If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.
They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.
And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.
The Marxist blame list:
***NOT US!*** The Jews The BBC The Liberal Democrats Nicola Sturgeon The Jews The Jews Tories Racist Tories Fascist Racist Tories Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!) Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew) Tory Jews Jewish Tories Rupert Murdoch Thick Brexity Old People MI5 ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY. The Jews The Jews The Weather Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires (and Broadband Providers) Billionaire Tory Donors The Banks Jewish Banks The Jews The Jews Biased MSM The Jewish Chronicle Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew) The Jews The Jews Mossad Agents Splitters! AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN. The Jews Racist Northerners Nigel Farage (a Tory racist) The Jews The Jews The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish) The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum and THE JEWS!
Have I missed anyone out?
Donald Trump Chuka Umunna Ed Milliband and the Jewish labour MPs Labour Friends of Israel Jewish labour movement
The fear of Corbyn is frightening the Tory Remainers back home . Labour need to get the body bags ready. GE nights gonna be a bloodbath. All because of the cowardice of moderate labour MPs to stand up to the Marxist Cabal that’s taken over their party.
For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
That's what I noticed too.
Labour is more popular than Corbyn.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.
If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5
Look at the image - that's a lot of movement in a week.
Dreamworld.. its all within usual polling perameters. I suggest you go and have a chat with White Van Man and see what WVM thinks of Corbyn... and then put your ear mufflers on.
For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
That's what I noticed too.
Labour is more popular than Corbyn.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.
You reminded me of that scene in Life of Brian with your last sentence.
I suppose the other remaining known unknown in the campaign is the visit of Trump for the NATO summit. He's going to want to pre-emptively claim credit for Johnson's big victory. There's potential for that to play badly for Johnson.
Edit: I see the Spectator / @Fysics_Teacher are ahead of me on this point.
I think MRP is Multilateral Regressive Projection, or something like that and it attempts to caculate not just how many of one party have moved to another, but what type, e.g. age, income, and so on, In theory much better predicter than Uniform National Swing, but also quite hard to do unless you have a big load of data that can be crunched, and as such it will have a subjective element.
Indeed. It looks for patterns in voting behaviour by correlation with other data such as demographic (“multi-level regression” = MR) and then applies by extrapolation the correlations to demographic data for every constituency (“post-stratification” = P).
For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
That's what I noticed too.
Labour is more popular than Corbyn.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
I hope you're right.
It depends on how it goes. If Corbyn becomes more popular than Johnson that will surely impact the polling. But right now this just seems to be noise coming back into alignment with party ratings.
If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.
Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
Not impossible: big win this time, Labour stays left, narrow win in 2024, God knows what politics will look like in 2029 (gene editing on the NHS, and Britain desperately asking for Russia's codes to shut down the EU pirate robots?).
After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.
Last time though, this slow trend in Corbyn's numbers going up (and recall the gap was much wider last time), went somewhat unnoticed but at the end they ended up being tied, which almost predicted the Hung Parliament result in a way.
I wonder if this is the change we will see now, or whether it's just noise. I'll stick with the noise for now.
If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)
Well even last time there was what, 1 poll which had Labour in front, and very few which had them within 2, as ended up being the result? So there may have been some of that last time and could well be again - but if the average lead is larger (and we are at the crossover point on that), they need to be realllly shy to make a difference.
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Without counting chickens there can be no doubt about black line crossover anymore. The 'ah but 2017' line doesn't work anymore, even with momentum being the wrong way Labour would need to do MUCH better than they did from this stage in 2017 to claw back the difference in order to lose like they did in 2017 again.
Interestingly Britainelects was doing a tracker too but sans black line early on which lots of lefties kept sharing, I've not seen it since. Anything happen with that?
Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)
Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.
Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.
One possible explanation - Leave voters really do see this as a Brexit election. They might not like Johnson, but they will use him to get what they want - Brexit.
It could be that, once Brexit happens, public support for Johnson/Tories could evaporate. They won't worry about that too much when they have 52 months with a massive majority, but there could be more surprising wild opinion poll swings in the next Parliament than there were in this one.
Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
There are other types of favour Boris could offer.
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
2017 hasn't been repeated.
If there is a comeback from Corbyn now it would not be 2017 redux it would be even stranger than that.
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.
Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
I think it impossible for Trump to stay on script, and in any case someone with a microphone and a camera will at some point ask him about what he thinks, and I think he would not be able to stay silent.
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date. Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.
Me too Black Rook. Calling it for the Tories now is like thinking the Terminator is defeated when there's still fifteen minutes of the film left to run.
After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
Ask YouGov's poll came out at c2pm ,it was hardly back to earth
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It's interesting that the sample claims to have voted Tory over Labour by 46%-36% in 2017. That could partly be genuinely false recall in line with their current preference, or it could be something to do with why it is an outlier.
After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
That simply isn't so. Adopting Deltapoll's 13% lead for the Tories, as opposed to YouGov's 12% lead, you clearly haven't correctly completed the section loading support for the SNP in Scotland. Having done this myself, allowing them 42% of the vote North of the Border and also allocating 3% of the OK vote to the Greens, although they only win 1 seat, this results in the Tories winning 360 seats for an overall majority of 70 seats, way short of the 102 seat majority you wrongly claim.
Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date. Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one
"Well, I would vote for you but I still really don't like that Jeremy Corbyn bloke."
Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is Trump
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .
There are other types of favour Boris could offer.
"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'
Interesting tidbit from the MORI this week, 3 people named the BNP! They are only standing in one seat. Makes them 50% more popular than Soubry's Change who had 2 people speak up for them
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
Comments
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov
Has any poll tonight seen an increase at all for labour
Con 43 down 2
Labour 30 nc
LD 16 +5
That’s huge.
Chuka Umunna
Ed Milliband Donald Trump
Chuka Umunna
Ed Milliband and the Jewish labour MPs
Labour Friends of Israel
Jewish labour movement
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)
It’s under sub header OMFG we’re fucked section , emergency code red bribe .
I’m a Labour voter but it’s not great if this is my response !
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/1198350342641111041
Edit: I see the Spectator / @Fysics_Teacher are ahead of me on this point.
https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d6
Trump either says the NHS is up for sale or they dish the dirt !
Seriously though I’d be a little nervous if I was Bozo because Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK . You never know what he’s going to come out with.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
I wonder if this is the change we will see now, or whether it's just noise. I'll stick with the noise for now.
Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.
Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
https://imgur.com/Ghj9bQY
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
Without counting chickens there can be no doubt about black line crossover anymore. The 'ah but 2017' line doesn't work anymore, even with momentum being the wrong way Labour would need to do MUCH better than they did from this stage in 2017 to claw back the difference in order to lose like they did in 2017 again.
Interestingly Britainelects was doing a tracker too but sans black line early on which lots of lefties kept sharing, I've not seen it since. Anything happen with that?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913
It could be that, once Brexit happens, public support for Johnson/Tories could evaporate. They won't worry about that too much when they have 52 months with a massive majority, but there could be more
surprisingwild opinion poll swings in the next Parliament than there were in this one.Next potential game changer is the Con manifesto tomorrow...
If there is a comeback from Corbyn now it would not be 2017 redux it would be even stranger than that.
https://xkcd.com/936/
Why did she delete that? Perfectly fine. Not going to cause any fuss at all.
Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one
tin foil hats party.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
.
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
https://t.co/qj43WI8S4N?amp=1