The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
tariff comes from the Arabic ta9riif - making something known or a sign used to post rates of things. Perhaps a sticker, slapped onto a product?
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Which could, of course, turn out to be masterful.
You can’t hide forever. Is he going to run away from trade summits?
The context of this remark was the campaign. I am on the record as saying he should have done the interview. And you are right - running away is not a good quality in a leader.
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
I find it hard to see how we could come to a mutually acceptable agreement with the US, simply because the things they most want out of a trade deal are the things that are more politically sensitive in the UK.
I can imagine a limited Services agreement coming before a wholesale goods agreement, focusing on financial services. That way the Anglosaxon financial system get to write the rules for the rest of the world for the next few decades.
Aside from the over-egged health sector fears, which bits do you think are most difficult to agree? Personally I don't think the agri stuff is that big a deal and can be delivered if there's a majority government in the UK.
The Andrew Neil piece was then followed by a rather gentle ITV interview of JC.....where JC came across as nothing like the left wing firebrand the DM would have folk believe...i would say Tories came off badly last night
It's amazing the double standards they will employ to ignore the fact that Boris is an unparalleled liar, and to deny that his refusal to stand up for himself and be held to the same rigorous account as the other leaders is a deeply compromised activity. There is no way getting around that it stinks. They are being hypocrites and it is abiut time they were called out and that Bkris was. 'Oh but Neil is throwing a hissy fit' pathetic. Grow up.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Which could, of course, turn out to be masterful.
You can’t hide forever. Is he going to run away from trade summits?
The context of this remark was the campaign. I am on the record as saying he should have done the interview. And you are right - running away is not a good quality in a leader.
And yet you want a majority for this man at such a critical moment.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
The great irony is it's mostly the elderly who froth about immigration, when it's thanks to them that it's happening. Similarly, they tend to be the ones complaining about benefits, when most of the money the government doles out to people not in work goes to them. And then they all insist on voting for a party that protects their benefits while slashing spending on things that will actually help the country prosper in the future, like education. I don't mind my six figure tax bill but I'd rather see it spent on my kids' school than on featherbedding pensioners any further.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
The Andrew Neil piece was then followed by a rather gentle ITV interview of JC.....where JC came across as nothing like the left wing firebrand the DM would have folk believe...i would say Tories came off badly last night
It's amazing the double standards they will employ to ignore the fact that Boris is an unparalleled liar, and to deny that his refusal to stand up for himself and be held to the same rigorous account as the other leaders is a deeply compromised activity. There is no way getting around that it stinks. They are being hypocrites and it is abiut time they were called out and that Bkris was. 'Oh but Neil is throwing a hissy fit' pathetic. Grow up.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
I find it hard to see how we could come to a mutually acceptable agreement with the US, simply because the things they most want out of a trade deal are the things that are more politically sensitive in the UK.
I can imagine a limited Services agreement coming before a wholesale goods agreement, focusing on financial services. That way the Anglosaxon financial system get to write the rules for the rest of the world for the next few decades.
Aside from the over-egged health sector fears, which bits do you think are most difficult to agree? Personally I don't think the agri stuff is that big a deal and can be delivered if there's a majority government in the UK.
There are no tariffs on services sold between the UK and the US.
Re agriculture, see Monsanto vs Province of Quebec. A proposed labelling law (requiring food containing GM ingredients to be labelled as such) was overturned by a US ISDS. British farmers will be up in arms if they can't grow GM crops, and they can't differentiate their crops from US GM ones.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Which could, of course, turn out to be masterful.
You can’t hide forever. Is he going to run away from trade summits?
The context of this remark was the campaign. I am on the record as saying he should have done the interview. And you are right - running away is not a good quality in a leader.
And yet you want a majority for this man at such a critical moment.
I want a Tory majority, not a majority for 'this man'. I do not get to chose a Tory majority with another leader at this point. Or is that too subtle a distinction?
The interesting thing will be whether Andrew Neil will be prepared to interview Boris a week or so after the election - or whether he will be frit and run away
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
I find it hard to see how we could come to a mutually acceptable agreement with the US, simply because the things they most want out of a trade deal are the things that are more politically sensitive in the UK.
I can imagine a limited Services agreement coming before a wholesale goods agreement, focusing on financial services. That way the Anglosaxon financial system get to write the rules for the rest of the world for the next few decades.
Aside from the over-egged health sector fears, which bits do you think are most difficult to agree? Personally I don't think the agri stuff is that big a deal and can be delivered if there's a majority government in the UK.
There are no tariffs on services sold between the UK and the US.
Re agriculture, see Monsanto vs Province of Quebec. A proposed labelling law (requiring food containing GM ingredients to be labelled as such) was overturned by a US ISDS. British farmers will be up in arms if they can't grow GM crops, and they can't differentiate their crops from US GM ones.
Johnson lies. Johnson needs a US trade deal. Johnson will agree to whatever demands the US makes. Then he will lie about what he has agreed. Parliament will have no right to scrutinise or vote on the deal.
It will make no difference to the outcome of the election. But long-term perceptions of PM Johnson are now being framed. Being regarded as a liar who runs away from scrutiny will not help his leadership, especially when it turns out he cannot deliver on the promises he has made.
One thing that is striking about the vox pops that we have seen, such as from Wakefield on newsnight last night, or the Grimsby foodbank or even the BBCQT audience in Hull is how little like of the Tories there is. Once Brexit has happened, I cannot see there is much left.
Not that I think Labour's tax, welfare and nationalisation plans offer much more than a sticking plaster. The fundamental problems of those at the sharp end of globalisation are not really addressable by local politicians.
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
I find it hard to see how we could come to a mutually acceptable agreement with the US, simply because the things they most want out of a trade deal are the things that are more politically sensitive in the UK.
I can imagine a limited Services agreement coming before a wholesale goods agreement, focusing on financial services. That way the Anglosaxon financial system get to write the rules for the rest of the world for the next few decades.
Aside from the over-egged health sector fears, which bits do you think are most difficult to agree? Personally I don't think the agri stuff is that big a deal and can be delivered if there's a majority government in the UK.
There are no tariffs on services sold between the UK and the US.
Re agriculture, see Monsanto vs Province of Quebec. A proposed labelling law (requiring food containing GM ingredients to be labelled as such) was overturned by a US ISDS. British farmers will be up in arms if they can't grow GM crops, and they can't differentiate their crops from US GM ones.
No tariffs on services sure but how easily can financial services licenses (including insurance) be ported from the UK to US and back?
Agri Labelling: presumably that ruling does not prevent non-GMO from being labelled as such?
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
Doubt that very much. He's removed the internal opposition. If he wins a comfortable majority, then I think he's in charge for a long time.
He only scraped the tory MPs support in the summer leadership election.....a narrow win next week and i think he is a dead PM walking
No way: a win is a win. Now a narrow win combined with terrible poll figures in 3/4 years time, maybe. But if the Tories get a majority he will be safe for now.
A win is a win? Not according to Rees-Mogg when May won a vote of confidence with the 1922.
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
To be honest the dismal science died due to lack of populated. It's sad that it's disappeared in the land of Adam Smith though.
As I have access to more information now when sitting on a bus than I did when sitting in my town library as a child, I’m not really surprised. It is a perhaps a shame but also inevitable.
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
I fear that with wikipedia and online libraries, the future of bricks and mortar libraries is bleak.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
Doubt that very much. He's removed the internal opposition. If he wins a comfortable majority, then I think he's in charge for a long time.
He only scraped the tory MPs support in the summer leadership election.....a narrow win next week and i think he is a dead PM walking
No way: a win is a win. Now a narrow win combined with terrible poll figures in 3/4 years time, maybe. But if the Tories get a majority he will be safe for now.
A win is a win? Not according to Rees-Mogg when May won a vote of confidence with the 1922.
May could not deliver a majority for the party. If Johnson wins with a majority on Thursday (be it 10 or 50), his leadership is secure for now.
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
They’ll make excellent employees for the Student Loan Company though.
For reference the amount of Mercury that you receive in a vaccine is far less, and of a vastly less toxic compound, than you would get from eating a portion of tuna.
Also, of course you can have vaccines without Mercury in them, they just have a vastly shorter shelf life and are less stable meaning they can go off and be ineffective or even harmful.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Which could, of course, turn out to be masterful.
You can’t hide forever. Is he going to run away from trade summits?
The context of this remark was the campaign. I am on the record as saying he should have done the interview. And you are right - running away is not a good quality in a leader.
And yet you want a majority for this man at such a critical moment.
I want a Tory majority, not a majority for 'this man'. I do not get to chose a Tory majority with another leader at this point. Or is that too subtle a distinction?
Your vote will be presented as a personal vindication and endorsement of Boris and his promises.
Tory posters whistling through their teeth this evening, to keep their spirits up. It must be very depressing for them to have to recognise that their leader is a liar, a cheat, a coward and an incompetent buffoon. And he has surrounded himself with more of the same.
Yes lots of early panic on here I see, the buffoon is scared to have a real interview and get pulled up on his lies rather than bumbling and lying to various patsies..
Johnson and the tories may yet go on to win. I simply don't know. I can't read this election, for the first time since 1992. (I bet, and won, successfully on 2015 and the Referendum.) I do know the mood is not one of landslide. And I do know there is visceral hatred for both main leaders.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
How many of those 800 were closed by Labour-run local authorities? Come back when you have an answer....
How many of those labour councils are up North and so have little money beyond the amount required to pay for legally required social care?
Come back when you've worked out the impact of Osbourne removing the transfers that ensured Northern councils were compensated for a council tax bands being set at a single national level to avoid embarrassment back in the 90s..
Edit to add as it's relevant and completely embarrassing (for it was a Conservative Council) - Northamptonshire County Council.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
This is one of the reasons that I am less unhappy about voting for him than I would be about voting in a way that might end up with Corbyn as PM. We know that the Tory party can and will get rid of underperforming PMs. We also know that the PLP has tried and failed to get rid of Corbyn.
Sure, though I do think that the experience of electing leaders via partywide ballots is one with a track record of success. I mean that not just for Tories, but also for Labour and Lib Dems.
It's the system that gave us Tony Blair and David Cameron.
But also John Prescott, Iain Duncan Smith, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, Boris Johnson, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell, Jo Swinson. Or to widen it, Leanne Wood.
Not sold on this idea of its success...
It is the fact they go from school to University, bit of work as a gopher in the party and then shoehorned into safe seats, no experience of life and just moronic sheep. They have little understanding of reality, business , etc.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, the demographic trends do mean that the number of over 65's will keep increasing, and whether the money to support those aging boomers comes from taxes, or private financial instruments, ultimately it is the working population that is supporting them. That will be an increasing strain, as we see in the French protests.
Not sure if you have seen this interesting piece on US property and boomers. I wonder how similar things are here.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, the demographic trends do mean that the number of over 65's will keep increasing, and whether the money to support those aging boomers comes from taxes, or private financial instruments, ultimately it is the working population that is supporting them. That will be an increasing strain, as we see in the French protests.
Not sure if you have seen this interesting piece on US property and boomers. I wonder how similar things are here.
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
We shouldn't do a trade deal with the US. Just bury it in red tape. The situation currently is favourable. If they slap massive tariffs on our whiskies, reluctantly we should slap it right back on bourbon. Why do you 'slap' tariffs on things?
I find it hard to see how we could come to a mutually acceptable agreement with the US, simply because the things they most want out of a trade deal are the things that are more politically sensitive in the UK.
I don’t think the US-UK will achieve a full FTA. But, they will agree something bilaterally instead (a long way short of a full FTA) that doesn’t mean very much, and flap that about in front of the cameras instead.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, the demographic trends do mean that the number of over 65's will keep increasing, and whether the money to support those aging boomers comes from taxes, or private financial instruments, ultimately it is the working population that is supporting them. That will be an increasing strain, as we see in the French protests.
Not sure if you have seen this interesting piece on US property and boomers. I wonder how similar things are here.
That's already happening in retirement locations in the UK. Someone I know has great stories about Scarborough where there is a 3+ year supply of houses when you compare what is available to what has been sold.
If the Tories win between 310 and 322 seats there'll probably be another election with 12 months.
Surely this is a closer: if you are having second thoughts or don't vote Tory in sufficient numbers we will make you do it again! Would certainly get the Brenda vote.
No tariffs on services sure but how easily can financial services licenses (including insurance) be ported from the UK to US and back?
Agri Labelling: presumably that ruling does not prevent non-GMO from being labelled as such?
Fair point. When I was at Arete Research, to cover US stocks you needed to have a US Securities License, and we had an internal person with one for that reason.
Re insurance: given that in the US a license to sell insurance in Arizona doesn't carry through to New Mexico, I don't think that's a great comparison!
Re agri-labelling - sure, it doesn't. But personally I take umbrage at the idea that a country can't choose to label products as it likes. And most importantly, to get a US-UK FTA through parliament requires the support of MPs in farming constituencies.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
This is one of the reasons that I am less unhappy about voting for him than I would be about voting in a way that might end up with Corbyn as PM. We know that the Tory party can and will get rid of underperforming PMs. We also know that the PLP has tried and failed to get rid of Corbyn.
Sure, though I do think that the experience of electing leaders via partywide ballots is one with a track record of success. I mean that not just for Tories, but also for Labour and Lib Dems.
It's the system that gave us Tony Blair and David Cameron.
But also John Prescott, Iain Duncan Smith, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, Boris Johnson, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell, Jo Swinson. Or to widen it, Leanne Wood.
Not sold on this idea of its success...
It is the fact they go from school to University, bit of work as a gopher in the party and then shoehorned into safe seats, no experience of life and just moronic sheep. They have little understanding of reality, business , etc.
In fairness, that is not true of Prescott, Campbell or arguably Johnson.
So that’s clearly not the only reason we have rubbish leaders.
Johnson and the tories may yet go on to win. I simply don't know. I can't read this election, for the first time since 1992. (I bet, and won, successfully on 2015 and the Referendum.) I do know the mood is not one of landslide. And I do know there is visceral hatred for both main leaders.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
I did say I wasn't going to comment on this thread, but its worth pointing out the unpopularity/ absolute loathing of Corbyn, far outweighs anything of that ilk for Boris.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
The committed will still go out and vote. The impossible question is who will those committed be - if the tories are 10 points clear it may well be Labour voters,
On second thoughts having written that it's going to impact both parties equally.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
On the 1992 BBC election show Professor Anthony King of Essex University said it was a myth that bad weather affected turnout. Whether that's still true today I don't know.
Sticking my neck out forecast for the day: the Liberal Democrats will end up with 14+% of the vote. They will also increase their seats 50% or so from the 12 they got in 2017, and maybe a little more.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
This is one of the reasons that I am less unhappy about voting for him than I would be about voting in a way that might end up with Corbyn as PM. We know that the Tory party can and will get rid of underperforming PMs. We also know that the PLP has tried and failed to get rid of Corbyn.
Sure, though I do think that the experience of electing leaders via partywide ballots is one with a track record of success. I mean that not just for Tories, but also for Labour and Lib Dems.
It's the system that gave us Tony Blair and David Cameron.
But also John Prescott, Iain Duncan Smith, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, Boris Johnson, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell, Jo Swinson. Or to widen it, Leanne Wood.
Not sold on this idea of its success...
It is the fact they go from school to University, bit of work as a gopher in the party and then shoehorned into safe seats, no experience of life and just moronic sheep. They have little understanding of reality, business , etc.
In fairness, that is not true of Prescott, Campbell or arguably Johnson.
So that’s clearly not the only reason we have rubbish leaders.
It's because as I've said multiple times since Social media and 24 hour news arrived who wants to be an MP.
I suspect if we look back the calibre of MPs has a clear dividing line which corresponds to those changes.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with larg then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically?
Admittedly that is probably more expensive for the Government than immigration.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
On the 1992 BBC election show Professor Anthony King of Essex University said it was a myth that bad weather affected turnout. Whether that's still true today I don't know.
On a cold dark December day? I'm not so sure he's right. He has nothing by which to test his theory. This is untried and untested territory which, if nothing else did, would make me edgy as a tory.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
The committed will still go out and vote. The impossible question is who will those committed be - if the tories are 10 points clear it may well be Labour voters,
On second thoughts having written that it's going to impact both parties equally.
One theory is that the wobbly Labour leavers won't go out and vote tory. But I've no idea if that's correct.
I was really worried (as a non-tory) a few days back when things looked as if they might be severe, for reasons I shall mention next week.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
I fear that with wikipedia and online libraries, the future of bricks and mortar libraries is bleak.
We need state subsidies for encyclopedia salesmen....
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Compare and contrast with France.
And then look at school gates. The parents with a lot of children don't work - those people that do work cannot afford to have more than 1 or 2 children as child care costs are an absolute killer.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
That's already happening in retirement locations in the UK. Someone I know has great stories about Scarborough where there is a 3+ year supply of houses when you compare what is available to what has been sold.
Yes, I do wonder how much of the housing capital in Britain is illusory, particularly in parts of the country with stagnant or declining population.
On the other hand, the ending of British pensioners retiring to the Costas may bring more capital, though not a lot of income, into British coastal towns.
On this note, I was chatting the other week to my Brexiteer parents, it seems that 2 of their friends are struggling to sell. One has a flat in Malaga and the other a French cottage. No buyers are interested in either it seems, and both markets are flooded. They couldn't understand why.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, although to be fair the Government has got a much firmer grasp of pensions. The retirement age has sensibly increased, unlike in France, good private pensions are now becoming mainstream for all and I doubt the triple lock will last more than a few years either too.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Compare and contrast with France.
And then look at school gates. The parents with a lot of children don't work - those people that do work cannot afford to have more than 1 or 2 children as child care costs are an absolute killer.
As I said, look at France.
There every family member comes with their own tax free allowance and they stack. Higher earners often save money by having kids.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Johnson and the tories may yet go on to win. I simply don't know. I can't read this election, for the first time since 1992. (I bet, and won, successfully on 2015 and the Referendum.) I do know the mood is not one of landslide. And I do know there is visceral hatred for both main leaders.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
I did say I wasn't going to comment on this thread, but its worth pointing out the unpopularity/ absolute loathing of Corbyn, far outweighs anything of that ilk for Boris.
Not so sure. I know people who are coming out with stuff about Johnson that has astonished me for its visceral hatred and bile.
Tell it not in Gath, but a lot of people aren't as vexed about the antisemitism as they probably should be. Maybe it's factored in. I think they're more concerned about the terrorism love-ins.
In terms of the campaign, Corbyn's standing has improved compared to Johnson's but then he started from an incredibly low base.
Something I'm also really conscious of is that pollsters seem to be missing key demographics: ethnic minorities (who are breaking heavily for Labour) and young people (ditto). I also think pollsters are subject to false memory recall. There's a lot of supposed Labour leavers who didn't actually vote Labour at all ...
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The .
The
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Compare and contrast with France.
And then look at school gates. The parents with a lot of children don't work - those people that do work cannot afford to have more than 1 or 2 children as child care costs are an absolute killer.
As I said, look at France.
There every family member comes with their own tax free allowance and they stack. Higher earners often save money by having kids.
How do France’s demographic problems compare to our own?
Johnson and the tories may yet go on to win. I simply don't know. I can't read this election, for the first time since 1992. (I bet, and won, successfully on 2015 and the Referendum.) I do know the mood is not one of landslide. And I do know there is visceral hatred for both main leaders.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
I did say I wasn't going to comment on this thread, but its worth pointing out the unpopularity/ absolute loathing of Corbyn, far outweighs anything of that ilk for Boris.
Not so sure. I know people who are coming out with stuff about Johnson that has astonished me for its visceral hatred and bile.
Tell it not in Gath, but a lot of people aren't as vexed about the antisemitism as they probably should be. Maybe it's factored in. I think they're more concerned about the terrorism love-ins.
In terms of the campaign, Corbyn's standing has improved compared to Johnson's but then he started from an incredibly low base.
Something I'm also really conscious of is that pollsters seem to be missing key demographics: ethnic minorities (who are breaking heavily for Labour) and young people (ditto). I also think pollsters are subject to false memory recall. There's a lot of supposed Labour leavers who didn't actually vote Labour at all ...
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
That's already happening in retirement locations in the UK. Someone I know has great stories about Scarborough where there is a 3+ year supply of houses when you compare what is available to what has been sold.
Yes, I do wonder how much of the housing capital in Britain is illusory, particularly in parts of the country with stagnant or declining population.
On the other hand, the ending of British pensioners retiring to the Costas may bring more capital, though not a lot of income, into British coastal towns.
On this note, I was chatting the other week to my Brexiteer parents, it seems that 2 of their friends are struggling to sell. One has a flat in Malaga and the other a French cottage. No buyers are interested in either it seems, and both markets are flooded. They couldn't understand why.
Tory posters whistling through their teeth this evening, to keep their spirits up. It must be very depressing for them to have to recognise that their leader is a liar, a cheat, a coward and an incompetent buffoon. And he has surrounded himself with more of the same.
You mean like that LD head of Press you had to suspend?
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
This is one of the reasons that I am less unhappy about voting for him than I would be about voting in a way that might end up with Corbyn as PM. We know that the Tory party can and will get rid of underperforming PMs. We also know that the PLP has tried and failed to get rid of Corbyn.
Sure, though I do think that the experience of electing leaders via partywide ballots is one with a track record of success. I mean that not just for Tories, but also for Labour and Lib Dems.
It's the system that gave us Tony Blair and David Cameron.
But also John Prescott, Iain Duncan Smith, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, Boris Johnson, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell, Jo Swinson. Or to widen it, Leanne Wood.
Not sold on this idea of its success...
It is the fact they go from school to University, bit of work as a gopher in the party and then shoehorned into safe seats, no experience of life and just moronic sheep. They have little understanding of reality, business , etc.
Indeed.
Same cannot be levelled at any SNP MP or MSP. Most have fought, and lost, lots of elections before getting into parliament. How many did Sturgeon lose before getting elected? Was it seven? That builds resilience, and character.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
On the 1992 BBC election show Professor Anthony King of Essex University said it was a myth that bad weather affected turnout. Whether that's still true today I don't know.
On a cold dark December day? I'm not so sure he's right. He has nothing by which to test his theory. This is untried and untested territory which, if nothing else did, would make me edgy as a tory.
(Please don't cite the one a century ago!)
Cold was cold, and wet was wet, a century ago. On the other hand, cars, street lights, efficient and affordable cold and wet weather clothing and postal voting have all taken the edge of them.
And do you have a bet on turnout, or a thesis about differential turnout in bad weather? If neither why does it matter?
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
They’ll make excellent employees for the Student Loan Company though.
You Tory boys would prefer the Tories in milking the students of £40K at payday loan interest rates, ensuring the majority of ordinary people had no hope of university. There are none so blind as those that cannot see.
I don't mean this to sound ungracious, but I have a life outside. I often go hours and days without looking in. At the end of the day, politics will come and go. Johnson will one day be gone. So will Corbyn. The world will turn regardless of the result on Dec 13th. Which happens to be the morning I'm flying to somewhere rather lovely for a long vacation.
Quite a few, mainly but not exclusively, right-wing men on here just repeat their own white noise without listening to alternative perspectives or even considering the possibility they could be wrong.
It will get back to normal after the election. Debate on here is often to a very high standard.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
The way to judge Boris as a campaigner is to look at the result. Any working majority upwards will say he is a good campaigner.
Johnson and the tories may yet go on to win. I simply don't know. I can't read this election, for the first time since 1992. (I bet, and won, successfully on 2015 and the Referendum.) I do know the mood is not one of landslide. And I do know there is visceral hatred for both main leaders.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
There are several elections going on this year, not one.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
The committed will still go out and vote. The impossible question is who will those committed be - if the tories are 10 points clear it may well be Labour voters,
On second thoughts having written that it's going to impact both parties equally.
One theory is that the wobbly Labour leavers won't go out and vote tory. But I've no idea if that's correct.
I was really worried (as a non-tory) a few days back when things looked as if they might be severe, for reasons I shall mention next week.
I think this will be a low turnout election (and that probably favours the Tories), not so much the weather as the lack of enthusiasm, poor choices available and polling fatigue after a few too many elections/referendums over the last 5 years.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The .
The
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Compare and contrast with France.
And then look at school gates. The parents with a lot of children don't work - those people that do work cannot afford to have more than 1 or 2 children as child care costs are an absolute killer.
As I said, look at France.
There every family member comes with their own tax free allowance and they stack. Higher earners often save money by having kids.
How do France’s demographic problems compare to our own?
How do the social class figures of those demographics compare?
Edit to add I know the French demographic figures aren't great but the second figure is equally interesting especially when you compare to my school gate comment above.
Your meteorological update. Absolutely foul weather for Thursday. Heavy rain, gales, bitterly cold with sleet in the south, snow especially on northern hills.
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
The committed will still go out and vote. The impossible question is who will those committed be - if the tories are 10 points clear it may well be Labour voters,
On second thoughts having written that it's going to impact both parties equally.
One theory is that the wobbly Labour leavers won't go out and vote tory. But I've no idea if that's correct.
I was really worried (as a non-tory) a few days back when things looked as if they might be severe, for reasons I shall mention next week.
I think this will be a low turnout election (and that probably favours the Tories), not so much the weather as the lack of enthusiasm, poor choices available and polling fatigue after a few too many elections/referendums over the last 5 years.
Agreed
But I also think foul weather will deter undecideds.
Living standards should be increasing slowly because the economic growth rate is currently about 1.2% p.a. and the population growth rate is about 0.5% p.a.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Not nearly as silly as the fad for ageing boomers to wear cargo shorts and sandals all year round.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
The Neill intervention was amusing but was as much about his own reputation than the PM's. Johnson is on TV tonight and will I assume deflect questions about not answering questions by pointing out that he is answering questions on TV right now...
It won't make a difference. I really do now think that Labour are going to collapse on a large scale in so-called heartland seats across the North and Midlands as they collapsed in Scotland. Across the border the collapse handed almost all of the seats to the SNP. In the Midlands and NE the beneficiaries are likely to be the Tories.
My expectation from the final week? An avalanche of tactical voting. We won't see a national poll showing Labour making ground back because they aren't. So the existing push for tactical voting will become frenetic - "park your party views and vote to stop Johnson" is already the message and it will get loud. That bins UNS and as in other elections we'll see all kinds of entertaining results.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
We rarely agree but I concur here. Last month in Spain although the left got the most seats overall the biggest gainer was the far right Vox party and it is still unclear that we'll avoid more elections. Where I differ is I see the cause being the failure of establishment parties to bring the people with them. Look at the absurdities of the LD focus on gender as a case in point. Batshit crazy for most ordinary folk - and screams contempt for them.
That's amateur stuff. The SNP have made sure that economics is not available to higher level in the vast majority of state Schools now. Now that's what you call long term planning.
I fear that with wikipedia and online libraries, the future of bricks and mortar libraries is bleak.
We need state subsidies for encyclopedia salesmen....
You or at least I would only go to a library for access to a specialist collection. Even the bulk of History Source Books - County Record Series for instance are often sort of available on line although the scanning is incredibly bad. For Parish Registers then you would use the IGI on line and then go to a library or record office to confirm with the approved transcript or the original - a lot of researchers skip that bit even.
If I am searching for 17th century Grocer Miles Borrett then I can use the online sources to find what I can find, then order photographs of the wills etc. It is only at the end of the research process that I would need to physically go to a record office or library. And sorry, if the source was more than a half day away then I am going to use a researcher to do that.
Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson is a one trick pony. No bread, have oven ready Brexit Besides being a womaniser, a backstabber and a pathological liar. No problem Tories, you all know that Bjo is a douche bag. But he is 'our' douche bag, so it's ok,
Inserting made-up middle names into someone’s name to highlight their Turkish heritage is pretty standard technique used by knuckle dragging racists.
I think most/all here were critical of the alt-right when they emphasised the “Hussein” in Barack Obama name even though it was actually true...
There's also danger in this for Labour. Less engaged who did not know about the Neil interviews find this interesting and go and watch the Corbyn one to see how he did :-o
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Someone moved your slippers grandad?!
You don’t agree?
I could use some new slippers for Christmas, actually.
Comments
Aside from the over-egged health sector fears, which bits do you think are most difficult to agree? Personally I don't think the agri stuff is that big a deal and can be delivered if there's a majority government in the UK.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Re agriculture, see Monsanto vs Province of Quebec. A proposed labelling law (requiring food containing GM ingredients to be labelled as such) was overturned by a US ISDS. British farmers will be up in arms if they can't grow GM crops, and they can't differentiate their crops from US GM ones.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/dec/06/britain-has-closed-almost-800-libraries-since-2010-figures-show
Not that I think Labour's tax, welfare and nationalisation plans offer much more than a sticking plaster. The fundamental problems of those at the sharp end of globalisation are not really addressable by local politicians.
Agri Labelling: presumably that ruling does not prevent non-GMO from being labelled as such?
It's the difference between SCons being on 8 seats and being on 3 seats.
Also, of course you can have vaccines without Mercury in them, they just have a vastly shorter shelf life and are less stable meaning they can go off and be ineffective or even harmful.
The only other thing I also know for sure is that the Conservatives are repeating exactly the same mistakes as 2017.
If they come unstuck, Johnson's ducking and weaving will be central to the post-mortem.
p.s. And Jo Swinson has won a lot of friends with her courage.
Come back when you've worked out the impact of Osbourne removing the transfers that ensured Northern councils were compensated for a council tax bands being set at a single national level to avoid embarrassment back in the 90s..
Edit to add as it's relevant and completely embarrassing (for it was a Conservative Council) - Northamptonshire County Council.
Not sure if you have seen this interesting piece on US property and boomers. I wonder how similar things are here.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1198107683787870208?s=19
Can't for the life of me see how's that supposed to aid turnout.
It's the worst outcome in some ways: neither main party would have enough to form a government.
If it led to Corbyn's retirement then Labour would come on very strongly next time.
Re insurance: given that in the US a license to sell insurance in Arizona doesn't carry through to New Mexico, I don't think that's a great comparison!
Re agri-labelling - sure, it doesn't. But personally I take umbrage at the idea that a country can't choose to label products as it likes. And most importantly, to get a US-UK FTA through parliament requires the support of MPs in farming constituencies.
So that’s clearly not the only reason we have rubbish leaders.
On second thoughts having written that it's going to impact both parties equally.
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
I suspect if we look back the calibre of MPs has a clear dividing line which corresponds to those changes.
Admittedly that is probably more expensive for the Government than immigration.
(Please don't cite the one a century ago!)
Compare and contrast with France.
I was really worried (as a non-tory) a few days back when things looked as if they might be severe, for reasons I shall mention next week.
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
On the other hand, the ending of British pensioners retiring to the Costas may bring more capital, though not a lot of income, into British coastal towns.
On this note, I was chatting the other week to my Brexiteer parents, it seems that 2 of their friends are struggling to sell. One has a flat in Malaga and the other a French cottage. No buyers are interested in either it seems, and both markets are flooded. They couldn't understand why.
The NHS is a very different matter.
There every family member comes with their own tax free allowance and they stack. Higher earners often save money by having kids.
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Tell it not in Gath, but a lot of people aren't as vexed about the antisemitism as they probably should be. Maybe it's factored in. I think they're more concerned about the terrorism love-ins.
In terms of the campaign, Corbyn's standing has improved compared to Johnson's but then he started from an incredibly low base.
Something I'm also really conscious of is that pollsters seem to be missing key demographics: ethnic minorities (who are breaking heavily for Labour) and young people (ditto). I also think pollsters are subject to false memory recall. There's a lot of supposed Labour leavers who didn't actually vote Labour at all ...
Insurance: yes you’re right of course rcs. A tricky industry you’ve chosen to disrupt there!
Same cannot be levelled at any SNP MP or MSP. Most have fought, and lost, lots of elections before getting into parliament. How many did Sturgeon lose before getting elected? Was it seven? That builds resilience, and character.
And do you have a bet on turnout, or a thesis about differential turnout in bad weather? If neither why does it matter?
Quite a few, mainly but not exclusively, right-wing men on here just repeat their own white noise without listening to alternative perspectives or even considering the possibility they could be wrong.
It will get back to normal after the election. Debate on here is often to a very high standard.
London is definitely different to the rest.
Unite are really preaching to the choir in central Newcastle
Edit to add I know the French demographic figures aren't great but the second figure is equally interesting especially when you compare to my school gate comment above.
Quite a pull ...
But I also think foul weather will deter undecideds.
Not everyone is a pb. fanatic
Fox Jr sports a goatee...
It won't make a difference. I really do now think that Labour are going to collapse on a large scale in so-called heartland seats across the North and Midlands as they collapsed in Scotland. Across the border the collapse handed almost all of the seats to the SNP. In the Midlands and NE the beneficiaries are likely to be the Tories.
My expectation from the final week? An avalanche of tactical voting. We won't see a national poll showing Labour making ground back because they aren't. So the existing push for tactical voting will become frenetic - "park your party views and vote to stop Johnson" is already the message and it will get loud. That bins UNS and as in other elections we'll see all kinds of entertaining results.
Labour sub 200 seats.
If I am searching for 17th century Grocer Miles Borrett then I can use the online sources to find what I can find, then order photographs of the wills etc. It is only at the end of the research process that I would need to physically go to a record office or library. And sorry, if the source was more than a half day away then I am going to use a researcher to do that.
I think most/all here were critical of the alt-right when they emphasised the “Hussein” in Barack Obama name even though it was actually true...
I could use some new slippers for Christmas, actually.