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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON majority remains the strong betting favourite
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Oh - and first
Lab surge.
How many LD gains from Con do you see for that to happen?
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/postal-voting-needs-to-change-peterborough-city-council-tells-government-1-9165826
I was surprised to find this.
"Captain, captain, what do we do?" asked the first mate.
"First mate," said the captain, "go to my cabin, open my sea chest, and bring me my red shirt." The first mate did so.
Wearing his bright red shirt, the captain exhorted his crew to fight. So inspiring was he, in fact, that the pirate ship was repelled without casualties.
A few days later, the ship was again approached, this time by two pirate sloops!
"Captain, captain, what should we do?"
"First mate, bring me my red shirt!"
The crew, emboldened by their fearless captain, fought heroically, and managed to defeat both boarding parties, though they took many casualties. That night, the survivors had a great celebration. The first mate asked the captain the secret of his bright red shirt.
"It's simple, first mate. If I am wounded, the blood does not show, and the crew continues to fight without fear."
A week passed, and they were nearing their home port, when suddenly the lookout cried that ten ships of the enemy's armada were approaching!
"Captain, captain, we're in terrible trouble, what do we do?" The first mate looked expectantly at the miracle worker.
The captain commanded, "First mate.... bring me my brown trousers!"
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Con 44%
Lab 29%
Certainly grain production seems to be much more mechanized and higher productivity.
46/42/41 for Tories = 43 mean or 42 median
I won't be rid of the spectre of the Labour robots going home until it is proven by the results that this has not happened. Others may not feel so reticent.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
You never disappoint
Perhaps rather than attacking each other for daring to have different opinions, we should actually argue about the arguments themselves rather than automatically going to them being wrong because they happen to disagree. I've learnt things from both sides here - and often some of the best betting advice has been from people I disagree with.
There's some nastiness seeping in here and I really don't like it.
Would someone like to tell them how many votes across marginal seats stopped the Tories getting a majority two years ago?
@bbclaurak gives her personal opinions daily such as "Islamophobia in the Tory party is not on the same scale as AS in Lab"
Well done Gary Neville
Remember Ashcroft 2015.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
*Labour to win Aberconwy. 5/2*
Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.
Result 2017
Conservative 14337 (+3.1%)
Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%)
Plaid 3170
Lib dem 941
Get on it.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203394822133944320?s=20
Oh dear, just remembered what happened next.
We've got a fixture pile up like never before (in the next 11 days we've got four matches, in four different competitions in three countries and two continents).
We've got two senior fit centre backs tonight.
*97 pts and only one defeat doesn't get you the title FFS!
- the LibDems in the Remain south
- Labour and LibDems in London
- SNP in Scotland
- PC and Lab in Wales (maybe)
+
- the c 8 down they start with from last time.
This election is like no other for regional and psephological variations which is one reason when even the most ardent Conservative should have a modicum of caution.
My guess is that the net loss from the above may be in the region of 20-30 seats? That's 20-30 they need to win from the Labour heartlands to enter majority territory. But this part is guesswork.
My point, which I think is valid, is that the Guildford poll should make people a little less definite than is, more-than-occasionally, the case on here of late.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
ComRes (Miller) - 36
ComRes (Telegraph) - 33
Opinium - 31
Conservative Anne Milton 30,295 54.6 -2.5
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 13,255 23.9 +8.4
If the LibDems take Guildford it's a HUGE swing (15%?) for a General Election.
SURPRISE US
Now perhaps I've missed some but the only such constituency polling I've seen has been from Workington, Grimsby and Wrexham. Plus arguably Berwick - a Conservative constituency in a Labour heartland.
And all of those have shown strong swings to the Conservatives.
Will involve some breaching of the Red Wall, and will be fascinating to see where that occurs.
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPjkTCQh3RM&t=7s
Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.