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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Neil interview rumpus
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I guess we'll find out.
As we saw with the Neil video and the C4 fake news, social media leaps all over something to beat the buffoon up with - we've had a couple of threads on it now too - but in the real world I don't think most people give a monkeys.
Heydon Prowse, best known for his part in the BBC TV series ‘The Revolution Will Be Televised’ is advertising on Facebook to create a fake Conservative campaign in Uxbridge, which will tell voters they want to “sell off” the NHS.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/06/former-bbc-tv-comic-planning-smear-tories-fake-canvassing-stunt/
"General election 2019: Tory candidate in disability pay row"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50684582
I’m not sure the electorate will react at the rate it needs to him to match her but I still expect it to have some effect.
The myth of the 2017 'youthquake' election
A surge in youth turnout has often been cited as the reason for Labour's unexpectedly strong performance in the 2017 election. The trouble is, it seems there was no such "youthquake", write members of the British Election Study team.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342
As I pointed out in the couple of weeks before, Maybot had lost her massive lead among the middle aged / middle class.
Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.
It’s not quite the same magnitude as there only being one debate in the campaign and all the other leaders turning up but you send Amber Rudd. That really did undermine May’s “strong” message.
He should have done it and the Brillo thing will get some clicks and some traction but very few people (if any) will change their vote because Boris didn’t do one interview.
I fully expect the BBC to give him a really rough ride tonight though for what they will see as taking the piss and not respecting their position as the national broadcaster.
Likewise, in the South, how many Remainer Tories are going to say "oh well, that enormous success John Major wants me to vote LibDem... I guess I will then..."? I'm going to go for an almost equally imperceptible number.
UK Election: Conservatives 43% (Up 1 Point), Labour 34% (Unchanged) - Panelbase Poll
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1203003998787256323
I just cannot see labour closing the gap
Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
Let me think
- Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
- Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
- cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
- Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
- Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
- lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
--- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
Given that they're apparently working with data gathered up to and including today, that's another encouraging one for the Tories. Five days remaining and still no sign of the big three gaining or losing large numbers of voters over the last 10-12 days.
Again, it looks like the voters have made their minds up and the campaign may effectively have ended. Now it's probably just a matter of how far this election departs from UNS, and whether or not the pollsters are underestimating/overestimating one side or the other.
They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/brawling-spewing-snogging-boozy-brits-21034936
"Brawling, spewing and snogging: Boozy Brits braced for Mad Friday carnage
The Christmas season is upon us and for millions of Brits who have spent a year hard at work, that means getting well and truly hammered
The night (also known as Black Eye Friday) is notorious for fights, vomiting, public nudity and arrests as people take advantage of free company booze and festive good cheer."
I think we should have elections in December every time!
5 campaigning days left...
Hence Brexit
Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
Why DID Jeremy Corbyn share offices with a convicted IRA bomb maker... who was embroiled in a £550k scandal?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7757293/Why-DID-Jeremy-Corbyn-share-offices-convicted-IRA-bomb-maker.html
Jeremy Corbyn, the bomb-maker's friend: IRA terrorist gloried in the Hyde Park bombing - yet after he left jail, admirer Corbyn helped create a council job for him and he jumped a 12,000-strong queue for genteel Islington council flat
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752923/Jeremy-Corbyn-bomb-makers-friend-IRA-terrorist-admirer-Corbyn.html
That is what happens when you invite the CEO and CFO.
I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.
Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.
It may also see only the politically engaged watching tonight while the rest go off to the pub
Can't claim I'm otherwise. If Labour had a decent leader I might be looking to vote that way (or Lib Dem) given the Conservative leader isn't exactly fantastic, but in a forced Johnson/Corbyn choice I'm not willing to risk the far left.
I wouldn’t expect a whacking majority on a 6 percent gap, but I could quite easily see one of say, 2-12.
The big factor in this GE, given how the Tories have set their campaign, is do they break the Red firewall in the Midlands and especially the North. If they don't, all those southern seats are going to make it very iffy for a majority, if they do, things could swing a lot more than UNS to the Tories.
I seem to remember they and you said he was a Czech spy
Yes everything is about turnout.
The polls might be wrong, of course (and I certainly don't discount the possibility of the Labour Leavers abandoning the Tories in the polling booth,) but all of this does rather smack of wishful thinking.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
Not saying we shouldn't pay attention to even small changes, but calling mice mountains is a bit inaccurate.
I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome
So far, all the trend lines for this campaign have shown such little change in the gap (when you consider the error bars) you have to zoom right in.