politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Nei
Comments
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We discussed Twitter at length earlier today.kle4 said:
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic? It's just a snap poll for christ's sake, why react so personally?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/DilksChris/status/1203065710542540800
tl;dr version - Twittter is digital poison.1 -
52 48 to Borisnico67 said:A poor start from Corbyn . One can see how he would much rather have fought an election after Brexit.
Got better towards the end . I thought his answers on security in light of the terrorist attack were quite good and measured.
I thought overall Johnson did a bit better than I expected. Apparently YouGov are doing a snap debate poll. I expect Johnson to win that but am interested in seeing what the undecideds thought .0 -
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.0 -
That’s what I assumed too.Brom said:
But is that a pro Boris lol or a pro Corbyn lol. Either way a shame Britain Elects is becoming more like Election Maps.kle4 said:
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic? It's just a snap poll for christ's sake, why react so personally?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/DilksChris/status/1203065710542540800
Oh sorry slow me, it’s a referendum lol!0 -
The annoying thing is that I'm selling the other one at the moment but the cash won't come through for a couple of months.ydoethur said:
Since you have a spare, that’s not such a risk for you as it would be for the rest of us.Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
Too late.0 -
Yeah, all he has to do now is see off Andrew Neil and he's home and hosed.funkhauser said:
Probably a score draw, but most importantly the two banana skins of the Trump visit & the final leaders debate have now happened without incident.paulyork64 said:i'll go 53-47 to boris in the yougov snap poll.
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The chances of getting Blair back to win like they did in 2005 are minuscule.....ydoethur said:
Since they would have formed a government perfectly comfortably without Scotland in 2005 (which was after all the last election they won) I am not sure that that is true.MikeSmithson said:Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
I agree that it makes their task considerably harder, but that’s not the same thing.0 -
Game, set and match Borisdr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1203065126007558144
Poll conducted by Peter Ian Staker.0 -
Do you think he ever got his swan back?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1203065126007558144
Poll conducted by Peter Ian Staker.0 -
Let us hope soHYUFD said:
Game, set and match Borisdr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1203065126007558144
Poll conducted by Peter Ian Staker.0 -
For fun in pure UNS 52/48 is a Conservative majority of 48.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:0 -
The "vote Labour or you want the homeless to die" line isn't going down well on my facebook feed, and the more obviously political people on there are all Labour.0
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Gordon Brown had a pretty good go.nichomar said:when you have been in government 9 years there are not many things you can blame others for.
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Nope home and hosed without Neil.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, all he has to do now is see off Andrew Neil and he's home and hosed.funkhauser said:
Probably a score draw, but most importantly the two banana skins of the Trump visit & the final leaders debate have now happened without incident.paulyork64 said:i'll go 53-47 to boris in the yougov snap poll.
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Hmm. Are viewers representative though?Big_G_NorthWales said:On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.0 -
52/48 in favour of Boris is terrible news for Labour. Corbyn needed to knock Boris out of the park for an hour solid to have had any effect. He needed all the media and all the newspapers to say it too. But it didn't happen.
Here's why. He's Jeremy Corbyn, not Barack Obama. And Boris is a lot better than people give him credit for.
But still. I can see the headlines tomorrow about the tax on people earning over £20k. That for me was a critical error by Corbyn.0 -
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.-2 -
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?0
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Betfair definitely missed a trick by having their Election Day markets settle on the day, rather than on the dissolution of Parliament.Casino_Royale said:
The annoying thing is that I'm selling the other one at the moment but the cash won't come through for a couple of months.ydoethur said:
Since you have a spare, that’s not such a risk for you as it would be for the rest of us.Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
Too late.
Would have freed up a load of capital, most of which would probably have come back to them almost immediately!0 -
I agree. I am sure Boris will improved his ratings after thatCasino_Royale said:
Hmm. Are viewers representative though?Big_G_NorthWales said:On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
And only 5 more days0 -
You can blame Labour for electing a loser like Corbyn.nichomar said:when you have been in government 9 years there are not many things you can blame others for.
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Omg that’s so funny . Typical YouGov are having a laugh !Big_G_NorthWales said:
52 48 to Borisnico67 said:A poor start from Corbyn . One can see how he would much rather have fought an election after Brexit.
Got better towards the end . I thought his answers on security in light of the terrorist attack were quite good and measured.
I thought overall Johnson did a bit better than I expected. Apparently YouGov are doing a snap debate poll. I expect Johnson to win that but am interested in seeing what the undecideds thought .0 -
No, it all depends on relative risk.viewcode said:
It's usually thought to be a bad idea to bet with borrowed money...Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
If I can borrow at 0% for a guaranteed return of 2.5% in under a week it makes sense.
If I credit carded it I'd pay 2.5-3% just to get the money out so would actually make a small loss.0 -
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. Are viewers representative though?Big_G_NorthWales said:On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.0 -
Much though I despise Corbyn, that is a pretty unpleasant comment.ReggieCide said:
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.3 -
One of the most sensible things David Cameron said was on that very subject. I doubt there is anyone even on this forum who would disagree.GideonWise said:
We discussed Twitter at length earlier today.kle4 said:
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic? It's just a snap poll for christ's sake, why react so personally?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/DilksChris/status/1203065710542540800
tl;dr version - Twittter is digital poison.4 -
She'd have to come out of hiding first.kle4 said:
Diane Abbott?speedy2 said:
This is the list of MP's who would probably win the leadership election, delete the centrists from it first:MikeSmithson said:A week tonight we are likely to be talking about a LAB leadership contest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Labour_Party_Members_of_Parliament_in_London
Basically someone like George Galloway, but still in Labour.0 -
Shami Chakrabarti losing it on Sky0
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There is no path to a Labour majority.MikeSmithson said:Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
None.
Sir John Curtice memorably said: so close to zero as effectively zero.
That of course is different to Labour being able to form a Government and supply the next PM, and I wonder if some may be getting confused.0 -
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.0
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Hislop: “is he going to do Sooty?”0
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Why don't people hold real-life social gatherings where all contributions must contain less than 12 words with or without a picture, and to which any idiot is welcome to turn up? Then imagine millions getting accustomed to attending such gatherings. That would be a recipe for the mass delusion that shit is sugar.kle4 said:
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic?Black_Rook said:
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Baroness Chakrabarti. We should all remember how she got the first part.Big_G_NorthWales said:Shami Chakrabarti losing it on Sky
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Good. I prefer betting on Sunday nights as the shop is nice and quiet and you can have a bit of a gab with the counter guy. Saturday afternoons it's all crowded. Hopefully the odds will remain stable until then. Then a nice quiet ride thru to Thursday night, Doritos and dip, and pick up my winnings the next day or worry about an incoming Corbyn government. If it wasn't for Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I'd feel quite relaxed.Black_Rook said:
If the debate all ends in another score draw then that's the last potential banana skin dodged by Johnson before polling day. Although with the benefit of hindsight (i.e. seeing how the polls have behaved since Dissolution) it's possible that none of these set pieces has, or would've, made much difference in any event.Fysics_Teacher said:Reading the comments, it seems there is something for everyone.
Unless there's a black swan then, for us anoraks, the one big event remaining is presumably the revision of the MRP on Tuesday night?
I appreciate the various political members and functionaries may have a more fraught view of things...
Incidentally, at what time is Aaron Bell, the honourable member for PB, expected to become a MP?0 -
Two of the most sensible things. The other being “Twitter is not Britain”.Fysics_Teacher said:
One of the most sensible things David Cameron said was on that very subject. I doubt there is anyone even on this forum who would disagree.GideonWise said:
We discussed Twitter at length earlier today.kle4 said:
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic? It's just a snap poll for christ's sake, why react so personally?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/DilksChris/status/1203065710542540800
tl;dr version - Twittter is digital poison.0 -
It’s all a bit much, Friday night Christmas in sight and we have politicians shouting at each other turning people off from politics same old liers taking on the same old liers, nobody gives ground or sees a different point of view. Really I’m surprised anybody is going to vote for either of them or their party they don’t have a vision for the future it really is all about self interest and the ability to convince the more easily led that they will benefit. It really is a sad state of affairs, I don’t really want to hear another one of them with their pre prepared lies and slurs. It really is a disgrace.0
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No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)0 -
YesBluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
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Deleated original comment. Didn’t read this carefully enough.ReggieCide said:
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.0 -
Thanks! Are Labour actually doing that or is that just our best guess at the Hail Mary pass?SunnyJim said:
A draw imo but if the news focus on the closing statements it will appear Boris won.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
Just Labour's graduate tax announcement to come now.0 -
Probably. But I think Labour majority is actually basically impossible.viewcode said:
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.0 -
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?GideonWise said:Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
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Tort maj. starting to creep in on betfair. Makes sense, the price of the last few days includes a flight risk which has just gone down significantly.0
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I agree - just wrongydoethur said:
Much though I despise Corbyn, that is a pretty unpleasant comment.ReggieCide said:
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.0 -
Neil ain't gonna happensquareroot2 said:
Nope home and hosed without Neil.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, all he has to do now is see off Andrew Neil and he's home and hosed.funkhauser said:
Probably a score draw, but most importantly the two banana skins of the Trump visit & the final leaders debate have now happened without incident.paulyork64 said:i'll go 53-47 to boris in the yougov snap poll.
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You'd expect the weighted two party forced choice.maaarsh said:
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. Are viewers representative though?Big_G_NorthWales said:On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
I think that was 56-44 to Boris or similar last time I checked, so I could be on the high side.0 -
So, when can we expect more polls?
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Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)0 -
I make this analogy right except he's 1-0 up, not, 2-0. If the ball goes loose, and the defence gets caught out... it's 1-1 and a hung parliament.welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)0 -
The studio audience applauded Corbyn, hardly any applause for Johnson at all.0
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Cponnecting the battery?humbugger said:
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?GideonWise said:Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
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She’s about the only known unknown left.IanB2 said:
Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Has one of the Sundays got her splashed all over the front page?0 -
I don’t get how you come to that conclusion . Corbyn has outperformed his favourability scores by a big margin , Johnson less so.maaarsh said:
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. Are viewers representative though?Big_G_NorthWales said:On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
Anyway of more interest is what the undecideds think .0 -
Why would it? Labour folk have just had Corbyn holding Boris to account. Why would they think a Tory journo would do a better job than Corbyn?ReggieCide said:
Neil ain't gonna happensquareroot2 said:
Nope home and hosed without Neil.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, all he has to do now is see off Andrew Neil and he's home and hosed.funkhauser said:
Probably a score draw, but most importantly the two banana skins of the Trump visit & the final leaders debate have now happened without incident.paulyork64 said:i'll go 53-47 to boris in the yougov snap poll.
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If I were Boris I'd do a shock Neil tomorrow on Saturday.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, all he has to do now is see off Andrew Neil and he's home and hosed.funkhauser said:
Probably a score draw, but most importantly the two banana skins of the Trump visit & the final leaders debate have now happened without incident.paulyork64 said:i'll go 53-47 to boris in the yougov snap poll.
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.0 -
It was a joke. You're very thin skinnedydoethur said:
Much though I despise Corbyn, that is a pretty unpleasant comment.ReggieCide said:
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.0 -
Going through the desert with a horse with no namehumbugger said:
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?GideonWise said:Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
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Nearly an away win for red over blue
Late equaliser from Millwall0 -
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.IanB2 said:
Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.0 -
Labour majority incoming then.roserees64 said:The studio audience applauded Corbyn, hardly any applause for Johnson at all.
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Mirror Front page Corbyn Free Zone.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203069483755151360/photo/10 -
Yes. Laying lab majority they need to get 326 for you to lose. But maybe only to 300 for Cons most seats to lose. Both highly unlikely but former has higher margin of safety.Casino_Royale said:
Probably. But I think Labour majority is actually basically impossible.viewcode said:
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.0 -
Boris more likeable, Jezza more in touch, Boris more prime ministerial (54 to 30)
No shocks.0 -
Most Prime Ministerial
54 % Boris
30% Corbyn
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You must be as old as me. Lol.nichomar said:
Going through the desert with a horse with no namehumbugger said:
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?GideonWise said:Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
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66humbugger said:
You must be as old as me. Lol.nichomar said:
Going through the desert with a horse with no namehumbugger said:
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?GideonWise said:Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
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Strong headline from the DT
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/12030686688061562880 -
He's paid the price already no point paying twice.Casino_Royale said:
If I were Boris I'd do a shock Neil tomorrow on Saturday.
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.
I believe he made a mistake not going on but doing it now would be a bigger one.0 -
Has a tactic like that ever worked when the polls were not already moving?welshowl said:
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.IanB2 said:
Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.0 -
Jester swallowed a random lie generator
I didnt know about the diplomat
He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit
Abolish MI5
Highest Corporate taxes in Europe
Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat0 -
No point now, things have moved on quickly and there’s only ever downsides to spending an hour with a well-researched Andrew Neil.SunnyJim said:
He's paid the price already no point paying twice.Casino_Royale said:
If I were Boris I'd do a shock Neil tomorrow on Saturday.
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.
I believe he made a mistake not going on but doing it now would be a bigger one.0 -
Probably not. I’m just thinking what Labour might have to do.Fysics_Teacher said:
Has a tactic like that ever worked when the polls were not already moving?welshowl said:
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.IanB2 said:
Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.
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Did anyone on here change their mind as a result of the debate? I suspect that the “who won” poll would have produced very similar numbers if run as a “who do you expect to win?” poll before the debate.0
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Yes he is but labour chose corbyn so unfortunately the tories win.bigjohnowls said:Jester swallowed a random lie generator
I didnt know about the diplomat
He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit
Abolish MI5
Highest Corporate taxes in Europe
Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat0 -
Already been and gone, and a long range intervention from Trump also seems highly unlikely at this juncture. We've already had a major security incident, and there's not enough time left for reports of any possible NHS Winter crisis to start to work up steam.IanB2 said:
Arcuri?welshowl said:
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.BluerBlue said:Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
There's no indication that the Andrew Neil faux outrage episode has had any meaningful effect either. There are only five campaigning days left, and two of those are over the weekend when, even if the public is still interested in election news (as opposed to having already made their minds up and moved on,) attention to it will be reduced accordingly.
It is, of course, in the nature of black swan events that we can't necessarily see them coming, but I'm really struggling to think of anything that might happen to derail Boris Johnson at this stage. I don't know, some dreadfully incriminating hidden camera video of him peddling crack cocaine to nursery school children, or perhaps using a Rolls Royce to run over some puppies? That seems just about the only thing that would do it now.0 -
Labour could get most seats at about 285-290.paulyork64 said:
Yes. Laying lab majority they need to get 326 for you to lose. But maybe only to 300 for Cons most seats to lose. Both highly unlikely but former has higher margin of safety.Casino_Royale said:
Probably. But I think Labour majority is actually basically impossible.viewcode said:
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?Casino_Royale said:
Fucking lol.Sandpit said:Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.0 -
I'm reassuredBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree - just wrongydoethur said:
Much though I despise Corbyn, that is a pretty unpleasant comment.ReggieCide said:
C'mon - you wouldn't really ask Corbyn round for tea unless you were going to poison him, would you?KentRising said:Corbyn the nice doddery old reverend you might ask round for tea (just stay off the subject of the Jews...), heart's in the right place. Maybe.
Not a leader.0 -
Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?0 -
I don't think so.SunnyJim said:
He's paid the price already no point paying twice.Casino_Royale said:
If I were Boris I'd do a shock Neil tomorrow on Saturday.
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.
I believe he made a mistake not going on but doing it now would be a bigger one.
He can just say he was always planning to do it but his diary was very busy.
Of course it's bullshit but it'd probably work and would kill a frit story in the closing days of the campaign.0 -
Not if they'd be crap.bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
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Sounds like a Boris win then. As the Mirror front page has avoided the debate I assume they think likewise.bigjohnowls said:Jester swallowed a random lie generator
I didnt know about the diplomat
He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit
Abolish MI5
Highest Corporate taxes in Europe
Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat
Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO with your future health.0 -
Most viewers think both leaders performed well, with 69% saying so of Corbyn and 62% saying likewise of Johnson.0
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It's a nice idea. However, Corbyn and his marxist unpatriotic North London metro liberal elite have nothing in common with ordinary people, especially in the north and midlands. If they had, the Red Wall would not be on the verge of collapse would it?bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?0 -
But Johnson will also be crap so that’s not a good argumentRobD said:
Not if they'd be crap.bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?0 -
Correct.Casino_Royale said:
There is no path to a Labour majority.MikeSmithson said:Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
None.
Sir John Curtice memorably said: so close to zero as effectively zero.
That of course is different to Labour being able to form a Government and supply the next PM, and I wonder if some may be getting confused.
A swing of 5% to Labour would result in a Labour majority, but a swing of 1% for a Labour minority government.
In theory the 2017 election results was close to the middle, Conservatives needing a lead of 6% for a majority and Labour a lead of 7% to get a majority.0 -
No, I'd rather someone who isn't a Marxist.bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?0 -
Very surprised to see the results on government spending .
Johnson 48
Corbyn 43
I thought that would be a big win for Johnson .0 -
In defence of Twitter, this made me laugh
https://twitter.com/stu_bot3000/status/1202176609253498880/photo/12 -
Could replace it with a worse story.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so.SunnyJim said:
He's paid the price already no point paying twice.Casino_Royale said:
If I were Boris I'd do a shock Neil tomorrow on Saturday.
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.
I believe he made a mistake not going on but doing it now would be a bigger one.
He can just say he was always planning to do it but his diary was very busy.
Of course it's bullshit but it'd probably work and would kill a frit story in the closing days of the campaign.0 -
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Omg, Russian interference in a UK election. Outrageous, no?CarlottaVance said:0 -
That's just a natural consequence of viewers' knowledge of the candidates. Boris Johnson went to Eton, therefore Jeremy Corbyn must be more in touch with ordinary people. The fact that Corbyn's own background isn't exactly underprivileged is not so widely appreciated.bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
Of course, going beyond snap verdicts on TV debates, a big part of Corbyn's problem is that he is not in touch with ordinary people - at least not ordinary people beyond the M25. Those disgruntled Northern and Midlands Labour voters around whom this election seems likely to turn are ordinary people. A great many of them don't appear to view Corbyn as being especially in touch with their views and needs.0 -
Corbyn is as much a Marxist as is Johnson a fascist both descriptions are wrong corbyn is very left wing Johnson is well to the right but that perception starts from where you think you are. Most people think the occupy the center ground and can’t understan why others see them as on the extremes. The best example is the people who claim Johnson is a one nation Tory because he aligns with their view but see major as left wing. I see major as the one nation Tory so it really is about where your reference point is.MaxPB said:
No, I'd rather someone who isn't a Marxist.bigjohnowls said:Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?0 -
I think they did poll beforehand asking who they thought would win.Fysics_Teacher said:Did anyone on here change their mind as a result of the debate? I suspect that the “who won” poll would have produced very similar numbers if run as a “who do you expect to win?” poll before the debate.
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