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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON majority remains the strong betting favourite

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited December 2019
    Back up to 72% I see

    Oh - and first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited December 2019
    The LDs now clearly the most middle class party while both the Tories and Labour do better with working class than middle class voters, though the Tories still lead with middle class voters overall. https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Any chance we could get this graph put on a thread header once a day?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited December 2019
    Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse by a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs now clearly the most middle class party as both the Tories and Labour do better with working class voters ttps://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328?s=20

    So only one party, the Snobby Party ;), is much affected by class demographics ...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Been offline for 10 hours, just catching up with the latest polling. The Guildford constituency poll is interesting. LDs 1% ahead.
  • Jason said:

    Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.

    Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Chameleon said:
    That will increase trouser sales tomorrow
  • RobD said:

    Any chance we could get this graph put on a thread header once a day?

    It might be an idea to reproduce it at 9:30pm on Thursday, when everyone is in mid-meltdown.
  • RobD said:
    2001 called it wants its polling back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
  • Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I wonder how many Returning Officers have made public their reservations about postal votes?

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/postal-voting-needs-to-change-peterborough-city-council-tells-government-1-9165826

    I was surprised to find this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited December 2019
    nichomar said:

    Chameleon said:
    That will increase trouser sales tomorrow
    Once there was a treasure ship on its way back to port. About halfway there, it was approached by a pirate, skull and crossbones waving in the breeze!

    "Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.

    "First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.

    Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.

    A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!

    "Captain, captain, what should we do?"

    "First mate, bring me my red shirt!"

    The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.

    "It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."

    A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!

    "Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.

    The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Opinium is incredible. Even if they are a few points out it’s a big majority. Never thought I’d see that 4 days out
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't changed the average of 43/33/13 so far.

    Unless Opinium’s bar chart is correct!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Been offline for 10 hours, just catching up with the latest polling. The Guildford constituency poll is interesting. LDs 1% ahead.

    You mean you have misses CHB and Mysticrose... ramping
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.

    Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
    He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,944
    edited December 2019

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    Isn't pharma a standard term? Where is Charles when we need him? Big Pharma, on the other hand...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Sean_F said:

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
    I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
  • nichomar said:

    Chameleon said:
    That will increase trouser sales tomorrow
    Unspecified "Other" shown as being 5% has to be a nonsense ... this has to be at least 7%. I appreciate there has to be a rounding element, but this just looks stupid.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    Chameleon said:
    That will increase trouser sales tomorrow
    Once there was a treasure ship on its way back to port. About halfway there, it was approached by a pirate, skull and crossbones waving in the breeze!

    "Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.

    "First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.

    Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.

    A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!

    "Captain, captain, what should we do?"

    "First mate, bring me my red shirt!"

    The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.

    "It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."

    A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!

    "Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.

    The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
    Everybody who watched Game of Thrones knows that joke.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Did you see the Wrexham poll?

    Con 44%
    Lab 29%
  • ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
    I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
    Hunger isn’t really an issue anywhere nowadays, except areas of conflict.
  • Despite the net negative rating of -2%, @BorisJohnson retains the best approval ratings of the three main party leaders by a sizeable margin #ge2019 https://t.co/U2JZ0tVoMR
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    Opinium is incredible. Even if they are a few points out it’s a big majority. Never thought I’d see that 4 days out

    46% would be the highest share for any party since 1970. I don't think it'll happen because soft Tories will peel off to other options.
  • Brom said:

    Opinium is incredible. Even if they are a few points out it’s a big majority. Never thought I’d see that 4 days out

    But we had big numbers on eve of 2017 GE.
  • ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
    I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
    Isn't it often a sign of success when rice societies convert to grain societies ?

    Certainly grain production seems to be much more mechanized and higher productivity.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Brom said:

    Opinium is incredible. Even if they are a few points out it’s a big majority. Never thought I’d see that 4 days out

    But we had big numbers on eve of 2017 GE.
    We also had some very small ones. No sign of that so far.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,269
    edited December 2019
    Ridiculous story. Patients want effective drug treatment, but the Grauniad doesn't want researchers to see data to help develop them. It's anti-scientific obscurantism dressed up as a Labour dog-whistle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    It'll be interesting to compare this to the final YouGov MRP data.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Just back from dinner. Although not yielding precisely the same results (that would be too much to ask for) once again the latest crop of constituency polls are giving vote shares in reasonably close agreement with the YouGov MRP. Given both what happened in 2017 and the way on which the MRP and these Deltapoll numbers keep on stacking up over and over again, there has to be a decent chance that the Tuesday night revision of the MRP and the final result will be in fairly close agreement? I mean, obviously there could be a complete surprise still, but the odds must be reckoned to be against it?

    I won't be rid of the spectre of the Labour robots going home until it is proven by the results that this has not happened. Others may not feel so reticent.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited December 2019

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally no one is buying it.
  • It’s easy for mistakes to slip in, but we’re not about to shake the polling world up that much. In fact, not a Labour surge, but the almost exact same as last week. #ge2019 https://t.co/Y3aOBmqKDW
  • Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Andy_JS said:

    Been offline for 10 hours, just catching up with the latest polling. The Guildford constituency poll is interesting. LDs 1% ahead.

    You mean you have misses CHB and Mysticrose... ramping
    That would be any day of the week to be honest....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
    I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
    Hunger isn’t really an issue anywhere nowadays, except areas of conflict.
    I think you’re confusing ‘hunger’ and ‘famine.’ One is where you do not have more than at best a bare sufficiency to eat. The other is where people die from malnutrition.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.

    You never disappoint
  • Andy_JS said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Did you see the Wrexham poll?

    Con 44%
    Lab 29%
    And their football team won today. Must lighten the local mood a little.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    The Conservatives are plainly not in trouble in Wales or Scotland, have little to lose in London, and can afford big drops in support in the London Stockbroker Belt. The message is that they are getting votes where they need them.
  • It's interesting how some posters only attack "rampers" who have different views to them. Many of those doing the attacking seem to be "rampers" themselves.

    Perhaps rather than attacking each other for daring to have different opinions, we should actually argue about the arguments themselves rather than automatically going to them being wrong because they happen to disagree. I've learnt things from both sides here - and often some of the best betting advice has been from people I disagree with.

    There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.
  • Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    So show us some constituency polling in Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    The more one seeks to prevent publicly a Tory majority the larger that majority will become, these bloody idiots need to operate below the radar for God’s sake. It’s a huge Tory majority and we have nothing to fear from corbyn! But realistically it is a 60+ Tory majority and labour below 200. Why? Because many lib dems could never ever vote for corbyn in the same way they could never vote for Johnson.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    LOL at their tag line “We campaign to stop Brexit by any means” - hardly impartial observers.

    Would someone like to tell them how many votes across marginal seats stopped the Tories getting a majority two years ago?
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.

    You never disappoint
    Normally you're all over antisemitism I didn't want you to miss out and rant against antisemites.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    On topic, 1.39 still holding up, despite half a million going on the market today.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    It's interesting how some posters only attack "rampers" who have different views to them. Many of those doing the attacking seem to be "rampers" themselves.


    There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.

    Yep it's very disappointing. More akin to Paul Staines' website than one dedicated to political betting.

  • Ave_it said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
    Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.

    Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
    He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
    Tories dont understand OFCOM rules a block of ice doesn't breach OFCOM rules

    @bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"

    Well done Gary Neville

  • Probably doesn't need saying but it's worth bearing in mind the significant MoE inherent in any constituency poll.

    Remember Ashcroft 2015.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited December 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
    No.

    I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
  • BETTING TIP

    *Labour to win Aberconwy. 5/2*

    Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.

    Result 2017
    Conservative 14337 (+3.1%)
    Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%)
    Plaid 3170
    Lib dem 941

    Get on it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.

    Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
    He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
    Tories dont understand OFCOM rules a block of ice doesn't breach OFCOM rules

    @bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"

    Well done Gary Neville

    Is that opinion, or fact? :)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20
  • That's one of the best campaigning photos I've seen since Gordon Brown and the Elvis impersonator.

    Oh dear, just remembered what happened next.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Ave_it said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
    Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
    That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Amazing difference between Opinium and ComRes :open_mouth:
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The Independent have picked up Gary Nevilles comment and are running with it like Jo Swinson after a rubbish smock in the sales. Apparently discussing immigration and control of it fuels racism. Gary should stick to catching flies with his slack jaw
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    I don't think you can use two Survation polls. The one with constituency prompting will be more accurate.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    Brom said:

    Opinium is incredible. Even if they are a few points out it’s a big majority. Never thought I’d see that 4 days out

    46% would be the highest share for any party since 1970. I don't think it'll happen because soft Tories will peel off to other options.
    Simpler than that. The 46% looks like a statistical outlier at this stage of the game.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    I've laid Ed in Doncaster North. Don't expect him to go down but very profitable if it happens.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited December 2019

    The Independent have picked up Gary Nevilles comment and are running with it like Jo Swinson after a rubbish smock in the sales. Apparently discussing immigration and control of it fuels racism. Gary should stick to catching flies with his slack jaw

    He's going to get in trouble with those remarks. It was a direct politically motivated attack.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
    Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
    That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
    After 2014 (and indeed last season*) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.

    We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).

    We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.

    *97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,219
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
    It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:

    - the LibDems in the Remain south
    - Labour and LibDems in London
    - SNP in Scotland
    - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe)
    +
    - the c 8 down they start with from last time.

    This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.

    My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.

    My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
    Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
    That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
    After 2014 (and indeed last season) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.

    We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).

    We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
    TSE, lol, Liverpool are going to win the title. Nailed on certainty.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited December 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    Where does Lab 35 come from? Lab shares:

    ComRes (Miller) - 36
    ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
    Opinium - 31
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
    You're expecting a Conservative majority of about 75+ ?
  • Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    Floater said:
    The Jews/Soros according some Brexiteers.

    Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
    TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
    Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
    That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
    After 2014 (and indeed last season*) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.

    We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).

    We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.

    *97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
    At least you are not a Sunderland fan, seeing you side losing to giants of football like Wycombe Wanderers.
  • Sean_F said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    The Conservatives are plainly not in trouble in Wales or Scotland, have little to lose in London, and can afford big drops in support in the London Stockbroker Belt. The message is that they are getting votes where they need them.
    It suggests the pincer movement against them may come in the next election after this one.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
    I'm more with you.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?

    Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
    Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4

    If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
    You’ll find that “big” is frequently added before “pharma” to emphasise the underlying evil.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
    It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:

    - the LibDems in the Remain south
    - Labour and LibDems in London
    - SNP in Scotland
    - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe)
    +
    - the c 8 down they start with from last time.

    This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.

    My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.

    My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
    No polling released at any point in the campaign supports losses on that scale, no polling supports Labour or PC gaining Tory seats in Wales so you are arguing from a false premise. If the Tories poll low 40s similar to last time then they will lose at worst a small handful of seats. Labour need to find votes and fast to avoid losing 40 or 50
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    I don't think you can use two Survation polls. The one with constituency prompting will be more accurate.
    I havent used any Survation Polls!!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited December 2019
    Dear voters of the UK (as it is at currently composed):

    SURPRISE US
  • Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
    It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:

    - the LibDems in the Remain south
    - Labour and LibDems in London
    - SNP in Scotland
    - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe)
    +
    - the c 8 down they start with from last time.

    This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.

    My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.

    My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
    But you specifically mentioned constituency polling in Labour heartlands.

    Now perhaps I've missed some but the only such constituency polling I've seen has been from Workington, Grimsby and Wrexham. Plus arguably Berwick - a Conservative constituency in a Labour heartland.

    And all of those have shown strong swings to the Conservatives.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 20 to 40 is my prediction but Labour to get its lowest number of seats since 1983


    How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
    Tories to gain about 40 seats from Labour but lose about 10 to 15 to the SNP and LDs
    I think the Conservatives will gain 60 from Labour, and lose just 5-8 (net) to the LDs and the SNP.
    This is roughly where I'm at as well.

    Will involve some breaching of the Red Wall, and will be fascinating to see where that occurs.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    Where does Lab 35 come from? Lab shares:

    ComRes (Miller) - 36
    ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
    Opinium - 31
    That went well then. You are correct

    Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    It's on the front page of YouTube
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This evening's national polls haven't so far changed the average of 43/33/13.

    36/35/31 for Lab = 34 mean or 35 median
    46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
    Where does Lab 35 come from? Lab shares:

    ComRes (Miller) - 36
    ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
    Opinium - 31
    That went well then. You are correct

    Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
    Been reading polls on The Canary, have we? :D
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    BigRich said:

    I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?

    If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?

    All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?

    Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?

    How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s

    I've seen the link on Facebook today, but haven't bothered to click on it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).

    If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.

    Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
    You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20

    I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
    I don't want to take issue for the sake of it but you do know what the 2017 Guildford result was?

    Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
    Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4

    If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
    So you are on the late shift...
This discussion has been closed.