I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.
I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.
I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
It's the banner ad on youtube for all UK users all day. Just had a look and Labour youtube channel hasn't released anything for a week, and none of it's last 10 videos managed above 7k views
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?
Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5 Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4
If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
Mainly as it is very Remain and helped by heavy Labour tactical voting.
However in Remain voting Putney Labour is getting no swing from the Tories at all and in Remain voting Southport there is a swing from Labour to the Tories.
Labour needs a swing from the Tories in Remain seats to make up for the swing to the Tories in Leave seats, it is not getting it, only the LDs are
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
Quite cleverly done, with lots of careful touches - the warm Scottish accent, clashing ironically with the contempt many of the most strident English Leavers feel for Scotland and the Union, and the absurd emphasis on a humanitarian kindness of healing wounds that would flow from "getting Brexit done". It might be targeted particularly at female voters hostile to Johnson, and it might have some effect if that's the target group.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
Quite cleverly done, with lots of careful touches - the warm Scottish accent, clashing ironically with the contempt many of the most strident English Leavers feel for Scotland and the Union, and the absurd emphasis on a humanitarian kindness of healing wounds that would flow from "getting Brexit done". It might be targeted particularly at female voters hostile to Johnson, and it might have some effect in that target group.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.
Result 2017 Conservative 14337 (+3.1%) Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%) Plaid 3170 Lib dem 941
Get on it.
Welcome to PB.com with your very first post. Caution is required I would suggest as regards your suggestion of backing Labour's Emily Owen to win Aberconwy. Electoral Calculus reckon the Tories have a 71% chance of winning this seat with Labour languishing on 27%. Based on those percentages, I'd want much better odds than the 5/2 you quote, but good luck anyway.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
I guess we’ll just have to hope the LibDems don’t miss out by two, then.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
No.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
Really good article from a couple of days ago by Douglas Carswell regarding online spending.
TL:DR Tories haven't been spending much, up until today. They've been trying small volumes of literally thousands of different ads, to see what sticks with the public.
It's the Vote Leave playbook, and there are quite a few of the same people involved.
Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983
How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
This is roughly where I'm at as well.
Will involve some breaching of the Red Wall, and will be fascinating to see where that occurs.
It will indeed be fascinating, but tonight's constituency polls leave you as much in the dark as before re the Red Wall. None are in seats where the Conservatives are looking to pick up seats from Labour. All seats where the Conservatives are playing defence. Of the 26 seats polled in total, only 4 (Workington, Gedling, Grimsby, Wrexham) offer an insight to the pivotal question that will define the outcome of this election.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?
Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5 Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4
If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
Guildford is not easily amenable to usual analysis in this election. Milton is taking a chunk of Conservative voters (and has taken so many of the local workers that Angela Richardson has had to beg for reinforcement from other seats). The Conservatives have also been extremely stupid in selecting a rabid brexiteer to replace Milton in a seat which is heavily remain. Add in that Franklin is a local and repeat candidate for the LDs, and a much better candidate than her predecessor. Then you have the local factors. The local plan, put forward (and forced through at the last minute before May) was so unpopular that the Conservatives are no longer even the second biggest group on the council. To put it into perspective, sitting Conservative councillors have openly supported candidates opposing the Conservative in some elections due to the plan issue over the last few years. Then there was the former Conservative leader of Guildford council, who resigned and went off in a huff after losing a referendum on having an empowered Mayor - and that was after he was ridiculed for supporting his mistress (another Conservative councillor) who was convicted for impersonating a barrister. You could not invent some of the stuff the local Conservatives have got up to.
So in normal circumstances the Conservatives would retain the seat comfortably. But they have certainly done everything in their power to give it away.
The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.
I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.
I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.
Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.
I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
No.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.
They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.
I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.
I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.
Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.
I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
The behaviour of the Labour Leave voters continues to be the great imponderable. On the one hand, they might actually resist the urge to run home and decline to vote Labour. On the other, they could back the Brexit Party or sit on their hands rather than cross right over to the Conservatives, which would of course halve the effect of their actions on Labour's majorities in the Lab-Con marginals. We shall just have to wait and see.
I doubt there's much could be done - he's been in the low negative 40s net approval all year, people's opinions of him are largely fixed. All the free coverage and giveaways in a campaign can't shift that much more than a few points max.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
No.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.
They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
Very little overall movement on Betfair's Conservative Majority market, currently available to buy at 1.39 = 1.37 net of their 5% commission. Based on an 8% - 10% lead in the polls, which appear stable and with only 5 days to go until polling day, this looks like surprisingly generous potential return. But for some reason, I like others are hesitating from grabbing some of this apparent "bargain".
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!
Possibly not the latter.
Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
Do you think IDS could be a victim to the north London labour surge?
He won by 5% in 2017 and I think he will hold it by about the same margin.
Raab is probably more at risk than IDS now though both will be close
I agree IDS will just be ok. Raab will do better. There are lots of squueky LDs in Epsom but the quiet successful voters who can't afford Corbyn will get out for Raab. Maj 10,000.
But I did forecast Con Maj 20,000 in Kingston and Surbiton last time. That went well!
The MRP shows Guildford as leaning Tory but definitely competitive. The Lib Dems would be fancying their chances even without encouragement from Deltapoll.
I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.
I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
On the other hand, the Survation constituency polls in labour leave seats have systematically shown double digit tory leads (15 in Wrexham, 11 in Workington, 13 in Great Grimsby), whereas Yougov's MRP has them being very tight (in the 1-4% range, mainly due to labour polling much higher), despite Survation having consistently showed an equivalent or lower national lead than Yougov. One of them is clearly wrong here.
Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.
I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
Hi Nobidexx, you've expressed very well what I have been thinking. More polling from the Midlands and Northern English Labour-held seats would be useful because the national level polling could well be masking variations in swing across the country.
Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
I’m fairly certain a Snowball counts as at least one of your five a day if the recipe is what I think it is. Cheers!
Has to have at least 3 cocktail Cherries per glass. Advocaat Lime Cordial and R Whites. Best Advocaat is Cooymans none of that Warnincks dhite the Dutch wouldnt let their pawsers drink that
It's hard to see where Labour can get many more votes from now without a LD vote collapse. I don't see that happening ecause of Corbyn and the anti-semitism issue.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
No.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
I don't think there's any fundamental change economically - the Conservatives believe in living beyond their means and bribing voters.
They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
So, you want greater austerity?
I want the country to live within its means.
During the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid:
Comments
I'm still getting to grips with the fact that we've now had these two big sets of constituency surveys from Deltapoll (3 tonight and 5 a couple of days ago) which agree fairly closely with the MRP. IIRC even the two that are furthest out, Beaconsfield and Guildford, are both unusual contests with ex-Tory independents muddying the waters. Taken together with the accuracy of the MRP in 2017, it gives one a certain degree of confidence that it may be getting reasonably close to predicting the final result this time as well.
I'd go so far as to say that I now expect the Tuesday night update to give something very close to the General Election result. As I've said previously, whilst I won't be 100% confident of a surprise until the outcome is known for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that the MRP will be vindicated again.
https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
However in Remain voting Putney Labour is getting no swing from the Tories at all and in Remain voting Southport there is a swing from Labour to the Tories.
Labour needs a swing from the Tories in Remain seats to make up for the swing to the Tories in Leave seats, it is not getting it, only the LDs are
Quite cleverly done, with lots of careful touches - the warm Scottish accent, clashing ironically with the contempt many of the most strident English Leavers feel for Scotland and the Union, and the absurd emphasis on a humanitarian kindness of healing wounds that would flow from "getting Brexit done". It might be targeted particularly at female voters hostile to Johnson, and it might have some effect if that's the target group.
A flat line for both parties...
Possibly not the latter.
Welcome to PB.com with your very first post. Caution is required I would suggest as regards your suggestion of backing Labour's Emily Owen to win Aberconwy. Electoral Calculus reckon the Tories have a 71% chance of winning this seat with Labour languishing on 27%. Based on those percentages, I'd want much better odds than the 5/2 you quote, but good luck anyway.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
Note that the commitment is basically nothing compared to the previous manifestos. Quite a long way down the pecking order for things to do...
You have same date for both tonight's ComRes polls even though Telegraph (4-5 Dec) is more recent than Miller (2-5 Dec).
TL:DR Tories haven't been spending much, up until today. They've been trying small volumes of literally thousands of different ads, to see what sticks with the public.
It's the Vote Leave playbook, and there are quite a few of the same people involved.
https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/
I could go back and also save the start date, so the code calculates the mid-point automatically. Hopefully doesn't change much.
Now the question is how it translates into seats.
Raab is probably more at risk than IDS now though both will be close
That article seems to think that humans never had rights before the ECHR, and only have them now because of it.
So in normal circumstances the Conservatives would retain the seat comfortably. But they have certainly done everything in their power to give it away.
Thanks again.
Observer wants the logjam to contine?
Given that none of these seats are even in the top 20 list for the tories (they're in 5-10% majority range), if Survation is right labour will probably perform even worse than predicted in their leave seats and could easily lose 50-60 seats, even on an only 10% lead. On the other hand, it would imply labour is performing a bit better in more remain parts of the country (they might get back to the 80%+ they got in 2017 in their safest Liverpool and London seats, the MRP is only showing them in the 60s there) and maybe take a couple tory seats in London, like Chipping Barnet or Putney.
I think it's more likely that Survation is right here, as most of the increase in labour's vote share during the campaign seems to have come from the libdems, which wouldn't help them very much in their leave seats.
Beyond that, who knows what they might come up with? Raising the basic state pension to bring it into line with average earnings, perhaps?
They did so under Cameron and they do so under Boris.
Gary Neville gifting the Tories even more Labour leave voters at the election. Thank you, Gary.
Dirty rotten U.K. society on the slide. 🙁
His campaign really has been poor, hasn’t it?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203422629409050624
I doubt there's much could be done - he's been in the low negative 40s net approval all year, people's opinions of him are largely fixed. All the free coverage and giveaways in a campaign can't shift that much more than a few points max.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
Conservative majority 4/11
(Ladbrokes)
Implies that Corbyn's chances are only marginally better than Watford's.
You can blink them to see the difference (not much):
https://imgur.com/pWjsrvY - using end date
https://imgur.com/1XRrg7b - using mid-point
Based on an 8% - 10% lead in the polls, which appear stable and with only 5 days to go until polling day, this looks like surprisingly generous potential return. But for some reason, I like others are hesitating from grabbing some of this apparent "bargain".
Never gets old.
But I did forecast Con Maj 20,000 in Kingston and Surbiton last time. That went well!
Pimms is best for 5 a day imo (extra Cucumber)
During the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf
There has been no austerity.
Getting very mixed anecdotal evidence from friends who are canvassers (LD and Labour). The uncertainty continues...
My 25 to 75 Tory majority prediction is now amended to a range between Tories short by 10 and Tory majority of 90.
That's good for a sizeable tory majority