His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, although to be fair the Government has got a much firmer grasp of pensions. The retirement age has sensibly increased, unlike in France, good private pensions are now becoming mainstream for all and I doubt the triple lock will last more than a few years either too.
The NHS is a very different matter.
You are dreaming on the "GOOD" private pensions part. People will contribute plenty and get a pittance at the end.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
Sorry Mike but that's just garbage. Ordinary people don't give a damn. After all 6 million people supposedly signed that stupid petition though half of them seem to have been abroad or signed it several times. It achieved absolutely zilch and chances are that by this time next week your party will have at best, gone backwards yet again!
That doesn’t make sense. The Tories ridicule alleged poor media performances by Corbyn, Swinson, Sturgeon, Abbott, Blackford, McDonnell etc etc etc ad infinitum; and allege that now their opponents are crippled.
You can’t have it both ways. Either the media matters, or it doesn’t.
That's true, although it means both sides are am switching sides on it mattering, along with the reversal of it mattering how many view it.
Labour should continue to push it hard. It's a non supporter calling Boris a coward and undermining every key policy pledge has made in a neat little 3 minute chunk. Better to share than an interview clip where Boris might have been ok, or required editing.
So it works, although the lameness of counting the many views remains.
@NorthCadboll To assert that other people don't give a damn is highly presumptuous. How do you know? Sounds like you are making up public opinion to suit your position
At least letters printed in my name haven't been sent to tens of thousands of houses making utterly preposterous claims. You should have asked your Liberal chums to send a written apology in all those seats where it was just a blatant lie and you hadn't given permission for them to risk your reputation as a serious political pollster.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, although to be fair the Government has got a much firmer grasp of pensions. The retirement age has sensibly increased, unlike in France, good private pensions are now becoming mainstream for all and I doubt the triple lock will last more than a few years either too.
The NHS is a very different matter.
You are dreaming on the "GOOD" private pensions part. People will contribute plenty and get a pittance at the end.
Well, they will if a left-wing government gets elected at some point in the next 20-30 years (almost a certainty, in my view) and nationalises them all.
That’s probably my biggest fear about my retirement, assuming the whole world/system doesn’t otherwise blow-up or we sell our souls to China.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
I don’t know but perhaps you could advise given that you see yourself as an expert on absolutely everything.
I'm trying to keep up, but I think so far this morning Foxy has predicted a Johnson win leading to:
1) The reunification of Ireland 2) Scottish Independence 3) A Tory Party leadership challenge, which Johnson loses.
Have I missed anything? Plague of toads?
I suspect the Northern Irish are going to be very annoyed when they discover they have to do the same paperwork the Irish will have to do for "imports" into the UK.
The impact of that is going to help reunification campaigns were it not for the fact the Irish can't afford reunification.
As for Scottish independence that will continue as before - any worsing of things upon leaving the EU will be jumped upon as a reason for independence. I do suspect that it will occur in the next 20 years but I can't see it in the next 5-10...
As for the last - nope Boris destroyed internal dissent back in October. It's going to be a long time before he is forced out even if he was leading a minority Government.
I doubt the Neil story makes any difference at all, as pointed out Boris is taking part in the final TV debate tonight anyway and most of those who have viewed the Neil video will I expect not be Tories
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
Where are you seeing these people up North saying they will vote for Boris?
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
Doubt that very much. He's removed the internal opposition. If he wins a comfortable majority, then I think he's in charge for a long time.
He only scraped the tory MPs support in the summer leadership election.....a narrow win next week and i think he is a dead PM walking
No way: a win is a win. Now a narrow win combined with terrible poll figures in 3/4 years time, maybe. But if the Tories get a majority he will be safe for now.
A win is a win? Not according to Rees-Mogg when May won a vote of confidence with the 1922.
That truly was a moment when his mask slipped and he was shown as a silly, ignorant little man, making up constitutional norms and pretending there was some grand principle because he hadn't gotten the outcome he wanted.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
They’ll have quite the shock when they can’t find Boris on their ballot papers but only the Conservatives.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
SNIP
Yes, although to be fair the Government has got a much firmer grasp of pensions. The retirement age has sensibly increased, unlike in France, good private pensions are now becoming mainstream for all and I doubt the triple lock will last more than a few years either too.
The NHS is a very different matter.
You are dreaming on the "GOOD" private pensions part. People will contribute plenty and get a pittance at the end.
Well, they will if a left-wing government gets elected at some point in the next 20-30 years (almost a certainty, in my view) and nationalises them all.
That’s probably my biggest fear about my retirement, assuming the whole world/system doesn’t otherwise blow-up or we sell our souls to China.
I admire your optimism , however if I remember correctly when we had left wing governments in they wrecked the pension system and did hee haw to help anyone , apart from setting in motion an increase in the state pension age entitlement. I remember when things were nationalised, they were crap , run by morons from the unions and nothing but strikes etc, does not instill me with confidence, especially given the calibre of the arseholes running the left wing parties nowadays.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
David Beckham, Adam Barlow on coronation street etc all now bearded
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The .
The
It means continued high levels of immigration.
Well, here's the thing: the older generation make up a growing proportion of the voters, and are beneficiaries of the system (as recipients of pensions and healthcare), and they don't want more immigrants. In fact, they want fewer.
It's not going to end well.
If demographics are the issue, and there are concerns over social change with large scale migration, then wouldn’t one solution be to encourage people to have more children domestically? By subsidising childcare and extending after hours school care, for example?
Admittedly that is much more expensive for the Government than increasing immigration but it could kill two birds with one stone.
Well yes, that should happen. But that's a long-term solution with short-term costs. Instead of doing that the Cameron-May-Johnson governments have removed many of the subsidies on having children, trimming child benefit and removing it from higher earners.
Compare and contrast with France.
And then look at school gates. The parents with a lot of children don't work - those people that do work cannot afford to have more than 1 or 2 children as child care costs are an absolute killer.
As I said, look at France.
There every family member comes with their own tax free allowance and they stack. Higher earners often save money by having kids.
How do France’s demographic problems compare to our own?
France has the highest number of children per woman in the western world
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The demographic drag is a huge issue here. An ever greater share of the output of workers is being used to support the old, and it's just going to get worse.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
The elderly care crisis means that more money, not less, is going to be needed to be allocated in the direction of older people. That might not be popular. We saw it cause problems for the Tories during the last election campaign.
The problem (ultimately) is that all of the needs of the retired have to come from those who are of working age.
I wrote a piece called "The Discontented" a while back. In it, I tracked the proportion of UK government spending that was on pensions and healthcare. It's gone up and up and up. There has been austerity in other sectors - because it's an inevitable consequence of the growth in demand for pensions and healthcare.
Yes, the demographic trends do mean that the number of over 65's will keep increasing, and whether the money to support those aging boomers comes from taxes, or private financial instruments, ultimately it is the working population that is supporting them. That will be an increasing strain, as we see in the French protests.
Not sure if you have seen this interesting piece on US property and boomers. I wonder how similar things are here.
This is nothing to what will follow, a Boris administration is going to be nasty. Enjoy the kat few days of relative calm.
Yes, it is going to be crap under the Tories, but I expect BoZo to be gone fairly quickly. How long before those 1922 Committee letters start again?
I don’t know but perhaps you could advise given that you see yourself as an expert on absolutely everything.
I'm trying to keep up, but I think so far this morning Foxy has predicted a Johnson win leading to:
1) The reunification of Ireland 2) Scottish Independence 3) A Tory Party leadership challenge, which Johnson loses.
Have I missed anything? Plague of toads?
I suspect the Northern Irish are going to be very annoyed when they discover they have to do the same paperwork the Irish will have to do for "imports" into the UK.
The impact of that is going to help reunification campaigns were it not for the fact the Irish can't afford reunification.
As for Scottish independence that will continue as before - any worsing of things upon leaving the EU will be jumped upon as a reason for independence. I do suspect that it will occur in the next 20 years but I can't see it in the next 5-10...
As for the last - nope Boris destroyed internal dissent back in October. It's going to be a long time before he is forced out even if he was leading a minority Government.
Given the support numbers in younger age groups it will be far less than 20 years, as the old brainwashed fearties pop their clogs it will all accelerate and given the help from the Tories probably not that long at all. However as you say it is only when now not if.
Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson is a one trick pony. No bread, have oven ready Brexit Besides being a womaniser, a backstabber and a pathological liar. No problem Tories, you all know that Bjo is a douche bag. But he is 'our' douche bag, so it's ok,
Inserting made-up middle names into someone’s name to highlight their Turkish heritage is pretty standard technique used by knuckle dragging racists.
I think most/all here were critical of the alt-right when they emphasised the “Hussein” in Barack Obama name even though it was actually true...
You might be right on the motivation but the inserted middle names are actually the name of Boris's famous (and murdered) great-grandfather. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Kemal
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Just cyclical trends I assume. Long periods of no beards being common now its beard time. I track it via football since young men emulate them - when I was at school virtually no footballers had beards and instead had that stupid hairstyle where the front was gelled up, now many have beards instead.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
Then they will enter the polling station and see the Conservative party name and logo, and no mention of Bozo anywhere....
Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.
Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
We rarely agree but I concur here. Last month in Spain although the left got the most seats overall the biggest gainer was the far right Vox party and it is still unclear that we'll avoid more elections. Where I differ is I see the cause being the failure of establishment parties to bring the people with them. Look at the absurdities of the LD focus on gender as a case in point. Batshit crazy for most ordinary folk - and screams contempt for them.
Establishment parties created the malaise by representing corporate power instead of the people they were elected to represent. Brexit would not be happening if so-called moderate politicians had not abandoned so many people.
The populists merely took advantage of the resentment and powerlessness that many people feel.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Maybe it's time for a return to bristling moustaches without beards. They've have been out of fashion for about 30 years.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Meanwhile the BBC website main story is Corbyn facing Johnson tonight in a debate. It might have gone viral but I reckon it’s predominently the same anti Tory people watching it again and again and slagging their load on the screen.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
They’ll have quite the shock when they can’t find Boris on their ballot papers but only the Conservatives.
I've wondered about this... when it comes to it in the booth, will the hovering pen end up being moved by the invisible hand away from CON?
It's another example of top politicians and advisers trying to be too clever by half.
Get in there, enjoy the tussle, be emphatic in trying to persuade the interviewer to your point, take the kicking where necessary and be done with it.
Thatcher would've been sat in that interviewee seat a day in advance, loving the opportunity to joust.
He looks like a coward now.
Mrs Thatcher's favourite interviewer was Radio 2 DJ Jimmy Young, though she did observe the constitutional proprieties of facing Robin Day during elections.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
They’ll have quite the shock when they can’t find Boris on their ballot papers but only the Conservatives.
I've wondered about this... when it comes to it in the booth, will the hovering pen end up being moved by the invisible hand away from CON?
I suspect there'll be some Big_G types out there, who have been mouthing off for months about how they are going to desert their normal party, then go out and vote Labour all the same.
The whole idea of privatising the NHS as part of US trade deals is clearly utterly rubbish. However, there are certain things that the US *could* do in trade deal as part of healthcare that might be an issue:
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
They won’t accept FDA ruling on safety. There are moves towards mutual recognition of standards (particularly in GMP manufacturing) but that’s purely a pragmatic matter
NICE isn’t protectionism - it’s QALY based pricing. The methodology is consistent regardless of nationality (and in any event it’s only a recommendation not a fixed price)
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
I feel seen.
Tories are habitually pogonophobic. Father Lenin, who taught us everything worth knowing, had one.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
It's another example of top politicians and advisers trying to be too clever by half.
Get in there, enjoy the tussle, be emphatic in trying to persuade the interviewer to your point, take the kicking where necessary and be done with it.
Thatcher would've been sat in that interviewee seat a day in advance, loving the opportunity to joust.
He looks like a coward now.
Mrs Thatcher's favourite interviewer was Radio 2 DJ Jimmy Young, though she did observe the constitutional proprieties of facing Robin Day during elections.
I reckon Thatcher's one on one interviews did more for her appeal than anything else. Those clipped, clear sentences; the steely glare; the genuine combative emotion. She looked like she would take your head off with her handbag.
I know she was a bit bonkers but that willingness to take to combat and have the intellectual bravery to make your case is hugely appealing.
I thought Blair was admirable in his defence of Iraq. Even when the evidence was caving in on him he rolled up his sleeves and made very passionate defences of his actions.
Whether for or against your politics I think the electorate like to see politicians fight for their cause.
Hiding and cautiously tiptoeing to the election, hoping to sneak past a shite opponent is not a strong look.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
They’ll have quite the shock when they can’t find Boris on their ballot papers but only the Conservatives.
They will also have the Brexit Party, the Wrexham poll had the Tories unchanged but enough Labour voters going Brexit Party for a Tory gain
FYI, there was a bit of talk last night of spreadsheets and estimated result announcement times.
I got a bit bored of work and wrote some code to scrape and collate info. I now have the ability to create spreadsheets of a whole range stats e.g. time, brexit, GE result, demographics in that seat.
My thinking was that we know if the Tories strategy is to win over Brexity seats currently held by Labour in the North and Midlands. In the same way as Brexit Referendum, those with the right spreadsheet got a lot of hints of the way it was going early on.
So for example I now have a spreadsheet of Labour held Brexity seats ordered by announcement time, which also contains last GE result, Leave % etc. I can easily add in things like demographics, as we know most of the Tory doing well in polls is based on flat cap Fred saying they will break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
If it is something people are interested in, let me know (and what info would be useful for your bingo card) and I will see what I can do / where to host them.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
It could motivate the anti Johnson vote, but they seem quite motivated already! Not sure there will be any real movement in the marginals. He’s done loads of debates and interviews and be preparing for a NATO conference, he can easily turn it back on Andrew Neil thinking he’s overly important and why does he not trust other journalists. I think he might take that line if it comes up tonight.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Meanwhile the BBC website main story is Corbyn facing Johnson tonight in a debate. It might have gone viral but I reckon it’s predominently the same anti Tory people watching it again and again and slagging their load on the screen.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
Also there are 10,000 Tory voters in NE Fife and an SNP maj of 2. I wouldn't put money on Stephen Gethins however well the SNP do elsewhere.
Sticking my neck out forecast for the day: the Liberal Democrats will end up with 14+% of the vote. They will also increase their seats 50% or so from the 12 they got in 2017, and maybe a little more.
Hmm, I've definitely gone in the opposite direction. Wouldn't be surprised to see them finish with fewer seats than they won in 2017. I don't think any of the defectors are going to win their new seats.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
If Swinson loses it would really top off what looks to be one of the most disappointing nights for the LDs in political history. I think it could have even bigger implications than the 2015 wipeout. At least they were expecting that, whereas they went into this campaign with high hopes and the potential to poll higher than the Labour Party.
There will be lots of soul searching if there is a poor-ish result for them.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Someone moved your slippers grandad?!
You don’t agree?
I could use some new slippers for Christmas, actually.
I am not a massive fan of beards, truth be told. Mind you, it'd probably take me a year to grow one so maybe I am just jealous. My wife got me some nice new M&S slippers for my birthday.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
Edinburgh West will stay LD
MRP had it LD 34%, SNP 34%, Con 20%, Lab 9%, Grn 4%.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
I think Boris is the last household name we have in the party, if we win the next five years need to be about raising the profile of our other MPs and finding stars for the next 20 years.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.
FYI, there was a bit of talk last night of spreadsheets and estimated result announcement times.
I got a bit bored of work and wrote some code to scrape and collate info. I now have the ability to create spreadsheets of a whole range stats e.g. time, brexit, GE result, demographics in that seat.
My thinking was that we know if the Tories strategy is to win over Brexity seats currently held by Labour in the North and Midlands. In the same way as Brexit Referendum, those with the right spreadsheet got a lot of hints of the way it was going early on.
So for example I now have a spreadsheet of Labour held Brexity seats ordered by announcement time, which also contains last GE result, Leave % etc. I can easily add in things like demographics, as we know most of the Tory doing well in polls is based on flat cap Fred saying they will break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
If it is something people are interested in, let me know (and what info would be useful for your bingo card) and I will see what I can do / where to host them.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.
I think if AN had done this after Swinson video it would have been worse. It would have been a day of coverage at least, where the BBC website is there is a debate tonight and oh by the way Boris is ducking this interview.
I think a lot of people will be, huh, so he is on the tellybox tonight. It isn't quite the same as Maybot who ran from everything.
And it also means the media tomorrow is all about the debate. I expect Boris to have a very rough time of it tonight though.
Boris is doing the TV debate tonight with Corbyn, and this makes the Neil video just read like sour grapes. No one will spend next Thursday thinking about how they would have voted Conservative if it wasn't for Johnson choosing to be grilled by some particular journalists and not by that other one. There's no May-like "avoiding the media" narrative.
I remember when people said Johnson was a master campaigner. So good in fact he’s run away from as much debating as possible
Like a lot of the contributors this morning you are pretending not the see that the second is an essential element of the first.
As long as his opponents confect a Boris hate-monster they fail to relate to either his strengths or weaknesses. Although intended to be negative most of the contributions in election leaflets of opponents concerning Boris will enhance his vote.
Just as an example - not getting at you - suppose your comment had been in an election leaflet. The voter reads it, already thinks Boris is OK, trying to get Brexit done, decent bloke. But CorrectHorseBattery has written this - he must be a bit of a shithouse, definitely won't be voting for him.
I think the LDs have made the double ham and eggs mistake in their criticism of Boris, Labour less so. ( They found the electorate did not respond to the ham and eggs they had in their leaflets about Boris and so they are now giving them double ham and eggs. )
The way to judge Boris as a campaigner is to look at the result. Any working majority upwards will say he is a good campaigner.
No, that is a sample of one, and it is a sample vs Corbyn. How would other Tory leaders have performed against Corbyn? My guesses of historic Tory leaders including a prediction for Johnson places him in the average group. A good campaigner should be in landslide territory (which is certainly possible this time around). Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath Hung Parliament - May, IDS
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
I think Boris is the last household name we have in the party, if we win the next five years need to be about raising the profile of our other MPs and finding stars for the next 20 years.
The recent Tory ‘leadership’ generation has been woeful. More successful electorally than the generation before, certainly, but that is probably because of the general ineptness of the opposition.
Cameron and Osborne were OK. May looked to be alright during her time as Home Secretary but turned out to be a damp squib in the end. The less said about BoJo the better.
Probably the only one I really rate is Gove, and he has the unfortunate problem of being generally loathed.
Boris is doing the ITV debate tonight with Corbyn, and this makes the Neil video just read like sour grapes. No one will spend next Thursday thinking about how they would have voted Conservative if it wasn't for Johnson choosing to be grilled by some particular journalists and not by that other one.
His contempt for the British Constitution and proper democratic scrutiny makes it deeply worrying that in one week’s time he’s likely to be PM with a large majority.
I don't think that we are unique in our crisis. The news from France last night was horrifying, and events in the USA, Bolivia, Chile etc show that it is not just in Europe that there is a crisis of democracy.
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
Officially there isn't stagnation in any European country. The economic growth rate (though very small) is higher than the population growth rate, since the populations of many European countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and Portugal is hardly growing at all, despite immigration. Real economic growth takes place of course if the economic growth rate is higher than the population growth rate, (assuming they're not both negative).
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.
How many postal voters are swing voters? Id imagine they are high turnout loyalists so doing things before or after they vote doesnt make much difference.
Off topic, why do so many young men sport such stupid beards these days?
They make them look like Charles Darwin and about 50 years old, when they’re clearly in their mid-late twenties. The best looking years of their lives. They look utterly ridiculous, and dangerously hipster like.
Where has this silly fad come from?
Just cyclical trends I assume. Long periods of no beards being common now its beard time. I track it via football since young men emulate them - when I was at school virtually no footballers had beards and instead had that stupid hairstyle where the front was gelled up, now many have beards instead.
One telling thing (maybe) is how many voters up north are saying they’ll vote for “Boris” this time, instead of Labour.
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
I think Boris is the last household name we have in the party, if we win the next five years need to be about raising the profile of our other MPs and finding stars for the next 20 years.
He is close to the only household name in politics. People have only heard of Corbyn and Swinson as they are leaders. Which is why Labour should make Jess Phillips their leader, modern politics is not currently about policies but personality.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Indeed lots of Americans and Jean Claude Juncker and his Euro chums looking at such stuff. An American distant cousin who thinks Boris walks on water pesters me every day with messages on Facebook about stuff he has been reading on our social media about the GE. Important point, not a single one of them has a vote next Thursday.
Today SKY is running a regular feature on how young members of South Asian families are no longer voting Labour because the head of the family instructed them to do so. In particular the Indian community is leaning heavily towards Boris.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
If Swinson loses it would really top off what looks to be one of the most disappointing nights for the LDs in political history. I think it could have even bigger implications than the 2015 wipeout. At least they were expecting that, whereas they went into this campaign with high hopes and the potential to poll higher than the Labour Party.
There will be lots of soul searching if there is a poor-ish result for them.
Some of their latest announcements regarding gender identity are putting off women who were intending to vote for them if the comments are anything to go by.
It's another example of top politicians and advisers trying to be too clever by half.
Get in there, enjoy the tussle, be emphatic in trying to persuade the interviewer to your point, take the kicking where necessary and be done with it.
Thatcher would've been sat in that interviewee seat a day in advance, loving the opportunity to joust.
He looks like a coward now.
Mrs Thatcher's favourite interviewer was Radio 2 DJ Jimmy Young, though she did observe the constitutional proprieties of facing Robin Day during elections.
I reckon Thatcher's one on one interviews did more for her appeal than anything else. Those clipped, clear sentences; the steely glare; the genuine combative emotion. She looked like she would take your head off with her handbag.
I know she was a bit bonkers but that willingness to take to combat and have the intellectual bravery to make your case is hugely appealing.
I thought Blair was admirable in his defence of Iraq. Even when the evidence was caving in on him he rolled up his sleeves and made very passionate defences of his actions.
Whether for or against your politics I think the electorate like to see politicians fight for their cause.
Hiding and cautiously tiptoeing to the election, hoping to sneak past a shite opponent is not a strong look.
Indeed so. We will find out this time next week if it was the correct thing to do.
However, I am reminded of the battle for Normandy, in the sense that if the sides clashed on anything like equal terms the Germans usually came out tops against the Allies, because some aspects of their equipment were better, and in many respects they were better at soldiering ( however odious the cause).
But of course in the grander scheme of things it didn’t matter. The Allies task was to win in an acceptable time, at an acceptable cost, not to prove they were “better” on average. They knew they had the numbers, and certain tactical advantages of their own, so they rarely had to meet the Germans on “equal” terms. So they didn’t, and they won.
As far as I can tell, these things generally don't make much difference, despite ramping on either side. I don't think that the Corbyn interview made much difference, nor is the anti-semitism reports now, and probably nor will this.
Occasionally some things get some traction, and this could be one, but I'm not sure how you identity those things in advance.
I'm currently undecided, and Boris is a major negative for me. This video, while entertaining will have no influence on my final decision.
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Indeed lots of Americans and Jean Claude Juncker and his Euro chums looking at such stuff. An American distant cousin who thinks Boris walks on water pesters me every day with messages on Facebook about stuff he has been reading on our social media about the GE. Important point, not a single one of them has a vote next Thursday.
Today SKY is running a regular feature on how young members of South Asian families are no longer voting Labour because the head of the family instructed them to do so. In particular the Indian community is leaning heavily towards Boris.
Labour's stance in Kashmir hasn't gone unnoticed, at least from talking to my Indian friends and family.
Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.
Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
You might be right, but I’m not aware of any evidence to support your theory.
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Interesting. I had assumed that SCons would be going backwards in Central Belt (being younger, more Remainy, etc) and consolidating in the areas where they broke through in 2017. Also that SLab decline would benefit SNP more than SCon - assumed Ruth had maxed out on unionist SLab voters in 2017.
Not long to find out!
Lots of conservative-sympathising Central Belt voters have been voting SLab and SLD for decades, purely pragmatically. Now that SLab are screwed and the SLDs are largely nowhere, they can safely, and with a clear conscience, vote for their real first choice. Add in that the untypical Tory Ruth is now history and social conservatives and Brexiteers can now cheerfully vote SCon.
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.
My sense is a Tory landslide is fading into the distance at the moment. Most likely result is a majority of between 20 and 60 but they could still fall short of 326 if the last week goes badly.
Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.
Edinburgh West will stay LD
MRP had it LD 34%, SNP 34%, Con 20%, Lab 9%, Grn 4%.
For a class debate, can anyone think of a more hard hitting ‘use’ of 3 billion pounds a year than approximately 40,000 more nurses?
Police officers, keep the public safe.
Which is the 20,000 offered back in October and is still less than the 20,659 that have left since austerity began in 2010.
Where are all these new public sector workers going to come from when we have low unemployment, demographics leading to more elderly and fewer working age combined with public sector workers in their fifties and sixties having gold plated pensions (relative to the private sector) backed by an asset boom so are more likely to retire early than ever. Has anyone considered immigration as an answer, there are lots of well educated people in the EU?
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.
What should be more worrying is that we are electing a PM with no backbone. What will he do if he cannot run away? Perhaps, say, in high level talks or discussions? Will he lie to them and then stab them in the back the next day á la DUP? What will that do for UK plc? He was a trainwreck as For.Sec., as PM he could be an National Emergency.
I think this will be a low turnout election (and that probably favours the Tories), not so much the weather as the lack of enthusiasm, poor choices available and polling fatigue after a few too many elections/referendums over the last 5 years.
If this nonsense about "too many elections" were true, 2017 turnout would have been lower than 2015. And the Euros in 2019 would have had lower turnouts than in 2014.
Both were higher. There's a lot more influencing voter turnout than the intellectual laziness of hobby gamblers appears capable of grasping.
I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)
Comments
Note: “Boris”, not the Conservatives.
I wonder if that helps a number of voters overcome their historical aversion to voting Conservative in a way they’d struggle to do, say, if it were Gove or Hunt.
Labour should continue to push it hard. It's a non supporter calling Boris a coward and undermining every key policy pledge has made in a neat little 3 minute chunk. Better to share than an interview clip where Boris might have been ok, or required editing.
So it works, although the lameness of counting the many views remains.
That’s probably my biggest fear about my retirement, assuming the whole world/system doesn’t otherwise blow-up or we sell our souls to China.
Stirling +5 sunny
Derry +6 dry
Aberystwyth +7 showers
Wolverhampton +5 sunny
The impact of that is going to help reunification campaigns were it not for the fact the Irish can't afford reunification.
As for Scottish independence that will continue as before - any worsing of things upon leaving the EU will be jumped upon as a reason for independence. I do suspect that it will occur in the next 20 years but I can't see it in the next 5-10...
As for the last - nope Boris destroyed internal dissent back in October. It's going to be a long time before he is forced out even if he was leading a minority Government.
It's another example of top politicians and advisers trying to be too clever by half.
Get in there, enjoy the tussle, be emphatic in trying to persuade the interviewer to your point, take the kicking where necessary and be done with it.
Thatcher would've been sat in that interviewee seat a day in advance, loving the opportunity to joust.
He looks like a coward now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Kemal
34 year old British woman who went into cardiac arrest for 6 hours revived without any brain damage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50681489
Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.
Not long to find out!
SCon 10/11
SNP 11/10
SLD 100/1
SLab 100/1
(Haven’t checked, but I think this means that SCon are now FAV in 9 seats (+1).)
The populists merely took advantage of the resentment and powerlessness that many people feel.
Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens
It might have gone viral but I reckon it’s predominently the same anti Tory people watching it again and again and slagging their load on the screen.
NICE isn’t protectionism - it’s QALY based pricing. The methodology is consistent regardless of nationality (and in any event it’s only a recommendation not a fixed price)
I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.
It's amazing how often these clever SPAD ruses backfire on the candidate.
I know she was a bit bonkers but that willingness to take to combat and have the intellectual bravery to make your case is hugely appealing.
I thought Blair was admirable in his defence of Iraq. Even when the evidence was caving in on him he rolled up his sleeves and made very passionate defences of his actions.
Whether for or against your politics I think the electorate like to see politicians fight for their cause.
Hiding and cautiously tiptoeing to the election, hoping to sneak past a shite opponent is not a strong look.
SCon 17/20
SNP 6/5
SLab 100/1
SLD 150/1
I got a bit bored of work and wrote some code to scrape and collate info. I now have the ability to create spreadsheets of a whole range stats e.g. time, brexit, GE result, demographics in that seat.
My thinking was that we know if the Tories strategy is to win over Brexity seats currently held by Labour in the North and Midlands. In the same way as Brexit Referendum, those with the right spreadsheet got a lot of hints of the way it was going early on.
So for example I now have a spreadsheet of Labour held Brexity seats ordered by announcement time, which also contains last GE result, Leave % etc. I can easily add in things like demographics, as we know most of the Tory doing well in polls is based on flat cap Fred saying they will break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
If it is something people are interested in, let me know (and what info would be useful for your bingo card) and I will see what I can do / where to host them.
😉
That said, I think it's impossible to know what the impact is.
There will be lots of soul searching if there is a poor-ish result for them.
My wife got me some nice new M&S slippers for my birthday.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
I think a lot of people will be, huh, so he is on the tellybox tonight. It isn't quite the same as Maybot who ran from everything.
And it also means the media tomorrow is all about the debate. I expect Boris to have a very rough time of it tonight though.
Landslides - Thatcher, Major, Hague, Cameron
Working Majorities - Johnson, Howard, Heath
Hung Parliament - May, IDS
Cameron and Osborne were OK. May looked to be alright during her time as Home Secretary but turned out to be a damp squib in the end. The less said about BoJo the better.
Probably the only one I really rate is Gove, and he has the unfortunate problem of being generally loathed.
Sheeple.
Today SKY is running a regular feature on how young members of South Asian families are no longer voting Labour because the head of the family instructed them to do so. In particular the Indian community is leaning heavily towards Boris.
For instance:
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224088619659264
However, I am reminded of the battle for Normandy, in the sense that if the sides clashed on anything like equal terms the Germans usually came out tops against the Allies, because some aspects of their equipment were better, and in many respects they were better at soldiering ( however odious the cause).
But of course in the grander scheme of things it didn’t matter. The Allies task was to win in an acceptable time, at an acceptable cost, not to prove they were “better” on average. They knew they had the numbers, and certain tactical advantages of their own, so they rarely had to meet the Germans on “equal” terms. So they didn’t, and they won.
Occasionally some things get some traction, and this could be one, but I'm not sure how you identity those things in advance.
I'm currently undecided, and Boris is a major negative for me. This video, while entertaining will have no influence on my final decision.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGKbfXqyTzg
Look out for lots of SCon second places in the Central Belt.
And there is now plenty of evidence that the SLab vote is fracturing in *all* directions: to the SNP, to SLD, to the Greens... AND to SCon! We cannot assume that the SNP will always be the main beneficiary of further SLab collapse.
Indeed my personal match bet is for the LDs to have a higher winning margin in Ed West than in East Dunbartonshire.
Has anyone considered immigration as an answer, there are lots of well educated people in the EU?
Both were higher. There's a lot more influencing voter turnout than the intellectual laziness of hobby gamblers appears capable of grasping.