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  • Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.
  • We'#re expecting a nicer poll for the Tories a bit later. But reactions to London Bridge are not factored in either way, and it's hard to predict - possibly nothing, since no party is really responsible for what one individual does.

    Overall, I think the move of Labour Leavers back to Labour is consistent with the belief that people in places like Bolsover really find it difficult to vote Tory in the end.

    Who's we?
  • nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    I am.
    Can u have a word with CCHQ, please.

    Tell them to get their act together.
    I have nothing to do with CCHQ so no not really.
  • We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    nico67 said:

    As an ardent Remainer even if the Tories offered me 30,000 pounds I’d say get lost , and I’m sure there are Leavers who would think the same about the Labour pledge but there’s a lot of other people who aren’t so fussed either way about the EU who might think thanks !

    There are very few principles in this world that are valued at more than £10k. Its the point an honorable person will do a dishonorable thing.
    A woman was in a railway carriage. A man spoke to her.
    ‘Would you kiss me for a pound?’
    ‘No!’ She snapped.
    ‘Would you kiss me for a thousand pounds?’
    There was a long pause.
    ‘Yes,’ she finally replied.
    ‘Would you kiss me for £5?’
    ‘Certainly not!’ exclaimed the woman. ‘What sort of person do you think I am?’
    ‘We’ve established that. Now I’m haggling.’
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Betting post

    Seems a number of the tactical voting sites have changed their guidance and are now suggesting voting Labour in Southport rather than LD. Also read that there are a lot of Labour/Unite volunteers out canvassing to "turn Merseyside all red". Ladbrokes and others still have Labour at 5/1 and third. Value ?

    Separately (and recognising that it is sometimes a head fake) does anyone have a list of which constituencies Jo Swinson has been campaigning in over the past week or so ? Trying to gague whether the LibDems are feeling aggressive or defensive. in targeting.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019
    Basically the tories need to get the polling moving back in their direction generally at any point from now given there would no longer be time to brake the momentum and reverse it
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    The Tories are just pissed they didn't think of it first.
  • Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    You did a piece a while back and polls over/under sampling 2016 Leave voters. Are you still monitoring that?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Noones going to get any WASPI cash. The only thing reduced Tory seats at this point leads to is a high chance of a no deal Brexit and the pound crashing.

    I think the reverse . That’s the only policy I would definitely believe will be delivered . Failing to pay up would be disastrous at future elections .
    Just read the Lib Dem position on it and you may well be correct. I thought they'd be opposed to such nonsense.
    What have Labour actually promised? What I have heard is statements like righting a historic wrong, etc.

    That doesn't mean they are paying 30 k.
    They have an online calculator telling you how much you'd get if you vote Labour.
    If I identify as a middle-aged woman can I be eligible?
    £47.6k between my other half's and my mum.
  • MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UONfi1pwQzI
  • Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Neither would Boris's.

    What *does* do damage is him dodging the debates and Andrew Neil.

    Fuckwit. Redoing Theresa May's mistakes.

    Fuckwit.

    Even if he did the debate now he's made it a story about trying to evade it and then giving in.
    Yep.

    Fuckwit.
    I don't think Neil and the debates have done much damage. Corbyn is literally giving people thousands of pounds. It's like the people's postcode lottery showing up on your doorstep. That cuts through.
    Contrarian view here, but I suspect what we're seeing is just low-information voters finally realising there's an election on.
    If the Tories get back in they need to reduce the time period from dissolution to election. It's far too long and allows way too many people who don't pay attention to crawl out the woodwork for Labour.
    They'll crawl out for Labour regardless.

    It's just the dog would bark sooner in a three week campaign compared to a five week one.
  • BJ sucks?

    Who knew?

    I’m sure he’ll win a majority.
  • nico67 said:

    As an ardent Remainer even if the Tories offered me 30,000 pounds I’d say get lost , and I’m sure there are Leavers who would think the same about the Labour pledge but there’s a lot of other people who aren’t so fussed either way about the EU who might think thanks !

    You believe they will ever actually see this money?

  • Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    You did a piece a while back and polls over/under sampling 2016 Leave voters. Are you still monitoring that?

    I haven’t had time. I’ve been very busy recently for reasons that will become apparent in due course.
  • MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
  • Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nico67 said:

    Perhaps Get Brexit Done is now wearing thin . The public might think they have nothing else to say . Where’s their vision for the country .

    Once brexit is done hundreds of billions can flow into the country, and 350 million extra every week for NHS.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Another point for the this is 2017 all over again gang. The Tories pulled away a little in the last few days of 2017s campaign....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Morning all. What did I miss?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited November 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Basically the tories need to get the polling moving back in their direction generally at any point from now given there would no longer be time to brake the momentum and reverse it

    Is this NHS in the poll. Voters know brexit means that US trade deal.
    The run up to ballot box is Trump in the country saying that trade deal will be easiest thing in world between himself and Boris.
    Mind you Trump will deny he wants to wreck the NHS, so that should reassure many people.
  • PaulM said:

    Betting post

    Seems a number of the tactical voting sites have changed their guidance and are now suggesting voting Labour in Southport rather than LD. Also read that there are a lot of Labour/Unite volunteers out canvassing to "turn Merseyside all red". Ladbrokes and others still have Labour at 5/1 and third. Value ?

    Separately (and recognising that it is sometimes a head fake) does anyone have a list of which constituencies Jo Swinson has been campaigning in over the past week or so ? Trying to gague whether the LibDems are feeling aggressive or defensive. in targeting.

    FWIW. I understood the Wirral constituencies were turning blue. The majority of Merseyside still stick with Labour through hating Conservatives because of Hillsborough. The verdict this week may have reinforced this.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    Not necessarily. This could be the don’t knows firming up or net people passing through other parties.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    egg said:

    Basically the tories need to get the polling moving back in their direction generally at any point from now given there would no longer be time to brake the momentum and reverse it

    Is this NHS in the poll. Voters know brexit means that US trade deal.
    The run up to ballot box is Trump in the country saying that trade deal will be easiest thing in world between himself and Boris.
    Mind you Trump will deny he wants to wreck the NHS, so that should reassure many people.
    Yes because Trump never lies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    Still haven't met a single one. I don't buy the Tory vote falling much. Labour rise is due to increased certainty to vote.
    Still won't be surprised if 24 hours before polling, Farage instructs his Brexit voters to hold their nose and vote Tory. Not all will - but I suspect most would, if couched in terms of "last chance to implement Brexit". It's the only way he gets any leverage now - "my people saved your skin, Tories. So how about some payback?"
  • Another point for the this is 2017 all over again gang. The Tories pulled away a little in the last few days of 2017s campaign....

    No they didn't....

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris has a poll later. Chris has a narrowing of the gap, or is a top troll.

    The above from Martin Boon. Chris is with YouGov and tweeted in respect of the BMG 'its beginning to look a lot like 2017'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWa0dZMHYeE
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The only safe way to protect against hard Brexit is to remove Boris from Downing St.
  • Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    You did a piece a while back and polls over/under sampling 2016 Leave voters. Are you still monitoring that?

    I haven’t had time. I’ve been very busy recently for reasons that will become apparent in due course.

    That is intriguing!

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Another point for the this is 2017 all over again gang. The Tories pulled away a little in the last few days of 2017s campaign....

    No they didn't....

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
    I'm referring to what was stated by YouGov, not by your elbow
  • nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    Another economic collapse like Gordon Brown's is not a good look either.
  • One other thought. Whether it actually has an impact or not, the retrospective narrative of this election will be that it was the final debate that made the difference either way. The media is going to love that narrative.
  • If we legitimately end up with an unchanged Parliament (I think unlikely, because the SNP will presumably take some Tory seats so they'd be down), what on Earth do we do?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    egg said:

    Basically the tories need to get the polling moving back in their direction generally at any point from now given there would no longer be time to brake the momentum and reverse it

    Is this NHS in the poll. Voters know brexit means that US trade deal.
    The run up to ballot box is Trump in the country saying that trade deal will be easiest thing in world between himself and Boris.
    Mind you Trump will deny he wants to wreck the NHS, so that should reassure many people.
    "Mind you Trump will deny he wants to wreck the NHS, so that should reassure many people"

    ...that he's absolutely determined to wreck the NHS. Trump's the ONLY politician on earth less trusted in Britain than our own dear fat lying sexpest
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    nico67 said:

    Perhaps Get Brexit Done is now wearing thin . The public might think they have nothing else to say . Where’s their vision for the country .

    Socialism that was tried to destruction by Wilson & Callaghan?
    I think you will find that Jezza and John formed their political views opposing the centrism of Labour under Wilson and Callaghan.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    BMG had conservatives on 37% in mid november

    What were Labour at that point?

    And has HYUFD hacked your Account
  • BJ sucks?

    Who knew?

    I’m sure he’ll win a majority.

    Why are you sure?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    If we legitimately end up with an unchanged Parliament (I think unlikely, because the SNP will presumably take some Tory seats so they'd be down), what on Earth do we do?

    Laugh at Farage for his heroic efforts to thwart Brexit? ;)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The IFS rubbishing both the Labour and Tories manifestos was great news for the former . And the IFS calling Labours manifesto overly ambitious has helped .

    If both are crap but one at least looks ambitious and with a few bells and whistles on then why pick the crap one with little to get excited about .
  • glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    But the Tories wont do it first.

    Because they are in denial about student debt.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
  • I've spent the afternoon Lib Dem leafleting again. The mood amongst us, as a group, is quite mixed. The only consensus is that we're not going to do as well as we thought we might at the beginning of the campaign - but most of us still expect to get a few more seats than the polls are suggesting. As for the overall result our guesses range from a substantial Conservative majority (my opinion) to the Conservatives going backwards slightly on 2017.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Jason said:

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
    There's a good case to be made that charging 6% to students when the Govt. can borrow money at a fraction of that is not The Right Thing To Do. Remember, for every £1 pledged so far by the Tories, Labour has pledged £26.
    There's headroom.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    egg said:

    Basically the tories need to get the polling moving back in their direction generally at any point from now given there would no longer be time to brake the momentum and reverse it

    Is this NHS in the poll. Voters know brexit means that US trade deal.
    The run up to ballot box is Trump in the country saying that trade deal will be easiest thing in world between himself and Boris.
    Mind you Trump will deny he wants to wreck the NHS, so that should reassure many people.
    Labour just say he’s a proven liar and so is Bozo , why would you believe a word they say .
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    You did a piece a while back and polls over/under sampling 2016 Leave voters. Are you still monitoring that?

    I haven’t had time. I’ve been very busy recently for reasons that will become apparent in due course.
    Researching charities for the 100quid I'll be giving you when the LIbDems win St Albans..

  • Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    At the end of the day the country is split down the middle into two camps.

    It's very hard to "game" a clear win out of that because the other one quickly works out what you're up to and rallies to stop you.

    As you put it so well your three pineapples quickly become two lemons and a strawberry.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    It may be important to remember that the YouGov MRP study gave Labour 32% and 211 seats. Their current polling average is around 32%.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    The IFS rubbishing both the Labour and Tories manifestos was great news for the former . And the IFS calling Labours manifesto overly ambitious has helped .

    If both are crap but one at least looks ambitious and with a few bells and whistles on then why pick the crap one with little to get excited about .

    Surely you mean profligate?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Jonathan said:

    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.

    It's possible that no Tory leadership candidate could have won the leadership and the general election that follows — at least a pre-Brexit general election — because winning over party members means taking a positions that costs them a parliamentary majority.
    Of course this all goes back to 2017 and that disasterous decision to call an election.


  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.

    There is plenty of fear about Johnson and what he might do. I think he is a genuine threat to British democracy and to continued existence of the UK, for example. I find his self-obsession and willingness to do anything to retain power genuinely frightening. There is, though, more fear about Corbyn. And that’s why the Tories will win.

  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
  • BJ sucks?

    Who knew?

    I’m sure he’ll win a majority.

    Why are you sure?
    He’s hosing up Brexiteers in a way Mrs May couldn’t.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    As an ardent Remainer even if the Tories offered me 30,000 pounds I’d say get lost , and I’m sure there are Leavers who would think the same about the Labour pledge but there’s a lot of other people who aren’t so fussed either way about the EU who might think thanks !

    There are very few principles in this world that are valued at more than £10k. Its the point an honorable person will do a dishonorable thing.
    A woman was in a railway carriage. A man spoke to her.
    ‘Would you kiss me for a pound?’
    ‘No!’ She snapped.
    ‘Would you kiss me for a thousand pounds?’
    There was a long pause.
    ‘Yes,’ she finally replied.
    ‘Would you kiss me for £5?’
    ‘Certainly not!’ exclaimed the woman. ‘What sort of person do you think I am?’
    ‘We’ve established that. Now I’m haggling.’
    The GBS version was better
  • nico67 said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Agreed , it’s a bribe couched as a moral necessity and righting a wrong . The more the Tories moan about it the more advertising it gets . Labour then say okay so you’re not on the side of these woman . Thats not a good look .
    Get legal advice published as to whether it is legal under discrimination legislation? Throwing doubt on it (apart from the obvious point that Labour would bankrupt the public finances and crash the economy) is the best thing to partly neutralise.

    If The Tories got in with student debt interest rates reduced to base rates or base rate + 1 would that actually help their numbers?
  • Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    A five year hung parliament was the will of the people. In fact most people voted for parties who had ruled out No Deal.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    egg said:

    nico67 said:

    Perhaps Get Brexit Done is now wearing thin . The public might think they have nothing else to say . Where’s their vision for the country .

    Once brexit is done hundreds of billions can flow into the country, and 350 million extra every week for NHS.
    From where don’t be silly the only net inflow comes from remain.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    nunu2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Artist said:

    It's reversing the big rise in the last BMG. Their Tory leads during the campaign have been 8, 8, 13, 6

    It looks to me that their last poll was the outlier, this one does look much like the hard.

    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1200821024406867974?s=19
    That looks a bit better. It seems the last poll had the libdems too high and Lab too low.
    3% more to come to Lab from LD and 3% from Greens Lab 39% entirely possible if BMG figures are accurate.

    I suspect Opinium might still have a 14% lead and Lab still in 20's
  • Jason said:

    glw said:

    We have probably heard less about Brexit in the last four weeks than we did in the previous two years.

    And Boris thought he'd learnt from all of Theresa May's mistakes?

    It was so obvious it wouldn't be. General Elections never are.
    If Labour announce that they will wipe out student debt, that's probably enough for them to either get the most seats or win outright.
    And if the Tories do it first - and Labour have to magic up the extra money on top of the WASPI £58bn...... Game over.
    Would the Tories sacrifice one of their USPs - as being ecomically competent - to chuck an even bigger bribe at students, only for Labour to offer the same? That would be a real panic move.
    There's a good case to be made that charging 6% to students when the Govt. can borrow money at a fraction of that is not The Right Thing To Do. Remember, for every £1 pledged so far by the Tories, Labour has pledged £26.
    There's headroom.
    It doesn't matter how good the case is the Conservatives are in denial about student debt.

    Thy don't want to think about it, they don't want to talk about it ** and the don't want to do anything about it.

    ** Did student debt get mentioned by any of the Conservative leadership contenders this year ?
  • Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    Not necessarily. This could be the don’t knows firming up or net people passing through other parties.
    It could be a turnout or adjustment filter, yes.

    One thing I'm very confident on is the Tories polling 40%+

    I am confident of very little else.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    All the moaning about Corbyns neutral stance . Labours EU plan was the only one that had any hope of doing least damage to them .

    A chance to Remain and for Labour Leavers a softer Brexit protecting the economy but still a Brexit .
  • How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?

    It does on my end..
  • General Elections are extremely stressful.

    I'd like a good majority just so I don't have to worry about unstable Government for the next five years, and another GE or referendum around the corner.

    But, that's not going to happen.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Apparently ComRes is good as well?

    Link?
    2% is the Twitter rumour
  • Apparently ComRes is good as well?

    Link?
    2% is the Twitter rumour
    Ohhhhh
  • BJ sucks?

    Who knew?

    I’m sure he’ll win a majority.

    Why are you sure?
    He’s hosing up Brexiteers in a way Mrs May couldn’t.
    I'm looking at the polls and seeing very similar shares for both.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    There's a fear of a hard Brexit, I grant you that, but not of Boris. He's just a twat.

    Corbyn turns people's blood cold and keeps them awake at night.

    A real true visceral fear.
    I am sure you dislike Corbyn. You need to try to view the world through non Conservative eyes. I assure you five years of Boris Johnson scares people. Flanked by headbangers like Raab, Mogg and Patel is scares the bejesus out of me.

    In my experience, Labour people are frustrated and angry with Corbyn because he is struggling to get them out.
  • Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?

    The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Apparently ComRes is good as well?

    Link?
    2% is the Twitter rumour
    I’m confident Labour will get more than 2%.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    There are very few principles in this world that are valued at more than £10k. Its the point an honorable person will do a dishonorable thing.

    It depends how rich you are. Hence why it's harder to be principled when you're poor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    On student fees, we absolutely need to reduce fees to £3k again and refund all of those graduates who had the £9k fees. Admit we made the mistake and make amends for it.

    Not only is it the right thing to do, it also puts us on the side of young for once which is something we struggle with.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?

    It's because I'm the site technical administrator and I'm really busy right now with my new auto insurance venture.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If we legitimately end up with an unchanged Parliament (I think unlikely, because the SNP will presumably take some Tory seats so they'd be down), what on Earth do we do?

    We don’t though - all the Tory candidates have signed up to Boris’s deal so they have enough to get very close. Suspect there will be enough leavers on other benches to get it over the line
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdotal...

    I naturally know quite a few Labour voters in friends and family. Having spoken to many recently, Corbyn does not have the vote of a single one of them in the bag.

    Doesn’t mean they won’t vote Labour, but in 2017 the mood was different. So I’m not buying a Labour swing yet.

    I think the Tory campaign is helping Labour on that front. It’s reminding many of why they dislike Johnson so much. Things like the consistent lying, the dog whistles to bigots and xenophobes, and running away from Neil won’t cost the Tories votes directly, but they are likely to persuade more to switch back from LD/Green to Labour.

    Possibly. The fear of Boris is greater than the frustration and anger with Corbyn.
    No it isn't. There is no fear of Boris. The fear is of Corbyn.

    But, the campaign is reminding voters of why they don't like the Tories and Johnson so much. That's the killer.
    I assure you there is plenty of fear of Boris and what he will do egged on by his outriders. Hard Brexit is a year away and he has not ruled it out.
    Nobody beyond the political obsessive thinks that there is nothing to worry about once we get brexit done, the problem is it has been called no deal in 2020 when in reality it is wto brexit but no one is explaining and if they did no one is listening. If they get their WAIB through then as it stands there will be little or no scrutiny and maybe not even a vote. If you vote Tory you are putting all your trust in Johnson to do whatever is best for ....... Johnson
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris needs to rule out a hard Brexit in 12 months time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?

    The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
    I think there has to be a second referendum to get clarity on Brexit. The country somehow has to sort this and move on.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Another point for the this is 2017 all over again gang. The Tories pulled away a little in the last few days of 2017s campaign....

    No they didn't....

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
    I'm referring to what was stated by YouGov, not by your elbow
    You’d rather trust one flawed pollster than the PB elbow?
    Whaaaaaaaaaat
  • Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    rcs1000 said:

    How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?

    It's because I'm the site technical administrator and I'm really busy right now with my new auto insurance venture.
    Just whack Fastly in front of it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Ooo ooo waspi woman, see how Labour fly
    Ooo ooo waspi woman
    She got the loot in her eye eye eye ☺
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How come this site doesn't use HTTPS? Isn't this a bit of security concern?

    It's because I'm the site technical administrator and I'm really busy right now with my new auto insurance venture.
    Just whack Fastly in front of it.
    Will Fastly play nicely with the Vanilla integration? (Not that I know how Fastly works.)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Charles said:

    Why do any party supporters think their party deserves an overall majority? None of them have done anything to reach out to the unconvinced.

    The election was entirely unnecessary. It looks quite possible that all it will achieve is to clear out a large number of independent-minded, principled, experienced politicians.

    It was entirely necessary

    The Commons was not prepared to support the government and not prepared to fire them.

    An election is the only solution
    And if it produces substantially the same result as last time?
    The last Parliament was manageable. But the executive was too incompetent to manage it and too doctrinaire to compromise with it.
    Indeed the people wanted a hung parliament to force compromise.
    Tell Them Again!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Bollocks. The public are seeing through the risible "Boris".
    You should try it.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yep.
  • egg said:

    BobBeige said:

    Cons paying the price for a timid manifesto.

    Yes. It’s the big moment to get your positive messages across and it couldn’t have been flatter if they cancelled it.
    Should have been a big fat income tax or NI cut. Reward the grafters.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I honestly feel Labour has played Cummings at his own game.
    Cummings pioneered the idea of massive spending being vote winning - he gave Labour a free ticket when he announced the cost of their spending pledges.
    I literally can't think of anything that is going to tank the Labour polling now - everything has been thrown at them and they keep going up it seems, what more do they have?

    Everything has been thrown at them?

    Tories haven't touched them
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I'm still not worried.

    The only thing to take comfort from in this is that it implies a direct Tory > Lab swing.

    You can probably count the number of people doing that in the whole country on the fingers of one hand.
    I know more people than I have fingers on my hand who were going to vote Tory a month ago but are now reluctantly voting for PM Corbyn to stop Jester
    How many of them are getting bunged 25 grand by Corbyn ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    The Waspi pledge is the most brilliant, cynical, morally depraved election manoeuvre in modern history.

    Bollocks. The public are seeing through the risible "Boris".
    You should try it.
    That would work, if it were not for the suggestion that having seen through the risible Johnson they are now turning to the more risible Corbyn.
This discussion has been closed.