Was out yesterday in E&W canvassing neighbouring roads to my own. As Sean Fear has said, you get a pretty good idea of your own performance but not the opposition. If correct, Raab will poll well over 50% vote and win comfortably albeit with a sharply reduced majority.
To be honest we all have the occasional rant but can we wind back the triumphalist kaboom shite and actually talk sensibly about information as it develops. The tories are going to win and win big labour are going to crash and burn and my team may get twenty seats but it is a bit unedifying reading some of the partisan party posts that are made. There will be winners and losers on 12/12 and some people who have given their lives to fight for their principles will get it in the crotch, others without having done anything to justify them winning will be sitting pretty. Whilst we have a system that has candidates chosen by a few hundred party members we will get sub optimal people, while we have a system that allows someone to represent 80,000 people with 35% of the vote it will be sub optimal but so what you lot are fine if your team are winning.
Deltapoll national poll is coming tonight, apparently it's "fascinating"
Are you paid to ramp these things If Comres is showing nice swing to a Tories there is no chance tonight’s polling showing trend for labour escaping last Saturday eves poll meltdown to near meltdown
Whilst everyone winds themselves up on here about polls, rumours, closing gaps, the genius of WASPI (whilst still being a week and a half out), the Tory campaign doesnt seem to be panicking much. Despite being non existent, if they were worried, surely we'd be seeing some panic bungs?
Look where the Leaders are campaigning. BoZo in the supposedly safe Devon and Cornwall...
Travelling through Portsmouth on return from France last year was interesting. The housing is very high density there, if it was in the north of the country it would be amazingly safe for Labour.
People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.
People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".
For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.
You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.
Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.
Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.
It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.
Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.
You'll then walk it.
You clearly missed the MRP and the betting markets. Even if Boris does manage miraculously not to win a majority, we are going to be in hung parliament territory. We will end up with an EURef 2 and that is a very good thing indeed. Well worth voting for.
But sadly that is not what is going to happen.
Far more likely is a hard Brexit in 12 months and five years of right-wing rhetoric and populist bullshit as the economy slowly disappears down the toilet.
I've got over £1,000 on this election, mate. How much have you got?
I don't bet based on what the polls at a moment in time tell me: I try and read the election and the underlying trends. That is plainly a hung parliament.
We won't get EURef2 in a hung Parliament. There won't be the votes for it. So we'll get No Deal instead.
We won't get a Hard Brexit in 12 months time either. We'll get a close collaborative deal with the EU, provided Boris has a decent enough majority so he can isolate his nutters.
I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.
Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.
SNIP
Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.
But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.
Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.
A real true visceral fear.
I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.
In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
SNIP
I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
You disgust me.
Get a life
Fuck off Malcolm.
You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
I don't remember that one, but doubt it was about the SNP, independence perhaps, but hey I am in a great mood , Christmas trees up today , having a beer and just waiting on my sirloin steak , fried onions and triple cooked chips coming up , with a nice Shiraz, probably watch the Irishman later and have a nice cognac nightcap. Better things to worry about than which of Johnson or Corbyn is the biggest arsehole, chill out or you will burst a gasket.
I had that as Con/Lab/LD 38/33/26 This poll is 38/46/11 It looks as if LDs are voting tactically for Labour in greater numbers than I'd assumed. I'll make a small adjustment; 35% of LDs will vote tactically for Labour if LD vote last time was less than half the Labour vote. Impact - Tory majority of 4. NB YouGov had 49% of LDs willing to tactically vote for Labour.
Very. Signs there of LD tactical switching to Labour, and the Brexit Candidate not making much difference.
It has occurred to me that one explanation for the poor polling by the LDs nationally may be that in many constituencies it makes sense for their supporters to switch behind Labour. The number where the reverse applies would be relatively small. So the 13% the LDs are currently polling may belie a greater impact when the real count happens.
Lot of guesswork there, but it's not implausible.
It is a very studenty seat, and is one of the few seats that the MRP had the labour share going up whilst showing a Tory majority of 68.
People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.
People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".
For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.
You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.
Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.
Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.
It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.
Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.
You'll then walk it.
You clearly missed the MRP and the betting markets. Even if Boris does manage miraculously not to win a majority, we are going to be in hung parliament territory. We will end up with an EURef 2 and that is a very good thing indeed. Well worth voting for.
But sadly that is not what is going to happen.
Far more likely is a hard Brexit in 12 months and five years of right-wing rhetoric and populist bullshit as the economy slowly disappears down the toilet.
I've got over £1,000 on this election, mate. How much have you got?
I don't bet based on what the polls at a moment in time tell me: I try and read the election and the underlying trends. That is plainly a hung parliament.
We won't get EURef2 in a hung Parliament. There won't be the votes for it. So we'll get No Deal instead.
We won't get a Hard Brexit in 12 months time either. We'll get a close collaborative deal with the EU, provided Boris has a decent enough majority so he can isolate his nutters.
I don't think it is, I'm still fairly confident we're heading for a ~60 seat majority.
YouGov MRP looking good, especially with Portsmouth South staying Labour against the odds. Probably means they're also correct about Labour holding Canterbury and Leeds North West.
No, I'm bang on. And my contempt extends to you ten-fold (I actually like Jonathan) because you're campaigning for the c**t. If he gets into Downing Street you have blood on your hands. I won't let you forget it.
Interesting to see a big swing to the Tories in that type of seat. It may be possible to extrapolate from Berwick to other seats with the same characteristics.
I had that as Con/Lab/LD 38/33/26 This poll is 38/46/11 It looks as if LDs are voting tactically for Labour in greater numbers than I'd assumed. I'll make a small adjustment; 35% of LDs will vote tactically for Labour if LD vote last time was less than half the Labour vote. Impact - Tory majority of 4. NB YouGov had 49% of LDs willing to tactically vote for Labour.
Good for the Tories there are very few seats like that where the Lib Dem’s start on 20%, demographics definitely trending away from Tories in University seats like this
Very. Signs there of LD tactical switching to Labour, and the Brexit Candidate not making much difference.
It has occurred to me that one explanation for the poor polling by the LDs nationally may be that in many constituencies it makes sense for their supporters to switch behind Labour. The number where the reverse applies would be relatively small. So the 13% the LDs are currently polling may belie a greater impact when the real count happens.
Lot of guesswork there, but it's not implausible.
Yep - the Portsmouth South polling may indicate that constituencies like Warwick & Leamington could also still be winnable for Labour.
Esher & Walton: Deltapoll: Con 46, LD 41, Lab 9. YouGov MRP: Con 49, LD 38, Lab 11, Oth 2.
Beaconsfield: Deltapoll: Con 53, Ind Grieve 36, Lab 24, Grn 3. YouGov MRP: Con 56, Ind Grieve 28, Lab 12, Grn 4.
It’s reasonable to assume a good poll with a decent sample is going to be more accurate in a single seat that a model that works from national assumptions and demography. These examples illustrate the MRP’s weakness in “unusual” seats where there is an Indy or a particularly spirited local campaign. In particular that the LDs are within reach of E&W in the poll suggests the LibDems may yet overachieve compared to the MRP.
Travelling through Portsmouth on return from France last year was interesting. The housing is very high density there, if it was in the north of the country it would be amazingly safe for Labour.
As well as (or because of) being Britain’s only island city, Portsmouth has one of the highest densities as you say, and also a particularly low proportion of open space for an urban area.
More evidence for my contention that Patel is far more liberal than the pantomine authoritarian she is portrayed to be.
For once I agree with her, and whilst I hope it doesn't come to it we may one day have to be very welcoming to the people of Hong Kong who want to leave.
Was out yesterday in E&W canvassing neighbouring roads to my own. As Sean Fear has said, you get a pretty good idea of your own performance but not the opposition. If correct, Raab will poll well over 50% vote and win comfortably albeit with a sharply reduced majority.
Possibly completely off topic but was listening to the football broadcast fro a US tv station which was running adverts about how to restructure student and reduce payments the numbers were horrific, success was reducing it to $600 a month repayment. Is this where we are headed?
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
1.5% swing tbf
That might settle a few nerves
Annoyingly, it arrived 2 minutes after I gave in and bought insurance in Tory 300-309 and 310-319 bands. Still, it’s cheap enough to make not doing it silly.
I’m green on anything over 300. I just can’t believe they could go sub-300 with Lib Dems doing so poorly. If the gap narrows I may be forced to pick up 290-299 - but I don’t want to.
Travelling through Portsmouth on return from France last year was interesting. The housing is very high density there, if it was in the north of the country it would be amazingly safe for Labour.
As well as (or because of) being Britain’s only island city, Portsmouth has one of the highest densities as you say, and also a particularly low proportion of open space for an urban area.
Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.
Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
So what, free tuition is unaffordable without suicidal tax increases and even amongst 20 year olds 60 to 70% do not go to university anyway and should not have to subsidise the 30% that do and those who do go and study subjects that will get a well paid job e.g. economics, business, corporate law, physics, engineering etc will still end up Tories on the whole by middle age.
As I've been saying the Conservative party is in denial about student debt.
You never learn do you.
Neither do you it seems, free tuition paid for by the working class through tax rises would be electoral suicide for the Tories
It’s right that the government finances university education because it is a public good. But the cost should be negotiated directly with universities (as a budget process) rather than allowing them to charge fees. However this should be interest free In addition (example numbers) if you pay basic rate tax only I would allow £2k or so to be offset against the loan. Finally for selected careers - eg nursing - you might give a £1k tax free write off against debt for each year that you work for the NHS
Mmm My model has Con 61% LD 34% Lab 6% for Esher. LDs doing well in consistency poll. Not grounds for an adjustment of tactical voting though.
The YouGov MRP is a *LOT* closer to Deltapoll than that. In fact, there's broad agreement between the YouGov model and the Deltapoll results across all five constituencies, as per the following. I've included next to the Deltapoll figures the percentage differences between them and the results indicated by the YouGov model:
Deltapoll: Con 46% (-3%) LD 41% (+3%) Lab 9% (-2%)
YouGov: Con 49% LD 38% Lab 11%
Berwick upon Tweed
Deltapoll: Con 60% (+7%) LD 20% (-4%) Lab 17% (-3%) Green 2% (-2%)
YouGov: Con 53% LD 24% Lab 20% Green 4%
Beaconsfield
Deltapoll: Con 53% (-3%) Grieve 36% (+8%) Lab 7% (-5%) Green 1% (-3%)
YouGov: Con 56% Grieve 28% Lab 12% Green 4%
South West Herts
Deltapoll: Con 50% (+4%) Lab 17% (+2%) Gauke 16% (-4%) LD 13% (-3%) Green 2% (-1%)
YouGov: Con 46% Gauke 20% LD 16% Lab 15% Green 3%
In terms of the Deltapoll versus YouGov differences, I can't see any consistent patterns for Lab, Con or LD, notably anything that might indicate that the YouGov model may be overstating the Tories and understating Labour (such a thing may indeed be occurring, and might be apparent if we had a lot more constituency data, but there's nothing from these Deltapoll numbers to suggest that it is.) This represents welcome news for the Tories.
First reaction nah. More labour voters now than then? Laughable. Second reaction, they are squeezing Lib Dem’s where it matters most.
Portsmouth South has changed considerably. It now has a very middle class area full of civil servants, a huge student population and a large migrant community. This brings me to a question. Are the huge labour votes in such student heavy areas coming from students who won’t be there during election time and, if this is the case, does this not destabilise the electoral picture?
Travelling through Portsmouth on return from France last year was interesting. The housing is very high density there, if it was in the north of the country it would be amazingly safe for Labour.
Being, essentially, an island it is rather cramped but a great city. More like a northern city than anywhere else I know in the south
Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.
Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
So what, free tuition is unaffordable without suicidal tax increases and even amongst 20 year olds 60 to 70% do not go to university anyway and should not have to subsidise the 30% that do and those who do go and study subjects that will get a well paid job e.g. economics, business, corporate law, physics, engineering etc will still end up Tories on the whole by middle age.
As I've been saying the Conservative party is in denial about student debt.
You never learn do you.
Neither do you it seems, free tuition paid for by the working class through tax rises would be electoral suicide for the Tories
It’s right that the government finances university education because it is a public good. But the cost should be negotiated directly with universities (as a budget process) rather than allowing them to charge fees. However this should be interest free In addition (example numbers) if you pay basic rate tax only I would allow £2k or so to be offset against the loan. Finally for selected careers - eg nursing - you might give a £1k tax free write off against debt for each year that you work for the NHS
1) When I went to uni the % going was about 15-18%. Now its 50+%. We cannot justify that to be free and paid for from the taxes of people who don't go - it's not fair. The recent government report on higher education showed too many students on courses who don't benefit and who will not pay back their loans. Reduce fees on the courses with good payback / public benefit on a means tested basis - kids from poorer backgrounds get less debt. 2) Nursing should not be a degree subject. If it is then reduce the fees and have a write off period if they do X years in the NHS. 3) Doctors should have golden handcuffs. The training cost is enormous. No going to Australia / Nz / Canada / USA / other until X years service completed in the NHS or else your registration is revoked.
First reaction nah. More labour voters now than then? Laughable. Second reaction, they are squeezing Lib Dem’s where it matters most.
Portsmouth South has changed considerably. It now has a very middle class area full of civil servants, a huge student population and a large migrant community. This brings me to a question. Are the huge labour votes in such student heavy areas coming from students who won’t be there during election time and, if this is the case, does this not destabilise the electoral picture?
That is CCHQ's hope, which is why the party fought so strenuously for the Thursday election rather than Monday or the previous week.
First reaction nah. More labour voters now than then? Laughable. Second reaction, they are squeezing Lib Dem’s where it matters most.
Portsmouth South has changed considerably. It now has a very middle class area full of civil servants, a huge student population and a large migrant community. This brings me to a question. Are the huge labour votes in such student heavy areas coming from students who won’t be there during election time and, if this is the case, does this not destabilise the electoral picture?
That is CCHQ's hope, which is why the party fought so strenuously for the Thursday election rather than Monday or the previous week.
To be honest we all have the occasional rant but can we wind back the triumphalist kaboom shite and actually talk sensibly about information as it develops. The tories are going to win and win big labour are going to crash and burn and my team may get twenty seats but it is a bit unedifying reading some of the partisan party posts that are made. There will be winners and losers on 12/12 and some people who have given their lives to fight for their principles will get it in the crotch, others without having done anything to justify them winning will be sitting pretty. Whilst we have a system that has candidates chosen by a few hundred party members we will get sub optimal people, while we have a system that allows someone to represent 80,000 people with 35% of the vote it will be sub optimal but so what you lot are fine if your team are winning.
Every student should get the chance to leave home and have their oats for a while, but many degrees could be covered in a year. Sadly the whole uni thing, student flats, refurbs etc., has turned into another vast debt-fuelled bubble.
Comments
Portsmouth South:
Deltapoll: Lab 46, Con 38, LD 11, BRX 2.
YouGov MRP: Lab 42, Con 35, LD 16, BRX 6, Oth 2.
Esher & Walton:
Deltapoll: Con 46, LD 41, Lab 9.
YouGov MRP: Con 49, LD 38, Lab 11, Oth 2.
Beaconsfield:
Deltapoll: Con 53, Ind Grieve 36, Lab 24, Grn 3.
YouGov MRP: Con 56, Ind Grieve 28, Lab 12, Grn 4.
If Comres is showing nice swing to a Tories there is no chance tonight’s polling showing trend for labour escaping last Saturday eves poll meltdown to near meltdown
We need Workington Bolsover Don Valley not bloody Berwick
I don't bet based on what the polls at a moment in time tell me: I try and read the election and the underlying trends. That is plainly a hung parliament.
We won't get EURef2 in a hung Parliament. There won't be the votes for it. So we'll get No Deal instead.
We won't get a Hard Brexit in 12 months time either. We'll get a close collaborative deal with the EU, provided Boris has a decent enough majority so he can isolate his nutters.
Con: -4, +3, -7, +3, -3
Lab: -2, +5, +3, +2, -4
in the following order:
South West Hertfordshire
Beaconsfield
Berwick upon Tweed
Esher & Walton
Portsmouth South
This poll is 38/46/11
It looks as if LDs are voting tactically for Labour in greater numbers than I'd assumed. I'll make a small adjustment; 35% of LDs will vote tactically for Labour if LD vote last time was less than half the Labour vote. Impact - Tory majority of 4.
NB YouGov had 49% of LDs willing to tactically vote for Labour.
Oh. 🙎
NEW THREAD
Con 46, Ind Gauke 20, LD 16, Lab 15, Grn 3.
As well as (or because of) being Britain’s only island city, Portsmouth has one of the highest densities as you say, and also a particularly low proportion of open space for an urban area.
The more Tory votes get wasted in places like Berwick, the better. More seats elsewhere where their vote will take a tumble.
I’m green on anything over 300. I just can’t believe they could go sub-300 with Lib Dems doing so poorly. If the gap narrows I may be forced to pick up 290-299 - but I don’t want to.
To the Tory share 😂
However this should be interest free
In addition (example numbers) if you pay basic rate tax only I would allow £2k or so to be offset against the loan.
Finally for selected careers - eg nursing - you might give a £1k tax free write off against debt for each year that you work for the NHS
Deltapoll versus YouGov MRP
Portsmouth South
Deltapoll:
Lab 46% (+4%)
Con 38% (+3%)
LD 11% (-5%)
Brex 2% (-4%)
YouGov:
Lab 42%
Con 35%
LD 16%
Brex 6%
Esher & Walton
Deltapoll:
Con 46% (-3%)
LD 41% (+3%)
Lab 9% (-2%)
YouGov:
Con 49%
LD 38%
Lab 11%
Berwick upon Tweed
Deltapoll:
Con 60% (+7%)
LD 20% (-4%)
Lab 17% (-3%)
Green 2% (-2%)
YouGov:
Con 53%
LD 24%
Lab 20%
Green 4%
Beaconsfield
Deltapoll:
Con 53% (-3%)
Grieve 36% (+8%)
Lab 7% (-5%)
Green 1% (-3%)
YouGov:
Con 56%
Grieve 28%
Lab 12%
Green 4%
South West Herts
Deltapoll:
Con 50% (+4%)
Lab 17% (+2%)
Gauke 16% (-4%)
LD 13% (-3%)
Green 2% (-1%)
YouGov:
Con 46%
Gauke 20%
LD 16%
Lab 15%
Green 3%
In terms of the Deltapoll versus YouGov differences, I can't see any consistent patterns for Lab, Con or LD, notably anything that might indicate that the YouGov model may be overstating the Tories and understating Labour (such a thing may indeed be occurring, and might be apparent if we had a lot more constituency data, but there's nothing from these Deltapoll numbers to suggest that it is.) This represents welcome news for the Tories.
This brings me to a question. Are the huge labour votes in such student heavy areas coming from students who won’t be there during election time and, if this is the case, does this not destabilise the electoral picture?
2) Nursing should not be a degree subject. If it is then reduce the fees and have a write off period if they do X years in the NHS.
3) Doctors should have golden handcuffs. The training cost is enormous. No going to Australia / Nz / Canada / USA / other until X years service completed in the NHS or else your registration is revoked.