All the polls are rather uncannily coming into line with the topline MRP figures of Con 43%, Lab 32%.
The Labour number was looking rather out of whack with the rest of the polling. I'm imaging the Labour certainty to vote has firmed up to give their increase. No movement from the Conservatives. As I said earlier, without attracting Tories, the Labour vote is pretty much at its ceiling.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
All the polls are rather uncannily coming into line with the topline MRP figures of Con 43%, Lab 32%.
Tories seem firm on 43. Anti-tory vote seems a movable feast. So can Jeremy pull off his 2017 late swing trick again or not?
Probably not, at this stage Mori had CON 45, LAB 40 in 2017. The Corbyn surge had already been recorded accurately, by Mori, Yougov and Survation among others by the second to last week before herding took place.
And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.
Excellent analogy. I think I'd have to vote for Swinson on that basis, though a vote for the greens would give a 50:50 chance of an acceptable outcome.
You could kinda excuse the missus falling for the wiles of a nototorious lothario.
Finding her in bed with Corbyn would really crush your self-esteem....
I'd prefer to find my wife in bed with JC. He'd be wearing pyjamas and trying to persuade her about the evils of capitalism; she'd likely be falling asleep. BJ would be naked, slobbering and trying to impregnate her, with her unable to move due to his considerable mass.
Hmmm..... anybody want to think about this from a WOMAN's point of view?????
Still waiting to hear where you can get that 5/1 against the Conservatives in Ynys Mon. I agree that would be decent odds, but still cannot find better than 2/1.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
You're arguing against yourself. Lab's Brexit policy is of course bonkers but whatever the deal they come up with would be leaving. Even if they replicated every one of the existing terms of our EU membership, if we "left" the EU it would be fulfilling the referendum mandate.
The simplicity of the ballot paper question works both ways: no deal honours the referendum result, as does full on compliance with every EU rule and reg and the obligation to speak French on Wednesdays.
I agree with you but Leavers wouldn't. Therefore such a Ref2 would IMO be fatally compromised. The Boris Deal vs Remain - that works much better.
But anyway, mootest of the moots, Ref2 is not happening. We're out next month.
The residents of Hampstead would get the shock of their cossetted lives when McDonnell's first Budget landed.
p.s. I grew up there, I'm allowed to say it.
Well any Labour government worth its salt will be bad for me and my ilk.
They're the spiritual siblings of low-income Brexit voters who actively want No Deal: they vote passionately and consistently for an outcome that would utterly destroy them if they ever actually got it.
Panelbase was Tory 42 Lab 34 last week so you wouldn't expect too much movement as that's pretty much slap bang in the centre of the current polling averages.
A good poll by Ipsos Mori for the Tories . The only crumb for Labour is that they’ve added 4 points .
I think we’re also expecting a Panelbase later .
Given that the previous Ipsos MORI poll was conducted in mid November during the period of the peak Tory lead, its significance is I think to further support the view that there has been no further narrowing of the lead, beyond that which occured in late November.
Despite the Tory lead falling by 4%, It will rather perversely boost the Tory lead in the wiki polling average timeline, because the previous poll was conducted long enough ago to have fallen out of the 15 poll moving average.
You're arguing against yourself. Lab's Brexit policy is of course bonkers but whatever the deal they come up with would be leaving. Even if they replicated every one of the existing terms of our EU membership, if we "left" the EU it would be fulfilling the referendum mandate.
The simplicity of the ballot paper question works both ways: no deal honours the referendum result, as does full on compliance with every EU rule and reg and the obligation to speak French on Wednesdays.
I agree with you but Leavers wouldn't. Therefore such a Ref2 would IMO be fatally compromised. The Boris Deal vs Remain - that works much better.
But anyway, mootest of the moots, Ref2 is not happening. We're out next month.
I agree we are most probably out next month. As for Leavers not agreeing with me I must tell you I'm not at all surprised. Thank goodness would be one of a range of emotions/responses.
And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.
Excellent analogy. I think I'd have to vote for Swinson on that basis, though a vote for the greens would give a 50:50 chance of an acceptable outcome.
You could kinda excuse the missus falling for the wiles of a nototorious lothario.
Finding her in bed with Corbyn would really crush your self-esteem....
I'd prefer to find my wife in bed with JC. He'd be wearing pyjamas and trying to persuade her about the evils of capitalism; she'd likely be falling asleep. BJ would be naked, slobbering and trying to impregnate her, with her unable to move due to his considerable mass.
Hmmm..... anybody want to think about this from a WOMAN's point of view?????
The gender of the 'wife' and the 'commenter' is not specified :-D
Still waiting to hear where you can get that 5/1 against the Conservatives in Ynys Mon. I agree that would be decent odds, but still cannot find better than 2/1.
You can`t get 5/1 now. I got 7/2 on Tories two weeks ago.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
It’s not spin, I’m not talking about set piece Election interviews, Cameron refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil at any stage while PM
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
If that is the case it will mean the Tories having to accept higher public spending and, therefore, higher taxes and more borrowing - while also cutting immigration and putting up trade barriers, thus making it far harder to grow the economy. Something will have to give. What will it be?
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.
Excellent analogy. I think I'd have to vote for Swinson on that basis, though a vote for the greens would give a 50:50 chance of an acceptable outcome.
You could kinda excuse the missus falling for the wiles of a nototorious lothario.
Finding her in bed with Corbyn would really crush your self-esteem....
I'd prefer to find my wife in bed with JC. He'd be wearing pyjamas and trying to persuade her about the evils of capitalism; she'd likely be falling asleep. BJ would be naked, slobbering and trying to impregnate her, with her unable to move due to his considerable mass.
Hmmm..... anybody want to think about this from a WOMAN's point of view?????
I really don't know who my wife would rather find me in bed with out of Jez and Boris. She'd probably be a little worried if I were to ask her.
And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.
Excellent analogy. I think I'd have to vote for Swinson on that basis, though a vote for the greens would give a 50:50 chance of an acceptable outcome.
You could kinda excuse the missus falling for the wiles of a nototorious lothario.
Finding her in bed with Corbyn would really crush your self-esteem....
I'd prefer to find my wife in bed with JC. He'd be wearing pyjamas and trying to persuade her about the evils of capitalism; she'd likely be falling asleep. BJ would be naked, slobbering and trying to impregnate her, with her unable to move due to his considerable mass.
Hmmm..... anybody want to think about this from a WOMAN's point of view?????
Nah
I thought so...
I`d like to think that if my wife was to find me in bed with someone it would be Rachel Riley.
You know, the one off of Countdown ... with the numbers and the letters.
Two from the top and one from the bottom, as it were.
So you want to do a great post and you want me to give you the content of it. Is that right?
Yes. I want to do a post that you reply to and say it's a great post. For which we need (i) a topic and (ii) your thinking on it. Any topic other than Jeremy Corbyn is suitable for the exercise.
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You could probably make something that crawls the BBC results page?
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You could probably make something that crawls the BBC results page?
Is the BBC the fastest place to get it? The past few elections they always seem off the pace.
Given that the last Mori poll was more than 3 weeks ago, we don't know if that movement is recent or simply it's the one already recorded by other companies weeks ago. Nevertheless CON 44, LAB 32, LD 13, BRX 2 would give a Conservative majority of 44-64. If tonight's debate doesn't change anything then this election is over.
You are relying heavily on the polls - what if they are all wrong?
This time the polls, the canvassing, the campaigning, and the local anecdotes are all aligning.
Also there is this uncanny thing about elections that they tend to result in what should have been the result of the previous election.
For example if the Conservatives get a majority of 50 in 2019, that was the expected result in 2017, instead it was a Hung Parliament which was the expectation in 2015 and so forth.
Public opinion tends to vote with a time delay of a few years, or regretting their previous vote by correcting it in the future.
“I’m in favour of people of colour coming to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled”
You think that doesn't chime with voters across the country? You can bet that formultion has been focus-grouped to the nth degree.
He is equating it with Brexit. The government already has the ability to control the immigration of non-EU people of colour into the country. But Johnson is right, it is the skin colour that is largely the issue.
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
If that is the case it will mean the Tories having to accept higher public spending and, therefore, higher taxes and more borrowing - while also cutting immigration and putting up trade barriers, thus making it far harder to grow the economy. Something will have to give. What will it be?
They will only go on to face the same, probably insoluble internal contradictions as UKIP and the Brexit Party, whom they are aping. This new base will want higher public spending, nationalisation and a left-leaning nostalgia mixed with nativism. The actual driving forces of UKIP, the Brexit Party and the Tory Right are footloose, highly ideological ultra-capitalists.
Still waiting to hear where you can get that 5/1 against the Conservatives in Ynys Mon. I agree that would be decent odds, but still cannot find better than 2/1.
I got it when I was drunk and in the mood for no-hope drunk bets. Checking back, PP don't put the date on the bet so I will have to estimate - it was the day PP opened the market on it so perhaps 11 November? Is only a tenner, I won't be buying anyone a drink when the tories stroll home!
Given that the last Mori poll was more than 3 weeks ago, we don't know if that movement is recent or simply it's the one already recorded by other companies weeks ago. Nevertheless CON 44, LAB 32, LD 13, BRX 2 would give a Conservative majority of 44-64. If tonight's debate doesn't change anything then this election is over.
You are relying heavily on the polls - what if they are all wrong?
This time the polls, the canvassing, the campaigning, and the local anecdotes are all aligning.
Also there is this uncanny thing about elections that they tend to result in what should have been the result of the previous election.
For example if the Conservatives get a majority of 50 in 2019, that was the expected result in 2017, instead it was a Hung Parliament which was the expectation in 2015 and so forth.
Public opinion tends to vote with a time delay of a few years, or regretting their previous vote by correcting it in the future.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
Look at it this way. Boris's upcoming victory in the election will give the WWC in the North a sharp reminder of how little they matter inside the M25.
So you want to do a great post and you want me to give you the content of it. Is that right?
Yes. I want to do a post that you reply to and say it's a great post. For which we need (i) a topic and (ii) your thinking on it. Any topic other than Jeremy Corbyn is suitable for the exercise.
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You could probably make something that crawls the BBC results page?
Is the BBC the fastest place to get it? The past few elections they always seem off the pace.
The BBC is slow because it waits for the returning officers' official announcements, whereas others are happy to take the reporter's word for it that based on looking at piles of papers and who is smiling, that Huntingdon has gone Conservative and Hackney Labour. Occasionally they will call one for the wrong party.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You could probably make something that crawls the BBC results page?
Is the BBC the fastest place to get it? The past few elections they always seem off the pace.
The BBC is slow because it waits for the returning officers' official announcements, whereas others are happy to take the reporter's word for it that based on looking at piles of papers and who is smiling, that Huntingdon has gone Conservative and Hackney Labour. Occasionally they will call one for the wrong party.
No, their central website updates seem to have been behind Sky. I would say I could scrape twitter, but it is cutting out the BS that is the problem.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
The resort to having interviews in 2015 was a only fallback after Cameron refused to go head to head in a debate with Miliband. By contrast we are having just such a debate tonight. The outrage over Neil is looking pretty manufactured and irrelevant.
If Labour are looking for any positives from that Ipsos Mori.
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
WWC northerners who think that voting for Maggie shifted the Tories to serve their interests are rather thin on the ground in my experience. I suspect the 'Boris northerner' phenomenon will prove a chimera. To them, Brexit wasn't an end in itself but merely a means to sock it to the southern jessies with their money, wine bars and snooty metropolitan ways. In Boris, they'll recognise a chancer when they see one, and will vote accordingly just to piss him off.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
That was on C4, right?
Paxman was at his shouty worst if I recall correctly.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
And a dog whistle
And also, very typically for Johnson, a bare-faced lie. If Britain wants any sort of meaningful deals with the huge of markets of India and China, it's very likely to have much *less* control.
What this shows is Cummings knows that the Brexit vote was partly motivated by racialist, rather than anti-European, feeling, so the solution, as so often in this campaign, is simply to unashamedly lie.
Okay, time to cling desperately to straws. My highly unsophisticated model, which:
*ignore if not interested* just multiplies the vote for a party in all seats by the ratio of current national poll/2017 result, and then assumes 30% tactical voting from Lab -> LD and vice versa, and 10% from Brexit -> Tory....
*resume reading* reckons the Tories need a 9pt lead for the majority. They could just miss it.
The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
Yes that's fine. So he has avoided it and has been called out for it. All good. It's a happy ending.
And only people that weren’t going to vote for him were bothered anyway
That may be true but it remains a disturbing precedent. In the past, all leaders have undertaken these interviews -- ignore the spin about not being able to find Cameron or Ed Miliband facing Neil because it was Paxman in 2015, and both leaders turned up.
That was on C4, right?
Paxman was at his shouty worst if I recall correctly.
And had been phoning it in for several years by then. He really wasn't on top of his brief.
If Labour are looking for any positives from that Ipsos Mori.
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
So it’s going to come down to turnout .
I don't think 6 will be enough for a hung parliament with the Lib Dem vote low. Tories aren't going to lose many seats on remain front and can afford a swing against them. If the Lab to Con swing is 2% in the North and Midlands that should be enough for a small majority.
Labour need to get the Lib Dems down to single figures and hope that the Tory vote share is 40 or 41% at best.
Okay, time to cling desperately to straws. My highly unsophisticated model, which:
*ignore if not interested* just multiplies the vote for a party in all seats by the ratio of current national poll/2017 result, and then assumes 30% tactical voting from Lab -> LD and vice versa, and 10% from Brexit -> Tory....
*resume reading* reckons the Tories need a 9pt lead for the majority. They could just miss it.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
If that is the case it will mean the Tories having to accept higher public spending and, therefore, higher taxes and more borrowing - while also cutting immigration and putting up trade barriers, thus making it far harder to grow the economy. Something will have to give. What will it be?
In the few clips I've seen of voters from the North and Midlands, they seem to think that Brexit will be bad for the rich and good for the poor. Sad deluded fools.
I don't think any PM since Wilson has cared about them, i.e. he did think and say that 'The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'.
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You could probably make something that crawls the BBC results page?
Is the BBC the fastest place to get it? The past few elections they always seem off the pace.
The BBC is slow because it waits for the returning officers' official announcements, whereas others are happy to take the reporter's word for it that based on looking at piles of papers and who is smiling, that Huntingdon has gone Conservative and Hackney Labour. Occasionally they will call one for the wrong party.
In 2017 I recall the BBC videprinter at the foot of the screen showing Tewkesbury had gone to the LibDems. That was almost a coronary moment!
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
He does, and it's very strange that he connects that to Brexit.
Not strange at all - one of the few pluses about Brexit is that it evens up the flow of immigration by removing the current advantages, via FOM, to largely white Europeans and any new system would potentially treat all immigrants the same.
Is there much more of the LibDem vote amenable to a squeeze? How much will never vote for the anti-semites? That seems to be about the only question left to ask in this election.
FWIW I think this might be close to the final outcome. The Libdem slide is going to keep some more SE Tories in the House; the Labour rise will keep their vote slidedown to only semi-disastrous.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
Have you not listened to it? It's a minute in
Of course I have! As if I would say what I just did if I hadn’t!
If Labour are looking for any positives from that Ipsos Mori.
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
So it’s going to come down to turnout .
I presume almost all the postal votes are back by now, in a period where the average Tory lead has been 10 points.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
Okay, time to cling desperately to straws. My highly unsophisticated model, which:
*ignore if not interested* just multiplies the vote for a party in all seats by the ratio of current national poll/2017 result, and then assumes 30% tactical voting from Lab -> LD and vice versa, and 10% from Brexit -> Tory....
*resume reading* reckons the Tories need a 9pt lead for the majority. They could just miss it.
9 point lead? There are Sweet FA chances to tactically vote in the North and Midlands if you are Labour. They would need to smash through the South East & London alongside the Lib Dems and hope for Tory wipeout in Scotland to offset their own losses.
“I’m in favour of people of colour coming to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled”
You think that doesn't chime with voters across the country? You can bet that formultion has been focus-grouped to the nth degree.
That particular phraseology almost seems perfectly written to upset the woke left who will never vote Conservative, over his language, to draw attention to his popular message.
If Labour are looking for any positives from that Ipsos Mori.
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
So it’s going to come down to turnout .
I don't think 6 will be enough for a hung parliament with the Lib Dem vote low. Tories aren't going to lose many seats on remain front and can afford a swing against them. If the Lab to Con swing is 2% in the North and Midlands that should be enough for a small majority.
Labour need to get the Lib Dems down to single figures and hope that the Tory vote share is 40 or 41% at best.
I think this is a fair analaysis. The higher the actual vote share, the less the lead needs to be IMO.
Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.
You're taking over all my traditional jobs on election night, lol.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
He literally says "people of colour".
Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
And a dog whistle
I imagine that in focus groups many of the big issues that come up around immigration are to do with people of colour - from the sub-Continent, Somalis, Romanies, sub-Saharan Africans, etc. It's not done to acknowledge this openly, so we talk more generally about controlling our borders. This is an instance in which Johnson has flicked through his briefing papers and only picked up half the message. But, again, it will not harm him because it merely reflects what his electorate thinks.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
He does, and it's very strange that he connects that to Brexit.
Not strange at all - one of the few pluses about Brexit is that it evens up the flow of immigration by removing the current advantages, via FOM, to largely white Europeans and any new system would potentially treat all immigrants the same.
The flow of immigration is already skewed in favour of non-EU immigrants.
"Subtitles that quoted Boris Johnson as saying he wanted democratic control over the migration of "people of colour" have prompted confusion. Footage of the prime minister speaking on the campaign trail was posted on Twitter by Channel 4. Subtitles attached to the video quoted him as saying: "I am in favour of having people of colour come to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled."
While Downing Street has yet to comment to on the matter, the audio from the clip suggests he in fact refers to "people of talent"."
“I’m in favour of people of colour coming to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled”
You think that doesn't chime with voters across the country? You can bet that formultion has been focus-grouped to the nth degree.
OK - a finely-tuned dog whistle
It's scandalous propaganda, but it's also shamelessly tuning into what Cummings will know is the data on many Brexit voters' motivations. It relies on multiple levels of ignorance, lastly and most particularly of Johnson's actual political goals, but it may be effective.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Yes, he does.
I don’t think so.
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
He literally says "people of colour".
Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
People Of Colour (or POC) is actually the currently correct and woke term in US politics and thus in internet-speak and amongst youngsters globally!
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...
"Subtitles that quoted Boris Johnson as saying he wanted democratic control over the migration of "people of colour" have prompted confusion. Footage of the prime minister speaking on the campaign trail was posted on Twitter by Channel 4. Subtitles attached to the video quoted him as saying: "I am in favour of having people of colour come to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled."
While Downing Street has yet to comment to on the matter, the audio from the clip suggests he in fact refers to "people of talent"."
I'm sure he doesn't say talent..
Actually.. I think he does say talent. I just listened to it with my eyes closed. The subtitles conned me!
If Labour are looking for any positives from that Ipsos Mori.
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
So it’s going to come down to turnout .
I don't think 6 will be enough for a hung parliament with the Lib Dem vote low. Tories aren't going to lose many seats on remain front and can afford a swing against them. If the Lab to Con swing is 2% in the North and Midlands that should be enough for a small majority.
Labour need to get the Lib Dems down to single figures and hope that the Tory vote share is 40 or 41% at best.
I think this is a fair analaysis. The higher the actual vote share, the less the lead needs to be IMO.
I think the following Tory Lab shares lead to a hung parliament based upon what I expect from the Lib Dem performance, SNP performance and probable regional Lab to Con/Con to Lab swing variations and BXP performance in marginals.
Con 40 - Lab 35 Con 41 - Lab 36 Con 42 - Lab 38 Con 43 - Lab 39
ICM (highest Lab share) and possibly BMG (lowest Con share) are the most likely pollsters to show one of these hung parliament scenarios in the next 5 days.
Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
And a dog whistle
And also, very typically for Johnson, a bare-faced lie. If Britain wants any sort of meaningful deals with the huge of markets of India and China, it's very likely to have much *less* control.
What this shows is Cummings knows that the Brexit vote was partly motivated by racialist, rather than anti-European, feeling, so the solution, as so often in this campaign, is simply to unashamedly lie.
Of course it's a lie. The idea that Brexit is the magic lever we need to control "people of colour" immigrating to the UK is absolute nonsense.
Comments
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
I think we’re also expecting a Panelbase later .
The Corbyn surge had already been recorded accurately, by Mori, Yougov and Survation among others by the second to last week before herding took place.
It's not 2017, with 6 days to go.
You think that doesn't chime with voters across the country? You can bet that formultion has been focus-grouped to the nth degree.
But anyway, mootest of the moots, Ref2 is not happening. We're out next month.
Despite the Tory lead falling by 4%, It will rather perversely boost the Tory lead in the wiki polling average timeline, because the previous poll was conducted long enough ago to have fallen out of the 15 poll moving average.
Not quite what I meant, but funny nonetheless
You know, the one off of Countdown ... with the numbers and the letters.
Two from the top and one from the bottom, as it were.
Also there is this uncanny thing about elections that they tend to result in what should have been the result of the previous election.
For example if the Conservatives get a majority of 50 in 2019, that was the expected result in 2017, instead it was a Hung Parliament which was the expectation in 2015 and so forth.
Public opinion tends to vote with a time delay of a few years, or regretting their previous vote by correcting it in the future.
Go figure.
Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202906042759286790
Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst
The polling dates were during a very favourable media for Johnson during the NATO summit . I think it’s pretty evident though that the Tories vote is quite stable so between 42 % to 44 %.
Labour need to get within 6 points to make things uncomfortable for them and that looks difficult. The Lib Dems and Greens are likely to get squeezed on Election Day so adding 2% from the former and 1% from the latter takes them to around 35% .
So it’s going to come down to turnout .
What this shows is Cummings knows that the Brexit vote was partly motivated by racialist, rather than anti-European, feeling, so the solution, as so often in this campaign, is simply to unashamedly lie.
*ignore if not interested* just multiplies the vote for a party in all seats by the ratio of current national poll/2017 result, and then assumes 30% tactical voting from Lab -> LD and vice versa, and 10% from Brexit -> Tory....
*resume reading* reckons the Tories need a 9pt lead for the majority.
They could just miss it.
Labour need to get the Lib Dems down to single figures and hope that the Tory vote share is 40 or 41% at best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMYorpYNMKc
I don't think any PM since Wilson has cared about them, i.e. he did think and say that 'The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'.
FWIW I think this might be close to the final outcome. The Libdem slide is going to keep some more SE Tories in the House; the Labour rise will keep their vote slidedown to only semi-disastrous.
"Subtitles that quoted Boris Johnson as saying he wanted democratic control over the migration of "people of colour" have prompted confusion.
Footage of the prime minister speaking on the campaign trail was posted on Twitter by Channel 4.
Subtitles attached to the video quoted him as saying: "I am in favour of having people of colour come to this country but I think we should have it democratically controlled."
While Downing Street has yet to comment to on the matter, the audio from the clip suggests he in fact refers to "people of talent"."
I'm sure he doesn't say talent..
Boris is in fact being of-the-moment PC here.
Con 40 - Lab 35
Con 41 - Lab 36
Con 42 - Lab 38
Con 43 - Lab 39
ICM (highest Lab share) and possibly BMG (lowest Con share) are the most likely pollsters to show one of these hung parliament scenarios in the next 5 days.