Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
Nothing too surprising except for Chingford. Would've expected a majority in the 5-10% range. The seat is pretty much 50/50 on Brexit so it isn't somewhere you'd expect a swing to labour (unlike Putney for instance).
Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
I think IDS will hold on, he is a good constituency MP and the LD vote has already been squeezed hard but Chingford is now slightly more Labour than the national average
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
He is a known equally detestable factor. Corbyn is an unknown one, with the important exception he had all of Johnson’s facts but much less experience and intelligence, and with a weaker team around him.
In this case, therefore, faced with a choice of two evils, the probabilities of how undecideds will break would appear to be (1) abstention (2) vote for the devil you know (3) vote for the devil you don’t.
Corbyn isn’t in the box seat to take advantage of indecision. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’s less likely than the alternatives.
Fortunately those of us in a seat with a third party in contention are able to make a more positive contribution with our vote.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I am seeing truly epic levels of self delusion in this post. Sanders is falling apart in the States, Corbyn is reviled in the UK and Socialism is rejected by the overwhelming majority of people for the simple reason it doesn’t work - at a most basic level, it makes people much poorer. Why do you suppose every country that has tried Socialism except North Korea and Venezuela has now abandoned it?
But then, the first two posts were not exactly impressive.
If Labour can’t put up better than this to explain their policies, no wonder they’re struggling.
Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
I think SuperJo will be fine. She is the future! 😊
Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
Nothing too surprising except for Chingford. Would've expected a majority in the 5-10% range. The seat is pretty much 50/50 on Brexit so it isn't somewhere you'd expect a swing to labour (unlike Putney for instance).
There is no Green candidate in Chingford unlike 2017, boosting Labour, there is a Green candidate in Putney
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile.
The centres of Oxford and Cambridge might beat that, but only if you count the college bars.
Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
I think SuperJo will be fine. She is the future! 😊
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
Isn't this a bit like the BBC's 1987 exit poll which said the result would be anything from the Tories short by 17 to a Con majority of 86? In other words, not telling us anything of value.
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?
If Ed Balls was leading Labour we would be having an election in May as even if Brexit had gone the same way (which is a big if) May would never have gone for an early election in 2017.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I am seeing truly epic levels of self delusion in this post. Sanders is falling apart in the States, Corbyn is reviled in the UK and Socialism is rejected by the overwhelming majority of people for the simple reason it doesn’t work - at a most basic level, it makes people much poorer. Why do you suppose every country that has tried Socialism except North Korea and Venezuela has now abandoned it?
But then, the first two posts were not exactly impressive.
If Labour can’t put up better than this to explain their policies, no wonder they’re struggling.
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.
Thanks. One I can cope with, but two in such quick succession was a bit much!
Well it looks as though the left-wing Sunday papers are praying for mass tactical voting and the remainder are expecting Boris to be visiting his 8th cousin on Friday so she offers him his job back. The problem for Gina Miller and her metropolitan Europhile chums is that the only people who are interested in the Observer and Independent are the metropolitan lefties who will have already decided to vote tactically or otherwise. Normal people are more interested in getting on with their Christmas shopping.
I look forward to reading the reactions on here on Thursday night if the SNP total proves to be sub 40:)
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
Well it looks as though the left-wing Sunday papers are praying for mass tactical voting and the remainder are expecting Boris to be visiting his 8th cousin on Friday so she offers him his job back. The problem for Gina Miller and her metropolitan Europhile chums is that the only people who are interested in the Observer and Independent are the metropolitan lefties who will have already decided to vote tactically or otherwise. Normal people are more interested in getting on with their Christmas shopping.
I look forward to reading the reactions on here on Thursday night if the SNP total proves to be sub 40:)
Are you telling me that the Guardian don't sell 10,000s of copies in the likes of Wakefield?
Between school and uni I had a gap working and I ended up living in a very rough area. The local corner shop only ever had 1 copy of the Sunday Times...I know, because I was the only one who bought it.
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Winchester is a different seat to both of those, far more rural and suburban areas with strong Tory support.
Plus Steve Brine is a moderate Tory with lots of support.
On the other hand Winchester has a much stronger recent history of being LD compared to the other two. Some might say: so what? Personally I think that sort of history does count for quite a lot.
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.
To Andrea Jenkyns.
I seem to remember something about Labour infighting having a part to play in that. Weren’t resources diverted to other, safer seats, or is my memory playing tricks?
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.
To Andrea Jenkyns.
Ed Balls, like Portillo, is a politician whose absence is making the heart grow fonder. We’re forgetting all the reasons we disliked him and seeing him as the cuddly guy on prime time TV who can sometimes talk human and takes an interest in sensible subjects like cooking (or railways, in Portillo’s case).
Of course, it helps enormously that his successors are so manifestly not up to it, as it did with Hague and Duncan Smith. The latter is weirder because Portillo did stand against him and still lost.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
And of course it has been predicted that the Tory voters will be cut off due to the snowdrifts paralysing rural areas?
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!
Be gone pest!
That is uncalled for no matter how much you disagree with another poster
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
From WP: Other counties more distant from London—such as Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire—are also sometimes regarded as home counties due to their proximity to London and their connection to the London regional economy.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile. I think I visited all of them!
St Albans makes a similar claim, although quite a few have closed in the past few years. The Campaign for Real Ale was founded there.
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!
Be gone pest!
Your posts always add so much to this site.
He's throwing a temper tantrum, the poor little darling.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
From WP: Other counties more distant from London—such as Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire—are also sometimes regarded as home counties due to their proximity to London and their connection to the London regional economy.
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.
Hampshire is not in the core Home Counties ie Essex, Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Sussex and Kent and Hertfordshire.
However it is sometimes included along with Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire as it has a lot of commuters
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?
Try doing that job and seeing how unskilled it is.
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.
To Andrea Jenkyns.
I seem to remember something about Labour infighting having a part to play in that. Weren’t resources diverted to other, safer seats, or is my memory playing tricks?
No, it was hubris/anger.
There were more Labour activists in Sheffield Hallam than in Morley and Outwood, they really wanted to defeat Nick Clegg and in Morley & Outwood thought everyone who voted Labour in 2010 and circa most of the 2010 Lib Dem would vote Labour in 2015.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seat
Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.
I was canvassed by a young momentum supporter and when I said no way he just seemed so resigned to it and even a bit down
I am sure momentums propaganda is ramping up it's hope but it will not happen
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?
Try doing that job and seeing ow unskilled it is.
Surely the question is how the government defines it. If it defines it based on income (as it does for some work visa right now I believe) then care workers who are skilled but poorly paid could well be excluded.
Joshua Fury looks like an awful matchup on tonight's showing. Though Joshua can't outreach Fury who is like a bloody Orangutan so he might mix it up more
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
And of course it has been predicted that the Tory voters will be cut off due to the snowdrifts paralysing rural areas?
No need for sarcasm. I lived in Winchester in the 90s. The Tory strongholds are some of the villages, especially on the fringes of the Meon Valley constituency. Very spread out. The strongest LD areas include the easily worked townhouses in and around the town centre. Just means you need more people to get the Conservative vote out. And they will not get any help from the Meon Valley neighbours. Flick Drummond (the Meon Valley PPC) used to be the headmistress of the Winchester Conservatives and still resents not getting the nomination many years ago.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
I knew it was around about 2.2trn GBP but only because I regularly review it as well as our national budgets and numbers.
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.
At the start of the election I did myself a spreadsheet to see what was possible, I took the Leave voting Labour seats, took of the 25 with the smallest majority's as likely Tory targets, and the 25 that where only slightly lave, i.e. all had voted leave by at least 55%
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.
Exactly my point. The city is LD and much more easily got out.
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.
That's ok. It does have a fair few commuters.
Not as many as Guildford though and isn't dominated by London feeling in quite the same way.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
Yes, Yougov MRP had Labour winning Canterbury in 2017
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
So what are your notable constituency predictions for Thursday?
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
About £2.2 trillion, and that's off the top of my head no cheating.
Comments
Some of the media are perhaps resentful that the main battleground is all a bit too northern and working class for their preference.
Predictable dog whistle.
But then, the first two posts were not exactly impressive.
If Labour can’t put up better than this to explain their policies, no wonder they’re struggling.
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
Con 43.5%
Lab 32.5%
His next tweet was about Grieve - another SE Conservative seat.
And then Hartlepool.
So still no Lab-Con constituency which I can see.
I look forward to reading the reactions on here on Thursday night if the SNP total proves to be sub 40:)
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
I quite fancy CON gain Eastbourne
Or something very like it, anyway.
To Andrea Jenkyns.
In fact, I might not do so until 10.01pm on Thursday night.
Between school and uni I had a gap working and I ended up living in a very rough area. The local corner shop only ever had 1 copy of the Sunday Times...I know, because I was the only one who bought it.
Plus Steve Brine is a moderate Tory with lots of support.
Be gone pest!
Assuming they're still interested in winning elections.
Of course, it helps enormously that his successors are so manifestly not up to it, as it did with Hague and Duncan Smith. The latter is weirder because Portillo did stand against him and still lost.
And on that rather sour note, good night.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/labour-politicians/all
From WP: Other counties more distant from London—such as Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire—are also sometimes regarded as home counties due to their proximity to London and their connection to the London regional economy.
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
However it is sometimes included along with Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire as it has a lot of commuters
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_counties
Try doing that job and seeing how unskilled it is.
There were more Labour activists in Sheffield Hallam than in Morley and Outwood, they really wanted to defeat Nick Clegg and in Morley & Outwood thought everyone who voted Labour in 2010 and circa most of the 2010 Lib Dem would vote Labour in 2015.
I am sure momentums propaganda is ramping up it's hope but it will not happen
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203436905637003264
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
Not as many as Guildford though and isn't dominated by London feeling in quite the same way.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2
Just over two trillion quid would be a better description than just under three trillion bucks.