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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil
“It is not too late. We have an interview prepared. Oven-ready, as Mr Johnson likes to say”
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Also: Boris can't be bothered to do an interview.
Big frickin' deal!
People here may hate Corbyn, but clearly any Tory majority is not a risk worth taking and those that can't stomach either have to find a way to force a hung parliament.
p.s. Only 6 full campaigning days remain until polling day.
It's a very effective clip - it summarises a lot of the key problems with Boris in a fair style (since he wants Boris to answer the questions) withotu rebuttal, and without pretending Boris is obliged to attend. Clips don't make a campaign, and as has been noted the turnaround from people who hate Neil who will circulate it will be be very amusing, but it is a good video for Labour to circulate as widely as they can. People who don't like them might still trust Neil.
It is perfecrtly possible that he, and others, might be irritated or outraged by specific things Boris has done or said but on a personal level still want them to win. To pretend anyone who says anything critical - or in this case, merely raise the questions that would be put to someone - means they are out to get that person, is acting like a Corbynite.
He'll have to do it. And be made to look stupid for avoiding it.
By seeking to evade or avoid such scrutiny, it only raises the thought he has something to hide or doesn't have confidence in the pledges that have thrown like confetti by his campaign.
It's perfectly reasonable for him to be asked about his options if he doesn't win a majority or can't get a trade deal with the EU by the end of next year. The more he evades the more those of us who think he is looking to leave without a trade deal on 31/12/20 will be re-enforced in our view.
Of course, Boris now knows the questions he will face. If he thinks he can prepare answers for them then my guess is he will do the interview on Wednesday. The TV/radio media won't be able to cover it on Thursday.
For me Neil sums up everything that's wrong with the media class... They think THEY are the story and this great democratic process we call a general election is all about them.
I'm sure elections were not like this before 2010 and the debates.
EDIT: And I would say Boris's campaign has been poor because even he hasn't really got out and about and actually met the voters in market towns and cities like politicians used to do back in the day.
I think we've certainly lost something with our elections.
Not a single vote will change because Boris wasn't interviewed by Andrew Neil.
There will be a price for not doing it though. It will be more than just the 'chicken' thing. He's kind of confirming that the trust thing is a real issue and for those not already committed to his cause, or against it, it will register.
Strikes me as being a kind of parallel to Corbyn's AS problem. If there's nothing in it, why hasn't it been disposed of? If Johnson is trustworthy, he'd surely want to put the matter beyond doubt to the doubters.
He really cannot complain if those doubters now draw their own conclusions from his no show.
Boris should have done it when it was scheduled but he has the perfect opportunity tomorrow night to address it if asked as he is on BBC after all in one of the two big debates of the campaign
But I doubt many who are not on LD and Labour mailing lists and twitter feeds will see it.
Has anyone here actually spent a few days without seeking any political news? I mean avoiding the tv news, this website and twitter? Whenever I do so, it amazes me how little you hear of it, and how these supposedly pivotal moments are actually just hooks for anoraks to hang their narratives on after the event
In Grimsby, Tories message, No Bread, eat Brexit
After shafting them for 9.5 years. Please give us another 5, to finish the job
And as it is a common retort, Neil being a pompous arse doesn't matter either way.
Should it matter? Probably. I think it reflects badly on the BBC too that they didn’t get all leaders committed before they started the series of interviews.
I am not sure how old you are, but your immature trolling is best confined to the schoolyard.
'I'm surprised someone as supposedly terrifying as you would ask such an inane question Andrew'
I've long thought this election was never going to be a contest and I confidently expect the Conservatives to win a decent majority next week.
There'll be plenty of epitaphs, obituaries and blame to throw around but in truth there was very little to stop a Conservative majority once May resigned and the ComRes poll on June 11th showed Johnson alone of her potential successors winning a majority. Indeed, it may be the final figures don't vary far from the second ComRes poll during the leadership campaign.
Why?
Johnson has been able to yoke the bulk of the LEAVE vote to his side - assuming 75% of the 48% LEAVE vote, that's 36% of the total vote in his pocket. Had the Conservatives picked someone else (Hunt), Farage would have been much stronger and we wouldn't have seen the BXP implosion.
However, 36% doesn't get you over the line - what gets the majority is the other component of the Conservative voting coalition - the 16% of REMAIN voters so let's call that another 8%.
Who are they? Again, two overlapping groups - one is those who, for all they backed REMAIN in 2016, believe the result of the referendum needs to be enacted in the spirit of democracy. In addition, there are those who are terrified of the prospect of a Corbyn Government and even if not really Conservatives and wary of Johnson, see him as a much more palatable alternative to the Islington Marxist.
These three groups exist now but only for now - once Brexit is enacted and assuming Corbyn is gone the Conservatives will then need a new voting bloc and that will be the result of how Johnson and his Party comport themselves in Government in the next five years.
In 2024, they will have a record to defend and commitments on which they can and rightly will be judged. I suspect after 14 years in Government and facing a new and hopefully more centrist opposition, the next GE will be much more interesting.
In a 2017 way but not a 2015 way, of course.
Boris is very lucky he’s facing Corbyn’s Labour. If we had a decent opposition he really wouldn’t be getting my vote.
But you can't help but think the desperation to get Johnson on is because Neil wants a gotcha moment. In other words, it's more about further boosting brand Neil than any true discussion with Johnson.
Amateur hour by the Labour team managing Corbyn - they have exposed their leader to a level of scrutiny not required of the PM.
And amateur hour by Andrew Neil. He's played his cards and shown he is out to "get" the PM - whether he gets to interview him or not, h's gone for "the clip". Not smart. He wil now never get to interview Boris as PM - ever - is my guess. He showed he is no more professional than Andrew Marr.
If I had conspired with a friend to assault a Sun journalist I would have likely as not been charged and convicted of 'conspiracy'. It hasn't hindered Johnson's ascent of the greasy pole one iota.
And of course it's bound to come up tomorrow night again.
There is no way to "Stop Brexit" that makes any logical sense but let's get a proper Brexit which works for the country rather than the nonsense dished up by both May and now Johnson.
As I've said before, a cleverer opposition would have supported May's WA and then ensured the resulting political and trade deal was as close as possible to retaining EU membership. Between them, Labour, the LDs and SNP had the votes to ensure BINO which wouldn't have pleased everyone but would have satisfied the 2016 result.
My fear is empowered by a working majority, Johnson and his loyal sheep will march us out without a trade Deal at the end of next year which, as I recall, was something to which you were vehemently opposed.
Until this time.
Reason? Corbyn.
[..]
Neil was an early advocate of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, describing the case for war and regime change advanced by Tony Blair and George W. Bush as "convincing" and "masterful".
[..]
Neil rejects the scientific consensus on climate change, has frequently misrepresented the science of climate change on his BBC programmes, and has frequently invited non-scientists and climate change deniers to debate climate change on his BBC programmes.
[..]
During Neil's time as editor, The Sunday Times backed a campaign to prove that HIV was not a cause of AIDS. In 1990, The Sunday Times serialised a book by an American conservative who rejected the scientific consensus on the causes of AIDS and argued that AIDS could not spread to heterosexuals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Neil
People do change their minds - perhaps one day you won't be a Tory.
I think that goes to the crux as to the purpose of these interviews.
But I think the secondhand corrosion of BJ’s reputation can’t be written off as “longer term”. If this is prominently covered and commented on in the big papers and TV bulletins, or discussion of it (as opposed to actual views) goes viral, it will at least move the narrative away from Corbyn’s flakiness and on to his.
Probably not a game changer, but the sort of thing which could have a bearing if the wind blows the right way.
Out of interest, how do PBers feel about the legitimacy of Neil’s monologue? I’m a bit surprised the BBC went that far given its normal timidity in calling out politicians (especially at election time). But I’m glad they did given the weaponisation of these appearances (or lack thereof).
If the BBC only allowed interviews with Corbyn/Swinson, the Conservatives could rightly complain this was allowing unequal airtime, and demand their own segment. Ie, exposure is meant to be a positive for your electoral chances. That people are outraged that Johnson and the Tories will be receiving less airtime than their rivals is a clear indication that something has gone horribly wrong somewhere in terms of how these interviews are being conducted. And/or those people have totally lost perspective.
Effectively the argument boils down to, "it isn't fair that Johnson won't walk blindfolded down a banana peel strewn corridor, like the rest of us agreed to".
Go figure
Spot on,people are already bored with it & focused on Christmas, as you say only anoraks,the twitter mob & those don't get out in the real world get excited about it.
And if Boris has a good majority I expect him to compromise with the EU
Of course I do not support no deal but I expect Boris is the only person able to sqhare the issue for me
If he takes us out on a no deal that will not be acceptable to me