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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON

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  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    dr_spyn said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I've seen the link on Facebook today, but haven't bothered to click on it.
    That's quite powerful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    dr_spyn said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I've seen the link on Facebook today, but haven't bothered to click on it.
    It was at the top of my YouTube homepage today
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.

    I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.

    I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
  • The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    JamesP said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's on the front page of YouTube
    It's sister film,"Well Hung Parliament", is on the front page of Youporn.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,686

    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?

    Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
    Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4

    If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
    So you are on the late shift...
    Mind you..or multiple trollers could be using each others logins...
  • Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I think we can safely say that the money the Guardian has spent on constituency polling has not produced the results it hoped it would.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've laid Ed in Doncaster North. Don't expect him to go down but very profitable if it happens.

    9/1, I'm almost tempted.
  • MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    Where does Lab 35 come from? Lab shares:

    ComRes (Miller) - 36
    ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
    Opinium - 31
    That went well then. You are correct

    Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
    I’m fairly certain a Snowball counts as at least one of your five a day if the recipe is what I think it is. Cheers!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    dr_spyn said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I've seen the link on Facebook today, but haven't bothered to click on it.
    Simple, straightforward message, uncluttered, direct. And I would suggest very effective.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's the banner ad on youtube for all UK users all day. Just had a look and Labour youtube channel hasn't released anything for a week, and none of it's last 10 videos managed above 7k views
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I have read previously that the Tories are adopting the same social media strategy as Vote Leave did. It certainly worked for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464

    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?

    Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
    Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4

    If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
    Mainly as it is very Remain and helped by heavy Labour tactical voting.

    However in Remain voting Putney Labour is getting no swing from the Tories at all and in Remain voting Southport there is a swing from Labour to the Tories.

    Labour needs a swing from the Tories in Remain seats to make up for the swing to the Tories in Leave seats, it is not getting it, only the LDs are
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've laid Ed in Doncaster North. Don't expect him to go down but very profitable if it happens.

    9/1, I'm almost tempted.
    Don't be.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    And quite possibly East Devon to Claire Wright.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,095
    edited December 2019
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s


    Quite cleverly done, with lots of careful touches - the warm Scottish accent, clashing ironically with the contempt many of the most strident English Leavers feel for Scotland and the Union, and the absurd emphasis on a humanitarian kindness of healing wounds that would flow from "getting Brexit done". It might be targeted particularly at female voters hostile to Johnson, and it might have some effect if that's the target group.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    JamesP said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's on the front page of YouTube
    And yes, they’ll be paying lots (five figures) for it to be there. It will probably be a different one tomorrow, and Monday, and Tuesday.....
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Sandpit said:

    JamesP said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's on the front page of YouTube
    And yes, they’ll be paying lots (five figures) for it to be there. It will probably be a different one tomorrow, and Monday, and Tuesday.....
    Well. 2.3 million views now
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s


    Quite cleverly done, with lots of careful touches - the warm Scottish accent, clashing ironically with the contempt many of the most strident English Leavers feel for Scotland and the Union, and the absurd emphasis on a humanitarian kindness of healing wounds that would flow from "getting Brexit done". It might be targeted particularly at female voters hostile to Johnson, and it might have some effect in that target group.
    That was paid on the home page of YouTube. £££££
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Jason said:


    dr_spyn said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I've seen the link on Facebook today, but haven't bothered to click on it.
    Simple, straightforward message, uncluttered, direct. And I would suggest very effective.
    Cons have come a long way since Powell. Thank God.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Sandpit said:

    JamesP said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's on the front page of YouTube
    And yes, they’ll be paying lots (five figures) for it to be there. It will probably be a different one tomorrow, and Monday, and Tuesday.....
    Well. 2.3 million views now
    Given it's on the main page that actually doesn't sound a lot...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    The tedious comparisons with 2017 seem to have finally dissipated.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    If Joshua doesn't beat that fat chump Ruiz, he will be remembered as the one of the biggest flakes in boxing history.
  • BETTING TIP

    *Labour to win Aberconwy. 5/2*

    Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.

    Result 2017
    Conservative 14337 (+3.1%)
    Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%)
    Plaid 3170
    Lib dem 941

    Get on it.


    Welcome to PB.com with your very first post. Caution is required I would suggest as regards your suggestion of backing Labour's Emily Owen to win Aberconwy. Electoral Calculus reckon the Tories have a 71% chance of winning this seat with Labour languishing on 27%. Based on those percentages, I'd want much better odds than the 5/2 you quote, but good luck anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,429
    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    10% lead for 10 days.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Flattest atmosphere ever for a world heavyweight clash I reckon tonight
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,204
    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    Hard to see anything other than a Conservative majority government based on that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.

    I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.

    The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
  • Dump it, burn it, hang it and bury it. Stay signatory to the ECHR though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    edited December 2019
    Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
  • Cyclefree said:
    Stefan is my old tutor.

    Note that the commitment is basically nothing compared to the previous manifestos. Quite a long way down the pecking order for things to do...
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Pulpstar said:

    Flattest atmosphere ever for a world heavyweight clash I reckon tonight

    soberest
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    I guess we’ll just have to hope the LibDems don’t miss out by two, then.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    How do you date each poll?

    You have same date for both tonight's ComRes polls even though Telegraph (4-5 Dec) is more recent than Miller (2-5 Dec).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,213

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
    No.

    I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
    I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Really good article from a couple of days ago by Douglas Carswell regarding online spending.

    TL:DR Tories haven't been spending much, up until today. They've been trying small volumes of literally thousands of different ads, to see what sticks with the public.

    It's the Vote Leave playbook, and there are quite a few of the same people involved.

    https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
    Do you think IDS could be a victim to the north London labour surge?
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
    This is roughly where I'm at as well.

    Will involve some breaching of the Red Wall, and will be fascinating to see where that occurs.
    It will indeed be fascinating, but tonight's constituency polls leave you as much in the dark as before re the Red Wall. None are in seats where the Conservatives are looking to pick up seats from Labour. All seats where the Conservatives are playing defence. Of the 26 seats polled in total, only 4 (Workington, Gedling, Grimsby, Wrexham) offer an insight to the pivotal question that will define the outcome of this election.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Pulpstar said:

    Flattest atmosphere ever for a world heavyweight clash I reckon tonight

    £25 I saw for the PPV - to watch a pair of bums - worlds got absolutely mad.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,376
    edited December 2019
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    Makes a change from Grammarly ads. 😊
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Pulpstar said:

    Flattest atmosphere ever for a world heavyweight clash I reckon tonight

    I heard they were really struggling to sell tickets, arena could be full of freebies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    How do you date each poll?

    You have same date for both tonight's ComRes polls even though Telegraph (4-5 Dec) is more recent than Miller (2-5 Dec).
    I am a lazy bum and use the last day of the poll, rather than computing the mid-point.

    I could go back and also save the start date, so the code calculates the mid-point automatically. Hopefully doesn't change much.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,684
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    Very stable.
    Now the question is how it translates into seats.

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Expect to see one last final insane Labour bung in the final few days. Free year's wages for every Labour leave voter in the country?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Andy_JS said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    Makes a change from Grammarly ads. 😊
    Or a Gordon Ramsey masterclass.
  • Andy_JS said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    Makes a change from Grammarly ads.
    Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
    Do you think IDS could be a victim to the north London labour surge?
    He won by 5% in 2017 and I think he will hold it by about the same margin.

    Raab is probably more at risk than IDS now though both will be close
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Cyclefree said:
    What is 'sinister' about allowing the people we elect to decide these things?

    That article seems to think that humans never had rights before the ECHR, and only have them now because of it.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?

    Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
    Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4

    If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
    Guildford is not easily amenable to usual analysis in this election. Milton is taking a chunk of Conservative voters (and has taken so many of the local workers that Angela Richardson has had to beg for reinforcement from other seats). The Conservatives have also been extremely stupid in selecting a rabid brexiteer to replace Milton in a seat which is heavily remain. Add in that Franklin is a local and repeat candidate for the LDs, and a much better candidate than her predecessor. Then you have the local factors. The local plan, put forward (and forced through at the last minute before May) was so unpopular that the Conservatives are no longer even the second biggest group on the council. To put it into perspective, sitting Conservative councillors have openly supported candidates opposing the Conservative in some elections due to the plan issue over the last few years. Then there was the former Conservative leader of Guildford council, who resigned and went off in a huff after losing a referendum on having an empowered Mayor - and that was after he was ridiculed for supporting his mistress (another Conservative councillor) who was convicted for impersonating a barrister. You could not invent some of the stuff the local Conservatives have got up to.

    So in normal circumstances the Conservatives would retain the seat comfortably. But they have certainly done everything in their power to give it away.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    While we are waiting for the rest of the polls -- https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY

    A flat line for both parties...

    How do you date each poll?

    You have same date for both tonight's ComRes polls even though Telegraph (4-5 Dec) is more recent than Miller (2-5 Dec).
    I am a lazy bum and use the last day of the poll, rather than computing the mid-point.

    I could go back and also save the start date, so the code calculates the mid-point automatically. Hopefully doesn't change much.
    OK, thanks, no problem - please don't waste time changing it - it's fine as it is - I was just curious to know.

    Thanks again.

  • The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.

    I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.

    I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.

    On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.

    Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.

    I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491

    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I think we can safely say that the money the Guardian has spent on constituency polling has not produced the results it hoped it would.
    How much does a constituency poll cost?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jason said:

    Expect to see one last final insane Labour bung in the final few days. Free year's wages for every Labour leave voter in the country?

    They've still not promised to cancel tuition fee debt have they?

    Beyond that, who knows what they might come up with? Raising the basic state pension to bring it into line with average earnings, perhaps?
  • Andy_JS said:

    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    Makes a change from Grammarly ads. 😊
    I get ads for Cyberpunk 2077. I’m afraid they are wasting their money though: I was always going to buy that after how good The Witcher 3 was.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
    No.

    I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
    I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
    I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.

    They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,204
    dr_spyn said:
    You know the game's up for the Opposition when you start seeing headlines like that...
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Gary Neville"&src=trend_click

    Gary Neville gifting the Tories even more Labour leave voters at the election. Thank you, Gary.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    So we have one party with an anti Semitism problem, and another party with an anti Semitism AND Islamophobia problem.

    Dirty rotten U.K. society on the slide. 🙁
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    edited December 2019
    dr_spyn said:
    So a 4.5% swing from Labour to the Tories and a 1% swing from the Tories to the LDs with 5 days to go
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,227
    dr_spyn said:
    Ouch. Corbyn with a lower approval rating than Swinson?

    His campaign really has been poor, hasn’t it?
  • HP remains at 50% then
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Expect to see one last final insane Labour bung in the final few days. Free year's wages for every Labour leave voter in the country?

    They've still not promised to cancel tuition fee debt have they?

    Beyond that, who knows what they might come up with? Raising the basic state pension to bring it into line with average earnings, perhaps?
    Whatever it might be, people have stopped listening. That is fatal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    I've just laid Ruiz in the boxing (£2) on the basis it's bloody hard to go for 12 rounds when you're carrying as much body fat as he is. We will see !
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    You know the game's up for the Opposition when you start seeing headlines like that...
    The game has been up for a while to be honest

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Nobidexx said:


    The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.

    I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.

    I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.

    On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.

    Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.

    I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
    The behaviour of the Labour Leave voters continues to be the great imponderable. On the one hand, they might actually resist the urge to run home and decline to vote Labour. On the other, they could back the Brexit Party or sit on their hands rather than cross right over to the Conservatives, which would of course halve the effect of their actions on Labour's majorities in the Lab-Con marginals. We shall just have to wait and see.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:


    His campaign really has been poor, hasn’t it?


    I doubt there's much could be done - he's been in the low negative 40s net approval all year, people's opinions of him are largely fixed. All the free coverage and giveaways in a campaign can't shift that much more than a few points max.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
    No.

    I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
    I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
    I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.

    They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
    So, you want greater austerity?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Jason said:

    https://twitter.com/search?q="Gary Neville"&src=trend_click

    Gary Neville gifting the Tories even more Labour leave voters at the election. Thank you, Gary.

    WTF? Surely everyone working in any form of TV & radio media gets the briefing on political impartiality the week before an election?
  • The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.

    I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.

    The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
    The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.

    I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
  • Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Watford to be relegated 1/4
    Conservative majority 4/11
    (Ladbrokes)
    Implies that Corbyn's chances are only marginally better than Watford's.
  • GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    You know the game's up for the Opposition when you start seeing headlines like that...
    The Guardian website tells its own story. Ramping is over, brace position adopted.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andrew said:

    ydoethur said:


    His campaign really has been poor, hasn’t it?


    I doubt there's much could be done. He's been in the low -40s net approval all year, people's opinions of him are largely fixed.
    The Telegraph has directly accused him of being an anti semite - I don't recall that from 2017
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    You know the game's up for the Opposition when you start seeing headlines like that...
    The Guardian website tells its own story. Ramping is over, brace position adopted.
    oh dear never mind - see you later horse battery!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,227
    Nobidexx said:

    The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.

    I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.

    The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
    The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.

    I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
    They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dr_spyn said:
    Anything but Brexit, anyone but the Tories as far as they're concerned. Which is only to be expected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    edited December 2019
    @MikeL

    You can blink them to see the difference (not much):

    https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY - using end date
    https://imgur.com/1XRrg7b - using mid-point
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    HP remains at 50% then

    Have you put any money on considering no overall majority is at 3.85ish on Betfair?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Watford to be relegated 1/4
    Conservative majority 4/11
    (Ladbrokes)
    Implies that Corbyn's chances are only marginally better than Watford's.
    Far too early to write off Watford. As a West Brom supporter I recall the year of the Great Escape....
  • Very little overall movement on Betfair's Conservative Majority market, currently available to buy at 1.39 = 1.37 net of their 5% commission.
    Based on an 8% - 10% lead in the polls, which appear stable and with only 5 days to go until polling day, this looks like surprisingly generous potential return. But for some reason, I like others are hesitating from grabbing some of this apparent "bargain".
  • ydoethur said:

    Nobidexx said:

    The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.

    I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.

    The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
    The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.

    I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
    They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
    There is no such thing as too many pubs.
  • I'm watching Airplane! for the thirty-eight time.

    Never gets old.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!

    Possibly not the latter.

    Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
    Do you think IDS could be a victim to the north London labour surge?
    He won by 5% in 2017 and I think he will hold it by about the same margin.

    Raab is probably more at risk than IDS now though both will be close
    I agree IDS will just be ok. Raab will do better. There are lots of squueky LDs in Epsom but the quiet successful voters who can't afford Corbyn will get out for Raab. Maj 10,000.

    But I did forecast Con Maj 20,000 in Kingston and Surbiton last time. That went well!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,684
    Nobidexx said:


    The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.

    I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.

    I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.

    On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.

    Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.

    I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
    Hi Nobidexx, you've expressed very well what I have been thinking. More polling from the Midlands and Northern English Labour-held seats would be useful because the national level polling could well be masking variations in swing across the country.

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    I'm watching Airplane! for the thirty-eight time.

    Never gets old.

    Shirley not!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    Where does Lab 35 come from? Lab shares:

    ComRes (Miller) - 36
    ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
    Opinium - 31
    That went well then. You are correct

    Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
    I’m fairly certain a Snowball counts as at least one of your five a day if the recipe is what I think it is. Cheers!
    Has to have at least 3 cocktail Cherries per glass. Advocaat Lime Cordial and R Whites. Best Advocaat is Cooymans none of that Warnincks dhite the Dutch wouldnt let their pawsers drink that

    Pimms is best for 5 a day imo (extra Cucumber)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    It's hard to see where Labour can get many more votes from now without a LD vote collapse. I don't see that happening ecause of Corbyn and the anti-semitism issue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,227

    ydoethur said:

    Nobidexx said:

    The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.

    https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270

    North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.

    I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.

    The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
    The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.

    I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
    They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
    There is no such thing as too many pubs.
    You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
  • Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
    No.

    I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
    I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
    I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.

    They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
    So, you want greater austerity?
    I want the country to live within its means.

    During the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    There has been no austerity.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2019
    Hmmm poll leads between 6% and 15%. That's a huge range.

    Getting very mixed anecdotal evidence from friends who are canvassers (LD and Labour). The uncertainty continues...

    My 25 to 75 Tory majority prediction is now amended to a range between Tories short by 10 and Tory majority of 90.
  • Jason said:

    https://twitter.com/search?q="Gary Neville"&src=trend_click

    Gary Neville gifting the Tories even more Labour leave voters at the election. Thank you, Gary.

    Does anyone care about what comes out of his mouth?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    https://twitter.com/search?q="Gary Neville"&src=trend_click

    Gary Neville gifting the Tories even more Labour leave voters at the election. Thank you, Gary.

    WTF? Surely everyone working in any form of TV & radio media gets the briefing on political impartiality the week before an election?
    All Neville will succeed in doing is infuriating Labour leave voters. His stupid little rant will end up being counter-productive.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Ouch. Corbyn with a lower approval rating than Swinson?

    His campaign really has been poor, hasn’t it?
    Lib dems down 4% but labour up only 1%?
    That's good for a sizeable tory majority
This discussion has been closed.