The LDs now clearly the most middle class party while both the Tories and Labour do better with working class than middle class voters, though the Tories still lead with middle class voters overall. https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328?s=20
The LDs now clearly the most middle class party as both the Tories and Labour do better with working class voters ttps://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328?s=20
So only one party, the Snobby Party , is much affected by class demographics ...
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
Once there was a treasure ship on its way back to port. About halfway there, it was approached by a pirate, skull and crossbones waving in the breeze!
"Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.
"First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.
Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.
A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!
"Captain, captain, what should we do?"
"First mate, bring me my red shirt!"
The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.
"It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."
A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!
"Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.
The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.
Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
Isn't pharma a standard term? Where is Charles when we need him? Big Pharma, on the other hand...
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
Unspecified "Other" shown as being 5% has to be a nonsense ... this has to be at least 7%. I appreciate there has to be a rounding element, but this just looks stupid.
Once there was a treasure ship on its way back to port. About halfway there, it was approached by a pirate, skull and crossbones waving in the breeze!
"Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.
"First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.
Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.
A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!
"Captain, captain, what should we do?"
"First mate, bring me my red shirt!"
The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.
"It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."
A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!
"Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.
The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
Everybody who watched Game of Thrones knows that joke.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
Hunger isn’t really an issue anywhere nowadays, except areas of conflict.
Despite the net negative rating of -2%, @BorisJohnson retains the best approval ratings of the three main party leaders by a sizeable margin #ge2019 https://t.co/U2JZ0tVoMR
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
Isn't it often a sign of success when rice societies convert to grain societies ?
Certainly grain production seems to be much more mechanized and higher productivity.
Ridiculous story. Patients want effective drug treatment, but the Grauniad doesn't want researchers to see data to help develop them. It's anti-scientific obscurantism dressed up as a Labour dog-whistle.
Just back from dinner. Although not yielding precisely the same results (that would be too much to ask for) once again the latest crop of constituency polls are giving vote shares in reasonably close agreement with the YouGov MRP. Given both what happened in 2017 and the way on which the MRP and these Deltapoll numbers keep on stacking up over and over again, there has to be a decent chance that the Tuesday night revision of the MRP and the final result will be in fairly close agreement? I mean, obviously there could be a complete surprise still, but the odds must be reckoned to be against it?
I won't be rid of the spectre of the Labour robots going home until it is proven by the results that this has not happened. Others may not feel so reticent.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally no one is buying it.
It’s easy for mistakes to slip in, but we’re not about to shake the polling world up that much. In fact, not a Labour surge, but the almost exact same as last week. #ge2019 https://t.co/Y3aOBmqKDW
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
I think we should worry about Big Bread. Did you know that 50% of people who consume bread are above the median weight?
I’m surprised it’s as low as that. Aren’t many places where hunger is an issue traditionally rice rather than bread based diets?
Hunger isn’t really an issue anywhere nowadays, except areas of conflict.
I think you’re confusing ‘hunger’ and ‘famine.’ One is where you do not have more than at best a bare sufficiency to eat. The other is where people die from malnutrition.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Did you see the Wrexham poll?
Con 44% Lab 29%
And their football team won today. Must lighten the local mood a little.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
The Conservatives are plainly not in trouble in Wales or Scotland, have little to lose in London, and can afford big drops in support in the London Stockbroker Belt. The message is that they are getting votes where they need them.
It's interesting how some posters only attack "rampers" who have different views to them. Many of those doing the attacking seem to be "rampers" themselves.
Perhaps rather than attacking each other for daring to have different opinions, we should actually argue about the arguments themselves rather than automatically going to them being wrong because they happen to disagree. I've learnt things from both sides here - and often some of the best betting advice has been from people I disagree with.
There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
So show us some constituency polling in Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
The more one seeks to prevent publicly a Tory majority the larger that majority will become, these bloody idiots need to operate below the radar for God’s sake. It’s a huge Tory majority and we have nothing to fear from corbyn! But realistically it is a 60+ Tory majority and labour below 200. Why? Because many lib dems could never ever vote for corbyn in the same way they could never vote for Johnson.
It's interesting how some posters only attack "rampers" who have different views to them. Many of those doing the attacking seem to be "rampers" themselves.
There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.
Yep it's very disappointing. More akin to Paul Staines' website than one dedicated to political betting.
Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.
Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
Tories dont understand OFCOM rules a block of ice doesn't breach OFCOM rules
@bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"
Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.
Result 2017 Conservative 14337 (+3.1%) Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%) Plaid 3170 Lib dem 941
Gary Neville blaming the PM and Brexit for the racist abuse of a solitary Man City fan. He's crossed the line big time there.
Yeah, Boris Johnson would never use the term piccaninnies or use the language of the far right when describing Islamic women.
He should not be airing his personal political opinions in his capacity as a sports commentator. Nobody should, plus I understand it's breaking OFCOM rules.
Tories dont understand OFCOM rules a block of ice doesn't breach OFCOM rules
@bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
The Independent have picked up Gary Nevilles comment and are running with it like Jo Swinson after a rubbish smock in the sales. Apparently discussing immigration and control of it fuels racism. Gary should stick to catching flies with his slack jaw
The Independent have picked up Gary Nevilles comment and are running with it like Jo Swinson after a rubbish smock in the sales. Apparently discussing immigration and control of it fuels racism. Gary should stick to catching flies with his slack jaw
He's going to get in trouble with those remarks. It was a direct politically motivated attack.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
After 2014 (and indeed last season*) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.
We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).
We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
*97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:
- the LibDems in the Remain south - Labour and LibDems in London - SNP in Scotland - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe) + - the c 8 down they start with from last time.
This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.
My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.
My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
After 2014 (and indeed last season) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.
We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).
We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
TSE, lol, Liverpool are going to win the title. Nailed on certainty.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
TSE do you think the 14% lead (over Man City) will be blown? 😊
Yes, I'm laying Liverpool for the title, like I did last season.
That paid out last season. It won’t pay out this season.
After 2014 (and indeed last season*) I'm reconciled to Liverpool never winning the title again.
We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).
We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
*97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
At least you are not a Sunderland fan, seeing you side losing to giants of football like Wycombe Wanderers.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
The Conservatives are plainly not in trouble in Wales or Scotland, have little to lose in London, and can afford big drops in support in the London Stockbroker Belt. The message is that they are getting votes where they need them.
It suggests the pincer movement against them may come in the next election after this one.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
Clue: when someone uses the word ‘pharma’ they are almost always dingbat conspiracy loons who think we are been poisoned by global corporations. They’re usually pretty far down the rabbit hole. Mention chemtrails and watch their eyes twitch.
You’ll find that “big” is frequently added before “pharma” to emphasise the underlying evil.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:
- the LibDems in the Remain south - Labour and LibDems in London - SNP in Scotland - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe) + - the c 8 down they start with from last time.
This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.
My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.
My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
No polling released at any point in the campaign supports losses on that scale, no polling supports Labour or PC gaining Tory seats in Wales so you are arguing from a false premise. If the Tories poll low 40s similar to last time then they will lose at worst a small handful of seats. Labour need to find votes and fast to avoid losing 40 or 50
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
So show us ... Labour heartlands where it is not showing up.
It's tricky this because we don't know how many seats the Cons will need to make up for the ones they 'may' lose to:
- the LibDems in the Remain south - Labour and LibDems in London - SNP in Scotland - PC and Lab in Wales (maybe) + - the c 8 down they start with from last time.
This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.
My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.
My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
But you specifically mentioned constituency polling in Labour heartlands.
Now perhaps I've missed some but the only such constituency polling I've seen has been from Workington, Grimsby and Wrexham. Plus arguably Berwick - a Conservative constituency in a Labour heartland.
And all of those have shown strong swings to the Conservatives.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
Comments
Oh - and first
Lab surge.
How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/postal-voting-needs-to-change-peterborough-city-council-tells-government-1-9165826
I was surprised to find this.
"Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.
"First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.
Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.
A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!
"Captain, captain, what should we do?"
"First mate, bring me my red shirt!"
The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.
"It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."
A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!
"Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.
The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Con 44%
Lab 29%
Certainly grain production seems to be much more mechanized and higher productivity.
46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
I won't be rid of the spectre of the Labour robots going home until it is proven by the results that this has not happened. Others may not feel so reticent.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
You never disappoint
Perhaps rather than attacking each other for daring to have different opinions, we should actually argue about the arguments themselves rather than automatically going to them being wrong because they happen to disagree. I've learnt things from both sides here - and often some of the best betting advice has been from people I disagree with.
There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.
Would someone like to tell them how many votes across marginal seats stopped the Tories getting a majority two years ago?
@bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"
Well done Gary Neville
Remember Ashcroft 2015.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
*Labour to win Aberconwy. 5/2*
Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.
Result 2017
Conservative 14337 (+3.1%)
Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%)
Plaid 3170
Lib dem 941
Get on it.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20
Oh dear, just remembered what happened next.
We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).
We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
*97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
- the LibDems in the Remain south
- Labour and LibDems in London
- SNP in Scotland
- PC and Lab in Wales (maybe)
+
- the c 8 down they start with from last time.
This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.
My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.
My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
ComRes (Miller) - 36
ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
Opinium - 31
Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4
If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
SURPRISE US
Now perhaps I've missed some but the only such constituency polling I've seen has been from Workington, Grimsby and Wrexham. Plus arguably Berwick - a Conservative constituency in a Labour heartland.
And all of those have shown strong swings to the Conservatives.
Will involve some breaching of the Red Wall, and will be fascinating to see where that occurs.
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s
Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.