Per John Curtice the above equates to 8 Con MPs in Scotland.
Article implies no new YouGov poll for whole UK - refers to 9% lead being a narrowing after 11% in the MRP.
I don't think it'll work out like that because the Tories will do better than average in the seats they hold, and worse than average in the rest of Scotland like Glasgow and Edinburgh. These numbers are arrived at through uniform swing I think.
That makes sense, and I also expect the bulk of the increased SNP voteshare to be in seats where labour was strong in 2017 rather in tory seats. In the EU election the SNP got 1% more in Scotland than in 2017, but a slightly worse result in most tory seats (and even 5-6% less in Moray / Banff and Buchan).
One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).
It says in that that you can show someone else's postal vote so long as you have their permission, which surprises me. Seems like it would be easy to 'encourage' someone to say they gave permission if they are asked.
Mr Ahmed, who is also a coordinator of the Kurdish Exile Centre in Plymouth, previously told Plymouth Live: "We have been very active campaigning over the last few weeks and one of my friends sent me that photo to say they had voted. "He gave me permission to post the picture he had sent to me."
Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....
Also, maybe I don't know enough about these things, but I would have thought a Kurd might be a bit hesitant about Jezza given Hamas are big supporters of Erdogans war on the Kurds.
As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.
And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
What's a DVD?
If you're not old enough to remember I can understand why the "V" looks ominous.
As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.
And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
LDs still on 4? Stephen Gethins is a good lad but losing him for swapsies with E.Dunbartonshire might almost be worth it for the LOLs.
I'd also enjoy Christine Jardine getting punted, but Swinson losing would be a great moment.
The sense I'm getting from mates in NE Fife is that Stephen Gethins is really well-liked as a good constituency MP, so I do hope he holds off the (other) yellow peril. My friend's Dad is a straight Tory > SNP switch as he likes Stephen.
Yes, I think his Friday afternoon film reviews very good and thoughtful, and his recent series on film absolutely excellent. It looks as if only one is still on iplayer, but well worth a watch.
I like film, and I don't sleep much! I catch the reviews show on the Sounds App, and the Film shows on catch up. Is it really so hard?
Kermodes reviews on the BFI Player are very good too, and that is a great subscription service for someone like me who is bored by the trite stuff that comes out of Hollywood.
There are some other very good film critics around. This one on Youtube is another of my favourites:
As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.
And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
What's a DVD?
It's what replaced VHS. 😊
This is going to move on to a discussion about acetate so I think it's bedtime.
Very odd projections. The greens get 9 seats from 1% of the vote?!
Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
I think there will be, as a reaction to Brexit. Nothing else is as likely to fire up the Scottish vote. It is not just Brexit itself, but also the way that Scotland is clearly playing second fiddle to Westminster.
Trump really is Orange: The Makeup Brand (And Shade) That Stains All Of Donald Trump's Shirts A new Washington Post report about Trump's practice of hiring undocumented immigrants reveals something else he wants covered up, too — his skin.
"BORIS Johnson last night demanded Jeremy Corbyn scrap his underhand plan to allow two million EU migrants vote in a second Brexit referendum as the pair prepare for their final TV clash.."
Cummings and Boris are onto big winner with this attack line, because Labour arent rebutting they are agreeing with him.
I think there's a good chance Boris will bring it up in tomorrow's debate. At the very least, it should feature heavily in all the Leave-targeted attack ads as the Tories unleash their war chest.
If it gains any traction at all, Labour will be utterly destroyed.
I don’t know if it’s possible for anyone to be utterly destroyed in a brexit election, there are actually more remainers out there in the country now than leavers and lumpy vote for tv could make a difference. Corbyn was on good form this evening, hit the right buttons in the right places. This Cummings line attack is to firm up converts on the brexit issue not mop up remainers too.
Christ, your comment about Corbyn hitting the right buttons really freaked me. Hasn't he promised not to hit any, ever?
Seriously, he is showing good energy and self belief going into this last week, and his strategy tonight must have played well with labour waverers, win it for those who have been forgotten in the last decades, inclusivity, leave no one behind, education is the key to making U.K. better place not brexit, every time labour promise to reverse Tory tax cuts its attacked as dangerous but merely takes us back to time when growth was good and tax take fairer.
Were you around in the 70s?
Yep. labour’s proposed tax increases take us back to which year you claiming? 😃
I wasn't aware of any such claim. Have I missed a trick?
No. Simple honest question looking for a simple honest reply from PB brains trust, if Labour proposed tax rises are implemented it tax us back to which year of similar tax rates?
(...) because of all those skeletons rattling their bones ( [...] his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use (...)
I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use". Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
"Since he [Tony Blair] is in this candid mood, he might as well go on to say that we have one of the worst health services in Europe. To pluck a statistic at random: if you are a British woman with leukaemia, you have 21 per cent less chance of living another five years than a German woman with leukaemia. No one is suggesting that the problems of the NHS began in 1997; it is just that Labour does not seem to have any intention of solving them."
"One of the reasons the Germans are healthier than us is that they are able to spend more on health, because roughly half their hospitals are independently funded. Is that a solution Blair is prepared to discuss? Or is Labour prepared to learn from France? There they stop the wasting of GPs' time by imposing a 25 per cent upfront charge - which is refundable later - on everyone who calls to see the doctor."
So no examples of Johnson's "demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use" except the statement "There is no reason why we should pay for people to have tattoos removed from their bottoms"?
I was rather hoping for some long forgotten policy statement rather than a couple of Johnson's polemics that he used to knock out for a living. Hey ho. 6 days to save the NHS and all that, eh?
One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).
The rural vote is older, so therefore both more Unionist and more Brexity, so therefore more Tory.
I can see Scottish politics is increasingly realigning to Nationalist vs Unionist, and in most areas the only Unionist party is going to be SCON, and that makes up some of the lost Ruth Davidson vote. SLAB are doomed, and SLD are going to have to work very hard to maintain the efficiency of their vote.
A lot of them will blame gammons for the result I expect.
Oh god he retweets stuff from the likes of Evolve Politics. SAD. I know he is left leaning, but the cult really has sent people mental. I genuinely expected better from him.
Rosen has been a habitue of the far left for a very, very long time !
One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).
They do have a city (Stirling) in one of their seats.
A lot of them will blame gammons for the result I expect.
Oh god he retweets stuff from the likes of Evolve Politics. SAD. I know he is left leaning, but the cult really has sent people mental. I genuinely expected better from him.
Rosen has been a habitue of the far left for a very, very long time !
I know he is a lefty. He used to do stuff with the Socialist Worker.
But looking at this twitter feed, is total mental and detached from reality now. It is rammed full of all the usual Corbyn fake news sites / twitter accounts.
One thing I'm pretty certain of: the Tory vote in Scotland will hold up better in rural/suburban areas compared to the cities. The Tories don't have any seats in the cities, except Aberdeen South (which contains lots of suburbs, including the wealthiest area in Scotland).
They do have a city (Stirling) in one of their seats.
I should have written large urban areas rather than cities.
As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.
And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
What's a DVD?
It's what replaced VHS. 😊
VHS has been replaced? Hah! I knew Betamax would win out in the end! Oh godsdammit...
As we have moved onto films, any thoughts on Knives Out? Worth watching?
It's excellent fun. A very lighthearted modern version of an Agatha Christie mystery. The actors all look like they're loving being in it, which makes a pleasant change.
And Daniel Craig's Louisiana accent isn't bad.
I dont know about his accent, but I loved the movie. Hadnt seen any trailers so had no expectations, but it was a fun murder mystery, well acted and with funny moments sprinkled throughout. I've already pre ordered the DVD.
Can you still get DVDs? Where do you get the needles?
What's a DVD?
It's what replaced VHS. 😊
VHS has been replaced? Hah! I knew Betamax would win out in the end! Oh godsdammit...
A couple of weeks and Jezza might well be announced the nationalized British Betamax company....
Labour is promising to base a network of small business advisers in Post Office branches if it wins next Thursday's general election. The party says the advisers would form part of a wider agency to help firms access advice and bid for government contracts.
And it is pledging £250bn in loans for businesses over ten years, provided by a network of regional and national development banks.
Yes, I think his Friday afternoon film reviews very good and thoughtful, and his recent series on film absolutely excellent. It looks as if only one is still on iplayer, but well worth a watch.
I like film, and I don't sleep much! I catch the reviews show on the Sounds App, and the Film shows on catch up. Is it really so hard?
Kermodes reviews on the BFI Player are very good too, and that is a great subscription service for someone like me who is bored by the trite stuff that comes out of Hollywood.
There are some other very good film critics around. This one on Youtube is another of my favourites:
(...) because of all those skeletons rattling their bones ( [...] his demonstrable record of racism, and of wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use (...)
I thought you were doing fine till "his demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use". Go on, I'll bite, Do demonstrate. Preferably with paragraphs.
"Since he [Tony Blair] is in this candid mood, he might as well go on to say that we have one of the worst health services in Europe. To pluck a statistic at random: if you are a British woman with leukaemia, you have 21 per cent less chance of living another five years than a German woman with leukaemia. No one is suggesting that the problems of the NHS began in 1997; it is just that Labour does not seem to have any intention of solving them."
"One of the reasons the Germans are healthier than us is that they are able to spend more on health, because roughly half their hospitals are independently funded. Is that a solution Blair is prepared to discuss? Or is Labour prepared to learn from France? There they stop the wasting of GPs' time by imposing a 25 per cent upfront charge - which is refundable later - on everyone who calls to see the doctor."
So no examples of Johnson's "demonstrable record of .... wanting to end universal healthcare free at the point of use" except the statement "There is no reason why we should pay for people to have tattoos removed from their bottoms"?
I was rather hoping for some long forgotten policy statement rather than a couple of Johnson's polemics that he used to knock out for a living. Hey ho. 6 days to save the NHS and all that, eh?
Did you seriously think receiving a bill for a child's ambulance journey a few days later counts as "free at the point of use"? He advocates people having to pay for NHS services because then they will value them more.
What's wrong with holding him to account for what he wrote at the Spectator and the Telegraph? He can after all say he has changed his mind, and voters can decide whether they trust him.
Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....
There are a lot of unanswered questions out there starting with "why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of" but somehow instagram have a business model
I think this nurses thing is playing the media and the opposition like the famous £350m per week, everybody's quibbling about 20,000 of them but repeating the 50,000 number in the process, and what voters who want more nurses are hearing is that they're going to get more nurses.
Another crumb should the buffoon make it next week is that presumably Owen Jones will cease to be a Labour activist but return to his secret undercover role as a respected journalist?
No, Owen Jones will join the Laura Pidcock leadership campaign within a week of a Labour defeat and Corbyn resignation
They are very much alike.
I can’t believe posters on here reckon she is leadership material. Even if Boris gets a majority, brexit is far from done, a very tricky negotiation all next year, and any surrenders losing support could make it difficult in the commons, so another GE can’t be ruled out in next couple of years. Tories will welcome that with Pidcock labour leader. Before HY posts but they have all signed up to Get brexit done, that may account for the WA and entering transition, no one given Boris blank cheque in the negotiation on new relationship. No ones that daft are they?
I'm a Pidcock ramper. I think she's exactly what the membership will be looking for. And to be fair, the Islington set haven't been setting the world on fire. She has the x factor.
She has the X Factor? 😶
She's a Corbynista Ed Miliband - liked by activists because she's one of them, steeped in Labour and knows the party language, but is just a bit to weird in that political anorak way to break through with the wider electorate. A northern accent doesn't suddenly turn you into a woman of the people. Everyone also seems to forget quite how inexperienced the Corbynista dauphins are - which isn't to say they necessarily lack intellect, but she's been an MP two years, mostly doing uncritically spouting the party line or giving speeches to devotees. She's shown no sign of being willing or able (yet) to defuse a news bomb with some judiciously chosen patter rather than launching into "aren't Labour great" mode. Of the two top Corbynista women, Long-Bailey is the more competent and battle-hardened (which you'd expect given she's McDonnell's protege, not Corbyn's). Rayner meanwhile can do the backstory and heart better, and unlike the other two isn't quite so tied to the current leadership as to be unable to edge away from its more toxic legacies.
Also worth noting that on a bad night Pidcock could be in trouble in North West Durham - it's unlikely she'd lose - but could get an Amber Ruddesque majority that hampers her running. I'd sell.
I think this nurses thing is playing the media and the opposition like the famous £350m per week, everybody's quibbling about 20,000 of them but repeating the 50,000 number in the process, and what voters who want more nurses are hearing is that they're going to get more nurses.
After the initial ructions about the number, I honestly haven't heard people mention it.
Generally on the policy side of things, it all seems to have gone very flat. I would be surprised if people can remember much of the specifics of anything that is being promised by any party other than Brexit stance and general Labour are going to spend a lot / nationalize things like railways / free uni.
Is there going to be a spreadsheet with the crucial info like previous elections ?
What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
Is there going to be a spreadsheet with the crucial info like previous elections ?
What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
I would say result at things like previous GE, how the seat voted in Brexit referendum...
I guess the big bit of info we want to try to establish as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. Are they managing to convert your Wakefield's of this world.
If they are struggling, its curtains for their chances of a majority.
I could probably pull all that information myself. I will see if I get time.
Is there going to be a spreadsheet with the crucial info like previous elections ?
What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
I would say result at things like previous GE, how the seat voted in Brexit referendum...
I guess the big bit of info we want to see as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. If they are struggling, its curtain for their chances of a majority.
I could put that information into the expected declaration times spreadsheet. You could also put the YouGov MRP data into it and see how the results compare with the MRP. That would be a bit like comparing the referendum results with the expected result from the formula.
Is there going to be a spreadsheet with the crucial info like previous elections ?
What crucial information do you want it to have? With the referendum I had a formula for estimating how each seat would vote if it was 50/50 overall, but you can't do that for a general election.
I would say result at things like previous GE, how the seat voted in Brexit referendum...
I guess the big bit of info we want to see as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. If they are struggling, its curtain for their chances of a majority.
I could put that information into the expected declaration times spreadsheet. You could also put the YouGov MRP data into it and see how the results compare with the MRP. That would be a bit like comparing the referendum results with the expected result from the formula.
I really should be doing work, but got my brain going now....firing up new Python project...
Labour is promising to base a network of small business advisers in Post Office branches if it wins next Thursday's general election. The party says the advisers would form part of a wider agency to help firms access advice and bid for government contracts.
And it is pledging £250bn in loans for businesses over ten years, provided by a network of regional and national development banks.
Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....
Because some people are fucking dumb.
I have many relatives. One of them forced me to have WhatsApp on my phone so I could keep up with family matters. Fine. Then she keeps sending me pictures of her meals. Just her food on a plate. Gods it's annoying...
Given the results of Tusk's EU presidency, I think Donald Tusk was one of the most spectacular mistakes of EU history.
The problem of management of the EU is that governments appoint political failures and exiles for EU jobs, it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.
Juncker for instance was the first Luxembourg PM to have lost re-election in 40 years, that's quite an achievement.
In other news, right-wing politicians bugger things up: Juncker, Tusk, Barnier, Cameron, May, Johnson, Merkel...
Tusk at least has some integrity, and experience of defending liberal democracy against the authoritarian/totalitarian abyss. He is way ahead of the shitheads in the UK.
If anybody is interested, I now have constituency data ordered by estimated declaration time showing Brexit Vote / GE2017 info. I will be revising this data to pick out Tory / Lab marginals with high Leave vote, so hopefully on the night we can find out ASAP if the Tories are really picking up Flat Cap Fred votes that they need for a majority.
I can also add in the demographic data for each seat if people are interested.
If anybody is interested, I now have constituency data ordered by estimated declaration time showing Brexit Vote / GE2017 info. I will be revising this data to pick out Tory / Lab marginals with high Leave vote, so hopefully on the night we can find out ASAP if the Tories are really picking up Flat Cap Fred votes that they need for a majority.
I can also add in the demographic data for each seat if people are interested.
On thread, I don't think anyone outside the Guardian readership, the Westminster village and the membership of this site gives a damn whether Boris does the Andrew Neil interview or not. I was out and about last night among mostly non-Tory voters and no-one mentioned it.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
LDs still on 4? Stephen Gethins is a good lad but losing him for swapsies with E.Dunbartonshire might almost be worth it for the LOLs.
I'd also enjoy Christine Jardine getting punted, but Swinson losing would be a great moment.
The sense I'm getting from mates in NE Fife is that Stephen Gethins is really well-liked as a good constituency MP, so I do hope he holds off the (other) yellow peril. My friend's Dad is a straight Tory > SNP switch as he likes Stephen.
There is an outside chance that instead of 5 SLib seats by next Friday morning we could in fact be back to just Orkney and Shetland. Swinson losing would be fantastic. I know very few SCons who would think about voting SLib because in some crucial cases we would rather see the yellow peril take them back if it means we go into the runner-up slot for next time. In 2017 a SLib pal (President of their Constituency Assoc) said to me on the eve of poll he hoped the Tories wouldnt split the vote and let Ian Blackford hold on. After the election I turned the comment on him and pointed out it was the SLibs who prevented the SCons from turfing the Fat Laird out.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
That is not for the BBC to decide - and certainly not in the middle of an election campaign.
The Wrexham constituency poll tonight with conservatives at 44% labour at 29% is an eye opener especially as it is in the Airbus catchment area
If true labour are going to have a very bad night on the 12th
Won't be Airbus for long...
Another Lefty showing ignorance of reality again:
"European planemaker Airbus wants to stay in the UK whatever the outcome of Brexit, as the country is “a very important pillar” for the company, new CEO Guillaume Faury said on Tuesday (21 May), amending negative comments made by his predecessor."
Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
Was it written in law that politicians had to bow to every demand from each and every broadcaster?
It does need formalizing for future elections with my preference being a single interview with each of the main broadcasters.
I'd get rid of the debates or at the very least get rid of the ridiculous braying audiences packed with activists who make the whole thing in to a pantomime.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
Boris is a law unto himself, not ideal PM material.
That is not for the BBC to decide - and certainly not in the middle of an election campaign.
Or the Supreme Court? Boris simply does what he wants,
That utter collapse of the Brexit Party into the Tories is quite a thing to behold!
Tories are now a wholly owned subsidiary of Brexit. All other policies have been forced to fit around it. If it fails to sort the problems of Grimsby there is going to be only one party to blame.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
We need to get as far away from Presidential politics as possible and personally I would ban these so called debates which add nothing to the knowledge of the average voter. Time for politicians to get back on their soapboxes and spend more time on the streets and less in TV studios. Not a coincidence that John Major achieved the highest ever vote for the winning government party.
Tories are now a wholly owned subsidiary of Brexit. All other policies have been forced to fit around it. If it fails to sort the problems of Grimsby there is going to be only one party to blame.
The election itself is shaped by Brexit so inevitably what would ordinarily be the grist of a campaign is drowned out to a degree.
It doesn't mean that will be the case post election. I predict Brexit will fall off the radar for the vast majority of people once withdrawal is confirmed and there will be very little interest in the subject.
The Tories will need to start making some headway in to the regional and inter-generational wealth disparities if they want a chance of winning in 2024.
On topic, we need some kind of independent organization to take charge of these debates. The public does watch them, and uses them to make their decision.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
We need to get as far away from Presidential politics as possible and personally I would ban these so called debates which add nothing to the knowledge of the average voter. Time for politicians to get back on their soapboxes and spend more time on the streets and less in TV studios. Not a coincidence that John Major achieved the highest ever vote for the winning government party.
Completely disagree. Voters do learn things from the debates, most of them don't follow politics as closely as those on this website. Plus they get to hear from the candidates directly. They reckon 6.7m watched the debates last time.
Tories are now a wholly owned subsidiary of Brexit. All other policies have been forced to fit around it. If it fails to sort the problems of Grimsby there is going to be only one party to blame.
The election itself is shaped by Brexit so inevitably what would ordinarily be the grist of a campaign is drowned out to a degree.
It doesn't mean that will be the case post election. I predict Brexit will fall off the radar for the vast majority of people once withdrawal is confirmed and there will be very little interest in the subject.
The Tories will need to start making some headway in to the regional and inter-generational wealth disparities if they want a chance of winning in 2024.
That middle bit is a keeper!
How are they going to go about that last bit, as a party owned by the oldies?
That AN clip is utterly damning, who in their right mind can give that man the keys to no 10.
People here may hate Corbyn, but clearly any Tory majority is not a risk worth taking and those that can't stomach either have to find a way to force a hung parliament.
I think he should do it tbf but I'm sorry Andrew Neil isn't the only interviewer in the country.
I like him but I wouldn’t go that far. Having a mix of interviewing styles is a good thing
FPT Of course, Boris now knows the questions he will face. If he thinks he can prepare answers for them then my guess is he will do the interview on Wednesday. The TV/radio media won't be able to cover it on Thursday.
I rather think that his knowing the questions he would be asked was the problem, not the solution.
Neil's a puffed up windbag and his face will be a picture next week when Boris STILL gets a majority and he's shown to utterly, utterly insignificant.
Johnson’s cowardice and lies will not stop him getting a majority because of who he is up against. But they also reveal the contempt in which he holds the electorate. That does not bode well for him or, much more important, the country.
Well then the electorate can throw him out next time and do so with relish.
I suspect that is exactly what will happen.
Tory councillors defending in May, be very afraid....
Neil's a puffed up windbag and his face will be a picture next week when Boris STILL gets a majority and he's shown to utterly, utterly insignificant.
Johnson’s cowardice and lies will not stop him getting a majority because of who he is up against. But they also reveal the contempt in which he holds the electorate. That does not bode well for him or, much more important, the country.
Well then the electorate can throw him out next time and do so with relish.
I suspect that is exactly what will happen.
Tory councillors defending in May, be very afraid....
May 2020 is probably fine - we will have left the EU and Boris will celebrate it.
May 2021 is a problem - we won't have a deal in December 2020 and things may look very different.
Comments
Why would you feel the need to send somebody a photo of your ballot paper....
Also, maybe I don't know enough about these things, but I would have thought a Kurd might be a bit hesitant about Jezza given Hamas are big supporters of Erdogans war on the Kurds.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15049/hamas-support-erdogan-syria
Out on a limb here, but I don’t think there will be an Indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.
The sense I'm getting from mates in NE Fife is that Stephen Gethins is really well-liked as a good constituency MP, so I do hope he holds off the (other) yellow peril. My friend's Dad is a straight Tory > SNP switch as he likes Stephen.
Kermodes reviews on the BFI Player are very good too, and that is a great subscription service for someone like me who is bored by the trite stuff that comes out of Hollywood.
There are some other very good film critics around. This one on Youtube is another of my favourites:
https://youtu.be/0R7R0JHvvgo
Scottish Tories unchanged on 31, LDs up 6 to 11 and Scottish Labour down 8 on the 24 they got last time.
The Makeup Brand (And Shade) That Stains All Of Donald Trump's Shirts
A new Washington Post report about Trump's practice of hiring undocumented immigrants reveals something else he wants covered up, too — his skin.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-makeup-brand_l_5de9729ee4b0913e6f8d6e7f
I was rather hoping for some long forgotten policy statement rather than a couple of Johnson's polemics that he used to knock out for a living. Hey ho. 6 days to save the NHS and all that, eh?
I can see Scottish politics is increasingly realigning to Nationalist vs Unionist, and in most areas the only Unionist party is going to be SCON, and that makes up some of the lost Ruth Davidson vote. SLAB are doomed, and SLD are going to have to work very hard to maintain the efficiency of their vote.
But looking at this twitter feed, is total mental and detached from reality now. It is rammed full of all the usual Corbyn fake news sites / twitter accounts.
And it is pledging £250bn in loans for businesses over ten years, provided by a network of regional and national development banks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50681311
Putting aside the £250bn in loans, all the above isn't free either.
I also presume you will only be able to bid for government contracts if you have the correct gender / BAME balance and the correct Eco-credentials.
Every Frame a Painting (now defunct), Lindsay Ellis, Chris Stuckmann, Jeremy Jahns, A Matter of Film (defunct?).
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-pa-number/
What's wrong with holding him to account for what he wrote at the Spectator and the Telegraph? He can after all say he has changed his mind, and voters can decide whether they trust him.
Also worth noting that on a bad night Pidcock could be in trouble in North West Durham - it's unlikely she'd lose - but could get an Amber Ruddesque majority that hampers her running. I'd sell.
Generally on the policy side of things, it all seems to have gone very flat. I would be surprised if people can remember much of the specifics of anything that is being promised by any party other than Brexit stance and general Labour are going to spend a lot / nationalize things like railways / free uni.
I guess the big bit of info we want to try to establish as early as possible is how are the Tories are doing in strong Labour Leave type seats. Are they managing to convert your Wakefield's of this world.
If they are struggling, its curtains for their chances of a majority.
I could probably pull all that information myself. I will see if I get time.
I have many relatives. One of them forced me to have WhatsApp on my phone so I could keep up with family matters. Fine. Then she keeps sending me pictures of her meals. Just her food on a plate. Gods it's annoying...
Tusk at least has some integrity, and experience of defending liberal democracy against the authoritarian/totalitarian abyss. He is way ahead of the shitheads in the UK.
Scrapping tuition fees and refunding those who have paid (with interest).
All for a bargain eleventy bazillion quid.
I can also add in the demographic data for each seat if people are interested.
The BBC have messed this up a bit, but ultimately Johnson has put them in an impossible position. It's a bad sign for our democracy when the BBC are releasing videos like this.
"European planemaker Airbus wants to stay in the UK whatever the outcome of Brexit, as the country is “a very important pillar” for the company, new CEO Guillaume Faury said on Tuesday (21 May), amending negative comments made by his predecessor."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/
It does need formalizing for future elections with my preference being a single interview with each of the main broadcasters.
I'd get rid of the debates or at the very least get rid of the ridiculous braying audiences packed with activists who make the whole thing in to a pantomime.
Is John Curtice inadvertently revealing that the next YG MRP is not pleasant reading for English Tories?
It doesn't mean that will be the case post election. I predict Brexit will fall off the radar for the vast majority of people once withdrawal is confirmed and there will be very little interest in the subject.
The Tories will need to start making some headway in to the regional and inter-generational wealth disparities if they want a chance of winning in 2024.
Who are you to ban debates!?
The Conservative's appeal in Scotland is being The Unionist Party.
The leader is irrelevant as long as the direction of travel is Scottish Unionist Party.
It's the difference between SCons being on 8 seats and being on 3 seats.
How are they going to go about that last bit, as a party owned by the oldies?
I rather think that his knowing the questions he would be asked was the problem, not the solution.
(And the Leadsom for Leader march. Assuming Kinnock in Sheffield has the all-time undisputable number one slot.)
May 2021 is a problem - we won't have a deal in December 2020 and things may look very different.