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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Andy_JS said:

    It may be important to remember that the YouGov MRP study gave Labour 32% and 211 seats. Their current polling average is around 32%.

    How many straws are you clutching?
  • MaxPB said:

    On student fees, we absolutely need to reduce fees to £3k again and refund all of those graduates who had the £9k fees. Admit we made the mistake and make amends for it.

    Not only is it the right thing to do, it also puts us on the side of young for once which is something we struggle with.

    Can you name any Conservative MP who has mentioned student fees in the last two years ?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    The Tories need to go hard on not being on the side of these women.

    Call them the women against state pension _equality_

    Point out that every other man, woman and child in the land will be paying them.

    £2300 out of everyone else's pocket so selfish boomers can have what younger generations who don't expect to retire until their seventies will never have.

    Yet another bung to the oldies who enjoyed free university education and bought houses when they were in the thousands of pounds not hundreds of thousands.

    Corbyn for the few, not the many. Corbyn for the rich, the old, the over privileged. And you will be footing the bill for it all.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?

    It's because I'm the site technical administrator and I'm really busy right now with my new auto insurance venture.
    Just whack Fastly in front of it.
    Will Fastly play nicely with the Vanilla integration? (Not that I know how Fastly works.)
    Only one way to find out. :smile:

    FWIW have used Fastly in front of a whole ratsnest of legacy apps. Very little broke. With a look.
  • nunu2 said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    Everything has been thrown at them?

    Tories haven't touched them
    Their big play was anti-Semitism - and it's completely failed to do anything
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    I think Boris will win a majority but if he does not then EUref2 is likely if it is another hung parliament and this time Labour plus LDs plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green are more than the Tories plus the DUP (plus any Brexit Party MP elected).

    That would be the case even if the Tories are largest party and Boris remains PM as the LDs would vote for EUref2 even if they would not vote to make Corbyn PM
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    And the one big thing, turned out to be a lie.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?

    The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
    Then I suspect we will discover that the LibDems have been lying through their teeth

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    Have you ever thought of seeking psychiatric help?

    Trump Health will not be doing this for free so get in quick
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    I think Boris will win a majority but if he does not then EUref2 is likely if it is another hung parliament and this time Labour plus LDs plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green are more than the Tories plus the DUP (plus any Brexit Party MP elected).

    That would be the case even if the Tories are largest party and Boris remains PM as the LDs would vote for EUref2 even if they would not vote to make Corbyn PM

    EURef2 vs Hard Brexit,
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Putting BMG into the model gives:

    Tory majority of 10. LDs slip a seat to 29.
  • Thinking more about Waspi issue. Boris could say:

    "We do have sympathy that there ended up being a steep rise in pension age for some although the principle of equality between men and women and having a sustainable pension scheme that is fair between generations must be respected. The legal process needs to be exhausted. Once it has been we will set up an independent arbitration committee to agree an equitable set of back payments based on real data about the impact of the changes."

    It could look weak but it could look like responding more responsibly.
  • Barnesian said:

    Putting BMG into the model gives:

    Tory majority of 10. LDs slip a seat to 29.

    Lol let's go back to 2015 and cancel these two elections
  • MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    Don't believe you.

    Such people don't exist.

    Tory and Labour voters are not interchangeable in this climate.

    They just aren't.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Whilst waiting for the next installment of 2017 part 2, I've been reading my first proper piece of election literature, which was waiting in the postbox when I got back from London earlier (we also received the Jo Swinson magazine a couple of weeks ago, but that doesn't count.)

    It's a little A5 leaflet from our local Tory candidate, who's defending a majority of about 16,500. It's a wide-ranging document for something so small, and covers issues including school and hospital funding increases, the threat of another Hung Parliament and Indyref2, tougher prison sentences, animal welfare and even the protection of chalk aquifers.

    Four words are conspicuous, however, by their absence: Europe, Brexit, Boris, Johnson.

    At the rate things are going, Europe will make it through next year but Brexit, Boris and Johnson will all be going bye-bye.

    Now, let's start thinking about possible Labour gains. Fourteen Tory seats were won on a majority of less than a thousand votes from Labour in 2017, and are available to Corbyn on a swing of 1% or less. Lab+SNP+LD+PC+Green in 2017 won a combined total of 314 seats. Add 14 to that and the left/remain alliance crosses the finishing line without needing help from Northern Ireland. It's eminently doable.
  • BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    It's more visceral than that: a lack of leadership. Manifesto. Debates. All of it.

    EXACTLY WHAT DID FOR MRS MAY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Jason said:

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
    There's a good case to be made that charging 6% to students when the Govt. can borrow money at a fraction of that is not The Right Thing To Do. Remember, for every £1 pledged so far by the Tories, Labour has pledged £26.
    There's headroom.
    It doesn't matter how good the case is the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.

    Thy don't want to think about it, they don't want to talk about it ** and the don't want to do anything about it.

    ** Did student debt get mentioned by any of the Conservative leadership contenders this year ?
    If the Tories had listened to Casino and my goodself towards the end of the campaign in 2017, they would have announced they were going to honour the bus pledge. In the end, May ended up announcing W-A-Y more for the NHS than the bus. But she lost her majority and then her job. All because to honour the bus pledge would have been a boost to Boris.
    The same Boris who is now PM, Theresa. You know, the guy who took your job.
    There is no reason for Boris to make the same mistake.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Whilst everyone winds themselves up on here about polls, rumours, closing gaps, the genius of WASPI (whilst still being a week and a half out), the Tory campaign doesnt seem to be panicking much. Despite being non existent, if they were worried, surely we'd be seeing some panic bungs?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.

    Casino, you only fear corbyn if you have something to lose, even I understand that if you believe you have nothing to lose then corbyn is the only alternative. The problem is labour continue to fail the people who need them by a program of extensive nationalization’s which benefit nobody and stupid bungs to people who don’t need it. Corbyn is the ultimate Tory little helper and anybody who cares about solving societies injustices is deluded. Remove the nationalization plans and the middle class bungs then they would be in with a chance. Also don’t forget the retrograde trade union legislation which is even more stupid than the nationalization’s you have a disaster on your hands.
    It’s up to labour to change if they want to achieve something but they won’t because the faithful believe they only have to win once to completely change the narrative. I will not even start on what I think of the Tories who are even worse and have no other objective than protecting their own wealth.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just goes to show Corbyn's "car crash" interview has made absolutely no difference whatsoever and Labour's lead has gone up.

    Six points behind is not a lead.
    Sorry should have said Labour's share. Too late to edit now.
    Good point though, what is worse, 30 minutes of difficult interview only splashed as car crash by the mirror, or this coward tag?
  • MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    Don't believe you.

    Such people don't exist.

    Tory and Labour voters are not interchangeable in this climate.

    They just aren't.
    Waspi effect means that there might be some
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    It's more visceral than that: a lack of leadership. Manifesto. Debates. All of it.

    EXACTLY WHAT DID FOR MRS MAY.
    Get the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy, read the cover.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited November 2019

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    A leaf out of John Major’s book?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    Apparently ComRes is good as well?

    Link?
    2% is the Twitter rumour
    Can you give a link to rumour :) ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    dr_spyn said:
    A 6% lead is still enough for a Tory majority given May was only 8 seats short of a majority with just a 2% lead
  • nichomar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.

    Casino, you only fear corbyn if you have something to lose, even I understand that if you believe you have nothing to lose then corbyn is the only alternative. The problem is labour continue to fail the people who need them by a program of extensive nationalization’s which benefit nobody and stupid bungs to people who don’t need it. Corbyn is the ultimate Tory little helper and anybody who cares about solving societies injustices is deluded. Remove the nationalization plans and the middle class bungs then they would be in with a chance. Also don’t forget the retrograde trade union legislation which is even more stupid than the nationalization’s you have a disaster on your hands.
    It’s up to labour to change if they want to achieve something but they won’t because the faithful believe they only have to win once to completely change the narrative. I will not even start on what I think of the Tories who are even worse and have no other objective than protecting their own wealth.
    You can fear Corbyn precisely because of those policies and the fact they they will damage the economy so much that our relatively stable democratic society might not survive.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kyf_100 said:

    nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    The Tories need to go hard on not being on the side of these women.

    Call them the women against state pension _equality_

    Point out that every other man, woman and child in the land will be paying them.

    £2300 out of everyone else's pocket so selfish boomers can have what younger generations who don't expect to retire until their seventies will never have.

    Yet another bung to the oldies who enjoyed free university education and bought houses when they were in the thousands of pounds not hundreds of thousands.

    Corbyn for the few, not the many. Corbyn for the rich, the old, the over privileged. And you will be footing the bill for it all.

    what about waspi men , are they going to pay back the 8.5K they nicked off me.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    Don't believe you.

    Such people don't exist.

    Tory and Labour voters are not interchangeable in this climate.

    They just aren't.
    I don’t believe you casino. Tory’s need lab and tory voters interchangeable in the election.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    How many of them are getting bunged 25 grand by Corbyn ?
    Quite a few. massive Tories converted by the click of Johns magic calculator.

    I personally think the policy stinks.

    If its the only way yo win people over shrugs shoulders
  • ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jason said:

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
    There's a good case to be made that charging 6% to students when the Govt. can borrow money at a fraction of that is not The Right Thing To Do. Remember, for every £1 pledged so far by the Tories, Labour has pledged £26.
    There's headroom.
    It doesn't matter how good the case is the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.

    Thy don't want to think about it, they don't want to talk about it ** and the don't want to do anything about it.

    ** Did student debt get mentioned by any of the Conservative leadership contenders this year ?
    If the Tories had listened to Casino and my goodself towards the end of the campaign in 2017, they would have announced they were going to honour the bus pledge. In the end, May ended up announcing W-A-Y more for the NHS than the bus. But she lost her majority and then her job. All because to honour the bus pledge would have been a boost to Boris.
    The same Boris who is now PM, Theresa. You know, the guy who took your job.
    There is no reason for Boris to make the same mistake.
    The problem with the bus pledge now is that under Boris’s Brexit £350m a week will only pay for three paracetamol from Big US pharma.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre

    If it's a twitter rumor I'd take it with a mountain of salt.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
  • Another point for the this is 2017 all over again gang. The Tories pulled away a little in the last few days of 2017s campaign....

    No they didn't....

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
    I'm referring to what was stated by YouGov, not by your elbow
    You didn't mention YouGov!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019

    Whilst everyone winds themselves up on here about polls, rumours, closing gaps, the genius of WASPI (whilst still being a week and a half out), the Tory campaign doesnt seem to be panicking much. Despite being non existent, if they were worried, surely we'd be seeing some panic bungs?

    Perhaps i'm misremembering but IIRC the Tories last time were still campaigning in places like Bolsover until the last week or so when they belatedly changed tack to go on the defensive.
    I'm sceptical of their ability to realise if the ground is shifting beneath their feet until it's too late.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2019
    Bizarrely Con Maj has just tightened back in to 1.49.
  • nunu2 said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    Everything has been thrown at them?

    Tories haven't touched them
    Their big play was anti-Semitism - and it's completely failed to do anything
    Anti-semitism is an issue which is in important in the media and political bubbles but outside of North London is an irrelevance.
  • RobD said:

    ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre

    If it's a twitter rumor I'd take it with a mountain of salt.
    Yes, it's just as likely to be a 10 point lead with how things are going
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    ydoethur said:

    That would work, if it were not for the suggestion that having seen through the risible Johnson they are now turning to the more risible Corbyn.

    They've seen through Corbyn and now perhaps doing the same with "Boris".
    That's what hung parliament would say to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Sandpit said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    A leaf out of John Major’s book?


    I know I'm certainly sui generis (As are lots of PBers), however where I live in the country most certainly is not. The Tories have delivered 2 leaflets so far with 1 via freepost and a missed canvass card.
    Labour have delivered a sole freepost leaflet.
    Key constituency of Bassetlaw.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Sandpit said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    A leaf out of John Major’s book?


    Has an agreeably retro feel! But with a choice of spending bombshells from all aides, it somewhat loses its force.
  • malcolmg said:

    kyf_100 said:

    nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    The Tories need to go hard on not being on the side of these women.

    Call them the women against state pension _equality_

    Point out that every other man, woman and child in the land will be paying them.

    £2300 out of everyone else's pocket so selfish boomers can have what younger generations who don't expect to retire until their seventies will never have.

    Yet another bung to the oldies who enjoyed free university education and bought houses when they were in the thousands of pounds not hundreds of thousands.

    Corbyn for the few, not the many. Corbyn for the rich, the old, the over privileged. And you will be footing the bill for it all.

    what about waspi men , are they going to pay back the 8.5K they nicked off me.
    Sorry to keep banging on about it, but is Labour's proposal legal? Would they have to repeal primary sex discrimination legislation?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

  • egg said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    Don't believe you.

    Such people don't exist.

    Tory and Labour voters are not interchangeable in this climate.

    They just aren't.
    I don’t believe you casino. Tory’s need lab and tory voters interchangeable in the election.
    Interchangeable block one:

    Tories + Brexit + soft right-wing LDs (and some tactical Unionists in Scotland)

    Interchangeable block two:

    Labour + Lib Dem + Green + soft leftwing LDs (and some nationalists in Wales and Scotland when their primary cause isn't directly in play.

    Tory > Labour switchers (or vice versa) negligible unless Brexit is their biggest boner on the whole planet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    MikeL said:

    Bizarrely Con Maj has just tightened back in to 1.49.

    Opinium (best for Con) usually turns up around 7pm...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    Caroline Flint and Melanie Onn ?
  • novanova Posts: 692
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    A 6% lead is still enough for a Tory majority given May was only 8 seats short of a majority with just a 2% lead
    Apparently not - the Brexit party pulling out in just Tory seats heavily skews the polling. YouGov suggest a 7% lead is needed for a majority - although there has also been talk of Lib Dem/SNP gains, which, if they don't happen, could make a lower figure lead possible.

    Almost certainly Tories need a much bigger lead than last time to achieve a marginally better result.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?

    The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
    Then I suspect we will discover that the LibDems have been lying through their teeth

    Nah. Lib Dems have been hurt by being honest, it is the Tories being hurt by their own lies.

    BoZo has the reputation of Aldridge Prior.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    kyf_100 said:

    nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    The Tories need to go hard on not being on the side of these women.

    Call them the women against state pension _equality_

    Point out that every other man, woman and child in the land will be paying them.

    £2300 out of everyone else's pocket so selfish boomers can have what younger generations who don't expect to retire until their seventies will never have.

    Yet another bung to the oldies who enjoyed free university education and bought houses when they were in the thousands of pounds not hundreds of thousands.

    Corbyn for the few, not the many. Corbyn for the rich, the old, the over privileged. And you will be footing the bill for it all.

    Playing the Tories at there own Triple lock bung game TBF

    Tories have been on the side of the rich, the old, the over privileged for 9 yrs especially the Millionaires and the Russian Billionaire it worked well for them, bit late to change sides.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited November 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Blimey, that’s a little harsh for a Saturday night. I suggest you reflect on why many on the left do not see Boris as a safe pair of hands and why we will do what we can to deny him a big majority. You might not like what I report, but that’s the way it is.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    How many of them are getting bunged 25 grand by Corbyn ?
    Quite a few. massive Tories converted by the click of Johns magic calculator.

    I personally think the policy stinks.

    If its the only way yo win people over shrugs shoulders
    They will also love their mortgage interest rate hikes after the click of Johns magic calculator, not to mention the collapsed economy.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nunu2 said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    And the one big thing, turned out to be a lie.
    What was that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    What utter rubbish.

    This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.

    That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.

    The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Get a life
  • BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    It's more visceral than that: a lack of leadership. Manifesto. Debates. All of it.

    EXACTLY WHAT DID FOR MRS MAY.
    Politics is a profession filled with cheerleaders, arse-lickers, posturers and self-servers.

    It is not conducive to leadership skills.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre

    Most twitter rumours don;t come true i would be happy with 5% with 11 days still to go.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
    Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Blimey, that’s a little harsh for a Saturday night. I suggest you reflect on why many on the left do not see Boris as a safe pair of hands and why we will do what we can to deny him a big majority. You might not like what I report, but that’s the way it is.
    I managed to turn a 2017 Tory Remainer back to the Tories today over fear of Corbyn in Chingford and Woodford Green
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
    And Lindsay Hoyle isn’t going to go along with the games played by his predecessor.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    Caroline Flint and Melanie Onn ?
    I suspect the likes of Flint will be totally back on board with Labour though, the threat of Farage and Boris Brexit in the north being largely proven a chimera.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
    Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
    It's not even particularly good for the treasury. What it does allow is for Universities to build whizzy new buildings so probably a taxpayer funded boost for the construction industry in aggregate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Jonathan said:

    Jason said:

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
    There's a good case to be made that charging 6% to students when the Govt. can borrow money at a fraction of that is not The Right Thing To Do. Remember, for every £1 pledged so far by the Tories, Labour has pledged £26.
    There's headroom.
    It doesn't matter how good the case is the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.

    Thy don't want to think about it, they don't want to talk about it ** and the don't want to do anything about it.

    ** Did student debt get mentioned by any of the Conservative leadership contenders this year ?
    If the Tories had listened to Casino and my goodself towards the end of the campaign in 2017, they would have announced they were going to honour the bus pledge. In the end, May ended up announcing W-A-Y more for the NHS than the bus. But she lost her majority and then her job. All because to honour the bus pledge would have been a boost to Boris.
    The same Boris who is now PM, Theresa. You know, the guy who took your job.
    There is no reason for Boris to make the same mistake.
    The problem with the bus pledge now is that under Boris’s Brexit £350m a week will only pay for three paracetamol from Big US pharma.

    Groundless scaremongering - with medicines.

    Stay classy, Jonathan.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    Everything has been thrown at them?

    Tories haven't touched them
    Their big play was anti-Semitism - and it's completely failed to do anything
    Anti-semitism is an issue which is in important in the media and political bubbles but outside of North London is an irrelevance.
    I think it more simply is priced in. Corbynites often wrongly stray over the boundary from supporting Palestinians, to blaming all Jews for Palestinian sufferings. No one is thinking that Labour wants Nuremberg style laws here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Sandpit said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    A leaf out of John Major’s book?


    Those were the days when people worried about being £1,000 out of pocket... Most people would be positively relieved if that's how much a Labour government was going to cost them now!!!! :D
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    BobBeige said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
    Paid for by what, borrowing, brexit bonus, sneaky flat tax rise, sneaky less money for council or ministries?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    Caroline Flint and Melanie Onn ?
    I suspect the likes of Flint will be totally back on board with Labour though, the threat of Farage and Boris Brexit in the north being largely proven a chimera.
    No, Flint backs Boris' deal on principle. I think she's probably the only Labourite though that does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
    Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
    So what, free tuition is unaffordable without suicidal tax increases and even amongst 20 year olds 60 to 70% do not go to university anyway and should not have to subsidise the 30% that do and those who do go and study subjects that will get a well paid job e.g. economics, business, corporate law, physics, engineering etc will still end up Tories on the whole by middle age.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
    And Lindsay Hoyle isn’t going to go along with the games played by his predecessor.
    No Standing Order 24s for sure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
    Paid for by what, borrowing, brexit bonus, sneaky flat tax rise, sneaky less money for council or ministries?
    Noone gives a shit how anything is paid for, see this Waspi bung.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    out.
    Utterly insane.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Blimey, that’s a little harsh for a Saturday night. I suggest you reflect on why many of us on the left do not see Boris as a safe pair of hands and why we will do what we can to deny him a big majority.
    People I respect: Southam Observer for standing by his principles and refusing to vote for a man totally unfit to be Prime Minister of this country.

    People I don't respect: people who cast a vote for Labour *regardless of what they do* because "they are Labour".

    For you, it's a part of your identity. It's not even a choice. Rationality doesn't even come into it
    It's deep deep in the gut and part of who you are and who you have been your whole life.

    You'd vote Labour even if it were led by Chairman Mao. You can't help yourself and you have zero integrity as a result.

    Your actions will generate their own punishment though, in addition to making the rest of us suffer. You will never ever purge your own party of the Far Left AS YOU ARE VOTING TO ENDORSE THEM.

    Take a look at your face in the mirror tonight: that's what you have to live with for the rest of your life.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    What utter rubbish.

    This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.

    That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.

    The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39% ...
    Calm down dear. It's only an election.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LAB Maj nailed on.
  • Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
    Yep, people denying Boris a majority and thinking they are being oh so clever in voting against a No Deal Brexit will actually cause..

    A No Deal Brexit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.
    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.
    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
    You disgust me.

    You sound deranged. Really, you do.
  • I think Opinium will show 10 point lead
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2019
    Ave_it said:

    LAB Maj nailed on.

    Ave-It !!!! :open_mouth:
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
    Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
    So what, free tuition is unaffordable without suicidal tax increases and even amongst 20 year olds 60 to 70% do not go to university anyway and should not have to subsidise the 30% that do and those who do go and study subjects that will get a well paid job e.g. economics, business, corporate law, physics, engineering etc will still end up Tories on the whole by middle age.

    As I've been saying the Conservative party is in denial about student debt.

    You never learn do you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:

    isam said:

    If it were exactly the same result as last time, in terms of seats, wouldn’t Boris’ deal get through because the Tory MPs he fired would be replaced by deal backers?

    Probably just, would need all Con +4. The pool of ex-Lab and Lab leavers will be smaller though.

    If the Conservatives win 318 seats (adding in Buckingham) it might just squeeze though. Alternatively, we go to No Deal, because the Commons can't agree on anything.
    No, we go to another general election in the Spring almost certainly with the EU extending again to accomodate if the 2017 result is repeated
  • malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Get a life
    Fuck off Malcolm.

    You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    edited November 2019
    Duplicate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Pulpstar said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
    Paid for by what, borrowing, brexit bonus, sneaky flat tax rise, sneaky less money for council or ministries?
    Noone gives a shit how anything is paid for, see this Waspi bung.
    Yeah, what’s another £58bn to add to the pile? It’s completely mad, remember back to when Cameron and Brown spent the whole 2010 campaign arguing about £6bn in welfare cuts?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    MikeL said:

    Bizarrely Con Maj has just tightened back in to 1.49.

    I don't think it's bizarre. Their average vote share is holding steady at about 42%. Don't use single polls as guides.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Blimey, that’s a little harsh for a Saturday night. I suggest you reflect on why many on the left do not see Boris as a safe pair of hands and why we will do what we can to deny him a big majority. You might not like what I report, but that’s the way it is.
    I managed to turn a 2017 Tory Remainer back to the Tories today over fear of Corbyn in Chingford and Woodford Green
    Good work.
    Chingford still toss up or have you got it now
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604

    ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre

    Is this just a rumour at the moment? It may be one of those fake poll accounts.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    What utter rubbish.

    This BMG poll has Labour on 33% and the LDs on 13% ie almost identical to the 32% Yougov MRP had Labour on and the 13% it had the LDs on.

    That Yougov MRP gave a Tory majority of 68.

    The only difference of any significance is Yougov had the Tories on 43% and BMG has the Tories on 39%, partly due to the Brexit Party being back up to 4% with BMG. The Tories can still squeeze that Brexit Party vote and Labour have already squeezed the LDs about as hard as they will go
    As long as HY remains calm and sane he actually is doing a good job of interpreting polls without attempt to ramp in a stupid attempt to boost the Tory vote. Whilst he might want to invade Scotland at the moment his cool belief that it’s going fine for team blue is actually more believable than the bed wetters who think they can either change markets or opinions on here. I don’t agree with where he is coming from but for those wishing to risk your money you should listen to him.
  • Andy_JS said:

    ComRes 2% is extraordinary if true - Labour have a decent chance of avoiding the Lib Dems entirely in such a case.

    2% would be better than 2017 in terms of gap, how bizarre

    Is this just a rumour at the moment? It may be one of those fake poll accounts.
    Yeah was bollocks, 10 point lead for Tories
  • kinabalu said:

    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the economy. He will lead to the exodus of whole communities. His ideology on foreign policy will lead to British citizens being needlessly killed. He is a disgrace to your party and to his country. He shouldn't ever come near the premiership in a month of Sundays.
    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.
    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.
    You disgust me.

    You sound deranged. Really, you do.
    No, I'm bang on.

    And my contempt extends to you ten-fold (I actually like Jonathan) because you're campaigning for the c**t.

    If he gets into Downing Street you have blood on your hands.

    I won't let you forget it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    That’s much better!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ..
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
    Paid for by what, borrowing, brexit bonus, sneaky flat tax rise, sneaky less money for council or ministries?
    Noone gives a shit how anything is paid for, see this Waspi bung.
    That's not quite true. People will vote for any amount of public spending and any amount of freebie gifts, and of course these things are going to be wildly popular - on one condition.

    The free everything must be paid for by someone else.

    If enough voters think that free everything will be paid for by the rich (variously described as big corporations, billionaries or anyone earning at least £1 per year more than they do) then Labour will win.

    When they find out that they're actually paying the bill themselves then they'll cry and scream and whinge like fury, though by then, of course, it will be too late.
  • We've all got polls we can celebrate tonight, yay
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    You should be.

    Even a Conservative win this year will be followed by a Corbynista majority in 2024.

    Because the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.
    No it won't, Corbyn will never win a majority, the Tories now lead with all voters aged over 40
    Every year there's another 400k voters weighed down with student debt.
    So what, free tuition is unaffordable without suicidal tax increases and even amongst 20 year olds 60 to 70% do not go to university anyway and should not have to subsidise the 30% that do and those who do go and study subjects that will get a well paid job e.g. economics, business, corporate law, physics, engineering etc will still end up Tories on the whole by middle age.

    As I've been saying the Conservative party is in denial about student debt.

    You never learn do you.
    Neither do you it seems, free tuition paid for by the working class through tax rises would be electoral suicide for the Tories
  • malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
    Utterly insane. It's not dislike. It's real visceral and well founded fear. Corbyn is a Marxist plain and simple running on a socialist platform. He will destroy the

    He does because of donkey on a red rosette people. Like you. Despite you being a moderate and professed opponent of him and his views. You prefer to rationalise your robotic need to cast a vote for Labour by pantomime villain Tories in your mind.

    I hold you beneath contempt for what you are facilitating.

    You disgust me.
    Get a life
    Fuck off Malcolm.

    You called me an arsehole the other day because I dared to criticize the SNP.
    Tories are really losing their shit over Corbyn. I don't even like him but if Tories hate him this much maybe he's alright.
This discussion has been closed.