Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.
The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.
It was entirely necessary
The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.
An election is the only solution
And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?
The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
Then I suspect we will discover that the LibDems have been lying through their teeth
Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.
BoZo has the reputation of Aldridge Prior.
Specifically I suspect that the LibDems will put Corbyn into #10 for a referendum
If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?
A lot of the Tory MPs fired did vote for the deal - Clarke, Gauke, Stewart, etc. They were fired for voting against No Deal. The small number of Tories who voted against the deal might be balanced by the Labour MPs who voted for the deal who are now standing down. I think the Deal falls with 317 Tory MPs, even though it passed second reading when Johnson had fewer than 300.
A 6% lead is still enough for a Tory majority given May was only 8 seats short of a majority with just a 2% lead
Apparently not - the Brexit party pulling out in just Tory seats heavily skews the polling. YouGov suggest a 7% lead is needed for a majority - although there has also been talk of Lib Dem/SNP gains, which, if they don't happen, could make a lower figure lead possible.
Almost certainly Tories need a much bigger lead than last time to achieve a marginally better result.
The Tories need 8 seats for a majority Yougov MRP gives the Tories lead in the 8th seat they are forecast to gain with the 8th biggest swing from Labour is 8%, Rother Valley. Nationally the Tories lead by 11%, so a 3% lead could do it with no losses.
Assuming the LDs gain 3 Tory seats as forecast and the SNP 2 then the 13th seat the Tories are forecast to take from Labour and would need for a majority is Wolverhampton South West where the Tories lead by 7%. So with an 11% national lead on the poll a 4% national Tory lead is the likely real target for a Tory majority
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
Paid for by what, borrowing, brexit bonus, sneaky flat tax rise, sneaky less money for council or ministries?
Noone gives a shit how anything is paid for, see this Waspi bung.
Yeah, what’s another £58bn to add to the pile? It’s completely mad, remember back to when Cameron and Brown spent the whole 2010 campaign arguing about £6bn in welfare cuts?
I can name one person who gives a **** show. Me. Because it matters to how you are attacked. If Tories went with the big bribe you describe would it have added votes, or the means of paying for the bribe being attacked cost votes? The difference is Boris manifesto maybe maybe not getting majority, but campaign silly like you are suggesting and it may not even be largest party. There needs to be differentials, and the Tories engineered a good one in terms of taxing The manifesto launch was flat for other reasons.
Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.
The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.
It was entirely necessary
The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.
An election is the only solution
And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?
The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
Then I suspect we will discover that the LibDems have been lying through their teeth
Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.
If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?
Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.
If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
No, we go to another general election in the Spring almost certainly with the EU extending again to accomodate if the 2017 result is repeated
With the Brexit Party standing in the Tory seats too?
Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays. He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind. I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating. You disgust me.
You sound deranged. Really, you do.
No, I'm bang on.
And my contempt extends to you ten-fold (I actually like Jonathan) because you're campaigning for the c**t.
If he gets into Downing Street you have blood on your hands.
I won't let you forget it.
I think you're going too far. I dislike Corbyn as much as the next man, but you can't condemn people for voting in ways you dislike.
Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.
The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.
It was entirely necessary
The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.
An election is the only solution
And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?
The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
Then I suspect we will discover that the LibDems have been lying through their teeth
Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.
BoZo has the reputation of Aldridge Prior.
Specifically I suspect that the LibDems will put Corbyn into #10 for a referendum
Despite explicitly saying they won’t
I disagree.
I think they got badly burnt by lying in 2010, and I think they know that by refusing to put Corbyn in Number 10, they'd get more Tory Remainer votes in any rerun. (This theory does, admittedly, require the LDs to be intelligent, which may be a step too far.)
Labour, LDs and BXP all the same in both polls - the difference is 4 points on the Tory share (and correspondingly fewer Others - BMG had 5% Greens). An 8-point lead might be the right guess?
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
The Com Res poll has left the picture unchanged. Tory majority 10 Remember that when a poll is added to the model it initially carries a 10% weight that decays exponentially as other polls are added in. Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn 41.8/31.4/14.1/4.5/3.0
People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.
People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".
For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.
You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.
Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.
Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
At present we seem set for a large Tory majority. That is a problem for many people on the left. That is all I shared. That may be unwelcome news, but you should be able to handle that. People fear Boris and his gang.
I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game. Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges. I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?
What utter rubbish.
This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.
That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.
The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.
It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.
Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.
I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much.
Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.
But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.
Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.
A real true visceral fear.
I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.
In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the
He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.
I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
You disgust me.
Get a life
Fuck off Malcolm.
You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
Tories are really losing their shit over Corbyn. I don't even like him but if Tories hate him this much maybe he's alright.
Yes, that's the level of utter moronity on which you Zebedees politically operate.
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game. Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges. I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?
What utter rubbish.
This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.
That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.
The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.
It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.
Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.
I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.
Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.
But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.
Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.
A real true visceral fear.
I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.
In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
SNIP
I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
You disgust me.
Get a life
Fuck off Malcolm.
You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
I don't remember that one, but doubt it was about the SNP, independence perhaps, but hey I am in a great mood , Christmas trees up today , having a beer and just waiting on my sirloin steak , fried onions and triple cooked chips coming up , with a nice Shiraz, probably watch the Irishman later and have a nice cognac nightcap. Better things to worry about than which of Johnson or Corbyn is the biggest arsehole, chill out or you will burst a gasket.
I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.
Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.
But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.
In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. our mind.
I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
You disgust me.
Blimey, that’s a little harsh for a Saturday night. I suggest you reflect on why many on the left do not see Boris as a safe pair of hands and why we will do what we can to deny him a big majority. You might not like what I report, but that’s the way it is.
I managed to turn a 2017 Tory Remainer back to the Tories today over fear of Corbyn in Chingford and Woodford Green
Good work. Chingford still toss up or have you got it now
People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.
People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".
For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.
You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.
Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.
Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
At present we seem set for a large Tory majority. That is a problem for many people on the left. That is all I shared. That may be unwelcome news, but you should be able to handle that.
I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.
It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.
Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.
I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game. Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges. I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?
What utter rubbish.
This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.
That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.
The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.
It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays. He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind. I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating. You disgust me.
You sound deranged. Really, you do.
No, I'm bang on.
And my contempt extends to you ten-fold (I actually like Jonathan) because you're campaigning for the c**t.
If he gets into Downing Street you have blood on your hands.
I won't let you forget it.
I think you're going too far. I dislike Corbyn as much as the next man, but you can't condemn people for voting in ways you dislike.
I can for Corbyn.
The man is off the scale and there are too many sensible posters on here giving him the time of day.
I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game. Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges. I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?
What utter rubbish.
This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.
That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.
The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
Thank you, I also have been canvassing and leafleting all day in Harlow and Chingford and Woodford Green, 2 Labour target seats and did not find a single confirmed 2017 Tory to Labour switcher in either of them.
It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
Why on earth is the Lab vote holding up in Remain areas? No one has any idea what Labour's position is, which has become the Schleswigg-Holstein of our age.
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
Uh-huh. There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead. Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
Three percent swing to the Tories with Comres with just ten days to go.
People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.
People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".
For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.
You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.
Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.
Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
At present we seem set for a large Tory majority. That is a problem for many people on the left. That is all I shared. That may be unwelcome news, but you should be able to handle that.
I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.
It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.
Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.
You'll then walk it.
You clearly missed the MRP and the betting markets. Even if Boris does manage miraculously not to win a majority, we are going to be in hung parliament territory. We will end up with an EURef 2 and that is a very good thing indeed. Well worth voting for.
But sadly that is not what is going to happen.
Far more likely is a hard Brexit in 12 months and five years of right-wing rhetoric and populist bullshit as the economy slowly disappears down the toilet.
All of these are pretty much in line with the YouGov MRP study. I have a feeling they — YouGov — may be heading for another stunning success with the model.
Worth noting BMG is 27-29, ComRes is 27-28, so could the terrorist incident have had an impact?
Free money might make an impact. I'm as much a whore as any other voter, but I'll be needing a £100k bung from Labour to vote for them. I'm a high class whore.
Very. Signs there of LD tactical switching to Labour, and the Brexit Candidate not making much difference.
It has occurred to me that one explanation for the poor polling by the LDs nationally may be that in many constituencies it makes sense for their supporters to switch behind Labour. The number where the reverse applies would be relatively small. So the 13% the LDs are currently polling may belie a greater impact when the real count happens.
Portsmouth South poll reconciles with Nick Palmer report. On face of it very poor for Con - though close to MRP so maybe a constituency moving against national picture.
Whilst everyone winds themselves up on here about polls, rumours, closing gaps, the genius of WASPI (whilst still being a week and a half out), the Tory campaign doesnt seem to be panicking much. Despite being non existent, if they were worried, surely we'd be seeing some panic bungs?
If genius is merely throwing money at the grabbiest, greediest, most all take not give, fuck the rest generation the Britain has ever seen, then it’s been slightly debased from the time of Einstein..
I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.
Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.
I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.
Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.
But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.
Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.
A real true visceral fear.
I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.
In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
SNIP
I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
You disgust me.
Get a life
Fuck off Malcolm.
You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
I don't remember that one, but doubt it was about the SNP, independence perhaps, but hey I am in a great mood , Christmas trees up today , having a beer and just waiting on my sirloin steak , fried onions and triple cooked chips coming up , with a nice Shiraz, probably watch the Irishman later and have a nice cognac nightcap. Better things to worry about than which of Johnson or Corbyn is the biggest arsehole, chill out or you will burst a gasket.
Comments
Despite explicitly saying they won’t
The small number of Tories who voted against the deal might be balanced by the Labour MPs who voted for the deal who are now standing down.
I think the Deal falls with 317 Tory MPs, even though it passed second reading when Johnson had fewer than 300.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1200852564457205760
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
Assuming the LDs gain 3 Tory seats as forecast and the SNP 2 then the 13th seat the Tories are forecast to take from Labour and would need for a majority is Wolverhampton South West where the Tories lead by 7%. So with an 11% national lead on the poll a 4% national Tory lead is the likely real target for a Tory majority
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
There is no rational basis for thinking that a correct reading of the voters right now is a 2% Tory lead.
Tories are not going to Labour. They just aren't.
The difference is Boris manifesto maybe maybe not getting majority, but campaign silly like you are suggesting and it may not even be largest party.
There needs to be differentials, and the Tories engineered a good one in terms of taxing
The manifesto launch was flat for other reasons.
Cant narrow by more than 5% in a week
I think they got badly burnt by lying in 2010, and I think they know that by refusing to put Corbyn in Number 10, they'd get more Tory Remainer votes in any rerun. (This theory does, admittedly, require the LDs to be intelligent, which may be a step too far.)
Tory majority 10
Remember that when a poll is added to the model it initially carries a 10% weight that decays exponentially as other polls are added in.
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
41.8/31.4/14.1/4.5/3.0
I appreciate that Tories would like to spend the whole campaign talking about Corbyn, For me the urgent issue right now is to get definition about what "get Brexit done" actually means and get something on the record that acts as a restraint on a possible hard Brexit in 12 months time. Boris, who is likely to win, has so far escaped scrutiny on his core policy.
FWIW I have not decided who I will vote for on 12 December. Right now, I intend to vote for the person most likely to unseat the Conservative.
It will not be a Tory landslide, the Labour vote is holding up particularly in Remain areas but a small Tory majority is still likely
Doesn't smell right.
What adjustments have all these pollsters made?
Interesting
Look at the share, not the lead.
What we thinking?
No details of the number of interviews.
https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1200562816379428865?s=20
Your first sentence is totally wrong. That invalidates the rest of the first paragraph.
It's not all about Corbyn. He's your leader and he's standing on a socialist manifesto. That's what scares me. If it was Ed Balls I wouldn't care.
Your voting is more likely to result in a hard Brexit. Do us all a favour: focus on defeating the hard Left and getting Labour in a fit state, be an outstanding opposition and get fit to win in the next few years.
You'll then walk it.
I wouldnt pay a polling company that showed massive swings in a week feels too much like pin sticking
Lab 42%
Con 35%
Lib 16%
BXP 6%
Labour voters, you know what to do
The man is off the scale and there are too many sensible posters on here giving him the time of day.
Amazing
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/30/jeremy-corbyns-ardent-supporters-likely-anti-semitic/
Ohhhh
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855757362782209
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855937931718658
I also think Labour have peaked too early.
We all know LAB has won Portsmouth S so no surprise
Tory + BREX 47
Lab Lib green ?
But sadly that is not what is going to happen.
Far more likely is a hard Brexit in 12 months and five years of right-wing rhetoric and populist bullshit as the economy slowly disappears down the toilet.
I'm as much a whore as any other voter, but I'll be needing a £100k bung from Labour to vote for them. I'm a high class whore.
It has occurred to me that one explanation for the poor polling by the LDs nationally may be that in many constituencies it makes sense for their supporters to switch behind Labour. The number where the reverse applies would be relatively small. So the 13% the LDs are currently polling may belie a greater impact when the real count happens.
Lot of guesswork there, but it's not implausible.
On face of it very poor for Con - though close to MRP so maybe a constituency moving against national picture.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1200856774657658880
Second reaction, they are squeezing Lib Dem’s where it matters most.
Enjoy.