In 2017, the mood music was all "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.
My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.
I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.
Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.
I`ve railed against bloody floating voters for years. But I should fess up and say that I am seriously considering abandoning the LibDems next week in favour of the Greens. I cannot align myself with some of Swinson`s comments, such as those around transgender issues and her refusals to defend LibDem`s role in the coalition government.
I guess it depends on which seat you are in. Understandable in a seat where the LDs have no hope. Equivalent to voting Conservative if they are in with a chance (assuming it is not one of those rare LD/Lab seats).
In 2017, the mood music was all "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.
My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.
I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.
Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.
I'm not sure I believe that. Anecdotally for instance my mother, Ex-public sector manager centrist Labour-leaner, has atypically yet to complete her postal vote. I sense she isn't unusual this election.
I think there's a lot of people who aren't enamoured with the choice in front of them who will eventually plump for what they view is the least worst option, or just not bother.
My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.
I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.
Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.
I`ve railed against bloody floating voters for years. But I should fess up and say that I am seriously considering abandoning the LibDems next week in favour of the Greens. I cannot align myself with some of Swinson`s comments, such as those around transgender issues and her refusals to defend LibDem`s role in the coalition government.
I guess it depends on which seat you are in. Understandable in a seat where the LDs have no hope. Equivalent to voting Conservative if they are in with a chance (assuming it is not one of those rare LD/Lab seats).
I don`t go in for tactical voting - and in any case my constituency votes Tory by a mile anyway.
Feels like the kind of situation where they will be totally fine, albeit reduced majority, but because they are not used to that level of challenge they are panicking a bit. Probably what is happening in a few of the Tory seats like Raabs. And Farage always gets over excited.
Below is the full email, sent by Farage to BXP supporters this afternoon:
"In the last week of the General Election campaign, we are focusing our efforts on seats where we have the best chance of getting Brexit Party MPs elected. That’s why I’m going to South Yorkshire on Monday for a big action day.
Join me on Monday, and let’s get our two Barnsley candidates over the line!
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP
In both Barnsley Central and Barnsley East, it’s a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and Corbyn’s Remainer Labour. Both are Leave-voting Labour seats, where many people feel betrayed by Labour — the party of a second referendum and Remain.
Yet the Conservatives have NEVER won in Barnsley. Only The Brexit Party can beat Corbyn’s Remainer Labour there. That message is winning a lot of support for our candidates — Victoria Felton in Barnsley Central and Jim Ferguson in Barnsley East.
Join me in South Yorkshire on Monday. With your help, we can win! "
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
The solution is more austerity and oven ready Brexit??
In 2017, the mood music was all "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.
Major underlying shift.
Yes - I think this sums up this GE nicely.
Marquee_Mark has been saying this all along.
The election was decided by the ComRes poll on June 11th which effectively ended the Conservative Party leadership election as a contest.
From that point, Johnson, as the only candidate likely to secure a Conservative majority, was always going to become PM and as one of the main leaders of the LEAVE campaign, would be able to count on all or most of the LEAVE vote.
While numerically superior, the REMAIN vote is divided between Labour and the LDs (and others). Once Johnson had neutralised BXP by his "get Brexit done" slogan, he has, despite everything over the past six months, held the whip hand.
Even extending didn't harm him because it was obvious he was dragged into it by Parliament so he had someone to blame.
A cleverer Opposition would have given him his WA but refused an election and nailed him down through the trade negotiations to a BINO position or force him to resign.
I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.
They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.
Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
Issues like this can impact on turnout. The question is how much.
I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome
Would it be in order to quote you on a Conservative leaflet?
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack
Stats for Lefties continues to post upbeat articles for Labour, including one in the Guardian today, but in the quiet of his Twitter commentary, some of the frustration comes out:
In 2017, the mood music was all "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.
Major underlying shift.
Yes - I think this sums up this GE nicely.
Marquee_Mark has been saying this all along.
The election was decided by the ComRes poll on June 11th which effectively ended the Conservative Party leadership election as a contest.
From that point, Johnson, as the only candidate likely to secure a Conservative majority, was always going to become PM and as one of the main leaders of the LEAVE campaign, would be able to count on all or most of the LEAVE vote.
While numerically superior, the REMAIN vote is divided between Labour and the LDs (and others). Once Johnson had neutralised BXP by his "get Brexit done" slogan, he has, despite everything over the past six months, held the whip hand.
Even extending didn't harm him because it was obvious he was dragged into it by Parliament so he had someone to blame.
A cleverer Opposition would have given him his WA but refused an election and nailed him down through the trade negotiations to a BINO position or force him to resign.
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
The solution is more austerity and oven ready Brexit??
Would you rather have a Brexit that isn`t oven-ready.
Of course, Corbyn has been an EU Leaver all his life.
Stats for Lefties continues to post upbeat articles for Labour, including one in the Guardian today, but in the quiet of his Twitter commentary, some of the frustration comes out:
In the crazed world of fake news twitter bollocks. I have to say I miss sites like Left Foot Forward. Actually using you know like real data that wasn't so spun it would dry your clothes at the same time to try to make an argument.
I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.
They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.
Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
Issues like this can impact on turnout. The question is how much.
I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome
Would it be in order to quote you on a Conservative leaflet?
Sounds more accurate than what the Lib Dems were putting out tbh
With the amount of negative press, Corbyn has been stigmatised like herpes or STI. Loads have it, but most never talk about it!? That explains the 40% in 2017? What is the tory catch phrase to the Northern working class in 2019 No bread for 9.5 years, have oven ready Brexit Get shafted for another 5 years
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
The solution is more austerity and oven ready Brexit??
Would you rather have a Brexit that isn`t oven-ready.
Of course, Corbyn has been an EU Leaver all his life.
There is an interview oven ready that Jester is avoiding too
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack
Last time Corbyn got most of the Remainers (undeservedly) and kept a good chunk of the Leavers (deservedly). This time he'll get most of the Remainers (deservedly), and lose most of the Leavers (deservedly). What's left for him is numerically much smaller than in 2017.
With the amount of negative press, Corbyn has been stigmatised like herpes or STI. Loads have it, but most never talk about it!? That explains the 40% in 2017? What is the tory catch phrase to the Northern working class in 2019 No bread for 9.5 years, have oven ready Brexit Get shafted for another 5 years
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.
They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.
Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
Issues like this can impact on turnout. The question is how much.
I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome
Would it be in order to quote you on a Conservative leaflet?
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack
In 2017, he looked good compared to the utterly awful Tory campaign - but I suspect a lot of people had made up their minds about him because of the media without really seeing much of him.
2017 was his second chance at making a first impression, and he polished himself up, kept his temper in check, and didn't look too bad, so I think people gave him the benefit of the doubt.
The antisemitism issues that have come more to the fore since then, and his prevarication on Brexit have pushed him far into -ve popularity again, but this time it's sticking as most people now have a solid impression of him. Doing ok, and not being a three-headed monster aren't enough this time around.
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
Why do you think that we face such a threat Stodge?
Lets be honest, its not just us is it.
You can't blame it all on the Iraq war considering preceding events and the number of countries attacked who had nothing to do with a "war on terror"
So what do you think underpins these attacks throughout the world?
For those confident Conservatives and despairing Socialists, news that demonstrates that the most extreme outsider can defeat the favourite. In the London Chess Classic Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat world champion Magnus Carlsen. In the GE this would be the equivalent of the Greens winning a majority!
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
Your hypothesis is wrong. In reality we are very successful at defeating terrorism in the UK, and God knows we have the experience, as the vast majority of terrorist plots never make it beyond the planning stage. Hundreds of arrests are made every year, and many prosecutions take place.
Occassionally an attack occurs, but even those attacks are nowadays very low-tech compared to the terrorism of the past. Shootings are almost non-existant, and bombings rare and the terrorists resort to using low-quality home made explosives.
Is the counter-terrorism system perfect? Obviously not, but it is effective, and on the whole most would-be terrorists are caught before they can act. I think it would be almost impossible to reduce the level of terrorism any further.
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
This. Although Brexit hasn't helped, Labour's winning coalition contains two types of voter who are much more hesitant about voting for the party this time, pretty much solely due to Corbyn. First there's the metropolitan remainers who think he's crap, pro-Brexit and very possibly antisemitic, but many of whom have inched back into the fold as Labour have come up with some kind of Brexit offer, and they have judged Johnson's sins as worse than Corbyn's - but probably not by enough to make 2017 advances in the south that will offset the second group, traditional working class Labour voters in the Midlands and North. They despise Corbyn for different reasons - because he's the epitome of the north London do-gooder who thinks he understands their lives but doesn't.
There's a fairly simple point. If you voted Brexit because of some unease over immigration and a sense of Britain losing power and pride, why would you cast your vote, even if you'd take a chance on a referendum, for a bloke who is a staunch supporter of the type of immigration (taking in large numbers of the less fortunate) that people like least, and gives every impression he isn't massively keen on Britain having either pride or power?
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
Hubris dear boy keep it in check otherwise we will have to release the video of Chez Saddened at 10pm on GE day 2017!!
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.
It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.
I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.
The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.
I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.
If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)
Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack
Last time Corbyn got most of the Remainers (undeservedly) and kept a good chunk of the Leavers (deservedly). This time he'll get most of the Remainers (deservedly), and lose most of the Leavers (deservedly). What's left for him is numerically much smaller than in 2017.
That's the difference.
So Brexit is the solution to all, simples? So a single mum in Grimsby, recent homeless with her two kids and shafted by universal credit, all thanks to Tories AND who voted leave, is automatically gonna vote Tories this time. Elementary dear Watson ?? Or many in Lincoln will vote Tory despite having a mega prik like Karl McCartney as their candidate ? Who has been involved in expenses fiddling and is generally perceived as an arrogant caunt.. if only life was so simple
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
Feels like the kind of situation where they will be totally fine, albeit reduced majority, but because they are not used to that level of challenge they are panicking a bit. Probably what is happening in a few of the Tory seats like Raabs. And Farage always gets over excited.
Yep, total Brexit Party gains at this election will be zero.
Why do you think that we face such a threat Stodge?
Lets be honest, its not just us is it.
You can't blame it all on the Iraq war considering preceding events and the number of countries attacked who had nothing to do with a "war on terror"
So what do you think underpins these attacks throughout the world?
What do you think is the answer?
No it's far from being solely a UK problem and I never intimated that was the case.
I didn't reference the Iraq War in isolation but the invasion and subsequent de-stabilisation of Iraq leading to the rise of ISIS or ISIL were factors.
It's a multi-layered problem with many facets and responses. There are groups and individuals trying to counter radicalisation at home but if I had to come up with a simple solution, I'd offer capitalism.
People who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble - poverty and resentment are great breeding grounds for extremism.
I also think we need to make a new effort to resolve the Middle East with the Palestinians and others accepting Israel's right to exist backed by Israel supporting (with Saudi oil money) the economic re-generation of the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's best guarantee of survival is or are prosperous stable neighbours.
That's just the start - my point was nearly a generation since 9/11, what progress have we made?
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
Hubris dear boy keep it in check otherwise we will have to release the video of Chez Saddened at 10pm on GE day 2017!!
The thread immediately following the big bong was one of the most extraordinary in PB history. It ain't gonna happen again, but I'd advise against unbottling the champagne just yet.
If the lead was say 10 points going into Election Day then I’m sure they’d take that , I still think though they might be a bit nervous.
Labour are bound to squeeze a bit more out of the Lib Dems and Greens and the turnout could be very difficult to predict at this stage .
In 2017 Labour found in general an extra 3 points from a bigger turnout in their supporters than expected from polls.
It's possible to fall short of a majority with some pretty high leads, so they will be nervous right to the end, but if it is 10 it is pretty hard to not win, even with some major regional variations. I'm expecting it to be closer than that, but only a few % closer than the polls.
My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.
I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.
Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.
The only ones I can think of are your Southern soft Tory remainer types, thinking can we really go for Boris or do we go Lib Dem. That could obviously swing 10 seats in the South.
The big factor in this GE, given how the Tories have set their campaign, is do they break the Red firewall in the Midlands and especially the North. If they don't, all those southern seats are going to make it very iffy for a majority, if they do, things could swing a lot more than UNS to the Tories.
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
The solution is more austerity and oven ready Brexit??
Austerity is the inevitable consequence of an ageing population. What we need to do is to make sure the burden is shared equitably, and to encourage people to retire ever later.
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
Hubris dear boy keep it in check otherwise we will have to release the video of Chez Saddened at 10pm on GE day 2017!!
The thread immediately following the big bong was one of the most extraordinary in PB history. It ain't gonna happen again, but I'd advise against unbottling the champagne just yet.
The last two exit polls have been sensational (and proved to be remarkably correct). Who knows about next Thursday?
For those confident Conservatives and despairing Socialists, news that demonstrates that the most extreme outsider can defeat the favourite. In the London Chess Classic Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat world champion Magnus Carlsen. In the GE this would be the equivalent of the Greens winning a majority!
MVL is world number 4 and the 7th highest rated chess player of all time. He is in no way an extreme outsider Hes been rated world number 2 at his highest
Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.
A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives
Will the BJorgs who immediately stated that it was perfectly acceptable terminology while simultaneously being brilliantly targetted at a certain type of voter also be making desperate attempts to delete their posts? Let's hope they don't succeed 'cos it was fckn hilarious.
1. Campaign period starts, Tory lead around 10% 2. Tories crush Brexit Party, lead expands 3. Labour squeezes Lib Dem vote, lead contracts 4. Tory lead stabilises at 10% again, no further movement
Unless there's a 5. then, whilst party vote shares have changed significantly, the campaign will have made no net difference at all to the Conservative lead.
Your hypothesis is wrong. In reality we are very successful at defeating terrorism in the UK, and God knows we have the experience, as the vast majority of terrorist plots never make it beyond the planning stage. Hundreds of arrests are made every year, and many prosecutions take place.
Occassionally an attack occurs, but even those attacks are nowadays very low-tech compared to the terrorism of the past. Shootings are almost non-existant, and bombings rare and the terrorists resort to using low-quality home made explosives.
Is the counter-terrorism system perfect? Obviously not, but it is effective, and on the whole most would-be terrorists are caught before they can act. I think it would be almost impossible to reduce the level of terrorism any further.
I accept a lot of plots and plans are quickly stopped and I'm sure a lot of heroic work is done unrecognised behind the scenes.
My point wasn't about that - we have this counter-terrorism apparatus in place which no doubt costs millions of pounds which could be spent elsewhere.
Are we going to have to live like this for the rest of time? At what point and in what way can we look forward to a time when we no longer need the depth and volume of counter-terrorist infrastructure? Yes, we may be more safe and secure now than ever and I accept the price of that freedom is eternal vigilance but ultimately a solution to radical Islamism will have to be found - whether that's a political, military or economic solution I'm not sure and it will involve a global as much as a regional effort but I see no sense in which anyone is willing to try to find that resolution.
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
Hubris dear boy keep it in check otherwise we will have to release the video of Chez Saddened at 10pm on GE day 2017!!
The thread immediately following the big bong was one of the most extraordinary in PB history. It ain't gonna happen again, but I'd advise against unbottling the champagne just yet.
I'm sure I handled the surprise with grace and proportion. But I think I'll not risk checking.
Are we going to have to live like this for the rest of time? At what point and in what way can we look forward to a time when we no longer need the depth and volume of counter-terrorist infrastructure? Yes, we may be more safe and secure now than ever and I accept the price of that freedom is eternal vigilance but ultimately a solution to radical Islamism will have to be found - whether that's a political, military or economic solution I'm not sure and it will involve a global as much as a regional effort but I see no sense in which anyone is willing to try to find that resolution.
There has been terrorism of one form or another in the UK since at least the 1880s. Even if Islamist terrorism wanes, and I doubt it will as the source is no longer just the Middle East, we can expect other extremists to take up terrorism to try to advance their cause. I would expect real terrorism from the extreme of the environmental movement in the long run.
Will the BJorgs who immediately stated that it was perfectly acceptable terminology while simultaneously being brilliantly targetted at a certain type of voter also be making desperate attempts to delete their posts? Let's hope they don't succeed 'cos it was fckn hilarious.
Yes that was a point I tried and failed to get traction with.
Before the correction there were plenty of "Boris" fans who were defending what they at that point thought he had said. Which was as follows -
"No problem with people of colour coming here so long as it is controlled."
Not a great look from Luciana Berger in the Lib Dem PEB. I thought it was the antisemetism rather than Brexit that led to her leaving the Labour Party.
I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.
As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable
Missed that you were unwell BJO. Hope it all gets sorted for you very soon and best wishes. Some things are far more important than political disagreements.
1. Campaign period starts, Tory lead around 10% 2. Tories crush Brexit Party, lead expands 3. Labour squeezes Lib Dem vote, lead contracts 4. Tory lead stabilises at 10% again, no further movement
Unless there's a 5. then, whilst party vote shares have changed significantly, the campaign will have made no net difference at all to the Conservative lead.
I think the apparent sine wave is an artefact of "poll-of-polls" and the fact that pollsters publish at different times. I've argued against poll-of-polls in the past because they capture house effects as well as real movements.
The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground. Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.
Hubris dear boy keep it in check otherwise we will have to release the video of Chez Saddened at 10pm on GE day 2017!!
I'll be here. But history shows that some prolific posters won't be. IOS, springs to mind. Though to be fair, he's probably out directing Labour's insurmountable ground game as we speak. P. S. hope you are as well as can be soon. We may disagree on this site, but it has the knack of staying civil.
I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.
As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable
Missed that you were unwell BJO. Hope it all gets sorted for you very soon and best wishes. Some things are far more important than political disagreements.
Not a great look from Luciana Berger in the Lib Dem PEB. I thought it was the antisemetism rather than Brexit that led to her leaving the Labour Party.
There are far more votes in Remain than there are in being nice to Jews.
Last time the polls were this stable during a campaign was 2010, and they got it pretty much spot on (result +7.2%, average of final polls 6.9)
Difference between then and now is that the Lib Dem seat count has broadly switched to the SNP count which makes it harder for Labour but easier for the Tories to get a majority
I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.
They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.
Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.
Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.
Exactly, the question I'm trying to answer is why is Tory Maj a generous 1.4?
I can only assume it isn't lower because the polling range still holds out the possibility of a hung parliament. If BMG's next poll has the lead up, say, 2 points in would expect the price to steam in to 1.2 or lower.
I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'. Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom? Let me think - Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few? - Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children - cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care - Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit - Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises - lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat --- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024
There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?
Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.
But if they are locked up they are unable to murder people on our streets.
For those confident Conservatives and despairing Socialists, news that demonstrates that the most extreme outsider can defeat the favourite. In the London Chess Classic Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat world champion Magnus Carlsen. In the GE this would be the equivalent of the Greens winning a majority!
MVL is world number 4 and the 7th highest rated chess player of all time. He is in no way an extreme outsider Hes been rated world number 2 at his highest
He is a good player but not even near Carlsen. Carlsen is currently on a 105 unbeaten run in classic chess. And Carlsen is even more dominant at blitz and armageddon chess than in the long version. The nature of the LCC means V-L must have won one of the games of the short variants, which is a huge upset. Carlsen smashed Caruana at these short games in the World Championship tie. You are making the mistake of looking at rankings to evaluate winning chances. This often fails in chess (Kasparov, Fischer - and Capablanca going back a century - are examples) because one player may be utterly dominant. And that is Carlsen. He even drew Gawain Jones (a world top 100 player) last year after blundering a full piece in the opening. This is the equivalent of playing tennis with your legs tied together. To give perspective. The 100+ rating point gap between Carlsen and V-L is the equivalent of the gap between a decent grandmaster and an IM (say 500 ranking places).
There has been terrorism of one form or another in the UK since at least the 1880s. Even if Islamist terrorism wanes, and I doubt it will as the source is no longer just the Middle East, we can expect other extremists to take up terrorism to try to advance their cause. I would expect real terrorism from the extreme of the environmental movement in the long run.
True - I've lived in London all my life and have always lived with terror.
I was simply hoping we could be better.
I do agree the next form of terror could well be eco-terrorism which would take a very different form to radical Islamism.
Your hypothesis is wrong. In reality we are very successful at defeating terrorism in the UK, and God knows we have the experience, as the vast majority of terrorist plots never make it beyond the planning stage. Hundreds of arrests are made every year, and many prosecutions take place.
Occassionally an attack occurs, but even those attacks are nowadays very low-tech compared to the terrorism of the past. Shootings are almost non-existant, and bombings rare and the terrorists resort to using low-quality home made explosives.
Is the counter-terrorism system perfect? Obviously not, but it is effective, and on the whole most would-be terrorists are caught before they can act. I think it would be almost impossible to reduce the level of terrorism any further.
I accept a lot of plots and plans are quickly stopped and I'm sure a lot of heroic work is done unrecognised behind the scenes.
My point wasn't about that - we have this counter-terrorism apparatus in place which no doubt costs millions of pounds which could be spent elsewhere.
Are we going to have to live like this for the rest of time? At what point and in what way can we look forward to a time when we no longer need the depth and volume of counter-terrorist infrastructure? Yes, we may be more safe and secure now than ever and I accept the price of that freedom is eternal vigilance but ultimately a solution to radical Islamism will have to be found - whether that's a political, military or economic solution I'm not sure and it will involve a global as much as a regional effort but I see no sense in which anyone is willing to try to find that resolution.
I would suggest never. There will always be those who are so politically discontented or feel so isolated from the mainstream that they resort to violence. And that violence by its very nature must be terrorism because they have nothing else they can do. That is in no way condoning it, just pointing out it is a fact of life. Before Islamism it was Irish Nationalism or Far Left terrorism in Europe. After Islamism it will be something else.
Last time the polls were this stable during a campaign was 2010, and they got it pretty much spot on (result +7.2%, average of final polls 6.9)
Difference between then and now is that the Lib Dem seat count has broadly switched to the SNP count which makes it harder for Labour but easier for the Tories to get a majority
Probably more for 2024 than now, but it does look quite challenging for Labour to get an overall majority of one without a big Scottish recovery. One for Friday morning if we’re not all surprised by a hung Parliament I guess.
I quite enjoy Unherd's 'UnherdBritain' which shows estimated views of each constituency against the national average on a series of issues (the Royals, religion, tax etc). My constituency is more royalist than average, less supportive of immigration, not much in favour of relgion or free speech and dead centre on tax.
Comments
This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.
Major underlying shift.
Marquee_Mark has been saying this all along.
Its been at 1.4 ish all week but some posters insist on reporting every tiny move.
I had my sarcasm button depressed.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1203011112205246464
I think there's a lot of people who aren't enamoured with the choice in front of them who will eventually plump for what they view is the least worst option, or just not bother.
"In the last week of the General Election campaign, we are focusing our efforts on seats where we have the best chance of getting Brexit Party MPs elected. That’s why I’m going to South Yorkshire on Monday for a big action day.
Join me on Monday, and let’s get our two Barnsley candidates over the line!
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP
In both Barnsley Central and Barnsley East, it’s a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and Corbyn’s Remainer Labour. Both are Leave-voting Labour seats, where many people feel betrayed by Labour — the party of a second referendum and Remain.
Yet the Conservatives have NEVER won in Barnsley. Only The Brexit Party can beat Corbyn’s Remainer Labour there. That message is winning a lot of support for our candidates — Victoria Felton in Barnsley Central and Jim Ferguson in Barnsley East.
Join me in South Yorkshire on Monday. With your help, we can win! "
From that point, Johnson, as the only candidate likely to secure a Conservative majority, was always going to become PM and as one of the main leaders of the LEAVE campaign, would be able to count on all or most of the LEAVE vote.
While numerically superior, the REMAIN vote is divided between Labour and the LDs (and others). Once Johnson had neutralised BXP by his "get Brexit done" slogan, he has, despite everything over the past six months, held the whip hand.
Even extending didn't harm him because it was obvious he was dragged into it by Parliament so he had someone to blame.
A cleverer Opposition would have given him his WA but refused an election and nailed him down through the trade negotiations to a BINO position or force him to resign.
Might have to go and deliver there myself lol
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1203009398244818944
Of course, Corbyn has been an EU Leaver all his life.
CON: 345 (+2), 42.9% (+0.3)
LAB: 224 (-2), 32.7% (-0.2)
SNP: 43 (=), 3.9% (=)
LDM: 14 (=), 13.0% (-0.3)
See the graphics for full results.
Changes w/ 1st Dec.
Polls from 29 Nov-6 Dec.
Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/RBprhDOHBg
Loads have it, but most never talk about it!? That explains the 40% in 2017?
What is the tory catch phrase to the Northern working class in 2019
No bread for 9.5 years, have oven ready Brexit
Get shafted for another 5 years
That's the difference.
Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!
As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable
2017 was his second chance at making a first impression, and he polished himself up, kept his temper in check, and didn't look too bad, so I think people gave him the benefit of the doubt.
The antisemitism issues that have come more to the fore since then, and his prevarication on Brexit have pushed him far into -ve popularity again, but this time it's sticking as most people now have a solid impression of him. Doing ok, and not being a three-headed monster aren't enough this time around.
Yep, 9.8% for the six polls this week, compared to 9.7% for last week's set of 11 polls.
Lets be honest, its not just us is it.
You can't blame it all on the Iraq war considering preceding events and the number of countries attacked who had nothing to do with a "war on terror"
So what do you think underpins these attacks throughout the world?
What do you think is the answer?
Seems to be more accurate to me, that You Guv
My attention has just been drawn to the above.
Occassionally an attack occurs, but even those attacks are nowadays very low-tech compared to the terrorism of the past. Shootings are almost non-existant, and bombings rare and the terrorists resort to using low-quality home made explosives.
Is the counter-terrorism system perfect? Obviously not, but it is effective, and on the whole most would-be terrorists are caught before they can act. I think it would be almost impossible to reduce the level of terrorism any further.
There's a fairly simple point. If you voted Brexit because of some unease over immigration and a sense of Britain losing power and pride, why would you cast your vote, even if you'd take a chance on a referendum, for a bloke who is a staunch supporter of the type of immigration (taking in large numbers of the less fortunate) that people like least, and gives every impression he isn't massively keen on Britain having either pride or power?
Or many in Lincoln will vote Tory despite having a mega prik like Karl McCartney as their candidate ? Who has been involved in expenses fiddling and is generally perceived as an arrogant caunt.. if only life was so simple
Never thought I'd write the above. Ever.
Moderate Labour.
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1202212904071811082
https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc
The Tories will be happy with that .
If the lead was say 10 points going into Election Day then I’m sure they’d take that , I still think though they might be a bit nervous.
Labour are bound to squeeze a bit more out of the Lib Dems and Greens and the turnout could be very difficult to predict at this stage .
In 2017 Labour found in general an extra 3 points from a bigger turnout in their supporters than expected from the polls.
I didn't reference the Iraq War in isolation but the invasion and subsequent de-stabilisation of Iraq leading to the rise of ISIS or ISIL were factors.
It's a multi-layered problem with many facets and responses. There are groups and individuals trying to counter radicalisation at home but if I had to come up with a simple solution, I'd offer capitalism.
People who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble - poverty and resentment are great breeding grounds for extremism.
I also think we need to make a new effort to resolve the Middle East with the Palestinians and others accepting Israel's right to exist backed by Israel supporting (with Saudi oil money) the economic re-generation of the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's best guarantee of survival is or are prosperous stable neighbours.
That's just the start - my point was nearly a generation since 9/11, what progress have we made?
Hes been rated world number 2 at his highest
2. Tories crush Brexit Party, lead expands
3. Labour squeezes Lib Dem vote, lead contracts
4. Tory lead stabilises at 10% again, no further movement
Unless there's a 5. then, whilst party vote shares have changed significantly, the campaign will have made no net difference at all to the Conservative lead.
My point wasn't about that - we have this counter-terrorism apparatus in place which no doubt costs millions of pounds which could be spent elsewhere.
Are we going to have to live like this for the rest of time? At what point and in what way can we look forward to a time when we no longer need the depth and volume of counter-terrorist infrastructure? Yes, we may be more safe and secure now than ever and I accept the price of that freedom is eternal vigilance but ultimately a solution to radical Islamism will have to be found - whether that's a political, military or economic solution I'm not sure and it will involve a global as much as a regional effort but I see no sense in which anyone is willing to try to find that resolution.
Before the correction there were plenty of "Boris" fans who were defending what they at that point thought he had said. Which was as follows -
"No problem with people of colour coming here so long as it is controlled."
😫
Pretty graph.
Last time the polls were this stable during a campaign was 2010, and they got it pretty much spot on (result +7.2%, average of final polls 6.9)
IOS, springs to mind. Though to be fair, he's probably out directing Labour's insurmountable ground game as we speak.
P. S. hope you are as well as can be soon.
We may disagree on this site, but it has the knack of staying civil.
I can only assume it isn't lower because the polling range still holds out the possibility of a hung parliament. If BMG's next poll has the lead up, say, 2 points in would expect the price to steam in to 1.2 or lower.
To give perspective. The 100+ rating point gap between Carlsen and V-L is the equivalent of the gap between a decent grandmaster and an IM (say 500 ranking places).
I was simply hoping we could be better.
I do agree the next form of terror could well be eco-terrorism which would take a very different form to radical Islamism.
https://election.unherd.com/