I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot
Lincoln cathedral was once the tallest building in the world.
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.
My friend also reckons that Corbyn is going to win, or at least gain seats and rule a Hung Parliament, because there will be a "youthquake".
Maybe relatedly, I am literally her only right-voting friend - as she has often told me. The entirety of her social circle, apart from me (and she is very sociable) is Remain-voting lefties
I am astonished how you can go through life with such a narrow social set. But hey ho.
Assuming she lives in London that’s entirely believable.
I find it sad and bewildering. And I told her so. It's why she keeps being bitterly disappointed by unexpected political events.
Give her a map of England, point out where London is and then ask here to show where Workington, Grimsby and Stoke are.
Keep naming such places until she places one correctly.
Indeed. I doubt she could place any of those three.
To be fair, I'd struggle with Workington.
In fact I'm going to have a guess without Googling. Is it near Manchester? Maybe north Cheshire?
Ah, bollocks. Cumbria!
Ushaia claims to be "Fin el Mundo".
Workington should sue.
The bulkof Workington constituency is beautiful.
I believe the Honister Pass is in the Workington constituency. Arguably the most impressive landscape in England.
Also, for film fans, the location for the Khyber Pass in Carry on up the Khyber.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Completely disagree.
I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
It wasn’t the tallest for that long. Not because anyone built anything taller, but because the spire fell off.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
I was thinking the same thing. In 2017 they somehow predicted that Claire Wright would gain East Devon: she did pretty well but the Tories won it by 8,000. This time they're saying the Tories will hold it but again I don't know how they can apply the model to that type of contest.
I think that's fair comment, but the relatively well known independents aren't numerous enough to be likely to have much bearing on the overall result. AFAIK the only candidates who could plausibly be placed in that category are Grieve, Gauke, Milton, Field, Williamson, the three remaining TIGs and Claire Wright, and only 2 or 3 of them have any realistic chance of winning. The rest of the 21 Tory rebels (and the assorted ex-Labourites) aren't standing again, have had the Tory whip restored or have joined the Liberal Democrats. Am I missing anyone out?
Isn't there some talk of the Ashfield Independent doing well?
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
That's almost certainly true.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
I cannot testify to the social circle of international crossdressing male models transitioning to be a woman who have visited Antarctica, so maybe you are correct. However Lincoln is difficult to get to from (thinks for a minute) everywhere. However York Minster is reasonably easily accessible, in the better part of Yorkshire, and is close to many pleasant tea shops.
But if we are going to nominate Best Big Church In Britain, I stick my paw up for St Paul's. Westminster Abbey gets overshadowed by Parliament. However I do have a soft spot for Paddy's Wigwam or the little-known Westminster Cathedral
For me, in order, the top five from 1 to 5
Lincoln Durham Ely Wells and St Paul's London, just for the view of it from the Wobbly Bridge, inside it is boring
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.
It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
Are these two points connected?
Lots of Londoners seem to think it's very hard to get to anywhere in the UK outside the South East - but mysteriously very easy for pefrom the rest of the country to get to London. Surprisingly often one encounters a Londoner - with a good income, often a university education - who has reached his late twenties or early thirties before making it beyond the Midlands. It betrays an astonishing lack of curiousity about one's own country. Lincoln cathedral is probably not as amazing as Macchu Pichu. (I have only been to the former.) But if you live inLondon you can get thereand back in a day. It's well worth it. It's got the Magna Carta in it, for a start.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
After today's football scores and tonight's polls, as a Liverpool fan and Tory conditioned to disappointment I'm finding it hard not to get carried away.
Which is more likely in your eyes - Tories fail to get a majority, or Liverpool fail to get the title?
Tory faceplant. Liverpool were only thwarted by the relentless brilliance of Man City last season. Don't look likely this time!
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
You're an ignoramus, is what you are.
Lincoln Cathedral is one of the architectural glories of the world, and its context in the almost-perfectly preserved Medieval, Tudor and Georgian precincts of hilly old Lincoln is nigh-on miraculous.
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
Lincoln survived. It is more impressive as a building than Wells, and more poetic as a place than Salisbury. It really is a jewel.
Macchu Picchu is great, but you expect it to be great. Lincoln is the surprise.
York is better as a city, but I think Lincoln has the finer cathedral.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Completely disagree.
I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
It wasn’t the tallest for that long. Not because anyone built anything taller, but because the spire fell off.
"fell off" is a bit harsh - it was blown down by a huge storm.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Amusingly it refers to Hartlepool as Huddersfield.
Don't you love that attention to detail when making electoral predictions.
Closest results look to be Vale of Clwyd where the Tories are ahead by 0.8%, Workington where Labour is ahead by 2.1%, Chingford and Woodford Green where the Tories are ahead 46% to 44.4%, Wrexham where the Tories lead 41.4% to 36.6%, East Dunbartonshire where Swinson is ahead 38.5% to 34.2%, Winchester where the LDs are ahead 45.8% to 45.2%, Lanark and Hamilton East where the SNP lead 38.3% to 35%, Putney where the Tories are ahead 37.9% to 34.7%.
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
And where the Nazis didn't finish the job the vandals of 1960s local councils often did - Gloucester, for example.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
I was thinking the same thing. In 2017 they somehow predicted that Claire Wright would gain East Devon: she did pretty well but the Tories won it by 8,000. This time they're saying the Tories will hold it but again I don't know how they can apply the model to that type of contest.
I think that's fair comment, but the relatively well known independents aren't numerous enough to be likely to have much bearing on the overall result. AFAIK the only candidates who could plausibly be placed in that category are Grieve, Gauke, Milton, Field, Williamson, the three remaining TIGs and Claire Wright, and only 2 or 3 of them have any realistic chance of winning. The rest of the 21 Tory rebels (and the assorted ex-Labourites) aren't standing again, have had the Tory whip restored or have joined the Liberal Democrats. Am I missing anyone out?
Isn't there some talk of the Ashfield Independent doing well?
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data from whatever main thread they put up until it starts.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.
It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
Are these two points connected?
Yes. It’s a long time ago though and I can’t remember all the details.
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
And where the Nazis didn't finish the job the vandals of 1960s local councils often did - Gloucester, for example.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
That's almost certainly true.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
I cannot testify to the social circle of international crossdressing male models transitioning to be a woman who have visited Antarctica, so maybe you are correct. However Lincoln is difficult to get to from (thinks for a minute) everywhere. However York Minster is reasonably easily accessible, in the better part of Yorkshire, and is close to many pleasant tea shops.
But if we are going to nominate Best Big Church In Britain, I stick my paw up for St Paul's. Westminster Abbey gets overshadowed by Parliament. However I do have a soft spot for Paddy's Wigwam or the little-known Westminster Cathedral
For me, in order, the top five from 1 to 5
Lincoln Durham Ely Wells and St Paul's London, just for the view of it from the Wobbly Bridge, inside it is boring
I can’t really argue with that list, though I might have put Winchester in there somewhere.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data until it starts.
Luckily there is a gap after the first few seats come in.
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
And where the Nazis didn't finish the job the vandals of 1960s local councils often did - Gloucester, for example.
Indeed. I can still be reduced to quivering rage by images of what British councils did to British towns and cityscapes 1955-1985. It happened where I grew up, I saw amazing galleried Tudor coaching inns pulled down, in my childhood, for multi storey car parks and dreary shopping malls (which are now being pulled down).
So awful. I am sure it is one reason I tend towards the conservative. To CONSERVE what is obviously better, even if it is older.
Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.
Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
He did.
I haven't watched it all yet - but it's certainly engrossing
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
And where the Nazis didn't finish the job the vandals of 1960s local councils often did - Gloucester, for example.
Planners from the 1960s have a lot to answer for.
Their ideas were mainly rooted in a technocratic version of 1950s modernism, however.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
That's almost certainly true.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
I cannot testify to the social circle of international crossdressing male models transitioning to be a woman who have visited Antarctica, so maybe you are correct. However Lincoln is difficult to get to from (thinks for a minute) everywhere. However York Minster is reasonably easily accessible, in the better part of Yorkshire, and is close to many pleasant tea shops.
But if we are going to nominate Best Big Church In Britain, I stick my paw up for St Paul's. Westminster Abbey gets overshadowed by Parliament. However I do have a soft spot for Paddy's Wigwam or the little-known Westminster Cathedral
For me, in order, the top five from 1 to 5
Lincoln Durham Ely Wells and St Paul's London, just for the view of it from the Wobbly Bridge, inside it is boring
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Completely disagree.
I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
It wasn’t the tallest for that long. Not because anyone built anything taller, but because the spire fell off.
"fell off" is a bit harsh - it was blown down by a huge storm.
Talking of which the weather here is distinctly wet and windy; the forecast gales seem to have started a bit early.
Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.
Majority 11k.
Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
I've tried my parents' postcode (Rochdale) in the Momentum campaign tool, and it's suggesting Bury South and Calder Valley (understandably). No events showing for the safer seats like Ashton, Rochdale etc. They must feel confident.
I've heard that Labour have given up on Ashfield, Colne Valley, Bedford and Birmingham Northfield. But they expect to hold Hartlepool narrowly.
Their defensive line seems to be Bolsover in the north and Portsmouth South in the south.
They could be wrong, in 2017 they were appartenly very wrong in their own estimates.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data until it starts.
Luckily there is a gap after the first few seats come in.
2 and 3am look the big times....when lots of seats that really should give us an idea if the Tory Flat Cap Fred strategy is working.
I might be able to adjust scripts to scrape whatever is the most up to date stream out there in the first couple of hours, but will have to see.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Edwina Currie on Twitter seems to be suggesting that Angela Rayner might be in some difficulty in Ashton under Lyne, which would be astonishing, if true.
Majority 11k.
Has anyone been campaigning there that we know of? Seats like this surely haven't seen the footsoldiers of other seats (which is better than the way May completely mismanaged the campaign last time going deep into Labour's territory and not campaigning in marginals).
It would be something of a surprise. Ashton is number 133 on the Labour defence list. It's safer than Torfaen and Tooting.
The defence list is based on 2017 majorities when Labour had all its demographics on side. If the Labour Leave vote is fracturing, then i'd expect Ashton and for that matter the rest of Tameside to be far easier targets than either of those two. The Yougov MRP agrees.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
I went to Chester Cathedral last year. It was astonishing. Utterly beautiful. If it was in Florence or somewhere tourists would flock there. Yet I had lived within an hour of it for the majority of my life and never been.
I do have a bit of an antipathy to religion, and because it's the lical one, to the CofE in particular. So maybe that's why. Maybe it's easier to take a detached view of the beauty of someone else's church. But it's easy to marvel at these places without the religious context. Even from the outside. I'd urge everyone to take the chance to visit Lincoln cathedral, and Chester, and Liverpool, and York, and probably two dozen more.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
You're an ignoramus, is what you are.
Lincoln Cathedral is one of the architectural glories of the world, and its context in the almost-perfectly preserved Medieval, Tudor and Georgian precincts of hilly old Lincoln is nigh-on miraculous.
England used to boast quite a few of these near perfect cathedral city cores - but way too many were bombed (often deliberately) by the Nazis, from Exeter to Coventry.
Lincoln survived. It is more impressive as a building than Wells, and more poetic as a place than Salisbury. It really is a jewel.
Macchu Picchu is great, but you expect it to be great. Lincoln is the surprise.
York is better as a city, but I think Lincoln has the finer cathedral.
Lincoln is my closest city and the one I visit most often. It is indeed wonderful although I would agree York is better overall. Steep Hill used to have two wonderful Second Hand bookshops - Readers Rest and the Harlequin but both have unfortunately now shut down.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data from whatever main thread they put up until it starts.
Ah okay, if the requests are on a per-seat basis, then have it request every 5 mins starting 15 mins before the due time, and stop the requests once the data arrives?
That’s not spam, that’s just someone hitting refresh on his page.
I’ve a friend who’s a developer, who I know lurks here occasionally, who I’m probably going to be with on the night. Let me chat to him in the next couple of days and maybe I’ll PM you.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
I would be worried by a model that says 20 + 1 + 5 = 25 for the Lib Dems.
Lots of Londoners seem to think it's very hard to get to anywhere in the UK outside the South East - but mysteriously very easy for pefrom the rest of the country to get to London. Surprisingly often one encounters a Londoner - with a good income, often a university education - who has reached his late twenties or early thirties before making it beyond the Midlands. It betrays an astonishing lack of curiousity about one's own country. Lincoln cathedral is probably not as amazing as Macchu Pichu. (I have only been to the former.) But if you live inLondon you can get thereand back in a day. It's well worth it. It's got the Magna Carta in it, for a start.
I'm going to completely disagree with the consensus (I could have quoted any number of posts) and say that it doesn't surprise me at all - and that I think its entirely natural and not something to be surprised by.
People generally ignore the wonders in their own backyard not due to a lack of interest but rather a lack of pressure. People get carried away with their day to day lives and visiting somewhere like Lincoln is something easily done so can always be done in the future. Whereas holidays are rare and special so people make the most of it.
When I grew up in Victoria, Australia my parents made sure we saw everything Victoria had to offer (and much in other States too) because we had the opportunity and would make the most of it. Some of the stuff we saw I couldn't recommend highly enough if you get down there like Phillip Island's Penguin Parade - one of the most majestic and incredible sights I've ever seen. But when I returned to school almost nobody else in the class had ever seen it.
Not long down the road is something worth seeing from travelling half the world away but when its in your own backyard you take it for granted. That's not a modern or a British phenomenon its just life.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
I've been to Lincoln station - I saw the Cathedral from the train, but didn't climb up the hill on foot
Lincoln cathedral was once the tallest building in the world.
If there are as many undecideds as suggested then we might see some bigger changes in poll numbers over the last few days . And aswell as people being more certain to vote .
The picture could look even worse for Labour or alternatively a bit better .
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
True enough, but the problem is that 326 seats is nowhere near enough to see them safely through a 5 year Parliament, as indeed just the past two yeas have shown. In order to be reasonably comfortable without having to bring stretcher cases into the HoC, they really need a majority of around 40 seats or thereabouts.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Completely disagree.
I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
If it were still the tallest building in the world I might visit it. Is it as tall as the Shard? I can see that from the top of my street. Seriously, these so called profound sounding comments about London and Londoners are mostly pretty stupid. There are dozens of small towns with interesting things to see dotted around Britain. Who has visited more than a few of them? Whether they live in London or anywhere else? This doesn't tell us anything profound, it just means that busy working people don't tend to use up precious holidays visiting small towns in the East Midlands to see a Cathedral. Can you imagine what my kids would say if I dragged them to look at it? "But it used to be the tallest building in the world"! Cue much eye rolling. Does this mean my kids are metropolitan elitists?
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
I give the Conservatives a majority of between 24-64 with tonights polls.
Unless Survation's Monday morning poll shows something radically different, that would be my final forecast.
Lanark & Hamilton East: SNP maj 1,680 Don Valley: Con maj 3,245 Wrexham: Con maj 1,679 Vale of Clwyd: Con maj 310 Workington: Lab maj 883 Hartlepool: Lab maj 5,046 Putney: Con maj 1,479 Winchester: LD maj 344 East Dunbartonshire: LD maj 2,211 Esher & Walton: Con maj 3,429 Chingford & Woodford Green: Con maj 730 Beaconsfield: Con maj 8,618
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
I would be worried by a model that says 20 + 1 + 5 = 25 for the Lib Dems.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
True enough, but the problem is that 326 seats is nowhere near enough to see them safely through a 5 year Parliament, as indeed just the past two yeas have shown. In order to be reasonably comfortable without having to bring stretcher cases into the HoC, they really need a majority of around 40 seats or thereabouts.
20 was the result in 1992 and that was not a stable Parliament by any means.
Lots of Londoners seem to think it's very hard to get to anywhere in the UK outside the South East - but mysteriously very easy for pefrom the rest of the country to get to London. Surprisingly often one encounters a Londoner - with a good income, often a university education - who has reached his late twenties or early thirties before making it beyond the Midlands. It betrays an astonishing lack of curiousity about one's own country. Lincoln cathedral is probably not as amazing as Macchu Pichu. (I have only been to the former.) But if you live inLondon you can get thereand back in a day. It's well worth it. It's got the Magna Carta in it, for a start.
I'm going to completely disagree with the consensus (I could have quoted any number of posts) and say that it doesn't surprise me at all - and that I think its entirely natural and not something to be surprised by.
People generally ignore the wonders in their own backyard not due to a lack of interest but rather a lack of pressure. People get carried away with their day to day lives and visiting somewhere like Lincoln is something easily done so can always be done in the future. Whereas holidays are rare and special so people make the most of it.
When I grew up in Victoria, Australia my parents made sure we saw everything Victoria had to offer (and much in other States too) because we had the opportunity and would make the most of it. Some of the stuff we saw I couldn't recommend highly enough if you get down there like Phillip Island's Penguin Parade - one of the most majestic and incredible sights I've ever seen. But when I returned to school almost nobody else in the class had ever seen it.
Not long down the road is something worth seeing from travelling half the world away but when its in your own backyard you take it for granted. That's not a modern or a British phenomenon its just life.
I grew up in Devon. I’ve spent more time in the Soviet Union than in Cornwall.
If there are as many undecideds as suggested then we might see some bigger changes in poll numbers over the last few days . And aswell as people being more certain to vote .
The picture could look even worse for Labour or alternatively a bit better .
At this point, surely the vast majority of undecideds won't vote?
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
True enough, but the problem is that 326 seats is nowhere near enough to see them safely through a 5 year Parliament, as indeed just the past two yeas have shown. In order to be reasonably comfortable without having to bring stretcher cases into the HoC, they really need a majority of around 40 seats or thereabouts.
40 is probably a bit on the high side. We don’t have the same level of by elections as we used to.
Mid 20s would probably see them right, though it would possibly get a bit tight in the final year or so.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
Sorry to say I don't think ours stood at the last GE. We did have the Worker's Party and the Worker's Revolutionary Party, which wiki tells me are marxist-leninist and trotskyite respectively. But the CPGB (Marxist-leninist) did stand in 2015.
Zadrozny and Ashfield Independents are losing the plot somewhat in Ashfield. Strongly suspect Labour will regain seats in council elections next time. Con gain for Dec 12th
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
I think one is called the Canadian Liberal Party and the other is the Canadian Conservative Party.
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data until it starts.
Luckily there is a gap after the first few seats come in.
2 and 3am look the big times....when lots of seats that really should give us an idea if the Tory Flat Cap Fred strategy is working.
I might be able to adjust scripts to scrape whatever is the most up to date stream out there in the first couple of hours, but will have to see.
We'll get a fair bit of info from Sunderland surely won't we?
If Sunderland doesn't declare early due to a recount we'll know its a massive night, but even if the Tories fall well short there could be a lot of info about the swing.
Sunderland + Andy's spreadsheet was an early indication that we were Leaving afterall.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
You shouldn't really laugh that much because it may happen for other ideologies too.
For example the rivarly between the LD and the SDP after the merger in 1988, and the situation between the LD and Change UK is also in the same category.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Completely disagree.
I'd expect British people to visit Lincoln cathedral given it was the tallest building in the world for about 500 years or whatever it was, rather than somewhere on the other side of the world, however impressive.
If it were still the tallest building in the world I might visit it. Is it as tall as the Shard? I can see that from the top of my street. Seriously, these so called profound sounding comments about London and Londoners are mostly pretty stupid. There are dozens of small towns with interesting things to see dotted around Britain. Who has visited more than a few of them? Whether they live in London or anywhere else? This doesn't tell us anything profound, it just means that busy working people don't tend to use up precious holidays visiting small towns in the East Midlands to see a Cathedral. Can you imagine what my kids would say if I dragged them to look at it? "But it used to be the tallest building in the world"! Cue much eye rolling. Does this mean my kids are metropolitan elitists?
Come and visit the current world’s tallest building, and I’ll buy you a beer! (Offer open to all PBers).
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Very unlucky indeed. And the polls have been essentially static for some time, there's still no sign of change and the campaign period is almost over.
A Hung Parliament is still possible, but if Labour do surprise significantly on the upside it'll be down to a major polling failure (most likely caused by the Labour Leavers scuttling home on polling day,) a freakishly inefficient Tory vote distribution, or some combination of the two.
Assuming that the MRP revision on Tuesday throws up no surprises, I reckon the Tories probably have this one in the bag.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.
I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
I think it's described by Peter Hitchens as people more likely to have visited Boston, Massachusetts than Boston, Lincolnshire
Hardly surprising. I suspect Londoners are more likely to visited New York, NY than New York, Tyne & Wear. Very few people have much interest in visiting these places.
If there are as many undecideds as suggested then we might see some bigger changes in poll numbers over the last few days . And aswell as people being more certain to vote .
The picture could look even worse for Labour or alternatively a bit better .
At this point, surely the vast majority of undecideds won't vote?
That’s a fair point , I think turnout is the bigger factor .
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
Sorry to say I don't think ours stood at the last GE. We did have the Worker's Party and the Worker's Revolutionary Party, which wiki tells me are marxist-leninist and trotskyite respectively. But the CPGB (Marxist-leninist) did stand in 2015.
I was mildly surprised to see we have the Communist League standing in Wythenshawe and Sale East. There are still clearly those for whom Corbyn's Labour is insufficiently left wing.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
I would be worried by a model that says 20 + 1 + 5 = 25 for the Lib Dems.
It's all in the rounding My Wales and Scotland predictions are the averages of a number of sources including Baxter and Flavible.
I have a question regarding tactical voting. Is there any constituency polling that tries to measure what has already happened? For instance Perhaps there was a very effective candidate last time who really engaged and convinced voters to support them locally.
Has anyone asked who did you vote for last time and why?
Re. Beaconsfield (and also other seats where there's an ex-incumbent standing as an independent): I really don't see how an MRP forecast can be of any use whatsoever. By definition the MRP forecast is based on how various segments of voters are shifting between the main parties, and applying those shifts to the known profiles of the constituencies, but that methodology is surely going to break down completely when there's a high-profile independent standing.
If only there was going to be a live update on the night that would compare this ;-)
What kind of madman would make such a thing?
In all seriousness, I am slightly concerned that BBC might change web format on the night and / or I get a ban hammer for firing requests at their site.
Hoping to find a bit of time over the next few days to try and make sure I minimise the number of requests, as at the moment I am just spamming the site if I want to have it all automated.
Have it update say every 15 minutes, with a manual override for when key results come in?
Given we know when most results should be announced, I was planning on just requesting seats within certain time ranges....and do so every x mins.
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data until it starts.
Luckily there is a gap after the first few seats come in.
2 and 3am look the big times....when lots of seats that really should give us an idea if the Tory Flat Cap Fred strategy is working.
I might be able to adjust scripts to scrape whatever is the most up to date stream out there in the first couple of hours, but will have to see.
We'll get a fair bit of info from Sunderland surely won't we?
If Sunderland doesn't declare early due to a recount we'll know its a massive night, but even if the Tories fall well short there could be a lot of info about the swing.
Sunderland + Andy's spreadsheet was an early indication that we were Leaving afterall.
I am still thinking about exactly what different sheets to have. As a couple of people pointed out what I think would be best to see is if the YouGov MRP is looking good or not. If after 30-40 seats, it is looking spot on, I think it might be an early night.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
There's a Scottish Socialist Party, and a Socialist Party Scotland.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.
I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
I think it's described by Peter Hitchens as people more likely to have visited Boston, Massachusetts than Boston, Lincolnshire
Hardly surprising. I suspect Londoners are more likely to visited New York, NY than New York, Tyne & Wear. Very few people have much interest in visiting these places.
Similarly I suspect many New Yorkers are more likely to have visited London than West Virginia or Iowa.
Lots of Londoners seem to think it's very hard to get to anywhere in the UK outside the South East - but mysteriously very easy for pefrom the rest of the country to get to London. Surprisingly often one encounters a Londoner - with a good income, often a university education - who has reached his late twenties or early thirties before making it beyond the Midlands. It betrays an astonishing lack of curiousity about one's own country. Lincoln cathedral is probably not as amazing as Macchu Pichu. (I have only been to the former.) But if you live inLondon you can get thereand back in a day. It's well worth it. It's got the Magna Carta in it, for a start.
I'm going to completely disagree with the consensus (I could have quoted any number of posts) and say that it doesn't surprise me at all - and that I think its entirely natural and not something to be surprised by.
People generally ignore the wonders in their own backyard not due to a lack of interest but rather a lack of pressure. People get carried away with their day to day lives and visiting somewhere like Lincoln is something easily done so can always be done in the future. Whereas holidays are rare and special so people make the most of it.
When I grew up in Victoria, Australia my parents made sure we saw everything Victoria had to offer (and much in other States too) because we had the opportunity and would make the most of it. Some of the stuff we saw I couldn't recommend highly enough if you get down there like Phillip Island's Penguin Parade - one of the most majestic and incredible sights I've ever seen. But when I returned to school almost nobody else in the class had ever seen it.
Not long down the road is something worth seeing from travelling half the world away but when its in your own backyard you take it for granted. That's not a modern or a British phenomenon its just life.
All fair points. Maybe wr could all do to be a bit more curious.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
I went to Chester Cathedral last year. It was astonishing. Utterly beautiful. If it was in Florence or somewhere tourists would flock there. Yet I had lived within an hour of it for the majority of my life and never been.
I do have a bit of an antipathy to religion, and because it's the lical one, to the CofE in particular. So maybe that's why. Maybe it's easier to take a detached view of the beauty of someone else's church. But it's easy to marvel at these places without the religious context. Even from the outside. I'd urge everyone to take the chance to visit Lincoln cathedral, and Chester, and Liverpool, and York, and probably two dozen more.
I actually don't mind walking around a nice Cathedral for half an hour. I've visited York, Durham, Wells, Canterbury, St Paul's, Southwark, Ely, St Andrews (ruins). But I can't say I would go somewhere just to look at it. I have been to some amazing places outside of the UK, I love travelling and exploring other countries and cultures. I don't think that's something to feel bad about. People outside of London tend to forget too how big London is. How many non Londoners have visited my London borough of Lewisham? Probably not many. But we have a population of almost 300,000 - bigger than Newcastle. Why don't all the metropolitan elitists of Stoke come to Lewisham instead of going to Spain on holiday?
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppy Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
That's almost certainly true.
Of all my social circle in London, I'd bet I am the only one that's been to Lincoln Cathedral. Several of us have been to Macchu Picchu.
I cannot testify to the social circle of international crossdressing male models transitioning to be a woman who have visited Antarctica, so maybe you are correct. However Lincoln is difficult to get to from (thinks for a minute) everywhere. However York Minster is reasonably easily accessible, in the better part of Yorkshire, and is close to many pleasant tea shops.
But if we are going to nominate Best Big Church In Britain, I stick my paw up for St Paul's. Westminster Abbey gets overshadowed by Parliament. However I do have a soft spot for Paddy's Wigwam or the little-known Westminster Cathedral
For me, in order, the top five from 1 to 5
Lincoln Durham Ely Wells and St Paul's London, just for the view of it from the Wobbly Bridge, inside it is boring
That bouncy remote whispering thing in the Dome is quite good.
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
Interesting to compare this with 2001 when a 9.3% lead for Tony Blair delivered an enormous majority of 167 seats.
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?
Try doing that job and seeing how unskilled it is.
The Tories view isn’t shared by you . I have the highest regard for social care workers. Shame the party you support doesn’t . Brits don’t want to do many of the jobs migrants do.
Who is going to fill all those jobs ?
Many of the big firms have schools in the Philippines where they train care home workers (including teaching them English).
You can debate whether it is a skilled job or not. But it is a minimum wage/close to minimum wage job
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
I went to Chester Cathedral last year. It was astonishing. Utterly beautiful. If it was in Florence or somewhere tourists would flock there. Yet I had lived within an hour of it for the majority of my life and never been.
I do have a bit of an antipathy to religion, and because it's the lical one, to the CofE in particular. So maybe that's why. Maybe it's easier to take a detached view of the beauty of someone else's church. But it's easy to marvel at these places without the religious context. Even from the outside. I'd urge everyone to take the chance to visit Lincoln cathedral, and Chester, and Liverpool, and York, and probably two dozen more.
I actually don't mind walking around a nice Cathedral for half an hour. I've visited York, Durham, Wells, Canterbury, St Paul's, Southwark, Ely, St Andrews (ruins). But I can't say I would go somewhere just to look at it. I have been to some amazing places outside of the UK, I love travelling and exploring other countries and cultures. I don't think that's something to feel bad about. People outside of London tend to forget too how big London is. How many non Londoners have visited my London borough of Lewisham? Probably not many. But we have a population of almost 300,000 - bigger than Newcastle. Why don't all the metropolitan elitists of Stoke come to Lewisham instead of going to Spain on holiday?
If there are as many undecideds as suggested then we might see some bigger changes in poll numbers over the last few days . And aswell as people being more certain to vote .
The picture could look even worse for Labour or alternatively a bit better .
At this point, surely the vast majority of undecideds won't vote?
You would suspect so. Certainly if they're going to help to rescue Labour then they must both turn up and split significantly in favour of Labour. That's possible I guess, but most likely they stay at home. If you've not made your choice between Johnson and Corbyn or between Leave and Remain by this stage you're probably not going to.
I have a question regarding tactical voting. Is there any constituency polling that tries to measure what has already happened? For instance Perhaps there was a very effective candidate last time who really engaged and convinced voters to support them locally.
Has anyone asked who did you vote for last time and why?
Not that I know of, but East Devon sounds like a good example of that type of seat. There must have been massive tactical voting last time by LDs for the Independent candidate Claire Wright.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.
I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
I think it's described by Peter Hitchens as people more likely to have visited Boston, Massachusetts than Boston, Lincolnshire
Hardly surprising. I suspect Londoners are more likely to visited New York, NY than New York, Tyne & Wear. Very few people have much interest in visiting these places.
New York in North Tyneside is literally just a housing estate with a fish and chip shop called ‘the Bronx’
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
I think one is called the Canadian Liberal Party and the other is the Canadian Conservative Party.
In the days when I lived there it was the Progressive Conservative Party.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Lincoln Cathedral is a stunning building, one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK.
It’s also next to one the only two pubs I’ve every been thrown out of.
Are these two points connected?
Lots of Londoners seem to think it's very hard to get to anywhere in the UK outside the South East - but mysteriously very easy for pefrom the rest of the country to get to London.
Yeah, that’s just predictable, prejudiced bollocks I’m afraid. Usual PB anti London garbage.
Went out to Rileys in Pimlico for the Joshua fight and Tory majority 1.4, got home and it is 1.34. Biggest move in a couple of hours for many a week. Boris has negotiated the final debate, postal votes are nearly all sent and final mega polling day is done. I think the Tory campaign has been good not great and he deserves a majority. Fingers crossed!
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Marxists hate Trotskyists!
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
The squabbles of online marxists can be genuinely hilarious. The convolutedness of factional ideologues and their hatred for some other group of marxist dunces is a sight to behold.
Made me chuckle in the Canadian GE that there are 2 Communist parties of Canada, because they don't get one with one another. Talk about splitting the vote.
Sorry to say I don't think ours stood at the last GE. We did have the Worker's Party and the Worker's Revolutionary Party, which wiki tells me are marxist-leninist and trotskyite respectively. But the CPGB (Marxist-leninist) did stand in 2015.
I was mildly surprised to see we have the Communist League standing in Wythenshawe and Sale East. There are still clearly those for whom Corbyn's Labour is insufficiently left wing.
I see Mebyon Kernow are only standing in one Cornish seat - lack of ambition there, it's one less than the BNP are standing.
The Alliance for Green Socialism sounds like a hoot, and apparently the Young People's Party UK follows the ideology of Henry George, whoever that is. They stood in London and Westminster in 2017.
Women's Equality Party don't seem to be getting the kind of attention they used to, with the leader pictured with others on the front page of the Indy once.
Aontu according to wiku is a conservative, republican, eurosceptic all-ireland party.
And interestingly the Alliance are the only NI party to stand in all their constituencies.
I wonder if Londoners are less likely to have visited other parts of the UK than vice versa, ie. non-Londoners visiting London?
I am not sure I would say that, however I would say I doubt better off Londoners are visiting the left behind places like Stoke en masse for a cheeky dirty weekend away...
I read an article once that claimed yuppie Londoners were more likely to have visited that famous place in Peru than Lincoln cathedral. It was just an anecdote but it sounded like it might be true.
Why is that surprising? I bet <1% of Britain's population have been to Lincoln Cathedral. Macchu Picchu is meant to be one of the most incredible places in the world, is it surprising a lot of people from a city with high disposable incomes and good air links have visited it? I'm sure Lincoln Cathedral is nice, but it's not like it's the only Cathedral in Britain. I've been to enough Cathedrals to know that I have no real interest in seeing the one in Lincoln. Does this mean that Brexit is my fault or something?</p>
Cuzco is actually a pain to get to from the Uk, unless you are prepared to go slow and overland from Lima.
I’ve never been to Lincoln or Stoke. Perhaps I will.
I think it's described by Peter Hitchens as people more likely to have visited Boston, Massachusetts than Boston, Lincolnshire
Hardly surprising. I suspect Londoners are more likely to visited New York, NY than New York, Tyne & Wear. Very few people have much interest in visiting these places.
Similarly I suspect many New Yorkers are more likely to have visited London than West Virginia or Iowa.
Totally O/T - Caught up with the Irishman last night. A little long (I know where it should have ended, but can't say as would be a spoiler), but I thought was a cracker.
Did you think De Niro just looked odd?
He did.
I haven't watched it all yet - but it's certainly engrossing
Expect your enthusiasm to wane in the final three quarters of an hour.
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.
I hope so,was fun last time. Hopefully there will be another Marxist nutter I can vote for.
I got found out when the list of registered supporters was vetted by the local MP. Spoilsports. And they kept my three quid. Typical Trotskyist tax-grabbers!
Were you a (not-Labour) councillor at the time? I recall a few of them being booted from the lists by a vetting process.
I was somewhat undone by the fact I was the former Tory agent in the seat, county council candidate and my son was in the same school class as the Labour MP’s son. Even he couldn’t fail to recognise my name!
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
Interesting to compare this with 2001 when a 9.3% lead for Tony Blair delivered an enormous majority of 167 seats.
10.3% lead and no majority should set massive alarm bells ringing.
Or 1987 when an 11.4% lead for Thatcher delivered an enormous majority of 102. Or 1992 when a 7.4% lead led to a small majority of 22 Or 2015 when a 6.5% lead led to a small majority of 12
There's no precedence I can see for a double-digit lead not leading to a majority.
God Almighty! Can’t Carrie tell Boris to find a jacket that actually fits him? He’s not short of a bob or two, after all.
He looks as if he’s just been let out of class detention.
It must be a deliberate style, but I'm not sure for what reason. It's not the silly looking not fitting like Rees-Mogg, just scruffy looking, is that man of the people like?
Here is Anthony Wells' summary from his UK Polling Report of the four polls which have reported this evening ... very much a case of steady as you go:
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
The Tories would be unlucky not to hit 326 seats with a 10 point lead.
Adding in all tonight's polls gives the Tories a 10.3% lead and 324 seats.
I would be worried by a model that says 20 + 1 + 5 = 25 for the Lib Dems.
Yup, Wales doesn't add up.
Last GE Tories just shy of a majority with a 2-3 point lead. Now with a ten point lead your projection shows a very similar result. Extreme voting efficiency by the opposition parties?
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/07/crows-circling-labour-leadership-angela-rayner-refuses-rule/
Lincoln
Durham
Ely
Wells
and St Paul's London, just for the view of it from the Wobbly Bridge, inside it is boring
Lincoln cathedral is probably not as amazing as Macchu Pichu. (I have only been to the former.) But if you live inLondon you can get thereand back in a day. It's well worth it. It's got the Magna Carta in it, for a start.
During the Spanish Civil War, the Spanish Communists (the PCE) cracked down heavily on their supposed POUM allies because they perceived the POUM as "Trotskyite-Fascists".
If Caroline Flint is taking such a hit then Labour could be in trouble in many places.
I think Quick question: what day do you think 00:00am 2019-12-08 is?
My other concern is I don't know how fast the BBC will update their constituency sub-pages. And I won't know the format of the "live stream" of data from whatever main thread they put up until it starts.
"Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points."
"No one has done more to mainstream antisemitism into the political and social life of a democracy than the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party."
explicitly referred to the present day. My apologies for not seeing the non-historical context that you saw.
So awful. I am sure it is one reason I tend towards the conservative. To CONSERVE what is obviously better, even if it is older.
I haven't watched it all yet - but it's certainly engrossing
Their defensive line seems to be Bolsover in the north and Portsmouth South in the south.
They could be wrong, in 2017 they were appartenly very wrong in their own estimates.
I might be able to adjust scripts to scrape whatever is the most up to date stream out there in the first couple of hours, but will have to see.
I do have a bit of an antipathy to religion, and because it's the lical one, to the CofE in particular. So maybe that's why. Maybe it's easier to take a detached view of the beauty of someone else's church. But it's easy to marvel at these places without the religious context. Even from the outside. I'd urge everyone to take the chance to visit Lincoln cathedral, and Chester, and Liverpool, and York, and probably two dozen more.
That’s not spam, that’s just someone hitting refresh on his page.
I’ve a friend who’s a developer, who I know lurks here occasionally, who I’m probably going to be with on the night. Let me chat to him in the next couple of days and maybe I’ll PM you.
People generally ignore the wonders in their own backyard not due to a lack of interest but rather a lack of pressure. People get carried away with their day to day lives and visiting somewhere like Lincoln is something easily done so can always be done in the future. Whereas holidays are rare and special so people make the most of it.
When I grew up in Victoria, Australia my parents made sure we saw everything Victoria had to offer (and much in other States too) because we had the opportunity and would make the most of it. Some of the stuff we saw I couldn't recommend highly enough if you get down there like Phillip Island's Penguin Parade - one of the most majestic and incredible sights I've ever seen. But when I returned to school almost nobody else in the class had ever seen it.
Not long down the road is something worth seeing from travelling half the world away but when its in your own backyard you take it for granted. That's not a modern or a British phenomenon its just life.
Good night.
The picture could look even worse for Labour or alternatively a bit better .
Seriously, these so called profound sounding comments about London and Londoners are mostly pretty stupid. There are dozens of small towns with interesting things to see dotted around Britain. Who has visited more than a few of them? Whether they live in London or anywhere else? This doesn't tell us anything profound, it just means that busy working people don't tend to use up precious holidays visiting small towns in the East Midlands to see a Cathedral. Can you imagine what my kids would say if I dragged them to look at it? "But it used to be the tallest building in the world"! Cue much eye rolling. Does this mean my kids are metropolitan elitists?
Unless Survation's Monday morning poll shows something radically different, that would be my final forecast.
Lanark & Hamilton East: SNP maj 1,680
Don Valley: Con maj 3,245
Wrexham: Con maj 1,679
Vale of Clwyd: Con maj 310
Workington: Lab maj 883
Hartlepool: Lab maj 5,046
Putney: Con maj 1,479
Winchester: LD maj 344
East Dunbartonshire: LD maj 2,211
Esher & Walton: Con maj 3,429
Chingford & Woodford Green: Con maj 730
Beaconsfield: Con maj 8,618
https://www.dataprax.is/tory-landslide-or-hung-parliament
4 seats changing hands: Don Valley, Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Winchester.
Mid 20s would probably see them right, though it would possibly get a bit tight in the final year or so.
If Sunderland doesn't declare early due to a recount we'll know its a massive night, but even if the Tories fall well short there could be a lot of info about the swing.
Sunderland + Andy's spreadsheet was an early indication that we were Leaving afterall.
For example the rivarly between the LD and the SDP after the merger in 1988, and the situation between the LD and Change UK is also in the same category.
(Offer open to all PBers).
A Hung Parliament is still possible, but if Labour do surprise significantly on the upside it'll be down to a major polling failure (most likely caused by the Labour Leavers scuttling home on polling day,) a freakishly inefficient Tory vote distribution, or some combination of the two.
Assuming that the MRP revision on Tuesday throws up no surprises, I reckon the Tories probably have this one in the bag.
My Wales and Scotland predictions are the averages of a number of sources including Baxter and Flavible.
Has anyone asked who did you vote for last time and why?
Edit: just seen it below after refreshing the page.
I have been to some amazing places outside of the UK, I love travelling and exploring other countries and cultures. I don't think that's something to feel bad about.
People outside of London tend to forget too how big London is. How many non Londoners have visited my London borough of Lewisham? Probably not many. But we have a population of almost 300,000 - bigger than Newcastle. Why don't all the metropolitan elitists of Stoke come to Lewisham instead of going to Spain on holiday?
He looks as if he’s just been let out of class detention.
You can debate whether it is a skilled job or not. But it is a minimum wage/close to minimum wage job
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
The Alliance for Green Socialism sounds like a hoot, and apparently the Young People's Party UK follows the ideology of Henry George, whoever that is. They stood in London and Westminster in 2017.
Women's Equality Party don't seem to be getting the kind of attention they used to, with the leader pictured with others on the front page of the Indy once.
Aontu according to wiku is a conservative, republican, eurosceptic all-ireland party.
And interestingly the Alliance are the only NI party to stand in all their constituencies.
Or 1987 when an 11.4% lead for Thatcher delivered an enormous majority of 102.
Or 1992 when a 7.4% lead led to a small majority of 22
Or 2015 when a 6.5% lead led to a small majority of 12
There's no precedence I can see for a double-digit lead not leading to a majority.