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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to Think the Unthinkable?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to Think the Unthinkable?
“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”
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https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
If there's a hung parliament, Lab WILL form a minority.
If there's a hung parliament and Lab call a vote of no confidence in Johnson, they will win (with LD, SNP, and SDLP, ALL, PC, and GRN and IND (E Devon?) ... and Boris is out.
Then, in that 14 days that follow, Johnson can't win another VONC, thus Corbyn will be asked to form a gov.
If Con call a VONC in Corbyn, Corbyn will win - it will fall to how the LDs vote. They will likely abstain and Lab stay in, with a minority, subject to the LD and SNP etc... moderating.
I very much doubt LD would vote against Lab in the second VONC, as they would lose the opportunity of a referendum and would be seen as the spoilers (Brexit and Tory enablers) in the resulting election and be destroyed even more than 2015.
In the event of a hung parliament, Johnson can't retain support, Corbyn will with huge caveats and moderation.
Lab will present a careful budget, subject to meeting the requirements of LD, SNP, and others to ensure it passes (i.e. that LD abstain, and SNP and others pass).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7740589/Roman-Catholic-leaders-tell-followers-candidates-uphold-rights-unborn-children.html
I may have missed the Unions vowing to fight those massive Labour job cuts
Even if they voted against Corbyn,
a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10
b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play).
In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial.
Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed...
So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
Do you have school age children?
Even if you don't you should be at least aware of several reports going back to the last Labour government of the strains on the system caused by mass immigration.
Unless you want to claim all of those were racist too?
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-dup-will-not-support-labour-under-jeremy-corbyn-11873951
If therefore Johnson gets within 20-odd, Corbyn can’t form a government without the ACTIVE support of the Liberal Democrats, which I don’t think he will get.
Try not to confuse wishful thinking with analysis.
Apart from a Corbyn government obviously
a) numbers are very tight and DUP go with Johnson and against Corbyn - is that likely? Abstain on both more likely. Unless they force Johnson's hand (if they have the numbers) and he changes Brexit withdrawal agreement again, then what with the EU?
and/or
b) LD vote against Corbyn rather than abstaining... which might lead to their demolition in the resulting election (from disappointed Remainers, and disappointed anti-Tories)
Do you bother to read replies to your posts?
Annoyingly, the sun’s gone in so I can’t heat the house off the sunroom at the moment.
Bit like no one works for British Home Stores anymore but plenty of people now work for Primark.
Corbyn clearly cannot command the confidence of the house unless there is a Labour majority. The question is, would he stand aside for another? Again, probably not as he has repeatedly ruled it out.
Yes I do read replies. I was writing that post before I'd seen the reply. The website doesn't update instantly as you're writing....
I'm glad Tories are finally campaigning on immigration.
But what really gets me is you seem to be trying to link anti-racism and combatting terrorism, which is shockingly naive. Remind me, how many Polish terrorists have we had? Chinese? Indian Hindus? Are you saying they've never experienced racism?
What has Labour done for the NHS in Labour ruled Wales?
I can say for certain, that the NHS in Wales is poorly run, gives a poorer service and some places even corrupt. When compared to England.
They will never ever get it. The right can promise big spending but the left are too afraid to utter the words "controlled immigration".
So in other words, he cares for the poor and the needy as much as the Tories do. Which is 'we don't give a Fk in reality'. At least the Tories are upfront about it.
Many have already left, incidentally.
It is pure bigotry and xenophobia to imply that EU citizens are not taxpayers and that educating their children is a burden.
Liverpool are going to have to decide which games to lose and which competitions they want to win or they may fall flat on their face.
Stop talking crap
It makes it very difficult for both the Conservatives to win seats and the Conservatives to lose seats, the national swing required almost doubles in both cases.
With an identical voting result (43-41) as last time the Conservatives would be short by 14 (312 seats assuming 5 less due to tactical voting).
So what matters for a PM Corbyn to be installed is the DUP and the other Irish parties (UUP, SDLP ect), a repeat election in February would be more likely than usual.
And then they can't say they weren't warned when the bill for Labour's promises comes due.
If LAB win you will have to sell your Spanish hacienda 😊
"I want to us to understand the details of this and the questions that need to be asked about how decisions are made on release and how risks are assessed on that basis."
I'm a bit unsure whether she's saying she doesn't understand how decisions are made about releasing people on licence and thinks she ought to, or what.
Thank you for your article. I find increasing gossip concerning a hung parliament baffling since I think ConMaj is the most probable outcome, but reality does not bend to me so I have to consider the possibility. So thank you for the info.
However, I note you do stuff on ah.com. With that in mind may I present perhaps the least-read non-political timeline ever, which was left unfinished due to illness.
Other readers may also wish to peruse probably the best-written political timeline, one of the writers of which (not me!) is I believe an occasional contributor here
The Tories really need to start getting their act together - and fast - before one of the biggest nightmares this country has ever faced starts becoming a reality.
1.They started their campaign 8 days after everyone else.
2.Their campaign head is a foreigner from the other side of the world.
3.The decision to debate Corbyn one on one.
4.The the Labour manifesto being a huge success again.
5.The Conservative manifesto being a huge dud again.
On point 5, the Conservative manifesto is so empty it can fit on the back of a small card.
On point 2, it's always a bad sign when your campaign is headed by a non local (see Jim Messina).
Until the New Year is insane with fixtures but if we can get through to the New Year with a healthy cushion and hopefully a second trophy this season already then the run to the end of the season could be very interesting.
The Reds have one trophy and are still in five competitions. That has to be unprecedented by this stage if think?
Bloody cold out there today. The pile of leaflets is still depressingly large.
Off to brave the cold winds some more. I may be gone some while....
I had my saucer of milk this morning ready for mega polling saturday quipping
That could change, of course.
Saying they're not old now is like suggesting if we borrow money we are making money because we suddenly have more of it - while ignoring the interest to be paid in the future.
The future cost of healthcare and pensions needs to be accounted for today in any cost/benefit analysis.
Considering you need to be European Champions to end the Club World Cup I can understand why other clubs may not think of that one.
EU citizens that have lived in the UK during their working lives and then retire here will have paid tax just like anyone else.
We definitely get PM Corbyn if Lab + SNP beats Con + DUP.
But we could possibly get PM Corbyn so long as Lab are within about X of Con where X is about 50. Ish.
As has already been mentioned below actually many of the EU citizens who would not be eligible to work in the UK assuming some points based system for are quite possibly not net taxpayers.
If stating facts is now beyond the pale then we are in some Orwellian nightmare.
I mistook the FTPA process (not least because it is not actually written in the Act or elsewhere, it is by convention, and it is not universally agreed, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/08/28/what-happens-after-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-the-pm-a-route-map/ but even there it accepts that it is a grey area in general)
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9.
Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat).
DUP will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4)
Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP numbers...
Pensions are paid by the country people worked in and paid taxes too. So if our citizens retire to Spain we still pay their pensions. If other nations citizens come to work here we will pay their pensions.
The pensions must be paid due to the taxes that have been paid. So you can't ignore pensions because someone is young and working - as long as they are working they are accruing future pension and healthcare entitlements.
Any cost benefit analysis of taxes and benefits should include future post retirement costs like end of life healthcare and pensions. Ignoring that is like ignoring interest payments.
What time are these polls out?
In any case, they have ruled it out with sufficient vigour I don’t think they could resile.