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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil

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  • Andy_JS said:

    I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
    That makes sense, and I also expect the bulk of the increased SNP voteshare to be in seats where labour was strong in 2017 rather in tory seats. In the EU election the SNP got 1% more in Scotland than in 2017, but a slightly worse result in most tory seats (and even 5-6% less in Moray / Banff and Buchan).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited December 2019
    One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    It says in that that you can show someone else's postal vote so long as you have their permission, which surprises me. Seems like it would be easy to 'encourage' someone to say they gave permission if they are asked.
    Mr Ahmed, who is also a coordinator of the Kurdish Exile Centre in Plymouth, previously told Plymouth Live: "We have been very active campaigning over the last few weeks and one of my friends sent me that photo to say they had voted. "He gave me permission to post the picture he had sent to me."

    Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....

    Also, maybe I don't know enough about these things, but I would have thought a Kurd might be a bit hesitant about Jezza given Hamas are big supporters of Erdogans war on the Kurds.

    https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15049/hamas-support-erdogan-syria
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    What's a DVD?
    If you're not old enough to remember I can understand why the "V" looks ominous.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited December 2019

    What's a DVD?
    It's what replaced VHS. 😊
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:
    Very odd projections. The greens get 9 seats from 1% of the vote?!

    Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
  • kle4 said:
    Fear not, a few drops of whatever the PB Tories have been drinking in the Scottish water supply and we'll have learned to love BJ by 2021.
  • LDs still on 4?
    Stephen Gethins is a good lad but losing him for swapsies with E.Dunbartonshire might almost be worth it for the LOLs.
    I'd also enjoy Christine Jardine getting punted, but Swinson losing would be a great moment.

    The sense I'm getting from mates in NE Fife is that Stephen Gethins is really well-liked as a good constituency MP, so I do hope he holds off the (other) yellow peril. My friend's Dad is a straight Tory > SNP switch as he likes Stephen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited December 2019

    Fear not, a few drops of whatever the PB Tories have been drinking in the Scottish water supply and we'll have learned to love BJ by 2021.
    I'd hope for a third option really, no one should go down that route. At the least he might need more years for those drops to work!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    You obviously have a lot of spare time.
    I like film, and I don't sleep much! I catch the reviews show on the Sounds App, and the Film shows on catch up. Is it really so hard?

    Kermodes reviews on the BFI Player are very good too, and that is a great subscription service for someone like me who is bored by the trite stuff that comes out of Hollywood.

    There are some other very good film critics around. This one on Youtube is another of my favourites:

    https://youtu.be/0R7R0JHvvgo
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Andy_JS said:

    It's what replaced VHS. 😊
    This is going to move on to a discussion about acetate so I think it's bedtime.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    Byronic said:

    Very odd projections. The greens get 9 seats from 1% of the vote?!

    Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
    I think there will be, as a reaction to Brexit. Nothing else is as likely to fire up the Scottish vote. It is not just Brexit itself, but also the way that Scotland is clearly playing second fiddle to Westminster.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    kle4 said:
    SNP down on the 63 seats they got in 2016, again they would need the Greens for a majority.

    Scottish Tories unchanged on 31, LDs up 6 to 11 and Scottish Labour down 8 on the 24 they got last time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited December 2019
    Trump really is Orange:
    The Makeup Brand (And Shade) That Stains All Of Donald Trump's Shirts
    A new Washington Post report about Trump's practice of hiring undocumented immigrants reveals something else he wants covered up, too — his skin.


    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-makeup-brand_l_5de9729ee4b0913e6f8d6e7f
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    I wasn't aware of any such claim. Have I missed a trick?
    No. Simple honest question looking for a simple honest reply from PB brains trust, if Labour proposed tax rises are implemented it tax us back to which year of similar tax rates?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    Byronic said:

    Very odd projections. The greens get 9 seats from 1% of the vote?!

    Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
    That is only FPTP constituency voteshares not PR list
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Henrietta said:

    Exhibit 'B' (Boris Johnson, Daily Telegraph, 2002): "If Blair's so good at running the Congo, let him stay there" (2002):

    "Since he [Tony Blair] is in this candid mood, he might as well go on to say that we have one of the worst health services in Europe. To pluck a statistic at random: if you are a British woman with leukaemia, you have 21 per cent less chance of living another five years than a German woman with leukaemia. No one is suggesting that the problems of the NHS began in 1997; it is just that Labour does not seem to have any intention of solving them."

    "One of the reasons the Germans are healthier than us is that they are able to spend more on health, because roughly half their hospitals are independently funded. Is that a solution Blair is prepared to discuss? Or is Labour prepared to learn from France? There they stop the wasting of GPs' time by imposing a 25 per cent upfront charge - which is refundable later - on everyone who calls to see the doctor."

    So no examples of Johnson's "demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use" except the statement "There is no reason why we should pay for people to have tattoos removed from their bottoms"?

    I was rather hoping for some long forgotten policy statement rather than a couple of Johnson's polemics that he used to knock out for a living. Hey ho. 6 days to save the NHS and all that, eh?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    Andy_JS said:

    One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).

    The rural vote is older, so therefore both more Unionist and more Brexity, so therefore more Tory.

    I can see Scottish politics is increasingly realigning to Nationalist vs Unionist, and in most areas the only Unionist party is going to be SCON, and that makes up some of the lost Ruth Davidson vote. SLAB are doomed, and SLD are going to have to work very hard to maintain the efficiency of their vote.
  • Byronic said:

    Very odd projections. The greens get 9 seats from 1% of the vote?!

    Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
    I'm assuming the 1% would be for the constituency rather than the list vote.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681

    Oh god he retweets stuff from the likes of Evolve Politics. SAD. I know he is left leaning, but the cult really has sent people mental. I genuinely expected better from him.
    Rosen has been a habitue of the far left for a very, very long time !
  • Andy_JS said:

    One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).

    They do have a city (Stirling) in one of their seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    MattW said:

    Rosen has been a habitue of the far left for a very, very long time !
    I know he is a lefty. He used to do stuff with the Socialist Worker.

    But looking at this twitter feed, is total mental and detached from reality now. It is rammed full of all the usual Corbyn fake news sites / twitter accounts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    They do have a city (Stirling) in one of their seats.
    I should have written large urban areas rather than cities.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    Andy_JS said:

    It's what replaced VHS. 😊
    VHS has been replaced? Hah! I knew Betamax would win out in the end! Oh godsdammit... :(
  • viewcode said:

    VHS has been replaced? Hah! I knew Betamax would win out in the end! Oh godsdammit... :(
    A couple of weeks and Jezza might well be announced the nationalized British Betamax company....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    Labour is promising to base a network of small business advisers in Post Office branches if it wins next Thursday's general election. The party says the advisers would form part of a wider agency to help firms access advice and bid for government contracts.

    And it is pledging £250bn in loans for businesses over ten years, provided by a network of regional and national development banks.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50681311

    Putting aside the £250bn in loans, all the above isn't free either.

    I also presume you will only be able to bid for government contracts if you have the correct gender / BAME balance and the correct Eco-credentials.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    Foxy said:

    I like film, and I don't sleep much! I catch the reviews show on the Sounds App, and the Film shows on catch up. Is it really so hard?

    Kermodes reviews on the BFI Player are very good too, and that is a great subscription service for someone like me who is bored by the trite stuff that comes out of Hollywood.

    There are some other very good film critics around. This one on Youtube is another of my favourites:

    https://youtu.be/0R7R0JHvvgo
    I remember him! About two years ago the estate of Stanley Kubrick threatened to sue him to death, so he put out a little plea which I reposted here IIRC. Other good ones include:
    Every Frame a Painting (now defunct)
    , Lindsay Ellis, Chris Stuckmann, Jeremy Jahns, A Matter of Film (defunct?).
  • camel said:

    So no examples of Johnson's "demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use" except the statement "There is no reason why we should pay for people to have tattoos removed from their bottoms"?

    I was rather hoping for some long forgotten policy statement rather than a couple of Johnson's polemics that he used to knock out for a living. Hey ho. 6 days to save the NHS and all that, eh?
    Did you seriously think receiving a bill for a child's ambulance journey a few days later counts as "free at the point of use"? He advocates people having to pay for NHS services because then they will value them more.

    What's wrong with holding him to account for what he wrote at the Spectator and the Telegraph? He can after all say he has changed his mind, and voters can decide whether they trust him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:
    Is there going to be a spreadsheet with the crucial info like previous elections ?

  • Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....

    There are a lot of unanswered questions out there starting with "why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of" but somehow instagram have a business model
  • I think this nurses thing is playing the media and the opposition like the famous £350m per week, everybody's quibbling about 20,000 of them but repeating the 50,000 number in the process, and what voters who want more nurses are hearing is that they're going to get more nurses.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    egg said:

    She has the X Factor? 😶
    She's a Corbynista Ed Miliband - liked by activists because she's one of them, steeped in Labour and knows the party language, but is just a bit to weird in that political anorak way to break through with the wider electorate. A northern accent doesn't suddenly turn you into a woman of the people. Everyone also seems to forget quite how inexperienced the Corbynista dauphins are - which isn't to say they necessarily lack intellect, but she's been an MP two years, mostly doing uncritically spouting the party line or giving speeches to devotees. She's shown no sign of being willing or able (yet) to defuse a news bomb with some judiciously chosen patter rather than launching into "aren't Labour great" mode. Of the two top Corbynista women, Long-Bailey is the more competent and battle-hardened (which you'd expect given she's McDonnell's protege, not Corbyn's). Rayner meanwhile can do the backstory and heart better, and unlike the other two isn't quite so tied to the current leadership as to be unable to edge away from its more toxic legacies.

    Also worth noting that on a bad night Pidcock could be in trouble in North West Durham - it's unlikely she'd lose - but could get an Amber Ruddesque majority that hampers her running. I'd sell.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019

    I think this nurses thing is playing the media and the opposition like the famous £350m per week, everybody's quibbling about 20,000 of them but repeating the 50,000 number in the process, and what voters who want more nurses are hearing is that they're going to get more nurses.

    After the initial ructions about the number, I honestly haven't heard people mention it.

    Generally on the policy side of things, it all seems to have gone very flat. I would be surprised if people can remember much of the specifics of anything that is being promised by any party other than Brexit stance and general Labour are going to spend a lot / nationalize things like railways / free uni.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
    I would say result at things like previous GE, how the seat voted in Brexit referendum...

    I guess the big bit of info we want to try to establish as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. Are they managing to convert your Wakefield's of this world.

    If they are struggling, its curtains for their chances of a majority.

    I could probably pull all that information myself. I will see if I get time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I would say result at things like previous GE, how the seat voted in Brexit referendum...

    I guess the big bit of info we want to see as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. If they are struggling, its curtain for their chances of a majority.
    I could put that information into the expected declaration times spreadsheet. You could also put the YouGov MRP data into it and see how the results compare with the MRP. That would be a bit like comparing the referendum results with the expected result from the formula.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I could put that information into the expected declaration times spreadsheet. You could also put the YouGov MRP data into it and see how the results compare with the MRP. That would be a bit like comparing the referendum results with the expected result from the formula.
    I really should be doing work, but got my brain going now....firing up new Python project...
  • Labour is promising to base a network of small business advisers in Post Office branches if it wins next Thursday's general election. The party says the advisers would form part of a wider agency to help firms access advice and bid for government contracts.

    And it is pledging £250bn in loans for businesses over ten years, provided by a network of regional and national development banks.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50681311

    Putting aside the £250bn in loans, all the above isn't free either.

    I also presume you will only be able to bid for government contracts if you have the correct gender / BAME balance and the correct Eco-credentials.

    You are opposed to Labour embracing the private sector or do you worry about competition for Capita?

  • Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....

    To prove that you voted in accordance with the bribe/blackmail.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317


    Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....

    Because some people are fucking dumb.

    I have many relatives. One of them forced me to have WhatsApp on my phone so I could keep up with family matters. Fine. Then she keeps sending me pictures of her meals. Just her food on a plate. Gods it's annoying... :(
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031

    The Wrexham constituency poll tonight with conservatives at 44% labour at 29% is an eye opener especially as it is in the Airbus catchment area

    If true labour are going to have a very bad night on the 12th

    Won't be Airbus for long...
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    speedy2 said:



    Given the results of Tusk's EU presidency, I think Donald Tusk was one of the most spectacular mistakes of EU history.

    The problem of management of the EU is that governments appoint political failures and exiles for EU jobs, it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.

    Juncker for instance was the first Luxembourg PM to have lost re-election in 40 years, that's quite an achievement.

    In other news, right-wing politicians bugger things up: Juncker, Tusk, Barnier, Cameron, May, Johnson, Merkel...

    Tusk at least has some integrity, and experience of defending liberal democracy against the authoritarian/totalitarian abyss. He is way ahead of the shitheads in the UK.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I'm expecting Labour's final 'big offer' to appear over the weekend.

    Scrapping tuition fees and refunding those who have paid (with interest).

    All for a bargain eleventy bazillion quid.
  • SunnyJim said:

    I'm expecting Labour's final 'big offer' to appear over the weekend.

    Scrapping tuition fees and refunding those who have paid (with interest).

    All for a bargain eleventy bazillion quid.

    Cheap at half the price, which it will be when Boris announces it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    Given the results of Tusk's EU presidency, I think Donald Tusk was one of the most spectacular mistakes of EU history.

    The problem of management of the EU is that governments appoint political failures and exiles for EU jobs, it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.

    Juncker for instance was the first Luxembourg PM to have lost re-election in 40 years, that's quite an achievement.

    Aren't you mixing Tusk up with Juncker? Tusk was president of the European Council, Juncker the President of the European Commission.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2019
    If anybody is interested, I now have constituency data ordered by estimated declaration time showing Brexit Vote / GE2017 info. I will be revising this data to pick out Tory / Lab marginals with high Leave vote, so hopefully on the night we can find out ASAP if the Tories are really picking up Flat Cap Fred votes that they need for a majority.

    I can also add in the demographic data for each seat if people are interested.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    One positive of Boris winning a majority I suppose will be that Brexit's democratic mandate will be resolved.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    If anybody is interested, I now have constituency data ordered by estimated declaration time showing Brexit Vote / GE2017 info. I will be revising this data to pick out Tory / Lab marginals with high Leave vote, so hopefully on the night we can find out ASAP if the Tories are really picking up Flat Cap Fred votes that they need for a majority.

    I can also add in the demographic data for each seat if people are interested.

    Yes please
  • We will know things are going really "wonky" if any of these early declarations turn into recounts!
  • On thread, I don't think anyone outside the Guardian readership, the Westminster village and the membership of this site gives a damn whether Boris does the Andrew Neil interview or not. I was out and about last night among mostly non-Tory voters and no-one mentioned it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.

    The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.

    The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.

    Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
  • I'd also enjoy Christine Jardine getting punted, but Swinson losing would be a great moment.

    The sense I'm getting from mates in NE Fife is that Stephen Gethins is really well-liked as a good constituency MP, so I do hope he holds off the (other) yellow peril. My friend's Dad is a straight Tory > SNP switch as he likes Stephen.
    There is an outside chance that instead of 5 SLib seats by next Friday morning we could in fact be back to just Orkney and Shetland. Swinson losing would be fantastic. I know very few SCons who would think about voting SLib because in some crucial cases we would rather see the yellow peril take them back if it means we go into the runner-up slot for next time. In 2017 a SLib pal (President of their Constituency Assoc) said to me on the eve of poll he hoped the Tories wouldnt split the vote and let Ian Blackford hold on. After the election I turned the comment on him and pointed out it was the SLibs who prevented the SCons from turfing the Fat Laird out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Jonathan said:

    Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
    That is not for the BBC to decide - and certainly not in the middle of an election campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Mango said:

    Won't be Airbus for long...
    Another Lefty showing ignorance of reality again:

    "European planemaker Airbus wants to stay in the UK whatever the outcome of Brexit, as the country is “a very important pillar” for the company, new CEO Guillaume Faury said on Tuesday (21 May), amending negative comments made by his predecessor."

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Jonathan said:


    Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.

    Was it written in law that politicians had to bow to every demand from each and every broadcaster?

    It does need formalizing for future elections with my preference being a single interview with each of the main broadcasters.

    I'd get rid of the debates or at the very least get rid of the ridiculous braying audiences packed with activists who make the whole thing in to a pantomime.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    That is not for the BBC to decide - and certainly not in the middle of an election campaign.
    Or the Supreme Court? Boris simply does what he wants,
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited December 2019

    Not sure "Scots voters holding the key to Number 10" sits well with the Wrexham poll......
    Agreed.

    Is John Curtice inadvertently revealing that the next YG MRP is not pleasant reading for English Tories?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    That utter collapse of the Brexit Party into the Tories is quite a thing to behold!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    That utter collapse of the Brexit Party into the Tories is quite a thing to behold!
    Tories are now a wholly owned subsidiary of Brexit. All other policies have been forced to fit around it. If it fails to sort the problems of Grimsby there is going to be only one party to blame.
  • rkrkrk said:

    On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.

    The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.

    We need to get as far away from Presidential politics as possible and personally I would ban these so called debates which add nothing to the knowledge of the average voter. Time for politicians to get back on their soapboxes and spend more time on the streets and less in TV studios. Not a coincidence that John Major achieved the highest ever vote for the winning government party.
  • That utter collapse of the Brexit Party into the Tories is quite a thing to behold!
    SCons to go above 30% by Thursday? Polls typically underestimate them and overestimate the SNP.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited December 2019
    Foxy said:


    Tories are now a wholly owned subsidiary of Brexit. All other policies have been forced to fit around it. If it fails to sort the problems of Grimsby there is going to be only one party to blame.

    The election itself is shaped by Brexit so inevitably what would ordinarily be the grist of a campaign is drowned out to a degree.

    It doesn't mean that will be the case post election. I predict Brexit will fall off the radar for the vast majority of people once withdrawal is confirmed and there will be very little interest in the subject.

    The Tories will need to start making some headway in to the regional and inter-generational wealth disparities if they want a chance of winning in 2024.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    We need to get as far away from Presidential politics as possible and personally I would ban these so called debates which add nothing to the knowledge of the average voter. Time for politicians to get back on their soapboxes and spend more time on the streets and less in TV studios. Not a coincidence that John Major achieved the highest ever vote for the winning government party.
    Completely disagree. Voters do learn things from the debates, most of them don't follow politics as closely as those on this website. Plus they get to hear from the candidates directly. They reckon 6.7m watched the debates last time.

    Who are you to ban debates!?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I wonder if Ruth was still in the tent, how much affect that would have.
    Zero.

    The Conservative's appeal in Scotland is being The Unionist Party.

    The leader is irrelevant as long as the direction of travel is Scottish Unionist Party.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    That utter collapse of the Brexit Party into the Tories is quite a thing to behold!
    The standing down of BXP candidates in Con held seats basically meant the removal of the entire BXP voter base in Scotland.

    It's the difference between SCons being on 8 seats and being on 3 seats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    SunnyJim said:

    The election itself is shaped by Brexit so inevitably what would ordinarily be the grist of a campaign is drowned out to a degree.

    It doesn't mean that will be the case post election. I predict Brexit will fall off the radar for the vast majority of people once withdrawal is confirmed and there will be very little interest in the subject.

    The Tories will need to start making some headway in to the regional and inter-generational wealth disparities if they want a chance of winning in 2024.

    That middle bit is a keeper!

    How are they going to go about that last bit, as a party owned by the oldies?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    I think he should do it tbf but I'm sorry Andrew Neil isn't the only interviewer in the country.
    I like him but I wouldn’t go that far. Having a mix of interviewing styles is a good thing ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    TudorRose said:

    FPT
    Of course, Boris now knows the questions he will face. If he thinks he can prepare answers for them then my guess is he will do the interview on Wednesday. The TV/radio media won't be able to cover it on Thursday.


    I rather think that his knowing the questions he would be asked was the problem, not the solution.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    I suspect that is exactly what will happen.

    Tory councillors defending in May, be very afraid....
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    RobD said:

    Every time I read his name I think of that clip. Quite possibly worse than Truss.
    The only thing worse than a Truss is a full Hancock.

    (And the Leadsom for Leader march. Assuming Kinnock in Sheffield has the all-time undisputable number one slot.)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    IanB2 said:

    Tory councillors defending in May, be very afraid....
    May 2020 is probably fine - we will have left the EU and Boris will celebrate it.

    May 2021 is a problem - we won't have a deal in December 2020 and things may look very different.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    Jonathan said:


    Given the promises you’ve made, you’ll find governing hard. The election is the easy bit.

    No, there is a long list of people to blame. Once you're in the Bannon playbook, you're in. This pivot crap is peak PB Tory self-delusion.
  • Matt Hancock is horrified.
This discussion has been closed.