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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Can somebody please outline where the 20 most easy to win seats Johnson needs to win are? Are they all in the North?

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Try this
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited December 2019

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    Tories wont be down 10 in London. I would guess they will gain Kensington, lose Richmond
    If they have a good night they will gain Dagenham and Rainham too, if they have a great night they will add Carshalton and Wellington, Battersea, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate and Eltham and hold Richmond Park.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    You are a straw clasper. As well as a horse batterer.

    Out of interest, which do you think are the "nailed on" ten gains?
  • I just can't imagine Hendon and Finchley are going to be lost to the Tories as long as the voters there have eyes and can read the news.
  • RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    O.k I've seen enough time for my prediction

    Because of the Labour collapse in the "red wall", the Tories will win a majority of 120 seats.

    Brave prediction, I know.....but there you go.

    I will be somewhat happy if after the Bong Edwards says "and we are predicting a conservative landslide victory".

    Somewhat.
    By the looks of it, he won't be very happy if he has to say that...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/10492437/bbc-huw-edwards-bias-labour-tories/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580

    Can somebody please outline where the 20 most easy to win seats Johnson needs to win are? Are they all in the North?

    Not all, as you have ones like Kensington and Canterbury which have very small majorities and they would hope to win back - though if its a case of remain areas getting more remainy, and brexity areas more brexity, then they will not win those even as they sweep the north.

    Wiki does list them in order of majority. It would be remarkable to see the Scottish seats won, but I guess anything is possible up there now.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_target_seats_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The MRP was fascinating in giving somewhere with an ultramarginal Labour majority last time like Newcastle-Under-Lyme, a similar sized tory majority this time to places like Don Valley where the result was far less close.
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Mark Commode?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    egg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nunu2 said:

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
    Tories have a 15% lead in Wrexham

    People seem to be overstating the chances of a hung Parliament and understing the chance of a tory landslide.
    I forsee turbulence in all directions, and a Tory majority, but not a landslide.

    However, I will bow to the wisdom of the great Curtice (pbuh) this time next week. He's the only one we can really trust.
    Curtice isn't a one man band you know. He works together with Michael Thrasher on Sky News on the exit poll with a team of experts.
    I think it was a joint broadcasters exit poll. What was smart was they didn’t ask people how they voted, they asked them to fill in a second ballot.
    Yep, they've been doing that since 1992.
  • Endillion said:

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    You are a straw clasper. As well as a horse batterer.

    Out of interest, which do you think are the "nailed on" ten gains?
    I’m not attempting to hide what I am.

    I don’t think any are nailed on, I was just going on what the YG said for Scotland and what 5 likely/possible gains in London are.
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Mark Commode?
    Yes
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    You are counting your chickens there that places like Uxbridge will go.
    Like I said it’s the hope that kills you
    A late twist and closing of polls after weekend and after pollsters call it won’t shock any of us will it? Tories have been governing for ten years after all and hardly been a great success of it.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited December 2019

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    RobD said:

    So down 5 MPs, so if it does end up being tight that may well be crucial.

    Interesting that’s Tories down in another poll though and I think Labour as well. All MOE stuff, the polls have got stuck.

    If it's a new poll it is identical to the last YouGov.
    YouGov is actually one of the best pollsters for Labour at the moment, which wasn't the case a couple of months ago when they were the only pollster putting Labour in third place behind the LDs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Lanark and Hamilton East looks like a hell of a seat - 32.6% SNP, 32.1% Con, 31.9% Labour.

    Presumaing an SNP recovery I'd assume it was safeish, but if SLAB have collapsed, then who knows?
  • egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
  • Nothing on YouGov tw@tter fed about a new poll or Britain Elects.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    Where are you getting those Scotland and London figures from?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    LDs need a 5% swing even in their 10th target seat. It's rough out there for them. Labour have got at least 20 that could be won on less than 1% swing, in theory.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    She has the X Factor? 😶
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    kle4 said:

    LDs need a 5% swing even in their 10th target seat. It's rough out there for them. Labour have got at least 20 that could be won on less than 1% swing, in theory.

    It's easy to forget that 2005 was the LDs best election with 62 seats. Cleggmania in 2010 took them down to 59.
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    kle4 said:

    LDs need a 5% swing even in their 10th target seat. It's rough out there for them. Labour have got at least 20 that could be won on less than 1% swing, in theory.

    Althoug if the LDs were on 7.6% last time and manage 13% this time, whilst the Tories remain around 43% isn't that effectively a 5% swing to the LDs?

    Or is it 2.5%? (It's late and my maths processor is shutting down for the night).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    kle4 said:

    Lanark and Hamilton East looks like a hell of a seat - 32.6% SNP, 32.1% Con, 31.9% Labour.

    Presumaing an SNP recovery I'd assume it was safeish, but if SLAB have collapsed, then who knows?

    Outside chance of a Tory gain there. Worth putting a small bet on them perhaps.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Andy_JS said:

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    Where are you getting those Scotland and London figures from?
    How did May get into this?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    egg said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    She has the X Factor? 😶
    I don't have any skin in the game , as such, but yes. She's the most charismatic contender. Thornberry has much to offer, but she isn't going to win back the red wall.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
  • moonshine said:

    I see the bbc are being their usual yawn inducing egotistical self again. It’s a black dog sitting on the shoulder of the nation, draining the optimism out of you, trying to twist how you think every day from when your radio alarm goes off to when you drift off on the sofa at night to some shitty comedy panel.

    Life really is sweeter when you don’t have a license and you instead consume media entirely actively rather than passively.

    Beyond the BBC bubble, lead stories on tonight's Sky News:
    - Johnson interacting in a Derbyshire clothing factory, story focused on favourable feedback from ex-Labour voting workers there
    - Corbyn denying accusations of anti-semitism during a school visit
    - 4 Brexit MEPs urging a vote for Johnson
    - Swinson and Sturgeon both out and about in Scotland
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Yes, I think his Friday afternoon film reviews very good and thoughtful, and his recent series on film absolutely excellent. It looks as if only one is still on iplayer, but well worth a watch.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bbn5pt
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    kle4 said:

    LDs need a 5% swing even in their 10th target seat. It's rough out there for them. Labour have got at least 20 that could be won on less than 1% swing, in theory.

    Well of course! That's because the LDs only got 7.4% of the vote last time around. You need a lot of variance in your vote share to make 7.4% win you seats.

    At the very least, the LDs will increase their vote share by a third this time. It's more likely it'll be 50%, and it may even be a near doubling.

    But that won't get them many seats. They'll get a few, I'm sure (Richmond Upon Thames, for example.) Mostly the increased vote share will mean fewer lost deposits and more second places to build on in 2024 (or earlier).

    I started off saying the LDs would get 21 seats. I now think that's the top end of their range of 16-21. It's possible they do better than that if their vote ends up "doing a Scotland" and really concentrating in a few constituencies. It's also possible that they end up losing a couple of seats and end up basically flat - despite their increased vote share.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    edited December 2019

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
    Yes, that was great. The Christmas films one was excellent.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    BluerBlue said:

    I just can't imagine Hendon and Finchley are going to be lost to the Tories as long as the voters there have eyes and can read the news.

    Hendon is safe, almost certainly. Finchley might flip if enough people are tricked into voting for Luciana Berger and Labour come through the middle, but even that's a long shot. Only three candidates, so at least 34% needed to win, and both Labour and the Lib Dems probably have ceilings around there. Either an easy Tory hold or a very tight three way marginal, probably the former.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    camel said:

    egg said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    She has the X Factor? 😶
    I don't have any skin in the game , as such, but yes. She's the most charismatic contender. Thornberry has much to offer, but she isn't going to win back the red wall.
    She is at risk this time however, her constituency looks ripe for a turnover on a meltdown night
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    You are a straw clasper. As well as a horse batterer.

    Out of interest, which do you think are the "nailed on" ten gains?
    I’m not attempting to hide what I am.

    I don’t think any are nailed on, I was just going on what the YG said for Scotland and what 5 likely/possible gains in London are.
    Oh sorry, I misread. I thought you meant Labour were nailed on for ten gains.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Yes, I think his Friday afternoon film reviews very good and thoughtful, and his recent series on film absolutely excellent. It looks as if only one is still on iplayer, but well worth a watch.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bbn5pt
    You obviously have a lot of spare time.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Worth noting that if Boris wins he has a big decision to take immediately on the BBC.

    BBC has already said over 75s lose free TVL in June 2020 (unless on Pension Credit).

    Boris can't stop BBC doing that. However it will mean BBC has £450m more annual income than expected and Boris can threaten to claw that back by freezing the TVL again from 2022.

    Today's events must increase the temptation for him to go in hard on the BBC.

    (I'm sure someone in the next 15 mins will post scrap the TVL but realistically no chance he'll do that. Charter and TVL already in place until 2027).
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
    Yes, that was great. The Christmas films one was excellent.
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1202704448457306112
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
    Yes, that was great. The Christmas films one was excellent.
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1202704448457306112
    I hope that isn't how Frank runs all of his focus groups with such a clear nudge....
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    Massive fan. I thought his review of Bladerunner 2049 - 20 minutes that absolutely captured the feel of a film he clearly loved without giving away a single spoiler - was masterful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    Pidcock certainly has the x factor for Momentum and Labour members, less so for swing voters in marginal seats, which means if Labour loses and Corbyn resigns and she replaces him as leader the Tories under a victorious re elected Boris have the chance of 20 years in power, even longer than 1979 to 1997 (unless perhaps Chuka becomes LD leader and they overtake Labour).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited December 2019

    camel said:

    egg said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    She has the X Factor? 😶
    I don't have any skin in the game , as such, but yes. She's the most charismatic contender. Thornberry has much to offer, but she isn't going to win back the red wall.
    She is at risk this time however, her constituency looks ripe for a turnover on a meltdown night
    Why do you say Pidcock better at winning back lost voters? Thornberry would be much better at doing that because she has more years of experience, and it shows in the media, Thornberry thinks on her feet quicker, delivers a message clearer, and would form a more representative shadow cabinet.
  • MikeL said:

    Worth noting that if Boris wins he has a big decision to take immediately on the BBC.

    BBC has already said over 75s lose free TVL in June 2020 (unless on Pension Credit).

    Boris can't stop BBC doing that. However it will mean BBC has £450m more annual income than expected and Boris can threaten to claw that back by freezing the TVL again from 2022.

    Today's events must increase the temptation for him to go in hard on the BBC.

    (I'm sure someone in the next 15 mins will post scrap the TVL but realistically no chance he'll do that. Charter and TVL already in place until 2027).

    Surely they can pass a law exempting the over 75's from paying the license,after that it's up to the BBC to cut it's bloated services & staff.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
    Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
  • Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
    Yes, that was great. The Christmas films one was excellent.
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1202704448457306112
    'Yippie Ki Yayyyyy, Melon Farmers'
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    Massive fan. I thought his review of Bladerunner 2049 - 20 minutes that absolutely captured the feel of a film he clearly loved without giving away a single spoiler - was masterful.
    I avoid him. I think he ramps average movies too often.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use".
    Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
  • Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    Your worried about some of Boris's friendships when some of Corbyn's pals are terrorists &.dictators.

    Your having a laugh?
  • HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    Pidcock certainly has the x factor for Momentum and Labour members, less so for swing voters in marginal seats, which means if Labour loses and Corbyn resigns and she replaces him as leader the Tories under a victorious re elected Boris have the chance of 20 years in power, even longer than 1979 to 1997 (unless perhaps Chuka becomes LD leader and they overtake Labour).
    I agree that a decent loss for Labour this time, followed by the membership continuing to ignore electability and going for Pidcock leads to Johnson in power for a decade.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    camel said:

    Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use".
    Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
    You'd best explain about paragraphs - she's new
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    edited December 2019

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Yes, he's one of the best film critics around. Love listening to him on Five Live. I agree with him that The Exorcist is the best film ever.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    Pidcock certainly has the x factor for Momentum and Labour members, less so for swing voters in marginal seats, which means if Labour loses and Corbyn resigns and she replaces him as leader the Tories under a victorious re elected Boris have the chance of 20 years in power, even longer than 1979 to 1997 (unless perhaps Chuka becomes LD leader and they overtake Labour).
    I'm suggesting her as value for next Labour leader, that's all. I think she has what it takes to become just that.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use".
    Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
    You'd best explain about paragraphs - she's new
    To be fair I'm struggling, having spent the last week avoiding double returns like the plague, only to find they are back in vogue.

    Indeed, de rigeur.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
    Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
    Seriously, he is showing good energy and self belief going into this last week, and his strategy tonight must have played well with labour waverers, win it for those who have been forgotten in the last decades, inclusivity, leave no one behind, education is the key to making U.K. better place not brexit, every time labour promise to reverse Tory tax cuts its attacked as dangerous but merely takes us back to time when growth was good and tax take fairer.
  • camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    Pidcock certainly has the x factor for Momentum and Labour members, less so for swing voters in marginal seats, which means if Labour loses and Corbyn resigns and she replaces him as leader the Tories under a victorious re elected Boris have the chance of 20 years in power, even longer than 1979 to 1997 (unless perhaps Chuka becomes LD leader and they overtake Labour).
    I'm suggesting her as value for next Labour leader, that's all. I think she has what it takes to become just that.
    Every Tory in the country would be delighted at her or Long-Bailey. If Labour come to their senses Keir Stammer would be next leader.
  • As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    HYUFD said:

    So if they’re five down in Scotland and five down in London, they’re 10 down so they need 10 gains to stand still.

    Right now that looks nailed on, they’ll easily do that. But I can see - and call me a straw clasper I don’t mind anymore - how somehow if things narrow, these seats may end up being the difference between a slim majority and a HP.

    A few LD upsets May make thinks harder still.

    It’s the hope that kills you :(

    Tories wont be down 10 in London. I would guess they will gain Kensington, lose Richmond
    If they have a good night they will gain Dagenham and Rainham too, if they have a great night they will add Carshalton and Wellington, Battersea, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate and Eltham and hold Richmond Park.
    Carshalton has to be an outside chance for another LD loss: it's a Leave voting London seat.

    If the previous (excellent) Tory candidate Matthew Maxwell-Scott was standing again, I'd say it would be a likely Conservative gain. As it is, I think it's only an outside shot.

    (Still: it's a reminder that a quarter of the current LD seats are Leave-leaning - Eastbourne, North Norfolk and Carshalton.)

    I also wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs win Richmond Park but lose Carshalton.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    Henrietta said:

    Boris Johnson will probably go on the Andrew Neil show. It's a "Will he? Won't he?" play that keeps him in the limelight now and will increase his viewing figures when he appears. That's what I think most of the time. The rest of the time I think he's frit, he is a big liability for the Tories because of all those skeletons rattling their bones (discussing having somebody beaten up; telling lies - not in the usual politician sense but in the sense of getting sacked from his job for dishonesty; his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use; his awful friendships with the fascistic Taki Theodorocopulos, and with Darius Guppy who associates with brazen Nazi Richard Spencer; and much more besides), and there may be some at the BBC who want to end his career and then everyone wakes up and there's another referendum, and so on. But most of the time I think it's a case of Trumpian media play, he'll do the show, and it will be boring - after all, he does quite a good job of playing this character "Boris Johnson".

    The way I see it is that the more Johnson's enemies whine about him not going on the less likely he is to ...go on. Who benefits from his appearance? The Tories - or Labour? He's not going to subject himself to 30 minutes of highly ramped, highly destructive questioning on prime time TV days before a general election. A few choice clips all over social media dominating the agenda right before people go to the ballot box. The fuss over the empty chair will mean nothing next Thursday - but a car crash TV interview like Corbyn's will do serious damage.

    Cowardly, frit, etc, etc, etc - Boris will take those accusations from his enemies all day long over the very real damage Andrew Neill would do to him.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?

    No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
    They are very much alike.

    I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader.
    Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
    I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
    Pidcock certainly has the x factor for Momentum and Labour members, less so for swing voters in marginal seats, which means if Labour loses and Corbyn resigns and she replaces him as leader the Tories under a victorious re elected Boris have the chance of 20 years in power, even longer than 1979 to 1997 (unless perhaps Chuka becomes LD leader and they overtake Labour).
    I'm suggesting her as value for next Labour leader, that's all. I think she has what it takes to become just that.
    Every Tory in the country would be delighted at her or Long-Bailey. If Labour come to their senses Keir Stammer would be next leader.
    Another from North London! No wonder the centrepiece policy this time round is subsidised rail fares from Stevenage to Kings Cross. Labour seems to stop at Peterborough.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.

    And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    My favourite is the Entourage review
    His Marley and Me review is also magnificent, but the Sex And They City 2 rant is superb.
    His recent BBC series on film genres have been very good (that's another one you missed @moonshine!)
    Yes, that was great. The Christmas films one was excellent.
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1202704448457306112
    I hope that isn't how Frank runs all of his focus groups with such a clear nudge....
    My favourite bit is when they are hiding from the Nazi’s, and that kid they trusted betrayed them.
  • rcs1000 said:

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.

    And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
    Thanks! And good night all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited December 2019

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    More importantly the latest episode of the Baby Yoda Mandalorian is out in a few hours...

    Forget Andrew Neil rant breaking the internet, it has nothing on Baby Yoda clips.
  • HYUFD said:

    How many seats could Labour potentially win in London from the Tories? Was it three?

    5 Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green and Uxbridge
    Sod the others, please just let it be Uxbridge :smile:
    It won't be F&GG the Labour campaign barely exists despite only needing a 1.6% swing.
  • The Times article is up.

    SLab collapse and wipeout, apart from the People's Republic of Morningside. SLD fail to make gains. SNP up slightly.
  • Nothing on YouGov tw@tter fed about a new poll or Britain Elects.

    That poll was two days ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    rcs1000 said:

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.

    And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
    I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    YOUGOV SCOTLAND POLL (fieldwork 29 Nov to 3 Dec):

    SNP 44
    Con 28
    Lab 15
    LD 12
    Green 1
    Brexit 0

    Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.

    Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited December 2019

    twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1202741937490583552?s=21

    The Scots not fans of hard left Socialism mixed with antisemitism by the looks of it....
  • egg said:

    Random question any Kermode fans here?

    Met him once in the BFI. Surprisingly large imposing man, very intense....I don't know what movie he had just seen, but from his mood, I have a feeling it wasn't much better than Sex in the City 2 in his opinion.
    Massive fan. I thought his review of Bladerunner 2049 - 20 minutes that absolutely captured the feel of a film he clearly loved without giving away a single spoiler - was masterful.
    I avoid him. I think he ramps average movies too often.
    The Last Jedi? :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Slab very much outperformed last time - does anyone give them hope of that again?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Remember almost all Scottish Con MPs will have first term incumbency - they might beat UNS a bit.
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    Henrietta said:

    (...) because of all those skeletons rattling their bones ( [...] his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use (...)

    I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use".
    Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
    I thought that was a lovely paragraph. Prosecution exhibit 'A': (Boris Johnson, Spectator, 1995): "Why shouldn't we pay a fiver for accidentally summoning an ambulance? It's politics, stupid":

    "So you can imagine that I was much struck to read the words of Sir Duncan Nichol, the former NHS chief executive, who has said that the only way to solve the service's long-term funding problems is 'increased private expenditure through, for example, an extension of user charges and patient co-payments'. Good point, Sir Duncan."

    "Why should I not be charged, say, £50 for that inglorious episode [when his daughter was rushed to hospital by ambulance and it turned out that she was not ill], a fraction of its real cost? Why not even a tenner or a fiver? As Sir Duncan has said, the NHS budget strains at its seams. There is no reason why we should pay for people to have tattoos removed from their bottoms. It seems reasonable that the middle classes should be required to stump up for non-essential services they can well afford. Mr Rodney Walker, former chairman of the NHS Trust federation, is also bang on the nail when he says that in the future the NHS should be for those who are genuinely sick, and for the elderly."

    "There is a moral point. If NHS services continue to be free in this way, they will continue to be abused, like any free service. If people have to pay for them, they will value them more. Above all, there is an economic point. In a very modest way, this extension of private funds into the NHS would help the Chancellor's straitened circumstances. "

    "To return to my dilemma with the ambulance: there is no practical reason why I should not be charged for allowing my family accidentally to use an emergency vehicle as a taxi. There is a political reason: I will not be charged for the ambulance because politicians dare not take away from the middle classes the benefits they have accrued under the welfare state. For the same reason they will not take away all the other instruments of universal provision such as child benefit, disability allowance, and the rest. It is greed on our part, and cowardice on theirs. Now, to break the cycle, where do I send the cheque?"
  • kle4 said:

    Slab very much outperformed last time - does anyone give them hope of that again?

    If you are left leaning, why would you vote for Uncle Thickie, when Sturgeon is a million times better politician.
  • Henrietta said:

    camel said:

    Henrietta said:

    (...) because of all those skeletons rattling their bones ( [...] his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use (...)

    I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use".
    Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
    I thought that was a lovely paragraph. Prosecution exhibit 'A': (Boris Johnson, Spectator, 1995): "Why shouldn't we pay a fiver for accidentally summoning an ambulance? It's politics, stupid":(...)
    Exhibit 'B' (Boris Johnson, Daily Telegraph, 2002): "If Blair's so good at running the Congo, let him stay there" (2002):

    "Since he [Tony Blair] is in this candid mood, he might as well go on to say that we have one of the worst health services in Europe. To pluck a statistic at random: if you are a British woman with leukaemia, you have 21 per cent less chance of living another five years than a German woman with leukaemia. No one is suggesting that the problems of the NHS began in 1997; it is just that Labour does not seem to have any intention of solving them."

    "One of the reasons the Germans are healthier than us is that they are able to spend more on health, because roughly half their hospitals are independently funded. Is that a solution Blair is prepared to discuss? Or is Labour prepared to learn from France? There they stop the wasting of GPs' time by imposing a 25 per cent upfront charge - which is refundable later - on everyone who calls to see the doctor."

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
    Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
    Seriously, he is showing good energy and self belief going into this last week, and his strategy tonight must have played well with labour waverers, win it for those who have been forgotten in the last decades, inclusivity, leave no one behind, education is the key to making U.K. better place not brexit, every time labour promise to reverse Tory tax cuts its attacked as dangerous but merely takes us back to time when growth was good and tax take fairer.
    Were you around in the 70s?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    edited December 2019
    How many people will forget or deny they were involved in all this worshipping crap when Corbyn is shellacked next week?

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1202693668647424014
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    HYUFD said:

    How many seats could Labour potentially win in London from the Tories? Was it three?

    5 Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green and Uxbridge
    Sod the others, please just let it be Uxbridge :smile:
    It won't be F&GG the Labour campaign barely exists despite only needing a 1.6% swing.
    They are somewhat invisible. Support in the traditional Labour wards seems to be holding pretty firm though, and they can in theory shed 5k votes and still win the seat.
  • kle4 said:

    Slab very much outperformed last time - does anyone give them hope of that again?

    No.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009

    How many people will forget or deny they were involved in all this worshipping crap when Corbyn is shellacked next week?

    https://twitter.com/MichaelRosenYes/status/1202722755747164161

    A lot of them will blame gammons for the result I expect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited December 2019
    delete
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.

    And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
    I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
    Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    HYUFD said:

    How many seats could Labour potentially win in London from the Tories? Was it three?

    5 Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green and Uxbridge
    Sod the others, please just let it be Uxbridge :smile:
    It won't be F&GG the Labour campaign barely exists despite only needing a 1.6% swing.
    They are somewhat invisible. Support in the traditional Labour wards seems to be holding pretty firm though, and they can in theory shed 5k votes and still win the seat.
  • Andy_JS said:

    How many people will forget or deny they were involved in all this worshipping crap when Corbyn is shellacked next week?

    https://twitter.com/MichaelRosenYes/status/1202722755747164161

    A lot of them will blame gammons for the result I expect.
    Oh god he retweets stuff from the likes of Evolve Politics. SAD. I know he is left leaning, but the cult really has sent people mental. I genuinely expected better from him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    MikeL said:

    YOUGOV SCOTLAND POLL (fieldwork 29 Nov to 3 Dec):

    SNP 44
    Con 28
    Lab 15
    LD 12
    Green 1
    Brexit 0

    Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.

    Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.

    I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited December 2019

    How many people will forget or deny they were involved in all this worshipping crap when Corbyn is shellacked next week?

    twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1202693668647424014

    Has "Rachael" left the house for once?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
    Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
    Seriously, he is showing good energy and self belief going into this last week, and his strategy tonight must have played well with labour waverers, win it for those who have been forgotten in the last decades, inclusivity, leave no one behind, education is the key to making U.K. better place not brexit, every time labour promise to reverse Tory tax cuts its attacked as dangerous but merely takes us back to time when growth was good and tax take fairer.
    Were you around in the 70s?
    Yep. labour’s proposed tax increases take us back to which year you claiming? 😃
  • kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?

    It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.

    And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
    I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
    Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
    What's a DVD?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    It says in that that you can show someone else's postal vote so long as you have their permission, which surprises me. Seems like it would be easy to 'encourage' someone to say they gave permission if they are asked.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    The Times article is up.

    SLab collapse and wipeout, apart from the People's Republic of Morningside. SLD fail to make gains. SNP up slightly.

    The poll has both the SNP and the LDs up about 6% from 2017, while SLB is hammered, and the Conservatives lose out to Labour voters going SNP.

    You could see any number of results on this. The SLDs "Bollocks to Brexit" might well lose them Conservative tactical voters in Edinburgh West and East Dumbartonshire, delivering those seats to the SNP. Alternatively, Unionist tactical voting could see them hold these and grab Fife NE.
  • LDs still on 4?
    Stephen Gethins is a good lad but losing him for swapsies with E.Dunbartonshire might almost be worth it for the LOLs.
  • How many people will forget or deny they were involved in all this worshipping crap when Corbyn is shellacked next week?

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1202693668647424014

    But he won't be shellacked next week - what ever the result - it'll be the BBC/Andrew Neil, "gammons" or "the Jews" who are blamed.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    egg said:

    BluerBlue said:

    And with 6 days to go, the dog I've long been expecting to bark just put out a loud WOOF:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10492603/boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-tv-clash-brexit-referedum-elections/

    "BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.

    New analysis by the Tories shows Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to “all UK residents” would mean allowing two million EU nationals to vote in a second referendum and General Elections for the first time.

    In his letter to the Labour leader last night, Mr Johnson wrote: “You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum. This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic."

    It would alienate millions who already feel disenfranchised and ignored by our political system."

    Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
    I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.

    If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
    I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference.
    Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
    Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
    Seriously, he is showing good energy and self belief going into this last week, and his strategy tonight must have played well with labour waverers, win it for those who have been forgotten in the last decades, inclusivity, leave no one behind, education is the key to making U.K. better place not brexit, every time labour promise to reverse Tory tax cuts its attacked as dangerous but merely takes us back to time when growth was good and tax take fairer.
    Were you around in the 70s?
    Yep. labour’s proposed tax increases take us back to which year you claiming? 😃
    I wasn't aware of any such claim. Have I missed a trick?
This discussion has been closed.