Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
That's not racism, and screaming racist like the boy who cried wolf is part of the reason we are where we are.
People who oppose racism also oppose bigotry and xenophobia. If your happy to embrace the profound ignorance that sees the children of foreign born taxpayers labelled as a burden then you are not serious about combatting terrorism.
Now you are moving your point - you specifically mentioned racism.
Do you have school age children?
Even if you don't you should be at least aware of several reports going back to the last Labour government of the strains on the system caused by mass immigration.
Unless you want to claim all of those were racist too?
I mentioned racism because those who are serious about combatting it do not indulge in bigotry and xenophobia. If you do not meet demand you put strains on the school system. The Tories are claiming that providing school places for the children of EU citizens will place extra burdens on the taxpayer. They fail to note that EU citizens are taxpayers, too, and that spending on education is an investment that delivers huge benefits.
You need to be on £35k a year to pass the threshold between contributor and net recipient. All those migrant workers in chicken factories, and picking fruit for minimum wage (plus a lovely sloops of child benefit and tax credits) are going to be paying next to no taxes.
Do you have even the slightest idea how many high-earning EU nationals from France and Germany, for instance, there have been in Britain, over the last 10 years ?
Also it's of note that the numbers will be tighter for Tories, as the author pointed out, the DUP are not given to support Johnson. The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn, a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10 b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play). In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial. Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed... So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9. Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat). They will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4) Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP number...
The wishful thinking was the DUP might support Corbyn!
That was never my inference, merely that they might abstain. However, it appears abstention becomes irrelevant when demonstrating confidence after a VONC vote...
Unless you plan to deport them before they get old the fact they are not old yet doesn't matter. They will get old and we will pay for them then.
Saying they're not old now is like suggesting if we borrow money we are making money because we suddenly have more of it - while ignoring the interest to be paid in the future.
The future cost of healthcare and pensions needs to be accounted for today in any cost/benefit analysis.
There are three times as many UK citizens of pensionable age living in the EU27 as there are EU citizens of pensionable age living in the UK.
EU citizens that have lived in the UK during their working lives and then retire here will have paid tax just like anyone else.
Don’t go quoting facts at them they don’t like it.
Accrued pension liabilities are a fact. They can't be ignored. Ignoring accruals is a fast way to fiscal ruin.
IMO we get a Corbyn government if Lab + SNP is greater than Con + DUP.
OK OK I will refine this. We definitely get PM Corbyn if Lab + SNP beats Con + DUP. But we could possibly get PM Corbyn so long as Lab are within about X of Con where X is about 50. Ish.
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%. What time are these polls out?
Opinium is usually out about 7, the rest 8 to 10. They sometimes roll out earlier
Also it's of note that the numbers will be tighter for Tories, as the author pointed out, the DUP are not given to support Johnson. The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn, a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10 b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play). In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial. Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed... So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9. Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat). They will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4) Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP number...
The wishful thinking was the DUP might support Corbyn!
That was never my inference, merely that they might abstain. However, it appears abstention becomes irrelevant when demonstrating confidence after a VONC vote...
‘ The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn,’ That was not inferring they might vote for him?
Mr. Blue, except that the whole country pays the price if the far left gets its grubby hands on power.
I know that very well. I'm just saying that it's a good thing that the voters who are enabling a Corbyn + SNP government should have full advance knowledge of the outcome they're creating, and their responsibility for it.
Also it's of note that the numbers will be tighter for Tories, as the author pointed out, the DUP are not given to support Johnson. The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn, a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10 b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play). In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial. Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed... So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9. Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat). They will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4) Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP number...
The wishful thinking was the DUP might support Corbyn!
That was never my inference, merely that they might abstain. However, it appears abstention becomes irrelevant when demonstrating confidence after a VONC vote...
It seems to me that, in terms of the numbers require to for a government in the next parliament, the DUP will be no more and no less influential than Sinn Fein.
So in a hung parliament, Corbyn is guaranteed unless:
a) numbers are very tight and DUP go with Johnson and against Corbyn - is that likely?
YES. In fact, it might be considered nearly certain. Do you bother to read replies to your posts?
Shh - there is a narrative to push
I suggested wrongly they would automatically be able to form a minority government.
Crunching the numbers, the answer is somewhere inbetween - probably around 254 seats (depending on how many seats LD and SNP get) and Labour would be able to force a VONC and demonstrate confidence.
Also it's of note that the numbers will be tighter for Tories, as the author pointed out, the DUP are not given to support Johnson. The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn, a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10 b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play). In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial. Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed... So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9. Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat). They will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4) Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP number...
The wishful thinking was the DUP might support Corbyn!
That was never my inference, merely that they might abstain. However, it appears abstention becomes irrelevant when demonstrating confidence after a VONC vote...
Abstention in a VONC is just that an abstention it doesn’t imply a vote either was. The only vote I’m aware of when an abstention is a vote against is in the 2/3 majority required to call an early election.
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
That's not racism, and screaming racist like the boy who cried wolf is part of the reason we are where we are.
It is used as an attempt to shut down debate.
The left dont understand that them shutting down debate on this issue, is why we have Trump and Leave. They will never ever get it. The right can promise big spending but the left are too afraid to utter the words "controlled immigration".
What debate are we having? The government is declaring the children of EU citizens a burden on taxpayers while failing to acknowledge that EU citizens are themselves taxpayers or that investing in educating children delivers multiple benefits.
And that we haven't had to pay for the education and training of the EU adults, and they are generally not old and therefore not a burden on the NHS.
Unless you plan to deport them before they get old the fact they are not old yet doesn't matter. They will get old and we will pay for them then.
Saying they're not old now is like suggesting if we borrow money we are making money because we suddenly have more of it - while ignoring the interest to be paid in the future.
The future cost of healthcare and pensions needs to be accounted for today in any cost/benefit analysis.
But it is heavily discounted. The net present cost of healthcare and pensions of a young EU national working here is a lot less than that of the average Brit.
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
That's not racism, and screaming racist like the boy who cried wolf is part of the reason we are where we are.
It is used as an attempt to shut down debate.
The left dont understand that them shutting down debate on this issue, is why we have Trump and Leave. They will never ever get it. The right can promise big spending but the left are too afraid to utter the words "controlled immigration".
What debate are we having? The government is declaring the children of EU citizens a burden on taxpayers while failing to acknowledge that EU citizens are themselves taxpayers or that investing in educating children delivers multiple benefits.
And that we haven't had to pay for the education and training of the EU adults, and they are generally not old and therefore not a burden on the NHS.
Unless you plan to deport them before they get old the fact they are not old yet doesn't matter. They will get old and we will pay for them then.
Saying they're not old now is like suggesting if we borrow money we are making money because we suddenly have more of it - while ignoring the interest to be paid in the future.
The future cost of healthcare and pensions needs to be accounted for today in any cost/benefit analysis.
But it is heavily discounted. The net present cost of healthcare and pensions of a young EU national working here is a lot less than that of the average Brit.
Agreed. Not disagreeing with that. But it's not zero. Too many people want to ignore that altogether when doing numbers. I'm not making a value judgment (I am pro immigration) just a mathematical one.
One thing to bear in mind tonight when we pore over the polls is that about 6 million votes will be postal and they have and are already being returned in large numbers.
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%.
Sounds about right. And for me 42+ is baked in for the Cons. 44/32/13. C75.
Also it's of note that the numbers will be tighter for Tories, as the author pointed out, the DUP are not given to support Johnson. The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn, a) their numbers are likely to be no more than 8, rather than the previous 10 b) Alliance and SDLP will likely have seats that come into play, on Corbyn's side (SDLP) or abstaining (Alliance?) (as opposed to the SF seats that are not in play). In a tight numbers game, that will be crucial. Additionally, the Lab rebels (and LD and Con) have largely been routed or departed... So as the author points out, a much cleaner party line when it comes to VONC and Brexit votes....
I suggest the DUP will win 6, at most 7 seats and SF 9. Which leaves 2 ALL and 1 SDLP. Maybe 1 UUP in South Antrim (or the 7th DUP seat). They will very likely lose: Belfast North, South and East.
On that basis, (and with SNP getting 49, LD 4, IND 1 (E Devon?), GRN 1, PC 4) Then Con need 302 to block Corbyn minority [or 313 - if Lab gets active support of LD+ALL]
Of course if LD get less, SNP more, or UUP take a seat from DUP, then the dynamics change significantly on a very few MP number...
The wishful thinking was the DUP might support Corbyn!
That was never my inference, merely that they might abstain. However, it appears abstention becomes irrelevant when demonstrating confidence after a VONC vote...
‘ The DUP might abstain or vote against LAB and CON. Even if they voted against Corbyn,’ That was not inferring they might vote for him?
Perhaps so. But it was clearly not suggesting that was likely, and therefore not wishful thinking as *you* suggested, which triggered these replies. I think it's taken out of context, just as if someone suggested "unless Johnson appoints McDonnell as Chancellor he won't get the job", you can argue that they inferred Johnson might appoint McDonnell as Chancellor, but that would be somewhat distorting the point they were making.
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
Rubbish. We have a right to control immigration.
I'm glad Tories are finally campaigning on immigration.
Hardly any immigrants from the EU arrive here with kids. The government therefore has five years to prepare for them starting school. We won a world war in less than five years, a competent government would make sure there were enough school places. Blaming the kids for being here is pathetic and exposes the Tories as the bigots that they are.
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%.
Yes. And for me 42+ is baked in for the Cons. 44/32/13. C75.
You don't think Labour squeeze the Illiberal Non-Democrats some more? I do. And for the Tories to get 44%, all those flat cap Fred lifelong Labour voters are going to have to break the habit of a lifetime. Again, I don't see it. 40%, yes, 42%, maybe, 44% huge stretch.
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
Rubbish. We have a right to control immigration.
I'm glad Tories are finally campaigning on immigration.
Hardly any immigrants from the EU arrive here with kids. The government therefore has five years to prepare for them starting school. We won a world war in less than five years, a competent government would make sure there were enough school places. Blaming the kids for being here is pathetic and exposes the Tories as the bigots that they are.
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%.
Yes. And for me 42+ is baked in for the Cons. 44/32/13. C75.
You don't think Labour squeeze the Illiberal Non-Democrats some more? I do. And for the Tories to get 44%, all those flat cap Fred lifelong Labour voters are going to have to break the habit of a lifetime. Again, I don't see it. 40%, yes, 42%, maybe, 44% huge stretch.
44% could happen based on last elections voters but with differential turnout. Not saying it will but it's definitely possible.
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
That's not racism, and screaming racist like the boy who cried wolf is part of the reason we are where we are.
It is used as an attempt to shut down debate.
The left dont understand that them shutting down debate on this issue, is why we have Trump and Leave. They will never ever get it. The right can promise big spending but the left are too afraid to utter the words "controlled immigration".
What debate are we having? The government is declaring the children of EU citizens a burden on taxpayers while failing to acknowledge that EU citizens are themselves taxpayers or that investing in educating children delivers multiple benefits.
And that we haven't had to pay for the education and training of the EU adults, and they are generally not old and therefore not a burden on the NHS.
Unless you plan to deport them before they get old the fact they are not old yet doesn't matter. They will get old and we will pay for them then.
Saying they're not old now is like suggesting if we borrow money we are making money because we suddenly have more of it - while ignoring the interest to be paid in the future.
The future cost of healthcare and pensions needs to be accounted for today in any cost/benefit analysis.
But it is heavily discounted. The net present cost of healthcare and pensions of a young EU national working here is a lot less than that of the average Brit.
Agreed. Not disagreeing with that. But it's not zero. Too many people want to ignore that altogether when doing numbers. I'm not making a value judgment (I am pro immigration) just a mathematical one.
Yes it would be good to see some objective numbers on the costs of immigration, but as we’ve seen on this thread it needs to be done sensitively. We know that footballers are massive net contributors, and Big Issue sellers with families are a massive cost, but some quantitative analysis would be useful to being to the debate as we decide what an immigration system should look like. I think the most difficult thing to measure would be the cost of housing increasing, as house building fails to keep pace with population growth.
You don't think Labour squeeze the Illiberal Non-Democrats some more? I do. And for the Tories to get 44%, all those flat cap Fred lifelong Labour voters are going to have to break the habit of a lifetime. Again, I don't see it. 40%, yes, 42%, maybe, 44% huge stretch.
I think "Get Brexit Done" plus suspicion of Corbyn will bring this home for Boris. I see big Con gains from Labour in the North and (particularly) the Midlands. No model, though. It's my usual 'feel it' stuff. Now I happen to know that I am much better than most when it comes to this sort of thing - but you don't know that so you should carry on worrying
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
Rubbish. We have a right to control immigration.
I'm glad Tories are finally campaigning on immigration.
Hardly any immigrants from the EU arrive here with kids. The government therefore has five years to prepare for them starting school. We won a world war in less than five years, a competent government would make sure there were enough school places. Blaming the kids for being here is pathetic and exposes the Tories as the bigots that they are.
Do you have a citation for the first sentence?
825,000 extra school places since 2010. Population growth by British citizens is below replacement.
You don't think Labour squeeze the Illiberal Non-Democrats some more? I do. And for the Tories to get 44%, all those flat cap Fred lifelong Labour voters are going to have to break the habit of a lifetime. Again, I don't see it. 40%, yes, 42%, maybe, 44% huge stretch.
I think "Get Brexit Done" plus suspicion of Corbyn will bring this home for Boris. I see big Con gains from Labour in the North and (particularly) the Midlands. No model, though. It's my usual 'feel it' stuff. Now I happen to know that I am much better than most when it comes to this sort of thing - but you don't know that so you should carry on worrying
I agree with that assessment. Which has made me bring up a little sick in my mouth.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
Nonsense. They will know labour are on the brink of financial ruin when the racism report comes out and in no position to fight another election and keen to capitalize. And they wont put Corbyn in number 10. They arent idiots.
I wouldn't have said Mrs Beckett was an idiot, either.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%.
Sounds about right. And for me 42+ is baked in for the Cons. 44/32/13. C75.
I suggest from Lab on around 253 they have a chance of forming a minority government. It's tight though. If DUP lose a seat to UUP, or SNP take more Tory seats the number goes down significantly. Alliance have intimated they might support Corbyn, that would take down what Lab needs even more...
Lab 252 (253 less 1 deputy) Plus assumed support of: SNP 49, IND 1, GRN 1, SDLP 1, PC 4 TOTAL 56 = TOTAL CORBYN 308
Abstention from: 3 DEPUTIES, 1 SPK, 9 SF, 2 ALL, LD 20 TOTAL 35 Gov whip/confidence and supply CON 300 (302 less 2 deputies), DUP 7 = TOTAL JOHNSON 307
Nonsense. They will know labour are on the brink of financial ruin when the racism report comes out and in no position to fight another election and keen to capitalize. And they wont put Corbyn in number 10. They arent idiots.
I wouldn't have said Mrs Beckett was an idiot, either.
Oh I would. She always was a complete dingus magee
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
Another who tackled the terrorist was a convicted murderer out on licence. Allegedly the terrorist had asked for help with deradicalisation but the (privatised???) probation service couldn't provide it.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
Aren't the tory shire seats average electorate size thousands of people bigger than the Labour Leave seats they are tatgetting? Especially since we haven't had boundary changes in a while?
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Aren't the tory shire seats average electorate size thousands of people bigger than the Labour Leave seats they are tatgetting? Especially since we haven't had boundary changes in a while?
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
It would be worse under Corbyn
That is the Corbynista line, of course: "Jeremy might be a bit anti-Semitic, but the Tories are worse."
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
So what you’re saying is rehab policies shouldn’t be trashed and you’d disagree with Johnson who will now go all out to throw some meat to the baying mob as long as it helps him get elected .
Aren't the tory shire seats average electorate size thousands of people bigger than the Labour Leave seats they are tatgetting? Especially since we haven't had boundary changes in a while?
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
Aren't the tory shire seats average electorate size thousands of people bigger than the Labour Leave seats they are tatgetting? Especially since we haven't had boundary changes in a while?
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
Interesting point.
I think that we all feel the electoral system we have isn't fit for purpose. Any dispute is over the replacement.
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
Indeedy. That's why ongoing MRPs will be verrrrry interesting, unlike last time when they barely moved.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Kept anything back? So far it seems they've kept everything back!
Lovely to see the Tories embracing bigotry, xenophobia and ignorance so wholeheartedly. One thing we do know: anyone who says they are voting Tory because of Labour anti-Semitism is not serious about combatting racism. https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200688354192437249?s=21
That's not racism, and screaming racist like the boy who cried wolf is part of the reason we are where we are.
People who oppose racism also oppose bigotry and xenophobia. If you’re happy to embrace the profound ignorance that sees the children of foreign born taxpayers labelled as a burden then you are not serious about combatting terrorism.
Except what you quoted is none of the above, and trying to make out it is just convinces people to switch off to real racism such as is happening within the Left. But what really gets me is you seem to be trying to link anti-racism and combatting terrorism, which is shockingly naive. Remind me, how many Polish terrorists have we had? Chinese? Indian Hindus? Are you saying they've never experienced racism?
Where did I mention terrorism?
It is pure bigotry and xenophobia to imply that EU citizens are not taxpayers and that educating their children is a burden.
Where did you mention terrorism? Erm, like the post I quoted above maybe? Helpfully I've bolded for you. As has already been mentioned below actually many of the EU citizens who would not be eligible to work in the UK assuming some points based system for are quite possibly not net taxpayers. If stating facts is now beyond the pale then we are in some Orwellian nightmare.
Very fair point! I meant to write racism. God knows where terrorism came from. Apologies.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
I bloody hope so.
Sky said the other day that an anti Brexit campaign group had the third highest expenditure on Facebook over the past week. Behind the Lib Dems and Labour. Where were the Tories?
The only thing I can think/hope is that they are saving their budget for a blitz in the final days. But there's already only 10 more campaigning days left and postal votes are going in already.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
One thing to bear in mind tonight when we pore over the polls is that about 6 million votes will be postal and they have and are already being returned in large numbers.
And opened for verification where party agents and their helpers are allowed into watch. That means in a lot of seats real votes are being seen and although nobody is allowed to reveal what is happening keep an eye on betting mkts because these real.botes matter.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Kept anything back? So far it seems they've kept everything back!
This is precisely the 2017 strategy, but then it was fubarred by the inadequacies of Tim Farron and Nick Timothy.
If we get to tight numbers, I suppose the Tories don’t HAVE to provide two deputy speakers. Would be a big break with convention but we’ve seen a few of them in recent times.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Kept anything back? So far it seems they've kept everything back!
This is precisely the 2017 strategy, but then it was fubarred by the inadequacies of Tim Farron and Nick Timothy.
Wasn’t one of the Cummings nine thousand word blog posts/streams of consciousness about how Vote Leave saved all the spending to the end? Can imagine this campaign being informed by that one.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
Your point is what? You regret that the former murderer bravely tackled the terrorist?
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Probably not. The Tories tend to be all piss and wind in this regard. In 2017 some killer revelation about Corbyn was hinted at but never materialized. And remember Cummings's assurance that we'd Brexit on 31 October because he'd formulated some magical secret plan to scupper the Benn Act.
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
Indeedy. That's why ongoing MRPs will be verrrrry interesting, unlike last time when they barely moved.
Could be other way round. Safe seats even safer, misses in north even closer.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
Grenfell was a 'Dianafication' moment in British politics. Extraordinary scenes, almost everything claimed was based on conspiracy etc. Some of the behavior from people who should know better. It was pure Bonfire of the Vanities stuff.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
Nor did it stop him trying to make political capital after the terrorist attack in Manchester during the last election campaign.
I can see no legitimate reason to put this out unless she is inciting action against Bennathan. I would expect the police to, at least, look into whether there is a case for harrassment or even incitement to violence. I am sure she would deny both but would love to hear her alternative explanation. And yes, I would make the same comment about the editors who have chosen to point the finger.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Probably not. The Tories tend to be all piss and wind in this regard. In 2017 some killer revelation about Corbyn was hinted at but never materialized. And remember Cummings's assurance that we'd Brexit on 31 October because he'd formulated some magical secret plan to scupper the Benn Act.
I expected a bit of radicalism. Student loans to graduate tax, full medicinal legalisation and licensing of cannabis, open British Citizenship to anyone from Hong Kong.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
It would be worse under Corbyn
That is the Corbynista line, of course: "Jeremy might be a bit anti-Semitic, but the Tories are worse."
Only one of the 2 major parties shares the dubious history of being investigated for institutionalised racism - that is Labour
The same Labour that are now threatening to make the independent investigator they set up "truly independent"
Could be other way round. Safe seats even safer, misses in north even closer.
Might be - but one of the interesting things about 2017 was that the May vote ended up reasonably efficient. With a 2.4% lead she got 317, against say Cameron 7%ish lead and got 306.
If many of the 2017 patterns repeat themselves, it might be Johnson can get a tight working majority with a 4% or even 3% lead.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
Grenfell was quite different - it was a preventable tragedy not a terrorist attack, the number of deaths was an order of magnitude different, there were legitimate questions to be asked about government policies that could have contributed to the tragedy, it didn't happen during an election, the government's own response was woefully inadequate, there was widespread anger in the community that required a political response to help to calm it, do I need to go on or do you understand what a moronic comment that was?
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Kept anything back? So far it seems they've kept everything back!
This is precisely the 2017 strategy, but then it was fubarred by the inadequacies of Tim Farron and Nick Timothy.
And it may happen again. I look forward to plans being derailed by pictures of Boris humping a shop dummy or racially insulting any number of ethnic groups or nationalities around the globe.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
Another who tackled the terrorist was a convicted murderer out on licence. Allegedly the terrorist had asked for help with deradicalisation but the (privatised???) probation service couldn't provide it.
I am saying bullshit on that one. Sorry but you don't go from asking for help to deradicalize to killing people with machetes like that. If he was asking for help it as merely a cover to help his case for being released.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
Your point is what? You regret that the former murderer bravely tackled the terrorist?
Reformed possibly, but I don't think it possible to be a former murderer.
IMO we get a Corbyn government if Lab + SNP is greater than Con + DUP.
OK OK I will refine this. We definitely get PM Corbyn if Lab + SNP beats Con + DUP. But we could possibly get PM Corbyn so long as Lab are within about X of Con where X is about 50. Ish.
I believe there'll be a fully functioning government implementing a full queen's speech if Labour get 275 seats or if Cons get 325 seats. I believe the former is impossible with the tory share above 40%. The latter is impossible if the tory share falls below 40%. What time are these polls out?
Opinium is usually out about 7, the rest 8 to 10. They sometimes roll out earlier
No one is going to believe that. No Tory majority if they get below 40? No. You are on your own.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
Your point is what? You regret that the former murderer bravely tackled the terrorist?
Reformed possibly, but I don't think it possible to be a former murderer.
Excellent! BTW thank you for the response yesterday which was illuminating.
Seems to me as I said before, the main thing is to ensure that the parole board is used in all cases, which I understand it is now. But I wonder if they can change the law so it applies retrospectively.
We really must not tar all (former) criminals with the same brush, one of the heroes was also on release and saved a lot of lives.
I have been wondering if the Tories has kept anything back for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. It feels like Lab have already played most of their cards with the NHS documents and the WASPI bung.
Kept anything back? So far it seems they've kept everything back!
This is precisely the 2017 strategy, but then it was fubarred by the inadequacies of Tim Farron and Nick Timothy.
And it may happen again. I look forward to plans being derailed by pictures of Boris humping a shop dummy or racially insulting any number of ethnic groups or nationalities around the globe.
And of course, we haven't seen that Russian dossier yet...
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
They need to take a leaf out of the book of Father of the PB house Big_G and not try to point score off an event like this.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
Grenfell was quite different - it was a preventable tragedy not a terrorist attack, the number of deaths was an order of magnitude different, there were legitimate questions to be asked about government policies that could have contributed to the tragedy, it didn't happen during an election, the government's own response was woefully inadequate, there was widespread anger in the community that required a political response to help to calm it, do I need to go on or do you understand what a moronic comment that was?
As almost all of those apply here, I’m afraid you’re not justifying your position. That said I agree with @CorrectHorseBattery as I have done for much of the day, in fact, that any attempt to make capital out of this is disgraceful. Equally, it has to be said politicians are in rather a bind as we see here - damned if they visit the scene for making capital. And damned if they stay away for not showing empathy. I have to say, I have some sympathy over that.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
While that’s a valid POV, that didn’t stop him at Grenfell.
Grenfell was a 'Dianafication' moment in British politics. Extraordinary scenes, almost everything claimed was based on conspiracy etc. Some of the behavior from people who should know better. It was pure Bonfire of the Vanities stuff.
You think it's appropriate to refer to a preventable tragedy in which dozens of innocent people were killed as a result of official negligence in such an offhand, trivialising way? Is a 'Bonfire' reference appropriate when talking about something in which children were burned to death in their own homes? Grenfell was one of the worst disasters in modern British history, and it should never have happened.
On the day we find out a brave Pole tackled the terrorist the Tories continue to resort to more despicable anti EU migrant rhetoric in their campaign literature.
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
On the day a brave murderer tackled the terrorist . See how stupid your point looks?
Your point is what? You regret that the former murderer bravely tackled the terrorist?
Reformed possibly, but I don't think it possible to be a former murderer.
It certainly is in the good ol' US of A, where a number of murder convictions have been overthrown recently after it became clear, even to the most biased observer, that they had the wrong man. We may make mistakes but I am very grateful we do not have a system where many parts of the judiciary and law enforcement are elected and (in some cases) prepared to do anything for reelection.
Could be other way round. Safe seats even safer, misses in north even closer.
Might be - but one of the interesting things about 2017 was that the May vote ended up reasonably efficient. With a 2.4% lead she got 317, against say Cameron 7%ish lead and got 306.
If many of the 2017 patterns repeat themselves, it might be Johnson can get a tight working majority with a 4% or even 3% lead.
You mean in 2010 Cameron. Why not take it back one further for your argument, Blair 2015 majority off what PV and gap. Honestly, near misses or efficient vote may be as much luck than trend.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
They need to take a leaf out of the book of Father of the PB house Big_G and not try to point score off an event like this.
Father of the house. How kind of you but I doubt I am always wise sadly
I wonder whether, if the SNP (on the pretext that Corbyn won't back a second IndyRef) and the Lib Dems (on the pretext that Corbyn is anathema) refuse to vote No Confidence in Johnson, allowing a Johnson ministry to limp on, we will see another general election in late spring? The Conservatives are dead-set against another referendum, and gave Theresa May the heave-ho, not for supporting another referendum, but for planning to allow a vote on one which she was not going to vigorously oppose. I know that Johnson is famed for his flexibility, but there are things that Conservative MPs simply won't allow - and a Conservative PM enabling a second Brexit referendum is one of them. The other thing is that Corbyn, if he fails to win enough MPs, or backing from other parties, to become PM, may well decide to call time on his leadership of Labour, and a new leader for Labour could change everything. Labour wouldn't want to be seen to being forced to choose a new leader by the SNP/Lib Dems, so it would make sense for Corbyn to use a failure to win more seats than the Tories as a reason to step aside - as he'd have taken the revolution as far as he could. I still expect Johnson to win his majority. Has anyone worked out how far the votes have to shift in the YouGov MRP for Johson to be denied a majority?
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
They need to take a leaf out of the book of Father of the PB house Big_G and not try to point score off an event like this.
The polls this evening are going to be fascinating
I'm sure you'll spin them into whatever you want them to say.
Yup, I've got Jezza on the phone already
Compare and contrast
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Johnson and Patel are there, quite rightly, in their jobs as prime minister and home secretary, respectively. The leader of the opposition has no business getting involved, and probably doesn't want to politicise an ongoing police investigation. This is desperate stuff, even from the demented Tory cheerleaders on here.
Corbyn is too busy being an utter wanker and trying to make political capital out of the terror attacks - blaming them on government cuts.
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
Frankly I think both parties are trying to get political capital out of this which I find disgraceful.
Almost certainly agreed. The only one I have seen so far this afternoon is the Corbyn clip on Sky but I don't doubt there will be others on the Government side making the counter claims.
They need to take a leaf out of the book of Father of the PB house Big_G and not try to point score off an event like this.
Comments
Ignoring accruals is a fast way to fiscal ruin.
Even if they voted against Corbyn,’
That was not inferring they might vote for him?
London Bridge attack victim named
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50615926
Crunching the numbers, the answer is somewhere inbetween - probably around 254 seats (depending on how many seats LD and SNP get) and Labour would be able to force a VONC and demonstrate confidence.
Inline with the suggestion of the article.
44/32/13.
C75.
But it was clearly not suggesting that was likely, and therefore not wishful thinking as *you* suggested, which triggered these replies.
I think it's taken out of context, just as if someone suggested "unless Johnson appoints McDonnell as Chancellor he won't get the job", you can argue that they inferred Johnson might appoint McDonnell as Chancellor, but that would be somewhat distorting the point they were making.
No model, though. It's my usual 'feel it' stuff. Now I happen to know that I am much better than most when it comes to this sort of thing - but you don't know that so you should carry on worrying
They really don’t care how much division is sowed , and whether their latest attacks on EU nationals might lead to more disgusting attacks on them like after the EU ref .
I’m utterly ashamed of what’s happening to the UK under this rancid government .
It's tight though. If DUP lose a seat to UUP, or SNP take more Tory seats the number goes down significantly.
Alliance have intimated they might support Corbyn, that would take down what Lab needs even more...
Lab 252 (253 less 1 deputy)
Plus assumed support of: SNP 49, IND 1, GRN 1, SDLP 1, PC 4 TOTAL 56
= TOTAL CORBYN 308
Abstention from: 3 DEPUTIES, 1 SPK, 9 SF, 2 ALL, LD 20 TOTAL 35
Gov whip/confidence and supply CON 300 (302 less 2 deputies), DUP 7
= TOTAL JOHNSON 307
Boris with Patel and Cressida Dick attending London Bridge personally shaking hands with the emergency services
Corbyn somewhere in Leeds fighting a losing battle to pursuade leave voters he is on their side
Allegedly the terrorist had asked for help with deradicalisation but the (privatised???) probation service couldn't provide it.
https://twitter.com/oceana/status/1197881472822251521
If the tory vote is down in the shires but they hold the seat and up in Labour Leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales where they gain the seat the tory vote will become incredibly efficient.
But Labour seem to be making a comeback there.
Sky said the other day that an anti Brexit campaign group had the third highest expenditure on Facebook over the past week. Behind the Lib Dems and Labour. Where were the Tories?
The only thing I can think/hope is that they are saving their budget for a blitz in the final days. But there's already only 10 more campaigning days left and postal votes are going in already.
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1200698340750610432?s=20
That means in a lot of seats real votes are being seen and although nobody is allowed to reveal what is happening keep an eye on betting mkts because these real.botes matter.
Biden retains his significant lead though
I said yesterday afternoon it was wrong to blame the prison service and parole board for the fact this man was released. They were operating within the constraints of the law. It is equally wrong to blame his release on lack of funding in the prison service. We could have the best funded service in the world (of course we are a long way from that) and he would still have been released as that is the law as our politicians have written it, based on a reasonable, decent principle that people can reform if given the chance.
The same Labour that are now threatening to make the independent investigator they set up "truly independent"
If many of the 2017 patterns repeat themselves, it might be Johnson can get a tight working majority with a 4% or even 3% lead.
can't parse this for the life of me.
No. You are on your own.
BTW thank you for the response yesterday which was illuminating.
We really must not tar all (former) criminals with the same brush, one of the heroes was also on release and saved a lot of lives.
That said I agree with @CorrectHorseBattery as I have done for much of the day, in fact, that any attempt to make capital out of this is disgraceful. Equally, it has to be said politicians are in rather a bind as we see here - damned if they visit the scene for making capital. And damned if they stay away for not showing empathy.
I have to say, I have some sympathy over that.
Honestly, near misses or efficient vote may be as much luck than trend.
With a bit of jellyfish?
The Conservatives are dead-set against another referendum, and gave Theresa May the heave-ho, not for supporting another referendum, but for planning to allow a vote on one which she was not going to vigorously oppose. I know that Johnson is famed for his flexibility, but there are things that Conservative MPs simply won't allow - and a Conservative PM enabling a second Brexit referendum is one of them.
The other thing is that Corbyn, if he fails to win enough MPs, or backing from other parties, to become PM, may well decide to call time on his leadership of Labour, and a new leader for Labour could change everything. Labour wouldn't want to be seen to being forced to choose a new leader by the SNP/Lib Dems, so it would make sense for Corbyn to use a failure to win more seats than the Tories as a reason to step aside - as he'd have taken the revolution as far as he could.
I still expect Johnson to win his majority. Has anyone worked out how far the votes have to shift in the YouGov MRP for Johson to be denied a majority?
@OldKingCole may have that accolade.