A poor start from Corbyn . One can see how he would much rather have fought an election after Brexit.
Got better towards the end . I thought his answers on security in light of the terrorist attack were quite good and measured.
I thought overall Johnson did a bit better than I expected. Apparently YouGov are doing a snap debate poll. I expect Johnson to win that but am interested in seeing what the undecideds thought .
Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
Since they would have formed a government perfectly comfortably without Scotland in 2005 (which was after all the last election they won) I am not sure that that is true.
I agree that it makes their task considerably harder, but that’s not the same thing.
The chances of getting Blair back to win like they did in 2005 are minuscule.....
The "vote Labour or you want the homeless to die" line isn't going down well on my facebook feed, and the more obviously political people on there are all Labour.
52/48 in favour of Boris is terrible news for Labour. Corbyn needed to knock Boris out of the park for an hour solid to have had any effect. He needed all the media and all the newspapers to say it too. But it didn't happen.
Here's why. He's Jeremy Corbyn, not Barack Obama. And Boris is a lot better than people give him credit for.
But still. I can see the headlines tomorrow about the tax on people earning over £20k. That for me was a critical error by Corbyn.
A poor start from Corbyn . One can see how he would much rather have fought an election after Brexit.
Got better towards the end . I thought his answers on security in light of the terrorist attack were quite good and measured.
I thought overall Johnson did a bit better than I expected. Apparently YouGov are doing a snap debate poll. I expect Johnson to win that but am interested in seeing what the undecideds thought .
52 48 to Boris
Omg that’s so funny . Typical YouGov are having a laugh !
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.
Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
There is no path to a Labour majority.
None.
Sir John Curtice memorably said: so close to zero as effectively zero.
That of course is different to Labour being able to form a Government and supply the next PM, and I wonder if some may be getting confused.
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Serious question, why are people on twitter so pathetic?
Why don't people hold real-life social gatherings where all contributions must contain less than 12 words with or without a picture, and to which any idiot is welcome to turn up? Then imagine millions getting accustomed to attending such gatherings. That would be a recipe for the mass delusion that shit is sugar.
Reading the comments, it seems there is something for everyone.
If the debate all ends in another score draw then that's the last potential banana skin dodged by Johnson before polling day. Although with the benefit of hindsight (i.e. seeing how the polls have behaved since Dissolution) it's possible that none of these set pieces has, or would've, made much difference in any event.
Unless there's a black swan then, for us anoraks, the one big event remaining is presumably the revision of the MRP on Tuesday night?
Good. I prefer betting on Sunday nights as the shop is nice and quiet and you can have a bit of a gab with the counter guy. Saturday afternoons it's all crowded. Hopefully the odds will remain stable until then. Then a nice quiet ride thru to Thursday night, Doritos and dip, and pick up my winnings the next day or worry about an incoming Corbyn government. If it wasn't for Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I'd feel quite relaxed.
I appreciate the various political members and functionaries may have a more fraught view of things...
Incidentally, at what time is Aaron Bell, the honourable member for PB, expected to become a MP?
It’s all a bit much, Friday night Christmas in sight and we have politicians shouting at each other turning people off from politics same old liers taking on the same old liers, nobody gives ground or sees a different point of view. Really I’m surprised anybody is going to vote for either of them or their party they don’t have a vision for the future it really is all about self interest and the ability to convince the more easily led that they will benefit. It really is a sad state of affairs, I don’t really want to hear another one of them with their pre prepared lies and slurs. It really is a disgrace.
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.
You'd expect the weighted two party forced choice.
I think that was 56-44 to Boris or similar last time I checked, so I could be on the high side.
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
I make this analogy right except he's 1-0 up, not, 2-0. If the ball goes loose, and the defence gets caught out... it's 1-1 and a hung parliament.
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Arcuri?
She’s about the only known unknown left.
Has one of the Sundays got her splashed all over the front page?
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
Not sure that's true - Corbyn would be expected to pick up more from all the others apart from brexit party. Boris scoring above combined tory and BP vote is a solid score.
I don’t get how you come to that conclusion . Corbyn has outperformed his favourability scores by a big margin , Johnson less so.
Anyway of more interest is what the undecideds think .
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?
Going through the desert with a horse with no name
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Arcuri?
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.
Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Fucking lol.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?
Probably. But I think Labour majority is actually basically impossible.
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.
Yes. Laying lab majority they need to get 326 for you to lose. But maybe only to 300 for Cons most seats to lose. Both highly unlikely but former has higher margin of safety.
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?
Going through the desert with a horse with no name
Disappointed there's been no spinning from MysticRose tonight. Presumably Corbyn was the real winner because everyone normal thinks he's rubbish or something.
Good point, and where is a man called Horse tonight?
Going through the desert with a horse with no name
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Arcuri?
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.
Has a tactic like that ever worked when the polls were not already moving?
I didnt know about the diplomat He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit Abolish MI5 Highest Corporate taxes in Europe Get BREXIT done oven ready
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Arcuri?
She’s been around in the news for a while. Not impossible but unlikely.
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.
Has a tactic like that ever worked when the polls were not already moving?
Probably not. I’m just thinking what Labour might have to do.
Did anyone on here change their mind as a result of the debate? I suspect that the “who won” poll would have produced very similar numbers if run as a “who do you expect to win?” poll before the debate.
I didnt know about the diplomat He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit Abolish MI5 Highest Corporate taxes in Europe Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat
Yes he is but labour chose corbyn so unfortunately the tories win.
Ok, naturally I didn't watch because I don't want to spend Christmas in a sanatorium curing my nerves. Did we survive?
No cock ups from either really. Uneventful.
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
Arcuri?
Already been and gone, and a long range intervention from Trump also seems highly unlikely at this juncture. We've already had a major security incident, and there's not enough time left for reports of any possible NHS Winter crisis to start to work up steam.
There's no indication that the Andrew Neil faux outrage episode has had any meaningful effect either. There are only five campaigning days left, and two of those are over the weekend when, even if the public is still interested in election news (as opposed to having already made their minds up and moved on,) attention to it will be reduced accordingly.
It is, of course, in the nature of black swan events that we can't necessarily see them coming, but I'm really struggling to think of anything that might happen to derail Boris Johnson at this stage. I don't know, some dreadfully incriminating hidden camera video of him peddling crack cocaine to nursery school children, or perhaps using a Rolls Royce to run over some puppies? That seems just about the only thing that would do it now.
Betfair’s Con Maj price still firmly stuck at 1.4, but Lab Maj into 40 (from 46). NOM 3.8.
Fucking lol.
Who is backing Labour majority at 40 now?!
I'd remortgage my house to lay it if I could in time.
Speaking seriously, wouldn't it be easier to back Con most seats? Is it more cost effective to bet against A or bet on not-A?
Probably. But I think Labour majority is actually basically impossible.
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.
Yes. Laying lab majority they need to get 326 for you to lose. But maybe only to 300 for Cons most seats to lose. Both highly unlikely but former has higher margin of safety.
I didnt know about the diplomat He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit Abolish MI5 Highest Corporate taxes in Europe Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat
Sounds like a Boris win then. As the Mirror front page has avoided the debate I assume they think likewise.
Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO with your future health.
Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57% Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
It's a nice idea. However, Corbyn and his marxist unpatriotic North London metro liberal elite have nothing in common with ordinary people, especially in the north and midlands. If they had, the Red Wall would not be on the verge of collapse would it?
Anybody betting on a LAB majority is barmy. Since losing Scotland at GE2015 the chances, even with a bright voter-friendly new leader, of LAB forming a majority government are miniscule.
There is no path to a Labour majority.
None.
Sir John Curtice memorably said: so close to zero as effectively zero.
That of course is different to Labour being able to form a Government and supply the next PM, and I wonder if some may be getting confused.
Correct. A swing of 5% to Labour would result in a Labour majority, but a swing of 1% for a Labour minority government.
In theory the 2017 election results was close to the middle, Conservatives needing a lead of 6% for a majority and Labour a lead of 7% to get a majority.
Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57% Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
That's just a natural consequence of viewers' knowledge of the candidates. Boris Johnson went to Eton, therefore Jeremy Corbyn must be more in touch with ordinary people. The fact that Corbyn's own background isn't exactly underprivileged is not so widely appreciated.
Of course, going beyond snap verdicts on TV debates, a big part of Corbyn's problem is that he is not in touch with ordinary people - at least not ordinary people beyond the M25. Those disgruntled Northern and Midlands Labour voters around whom this election seems likely to turn are ordinary people. A great many of them don't appear to view Corbyn as being especially in touch with their views and needs.
Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people? (YouGov)
Jeremy Corbyn 57% Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
No, I'd rather someone who isn't a Marxist.
Corbyn is as much a Marxist as is Johnson a fascist both descriptions are wrong corbyn is very left wing Johnson is well to the right but that perception starts from where you think you are. Most people think the occupy the center ground and can’t understan why others see them as on the extremes. The best example is the people who claim Johnson is a one nation Tory because he aligns with their view but see major as left wing. I see major as the one nation Tory so it really is about where your reference point is.
Did anyone on here change their mind as a result of the debate? I suspect that the “who won” poll would have produced very similar numbers if run as a “who do you expect to win?” poll before the debate.
I think they did poll beforehand asking who they thought would win.
Comments
tl;dr version - Twittter is digital poison.
Too late.
I'd have thought it'd be something like 60/40 to Boris if it were weighted to the electorate.
Here's why. He's Jeremy Corbyn, not Barack Obama. And Boris is a lot better than people give him credit for.
But still. I can see the headlines tomorrow about the tax on people earning over £20k. That for me was a critical error by Corbyn.
Would have freed up a load of capital, most of which would probably have come back to them almost immediately!
And only 5 more days
If I can borrow at 0% for a guaranteed return of 2.5% in under a week it makes sense.
If I credit carded it I'd pay 2.5-3% just to get the money out so would actually make a small loss.
Just Labour's graduate tax announcement to come now.
None.
Sir John Curtice memorably said: so close to zero as effectively zero.
That of course is different to Labour being able to form a Government and supply the next PM, and I wonder if some may be getting confused.
I appreciate the various political members and functionaries may have a more fraught view of things...
Incidentally, at what time is Aaron Bell, the honourable member for PB, expected to become a MP?
If the polls are right (if!), Boris has brought on an extra defender, and has the ball by the opposition corner flag, while being two nil up with two minutes to go.
(Is this where the black swan appears?)
It's not actually impossible (just extremely extremely unlikely) for Labour to get most seats.
Just.
I think that was 56-44 to Boris or similar last time I checked, so I could be on the high side.
Has one of the Sundays got her splashed all over the front page?
Anyway of more interest is what the undecideds think .
No-one cares on Saturday and it'd quickly get overtaken by the Sundays and then the final three days.
He'll have got past every hurdle and can then just focus on rallies and turnout.
Late equaliser from Millwall
More likely a Hail Mary policy from Corbyn. Free unicorns with every owl to enjoy with your retirement at 29 sort of thing.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203069483755151360/photo/1
No shocks.
It is the one thing Labour could announce that might be enough to swing the election in to hung parliament territory.
54 % Boris
30% Corbyn
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203068668806156288
I believe he made a mistake not going on but doing it now would be a bigger one.
I didnt know about the diplomat
He hasnt explained what he is going to do about Brexit
Abolish MI5
Highest Corporate taxes in Europe
Get BREXIT done oven ready
What a complete twat
There's no indication that the Andrew Neil faux outrage episode has had any meaningful effect either. There are only five campaigning days left, and two of those are over the weekend when, even if the public is still interested in election news (as opposed to having already made their minds up and moved on,) attention to it will be reduced accordingly.
It is, of course, in the nature of black swan events that we can't necessarily see them coming, but I'm really struggling to think of anything that might happen to derail Boris Johnson at this stage. I don't know, some dreadfully incriminating hidden camera video of him peddling crack cocaine to nursery school children, or perhaps using a Rolls Royce to run over some puppies? That seems just about the only thing that would do it now.
Jeremy Corbyn 57%
Boris Johnson 29%
Isn’t it time we had someone in touch with ordinary people as our Prime Minister?
He can just say he was always planning to do it but his diary was very busy.
Of course it's bullshit but it'd probably work and would kill a frit story in the closing days of the campaign.
Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO with your future health.
A swing of 5% to Labour would result in a Labour majority, but a swing of 1% for a Labour minority government.
In theory the 2017 election results was close to the middle, Conservatives needing a lead of 6% for a majority and Labour a lead of 7% to get a majority.
Johnson 48
Corbyn 43
I thought that would be a big win for Johnson .
https://twitter.com/stu_bot3000/status/1202176609253498880/photo/1
Of course, going beyond snap verdicts on TV debates, a big part of Corbyn's problem is that he is not in touch with ordinary people - at least not ordinary people beyond the M25. Those disgruntled Northern and Midlands Labour voters around whom this election seems likely to turn are ordinary people. A great many of them don't appear to view Corbyn as being especially in touch with their views and needs.