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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Neil interview rumpus

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  • First?
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Will have no impact at all, more down to the possibility of Lib Dems switching to Labour after their shambolic campaign.
  • What will move the voters more ... Boris missing an interview or Corbyn planning to rig the electoral system by enfranchising millions of non-citizens? The latter is guaranteed to get its first public airing tonight and be pushed hard on Leave voters in the final days.

    I guess we'll find out.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Its had an impact in that it has been a recurring theme in stories about BJ, whether it affects the campaign we will never fully know.
  • BluerBlue said:

    What will move the voters more ... Boris missing an interview or Corbyn planning to rig the electoral system by enfranchising millions of non-citizens? The latter is guaranteed to get its first public airing tonight and be pushed hard on Leave voters in the final days.

    I guess we'll find out.

    Boris is planning to enfranchise lots of long-term ex-pats, and not because CCHQ has identified them as Labour supporters. It is in the manifesto. You seem blind to the blue team rigging the system, as you put it.
  • Apols if someone else already posted earlierhttps://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202906042759286790
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited December 2019
    Buffoon runs a mile so fair enough to take a hit for doing so BUT I'd assume tonight's BBC debate will let him draw the sting as he can say here I am now vs Magic Grandpa.

    As we saw with the Neil video and the C4 fake news, social media leaps all over something to beat the buffoon up with - we've had a couple of threads on it now too - but in the real world I don't think most people give a monkeys.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    A 20% spread on LibDem seats. Bookies want their pound of flesh don`t they?
  • No movement on Betfair. 1.40 as it has been for a couple of days now.
  • Positive leader ratings only model (6.5% Tory lead) gives the Tories 322 seats in my model, or an effective majority of zero.
  • woody662 said:

    Will have no impact at all, more down to the possibility of Lib Dems switching to Labour after their shambolic campaign.

    Illustrated by those mis-directed letters they sent using OGH's well-meaning support...
  • Its all getting very dirty now...

    Heydon Prowse, best known for his part in the BBC TV series ‘The Revolution Will Be Televised’ is advertising on Facebook to create a fake Conservative campaign in Uxbridge, which will tell voters they want to “sell off” the NHS.

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/06/former-bbc-tv-comic-planning-smear-tories-fake-canvassing-stunt/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    Not sure if this has been given the airtime it deserves yet...

    "General election 2019: Tory candidate in disability pay row"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50684582
  • Positive leader ratings only model (6.5% Tory lead) gives the Tories 322 seats in my model, or an effective majority of zero.

    I much preferred the legendary Jack W Arse scores.
  • FWIW, Leamington & Warwick feels a lot, lot closer than I thought it would be. There is a lot of Labour support evident in the Leamington part of the constituency. The same levels as in 2017, I'd guess. However, a lot of students may be heading home for Christmas this weekend. That could decide it.
  • FWIW I think Boris is starting to fuck it up but he’s only doing so in the last six days, as opposed to May who did it over a full four weeks.

    I’m not sure the electorate will react at the rate it needs to him to match her but I still expect it to have some effect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Talking about mass sign-up of the yuff for this GE. Worth digging this out.

    The myth of the 2017 'youthquake' election

    A surge in youth turnout has often been cited as the reason for Labour's unexpectedly strong performance in the 2017 election. The trouble is, it seems there was no such "youthquake", write members of the British Election Study team.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

    As I pointed out in the couple of weeks before, Maybot had lost her massive lead among the middle aged / middle class.
  • Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
  • Its all getting very dirty now...

    Heydon Prowse, best known for his part in the BBC TV series ‘The Revolution Will Be Televised’ is advertising on Facebook to create a fake Conservative campaign in Uxbridge, which will tell voters they want to “sell off” the NHS.

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/06/former-bbc-tv-comic-planning-smear-tories-fake-canvassing-stunt/

    When Boris is swept back into Downing Street, there will be extensive praise for his social media team from down under. Or Labour, mutatis mutandis. The point is that untrammelled social media electioneering is used by both main parties and they are not going to ban it because one z-list celeb wants to relive his 15 minutes of fame.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.
  • andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    May all our terrible days be ones that no one notices!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.
  • Jason said:

    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

    He's running for Prime Minister - hadn't you heard? :expressionless:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited December 2019
    My view is the impact, if any, will be very limited. The man is going into a debate tonight.

    It’s not quite the same magnitude as there only being one debate in the campaign and all the other leaders turning up but you send Amber Rudd. That really did undermine May’s “strong” message.

    He should have done it and the Brillo thing will get some clicks and some traction but very few people (if any) will change their vote because Boris didn’t do one interview.
  • Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I think where it hurts is your Guildford's of this world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    My view is the impact, if any, will be very limited. The man is going into a debate tonight.

    It’s not quite the same magnitude as there only being one debate in the campaign and all the other leaders turning up but you send Amber Rudd. That really did undermine May’s “strong” message.

    He should have done it and the Brillo thing will get some clicks and some traction but very few people (if any) will change their vote because Boris didn’t do one interview.

    I think it would have been a lot worse if Neil had done the video at the start of the week, then there would have been 4 days of "Boris are you going to do it, Boris are you going to do it, why are you hiding Boris".

    I fully expect the BBC to give him a really rough ride tonight though for what they will see as taking the piss and not respecting their position as the national broadcaster.
  • andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    FPT: Any sign of a surveymonkey poll this time? They did very well the last two elections (joint closest 2017, and dead on 2015 when everyone else was miles off).
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    FWIW, Leamington & Warwick feels a lot, lot closer than I thought it would be. There is a lot of Labour support evident in the Leamington part of the constituency. The same levels as in 2017, I'd guess. However, a lot of students may be heading home for Christmas this weekend. That could decide it.

    Labour has the advantage of a lot of LD and Green votes to squeeze in Leamington since no one would suggest either are in the contest for the seat.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
    If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
    If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
    It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I think where it hurts is your Guildford's of this world.
    You beat me to it. Major is much more popular than Boris in Surrey.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Betfair Con Maj price still rock steady at 1.4.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I doubt it'll have any significant impact either way. If I'm on the streets of Bishop Auckland or Don Valley, how many people will have even heard John Major's views? And them of those, how many are going to be of a group that disliked John Major's Conservatives so viscerally that they'll want to do the opposite of what he demands?

    Likewise, in the South, how many Remainer Tories are going to say "oh well, that enormous success John Major wants me to vote LibDem... I guess I will then..."? I'm going to go for an almost equally imperceptible number.
  • alb1on said:

    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I think where it hurts is your Guildford's of this world.
    You beat me to it. Major is much more popular than Boris in Surrey.
    The one lucky thing for the Tories is I can't see them going for Comrade Corbyn and the Lib Dem campaign has been absolutely shocking.
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    panelbase poll out
    UK Election: Conservatives 43% (Up 1 Point), Labour 34% (Unchanged) - Panelbase Poll

    https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1203003998787256323
  • llef said:

    panelbase poll out
    UK Election: Conservatives 43% (Up 1 Point), Labour 34% (Unchanged) - Panelbase Poll

    https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1203003998787256323

    The Andrew Neil Effect! :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    woody662 said:

    Will have no impact at all, more down to the possibility of Lib Dems switching to Labour after their shambolic campaign.

    Jeremy Corbyn's unfavourables with current LibDem voters are now something like -73 (which is almost as bad as with Conservative voters). I suspect that will make it incrementally harder for the Labour Party to squeeze the LDs from here.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    rcs1000 said:

    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I doubt it'll have any significant impact either way. If I'm on the streets of Bishop Auckland or Don Valley, how many people will have even heard John Major's views? And them of those, how many are going to be of a group that disliked John Major's Conservatives so viscerally that they'll want to do the opposite of what he demands?

    Likewise, in the South, how many Remainer Tories are going to say "oh well, that enormous success John Major wants me to vote LibDem... I guess I will then..."? I'm going to go for an almost equally imperceptible number.
    I agree. What he will do is reinforce the large number of Guildford Conservative members supporting Milton. Angela Richardson has been so down on helpers (due to the memberships disgust at Milton;s treatment) that she has had to appeal for help from nearby constituencies.
  • The big story today seems to be the Joseph McCann case.
  • The polls do seem to be herding round a 9-10% lead with 5 days left from tomorrow

    I just cannot see labour closing the gap
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Nice one Panelbase!
  • 9 points. We can do this.
  • The polls do seem to be herding round a 9-10% lead with 5 days left from tomorrow

    I just cannot see labour closing the gap

    Boris has to avoid crashing the clown car this evening. You so know the media are ready for the smallest slip up as they really hate being made a fool of with Boris' slippery behaviour of the Neil interview.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Jason said:

    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

    Leave him alone - he's hardly going to post about the Lib Dems so there has to be something to keep spirits up
  • maaarsh said:

    Jason said:

    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

    Leave him alone - he's hardly going to post about the Lib Dems so there has to be something to keep spirits up
    The Lib whos?
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Stocky said:

    andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
    If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
    It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

    I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

    The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203004459405729793

    Given that they're apparently working with data gathered up to and including today, that's another encouraging one for the Tories. Five days remaining and still no sign of the big three gaining or losing large numbers of voters over the last 10-12 days.

    Again, it looks like the voters have made their minds up and the campaign may effectively have ended. Now it's probably just a matter of how far this election departs from UNS, and whether or not the pollsters are underestimating/overestimating one side or the other.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,844
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair Con Maj price still rock steady at 1.4.

    Eve of poll 1.2.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.

    They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,844

    9 points. We can do this.

    Genuine water cooler moment, the Neil takedown. One of the few in this election. So you never know. Couple more 'events' like that ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Jason said:

    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

    Four out of five and Neil will have an orgasm.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    Corbyn is a sympathiser of all those HE regards as "victim groups". Some of those groups are terrorists.
  • Meanwhile, to put tonight's debate into its proper perspective:

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/brawling-spewing-snogging-boozy-brits-21034936

    "Brawling, spewing and snogging: Boozy Brits braced for Mad Friday carnage

    The Christmas season is upon us and for millions of Brits who have spent a year hard at work, that means getting well and truly hammered

    The night (also known as Black Eye Friday) is notorious for fights, vomiting, public nudity and arrests as people take advantage of free company booze and festive good cheer."


    I think we should have elections in December every time!


  • BluerBlue said:

    Meanwhile, to put tonight's debate into its proper perspective:

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/brawling-spewing-snogging-boozy-brits-21034936

    "Brawling, spewing and snogging: Boozy Brits braced for Mad Friday carnage

    The Christmas season is upon us and for millions of Brits who have spent a year hard at work, that means getting well and truly hammered

    The night (also known as Black Eye Friday) is notorious for fights, vomiting, public nudity and arrests as people take advantage of free company booze and festive good cheer."


    I think we should have elections in December every time!


    I do wonder who decided to put two debates on a Friday night.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    How about inviting convicted terrorists to the Houses of Parliament days after they assassinated an MP and tried to assassinate the Prime Minister? For that alone Corbyn isn't an option.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    kinabalu said:

    Jason said:

    I still reckon Corbyn will cling on, even in that scenario.

    Really? I think he's ready to step down for a quieter life.
    He's not the same man he was in 2015. He's harder, more wily (yes, really) and calculating, and the hunger for the position and its prominence might stay with him now, in a way that was definitely not true of him for his 30+ years in parliament. The job has changed him.
  • 9 points. We can do this.

    Fascinating what the spectre of 2017 has done to us all, a 9 point deficit before then would have pretty much spelled game over as far as I was concerned.
  • 9 points. We can do this.

    How's that whole gap-closing thing going?

    5 campaigning days left...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,710
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair Con Maj price still rock steady at 1.4.

    Drifting like a barge was 1.39
  • BluerBlue said:

    Meanwhile, to put tonight's debate into its proper perspective:

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/brawling-spewing-snogging-boozy-brits-21034936

    "Brawling, spewing and snogging: Boozy Brits braced for Mad Friday carnage

    The Christmas season is upon us and for millions of Brits who have spent a year hard at work, that means getting well and truly hammered

    The night (also known as Black Eye Friday) is notorious for fights, vomiting, public nudity and arrests as people take advantage of free company booze and festive good cheer."


    I think we should have elections in December every time!


    I do wonder who decided to put two debates on a Friday night.
    The metropolitan media elite who have no idea about the world of ordinary folk outside the M25

    Hence Brexit
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Alistair said:

    I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.

    They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.

    Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.

    Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
  • Chameleon said:

    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    How about inviting convicted terrorists to the Houses of Parliament days after they assassinated an MP and tried to assassinate the Prime Minister? For that alone Corbyn isn't an option.
    Not just that...

    Why DID Jeremy Corbyn share offices with a convicted IRA bomb maker... who was embroiled in a £550k scandal?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7757293/Why-DID-Jeremy-Corbyn-share-offices-convicted-IRA-bomb-maker.html

    Jeremy Corbyn, the bomb-maker's friend: IRA terrorist gloried in the Hyde Park bombing - yet after he left jail, admirer Corbyn helped create a council job for him and he jumped a 12,000-strong queue for genteel Islington council flat

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752923/Jeremy-Corbyn-bomb-makers-friend-IRA-terrorist-admirer-Corbyn.html
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    CHB & kinablau = Bonnie & Clyde
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    "The night (also known as Black Eye Friday) is notorious for fights, vomiting, public nudity and arrests as people take advantage of free company booze and festive good cheer."

    That is what happens when you invite the CEO and CFO.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair Con Maj price still rock steady at 1.4.

    Drifting like a barge was 1.39
    Cling to all you can
  • Alistair said:

    I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.

    They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.

    Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.

    Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
    Much my thoughts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair Con Maj price still rock steady at 1.4.

    Drifting like a barge was 1.39
    Cling to all you can
    And it BS...the resistance level for two days has been 1.40. It bounces around there, and £10k's gets stuck on either side of it.
  • My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    9 points. We can do this.

    So close to double digits! Suspect this is the last Panelbase before the final one on Wednesday.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited December 2019

    My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    I agree with you Mark

    It may also see only the politically engaged watching tonight while the rest go off to the pub
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    rcs1000 said:

    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I doubt it'll have any significant impact either way. If I'm on the streets of Bishop Auckland or Don Valley, how many people will have even heard John Major's views? And them of those, how many are going to be of a group that disliked John Major's Conservatives so viscerally that they'll want to do the opposite of what he demands?

    Likewise, in the South, how many Remainer Tories are going to say "oh well, that enormous success John Major wants me to vote LibDem... I guess I will then..."? I'm going to go for an almost equally imperceptible number.
    All the old politicians and spin doctors that people dont like were campaigning for Remain and now for the Lib Dems or Independent Remain candidates. Why is their advice treated as if it means something now when it didn't then?
  • Mr. Littlewood, more than ever, politics seems defined by negativity.

    Can't claim I'm otherwise. If Labour had a decent leader I might be looking to vote that way (or Lib Dem) given the Conservative leader isn't exactly fantastic, but in a forced Johnson/Corbyn choice I'm not willing to risk the far left.
  • Also worth saying that the BMG poll wouldn’t necessarily lead to a HP, it depends where the lead is (obviously).

    I wouldn’t expect a whacking majority on a 6 percent gap, but I could quite easily see one of say, 2-12.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    The one's still struggling are those Conservative remainers in and around London faced with Conservative candidates like Raab and Goldsmith who do not represent their views.
  • Mad Friday is usually the last Friday before Christmas when a lot of workers go out after work ie December 20
  • My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    The only ones I can think of are your Southern soft Tory remainer types, thinking can we really go for Boris or do we go Lib Dem. That could obviously swing 10 seats in the South.

    The big factor in this GE, given how the Tories have set their campaign, is do they break the Red firewall in the Midlands and especially the North. If they don't, all those southern seats are going to make it very iffy for a majority, if they do, things could swing a lot more than UNS to the Tories.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,710

    Chameleon said:

    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    How about inviting convicted terrorists to the Houses of Parliament days after they assassinated an MP and tried to assassinate the Prime Minister? For that alone Corbyn isn't an option.
    Not just that...

    Why DID Jeremy Corbyn share offices with a convicted IRA bomb maker... who was embroiled in a £550k scandal?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7757293/Why-DID-Jeremy-Corbyn-share-offices-convicted-IRA-bomb-maker.html

    Jeremy Corbyn, the bomb-maker's friend: IRA terrorist gloried in the Hyde Park bombing - yet after he left jail, admirer Corbyn helped create a council job for him and he jumped a 12,000-strong queue for genteel Islington council flat

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752923/Jeremy-Corbyn-bomb-makers-friend-IRA-terrorist-admirer-Corbyn.html
    Source Daily Mail so ignore.

    I seem to remember they and you said he was a Czech spy
  • My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    Welcome to PB Mark.

    Yes everything is about turnout.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    Chameleon said:

    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    How about inviting convicted terrorists to the Houses of Parliament days after they assassinated an MP and tried to assassinate the Prime Minister? For that alone Corbyn isn't an option.
    Not just that...

    Why DID Jeremy Corbyn share offices with a convicted IRA bomb maker... who was embroiled in a £550k scandal?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7757293/Why-DID-Jeremy-Corbyn-share-offices-convicted-IRA-bomb-maker.html

    Jeremy Corbyn, the bomb-maker's friend: IRA terrorist gloried in the Hyde Park bombing - yet after he left jail, admirer Corbyn helped create a council job for him and he jumped a 12,000-strong queue for genteel Islington council flat

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752923/Jeremy-Corbyn-bomb-makers-friend-IRA-terrorist-admirer-Corbyn.html
    Source Daily Mail so ignore.

    I seem to remember they and you said he was a Czech spy
    FAKE NEWS - I said he was too thick to be a spy. I said he was a useful idiot willing to chat to our enemies, but spies are highly intelligent.
  • Positive leader ratings only model (6.5% Tory lead) gives the Tories 322 seats in my model, or an effective majority of zero.

    So you are right & all the professional polling companies are wrong?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

    It's straw clutching. Should there continue to be no sign in the polls that this has made the blindest bit of difference, then the final fallback position will be "are the polls wrong?" and there'll be threads about that until the results come in.

    The polls might be wrong, of course (and I certainly don't discount the possibility of the Labour Leavers abandoning the Tories in the polling booth,) but all of this does rather smack of wishful thinking.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,710
    Con Maj now drifting even more like a barge to 1.41
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    alb1on said:

    My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    The one's still struggling are those Conservative remainers in and around London faced with Conservative candidates like Raab and Goldsmith who do not represent their views.
    They do not represent their views on Brexit. They may represent several of their other views.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Brom said:


    Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.

    I doubt it'll have any significant impact either way. If I'm on the streets of Bishop Auckland or Don Valley, how many people will have even heard John Major's views? And them of those, how many are going to be of a group that disliked John Major's Conservatives so viscerally that they'll want to do the opposite of what he demands?

    Likewise, in the South, how many Remainer Tories are going to say "oh well, that enormous success John Major wants me to vote LibDem... I guess I will then..."? I'm going to go for an almost equally imperceptible number.
    All the old politicians and spin doctors that people dont like were campaigning for Remain and now for the Lib Dems or Independent Remain candidates. Why is their advice treated as if it means something now when it didn't then?
    I don't think endorsements (either for or against) have much impact. People like to make up their own minds on things.
  • Jason said:

    Stocky said:

    andy3664 said:

    Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

    A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
    If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
    It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

    I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

    The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
    I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.

    If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    I`ve railed against bloody floating voters for years. But I should fess up and say that I am seriously considering abandoning the LibDems next week in favour of the Greens. I cannot align myself with some of Swinson`s comments, such as those around transgender issues and her refusals to defend LibDem`s role in the coalition government.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    melcf said:

    I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
    Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
    Let me think
    - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
    - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
    - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
    - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
    - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
    - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
    --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

    There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?

    Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

    I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
  • Positive leader ratings only model (6.5% Tory lead) gives the Tories 322 seats in my model, or an effective majority of zero.

    So you are right & all the professional polling companies are wrong?
    123 now since labour had a lead and that was only 1%
  • Mr. Owls, 'drifting like a barge' = 'drifting by the smallest measurable margin'?

    Not saying we shouldn't pay attention to even small changes, but calling mice mountains is a bit inaccurate.
  • Alistair said:

    I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.

    They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.

    Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.

    Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
    Issues like this can impact on turnout. The question is how much.

    I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    Con Maj now drifting even more like a barge to 1.41

    And now 1.40...you don't really understand markets do you. Probably why you are such a Jezza fan boy.
  • My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    I don't think many people float between all three, ever. I think some centrists will move, normally to a centrist party, but most are tribal and swallow any crap that their tribe gives them, or decline to vote at all
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

    I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

    Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

    The one's still struggling are those Conservative remainers in and around London faced with Conservative candidates like Raab and Goldsmith who do not represent their views.
    They do not represent their views on Brexit. They may represent several of their other views.
    Fair point, but it is that conflict which causes the struggle. And in a seat like Guildford it is exacerbated by the presence of a Conservative (Milton) who does represent their views, including Brexit. This is why so many party members have abandoned Richardson in favour of Milton.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,710
    NOM in to 3.75
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Upon until 2017, wasn't the conventional wisdom that campaigns really didn't shift thing that much anyway...and that whatever the gap at the start was pretty much what you ended up with.

    So far, all the trend lines for this campaign have shown such little change in the gap (when you consider the error bars) you have to zoom right in.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    Con Maj now drifting even more like a barge to 1.41

    Back to 1.40
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    NOM in to 3.75

    From 3.76?
This discussion has been closed.