a good result for the Tories if it pans out, but the media narrative will spread - it is close, very close. And will those Labour waverers, and the red wall, risk it now?numbertwelve said:Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.
I think people need to calm down.0 -
At GE2017 the combined Tory majorities in their 14 most marginal seats was 5,596 votes, meaning 2,803 people voting differently would have lost them those seats.
2,803 votes out of 33 million.0 -
9 point lead is still very good, 1 day of campaigning to go and the Tories would have taken that 6 weeks ago, but obviously a shame the majority has halved, but that was over 2 weeks or so!0
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It's women Johnson needs to worry about, I think.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, for those averring that voters have made up their minds:
https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1204494393824235521?s=21
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr0 -
For goodness sake all of you, get a grip! It is a poll saying Boris will win and the fact it is not suggesting a landslide means any Tory waiverers are far less likely to waiver if there is even the slightest chance of a Corbyn government.0
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Lib Dems gain South Cambs, St Albans, Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam. Lose Brecon & Radnorshire, North Norfolk.0
