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Sub 150 and would a lefty leader actually be able to fill a shadow cabinet with moderates refusing to bend the knee?

rottenborough said:

NoSpaceName said:

nunu2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

Think we saw this earlier anyway.

This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

It's disastrous.

Labour will be panicking now.

It matters what they will be panicking about. Will they be panicking about the the scale of the defeat, or will they be panicking about how to secure the succession to Corbyn?

The latter has been the main occupation at the very top of the party for some time I suspect.

Yes. So the manifesto in some respects could be understood as crafted for the Party membership, to act as a litmus test for leadership candidates in the aftermath of the election. This also means that they are unlikely to take corrective action that might stem the losses, as their focus is on the internal party battle.

NoSpaceName said:

nunu2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

Think we saw this earlier anyway.

This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

It's disastrous.

Labour will be panicking now.

It matters what they will be panicking about. Will they be panicking about the the scale of the defeat, or will they be panicking about how to secure the succession to Corbyn?

In 2010 they were more interested in who would succeed brown rather than doing a deal with clegg so I think they will be positioning for the post corbyn leadership. Don’t be surprised when it’s even more left wing because Jeremy didn’t offer true socialism

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

If Labour end up in the 160 to 180 range how many Cooper Bennites would be left in the parliamentary party?

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

160? Labour could go below 150 with some of these polls.

But I get your point.

Btw, in train drivers, some of them earn a surprisingly high wage.

Some on £80k+

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD

City and Westminster
Poll 39/26/33
Model 50/30/20

Chelsea and Fulham
Poll 48/24/25
Model 56/24/20

Hendon
Poll 51/33/12
Model 52/44/4

So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.

The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.

This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.

242 !!!!

In aggregate 481.

Say 50 for SNP 18 NI plus 5 for PC/Green/BXP

565 in total

Has @barnesian deducted 100 from the Tory seat count...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198335553764286464

My first attempt was a fail...

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?

He would be better than most of the others, can we have that cat as well

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?

Probably will make a better Secretary of State than Priti Patel & Dominic Raab.

alex_ said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.

Corbyn will go down in history as the only person who could make Johnson electable, well done labour your blind stupidity yet again fails those you claim to want to help.

Second, after Livingstone...

If we are being silly then there isGalloway

Black_Rook said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.

There's just a chance that if Labour can find a left MP who: is able and willing to rid the party of antisemitism, looks forward to new ideas rather than back to the 1970s, and can bridge the cultural divide between metropolitan liberals and small town workers - that there is bright future for the Labour Left.

Any one of those three would be a massive improvement on Corbyn. It would also help if they could count, but walk before you run and all that.

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD

City and Westminster
Poll 39/26/33
Model 50/30/20

Chelsea and Fulham
Poll 48/24/25
Model 56/24/20

Hendon
Poll 51/33/12
Model 52/44/4

So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.

The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.

This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.

242 !!!!

In aggregate 481.

Say 50 for SNP 18 NI plus 5 for PC/Green/BXP

565 in total

Has @barnesian deducted 100 from the Tory seat count...

Yes It was a typo, sorry

342/209/30

By constituency, including constituency polls for comparison

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

Trebly depressing: audience member who got Harold Wilson's 1975 position wrong is on Labour's staff https://t.co/ohrcaXbMSV

KABOOM

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198335553764286464

TheScreamingEagles said:

KABOOM

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198335553764286464

This should be very interesting.

Theuniondivvie said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

What a bizarre thing to do.

Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?

Did Mussolini have a dog?

alex_ said:

L

MJW said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that.

I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.

I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.

Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo

NickPalmer said:

Floater said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that.

Why not

Difficulty level and Civ you played?

I don't play particularly high difficulty but currently playing with a mod which adds various Game of Thrones leaders

Also I prefer HUGE maps

Emperor. I have a friend in California (works for Google) and we generally spend Saturday evenings on that. He's a bit better than me but I win sometimes. He generally goes for steady development, while I usually overrun my non-player neighbours. We've been trying games with restricted victory conditions for a change - only religious wins are a bit boring (too many slow set-piece duels between apostles), and diplomatic wins are a bit random (whoever guesses how the World Congress votes will go and jumps on the bandwagon), but the cultural win is interesting and I'm not yet really good at that yet.

We used to play Stellaris a lot (and Hearts of Iron before that) and have been dabbling in Endless Legends - I really like the Endless series, but I'm finding Legends hard even at Normal level.

The glamorous life of a former lawmaker.

alex_ said:

L

MJW said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that.

I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.

I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.

I really thought it would be fairly neutral for most - nice, but whatever -and a way to pitch to the young, but of all the promises thrown around, and all the events of the campaign to date, that's the only one someone has raised with me in an unprompted discussion about the GE, and not in a positive way. I was quite surprised.

IanB2 said:

alex_ said:

L

MJW said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that.

I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.

I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.

Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo

Not necessarily. Why do you think he struggles so much on the issue of veracity?

Voters, generally speaking, appear to know that Johnson is a liar. It's just that a great many of them still think he's better than the alternative.

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
...

Have I missed anyone out?

So many.

Red Tories
The Greens
Tony Blair

Are three glaring omissions.

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!

Have I missed anyone out?

You sick fooker

Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it

bigjohnowls said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!

Have I missed anyone out?

You sick fooker

Not guilty fella.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/survey-of-27-000-left-wing-twitter-accounts-shows-nearly-a-fifth-promote-or-engage-in-antisemitism-1.480094

Published this February:

A survey of thousands of left-wing social media accounts by Hope Not Hate found that nearly a fifth promote or engage in antisemitism.

The anti-fascist group’s “State of Hate 2019” report into racism — to be published on Monday — analysed 27,000 Twitter profiles that follow a selection of UK-based left-wing accounts which “regularly spread antisemitic ideas”.

Of the 27,000 accounts, the charity found up to 5,000 of them — just under 19 per cent — have expressed antisemitic ideas twice or more on social media.

Some of the accounts posted over 100 tweets that could be clearly identified as antisemitic, featuring tropes such as Jewish control of the media or banking system.

kle4 said:

alex_ said:

L

MJW said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that.

I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.

I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.

I really thought it would be fairly neutral for most - nice, but whatever -and a way to pitch to the young, but of all the promises thrown around, and all the events of the campaign to date, that's the only one someone has raised with me in an unprompted discussion about the GE, and not in a positive way. I was quite surprised.

I think people recognise there are some real problems with the country that will take money to fix - NHS, housing, social care, etc - and there are some freebies that they'd quite like that they can justify on a fairness point of view - so prescription charges, say.

But while the country might be willing to pay taxes for other people's hip replacement or diabetes medication, they don't see why it is a priority for the country to provide free broadband - which poor people who cannot afford a computer aren't going to be able to benefit from anyway.

Byronic said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!

Have I missed anyone out?

lol. Yes you missed the ‘racist Jewish Tory pollsters’, trying to stir up apathy and defeatism in Labour ranks.

Seriously. Go on Twitter. It’s full of mad Corbynite with deliciously insane conspiracy theories about the polling companies

I'm reading one from a guy who seriously wonders why no polls with labour leads are published. He presumably thinks twitter polls are proper polls!

Fysics_Teacher said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MRP model is going to be a disaster for Labour

I’m expecting a dose of reality for the Tories TBH, but then I’m not really over what happened in 2017 yet.

Tories probably hoping for anything that will help turnout

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it

Opinium for the Observer. That well known bastion of Tory privilege.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it

Opinium

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!

Have I missed anyone out?

You missed out:

THE JEWS!

Jewish FATCHA!

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Any data tables yet?

Yes.

Opinium's are at the bottom of this article.

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-november-2019/

squareroot2 said:

nunu2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

KABOOM

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198335553764286464

Yay!

MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?

Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.

wooliedyed said:

Byronic said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Flashy5 said:

wooliedyed said:

If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.

And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.

The Marxist blame list:

***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!

Have I missed anyone out?

lol. Yes you missed the ‘racist Jewish Tory pollsters’, trying to stir up apathy and defeatism in Labour ranks.

Seriously. Go on Twitter. It’s full of mad Corbynite with deliciously insane conspiracy theories about the polling companies

I'm reading one from a guy who seriously wonders why no polls with labour leads are published. He presumably thinks twitter polls are proper polls!

Boy, if twitter polls ended up being closer to the result than this lot, I think all our collective heads would explode.

squareroot2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it

the outlier

On the low side.....

😆

Random thought: With the big national lead and Brexit Party not even standing in their seats some of the majorities in Tory safe seats are going to be massive.

I am preparing myself for YouGov’s model. Headless chicken panic and smug modes both ready to go.

Floater said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

What a bizarre thing to do.

Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?

Did Mussolini have a dog?

No, he was Hitler's bitch.

"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

I actually don’t think it’s the spending commitments which have damaged Labour - the Tories after all have made their own spending commitments in this election campaign. Rather, I agree with Alex in that it was the part nationalisation of broadband policy which was the killer. What Labour did right last time was their policies were focused on issues which people considered a priority - e.g. gas and electricity. Broadband is not considered a major priority at the top of voters’ lists ahead of gas and electricity prices, housing, the NHS, or even tuition fees.

A major mistake of the Corbyn campaign is this ‘neutral’ stance he would take in a referendum. It is not plausible to simply sit on the fence and be ‘neutral’ about the biggest issue of the day. What is even more implausible is the idea of going to the EU to get a new deal and then not even having the audacity to advocate for your own deal in a referendum. This position doesn’t win over Brexiteers who are already committed to the Tories anyway, and alienates Remainers who might have considered voting Labour.

Corbyn’s incompetence also undermines all the big promises he makes. I think members of the public don’t view his manifesto as ‘Marxism’ but instead see it that if this man can’t even deal with an antisemitism crisis in his own party how on earth is he going to radically and successfully expand the state?

The Tories, by contrast while making spending commitments have avoided making big promises and adopting unpopular policies. Investing in the NHS, committing to not increasing VAT, NI and income tax will all be popular with voters. The move to shelve cutting corporation tax further is very smart as well - it makes it harder for Labour to state that the Tories are issuing ‘tax cuts for the rich’. Now, the Tories need to make sure they stay away from major welfare policies (the mood has shifted away from ‘tough on benefit claimants’ in the last ten years) and avoid a dementia tax style gaffe.

I don’t see the debates radically changing anything. I think Philip Blond made a good point when he said you can only really lose debates, not win them on Sky News yesterday.