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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON

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  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    I've been offline today, is there a summary of today's polls anywhere, only seen a couple.

    The Tories are about 10 points ahead, and cruising to a modest but solid majority.

    Despite all the noise, there isn't much meaningful sound. The Tories have been about 10 points ahead since the get-go
  • RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.

    We have:

    Low unemployment
    An ageing population
    Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early

    Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.

    Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
    Those sound like skilled workers to me.
    So what’s an unskilled worker?
    Menial agricultural workers, car washers, big issue sellers and various other minimum wage no qualification jobs.
    Ah yes. The jobs British people don’t want.
    Cheers Boris. That will improve the lives of people in Hartlepool.
    Re-opening all those automatic car washes would be a step towards improving the country’s productivity. I’m not sure that fewer Big issue sellers would be a massive blow to our economy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    In all seriousness, Labour really shouldn't have a rushed leadership election. They need proper scrutiny and a decent set of candidates.

    If the Tories have won a majority, there isn't going to be any rush, so they may as well take as much time as possible to get the right candidate.

    I'll be backing Starmer if he stands - but purely as a bystander (not a LP member)

    Fair comment. They acted in haste in 2015 and look like they'll be repenting at leisure.

    The Labour membership might very well inflict another Corbynite upon the nation, but if they're not making the choice in an atmosphere of uncomprehending, jilted rage then the chance of a platform emerging that's a bit more Scandi social democratic and a bit less Latin American Marxist might improve just a little.
  • humbugger said:

    Interesting that Betfair market hasn't got that over-excited by tonights polls.

    Why would it, not much change is there?
    Last Saturday nights polls were showing the position with 11 campaigning days left to go.
    Tonights polls show the position with 4 campaigning days left to go.

    64% of the remaining campaigning time from last Saturday has now gone. That's a big change even if nothing else is.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is the biggest global threat to Jews, warns Simon Wiesenthal Centre - the world's leading Nazi-hunting organisation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html

    I think that is just a tad OTT....

    Saudi Arabia and Iran are on the phone. They'd like to point out the AMAZINGLY FUCKING OBVIOUS.
    The point is this is a major western democracy, one of the biggest soft powers on the globe, on the edge of being governed by an official anti-Semite.

    Britain is not Iran or Saudi, tho they are significant powers. Britain is home to the mother of parliaments.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    alb1on said:

    Asking for a friend.

    What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520

    He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption

    If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!

    But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
    If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
    I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
    Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
    Back above 4k on Friday.
    You may be right, but that Corbyn is prepared to go out of his way to visit suggests he believes it is possible. Late leader visits are often informative. It certainly makes 27/10 interesting odds on a Labour win.
    Corbyn is throwing the Momentum masses a bit of red meat. "Guys, we are going to be winning seats on Thursday. Keep going. One last push...!" What else can he do - "Let's all go to Wrexham and reduce the Tory majority to under two thousand!"

  • felix said:

    dr_spyn said:
    So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.

    We have:

    Low unemployment
    An ageing population
    Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early

    Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.

    Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
    Do you even know what the word 'unskilled ' means?
    Currently for skilled visas you need a salary of at least 30k, or the appropriate rate for the job if its higher than that. My assumption was that stays the same and for these purposes unskilled = not qualified for a skilled visa.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    I'm going to take some time off here for a few days, all the best.

    See you Friday.

    Maybe.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is the biggest global threat to Jews, warns Simon Wiesenthal Centre - the world's leading Nazi-hunting organisation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html

    I think that is just a tad OTT....

    Saudi Arabia and Iran are on the phone. They'd like to point out the AMAZINGLY FUCKING OBVIOUS.
    The point is this is a major western democracy, one of the biggest soft powers on the globe, on the edge of being governed by an official anti-Semite.

    Britain is not Iran or Saudi, tho they are significant powers. Britain is home to the mother of parliaments.
    No it isn't. The point is that Marvin Hier is an ally of Trump and part of a culture war, weaponising the issue of anti-semitism with catastrophic recklessness.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    SeanT had an anecdote about some Londoners who had once visited Windsor.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated

    We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.

    She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.

    But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,

    How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?

    My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
    My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".

    Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties

    I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
    Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
    I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
    Depends on whether you mean are people from a specific place X more likely to have gone to London than people from London gone to that specific place X outside of London (answer, yes of course) or are people from all places outside London more likely to have been to London than people in London to have visited any place outside of London (of course not). Eg I live in London but I regularly visit friends and family outside of London, and more frequently than they come to London. But I have never been to Grimsby or Stoke, but I am sure lots of people from Grimsby and Stoke have been to London.
    Of course most of the London dwellers who people outside of London have a beef about (upper middle class university educated types - the so called metropolitan liberal elites) are not originally from London. Most people who are actually from London are working class and pretty much like people outside of London, except less likely to be white.
    The London that people love to hate doesn't really exist.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Central estimates from the Holy MRP: Lab 43 Con 33 Brex 15. Looks safe enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    That can't be true...its been red for 80 years.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    Asking for a friend.

    What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520

    He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption

    If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!

    But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
    If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
    I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
    Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
    Back above 4k on Friday.
    You may be right, but that Corbyn is prepared to go out of his way to visit suggests he believes it is possible. Late leader visits are often informative. It certainly makes 27/10 interesting odds on a Labour win.
    Corbyn is throwing the Momentum masses a bit of red meat. "Guys, we are going to be winning seats on Thursday. Keep going. One last push...!" What else can he do - "Let's all go to Wrexham and reduce the Tory majority to under two thousand!"

    I can think of much easier places to go to preach that message. It will be interesting to see where Boris rocks up (although we will need to factor in the possibility that his itinary is dictated by the location of mistresses rather than winnable seats).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated

    We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.

    She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.

    But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,

    How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?

    My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
    My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".

    Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties

    I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
    Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
    I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
    Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.

    Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
    Indeed. I doubt she could place any of those three.

    To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.

    In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?

    Ah, bollocks. Cumbria!
    Ushaia claims to be "Fin el Mundo".

    Workington should sue.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019
    It pisses me off that there aren't any automatic car washes left anymore in my area. The one I routinely used was removed a few month ago to make space for a bigger forecourt shop. Can't blame them, there was never a queue whenever I used it.

    The idea we need people to wash our cars for us in 2019 is absurd to me. I've never had an issue with an automatic wash.
  • RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Ashton is very leave-y, but honestly, I'd be pretty shocked.
  • 1.36
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    humbugger said:

    1.36

    million views?

    :D
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated

    We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.

    She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.

    But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,

    How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?

    My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
    My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".

    Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties

    I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
    Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
    I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
    Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.

    Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
    Indeed. I doubt she could place any of those three.

    To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.

    In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?

    Ah, bollocks. Cumbria!
    Ushaia claims to be "Fin el Mundo".

    Workington should sue.
    Darwen makes Workington look like Las Vegas.
  • 1.35
  • RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Ashton is very leave-y, but honestly, I'd be pretty shocked.
    I think it is more likely that candidates in those kind of seats are used to 99% positive feedback on the doorsteps and getting quite a shock when some people are going you f##king arseholes blocking Brexit.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    2.7 million views of the Tory You Tube ad now.
  • RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Floater said:

    I think this is a bit overblown but jeeezus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html


    No one has done more to mainstream antisemitism into the political and social life of a democracy than the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party.

    You'd think, looking back through history, there'd be at least one person more egregiously anti-semitic than Corbyn. But no.
  • Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    I'm not sure many PBers are desperate for the psephological opinions of Eggwina Currie.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Ashton is very leave-y, but honestly, I'd be pretty shocked.
    The YouGov MRP has significant overlap between the Labour range at the Tory range.
  • Byronic said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    That's almost certainly true.

    Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.

    I've visited every single station marked on the current London Oystercard & Contactless map. Nearly 700 of them :)
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    I'm going to take some time off here for a few days, all the best.

    See you Friday.

    Maybe.
    He'll be back if a couple of polls show his hung parliament even remotely close to fruition. Be sure of it.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    I'm not sure many PBers are desperate for the psephological opinions of Eggwina Currie.
    Nonsense. She is a major figure in political affairs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Byronic said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    That's almost certainly true.

    Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.

    I've visited every single station marked on the current London Oystercard & Contactless map. Nearly 700 of them :)
    Could you do it in a single day? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Are we expecting BMG tonight?

    I would have thought they had already published - but they haven't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Byronic said:

    I've been offline today, is there a summary of today's polls anywhere, only seen a couple.

    The Tories are about 10 points ahead, and cruising to a modest but solid majority.

    Despite all the noise, there isn't much meaningful sound. The Tories have been about 10 points ahead since the get-go
    That's what has finally convinced me we are not getting a hung parliament. Polls just being flat out wrong, or some last minute surge, are not impossible, but those hoping on a hung parliament relying on them being right, and in fact needing both to be right, is not promising.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    I'm not sure many PBers are desperate for the psephological opinions of Eggwina Currie.
    9/2 with SKYbet might be of interest though.
  • Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Remembering the big line in the DC to see the US constitution with many English accents in the line, and the short line in Lincoln castle to see the Magna Carta,(of which some where US) I wonder if more British people have visited the Constitution?

    For Londoners Proberbly?
  • kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been offline today, is there a summary of today's polls anywhere, only seen a couple.

    The Tories are about 10 points ahead, and cruising to a modest but solid majority.

    Despite all the noise, there isn't much meaningful sound. The Tories have been about 10 points ahead since the get-go
    That's what has finally convinced me we are not getting a hung parliament. Polls just being flat out wrong, or some last minute surge, are not impossible, but those hoping on a hung parliament relying on them being right, and in fact needing both to be right, is not promising.
    No sign of one final Labour Sam Allardyce sized redacted....
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been offline today, is there a summary of today's polls anywhere, only seen a couple.

    The Tories are about 10 points ahead, and cruising to a modest but solid majority.

    Despite all the noise, there isn't much meaningful sound. The Tories have been about 10 points ahead since the get-go
    That's what has finally convinced me we are not getting a hung parliament. Polls just being flat out wrong, or some last minute surge, are not impossible, but those hoping on a hung parliament relying on them being right, and in fact needing both to be right, is not promising.
    Have you finally cut the umbilical cord with 2017 kle4?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
  • Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
    In what way?
  • RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
    I've tried my parents' postcode (Rochdale) in the Momentum campaign tool, and it's suggesting Bury South and Calder Valley (understandably). No events showing for the safer seats like Ashton, Rochdale etc. They must feel confident.
  • The constituency analysis by datapraxis:

    https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-or-hung-parliament

    Amusingly it refers to Hartlepool as Huddersfield.

    Don't you love that attention to detail when making electoral predictions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    They did pretty well with East Devon last time.
  • Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited December 2019

    Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?

    I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.

    I hope so,was fun last time.
    Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
    I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
    What kind of madman would make such a thing?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
    In what way?
    The de-ageing effects and with his blue eyes.

    I had a problem with him being made to look like a 20 something whilst he walked and moved like the septuagenarian that he is.

    Was a good movie but I couldn’t get away from the disparity.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I'm going to take some time off here for a few days, all the best.

    Ok CHB hopefully see you soon before the election. We are on different sides but you add value so please keep posting
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
    It would be something of a surprise. Ashton is number 133 on the Labour defence list. It's safer than Torfaen and Tooting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    I think this is a bit overblown but jeeezus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html


    No one has done more to mainstream antisemitism into the political and social life of a democracy than the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party.

    You'd think, looking back through history, there'd be at least one person more egregiously anti-semitic than Corbyn. But no.
    What a nonsensical point. Why does it apply to a claim about the present, current, non historical state of affairs?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    I was thinking the same thing. In 2017 they somehow predicted that Claire Wright would gain East Devon: she did pretty well but the Tories won it by 8,000. This time they're saying the Tories will hold it but again I don't know how they can apply the model to that type of contest.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been offline today, is there a summary of today's polls anywhere, only seen a couple.

    The Tories are about 10 points ahead, and cruising to a modest but solid majority.

    Despite all the noise, there isn't much meaningful sound. The Tories have been about 10 points ahead since the get-go
    That's what has finally convinced me we are not getting a hung parliament. Polls just being flat out wrong, or some last minute surge, are not impossible, but those hoping on a hung parliament relying on them being right, and in fact needing both to be right, is not promising.
    Have you finally cut the umbilical cord with 2017 kle4?
    It's the sibling to 2017 - some similar elements, due to the genetic background, but still notably different.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019

    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
    In what way?
    The de-ageing effects and with his blue eyes.

    I had a problem with him being made to look like a 20 something whilst he walked and moved like the septuagenarian that he is.

    Was a good movie but I couldn’t get away from the disparity.
    Oh I see...yes the uncanny valley is definitely a still a thing even with VFX. But I was totally taken in by the story that I looked past that. It could have been capped at 3hrs though.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
    Lincoln Cathedral was once the tallest building in the world. It is one of the great cathedrals of Europe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    dr_spyn said:
    So where are all the new teachers, nurses and police officers going to come from.

    We have:

    Low unemployment
    An ageing population
    Existing teachers, nurses and police in their fifties still in very good pension schemes (in relation to the private sector) so many will be retiring early

    Either we are not recruiting these additional public sector workers (it will be tough to maintain current numbers) or we will have unskilled immigration around current levels.

    Which is the lie? Probably both or a bit of both.
    I wouldn’t regard teacher nurses and police as being “low skilled”
  • camel said:

    Floater said:

    I think this is a bit overblown but jeeezus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7767789/Jeremy-Corbyn-biggest-global-threat-Jews-warns-worlds-leading-Nazi-hunting-organisation.html


    No one has done more to mainstream antisemitism into the political and social life of a democracy than the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party.

    You'd think, looking back through history, there'd be at least one person more egregiously anti-semitic than Corbyn. But no.
    Not if you're fundraising for Trump's 2020 campaign, as Marvin Hier, the highly contentious head of that Centre and responsible for that quote, has been. Trump has already been running one of his long-running twitter spats with Corbyn.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/106152/jeremy-corbyn-hits-back-donald
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
    Lincoln cathedral was once the tallest building in the world.

    And not surpassed for over five centuries.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures
  • Just caught up on the polls. One of SevantaComres and Opinium are going to end up with egg on their face aren't they? Don't see any last minute herding yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
    What kind of madman would make such a thing?
    In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.

    Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    I would overall agree with your statement, however, the track record of ex MPs standing as independents, mostly shows how small there 'personal vote' with a few expiations.

    May not follow this time, with outside backing and tactical voting websites, last time I checked Wikipedia I think there 21 ex MPs standing as independents or for a deferent party 17 in the same seat, I think 2 stand a chance. but am ready to be amazed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
    Lincoln cathedral was once the tallest building in the world.

    And not surpassed for over five centuries.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures
    I think that's why it was used in the comparison.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Just realised I have passed 1000 posts, do I get anything?
  • RobD said:

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    They did pretty well with East Devon last time.
    But they had a baseline, since she had stood in 2015.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    BigRich said:

    Just realised I have passed 1000 posts, do I get anything?

    A “Get Brexit Done” badge? 😉
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Where's survation?!
  • Takeaways from Mega Polling Saturday:

    1. Not a repeat of 2017. No polls showing less than 6% lead. The Tories have avoided the 1% Survation pantwetting
    2. HP is still possible, just, but Con Maj definitely deserves being favourite
    3. Still a fairly wide divergence - compare the 6% ComRes-er with the Opinium mammoth Tory lead.
    4. Predictions of modest Tory majority look about right to me.

    I’m going for a majority of about 20.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.

    It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated

    We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.

    She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.

    But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,

    How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?

    My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
    My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".

    Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties

    I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
    Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
    I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
    Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.

    Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
    Indeed. I doubt she could place any of those three.

    To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.

    In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?

    Ah, bollocks. Cumbria!
    Ushaia claims to be "Fin el Mundo".

    Workington should sue.
    The bulkof Workington constituency is beautiful.

    I believe the Honister Pass is in the Workington constituency. Arguably the most impressive landscape in England.

    Also, for film fans, the location for the Khyber Pass in Carry on up the Khyber.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    RobD said:

    Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.

    Majority 11k.

    :o:D:o
    Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
    There will be a very, very partial canvas by anybody in such seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    They did pretty well with East Devon last time.
    But they had a baseline, since she had stood in 2015.
    Ah, I hadn't appreciated that!
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.

    It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
    Are these two points connected?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?!

    Tomorrow, I think.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    humbugger said:

    1.35

    Was £23000 then went to £3000 on back, does that mean someone just put £20k on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    BigRich said:

    Just realised I have passed 1000 posts, do I get anything?

    A 'just getting started' sticker.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?

    I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.

    I hope so,was fun last time.
    Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
    I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!

    Were you a (not-Labour) councillor at the time? I recall a few of them being booted from the lists by a vetting process.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Completely disagree.

    I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    You're an ignoramus, is what you are.

    Lincoln Cathedral is one of the architectural glories of the world, and its context in the almost-perfectly preserved Medieval, Tudor and Georgian precincts of hilly old Lincoln is nigh-on miraculous.

    England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.

    Lincoln survived. It is more impressive as a building than Wells, and more poetic as a place than Salisbury. It really is a jewel.


    Macchu Picchu is great, but you expect it to be great. Lincoln is the surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
    In what way?
    The de-ageing effects and with his blue eyes.

    I had a problem with him being made to look like a 20 something whilst he walked and moved like the septuagenarian that he is.

    Was a good movie but I couldn’t get away from the disparity.
    The CGI was ridiculously expensive. Given the poor result, I would hope it sounds the death knell for de-ageing.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I suppose everything is geared up for Survation to deliver a shock poll tomorrow !

    It’s a bit of a mystery why BMG didn’t report tonight , it seems strange to do weekly polls and then the final weekend before the election to not have one .
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.

    I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.

    It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
    Are these two points connected?
    "Look, mate, I'm bloody well telling you that Lincoln Cathedral is one of the finest in Europe, no arguments"
    "I mean, IDK, it's good and all, but St Peter's Basilica is a true marvel..."
    *gets hit in face*
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
    Lincoln cathedral was once the tallest building in the world.

    And not surpassed for over five centuries.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures
    I think that's why it was used in the comparison.
    Lincoln's aptly name Steep Hill has been a winner of Britain's Best Street:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-15691941
  • Byronic said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    You're an ignoramus, is what you are.

    Lincoln Cathedral is one of the architectural glories of the world, and its context in the almost-perfectly preserved Medieval, Tudor and Georgian precincts of hilly old Lincoln is nigh-on miraculous.

    England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.

    Lincoln survived. It is more impressive as a building than Wells, and more poetic as a place than Salisbury. It really is a jewel.


    Macchu Picchu is great, but you expect it to be great. Lincoln is the surprise.
    Yeah but it is Salisbury that draws the tourists. Just ask the Russians.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    I was thinking the same thing. In 2017 they somehow predicted that Claire Wright would gain East Devon: she did pretty well but the Tories won it by 8,000. This time they're saying the Tories will hold it but again I don't know how they can apply the model to that type of contest.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
    I think that's fair comment, but the relatively well known independents aren't numerous enough to be likely to have much bearing on the overall result. AFAIK the only candidates who could plausibly be placed in that category are Grieve, Gauke, Milton, Field, Williamson, the three remaining TIGs and Claire Wright, and only 2 or 3 of them have any realistic chance of winning. The rest of the 21 Tory rebels (and the assorted ex-Labourites) aren't standing again, have had the Tory whip restored or have joined the Liberal Democrats. Am I missing anyone out?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    That's almost certainly true.

    Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.

    I cannot testify to the social circle of international crossdressing male models transitioning to be a woman who have visited Antarctica, so maybe you are correct. However Lincoln is difficult to get to from (thinks for a minute) everywhere. However York Minster is reasonably easily accessible, in the better part of Yorkshire, and is close to many pleasant tea shops.

    But if we are going to nominate Best Big Church In Britain, I stick my paw up for St Paul's. Westminster Abbey gets overshadowed by Parliament. However I do have a soft spot for Paddy's Wigwam or the little-known Westminster Cathedral
  • BigRich said:

    Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.

    I would overall agree with your statement, however, the track record of ex MPs standing as independents, mostly shows how small there 'personal vote' with a few expiations.

    May not follow this time, with outside backing and tactical voting websites, last time I checked Wikipedia I think there 21 ex MPs standing as independents or for a deferent party 17 in the same seat, I think 2 stand a chance. but am ready to be amazed.
    Yes, most of them will get few votes.

    Re Beaconsfield in particular, perhaps the MRP modelling is assuming that some proportion of voters who would have voted LibDem will support Dominic Grieve instead. Which is fine, except that the extent that that will happen is guesswork.
  • After today's football scores and tonight's polls, as a Liverpool fan and Tory conditioned to disappointment I'm finding it hard not to get carried away.

    Which is more likely in your eyes - Tories fail to get a majority, or Liverpool fail to get the title?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited December 2019
    Survation is out at midnight tomorrow so a bit of a wait for that one. Monday will see icm and the Welsh barometer update
  • Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?!

    Last week they published at Midnight!
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.

    I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
    I think it's described by Peter Hitchens as people more likely to have visited Boston, Massachusetts than Boston, Lincolnshire
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot :)
    Lincoln Cathedral was once the tallest building in the world. It is one of the great cathedrals of Europe.
    My office is 100 yards from the current tallest building in the world. It’s amazing how you don’t notice it, even when you drive right past it every day. You can see it from miles away though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.

    Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
    In what way?
    The de-ageing effects and with his blue eyes.

    I had a problem with him being made to look like a 20 something whilst he walked and moved like the septuagenarian that he is.

    Was a good movie but I couldn’t get away from the disparity.
    Technology is great and improving in that area, but it sounds like like any new toy directors are forgetting that audiences are perfectly willing to accept some other actor as the younger version of the lead. Youthifying a few decades can work great now, but there are limits.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    I bet fervent Corbyn supporters are more likely to have visited Peru than Lincoln.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:


    I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?

    I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
    I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
    Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
    Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.

    It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
    Are these two points connected?
    Yes. It’s a long time ago though and I can’t remember all the details.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    The constituency analysis by datapraxis:

    https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-or-hung-parliament

    Amusingly it refers to Hartlepool as Huddersfield.

    Don't you love that attention to detail when making electoral predictions.

    Closest results look to be Vale of Clwyd where the Tories are ahead by 0.8%, Workington where Labour is ahead by 2.1%, Chingford and Woodford Green where the Tories are ahead 46% to 44.4%, Wrexham where the Tories lead 41.4% to 36.6%, East Dunbartonshire where Swinson is ahead 38.5% to 34.2%, Winchester where the LDs are ahead 45.8% to 45.2%, Lanark and Hamilton East where the SNP lead 38.3% to 35%, Putney where the Tories are ahead 37.9% to 34.7%.

    https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-or-hung-parliament
This discussion has been closed.