politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number that should worry the Tories
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I'm afraid you're wrong on this.MarqueeMark said:So what? Both Boris and Corbyn are on the telly tonight. How much scrutiny do the voters want? Answer: not as much as Andrew Neil and the BBC want to make a story. Any story.
Boris looks frit. Just like May. Not a good look.3 -
He has already shown us what he will do in a tough negotiation with a foreign power, he will back down, eat shit and sell us shit. Unfortunately he is great at selling us shit so that is what we are getting for the next five years.Beibheirli_C said:
What should be more worrying is that we are electing a PM with no backbone. What will he do if he cannot run away? Perhaps, say, in high level talks or discussions? Will he lie to them and then stab them in the back the next day á la DUP? What will that do for UK plc? He was a trainwreck as For.Sec., as PM he could be an National Emergency.Burgessian said:
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.RochdalePioneers said:
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.MikeSmithson said:A lot of wishful thinking on this thread.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.2 -
Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.1
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Which is why he needs to do the AN interview. Ans quick.Casino_Royale said:One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.0 -
It's ironic how Scottish Labour find themselves in a position where their only safe seat is Edinburgh South which contains some of the poshest residential areas in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
Lots of conservative-sympathising Central Belt voters have been voting SLab and SLD for decades, purely pragmatically. Now that SLab are screwed and the SLDs are largely nowhere, they can safely, and with a clear conscience, vote for their real first choice. Add in that the untypical Tory Ruth is now history and social conservatives and Brexiteers can now cheerfully vote SCon.Burgessian said:
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.StuartDickson said:
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.Andy_JS said:
I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.MikeL said:YOUGOV SCOTLAND POLL (fieldwork 29 Nov to 3 Dec):
SNP 44
Con 28
Lab 15
LD 12
Green 1
Brexit 0
Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.
Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Not long to find out!
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.0 -
Postal voters are far less likely to be floating voters than the average. And those who are floating are particularly unlikely to be among those who filled it in and sent it back straight away.Burgessian said:
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.RochdalePioneers said:
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.MikeSmithson said:A lot of wishful thinking on this thread.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.0 -
Interesting. Lanark and Hamilton East will be the one to watch then - 3 way marginal last time.StuartDickson said:
Lots of conservative-sympathising Central Belt voters have been voting SLab and SLD for decades, purely pragmatically. Now that SLab are screwed and the SLDs are largely nowhere, they can safely, and with a clear conscience, vote for their real first choice. Add in that the untypical Tory Ruth is now history and social conservatives and Brexiteers can now cheerfully vote SCon.Burgessian said:
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.StuartDickson said:
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.Andy_JS said:
I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.MikeL said:YOUGOV SCOTLAND POLL (fieldwork 29 Nov to 3 Dec):
SNP 44
Con 28
Lab 15
LD 12
Green 1
Brexit 0
Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.
Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Not long to find out!
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.0 -
On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?1 -
Ooh, tasty!NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
Best prices - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
SLD 8/13
SNP 7/5
SCon 50/1
If what you say is anywhere near true, then that Tory price of 50/1 looks fantastic value
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Point of Order Mr Speaker.... Major had a majority of 21 IIRC and Hague was never PM and therefore never had a landslide (except one against him). Howard was also never PM nor was IDSnoneoftheabove said:How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS
So I find your list rather curious....0 -
Because Marr is a crap interviewer and he wasn't much cop before he had his stroke.IshmaelZ said:
You or I could have written that list a month ago. Why not just give it to Marr?nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Johnson takes a hit either way here as it was highly unlikely to have any upside for him. He's now better off not doing the interview and weathering the storm as the damage has been done even if he did turn up.0 -
This is how I guess they would have performed vs Corbyn. Facing any other leader was obviously harder.Beibheirli_C said:
Point of Order Mr Speaker.... Major had a majority of 21 IIRC and Hague was never PM and therefore never had a landslide (except one against him). Howard was also never PM nor was IDSnoneoftheabove said:How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS
So I find your list rather curious....0 -
Enraged? Or enjoying the comedy value? I showed it to a friend because it made me laugh, but she is voting LD anywayasjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?
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The Economist:
Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.
A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.0 -
And if Corbyn asks how can you trust Boris to handle Putin and Trump when he won't even do TV interviews?wooliedyed said:I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)
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Aha! Thank younoneoftheabove said:
This is how I guess they would have performed vs Corbyn. Facing any other leader was obviously harder.Beibheirli_C said:
Point of Order Mr Speaker.... Major had a majority of 21 IIRC and Hague was never PM and therefore never had a landslide (except one against him). Howard was also never PM nor was IDSnoneoftheabove said:How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS
So I find your list rather curious....
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”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
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Nothing happening in Amber Valley this time. It used to be a bellwether a few years ago but is a safe Tory seat now, just a few leaflets from the 3 main parties. Adjacent seats are Ashfield, Broxtowe and Bolsover though. Looks like the main parties have concluded that Ashfield (Lab maj 441) is a Con gain for the first time since the 1977 by-election. There's a bit more activity in Broxtowe where Anna Soubry complicates matters but the intensive campaigning is still in Bolsover as it was at the beginning of the campaign.0
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Boris' kompromat file at Lubyanskaya Ploshchad' must be thicker than a Mark Francois sandwich.MaxPB said:Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.
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He will again say he has done many, he is also doing the very debate they are in with the public, on the bbc and that the obsession over a single interviewer is bizarre.eek said:
And if Corbyn asks how can you trust Boris to handle Putin and Trump when he won't even do TV interviews?wooliedyed said:I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)
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The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens0 -
Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
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No, she was seriously angry about it. (Wrongly IMHO but properly annoyed at him )Beibheirli_C said:
Enraged? Or enjoying the comedy value? I showed it to a friend because it made me laugh, but she is voting LD anywayasjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?0 -
There are 2 camps of Postal voters - the committed who see it as an easier option (often up North where Labour did wonders ensuring they can weigh the votes) and a few who need them as they may be working away.IanB2 said:
Postal voters are far less likely to be floating voters than the average. And those who are floating are particularly unlikely to be among those who filled it in and sent it back straight away.Burgessian said:
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.RochdalePioneers said:
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.MikeSmithson said:A lot of wishful thinking on this thread.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
I'm the latter set and the only reason my vote was easy is because I know Boris and can't give him my vote.1 -
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.1 -
Hague and Major lost by landslides to Labour, Corbyn Labour often led Cameron's Tories, only Thatcher might have matched Boris in appeal to the white working class v Corbynnoneoftheabove said:
No, that is a sample of one, and it is a sample vs Corbyn. How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).Banterman said:
The way to judge Boris as a campaigner is to look at the result. Any working majority upwards will say he is a good campaigner.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.CorrectHorseBattery said:I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS0 -
These people know their ballot paper will say Conservative and not Boris right?0
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Of course there is.asjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?0 -
Surely leave Tories aren't going to vote LibDem agitating for a referendum to Stop Brexit any more than they aren't going to vote LibDem planning to scrap Brexit.StuartDickson said:
Indeed. ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
I don't think Bollocks to Brexit was aimed at them. Instead it was aimed at the general mass of punters who had largely forgotten the LibDems exist. On that front it was wildly successful.
Its the same message in my own seat. We are explicitly targeting soft remain Tories who want to stop Brexit but can't vote Corbyn into office. Our message to them is clear - we won't support either Corbyn or Johnson, we will continue to push for a People's Vote.0 -
Thanks for the report. Just 10 years ago Labour had a 48% majority in Bolsover. Another interesting seat in the East Midlands is Gedling to the east of Nottingham. Used to be a safe Tory suburban constituency but it's proving very difficult for them to win back.Gooey_Blob said:Nothing happening in Amber Valley this time. It used to be a bellwether a few years ago but is a safe Tory seat now, just a few leaflets from the 3 main parties. Adjacent seats are Ashfield, Broxtowe and Bolsover though. Looks like the main parties have concluded that Ashfield (Lab maj 441) is a Con gain for the first time since the 1977 by-election. There's a bit more activity in Broxtowe where Anna Soubry complicates matters but the intensive campaigning is still in Bolsover as it was at the beginning of the campaign.
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Over the last week or so about the only interesting posts, apart from polls, have been your weather forecasts. Much of the rest has been shouting at each other so thank you MysticRoseMysticrose said:Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
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Yeah, agree. TBH I still think Jo S wil be OK as East Dunbarts is so middle-class and remainy. But CSER is a totally different kettle of fish. The north coast towns of WIck and Thurso have minimal natural LibDem voters and no councillors. The SCon candidate is a Wick councillor and is called Sinclair! (As is every other person in Caithness - the others are called Mackay). WOuldn't bet against Jamie STone as he is tailor-made to appeal to Tories but he's on a shoogly peg.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
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There is an opportunity for Corbyn if he gets the tone right in asking the scrutiny question to get some of the floating voters more on his side. A big problem for Labour is floating voters dont like him at all.eek said:
And if Corbyn asks how can you trust Boris to handle Putin and Trump when he won't even do TV interviews?wooliedyed said:I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)
I doubt Corbyn will get the tone right on this one but if he does it would have an impact imo.0 -
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.0 -
Worth mentioning that something like 10% of Labour voters in 2017 decided in the final days0
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Theresa May's decision not to take part in the debates in 2017 was one of the things that damaged her most, after the dementia tax and fox hunting. I can't believe the Tories are going to make the same mistake again.asjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?1 -
Only once? That would be regarded as a failure of duty by Northern Ireland parties.eristdoof said:
Remember millions of labour voters have already voted.NorthCadboll said:Remember millions of Tory voters have already voted!
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They appear to have told the other parties, including Labour, that they had already secured Boris Johnson's agreement to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, thus persuading all their leaders to be interviewed by him. This was, not to put too fine a point on it, a lie.eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.1 -
Indeed. It is my home constituency, where I spent the first 16 years of my life, with Malcolm Rifkind as my local MP. I know it like the back of my handAndy_JS said:
It's ironic how Scottish Labour find themselves in a position where their only safe seat is Edinburgh South which contains some of the poshest residential areas in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
Lots of conservative-sympathising Central Belt voters have been voting SLab and SLD for decades, purely pragmatically. Now that SLab are screwed and the SLDs are largely nowhere, they can safely, and with a clear conscience, vote for their real first choice. Add in that the untypical Tory Ruth is now history and social conservatives and Brexiteers can now cheerfully vote SCon.Burgessian said:
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.StuartDickson said:
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.Andy_JS said:I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Not long to find out!
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.
It is catastrophic for SLab to be confined to this precarious foothold: these people are *not* voting for Labour, they are voting against the SNP. They’ll abandon Labour in a microsecond given half a chance.1 -
Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.HYUFD said:
The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens0 -
I've seen this video come up three times on my facebook feed, and I've just scrolled through an "Andrew Neil" search on twitter, so seen the video start around another fifteen times.
Does anyone know how long you need to watch a video for on social media for it to count as a view?0 -
A fight involves two people - comparing an election vs Blair to one vs Corbyn is like comparing boxers records with one fighting Lennox Lewis and the other Frank Spencer.HYUFD said:
Hague and Major lost by landslides to Labour, Corbyn Labour often led Cameron's Tories, only Thatcher might have matched Boris in appeal to the white working class v Corbynnoneoftheabove said:
No, that is a sample of one, and it is a sample vs Corbyn. How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).Banterman said:
The way to judge Boris as a campaigner is to look at the result. Any working majority upwards will say he is a good campaigner.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.CorrectHorseBattery said:I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS0 -
The problem is that all the promises governments have made for decades (and are often still making) are dependent upon much stronger economic growth than we have been having and are likely to have for the foreseeable future.Andy_JS said:
Officially there isn't stagnation in any European country. The economic growth rate (though very small) is higher than the population growth rate, since the populations of many European countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and Portugal is hardly growing at all, despite immigration. Real economic growth takes place of course if the economic growth rate is higher than the population growth rate, (assuming they're not both negative).Foxy said:
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.ThomasNashe said:His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.0 -
One free tip for the Conservatives - stop giving oxygen to the story. Comments like this really don't help them:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12028805242865950731 -
They aren't. Boris is having a debate on the telly tonight.Andy_JS said:
Theresa May's decision not to take part in the debates in 2017 was one of the things that damaged her most, after the dementia tax and fox hunting. I can't believe the Tories are going to make the same mistake again.asjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?0 -
We asked that earlier. The risk is that they get into the booth and not finding Boris on the paper vote for someone else.CorrectHorseBattery said:These people know their ballot paper will say Conservative and not Boris right?
And the first time we will discover if that is the case will be at about 12:50 on Friday morning.0 -
They won't make that same mistake in 2019....CorrectHorseBattery said:Worth mentioning that something like 10% of Labour voters in 2017 decided in the final days
0 -
About 1 second. Most videos lose most viewers in the first few seconds. For practical purposes you can cut that 3.3m in half and say that 1.7m probably watched to the end.TrèsDifficile said:I've seen this video come up three times on my facebook feed, and I've just scrolled through an "Andrew Neil" search on twitter, so seen the video start around another fifteen times.
Does anyone know how long you need to watch a video for on social media for it to count as a view?0 -
The mistake the BBC made was not agreeing a timetable and a broadcast schedule for the interviews, making it much harder for Bozo to pull his interruptus stunt and potentially leave an empty programme.AlastairMeeks said:
They appear to have told the other parties, including Labour, that they had already secured Boris Johnson's agreement to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, thus persuading all their leaders to be interviewed by him. This was, not to put too fine a point on it, a lie.eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.0 -
I suspect Frank Spencer might have more of a chance.noneoftheabove said:
A fight involves two people - comparing an election vs Blair to one vs Corbyn is like comparing boxers records with one fighting Lennox Lewis and the other Frank Spencer.HYUFD said:
Hague and Major lost by landslides to Labour, Corbyn Labour often led Cameron's Tories, only Thatcher might have matched Boris in appeal to the white working class v Corbynnoneoftheabove said:
No, that is a sample of one, and it is a sample vs Corbyn. How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around).Banterman said:
The way to judge Boris as a campaigner is to look at the result. Any working majority upwards will say he is a good campaigner.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.CorrectHorseBattery said:I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS0 -
If the format needs change I have a weird idea. The PM could go on the show and change the format radically by answering questions honestly and openly instead of bumbling, mumbling interspersed with catch phrases and lies. No thats probably too weird.AlastairMeeks said:One free tip for the Conservatives - stop giving oxygen to the story. Comments like this really don't help them:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12028805242865950731 -
Cue Boris on a hunter, in red jacket, blowing on a horn as the foxhounds circle round. Tally ho.Andy_JS said:
Theresa May's decision not to take part in the debates in 2017 was one of the things that damaged her most, after the dementia tax and fox hunting. I can't believe the Tories are going to make the same mistake again.asjohnstone said:On topic, I just had a "civilian" who has never to my knowledge tweeted on the subject of politics share this clip on Twitter enraged with the PMs failure to do the interview.
Maybe there is cut through on it after all?0 -
They will switch from Labour to Brexit Party otherwise still giving the Tories the seat.eek said:
We asked that earlier. The risk is that they get into the booth and not finding Boris on the paper vote for someone else.CorrectHorseBattery said:These people know their ballot paper will say Conservative and not Boris right?
And the first time we will discover if that is the case will be at about 12:50 on Friday morning.
They can it vote direct for Boris like Trump voters can vote direct for Trump at presidential level but Labour Leavers are going Tory or if not Brexit Party leading to Tory gains overall0 -
Yes agree. And the best book on the brilliance of the German army and the difference between the Western Allies, the Germans and the Soviets in terms of willingness to sacrifice lives is Max Hasting's Armageddon. It's a painful, horrific read which will put everybody off war.welshowl said:
Indeed so. We will find out this time next week if it was the correct thing to do.Fenster said:
I reckon Thatcher's one on one interviews did more for her appeal than anything else. Those clipped, clear sentences; the steely glare; the genuine combative emotion. She looked like she would take your head off with her handbag.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Mrs Thatcher's favourite interviewer was Radio 2 DJ Jimmy Young, though she did observe the constitutional proprieties of facing Robin Day during elections.Fenster said:Boris should've done the interview.
It's another example of top politicians and advisers trying to be too clever by half.
Get in there, enjoy the tussle, be emphatic in trying to persuade the interviewer to your point, take the kicking where necessary and be done with it.
Thatcher would've been sat in that interviewee seat a day in advance, loving the opportunity to joust.
He looks like a coward now.
I know she was a bit bonkers but that willingness to take to combat and have the intellectual bravery to make your case is hugely appealing.
I thought Blair was admirable in his defence of Iraq. Even when the evidence was caving in on him he rolled up his sleeves and made very passionate defences of his actions.
Whether for or against your politics I think the electorate like to see politicians fight for their cause.
Hiding and cautiously tiptoeing to the election, hoping to sneak past a shite opponent is not a strong look.
However, I am reminded of the battle for Normandy, in the sense that if the sides clashed on anything like equal terms the Germans usually came out tops against the Allies, because some aspects of their equipment were better, and in many respects they were better at soldiering ( however odious the cause).
But of course in the grander scheme of things it didn’t matter. The Allies task was to win in an acceptable time, at an acceptable cost, not to prove they were “better” on average. They knew they had the numbers, and certain tactical advantages of their own, so they rarely had to meet the Germans on “equal” terms. So they didn’t, and they won.0 -
0
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A lie from whom? Did the BBC editors just make it up? Or were they lied to by the PM or his team?AlastairMeeks said:
They appear to have told the other parties, including Labour, that they had already secured Boris Johnson's agreement to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, thus persuading all their leaders to be interviewed by him. This was, not to put too fine a point on it, a lie.eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.0 -
I’m a bit worried about Lanark.Burgessian said:
Interesting. Lanark and Hamilton East will be the one to watch then - 3 way marginal last time.StuartDickson said:
Lots of conservative-sympathising Central Belt voters have been voting SLab and SLD for decades, purely pragmatically. Now that SLab are screwed and the SLDs are largely nowhere, they can safely, and with a clear conscience, vote for their real first choice. Add in that the untypical Tory Ruth is now history and social conservatives and Brexiteers can now cheerfully vote SCon.Burgessian said:
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.StuartDickson said:
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.Andy_JS said:I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Not long to find out!
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.
I’m also expecting the SCons to significantly increase their majority in East Renfrewshire. I can’t for the life of me understand why they are still 17/20 (Hills, Unibet). I see that the wise Shadsy is currently cutting his price.
0 -
My wife's lot are Sinclairs. The NE is a clan hot-spot.....Burgessian said:
Yeah, agree. TBH I still think Jo S wil be OK as East Dunbarts is so middle-class and remainy. But CSER is a totally different kettle of fish. The north coast towns of WIck and Thurso have minimal natural LibDem voters and no councillors. The SCon candidate is a Wick councillor and is called Sinclair! (As is every other person in Caithness - the others are called Mackay). WOuldn't bet against Jamie STone as he is tailor-made to appeal to Tories but he's on a shoogly peg.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
0 -
Redundant 'sandwich' there.Dura_Ace said:
Boris' kompromat file at Lubyanskaya Ploshchad' must be thicker than a Mark Francois sandwich.MaxPB said:Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.
2 -
And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.0
-
If the interview does come up tonight Boris should hammer on the 'this is the format that matters, with public interaction' angle, make the audience and viewers feel important, sideline the egos0
-
HYUFD got this wrong. Scottish Greens are basically a subset of the Yes movement. Their original leader, Robin Harper, wasn't but the current lot are fully signed up pro-Indy.IanB2 said:
Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.HYUFD said:
The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens0 -
Were you up for Ed?nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1202663561413177344
Ed Miliband is in trouble.0 -
I suspect the answer to that question is not Boris for very different reasons to the ones I would usually give.Fenster said:And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.
0 -
Lovely phrase.Burgessian said:made to appeal to Tories but he's on a shoogly peg.
I am not looking it up because I hope it means he has a dodgy wooden leg like Long John Silver. And a parrot.
0 -
"Were you up for Miliband?"nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1202663561413177344
Ed Miliband is in trouble.0 -
If Corbyn asks that question, he’ll get a mouthful back about Johnson being at the NATO summit this week, and what does Corbyn think about NATO?eek said:
And if Corbyn asks how can you trust Boris to handle Putin and Trump when he won't even do TV interviews?wooliedyed said:I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)
0 -
The reasons given are the reasons I'm not betting in this election.nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1202663561413177344
Ed Miliband is in trouble.
Boris could have a minority Government or a majority of 100+ seats. I can't actually tell and truth be told no-one here can probably tell either.
Once the first actual results are announced I think the result will be obvious but until then...1 -
Just watching the BBC saying they will exercise their audience selection skills for the debate this evening.
Abusive bearpit, then.
1 -
Actually they could have done. Neill could have asked his questions to an empty chair and if the BBC had aired that in the interview slot then that would have been well watched. They could have told all the leaders "If you fail to turn up we will Empty Chair you"eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.
TBH, if they had broadcast Neill sitting opposite an empty chair and saying nothing, that would have been shown all over the world because for a PM to show such cowardice is virtually unknown.1 -
I don't think that would have worked. The only thing that would have worked would have been for Johnson to go first.IanB2 said:
The mistake the BBC made was not agreeing a timetable and a broadcast schedule for the interviews, making it much harder for Bozo to pull his interruptus stunt and potentially leave an empty programme.AlastairMeeks said:
They appear to have told the other parties, including Labour, that they had already secured Boris Johnson's agreement to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, thus persuading all their leaders to be interviewed by him. This was, not to put too fine a point on it, a lie.eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.
But then you are basically admitting that he is much less trustworthy than other leaders...0 -
It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.0 -
By the way the 44% tory share in the Wrexham poll is right in line with the tories getting 70% of the Leave vote. And about a fifth of the Remain vote.
So people should be *very* careful when they say Tories simply can't win in ex industrial towns.....especially if an area that voted 70% Leave.
They can, and they will.1 -
By the time it's announced if Ed's gone it won't be a surprise - for the reasons I gave below.Slackbladder said:
Were you up for Ed?nunu2 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1202663561413177344
Ed Miliband is in trouble.0 -
My preference would be for an interview with Little Boris from The Mash Report.Beibheirli_C said:
Actually they could have done. Neill could have asked his questions to an empty chair and if the BBC had aired that in the interview slot then that would have been well watched. They could have told all the leaders "If you fail to turn up we will Empty Chair you"eek said:
I'm not sure how it could have done things differently - it can't say we will be interviewing you at 19:30 on Tuesday turn up or we will be playing a compilation of you looking like an idiot.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree with your view on this.nico67 said:Johnson not doing the AN interview is not the biggest issue . I think it’s the list of questions put by AN which are more of a problem .
Incidentally, the BBC has behaved appallingly in this election. In its wake, it needs to have a searching inquest to identify how it has managed to be played so completely by the government.
TBH, if they had broadcast Neill sitting opposite an empty chair and saying nothing, that would have been shown all over the world because for a PM to show such cowardice is virtually unknown.0 -
You might be a Scottish Green who voted for them over climate change concerns, not nationalism, the clue is in the title.Burgessian said:
HYUFD got this wrong. Scottish Greens are basically a subset of the Yes movement. Their original leader, Robin Harper, wasn't but the current lot are fully signed up pro-Indy.IanB2 said:
Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.HYUFD said:
The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens
If you are voting Scottish National Party you are mainly voting for them for one reason0 -
Opens the door for all politicians to refuse interviews that don't suit them.CorrectHorseBattery said:
A very bad day for democracy, but that's what we've come to expect from our Eton-grown Trump.4 -
No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
0 -
The public will boo him now.wooliedyed said:If the interview does come up tonight Boris should hammer on the 'this is the format that matters, with public interaction' angle, make the audience and viewers feel important, sideline the egos
You tories have your head in the sand.2 -
People said the same thing about the whole of Scotland, which makes me think Tories have a chance in Caithness.alb1on said:
It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.1 -
Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...IanB2 said:The Economist:
Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.
A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.1 -
Your data actually supports my contention.alb1on said:
It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
(Incidentally, I’m not a Conservative.)0 -
What are the raisons d'être of SLab and the SLDs? If it's not Unionism, that's an awfy weedy Unionist minority you've got there.HYUFD said:
You might be a Scottish Green who voted for them over climate change concerns, not nationalism, the clue is in the title.Burgessian said:
HYUFD got this wrong. Scottish Greens are basically a subset of the Yes movement. Their original leader, Robin Harper, wasn't but the current lot are fully signed up pro-Indy.IanB2 said:
Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.HYUFD said:
The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens
If you are voting Scottish National Party you are mainly voting for them for one reason2 -
If they can’t find an audience of genuine floating voters, rather than party activists spouting predetermined ‘talking points’, then the programme would be much better off with no live audience at all.MattW said:Just watching the BBC saying they will exercise their audience selection skills for the debate this evening.
Abusive bearpit, then.3 -
We are heading for a landslide tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?0 -
0
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HY is a classic foot shooter.IanB2 said:
Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.HYUFD said:
The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNPStuartDickson said:
Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.HYUFD said:
No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.StuartDickson said:
Yepp.kle4 said:
Ugh, indy majority at Holyrood.CarlottaVance said:
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens0 -
No. The SNP have a chance. The Conservatives will come 3rd again (and my some margin).nunu2 said:
People said the same thing about the whole of Scotland, which makes me think Tories have a chance in Caithness.alb1on said:
It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.StuartDickson said:
”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.Burgessian said:
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.NorthCadboll said:Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.0 -
O/T
"NSW bushfire emergency continues as 'mega blaze' bears down on Sydney"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-06/nsw-bushfire-rfs-emergency-friday-live-blog/117737260 -
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We are anticipating many taking a look at their ballot paper and falling under the spell of that Brexit Party arrow?nunu2 said:We are heading for a landslide tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?0 -
Britons are twice as likely to trust the Tories on handling terrorism compared to Labour.
43-45% of Britons most trust Con/Johnson
21-22% most trust Lab/Corbyn
91-93% of Con voters most trust Con/Johnson, but only 59-60% Lab voters most trust Lab/Corbyn
https://t.co/AmR9cyw5hs https://t.co/j9QIGkaj4D0 -
HYUFD said:
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
3 -
2017 happened. I'll wait for the weekend polls, last year there were a few that came close to predicting the result. If they are all 6 points upwards lead for the Tories this weekend then hung parliament becomes very unlikely.nunu2 said:We are heading for a landslide tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
We are heading for a landslide Tory win
Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?
Most postal votes already sent off I'd imagine.0 -
Gallowgate said:
I’m sporting some fetching ‘designer’ stubble to be honest. I’m not sure if that falls within @Casino_Royale ’s anguish.
That’s ok.
If you had a pony tail I might vomit, though.0
