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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil

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  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    dr_spyn said:

    Never upset a local paper's picture editor.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg arrives late for only public grilling of election https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/general-election-2019-jacob-rees-3614056?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    That is brilliant!
  • So no new polls today?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

  • Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    But Corbyn was torn a new orifice in his interview and it changed very little.
    Despite him coming across as a lying, clueless, tired, stupid, racist fool.
    Then if it's so easy Johnson should go on there - what's he got to hide?
    Nothing. Unlike Mr Corbyn and his cupboard of terrorist skeletons.

    The fact it’s winding-up Labour supporters something rotten is a source of extreme amusement for me.

    Nothing funnier than a foam-mouthed leftie 😂




    Corbyn was scrutinised, it was a car crash.
    But Johnson has run away, why?
    Less of an idiot than Corbyn? It's a small but potentially significant difference.
  • TimT said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Never upset a local paper's picture editor.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg arrives late for only public grilling of election https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/general-election-2019-jacob-rees-3614056?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    That is brilliant!
    Its standard for photos of Nigel Farage in some publications.
  • kinabalu said:

    We're not going to know the answer to that until the results come in. The polls could narrow (though they're not showing much sign of doing so at the moment,) or they could turn out to have been wrong.

    Indeed. 10 pm next Thursday. I think a medium to large Con win is baked in but nevertheless I will be wracked with tension as for every GE except for 2001.
    Yeah, I wasn’t exactly holding my breath in 2001 either.

    kinabalu said:

    *IF*.

    Whither the robots?
    We're
    Yes, the polls could be wrong. Or not. Beware of a simplistic assumption that because the polls overstated the Con lead by about 5% in 2017, they are bound to be wrong again in 2019 and in the same direction of overstating the Conservatives.

    This from Anthony Wells should give pause for thought:

    "For individual polling companies the errors of 2017 are far more straightforward to address than in 2015. For most polling companies it has been a simple matter of dropping the adjustments that went wrong. All the causes of error I listed above have simply been reversed – for example, ICM have dropped their demographic turnout model and gone back to asking people how likely they are to vote, ComRes have done the same. MORI have stopped factoring demographics into their turnout, YouGov aren’t reallocating don’t knows, BMG aren’t currently weighting down groups with lower registration. If you are worried that the specific type of polling error we saw in 2017 could be happening now you shouldn’t be – all the methods that caused the error have been removed. A simplistic view that the polls understated Labour in 2017 and, therefore, Labour are actually doing better than the polls suggest is obviously fallacious. However, that is obviously not a guarantee that polls couldn’t be wrong in other ways.

    But what about the polling error of 2015? This is a much more pertinent question. The methodology changes that were introduced in 2017 were intended to correct the problems of 2015. So if the changes are reversed, does that mean the errors of 2015 will re-emerge? Will polls risk *overstating* Labour support again?"

    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10002
    I’m a proponent of the view that the gap between a hung parliament and a landslide is tiny, so the value is in backing the odds at the margins for either of those two results.

    There isn’t much value in backing the central predictions of 340-360 seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    But Corbyn was torn a new orifice in his interview and it changed very little.
    Despite him coming across as a lying, clueless, tired, stupid, racist fool.
    Then if it's so easy Johnson should go on there - what's he got to hide?
    Nothing. Unlike Mr Corbyn and his cupboard of terrorist skeletons.

    The fact it’s winding-up Labour supporters something rotten is a source of extreme amusement for me.

    Nothing funnier than a foam-mouthed leftie 😂




    Corbyn was scrutinised, it was a car crash.
    But Johnson has run away, why?
    It’s not compulsory to do. Your man chose to do it. Boris never confirmed he would do it.

    I never knew AN was the arbiter-in-chief of electoral interviews. Is it a new law?

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    Nah, c'mon Cyclefree. Tell us how you really feel. :smile:
  • RobD said:
    Booooooooooooooooo.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Biden shoots down voter's Ukraine theory, challenges him to pushups and IQ test: 'You're a damn liar' https://t.co/vcPwrjUHe0

    Creepy joe loses the plot
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    1.4M views now!!!

    How many people signed that petition on A50?
    6 million, which did absolutely nothing, as did this petition which got 203 signatures:
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Evening all

    Iirc correctly Rod Liddle said either in the Sunday Times or the Spectator that he'd signed the petition 30 times. The numbers are just rubbish, which was the point he set out to show.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:
    Booooooooooooooooo.....
    For the evening standard so it'll be out during the day I guess?
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019
    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spend the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    Wasn't that IOS? :D
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Booooooooooooooooo.....
    For the evening standard so it'll be out during the day I guess?

  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

    You’ve just blown my mind.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    IOS....I believe he got dropped on in some small regional town and I believe the battle bus forget to ever pick him back up again...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    But Corbyn was torn a new orifice in his interview and it changed very little.
    Despite him coming across as a lying, clueless, tired, stupid, racist fool.
    Then if it's so easy Johnson should go on there - what's he got to hide?
    If you need a list, I can help. Be warned it is a long list.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    IOS....I believe he got dropped on in some small regional town and I believe the battle bus forget to ever pick him back up again...
    Um...he’s about now you know. Cough.
  • RobD said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spend the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    Wasn't that IOS? :D
    It was Compouter. Both he/she and IOS disappeared straight after. They were tick tockers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My all time favourite ramper was Cromwell for Marco Rubio.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    But Corbyn was torn a new orifice in his interview and it changed very little.
    Despite him coming across as a lying, clueless, tired, stupid, racist fool.
    Then if it's so easy Johnson should go on there - what's he got to hide?
    Less that the terrorists err brave freedom fighters friend perhaps
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    We always do seem to acquire rabidly partisan posters shortly before elections that seem to turn back into pumpkins on the stroke of 10 0 clock on election day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    He almost certainly won't do the interview now - but this was worth it

    AN will come to regret it.

    He may do already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    My all time favourite ramper was Cromwell for Marco Rubio.

    Every time I read his name I think of that clip. Quite possibly worse than Truss.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019
    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TimT said:

    Orthodox Jews seeking to join Labour party faced home vetting visits, dossier alleges
    https://t.co/iz3vOvNLCW

    Why would you want to join a party that would discriminate against you like that? And even if it weren't discriminatory against one social group, who would consent to home vetting visits to join a political party?
    For some unexplained reason it was only that group of people subjected to that practice.

    It's a mystery
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    So, tomorrow will be all about the debates. Saturday will be about the debates. The Sundays will go after Corbyn. We then have three days campaigning which will have the Yougov MRP slap bang in the middle.

    Feels like if neither leader blows up in the debate, then we are where are and not a lot will change. But the MRP will set the betting markets until 10pm Thursday.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    He almost certainly won't do the interview now - but this was worth it

    AN will come to regret it.

    He may do already.
    I mean seriously. Just stop for a second. Look at what you've written.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    So, tomorrow will be all about the debates. Saturday will be about the debates. The Sundays will go after Corbyn. We then have three days campaigning which will have the Yougov MRP slap bang in the middle.

    Feels like if neither leader blows up in the debate, then we are where are and not a lot will change.

    Depends what additional middle-class bribes there are from the red team.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    andy3664 said:

    Re Wrexham. The Tory candidate failed to turn up for the election debate. Taking a leaf from the Johnson playbook.

    She also refused to print leaflets in Welsh. When asked, sort of replied 'Can't be bothered' To every problem, such as homeless, NHS, transport etc, her oven ready reply was Brexit.
    I don't mind labour losing in the North. However, if they vote Tories, after 9.5 years of austerity shafting, then even God can't save them
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    dr_spyn said:
    The likeness is uncanny.
  • kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    It was "Compouter".
    edit. Late I see. :neutral:
  • Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    Maybe, but if Neil had done a similar fisk on Corbyn for not turning up (I know he did) we wouldn’t have been able to move on this board without you proclaiming how much of a ‘Tory’ he is.

    Perhaps we can all just agree he’s a tough and fair investigative journalist?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Is it me or are there less polls than previous elections?

    Who can forget 2015 and the YouGov daily and EICIPM?

    That exit poll broke my heart, my friends. If only EICIPM became the PM, the UK would be in a much better position than we are today but hey-ho at least I can wear my "Don't blame me, I voted Labour in 2015" badge!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    dr_spyn said:
    Clearly a fan of Father Ted:
    https://youtu.be/9x70bndpc70
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

    You’ve just blown my mind.
    If you like maps, and who doesn't!, check out this twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1201244675186839554?s=20
  • Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    Maybe, but if Neil had done a similar fisk on Corbyn for not turning up (I know he did) we wouldn’t have been able to move on this board without you proclaiming how much of a ‘Tory’ he is.

    Perhaps we can all just agree he’s a tough and fair investigative journalist?
    I think at the time I said Corbyn's interview was a car crash. Neil is a great interviewer and a great journalist. One of the few I do respect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    Some is indeed the important word, and it was missing from the original posted point!
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

    That really has turned my whole world view on its head.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    So, tomorrow will be all about the debates. Saturday will be about the debates. The Sundays will go after Corbyn. We then have three days campaigning which will have the Yougov MRP slap bang in the middle.

    Feels like if neither leader blows up in the debate, then we are where are and not a lot will change.

    Depends what additional middle-class bribes there are from the red team.
    Look at what happened to the train policy. No coverage. To get any airtime they’d need something that wasn’t a bung. Guaranteed council house? Parliament to Brum?
  • So, tomorrow will be all about the debates. Saturday will be about the debates. The Sundays will go after Corbyn. We then have three days campaigning which will have the Yougov MRP slap bang in the middle.

    Feels like if neither leader blows up in the debate, then we are where are and not a lot will change. But the MRP will set the betting markets until 10pm Thursday.

    Dont forget the last, great Corbyn giveaway which is bound to come this weekend. No doubt it will have escaped the great bogus costings exercise that was their manifesto and grey book.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019

    kinabalu said:

    We're not going to know the answer to that until the results come in. The polls could narrow (though they're not showing much sign of doing so at the moment,) or they could turn out to have been wrong.

    Indeed. 10 pm next Thursday. I think a medium to large Con win is baked in but nevertheless I will be wracked with tension as for every GE except for 2001.
    Yeah, I wasn’t exactly holding my breath in 2001 either.
    2005 was hardly a edge of seat job either was it?!
  • So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet


    I’m not cocky.

    I think Boris’s behaviour is appalling.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spend the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    Wasn't that IOS? :D
    IOS was the "It's fine Labour's ground game is amazing" guy.
    Compouter was the "tick tock losers" guy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    One week till BONG!
  • Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

    You’ve just blown my mind.
    If you like maps, and who doesn't!, check out this twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1201244675186839554?s=20
    Thank you, that does look interesting. Twitter is at its best with this stuff.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TimT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    Nah, c'mon Cyclefree. Tell us how you really feel. :smile:
    As you know, I don’t like to be intemperate. And at least 2 of those policies are the epitome of sweet reasonableness. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    speedy2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    1.4M views now!!!

    How many people signed that petition on A50?
    6 million, which did absolutely nothing, as did this petition which got 203 signatures:
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    I signed that one :D
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Or rather closer to the truth.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited December 2019

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    RobD said:

    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?
    Desperste for his own party. Methinks...
  • Foxy said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Does anyone remember a poster called "computer" or something like that, who spent the entire GE2015 campaign ramping Labour's chances of a crushing victory right up until the exit poll bong, whereupon they were mysteriously never heard from again? No reason for asking, just curious.

    We always do seem to acquire rabidly partisan posters shortly before elections that seem to turn back into pumpkins on the stroke of 10 0 clock on election day.
    There was someone called IOS who was constantly ramping Labour's "ground game". He found out the hard way how sensible people react when their neighbourhood is flooded with Labour activists.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited December 2019
    BONG!!!!! :D
  • RobD said:

    So, tomorrow will be all about the debates. Saturday will be about the debates. The Sundays will go after Corbyn. We then have three days campaigning which will have the Yougov MRP slap bang in the middle.

    Feels like if neither leader blows up in the debate, then we are where are and not a lot will change.

    Depends what additional middle-class bribes there are from the red team.
    Look at what happened to the train policy. No coverage. To get any airtime they’d need something that wasn’t a bung. Guaranteed council house? Parliament to Brum?
    The internet meme has it sorted. Final offer is 4 cans of Stella and a carton of 200 fags.
  • Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    It's like the revoke petition all over again.

    The LDs will make promising to being interviewed by Andrew Neil their core policy as a result?
    (They do have a policy about mandating leaders' debates already)
    Why bother having a policy to mandate debates if TV channels have already done it?
    I assume it means if invited you have to go? Now you mention it I'm not sure how it would work.
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Whoever made that chart going back in time, Bravo!
    Almost as good as a Lib Dodgy bar chart?
    It's just a convention that time goes from left to right. Open your eyes to a new perspective!
    Are you a fan of reversed orientation maps as well? :)

    You’ve just blown my mind.
    If you like maps, and who doesn't!, check out this twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1201244675186839554?s=20
    Shit, climate change is worse than I thought.

    *paging Kevin Costner*
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    Maybe, but if Neil had done a similar fisk on Corbyn for not turning up (I know he did) we wouldn’t have been able to move on this board without you proclaiming how much of a ‘Tory’ he is.

    Perhaps we can all just agree he’s a tough and fair investigative journalist?
    I’d have no problems if AN had a go at Corbyn for not appearing . Johnson should have done the AN interview early and everyone would have forgotten about it already .

    He’s now made a big story about it.
  • Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
    I'd be scared I think bearing in mind how wrong the polls were in 2015.
  • BONG!

    F**k me. One week.
  • Bloody hell it really is one week
  • kinabalu said:

    We're not going to know the answer to that until the results come in. The polls could narrow (though they're not showing much sign of doing so at the moment,) or they could turn out to have been wrong.

    Indeed. 10 pm next Thursday. I think a medium to large Con win is baked in but nevertheless I will be wracked with tension as for every GE except for 2001.
    Yeah, I wasn’t exactly holding my breath in 2001 either.
    2005 was hardly a edge of seat job either was it?!
    There was an outside chance of stripping Blair of his majority, so at least something to see.
  • One week to save the NHS/Jezza/Boris/Jo!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
    Hadn’t he already left his wife by then?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    Bloody hell it really is one week

    168 hours to go!
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Define Outsourcing:
    So Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson, Priti Patel, Sajid Javid and Aberdeen born Michael Gove (with no father's name on birth certificate ) are lined up to save England. From Europe and the hordes of marauding immigrants, piccanninnies, watermelon smiles and letter boxes.
    Sorry, I need a drink.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    What decides elections: this - or an Andrew Neil strop?
  • Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
    I'd be scared I think bearing in mind how wrong the polls were in 2015.
    2015: Polls (on average) overstated Labour
    2017: Polls (on average) understated Labour
    2019: ?
  • What decides elections: this - or an Andrew Neil strop?
    The Telegraph isn't convincing anyone who didn't already vote Tory.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    BONG!

    F**k me. One week.

    Roll on. I think everyone (including the pollsters) have just given up this time...
  • Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
    I'd be scared I think bearing in mind how wrong the polls were in 2015.
    2015: Polls (on average) overstated Labour
    2017: Polls (on average) understated Labour
    2019: ?
    Well, a poll on the day before said Labour would lose by 10 points, so if one wished to clutch at straws, one could argue we're already in HP territory
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
    Hadn’t he already left his wife by then?
    Does that make his behaviour acceptable then?
  • The Telegraph have officially declared Corbyn an anti-Semite. They hid that well
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
    I'd be scared I think bearing in mind how wrong the polls were in 2015.
    2015: Polls (on average) overstated Labour
    2017: Polls (on average) understated Labour
    2019: ?
    Well, a poll on the day before said Labour would lose by 10 points, so if one wished to clutch at straws, one could argue we're already in HP territory
    And by God do you clutch at straws.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    melcf said:

    Define Outsourcing:
    So Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson, Priti Patel, Sajid Javid and Aberdeen born Michael Gove (with no father's name on birth certificate ) are lined up to save England. From Europe and the hordes of marauding immigrants, piccanninnies, watermelon smiles and letter boxes.
    Sorry, I need a drink.

    Are you complaining they're racist, or not racist enough for you?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    What decides elections: this - or an Andrew Neil strop?
    I get the point but this cover would be far more powerful if it was on the front of the Guardian, Independent or Mirror instead of just the Torygraph. Who buying a copy of that paper was going to vote Labour anyway?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    RobD said:

    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?

    One aspect of this issue has been overlooked and it is this. Corbyn has repeatedly said that there is no place for anti-semitism in Labour. So let’s take him at his word and that this is his genuine belief. Why then has he been so ineffective at dealing with it? And if he can’t resolve this in the last 4 years, why should anyone believe that he would be capable of effecting the great transformational changes in Britain he claims he wants?

    Anti-semitism doesn’t just go to Corbyn’s morality but to his competence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    The Telegraph have officially declared Corbyn an anti-Semite. They hid that well

    Wasn't that the Jewish Labour Movement?
  • Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    So many reasons why the cockiness of tories on here is leaving me bemused, although I suspect one of them is psychological. If you tell yourself something is true enough times then it must be.

    I've several reasons why I think this is not going the way you seem to think it is. Here's just one, for now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/polls-election-ethnic-minority-voters-black-asian-scottish-lib-dem?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Considering consistent 9-10 point leads, some of the Tories are the very opposite of cocky!
    The important word there is some. Some are acting like they've already won.
    I'd love to have seen your demeanour if Labour were 10 points ahead a week before an election. You get titillated by the minutiae of every single opinion poll.
    I'd be scared I think bearing in mind how wrong the polls were in 2015.
    2015: Polls (on average) overstated Labour
    2017: Polls (on average) understated Labour
    2019: ?
    Well, a poll on the day before said Labour would lose by 10 points, so if one wished to clutch at straws, one could argue we're already in HP territory
    And by God do you clutch at straws.
    I do.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    What decides elections: this - or an Andrew Neil strop?
    Neither.
    If you look at the top issue it's Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    He almost certainly won't do the interview now - but this was worth it

    AN will come to regret it.

    He may do already.
    I mean seriously. Just stop for a second. Look at what you've written.

    I've already explained why, further down thread. I can't be arsed to rehash....
  • RobD said:

    The Telegraph have officially declared Corbyn an anti-Semite. They hid that well

    Wasn't that the Jewish Labour Movement?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/12/05/jeremy-corbyn-anti-semite/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
    Hadn’t he already left his wife by then?
    Does that make his behaviour acceptable then?
    It doesn't make his personal actions any better, but it would come across even more badly if he did it when she was undergoing cancer treatment, so if that is not the case it should not be said that it is.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    GIN1138 said:

    BONG!

    F**k me. One week.

    Roll on. I think everyone (including the pollsters) have just given up this time...
    Six weeks is too long, way too long. Should be four tops.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?

    One aspect of this issue has been overlooked and it is this. Corbyn has repeatedly said that there is no place for anti-semitism in Labour. So let’s take him at his word and that this is his genuine belief. Why then has he been so ineffective at dealing with it? And if he can’t resolve this in the last 4 years, why should anyone believe that he would be capable of effecting the great transformational changes in Britain he claims he wants?

    Anti-semitism doesn’t just go to Corbyn’s morality but to his competence.
    Which is, presumably, why his most passionate defenders claim that it is just smears even though he himself does not say that. Either he has been unable to deal with the issue or he doesn't want to. He would argue has has been dealing with it, the job is just not complete, but it is fair to say there seems to be internal dissent on that point.
  • speedy2 said:

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
    Immigration has become a significant factor in Wrexham, but because no-one is allowed to talk about it the effects have been hidden until now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
    Hadn’t he already left his wife by then?
    Does that make his behaviour acceptable then?
    How does his wfe subsequently having cancer make his prior behaviour more unacceptable?

    Pillock.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Tories seem to be very quick to dismiss something we know for a fact they'd be going on about if this was Corbyn

    Maybe, but if Neil had done a similar fisk on Corbyn for not turning up (I know he did) we wouldn’t have been able to move on this board without you proclaiming how much of a ‘Tory’ he is.

    Perhaps we can all just agree he’s a tough and fair investigative journalist?
    I think at the time I said Corbyn's interview was a car crash. Neil is a great interviewer and a great journalist. One of the few I do respect.
    He is a bullying windbag. Corbyn was unacceptably bullied. As an interviewer your only job is to ascertain the facts. Will Corbyn apologise over anti-Semitism? No. Important question, so you get to ask it again for absolute clarity. Then you move on, and if you don't, further repetition of the same question is actually just a cover for hectoring, browbeating and grandstanding. Not that I object in Corbyn's case, but let's not accept Neil at his own valuation.
  • 10 o clock news replaying the AN clip
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?

    One aspect of this issue has been overlooked and it is this. Corbyn has repeatedly said that there is no place for anti-semitism in Labour. So let’s take him at his word and that this is his genuine belief. Why then has he been so ineffective at dealing with it? And if he can’t resolve this in the last 4 years, why should anyone believe that he would be capable of effecting the great transformational changes in Britain he claims he wants?

    Anti-semitism doesn’t just go to Corbyn’s morality but to his competence.
    Could it be in the LP's interest to be institutionally anti-semitic?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited December 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson is a liar and he is a coward. The election campaign has demonstrated that. No-one can say they have not been warned.

    He's also arrogant, don't forget that.
    Yes, a liar, a coward, arrogant AND an adulterer....don't forget that.
    The two items from Johnson's past which would have killed any other politician's career are the financial issues surrounding Ms Arcuri and most importantly the Darius Guppy affair which is pretty much consigned to history.

    If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.

    Running away from his responsibilities as a father and cheating on his wife as she underwent treatment for cancer would usually be dealbreakers, too.

    Why do you always mention the cancer thing?

    It doesn’t make his cheating any worse
    Hadn’t he already left his wife by then?
    Does that make his behaviour acceptable then?
    How does his wfe subsequently having cancer make his prior behaviour more unacceptable?

    Pillock.
    You are extremely rude! Besides which no one has suggested his prior behaviour was more unacceptable. It was merely unacceptable anyway.
This discussion has been closed.