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  • Fuck off Malcolm.

    You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
    Tories are really losing their shit over Corbyn. I don't even like him but if Tories hate him this much maybe he's alright.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.

    BoZo has the reputation of Aldridge Prior.

    Specifically I suspect that the LibDems will put Corbyn into #10 for a referendum

    Despite explicitly saying they won’t
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139
    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    A lot of the Tory MPs fired did vote for the deal - Clarke, Gauke, Stewart, etc. They were fired for voting against No Deal.
    The small number of Tories who voted against the deal might be balanced by the Labour MPs who voted for the deal who are now standing down.
    I think the Deal falls with 317 Tory MPs, even though it passed second reading when Johnson had fewer than 300.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The insane thing is we are talking with BMG can Corbyn be PM and Comres is a sniff away from landslide territory
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Comres you beauty!
  • Are we due Survation this evening?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,165
    edited November 2019
    ComRes is almost exactly in line with the YouGov MRP shares. It'll be amazing if they hit the jackpot again with their seat forecasts.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    The insane thing is we are talking with BMG can Corbyn be PM and Comres is a sniff away from landslide territory

    No, the insane thing is we are still having an election after Yougov's MRP told us the results.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    edited November 2019
    nova said:

    Apparently not - the Brexit party pulling out in just Tory seats heavily skews the polling. YouGov suggest a 7% lead is needed for a majority - although there has also been talk of Lib Dem/SNP gains, which, if they don't happen, could make a lower figure lead possible.

    Almost certainly Tories need a much bigger lead than last time to achieve a marginally better result.
    The Tories need 8 seats for a majority Yougov MRP gives the Tories lead in the 8th seat they are forecast to gain with the 8th biggest swing from Labour is 8%, Rother Valley. Nationally the Tories lead by 11%, so a 3% lead could do it with no losses.

    Assuming the LDs gain 3 Tory seats as forecast and the SNP 2 then the 13th seat the Tories are forecast to take from Labour and would need for a majority is Wolverhampton South West where the Tories lead by 7%. So with an 11% national lead on the poll a 4% national Tory lead is the likely real target for a Tory majority

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,016
    Ave_it said:

    LAB Maj nailed on.

    Ave it you are off form, hung parliament with SNP as Kingmakers, they will make Corbyn squirm and pay big time.
  • Andy_JS said:

    ComRes is almost exactly in line with the YouGov MRP shares. It'll be amazing if they hit the jackpot again with their seat forecasts.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    It's worth mentioning the one they did in 2017 was a lot closer to the election, so I think they will do one more.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,259
    edited November 2019
    Uh-huh.
    There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead.
    Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Yeah, what’s another £58bn to add to the pile? It’s completely mad, remember back to when Cameron and Brown spent the whole 2010 campaign arguing about £6bn in welfare cuts?
    I can name one person who gives a **** show. Me. Because it matters to how you are attacked. If Tories went with the big bribe you describe would it have added votes, or the means of paying for the bribe being attacked cost votes?
    The difference is Boris manifesto maybe maybe not getting majority, but campaign silly like you are suggesting and it may not even be largest party.
    There needs to be differentials, and the Tories engineered a good one in terms of taxing
    The manifesto launch was flat for other reasons.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I think Opinium will show 10 point lead

    No 14%

    Cant narrow by more than 5% in a week
  • Foxy said:

    Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.

    BoZo has the reputation of Aldridge Prior.

    Props for the Viz reference.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,430
    edited November 2019

    Are we due Survation this evening?

    Johnny come lately - Sunday mornings usually.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,924
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    No, we go to another general election in the Spring almost certainly with the EU extending again to accomodate if the 2017 result is repeated
    With the Brexit Party standing in the Tory seats too?
  • medsmeds Posts: 1
    Are there any more polls out tonight?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    No, I'm bang on.

    And my contempt extends to you ten-fold (I actually like Jonathan) because you're campaigning for the c**t.

    If he gets into Downing Street you have blood on your hands.

    I won't let you forget it.
    I think you're going too far. I dislike Corbyn as much as the next man, but you can't condemn people for voting in ways you dislike.
  • Worth noting BMG is 27-29, ComRes is 27-28, so could the terrorist incident have had an impact?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Charles said:

    Specifically I suspect that the LibDems will put Corbyn into #10 for a referendum

    Despite explicitly saying they won’t
    I disagree.

    I think they got badly burnt by lying in 2010, and I think they know that by refusing to put Corbyn in Number 10, they'd get more Tory Remainer votes in any rerun. (This theory does, admittedly, require the LDs to be intelligent, which may be a step too far.)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    No 14%

    Cant narrow by more than 5% in a week
    How come?
  • The insane thing is we are talking with BMG can Corbyn be PM and Comres is a sniff away from landslide territory

    ELBOW will reveal all :)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes CON Maj nailed on! I am an elections expert!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Sandpit said:
    Labour, LDs and BXP all the same in both polls - the difference is 4 points on the Tory share (and correspondingly fewer Others - BMG had 5% Greens). An 8-point lead might be the right guess?
  • I wonder if what we are seeing is the new "large" lead being around 10 points, the "small" lead being around 6?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    edited November 2019
    meds said:

    Are there any more polls out tonight?

    Yes. Opinium. DeltaPoll. YouGov. Could be more... #MegaPollingSaturday :D
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Worth noting BMG is 27-29, ComRes is 27-28, so could the terrorist incident have had an impact?

    Why would that make it worse for the Tories
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Uh-huh.
    There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead.
    Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
    Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Glorious news! :p
  • What is consistent is the Labour share, it seems that the Tory one is the inconsistent thing
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028
    edited November 2019
    The Com Res poll has left the picture unchanged.

    Tory majority 10
    Remember that when a poll is added to the model it initially carries a 10% weight that decays exponentially as other polls are added in.
    Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
    41.8/31.4/14.1/4.5/3.0
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited November 2019



    People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.

    People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".

    For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it
    It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.

    You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.

    Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.

    Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.

    At present we seem set for a large Tory majority. That is a problem for many people on the left. That is all I shared. That may be unwelcome news, but you should be able to handle that. People fear Boris and his gang.

    I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.

    FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
    Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.

    It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
  • Tories are really losing their shit over Corbyn. I don't even like him but if Tories hate him this much maybe he's alright.
    Yes, that's the level of utter moronity on which you Zebedees politically operate.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Looks like it's safe to change underwear PBTories :D

    I don't believe it.

    Doesn't smell right.

    What adjustments have all these pollsters made?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Worth noting BMG is 27-29, ComRes is 27-28, so could the terrorist incident have had an impact?

    Lol are you Owen Jones?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    egg said:

    Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
    1.5% swing.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I wonder if what we are seeing is the new "large" lead being around 10 points, the "small" lead being around 6?

    Desperate stuff.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    meds said:

    Are there any more polls out tonight?

    I think we should expect a few more. Welcome, BTW.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    BMG and ComRes both have same Lab share 33%.
    Look at the share, not the lead.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019

    What is consistent is the Labour share, it seems that the Tory one is the inconsistent thing

    Lol, the tory share is solidly 41 to 43 apart from the one BMG poll
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.

    It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
    Keep up the good work!
  • nunu2 said:

    Desperate stuff.
    Hey, you have your poll and I have mine! :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,016

    Fuck off Malcolm.

    You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
    I don't remember that one, but doubt it was about the SNP, independence perhaps, but hey I am in a great mood , Christmas trees up today , having a beer and just waiting on my sirloin steak , fried onions and triple cooked chips coming up , with a nice Shiraz, probably watch the Irishman later and have a nice cognac nightcap. Better things to worry about than which of Johnson or Corbyn is the biggest arsehole, chill out or you will burst a gasket.
  • nunu2 said:

    Lol are you Owen Jones?
    Have a lovely evening!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    egg said:

    Good work.
    Chingford still toss up or have you got it now
    It leans Tory now but still work to do to GOTV
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855028229115905

    No details of the number of interviews.
  • Does Franny Barber post on here under another name? The style seems familiar..

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1200562816379428865?s=20
  • Jonathan said:

    At present we seem set for a large Tory majority. That is a problem for many people on the left. That is all I shared. That may be unwelcome news, but you should be able to handle that.

    I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.

    FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.


    Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.

    It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.

    Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.

    You'll then walk it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    egg said:

    How come?
    I just dont think it will.

    I wouldnt pay a polling company that showed massive swings in a week feels too much like pin sticking
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Pulpstar said:
    If Comres have Tories adding voters this week rumours of shrinking gapfrom the remaining firms can be written off on spot 😃
  • The MRP for Portsmouth South was:

    Lab 42%
    Con 35%
    Lib 16%
    BXP 6%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    Sandpit said:

    Keep up the good work!
    Will do
  • Sean_F said:

    I think you're going too far. I dislike Corbyn as much as the next man, but you can't condemn people for voting in ways you dislike.
    I can for Corbyn.

    The man is off the scale and there are too many sensible posters on here giving him the time of day.
  • HYUFD said:

    Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.

    It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
    Why on earth is the Lab vote holding up in Remain areas? No one has any idea what Labour's position is, which has become the Schleswigg-Holstein of our age.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    egg said:

    Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
    1.5% swing tbf
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    The MRP for Portsmouth South was:

    Lab 42%
    Con 35%
    Lib 16%
    BXP 6%
    Point being MRP being substantiated by others. And it was Tory Landslide.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    As I said, I'm not worried. This isn't 2017. Our campaign has been uninspiring, but not utter dogshit like May.

    I also think Labour have peaked too early.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Thanks for coming Watford. Looking forward to playing Luton next season - maybe

    We all know LAB has won Portsmouth S so no surprise
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    1.5% swing tbf
    That might settle a few nerves
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    1.5% swing tbf
    What’s the greens, I want to do a

    Tory + BREX 47
    Lab Lib green ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited November 2019


    Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.

    It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.

    Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.

    You'll then walk it.
    You clearly missed the MRP and the betting markets. Even if Boris does manage miraculously not to win a majority, we are going to be in hung parliament territory. We will end up with an EURef 2 and that is a very good thing indeed. Well worth voting for.

    But sadly that is not what is going to happen.

    Far more likely is a hard Brexit in 12 months and five years of right-wing rhetoric and populist bullshit as the economy slowly disappears down the toilet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,165
    edited November 2019
    All of these are pretty much in line with the YouGov MRP study. I have a feeling they — YouGov — may be heading for another stunning success with the model.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Worth noting BMG is 27-29, ComRes is 27-28, so could the terrorist incident have had an impact?

    Free money might make an impact.
    I'm as much a whore as any other voter, but I'll be needing a £100k bung from Labour to vote for them. I'm a high class whore.
  • Very. Signs there of LD tactical switching to Labour, and the Brexit Candidate not making much difference.

    It has occurred to me that one explanation for the poor polling by the LDs nationally may be that in many constituencies it makes sense for their supporters to switch behind Labour. The number where the reverse applies would be relatively small. So the 13% the LDs are currently polling may belie a greater impact when the real count happens.

    Lot of guesswork there, but it's not implausible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    DeClare said:
    Tories taking equally from Labour and the Brexit Party and no further LD squeeze by Labour, encouraging
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Has the MRP underestimated the Tory share in each of those seats?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    edited November 2019
    Portsmouth South poll reconciles with Nick Palmer report.
    On face of it very poor for Con - though close to MRP so maybe a constituency moving against national picture.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    So -about Corbyism sweeping the nation.....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    Ave_it said:

    Yes CON Maj nailed on! I am an elections expert!

    The British public have had enough of experts.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    No surprises with them constituency polls really. Decent showing by Grieve as an independent.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    BTW if anyone likes Sabaton there is a superb acoustic session on You tube i'm listening to right now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,603
    edited November 2019
    Esher and Walton now more marginal than Harlow for the Tories and the LDs squeezing the Labour vote but Raab still clinging on
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Grieve a gonner
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Floater said:

    BTW if anyone likes Sabaton there is a superb acoustic session on You tube i'm listening to right now

    I think as a fan of Paradox games I have to be a fan of Sabaton. ;)
  • Deltapoll national poll is coming tonight, apparently it's "fascinating"
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Whilst everyone winds themselves up on here about polls, rumours, closing gaps, the genius of WASPI (whilst still being a week and a half out), the Tory campaign doesnt seem to be panicking much. Despite being non existent, if they were worried, surely we'd be seeing some panic bungs?

    If genius is merely throwing money at the grabbiest, greediest, most all take not give, fuck the rest generation the Britain has ever seen, then it’s been slightly debased from the time of Einstein..
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    First reaction nah. More labour voters now than then? Laughable.
    Second reaction, they are squeezing Lib Dem’s where it matters most.
  • malcolmg said:

    I don't remember that one, but doubt it was about the SNP, independence perhaps, but hey I am in a great mood , Christmas trees up today , having a beer and just waiting on my sirloin steak , fried onions and triple cooked chips coming up , with a nice Shiraz, probably watch the Irishman later and have a nice cognac nightcap. Better things to worry about than which of Johnson or Corbyn is the biggest arsehole, chill out or you will burst a gasket.
    Glad to hear it.

    Enjoy.
This discussion has been closed.