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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s taking a big gamble avoiding Andrew Neil

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    They've fallen for the cunning ploy. Boris is going to show up, and Neil will go "So, Prime Minister...that Jeremy Corbyn's a bit of a sh*t, wouldn't you say?"

    Clever devils.
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    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And Wrexham
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    https://twitter.com/MetroUKNews/status/1202704699687886848

    Surprised to see a DMGT paper go for this

    Why. They have editorial independence
    "Independence". Why else would the DMGT own them?
    DMGT has just bought the “i” paper has it not? I don’t think it will therefore turn into the Mail lite.
    And many of their journalists have just resigned. Why might that be?
    Because they’ve been bought by the DMGT. Doesn’t follow that the political bent will change. It’s about the cash. DMGT will take money off lefties as well as Mail readers. It’s called business.
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    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    What else is new?
    Is this going to be the year of the UK's 'Reagan Democrats'? These focus groups are a bloodbath for Labour.
    We will see what happens on polling day but this all seems very 2017 to me.

    If I've got it wrong, I'll hold my hands up. I don't intend to run away because despite everything, I do genuinely enjoy conversing here, if that's not a weird thing to say.
    I honestly can't tell. I'm in Scotland, with family in Northern England - my mum is voting Tory for the first time ever, my brother is a Tory donor but lives in a Labour held seat, so he's considering a tactical vote. Children are all away at University and voting there.

    I've learned a great deal from this site over the last 10 or so years, and it is good to chat to people out of my Edinburgh based Remainer bubble!
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    https://twitter.com/MetroUKNews/status/1202704699687886848

    Surprised to see a DMGT paper go for this

    Why. They have editorial independence
    "Independence". Why else would the DMGT own them?
    You do not understand business do you
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019

    https://twitter.com/MetroUKNews/status/1202704699687886848

    Surprised to see a DMGT paper go for this

    Why. They have editorial independence
    "Independence". Why else would the DMGT own them?
    To make money.
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    Burgon on Newsnight if you fancy some comedy, lads.
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    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And Wrexham
    No. Nobody flocks to Wrexham.... ;)
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Dick Burgon - 'there is some persuasion still to do'. An absolute classic.
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    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truth hurts and it will be all over the paper reviews
    Does the truth about your man Boris leading the news hurt you?
    No .

    Sky news tonight was amazing from Beth Rigby full of praise for how Boris is captivating voters in leave areas and dreadful for Corbyn on anti semitism

    If you do not believe me watch it on play back
    Nice swerve. Almost Boris like. Don’t pick up bad habits. So ANs truths don’t hurt you?
    Did you watch it. And I do not agree with Boris missing AN but doubt it will have any effect
    Another swerve, the truth hurts.
    I would suggest you grow up
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
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    Off topic, it looks to me like the Evening Standard tonight (George) is starting to lean towards Boris.

    I note he also says he wants to heal the nation and understands the need to reach out to all those who voted Remain.

    Interesting.

    The ES backed Boris for the leadership.
    As the London paper I can't see it backing the Tories, but due to the antisemitism I can't see it backing Labour either. It may not take a position, or - god forbid - go for the Lib Dems.
    I think the ES has always been true blue. It even backed Gentleman John in 1997, though it had to pretend that anti-Blair articles from Michael Howard's son were written by former Labour MP Bryan Gould.
    Nobody who lives in London reads the Standard. It's a Home Counties commuter paper, hence the Tory support and endless boring articles about property. Although they did once publish one of my letters so they can't be all bad.
    It also used to read these threads, once publishing a disparaging post that parliamentary candidate Richard Willis made on here about Ted Heath.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    The Wrexham constituency poll tonight with conservatives at 44% labour at 29% is an eye opener especially as it is in the Airbus catchment area

    If true labour are going to have a very bad night on the 12th

    The Tories are unchanged on 44% but the Brexit Party on 8% are taking enough Labour votes to give the Tories the seat
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    Burgon on Newsnight if you fancy some comedy, lads.

    I’m saving myself for him on election night. Whatever sort of night it is he’ll be comedy gold. See also the likes of Nadine Dorries for the Tories.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truth hurts and it will be all over the paper reviews
    Does the truth about your man Boris leading the news hurt you?
    No .

    Sky news tonight was amazing from Beth Rigby full of praise for how Boris is captivating voters in leave areas and dreadful for Corbyn on anti semitism

    If you do not believe me watch it on play back
    Nice swerve. Almost Boris like. Don’t pick up bad habits. So ANs truths don’t hurt you?
    Did you watch it. And I do not agree with Boris missing AN but doubt it will have any effect
    Another swerve, the truth hurts.
    I would suggest you grow up
    Simply don’t chuck it out, if you can’t take it back.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2019
    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance threshold and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    I disagree murali. A Corbyn government would bankrupt the country in six month's flat - and then everyone would suffer, not just the white working class.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    What else is new?
    Is this going to be the year of the UK's 'Reagan Democrats'? These focus groups are a bloodbath for Labour.
    Trump Democrats is more apt.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    All this stuff about constituency MPs, local factors, tactical voting, it does all occur, but it is overwhelmingly the case people vote for that leader bloke / woman.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jason said:

    Dick Burgon - 'there is some persuasion still to do'. An absolute classic.

    "the situation is developing, not necessarily to our advantage"
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,356

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Quoting directly the Jewish Labour Movement is desperate?

    One aspect of this issue has been overlooked and it is this.

    Anti-semitism doesn’t just go to Corbyn’s morality but to his competence.
    Could it be in the LP's interest to be institutionally anti-semitic?

    Labour has more members than any other political party in Europe.This membership has grown under Corbyn's leadership.

    Anti-semitism exists in society as a whole and it is totally unacceptable.

    One of the reasons that there seems to be a cluster in the Labour Party is that the increase in membership has brought with it an increase in complex and difficult issues.It needs to be urgently dealt with as a matter of morality and it should not be used to make political capital by the press or by other parties.

    I can't believe anyone is spouting this utter crap any more after seeing the JLM docs. Oh wait I can, because it's Labour and the party has lost its moral compass and become utterly infected with this evil.

    Everyone is fed up of the ridiculous excuses made for both Corbyn and Labour as a whole. The problem is that his worldview, is at best, antisemitism adjacent - namely buying into an anti-capitalist, 'anti-imperialist' (a misnomer) mindset that isn't necessarily antisemitic of and in itself, but attracts those who are to its banner thanks to its preoccupation with global finance and Israel. The far left has long had what you might call a sanitation problem with this, in that its various campaigns, many chaired or patronised by Corbyn himself, totally failed to put up a barrier and exclude those who were patently antisemitic. You just have to look at some of the articles published by Stop the War while Corbyn was chair and it's a veritable sewer of antisemitic tropes and attitudes. Or the people Corbyn greeted as friends and allies like Raed Salah, because they were the most strident and colourful opponents of Israel.

    People warned of exactly this in 2015, and of course, the same problem that affected the far left, infected Labour, and has now been escalated by the fact that people who before probably hadn't even considered antisemitism and gave not much of a hoot about Israel are now drawn towards those with hateful attitudes because they are vehement Corbyn fans - and guess what - those same antisemitic tropes favoured by the toxic parts of the far left provide an explanation as to why poor Jeremy is so maligned by Jewish groups and leaders.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
    What will a Boris government do for the poor?
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
    What will a Boris government do for the poor?
    Brexit!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?
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    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Criticised for not doing the hustings, criticised for doing the hustings and saying something you don't like.

    Tory candidates can't win
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    murali_s said:

    Jonathan said:

    What decides elections: this - or an Andrew Neil strop?
    I get the point but this cover would be far more powerful if it was on the front of the Guardian, Independent or Mirror instead of just the Torygraph. Who buying a copy of that paper was going to vote Labour anyway?
    But it features on the media paper reviews which is not just watched by 'tories'
    Literally dozens and dozens watch the late night paper reviews. Clearly you think there are loads of people out there who have not made their mind up about Corbyn, but earlier when it was something about Boris, you thought news wouldn’t move a single vote. Funny that.
    Sadly BigG has made a fool out of himself with his sudden transformation to supporting the mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon.
    Corbyn??
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    What else is new?
    Is this going to be the year of the UK's 'Reagan Democrats'? These focus groups are a bloodbath for Labour.
    It is set to be brutal for Labour
    Good - perhaps then someone will stand up to be counted and clean the cesspit
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    Criticised for not doing the hustings, criticised for doing the hustings and saying something you don't like.

    Tory candidates can't win
    They could say things people like?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    HYUFD said:

    Criticised for not doing the hustings, criticised for doing the hustings and saying something you don't like.

    Tory candidates can't win
    Do you like what she said?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    To late, Labour started years back
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Ratters said:

    The Economist endorses the Lib Dems

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/12/05/britains-nightmare-before-christmas?frsc=dg|e

    Probably not going to influence too many constituencies outside the City and Westminster.

    Was it the gender neutral school uniforms?
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    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    Shhhhhhh don’t give away our secret plans.
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    Yes I agree with you. Ten years of conservatives in power hasn’t happened at all.
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    alb1on said:

    speedy2 said:

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
    Immigration has become a significant factor in Wrexham, but because no-one is allowed to talk about it the effects have been hidden until now.
    What other town have a similar untalked-about immigration issue? Wales? England? Are they also going to see two in five of Labour's 2017 voters go walkabout?
    Immigration is a huge factor in Guildford. We rely on the Polish community for competent plumbers and electricians. :)
    ..... in order that we can avoid paying self employed traders a rate for the job that's more than a small fraction of our own salaries.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
    Well that is my biggest concern.

    One thing I would say is we did see a bit of this in the early days of the 2017 campaign, but it died quite quickly. And it seemed last time to be a weird we quite like the MayBot. This time it seems first and foremost like anger at Brexit not being delivered and / or we can't go on like this.

    We are now only 7 days away from polling day.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
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    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    :lol:
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    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    They can then start selling babies to hungry Tories with drive-ins too.
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    "Verted!"

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    Shhhhhhh don’t give away our secret plans.
    We're all PB Tories here.... aren't we?

    :o
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
    What will a Boris government do for the poor?
    Not bankrupt the country and keep the economy going?
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    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
    Well that is my biggest concern.

    One thing I would say is we did see a bit of this in the early days of the 2017 campaign, but it died quite quickly. And it seemed last time to be a weird we quite like the MayBot. This time it seems like anger at Brexit not being delivered.

    We are now only 7 days away from polling day.
    Virtually 6
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    Labour's problem is that voting Tory starts becoming a habit...

    Sure Johnson will likely go backwards from where he is in a week's time but he won't lose all the voters from this election next time round. The NHS won't have been sold off to the Yanks so that'll be something Labour will have trouble getting traction on next time round.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
    What will a Boris government do for the poor?
    Give them hope that they will not be forever poor.

    Labour locks people into poverty by enslaving them to the State. Labour loves the poor as without the poor they have no reason for being. Labour doesn’t solve the problem. It perpetuates it for its own existence. The more State slaves it creates the stronger it becomes.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
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    RobD said:

    How many days until we can privatise the NHS?

    **Sunil whistles innocently**

    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/film-the-great-nhs-heist-tickets-83236800511?aff=erelexpmlt
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    alb1on said:

    speedy2 said:

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
    Immigration has become a significant factor in Wrexham, but because no-one is allowed to talk about it the effects have been hidden until now.
    What other town have a similar untalked-about immigration issue? Wales? England? Are they also going to see two in five of Labour's 2017 voters go walkabout?
    Immigration is a huge factor in Guildford. We rely on the Polish community for competent plumbers and electricians. :)
    ..... in order that we can avoid paying self employed traders a rate for the job that's more than a small fraction of our own salaries.
    Well said.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
    Well that is my biggest concern.

    One thing I would say is we did see a bit of this in the early days of the 2017 campaign, but it died quite quickly. And it seemed last time to be a weird we quite like the MayBot. This time it seems like anger at Brexit not being delivered.

    We are now only 7 days away from polling day.
    There's no way so many lifelong Labour voters would go on TV and admit publicly to voting Tory then going into the polling booth and changing their mind. There was real conviction in the statements I heard, both for Brexit and for their loathing of the White Angel.
  • Options
    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    The Tories don't need a massive swing there.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
  • Options
    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    No but no point being shrinking violets if the voters give us a majority either
  • Options
    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    All this stuff about constituency MPs, local factors, tactical voting, it does all occur, but it is overwhelmingly the case people vote for that leader bloke / woman.
    But in this election the appeal of Boris differs greatly by area. He is poison in large parts of the home counties.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Yes I saw the 70 page document laying out in detail the disgusting racism at the heart of the party... oh wait that's Labour
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Hang on a moment, I don't quite follow this. If Bors wins enough of those voters he wins the election, and that is at a shameful cost. But if he does not win enough of those voters then those voters, whose votes are shameful to win due to what it takes to win their vote(?), will have voted for other parties, making their win shameful too?

    I'm worried about a Boris government, especially one with a big majority, but I'm not understanding that his winning by winning seats the party never has before (or not for along time) is a terrible cost.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
    The GE2015 thread shows what a shy, retiring sort PB Tories are.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    This is a rather silly post. Why are we driven to make everything a battle and demonise our opponents? Would it not be simpler to work to develop vaccines that do not use mercury? Whether harmful or safe in miniscule quantities, it can hardly be called a desirable ingredient can it?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    No but no point being shrinking violets if the voters give us a majority either
    Hard Brexit here we come.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    The Tories don't need a massive swing there.
    a) BXP b) parachuted in tory c) Mary Creagh is Harry Houdini's great niece.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
    Well that is my biggest concern.

    One thing I would say is we did see a bit of this in the early days of the 2017 campaign, but it died quite quickly. And it seemed last time to be a weird we quite like the MayBot. This time it seems like anger at Brexit not being delivered.

    We are now only 7 days away from polling day.
    There's no way so many lifelong Labour voters would go on TV and admit publicly to voting Tory then going into the polling booth and changing their mind. There was real conviction in the statements I heard, both for Brexit and for their loathing of the White Angel.
    Well in 2017 we had all those flat cap Fred's in the working men's clubs saying I like the Maybot, I think I am going to vote for her.

    What I would say is, these people are pissed, really pissed. I don't think any amount of bribes are going to cut through with them, when your policy isn't seen to be Brexit.

    Now perhaps the Maomentum crew can con enough of them into thinking that Labour is Brexit, like Ed Miliband's dishonest leaflets.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
    To be honest so many will be hurting it will be enough for me to see a good working majority and start the slow task of healing with understanding
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
    The GE2015 thread shows what a shy, retiring sort PB Tories are.
    We aren't the sort of people who go around chortling and tittering...
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
    Tories have a 15% lead in Wrexham

    People seem to be overstating the chances of a hung Parliament and understing the chance of a tory landslide.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    This is a rather silly post. Why are we driven to make everything a battle and demonise our opponents? Would it not be simpler to work to develop vaccines that do not use mercury? Whether harmful or safe in miniscule quantities, it can hardly be called a desirable ingredient can it?
    If it is safe then why would it be undesirable? What would it matter?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited December 2019
    Finally, Scottish constituency polls. There is a god :o

    Edit: still won't buy a paper :p
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    All this stuff about constituency MPs, local factors, tactical voting, it does all occur, but it is overwhelmingly the case people vote for that leader bloke / woman.
    But in this election the appeal of Boris differs greatly by area. He is poison in large parts of the home counties.
    You saying people on here choose to point to Wrexham rather than Portsmouth? But that’s what elections are about, parading converts, the right poll is the one you most like.
    Something will have to give, the polls or the trend. Tories have every right to be nervous, as the ones in the lead in the polls, the ones who need a majority not well hung parliament, with trend of previous elections against them. In the seats you need The voters stuck by their incumbent labour MP in 2010, also in 2015 and 2017 where Labour gained seats in England, it was Scottish crash that cost them. Now these voters will junk the incumbent to vote for a right wing Tory and buck the trend, a trend that can only be bucked by convincing people you are a fresh start, not continuation of same government presiding over years of pain and mess.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Hang on a moment, I don't quite follow this. If Bors wins enough of those voters he wins the election, and that is at a shameful cost. But if he does not win enough of those voters then those voters, whose votes are shameful to win due to what it takes to win their vote(?), will have voted for other parties, making their win shameful too?

    I'm worried about a Boris government, especially one with a big majority, but I'm not understanding that his winning by winning seats the party never has before (or not for along time) is a terrible cost.
    Eh? Winning additional seats isn’t the cost, it’s the selling out to a populist Trumpian agenda to do it that incurs the cost.
  • Options
    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    HYUFD said:

    Criticised for not doing the hustings, criticised for doing the hustings and saying something you don't like.

    Tory candidates can't win
    Not a reasonable comparison. She is being criticised for a view which is little different to the racism of certain parts of both Labour and Conservatives, except that in this case the target of her bigotry is a particularly disadvantaged group in society. She deserves to be ostracised by decent people.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Yes we could have kept May or replaced her with Hunt and failed to win a majority again graciously and gentlemanly.

    Or we could win a majority ruthlessly targeting the white working class as the GOP and Trump have done and keep Corbyn out of No 10.

    There was no alternative but the latter
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,229

    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    This is a rather silly post. Why are we driven to make everything a battle and demonise our opponents? Would it not be simpler to work to develop vaccines that do not use mercury? Whether harmful or safe in miniscule quantities, it can hardly be called a desirable ingredient can it?
    I thought the Mercury claim had been debunked.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Will vote or have already?
    Some have with postal votes, yes. But still remarkable to hear, even a relatively small sample size. Exactly the same as what I've been hearing in Dudley North. The white working class are flocking to Boris.
    And sadly the white working class will pay a bitter price in due course if the lying jester wins. It will unravel, possibly very quickly and it will not be pretty.
    They won't, they will get Brexit and the new immigration controls they want, a higher national insurance and more money for the NHS, the police and schools
    And not be patronised by the London socialist elites who think they know what is best for the “poor”.
    What will a Boris government do for the poor?
    Give them hope that they will not be forever poor.

    Labour locks people into poverty by enslaving them to the State. Labour loves the poor as without the poor they have no reason for being. Labour doesn’t solve the problem. It perpetuates it for its own existence. The more State slaves it creates the stronger it becomes.
    Sorry but this does not match my experience. Having been on benefits following life changing accident, which I survived thanks to the NHS, I was initially supported then retrained, found new employment and went on to have a successful career contributing back a lot of taxes along the way.

    Nobody was looking to make a 'state slave' out of me.
  • Options

    twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202724180644564997

    I take everything Lewis says with a mountain of salt. The biggest problem those that think it will make a massive difference will see Boris tomorrow doing a debate and then wall to wall coverage of that for the next day or so.

    So even those undecided that didn't really think about the fact he hadn't done it, will then be huh there is he taking questions.
  • Options
    nunu2 said:

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
    Tories have a 15% lead in Wrexham

    People seem to be overstating the chances of a hung Parliament and understing the chance of a tory landslide.
    I forsee turbulence in all directions, and a Tory majority, but not a landslide.

    However, I will bow to the wisdom of the great Curtice (pbuh) this time next week. He's the only one we can really trust.
  • Options
    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    The Economist endorses the Lib Dems

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/12/05/britains-nightmare-before-christmas?frsc=dg|e

    Probably not going to influence too many constituencies outside the City and Westminster.

    Was it the gender neutral school uniforms?
    I do not understand the LD focus on this issue. Boris has supported them since he was at Eton, wearing a black nightgown and frilly collar.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Yes we could have kept May or replaced her with Hunt and failed to win a majority again graciously and gentlemanly.

    Or we could win a majority ruthlessly targeting the white working class as the GOP and Trump have done and keep Corbyn out of No 10.

    There was no alternative but the latter
    Given the promises you’ve made, you’ll find governing hard. The election is the easy bit.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    RobD said:

    Finally, Scottish constituency polls. There is a god :o

    Edit: still won't buy a paper :p
    Oh, it's a Scotland-wide poll. False alarm :(

    (KLAXON on standby)
  • Options

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
    To be honest so many will be hurting it will be enough for me to see a good working majority and start the slow task of healing with understanding
    One of the buffoon's first acts if he does fluke a win is he should get Ken Clarke in the Lords asap and back within the tory whip (if he'll take it)...
  • Options
    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    speedy2 said:

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
    Immigration has become a significant factor in Wrexham, but because no-one is allowed to talk about it the effects have been hidden until now.
    What other town have a similar untalked-about immigration issue? Wales? England? Are they also going to see two in five of Labour's 2017 voters go walkabout?
    Immigration is a huge factor in Guildford. We rely on the Polish community for competent plumbers and electricians. :)
    ..... in order that we can avoid paying self employed traders a rate for the job that's more than a small fraction of our own salaries.
    You have obviously never tried to get skilled workers to attend an urgent job in Guildford.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685

    nunu2 said:

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
    Tories have a 15% lead in Wrexham

    People seem to be overstating the chances of a hung Parliament and understing the chance of a tory landslide.
    I forsee turbulence in all directions, and a Tory majority, but not a landslide.

    However, I will bow to the wisdom of the great Curtice (pbuh) this time next week. He's the only one we can really trust.
    Curtice isn't a one man band you know. He works together with Michael Thrasher on Sky News on the exit poll with a team of experts.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    The Newsnight Vox Pops in Wakefield is interesting. People trying to claim this election isn't about Brexit, all of these life Labour voters seem very angry about Brexit having not occurred and believe, even if it is a despite Boris, the Tories are the only ones that will get it done and so will effectively lend them their vote for this time only.

    How many will actually go through with it in the polling booth though? That's the million dollar question.
    Well that is my biggest concern.

    One thing I would say is we did see a bit of this in the early days of the 2017 campaign, but it died quite quickly. And it seemed last time to be a weird we quite like the MayBot. This time it seems like anger at Brexit not being delivered.

    We are now only 7 days away from polling day.
    There's no way so many lifelong Labour voters would go on TV and admit publicly to voting Tory then going into the polling booth and changing their mind. There was real conviction in the statements I heard, both for Brexit and for their loathing of the White Angel.
    Well in 2017 we had all those flat cap Fred's in the working men's clubs saying I like the Maybot, I think I am going to vote for her.

    What I would say is, these people are pissed, really pissed. I don't think any amount of bribes are going to cut through with them, when your policy isn't seen to be Brexit.

    Now perhaps the Maomentum crew can con enough of them into thinking that Labour is Brexit, like Ed Miliband's dishonest leaflets.
    I don't think that's going to work this time. All those folk saw the same news bulletins over and over again of the Labour party - instructed by Mr Corbyn - to vote down the Withdrawal Agreement - in other words, voting against Brexit. Plus I genuinely believe they like Boris enough to vote for him fairly enthusiastically.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    nunu2 said:

    camel said:

    Newsnight is interesting. Regardless, I'll stake my trousers on Lab holding Wakefield.

    If Wakefield goes, it's all going. Earthquake territory.
    Tories have a 15% lead in Wrexham

    People seem to be overstating the chances of a hung Parliament and understing the chance of a tory landslide.
    I forsee turbulence in all directions, and a Tory majority, but not a landslide.

    However, I will bow to the wisdom of the great Curtice (pbuh) this time next week. He's the only one we can really trust.
    I hear Curtice will be getting an hereditary dukedom if he gets the next one right. ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    So you’re emulating Trump. Not something to be hugely proud of really. Winning, but at a cost. Someone has a picture of the true Tory party in the attic. It’s not pretty.
    Hang on a moment, I don't quite follow this. If Bors wins enough of those voters he wins the election, and that is at a shameful cost. But if he does not win enough of those voters then those voters, whose votes are shameful to win due to what it takes to win their vote(?), will have voted for other parties, making their win shameful too?

    I'm worried about a Boris government, especially one with a big majority, but I'm not understanding that his winning by winning seats the party never has before (or not for along time) is a terrible cost.
    Eh? Winning additional seats isn’t the cost, it’s the selling out to a populist Trumpian agenda to do it that incurs the cost.
    Yes, that was my exact point - you think that the votes he is getting to win, selling out to a populist agenda, incurs a cost. But if he doesn't win those enough of those voters who would be swayed by a terrible populist agenda then someone else is winning them over, and you seem to think those voters are bad because they are the sort won who would be won over by a populist trumpian agenda. Was another populist agenda more popular?

    If the problem is a trumpian populist agenda is popular the problem is with the voters more than the agenda. Hence my confusion - its bad for him to receive their votes but ok for others to receive their votes?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nichomar said:

    Posted this too late on previous thread I hope anyone who hasn’t had their children vaccinated against MMR is taking bot of the news from Samoa.

    My son's school currently has quite a serious outbreak of mumps. I was worried for my son momentarily before I remembered that one of the 'M's in MMR stood for mumps so, having his had shots as planned, I believe he should be fine.

    But my next thought was then one of some horror at the implications of these other kids getting mumps which I assume means they never had the MMR.
    Children are a reservoir of disease as it is. Quite why it is that the presence of unvaccinated kids in schools is still tolerated I don't know.
    Were I PM, MMR vaccination would be compulsory for kids to go to school, Andrew Wakefield would be extradited from the US and put in prison for all the harm he has done and people who believe in homeopathy and all this anti-vaccination rubbish should have the vote taken away (and given remedial science classes) as they are clearly too stupid to be allowed out on their own. :)
    This is a rather silly post. Why are we driven to make everything a battle and demonise our opponents? Would it not be simpler to work to develop vaccines that do not use mercury? Whether harmful or safe in miniscule quantities, it can hardly be called a desirable ingredient can it?
    If it is safe then why would it be undesirable? What would it matter?
    Because our knowledge about the interaction between chemicals and the human body over time has not yet reached its zenith, hopefully you agree? Therefore, it would seem to be sensible to remove an ingredient that we know to be deadly in large amounts, from an immunisation injection. I find it odd that medical science cannot solve this issue, and all the medical establishment can do is shout at people even louder.
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    Has Corbyn announced if the Woolwich footie lads are to be nationalised yet?
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    I see the bbc are being their usual yawn inducing egotistical self again. It’s a black dog sitting on the shoulder of the nation, draining the optimism out of you, trying to twist how you think every day from when your radio alarm goes off to when you drift off on the sofa at night to some shitty comedy panel.

    Life really is sweeter when you don’t have a license and you instead consume media entirely actively rather than passively.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    Wow lifelong Labour voters queuing up on Newnight to say they have voted for Boris.

    Notice they say they have voted for Boris not for the Tories.

    Boris has a Trump like appeal to the white working class
    No .

    He has Boris appeal and I am very surprised how he is winning so many over

    I am not calling it a majority yet but if it is a good majority I will be the first to congratulate you on predicting it, especially as my previous doubts
    Thank you.

    Trump appealed to the white working class in a way no Republican had since Reagan and won states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania too not won by the GOP since the 1980s.

    I think Boris is going to win seats that have not gone Tory since Thatcher if ever
    I hope you are right but if Boris wins well we need humility and to become one nation conservatives as said by Boris today. No triumphalism please
    Not even a little bit?

    Harrumph.

    :p
    To be honest so many will be hurting it will be enough for me to see a good working majority and start the slow task of healing with understanding
    One of the buffoon's first acts if he does fluke a win is he should get Ken Clarke in the Lords asap and back within the tory whip (if he'll take it)...
    It would be a potential signal of intent. But he seems a vindictive sort, and Clarke has not endorsed him. Boris remembers that sort of thing.
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    Berger:

    "For me, the issue of racism is fundamental. I left the Labour Party because I consider it a racist endeavour. I could no longer, in good faith, knock on doors and say vote for me, and by extension get Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. "
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    Posted by the Times on Twitter. Hard to read at this resolution.

    Looks like 42/33 GB wide and Tories on 28 in Scotland.
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    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    speedy2 said:

    kle4 said:

    One of the areas that flattered to deceive last time IIRC. Do you believe that poll?
    The Labour vote in Wrexham is down over 40% in two and a half years......

    That's a blood-bath in a blood-bank.
    True, and due to shift in the nature and geography of the Labour membership, working class Labour should become weaker and weaker in exchange for it becoming stronger among "limousine liberals" and "champagne socialists" like in America.
    But there are far fewer ultra rich people in Europe and the UK in order to form an electoral base.

    Also neoliberalism based on a coalition of poor immigrants and the rich is unstable because the immigrants might ask for a raise in pay.
    Immigration has become a significant factor in Wrexham, but because no-one is allowed to talk about it the effects have been hidden until now.
    What other town have a similar untalked-about immigration issue? Wales? England? Are they also going to see two in five of Labour's 2017 voters go walkabout?
    Immigration is a huge factor in Guildford. We rely on the Polish community for competent plumbers and electricians. :)
    ..... in order that we can avoid paying self employed traders a rate for the job that's more than a small fraction of our own salaries.
    Well said.
    If you believe that £50-£60 per hour for labour is poor pay you must be doing pretty well yourself.
This discussion has been closed.