North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile. I think I visited all of them!
St Albans makes a similar claim, although quite a few have closed in the past few years. The Campaign for Real Ale was founded there.
Cheltenham has a similar claim because one week in the year is very profitable for them.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
It is true. You only need to look at council results over the years to confirm it even if you have never lived there (as I did).
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
Those who trusted the YouGov MRP would have expected a possible Labour gain in Canterbury.
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.
The London & The South East train map (descended from the old British Rail "Network Southeast") looks like this:
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?
Try doing that job and seeing how unskilled it is.
The Tories view isn’t shared by you . I have the highest regard for social care workers. Shame the party you support doesn’t . Brits don’t want to do many of the jobs migrants do.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Exactly my point. The city is LD and much more easily got out.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Are you saying that teachers, nurses and police officers are unskilled workers ?
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.
At the start of the election I did myself a spreadsheet to see what was possible, I took the Leave voting Labour seats, took of the 25 with the smallest majority's as likely Tory targets, and the 25 that where only slightly lave, i.e. all had voted leave by at least 55%
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
At the start of the election, you should have had an English lesson. I can't follow your post.
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.
The London & The South East train map (descended from the old British Rail "Network Southeast" looks like this:
A recent Geoff Marshall video on YouTube pointed out that there's now a station in Hertfordshire where you can use Contactless payment but not an Oyster Card, the first and currently only station where that's the case. An interesting fact for train anoraks! I can't remember which station it is at the moment.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
I was about to say that sounds a little high to me, then I noticed the $ not the £ even so that probably incode the estimate for the Black Market, with out googling I would have gone for a bit over £2 trillion
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Did you remind them that the "youthquake" of 2017 didn't actually happen?
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
Ah, Mark Oaten. Whatever happened to him, the little sh....
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Those all need specific qualifications, so perhaps a job where there isn't such a requirement.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Those all need specific qualifications, so perhaps a job where there isn't such a requirement.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.
At the start of the election I did myself a spreadsheet to see what was possible, I took the Leave voting Labour seats, took of the 25 with the smallest majority's as likely Tory targets, and the 25 that where only slightly lave, i.e. all had voted leave by at least 55%
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
At the start of the election, you should have had an English lesson. I can't follow your post.
Sorry, Dyslexia and a desire to post quickly can be frustrating.
Corbyn really hated giving that faux apology regarding anti Semitism. Well he would, wouldn't he? He's pretending to apologise for something he's passionately believed in all of his adult life.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
Ah, Mark Oaten. Whatever happened to him, the little sh....
The shit hit the [redacted on grounds of taste and decency]
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
I’m hoping neither nurses nor teachers count as unskilled. Nor police, but there is a large waiting list of people wanting to do that job.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
And of course it has been predicted that the Tory voters will be cut off due to the snowdrifts paralysing rural areas?
No need for sarcasm. I lived in Winchester in the 90s. The Tory strongholds are some of the villages, especially on the fringes of the Meon Valley constituency. Very spread out. The strongest LD areas include the easily worked townhouses in and around the town centre. Just means you need more people to get the Conservative vote out. And they will not get any help from the Meon Valley neighbours. Flick Drummond (the Meon Valley PPC) used to be the headmistress of the Winchester Conservatives and still resents not getting the nomination many years ago.
I imagine postal votes (which are significantly different from the 90's) might be solving some of those issues.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
Ah, Mark Oaten. Whatever happened to him, the little sh....
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Those all need specific qualifications, so perhaps a job where there isn't such a requirement.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
Pay to vote is still there. What’s to be decided is the price (by the NEC when the election is called). In 2015 it was famously £3, and in 2016 £20 (the latter being the same price as a membership, and resulting in many fewer people taking up the opportunity).
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Exactly my point. The city is LD and much more easily got out.
The voters count just the same in kd
Of course they do. But if the LDs have 200 sets of shoes on the ground and the Conservatives 100, and the villages take twice as long to canvass on the day - who is going to be more effective getting their vote out? That was my point and it is irrefutable (in Winchester).
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
Ah yes. The jobs British people don’t want. Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
Ah, Mark Oaten. Whatever happened to him, the little sh....
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
Tories spending 3+ million this week if they spend what they raised last week lib dems and labour 1/2 million each, always good to have an even playing field
What are the national spending limits?
For a GE its normally about £18.8 Million, however this year is a bit difent because of the European Parliament Elections and the calculation is:
Normal GE Limit + EP Limit - Spending at EP - Spending at all Buy-Elections in the last year.
So what does that add up to???? hard to say exactly as the Electoral commition was not planning on release the spending figures for the big party's in the EP election until mid Dec!!!
As to the previous comment, the Labour party has a turnover of £50 million and employs 700 People, if they cant keep some of that back to, I donk know, FUND A GE!!! then I have little sympathy for them.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Not someone who needs the equivalent of a degree to do their job at any rate.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Jobs that anyone can walk off the street and start doing with no qualifications and minimal training.
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
Ah yes. The jobs British people don’t want. Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
Perhaps they should pay more, rather than relying on cheap labour?
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
Ah yes. The jobs British people don’t want. Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
Nope.
Again.
We'll do what Australia does. Why is this so difficult to grasp?
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.
At the start of the election I did myself a spreadsheet to see what was possible, I took the Leave voting Labour seats, took of the 25 with the smallest majority's as likely Tory targets, and the 25 that where only slightly lave, i.e. all had voted leave by at least 55%
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
At the start of the election, you should have had an English lesson. I can't follow your post.
Sorry, Dyslexia and a desire to post quickly can be frustrating.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.
Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Those sound like skilled workers to me.
So what’s an unskilled worker?
Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
Ah yes. The jobs British people don’t want. Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
Perhaps they should pay more, rather than relying on cheap labour?
The govt is one of the biggest employers, happy to pay more tax or this going on the never never?
So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.
We have:
Low unemployment An ageing population Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Do you even know what the word 'unskilled ' means?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
Tories spending 3+ million this week if they spend what they raised last week lib dems and labour 1/2 million each, always good to have an even playing field
What are the national spending limits?
For a GE its normally about £18.8 Million, however this year is a bit difent because of the European Parliament Elections and the calculation is:
Normal GE Limit + EP Limit - Spending at EP - Spending at all Buy-Elections in the last year.
So what does that add up to???? hard to say exactly as the Electoral commition was not planning on release the spending figures for the big party's in the EP election until mid Dec!!!
As to the previous comment, the Labour party has a turnover of £50 million and employs 700 People, if they cant keep some of that back to, I donk know, FUND A GE!!! then I have little sympathy for them.
What is 'sinister' about allowing the people we elect to decide these things?
That article seems to think that humans never had rights before the ECHR, and only have them now because of it.
The reason is the same reason why you have ejector seats in aircraft, emergency parachutes, and insurance on your house. For the vast majority of the time, judiciable rights are unnecessary, but when they're needed, they are really needed. And everybody can always think of a reason for getting rid of them, and is very easy to do it ("They are doing things! Human rights stop us for stopping them! Bad human rights!"), but it always goes wrong. Of course, if it goes wrong for people you don't like, you won't care overmuch, and will no doubt post lengthy posts about it. But wrong is still wrong.
They've jumped the shark, as the Americans would say.
I know...I mean I know his mates want to eradicate the Jews and happy to throw gays off buildings, but I don't think Jezza does.
All this shows is the close links between Trump's evangelical base and the rightwing end of the Jewish lobby in the US, rather than the enlightened, J Street end. Marvin Hier, who heads that organisation, was Trump's inauguration rabbi, and said he was "proud to be".
That is a cut-and-dried case of anti-semitism being weaponised by the populist right in a new way, and being dangerously muddied and devalued in the process.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.
Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
Indeed. I doubt she could place any of those three.
To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.
In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?
It is a decent point tho. Britain would likely be a better, saner place now, if Cameron had stayed on to guide the first months of Brexit.
It would have been good for him, too, as a form of penance.
For him to do that he should have been neutral during the referendum, and said he would back whichever way the public voted. Turns out that isnt a popular position with the public either.
They've jumped the shark, as the Americans would say.
I know...I mean I know his mates want to eradicate the Jews and happy to throw gays off buildings, but I don't think Jezza does.
The lads in Iran are going to be really annoyed about being overlooked. What's the point of threatening to wipe Israel from the face of the Earth if some bloke with an allotment takes the top spot?
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
Back above 4k on Friday.
You may be right, but that Corbyn is prepared to go out of his way to visit suggests he believes it is possible. Late leader visits are often informative. It certainly makes 27/10 interesting odds on a Labour win.
It is a decent point tho. Britain would likely be a better, saner place now, if Cameron had stayed on to guide the first months of Brexit.
It would have been good for him, too, as a form of penance.
No it wouldn't, nobody would have trusted him. He stayed on until May was elected quite rightly rather than vanishing overnight, the fact May was elected is what caused the future issues.
They've jumped the shark, as the Americans would say.
I know...I mean I know his mates want to eradicate the Jews and happy to throw gays off buildings, but I don't think Jezza does.
The lads in Iran are going to be really annoyed about being overlooked. What's the point of threatening to wipe Israel from the face of the Earth if some bloke with an allotment takes the top spot?
Its like when Ryan Giggs won SPOTY when he was well past his best....
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
That's almost certainly true.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
Those who trusted the YouGov MRP would have expected a possible Labour gain in Canterbury.
Comments
BONG......
And the exit poll says:
Fuck knows......
We have:
Low unemployment
An ageing population
Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early
Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.
Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/London_South_East_0519.pdf
Who is going to fill all those jobs ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html
I think that is just a tad OTT....
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1203436346800529408
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html
Anti-Nazi hunting organisation says Corbyn is the worst antisemite on the planet
Jeremy Corbyn is the biggest global threat to Jews, warns Simon Wiesenthal Centre
No one has done more to mainstream antisemitism into the political and social life of a democracy than the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party.
In 2015 it was famously £3, and in 2016 £20 (the latter being the same price as a membership, and resulting in many fewer people taking up the opportunity).
It would have been good for him, too, as a form of penance.
Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
More seriously, hand car washers?
Oh but you think shes brilliant too!!
Again.
We'll do what Australia does. Why is this so difficult to grasp?
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/working-in-australia/skillselect/occupation-ceilings
Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
If the Tories have won a majority, there isn't going to be any rush, so they may as well take as much time as possible to get the right candidate.
I'll be backing Starmer if he stands - but purely as a bystander (not a LP member)
That is a cut-and-dried case of anti-semitism being weaponised by the populist right in a new way, and being dangerously muddied and devalued in the process.
To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.
In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?
Ah, bollocks. Cumbria!
But that was due to the idiotic leader voting system that Miliband set up.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
Anyone who did would have made a fortune.