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  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
    Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
    The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.
    Nah, clearly Minimum Recommended Price.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    What a bizarre thing to do.
    Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?
    Cherie Blair used to do supermarket sweeps to help Tony get elected!
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (+5)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 16 Nov
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    kle4 said:

    It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn

    Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.

    Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?
    Tbf, my mum was more taken by the dog than by the girlfriend. That and the fact that the Tory candidate has the same first name as my mum.
  • Re. Opinium - thanks, and blimey!
  • If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5
    Look at the image - that's a lot of movement in a week.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Johnson numbers down again, to -10, Corbyn -34 which is up, so 20 points between them but Corbyn is slightly trending up

    So what
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited November 2019

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    You are amazing. Either in denial or grabbing at straws

    Has any poll tonight seen an increase at all for labour
  • Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    That's what I noticed too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (+5)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 16 Nov

    LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Deltapoll


    Con 43 down 2
    Labour 30 nc
    LD 16 +5
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (+5)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 16 Nov

    The Swinson Surge is on!
  • So given the mass easing of Tory nerves, the MRP model will show a hung Parliament right?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    TimT said:

    nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
    Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
    The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.
    Nah, clearly Minimum Recommended Price.
    Maximum Retail Price shirley?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?

    That’s huge.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Donald Trump
    Chuka Umunna
    Ed Milliband

    Flashy5 said:

    If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.

    They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
    And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
    The Marxist blame list:

    ***NOT US!***
    The Jews
    The BBC
    The Liberal Democrats
    Nicola Sturgeon
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Tories
    Racist Tories
    Fascist Racist Tories
    Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
    Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
    Tory Jews
    Jewish Tories
    Rupert Murdoch
    Thick Brexity Old People
    MI5
    ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Weather
    Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
    (and Broadband Providers)
    Billionaire Tory Donors
    The Banks
    Jewish Banks
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Biased MSM
    The Jewish Chronicle
    Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    Mossad Agents
    Splitters!
    AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
    The Jews
    Racist Northerners
    Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
    The Jews
    The Jews
    The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
    The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
    Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
    and
    THE JEWS!

    Have I missed anyone out?
    Donald Trump
    Chuka Umunna
    Ed Milliband and the Jewish labour MPs
    Labour Friends of Israel
    Jewish labour movement
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    So given the mass easing of Tory nerves, the MRP model will show a hung Parliament right?

    Given the leadership figures, I wouldn't be surprised if it was 50ish majority.
  • The fear of Corbyn is frightening the Tory Remainers back home . Labour need to get the body bags ready. GE nights gonna be a bloodbath. All because of the cowardice of moderate labour MPs to stand up to the Marxist Cabal that’s taken over their party.
  • Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    Has Swinson managed to improve hers at all?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    That's what I noticed too.
    Labour is more popular than Corbyn.

    The Tories are less popular than Johnson.

    Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.

    Evidence of Shy Labour voters?

    (gulps...)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (+5)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 16 Nov

    LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.
    The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The 58 billion is there in the grey book under the contingency .

    It’s under sub header OMFG we’re fucked section , emergency code red bribe .

    I’m a Labour voter but it’s not great if this is my response !
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited November 2019

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5
    Look at the image - that's a lot of movement in a week.
    Dreamworld.. its all within usual polling perameters. I suggest you go and have a chat with White Van Man and see what WVM thinks of Corbyn... and then put your ear mufflers on.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Byronic said:

    The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?

    That’s huge.

    At this point in 2017 it was 11.5% and narrowing....
  • Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Do we have fieldwork dates for Opinium and Deltapoll?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    That's what I noticed too.
    Labour is more popular than Corbyn.

    The Tories are less popular than Johnson.

    Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
    I hope you're right.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Byronic said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (+5)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 16 Nov

    LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.
    The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.
    You reminded me of that scene in Life of Brian with your last sentence. :smiley:
  • Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    edited November 2019
    I suppose the other remaining known unknown in the campaign is the visit of Trump for the NATO summit. He's going to want to pre-emptively claim credit for Johnson's big victory. There's potential for that to play badly for Johnson.

    Edit: I see the Spectator / @Fysics_Teacher are ahead of me on this point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    BigRich said:

    nunu2 said:
    MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?
    I think MRP is Multilateral Regressive Projection, or something like that and it attempts to caculate not just how many of one party have moved to another, but what type, e.g. age, income, and so on, In theory much better predicter than Uniform National Swing, but also quite hard to do unless you have a big load of data that can be crunched, and as such it will have a subjective element.
    Indeed. It looks for patterns in voting behaviour by correlation with other data such as demographic (“multi-level regression” = MR) and then applies by extrapolation the correlations to demographic data for every constituency (“post-stratification” = P).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    That's what I noticed too.
    Labour is more popular than Corbyn.

    The Tories are less popular than Johnson.

    Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
    I hope you're right.
    It depends on how it goes. If Corbyn becomes more popular than Johnson that will surely impact the polling. But right now this just seems to be noise coming back into alignment with party ratings.
  • dr_spyn said:
    No. This is Corbyn's own insanity
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
    Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    Apparently Labour have got hold of the Russian dossier .

    Trump either says the NHS is up for sale or they dish the dirt !

    Seriously though I’d be a little nervous if I was Bozo because Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK . You never know what he’s going to come out with.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Not impossible: big win this time, Labour stays left, narrow win in 2024, God knows what politics will look like in 2029 (gene editing on the NHS, and Britain desperately asking for Russia's codes to shut down the EU pirate robots?).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited November 2019

    After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.



    Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102

    Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
  • kle4 said:

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.
    Last time though, this slow trend in Corbyn's numbers going up (and recall the gap was much wider last time), went somewhat unnoticed but at the end they ended up being tied, which almost predicted the Hung Parliament result in a way.

    I wonder if this is the change we will see now, or whether it's just noise. I'll stick with the noise for now.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.

    Evidence of Shy Labour voters?

    (gulps...)


    Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.

    Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"

    Or 'Tomorrow Belongs to Me?'
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Andrew said:

    For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.

    That's what I noticed too.
    Perhaps you two should get a room.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck

    Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.

    Evidence of Shy Labour voters?

    (gulps...)
    Well even last time there was what, 1 poll which had Labour in front, and very few which had them within 2, as ended up being the result? So there may have been some of that last time and could well be again - but if the average lead is larger (and we are at the crossover point on that), they need to be realllly shy to make a difference.
  • Byronic said:

    The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?

    That’s huge.

    13.5% for the 10 polls so far this week excluding Deltapoll (just seen that one!)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Updated with guestimated fieldwork dates for a couple of the polls (just assumed it was seven days after their last weekly poll)

    https://imgur.com/Ghj9bQY
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
    Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
    Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
  • nico67 said:

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    Apparently Labour have got hold of the Russian dossier .

    Trump either says the NHS is up for sale or they dish the dirt !

    Seriously though I’d be a little nervous if I was Bozo because Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK . You never know what he’s going to come out with.

    Any chance Boris will think he’s Hugh Grant’s PM from Love Actually?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041

    Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though

    Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.
    I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
  • Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    It is just 18 days away
  • HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
    In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking it
  • RobD said:

    Updated with guestimated fieldwork dates for a couple of the polls (just assumed it was seven days after their last weekly poll)

    https://imgur.com/Ghj9bQY

    Thanks for doing this!

    Without counting chickens there can be no doubt about black line crossover anymore. The 'ah but 2017' line doesn't work anymore, even with momentum being the wrong way Labour would need to do MUCH better than they did from this stage in 2017 to claw back the difference in order to lose like they did in 2017 again.

    Interestingly Britainelects was doing a tracker too but sans black line early on which lots of lefties kept sharing, I've not seen it since. Anything happen with that?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited November 2019

    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041

    Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though

    Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.
    I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
    most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    edited November 2019
    Andrew said:


    Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.

    Evidence of Shy Labour voters?

    (gulps...)

    Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.

    Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.
    One possible explanation - Leave voters really do see this as a Brexit election. They might not like Johnson, but they will use him to get what they want - Brexit.

    It could be that, once Brexit happens, public support for Johnson/Tories could evaporate. They won't worry about that too much when they have 52 months with a massive majority, but there could be more surprising wild opinion poll swings in the next Parliament than there were in this one.
  • nico67 said:

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
    Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
    Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
    There are other types of favour Boris could offer.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Well absolutely no sign of any increase in support for Labour with tonight's polls...

    Next potential game changer is the Con manifesto tomorrow...
  • Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    2017 hasn't been repeated.

    If there is a comeback from Corbyn now it would not be 2017 redux it would be even stranger than that.
  • HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
    In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking it
    OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?

    https://xkcd.com/936/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    It is just 18 days away
    It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
    Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
    Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
    I think it impossible for Trump to stay on script, and in any case someone with a microphone and a camera will at some point ask him about what he thinks, and I think he would not be able to stay silent.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    dr_spyn said:

    Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913

    Ah, so the entire anti Jewish smear against Labour, claiming Labour hates Jews, was just a dastardly plot by horrible Jews!

    Why did she delete that? Perfectly fine. Not going to cause any fuss at all.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?
    It's not Labour you have to worry about, I think your wife is the one who controls the 'will' in that scenario.
  • HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
    In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking it
    OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?

    https://xkcd.com/936/
    You're the second person to notice :)
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    It is just 18 days away
    It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
    Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
  • I think the bible says God is against you coveting your neighbour's ass, so it will take more than a government edict.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    I think the bible says God is against you coveting your neighbour's ass, so it will take more than a government edict.

    Or his ox, or his maidservant.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,843

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
    In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking it
    OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?

    https://xkcd.com/936/
    You're the second person to notice :)
    *Puts hand up* I noticed too! Your handle pleased me immensely.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    dr_spyn said:
    Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?
    Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date.
    Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I do think that kind of headline backfires. People just don't buy it and it plays into an 'establisment is against us' narrative.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dr_spyn said:

    Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913

    number of hours since last anti semitic incident.......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Floater said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913

    number of hours since last anti semitic incident.......
    Why did you buy a counter with an hour on it? Minutes would have sufficed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,843

    Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.
    Me too Black Rook. Calling it for the Tories now is like thinking the Terminator is defeated when there's still fifteen minutes of the film left to run.
  • Byronic said:

    After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.



    Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102

    Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
    Ask YouGov's poll came out at c2pm ,it was hardly back to earth
  • Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    It's interesting that the sample claims to have voted Tory over Labour by 46%-36% in 2017. That could partly be genuinely false recall in line with their current preference, or it could be something to do with why it is an outlier.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    kle4 said:

    I do think that kind of headline backfires. People just don't buy it and it plays into an 'establisment is against us' narrative.
    Disagree. The electorate already believe Corbyn is a threat.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"

    It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.
  • Byronic said:

    After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.



    Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102

    Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
    That simply isn't so. Adopting Deltapoll's 13% lead for the Tories, as opposed to YouGov's 12% lead, you clearly haven't correctly completed the section loading support for the SNP in Scotland. Having done this myself, allowing them 42% of the vote North of the Border and also allocating 3% of the OK vote to the Greens, although they only win 1 seat, this results in the Tories winning 360 seats for an overall majority of 70 seats, way short of the 102 seat majority you wrongly claim.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?
    Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date.
    Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one
    "Well, I would vote for you but I still really don't like that Jeremy Corbyn bloke."
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.

    If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
    Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
    Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
    There are other types of favour Boris could offer.
    Enough detail ! Lol


  • Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

    I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.

    'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
    In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking it
    OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?

    https://xkcd.com/936/
    You're the second person to notice :)
    *Puts hand up* I noticed too! Your handle pleased me immensely.
    You'll make me blush!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Interesting tidbit from the MORI this week, 3 people named the BNP! They are only standing in one seat. Makes them 50% more popular than Soubry's Change who had 2 people speak up for them
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it :open_mouth:

    the outlier
    On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.

    In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.

    What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.

    Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.

    Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
    It is just 18 days away
    It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
    Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
    Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.

    The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.

    But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
    .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dr_spyn said:
    You know they will blame ... a dark conspiracy by powerful shadowy figures .... you just know it.
  • https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698

    What was this called when Labour proposed it?
  • Floater said:

    How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"

    It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.
    Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    Someone has probably already posted this but just in case they haven't;
    https://t.co/qj43WI8S4N?amp=1
  • https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698

    What was this called when Labour proposed it?

    It is not the headlines but Boris canvassing with his Father that is good to see
This discussion has been closed.