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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019
    Sub 150 and would a lefty leader actually be able to fill a shadow cabinet with moderates refusing to bend the knee?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    nunu2 said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

    Think we saw this earlier anyway.

    This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

    It's disastrous.

    Labour will be panicking now.
    I think we are approaching a crossover moment, where the Tories' nervousness despite big leads will dissipate, and Labour's confidence despite those big Tory leads will also start to dissipate.

    It will be fascinating to see if the Tories can avoid hubris and easy mistakes, and if Labour respond proactively to these Tory leads rather than just believing they will go away.
    There’s not many plot points left, when Labour could change the narrative. The Tory manifesto is one, PERHAPS the last debate (but I doubt these things ever really matter)

    Labour have until next Thursday. By then we are two weeks away from the vote. If they haven’t made serious ground by that moment, it’s over. Five days and counting
  • nunu2 said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

    Think we saw this earlier anyway.

    This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

    It's disastrous.

    Labour will be panicking now.
    It matters what they will be panicking about. Will they be panicking about the the scale of the defeat, or will they be panicking about how to secure the succession to Corbyn?
    The latter has been the main occupation at the very top of the party for some time I suspect.
    Yes. So the manifesto in some respects could be understood as crafted for the Party membership, to act as a litmus test for leadership candidates in the aftermath of the election. This also means that they are unlikely to take corrective action that might stem the losses, as their focus is on the internal party battle.
  • The voting intentions surveyed since #ITVDebate so far:

    Opinium: Con +19
    BMG: Con +13
    YouGov: Con +12
    Panelbase: Con +10

    More expected.

    https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/IrRqq4YFxf
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nunu2 said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

    Think we saw this earlier anyway.

    This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

    It's disastrous.

    Labour will be panicking now.
    It matters what they will be panicking about. Will they be panicking about the the scale of the defeat, or will they be panicking about how to secure the succession to Corbyn?
    In 2010 they were more interested in who would succeed brown rather than doing a deal with clegg so I think they will be positioning for the post corbyn leadership. Don’t be surprised when it’s even more left wing because Jeremy didn’t offer true socialism
  • Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    If Labour end up in the 160 to 180 range how many Cooper Bennites would be left in the parliamentary party?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu2 said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198333388974891008

    Think we saw this earlier anyway.

    This will be the most "positive" poll for Labour - and that's bad

    It's disastrous.

    Labour will be panicking now.
    I think we are approaching a crossover moment, where the Tories' nervousness despite big leads will dissipate, and Labour's confidence despite those big Tory leads will also start to dissipate.

    It will be fascinating to see if the Tories can avoid hubris and easy mistakes, and if Labour respond proactively to these Tory leads rather than just believing they will go away.
    There’s not many plot points left, when Labour could change the narrative. The Tory manifesto is one, PERHAPS the last debate (but I doubt these things ever really matter)

    Labour have until next Thursday. By then we are two weeks away from the vote. If they haven’t made serious ground by that moment, it’s over. Five days and counting
    Agreed. I mean given about 6 million postal votes will be cast overall, a couple million will probably have been cast by the end of this week.....
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited November 2019

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    160? Labour could go below 150 with some of these polls.

    But I get your point.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Btw, in train drivers, some of them earn a surprisingly high wage.

    Some on £80k+
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nunu2 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    160? Labour could go below 150 with some of these polls.

    But I get your point.
    Utter cratering and sub 100, no way back. I'd settle for that. Nick Brown besieged in Newcastle East with blue geordies all around
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Barnesian said:

    We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD

    City and Westminster
    Poll 39/26/33
    Model 50/30/20

    Chelsea and Fulham
    Poll 48/24/25
    Model 56/24/20

    Hendon
    Poll 51/33/12
    Model 52/44/4

    So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.

    The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.

    This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.

    242 !!!!
    In aggregate 481.

    Say 50 for SNP 18 NI plus 5 for PC/Green/BXP

    565 in total

    Has @barnesian deducted 100 from the Tory seat count...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited November 2019

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    160? Labour could go below 150 with some of these polls.

    But I get your point.
    Utter cratering and sub 100, no way back. I'd settle for that. Nick Brown besieged in Newcastle East with blue geordies all around
    Newcastle council dusting off old emergency plans entitled 'how to deal with an influx of Jarrow Tories'
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
    Corbyn will go down in history as the only person who could make Johnson electable, well done labour your blind stupidity yet again fails those you claim to want to help.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

    Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
  • Con maj 1.45
    NOM 3.45
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

    Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?
    He would be better than most of the others, can we have that cat as well
  • kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

    Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?
    Probably will make a better Secretary of State than Priti Patel & Dominic Raab.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    nichomar said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
    Corbyn will go down in history as the only person who could make Johnson electable, well done labour your blind stupidity yet again fails those you claim to want to help.
    Second, after Livingstone...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    alex_ said:

    nichomar said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
    Corbyn will go down in history as the only person who could make Johnson electable, well done labour your blind stupidity yet again fails those you claim to want to help.
    Second, after Livingstone...
    If we are being silly then there isGalloway
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

    Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?
    He would be better than most of the others, can we have that cat as well
    Larry for supreme everything
  • If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
    There's just a chance that if Labour can find a left MP who: is able and willing to rid the party of antisemitism, looks forward to new ideas rather than back to the 1970s, and can bridge the cultural divide between metropolitan liberals and small town workers - that there is bright future for the Labour Left.

    Any one of those three would be a massive improvement on Corbyn. It would also help if they could count, but walk before you run and all that.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD

    City and Westminster
    Poll 39/26/33
    Model 50/30/20

    Chelsea and Fulham
    Poll 48/24/25
    Model 56/24/20

    Hendon
    Poll 51/33/12
    Model 52/44/4

    So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.

    The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.

    This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.

    242 !!!!
    In aggregate 481.

    Say 50 for SNP 18 NI plus 5 for PC/Green/BXP

    565 in total

    Has @barnesian deducted 100 from the Tory seat count...
    As per usual then......
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kle4 said:

    I'll say it, Labour is now in big trouble

    They need to find a dementia tax
    They'd exempt Jeremy from paying it!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Oooooh dear Jeremy Corbyn!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD

    City and Westminster
    Poll 39/26/33
    Model 50/30/20

    Chelsea and Fulham
    Poll 48/24/25
    Model 56/24/20

    Hendon
    Poll 51/33/12
    Model 52/44/4

    So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.

    The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.

    This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.

    242 !!!!
    In aggregate 481.

    Say 50 for SNP 18 NI plus 5 for PC/Green/BXP

    565 in total

    Has @barnesian deducted 100 from the Tory seat count...
    Yes It was a typo, sorry

    342/209/30

    By constituency, including constituency polls for comparison

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Floater said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    Why not

    Difficulty level and Civ you played?

    I don't play particularly high difficulty but currently playing with a mod which adds various Game of Thrones leaders

    Also I prefer HUGE maps
    Emperor. I have a friend in California (works for Google) and we generally spend Saturday evenings on that. He's a bit better than me but I win sometimes. He generally goes for steady development, while I usually overrun my non-player neighbours. We've been trying games with restricted victory conditions for a change - only religious wins are a bit boring (too many slow set-piece duels between apostles), and diplomatic wins are a bit random (whoever guesses how the World Congress votes will go and jumps on the bandwagon), but the cultural win is interesting and I'm not yet really good at that yet.

    We used to play Stellaris a lot (and Hearts of Iron before that) and have been dabbling in Endless Legends - I really like the Endless series, but I'm finding Legends hard even at Normal level.
  • nichomar said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    You may be right, but I have this sinking feeling that there won't be a Labour civil war under such circumstances.

    The membership will elect a Corbyn replacement without the historic baggage, and keep plodding along the same road. The "Cooper-Bennites" will go along with it because they're primarily interested in keeping their jobs, and they'll believe by that point (whether it ultimately turns out to be true or not) that any Labour MP who has survived the cull will have a guaranteed job for life. A bit like the Tory survivors of 1997.

    Anybody who *really* couldn't live with the Far Left and its insanity, e.g. Chuka Umunna and Frank Field, has already departed. The MPs who are still in Labour are supporters and enablers of the revolution. Every last one of them.

    Of course, if, at the end of this, the Tories scrape home with a narrow victory (or, God forbid, there's another Hung Parliament) the Corbynites will interpret this as the greatest triumph since 1945, and their man will most likely continue as leader until he decides he's got too old for the gig.
    Corbyn will go down in history as the only person who could make Johnson electable, well done labour your blind stupidity yet again fails those you claim to want to help.
    When will the penny drop that it isn’t Corbyn - it’s the Marxism - Britain is not a far left country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    nunu2 said:

    Btw, in train drivers, some of them earn a surprisingly high wage.

    Some on £80k+

    With spare time to be able to be in a BBC audience?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Trebly depressing: audience member who got Harold Wilson's 1975 position wrong is on Labour's staff https://t.co/ohrcaXbMSV
  • Last time the Tories were in 2nd place in Dundee must have been during the days of Winston Churchill?

    Best prices - Dundee East

    SNP 1/20
    SCon 16/1
    SLab 17/1
    SLD 80/1
  • kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    What a bizarre thing to do.
    Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Flashy5 said:
    Yet their policies will hurt most peoples pension pots.......
    When will they hit 2 trillion in extra spending pledges....

    You know all paid for by 5% of the population..... right.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    What a bizarre thing to do.
    Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?
    Did Mussolini have a dog?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2019
    L
    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Flashy5 said:
    Do they not realise that at a certain point this largesse begins to have a negative effect?

    It’s like a spurned husband making promises to get his wife back. When he promises to clean the kitchen, and cut down on the drinking, she gives him a listen. She’s interested.

    When he then promises to get a job as a brain surgeon, buy her a Maserati, and take her on holiday to the Maldives for six months, she looks at him and she despises him as a liar. And worse: a liar who takes her for a fool.
  • MRP model is going to be a disaster for Labour
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.
    Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited November 2019
    Desperate pandering to the WASPI crowd is not a great sign. Even the paper is not convinced, describing them as those 'who believe' etc etc, rather than just saying they have been unfairly left out of pocket.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Floater said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    Why not

    Difficulty level and Civ you played?

    I don't play particularly high difficulty but currently playing with a mod which adds various Game of Thrones leaders

    Also I prefer HUGE maps
    Emperor. I have a friend in California (works for Google) and we generally spend Saturday evenings on that. He's a bit better than me but I win sometimes. He generally goes for steady development, while I usually overrun my non-player neighbours. We've been trying games with restricted victory conditions for a change - only religious wins are a bit boring (too many slow set-piece duels between apostles), and diplomatic wins are a bit random (whoever guesses how the World Congress votes will go and jumps on the bandwagon), but the cultural win is interesting and I'm not yet really good at that yet.

    We used to play Stellaris a lot (and Hearts of Iron before that) and have been dabbling in Endless Legends - I really like the Endless series, but I'm finding Legends hard even at Normal level.

    The glamorous life of a former lawmaker.
  • MRP model is going to be a disaster for Labour

    I’m expecting a dose of reality for the Tories TBH, but then I’m not really over what happened in 2017 yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.
    I really thought it would be fairly neutral for most - nice, but whatever -and a way to pitch to the young, but of all the promises thrown around, and all the events of the campaign to date, that's the only one someone has raised with me in an unprompted discussion about the GE, and not in a positive way. I was quite surprised.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    Britain Elects:

    https://twitter.com/mickrjackson10/status/1198311662673104904
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.
    Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo
    Not necessarily. Why do you think he struggles so much on the issue of veracity?

    Voters, generally speaking, appear to know that Johnson is a liar. It's just that a great many of them still think he's better than the alternative.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited November 2019
    Welcome @bwarkbwark
  • Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    ...

    Have I missed anyone out?
    So many.

    Red Tories
    The Greens
    Tony Blair

    Are three glaring omissions.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    MRP model is going to be a disaster for Labour

    Disaster? There are no disasters. Just opportunities. And indeed opportunities for fresh disasters.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    You sick fooker
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    You missed FATCHA!
  • Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it w
    Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo
    Not necessarily. Why do you think he struggles so much on the issue of veracity?

    Voters, generally speaking, appear to know that Johnson is a liar. It's just that a great many of them still think he's better than the alternative.
    I'd speculate that a factor in it at least is that there are lots of people who think Johnson is unscrupulous and untrustworthy, and even more than many politicians is only in it for himself without any true ideology or vision. This can, counter intuitively, be spun as a positive by people looking for a reason not to vote Corbyn, because people can reassure themselves that Johnson probably won't do various really bad things that ideologues like Rees-Mogg or Baker would do, because he will see no further advantage in doing so, after having won.

    Whereas Corbyn genuinely has political vision. And that's good if you like the vision, but if you do not, you cannot have much hope he will not do it if he wins.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    lol. Yes you missed the ‘racist Jewish Tory pollsters’, trying to stir up apathy and defeatism in Labour ranks.

    Seriously. Go on Twitter. It’s full of mad Corbynite with deliciously insane conspiracy theories about the polling companies
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2019

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    You sick fooker
    Not guilty fella.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/survey-of-27-000-left-wing-twitter-accounts-shows-nearly-a-fifth-promote-or-engage-in-antisemitism-1.480094

    Published this February:

    A survey of thousands of left-wing social media accounts by Hope Not Hate found that nearly a fifth promote or engage in antisemitism.

    The anti-fascist group’s “State of Hate 2019” report into racism — to be published on Monday — analysed 27,000 Twitter profiles that follow a selection of UK-based left-wing accounts which “regularly spread antisemitic ideas”.

    Of the 27,000 accounts, the charity found up to 5,000 of them — just under 19 per cent — have expressed antisemitic ideas twice or more on social media.

    Some of the accounts posted over 100 tweets that could be clearly identified as antisemitic, featuring tropes such as Jewish control of the media or banking system.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it w
    Yet treating people like idiots is still working for Bozo
    Not necessarily. Why do you think he struggles so much on the issue of veracity?

    Voters, generally speaking, appear to know that Johnson is a liar. It's just that a great many of them still think he's better than the alternative.
    I'd speculate that a factor in it at least is that there are lots of people who think Johnson is unscrupulous and untrustworthy, and even more than many politicians is only in it for himself without any true ideology or vision. This can, counter intuitively, be spun as a positive by people looking for a reason not to vote Corbyn, because people can reassure themselves that Johnson probably won't do various really bad things that ideologues like Rees-Mogg or Baker would do, because he will see no further advantage in doing so, after having won.

    Whereas Corbyn genuinely has political vision. And that's good if you like the vision, but if you do not, you cannot have much hope he will not do it if he wins.
    What Corbyn fails to do in his mind is separate "the poor" (ie. The literal poor) and the working class, who may not be "rich" but a) don't like being called poor and b) are proud, self-reliant and aspirational.


  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    L

    MJW said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    I think it was more a case of spending Buckaroo - the electorate generally are in favour of loosening the purse strings, but there was always going to be a point where they just stop believing the spending promises you pile on and kick back.

    Another point that surprised is how poorly the Labour manifesto has been sold compared to 2017 when leaking it was a genius move, partly due to the fact that the big headline grabbers had already been pre-released or were there in 2017. As a result, when it was launched all the big headlines were about the eye-watering total figure rather than the nice stuff, and what the experts thought of it.

    I do wonder if Labour got spooked by the Lib Dems' ratings and some crap headlines early on and rushed forward the headline grabbers (as well as trying to nobble the LDs) and was left with none of the choice cuts on manifesto day.
    I think it was the “popular” free broadband that was the killer. Obviously the tax and spending stuff has scared lots of Tory remainers back to Johnson, but they probably priced that in to some extent. And was mostly affecting con/ld seats anyway. They were hoping to offset that against bringing back a whole load of poorer working class leavers back towards the party. But I think most people after a bit of consideration just ultimately couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of the broadband policy. That’s what people mean when they say that Corbyn thinks they’re “idiots”. There are lots of ways expansion of/investment in broadband could have been made to sound radical, yet plausible. But they just went way too far.
    I really thought it would be fairly neutral for most - nice, but whatever -and a way to pitch to the young, but of all the promises thrown around, and all the events of the campaign to date, that's the only one someone has raised with me in an unprompted discussion about the GE, and not in a positive way. I was quite surprised.
    I think people recognise there are some real problems with the country that will take money to fix - NHS, housing, social care, etc - and there are some freebies that they'd quite like that they can justify on a fairness point of view - so prescription charges, say.

    But while the country might be willing to pay taxes for other people's hip replacement or diabetes medication, they don't see why it is a priority for the country to provide free broadband - which poor people who cannot afford a computer aren't going to be able to benefit from anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    Opinium, aka the platinum standard.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Byronic said:

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    lol. Yes you missed the ‘racist Jewish Tory pollsters’, trying to stir up apathy and defeatism in Labour ranks.

    Seriously. Go on Twitter. It’s full of mad Corbynite with deliciously insane conspiracy theories about the polling companies
    I'm reading one from a guy who seriously wonders why no polls with labour leads are published. He presumably thinks twitter polls are proper polls!
  • Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    And this from one of the many Sky labour cheerleaders

    Every tweet from Goodall is pro labour, as are his connections

    And Sky are meant to be impartial. He is as bad if not worse than Faisal Islam
    Yes, if he genuinely thinks this week has mostly gone well for Labour then he's very, very blinkered. Otherwise, he's just spinning on behalf of his former employers.

    Andy_JS said:

    nico67 said:

    Dan Hodges is talking tripe .

    Corbyns neutral position is making the best of a bad situation, to come out fully for Remain now would be even worse .

    Corbyn knows he'll lose seats in the North if he comes out unequivocally for Remain, whereas the party's safe seats in London, Manchester, Birmingham, etc, will vote Labour come what may. So it makes sense.
    But will those seats vote for the Tories, I bloody hope not but I am starting to fear they will :(
    It's not impossible...

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1197891296012177409
    I doubt Corbyn personally thinks they are dickheads or idiots, though there's definitely some who think that.
    But see the reference to ‘a communist’. They use that word. Working class people in the north think jezza is a communist, and they’re right. And they won’t vote for a commie.
    Wrong, wrong and right
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    MRP model is going to be a disaster for Labour

    I’m expecting a dose of reality for the Tories TBH, but then I’m not really over what happened in 2017 yet.
    Tories probably hoping for anything that will help turnout
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    Opinium for the Observer. That well known bastion of Tory privilege.
  • Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    You missed out:

    THE JEWS!
  • Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    Opinium
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    Looks as though the Labour manifesto jumped the shark - a case where less would have been more, perhaps.

    Ah well. Ironically have been busy playing Civ VI and see that was discussed upthread while you were waiting for the polls. Let's talk about that. :)

    Why not

    Difficulty level and Civ you played?

    I don't play particularly high difficulty but currently playing with a mod which adds various Game of Thrones leaders

    Also I prefer HUGE maps
    Emperor. I have a friend in California (works for Google) and we generally spend Saturday evenings on that. He's a bit better than me but I win sometimes. He generally goes for steady development, while I usually overrun my non-player neighbours. We've been trying games with restricted victory conditions for a change - only religious wins are a bit boring (too many slow set-piece duels between apostles), and diplomatic wins are a bit random (whoever guesses how the World Congress votes will go and jumps on the bandwagon), but the cultural win is interesting and I'm not yet really good at that yet.

    We used to play Stellaris a lot (and Hearts of Iron before that) and have been dabbling in Endless Legends - I really like the Endless series, but I'm finding Legends hard even at Normal level.

    The glamorous life of a former lawmaker.
    Although the average age of a gamer is higher than it used to be, I bet most politicians have very little appreciation for games or gaming culture - if only there were more NickPalmer's in Parliament maybe they'd understand the youth better!

    What do we think each leader's favourite game would be?

    Boris - something chaotic, explosive and with childishly done adult themes like Grand Theft Auto
    Corbyn - something methodical, dry, but not very challenging, like Stardew Valley
    Swinson - middle of the road, functional but unexceptional, probably action-adventure but not what people are generally after thesedays, like Crash Bandicoot
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    You missed out:

    THE JEWS!
    Jewish FATCHA!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
  • Any data tables yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Flashy5 said:
    2017. They thought 2017 would happen. Little time remains to see that happen.
  • Any data tables yet?

    Yes.

    Opinium's are at the bottom of this article.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-november-2019/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    Opinium for the Observer. That well known bastion of Tory privilege.
    MIght scare the LDs reading the paper?
  • nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
    Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
    The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.
  • Any data tables yet?

    Yes.

    Opinium's are at the bottom of this article.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-november-2019/
    All Johnson's numbers down, which is interesting. But their polling gap keeps going up
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Byronic said:

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    lol. Yes you missed the ‘racist Jewish Tory pollsters’, trying to stir up apathy and defeatism in Labour ranks.

    Seriously. Go on Twitter. It’s full of mad Corbynite with deliciously insane conspiracy theories about the polling companies
    I'm reading one from a guy who seriously wonders why no polls with labour leads are published. He presumably thinks twitter polls are proper polls!
    Boy, if twitter polls ended up being closer to the result than this lot, I think all our collective heads would explode.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    I'd speculate that a factor in it at least is that there are lots of people who think Johnson is unscrupulous and untrustworthy, and even more than many politicians is only in it for himself without any true ideology or vision. This can, counter intuitively, be spun as a positive by people looking for a reason not to vote Corbyn, because people can reassure themselves that Johnson probably won't do various really bad things that ideologues like Rees-Mogg or Baker would do, because he will see no further advantage in doing so, after having won.

    Whereas Corbyn genuinely has political vision. And that's good if you like the vision, but if you do not, you cannot have much hope he will not do it if he wins.

    There's probably something to that. The flip side of having an unwelcome reputation for a lack of truthfulness is that it also makes it possible for people to believe that Johnson is a pragmatist who will execute whatever policies are needed to keep him in power. That isn't going to suit the entire electorate, but it will suit a big enough chunk to get him elected. It's a good reason for well-off people who think Corbyn will embark on confiscatory policies to vote Tory. Even if they aren't convinced that Johnson will necessarily do anything positive for them, avoiding the whole heap of possible negatives that could or would come with Labour is good enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On the low side.....

    😆
  • After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Random thought: With the big national lead and Brexit Party not even standing in their seats some of the majorities in Tory safe seats are going to be massive.
  • https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041

    Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    I am preparing myself for YouGov’s model. Headless chicken panic and smug modes both ready to go.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
    I think MRP is Multilateral Regressive Projection, or something like that and it attempts to caculate not just how many of one party have moved to another, but what type, e.g. age, income, and so on, In theory much better predicter than Uniform National Swing, but also quite hard to do unless you have a big load of data that can be crunched, and as such it will have a subjective element.
  • Johnson numbers down again, to -10, Corbyn -34 which is up, so 20 points between them but Corbyn is slightly trending up
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.

    No it is not, given how big a lead the Tories need to be confident of a majority. But, to borrow a phrase, tick tock.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    What a bizarre thing to do.
    Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?
    Did Mussolini have a dog?
    No, he was Hitler's bitch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041

    Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though

    Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

  • Quincel said:

    Random thought: With the big national lead and Brexit Party not even standing in their seats some of the majorities in Tory safe seats are going to be massive.

    It's also where the Lib Dems will pick up lots of useless new votes. FPTP, what a stinker.
  • I actually don’t think it’s the spending commitments which have damaged Labour - the Tories after all have made their own spending commitments in this election campaign. Rather, I agree with Alex in that it was the part nationalisation of broadband policy which was the killer. What Labour did right last time was their policies were focused on issues which people considered a priority - e.g. gas and electricity. Broadband is not considered a major priority at the top of voters’ lists ahead of gas and electricity prices, housing, the NHS, or even tuition fees.

    A major mistake of the Corbyn campaign is this ‘neutral’ stance he would take in a referendum. It is not plausible to simply sit on the fence and be ‘neutral’ about the biggest issue of the day. What is even more implausible is the idea of going to the EU to get a new deal and then not even having the audacity to advocate for your own deal in a referendum. This position doesn’t win over Brexiteers who are already committed to the Tories anyway, and alienates Remainers who might have considered voting Labour.

    Corbyn’s incompetence also undermines all the big promises he makes. I think members of the public don’t view his manifesto as ‘Marxism’ but instead see it that if this man can’t even deal with an antisemitism crisis in his own party how on earth is he going to radically and successfully expand the state?

    The Tories, by contrast while making spending commitments have avoided making big promises and adopting unpopular policies. Investing in the NHS, committing to not increasing VAT, NI and income tax will all be popular with voters. The move to shelve cutting corporation tax further is very smart as well - it makes it harder for Labour to state that the Tories are issuing ‘tax cuts for the rich’. Now, the Tories need to make sure they stay away from major welfare policies (the mood has shifted away from ‘tough on benefit claimants’ in the last ten years) and avoid a dementia tax style gaffe.

    I don’t see the debates radically changing anything. I think Philip Blond made a good point when he said you can only really lose debates, not win them on Sky News yesterday.
  • If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
This discussion has been closed.