Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?
If 2017 hadn’t happened that price would be 1.2 on the exchanges IMO. Just over 2 weeks out from the election and its been double figure leads in the last 12 polls...
But 2017 DID happen and it also happened very, very late in the campaign.
Not this late, the shift was very visible by now. And the loss of control of the media narrative generally.
Well, up to a point Lord Copper...
The Tories had poll leads of 20%, 20% and 18% as late as 25 and 24 days ahead of GE17.
We are now 19 days out from GE19. By the same stage in GE17 a series of polls with Tory leads in the 9%-13% range had landed.
The GE17 Tory manifesto was launched on 18th May, 21 days before the election and coincident with the start of the polling lead drop.
For the record I don't think the Tory lead decilne of 2017 is going to be repeated but I'd wait until the manifesto has landed safely before counting your chickens.
I said the shift was visible, not the absolute lead was smaller. When May called the election the Tory leads averaged 20% or more. 3 weeks out the average was 15% or so. This time the average lead hasn't shrunk since the election was called, if anything it has grown.
The 2001 effect, turnout dropping because Blair was so obviously going to win again.
On this 300,000 people registering to vote, that's an extra 461 people per seat (in theory - of course they aren't evenly distributed). That's enough people to make a Tory majority impossible.
Can you explain why ?
Are you assuming every one of those 461 vote Labour and that every Conservative gained seat will be with a majority of under 461 ?
No what I meant is that if you look at the tightest marginals, the votes are very close between going Labour and staying with the Tories. My point is that if these are additional votes on the Labour side, they could end up holding/taking a few Tory seats, which is all they actually need to do.
So how many seats have a Tory majority < 461? My guess (without looking it up) is less than ten.
13 seats have a Tory majority less than 461. So if the polls do (unlikely now I guess) get closer, Johnson can quickly lose seats.
The problem for the LDs is that two types of voters — public sector workers and EMs — will mostly remain loyal to Labour no matter what the circumstances, which probably limits their (the LDs) potential in a lot of seats in London and other cities.
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
I agree.
And for that reason, while it's fun to think about Labour taking a pounding, let's not forget about what this means for the Lib Dems. I think there's real value betting on the Lib Dems in the 10-20 and 20-29 bands.
It's over for remain. So what use is a vote for the Lib Dems? Quite a few Con to Lib Dem switchers will return to the Tories, still more will stay at home.
I reckon rcs1000 called it this morning when he predicted the Lib Dems would get around 19-23 seats.
Their 37% for the Tories was the outlier of all the polls. This possibly has both Lab and Tories a touch too low, but great for the blues. Tories in the 40s looking like free money unless they have a manifesto meltdown. Your Tories at 37 prediction must be wobbling a bit
The 2001 effect, turnout dropping because Blair was so obviously going to win again.
On this 300,000 people registering to vote, that's an extra 461 people per seat (in theory - of course they aren't evenly distributed). That's enough people to make a Tory majority impossible.
Can you explain why ?
Are you assuming every one of those 461 vote Labour and that every Conservative gained seat will be with a majority of under 461 ?
No what I meant is that if you look at the tightest marginals, the votes are very close between going Labour and staying with the Tories. My point is that if these are additional votes on the Labour side, they could end up holding/taking a few Tory seats, which is all they actually need to do.
So how many seats have a Tory majority < 461? My guess (without looking it up) is less than ten.
All 461 will have to be new registrations (not duplicates) and all 461 will have to vote for the party vest placed to beat the Tories. Oh and all 461 will actually have to vote.
Shall we say - roughly none then?
Surely anyone registering at this point is certain to vote?
Fox jr has just registered in his new constituency, a Labour defence in London, as he will vote there rather than here. He met the Lab MP canvassing, and rather liked him. Previously he was pretty apolitical.
Sorry, I was talking about Tory seats that are vulnerable to CHB's 461 theory not voters. I suspect you are right that late registers are probably going to vote, although how many of them are already registered is an important caveat.
Their 37% for the Tories was the outlier of all the polls. This possibly has both Lab and Tories a touch too low, but great for the blues. Tories in the 40s looking like free money unless they have a manifesto meltdown. Your Tories at 37 prediction must be wobbling a bit
You have to reckon the poll will be plastered all over leaflets sent to Lab voters in the seat. Wouldn't take much tactical voting to put him over the top if the poll is accurate.
Hardly home and dry, but certainly in with a shot.
The problem for the LDs is that two types of voters — public sector workers and EMs — will mostly remain loyal to Labour no matter what the circumstances, which probably limits their (the LDs) potential in a lot of seats in London and other cities.
I think a lot of public sector workers are fully aware that the claims in favour of public sector management are nonsense
Corbyns neutral position is making the best of a bad situation, to come out fully for Remain now would be even worse .
He’s come this far being non committal, I think it would have been wise to dodge the question for just 2 more weeks. You may as well be remain, the only leave voters still voting Labour at the moment are the socialist leavers, neutral certainly won’t win back the rest.
Corbyns neutral position is making the best of a bad situation, to come out fully for Remain now would be even worse .
Corbyn knows he'll lose seats in the North if he comes out unequivocally for Remain, whereas the party's safe seats in London, Manchester, Birmingham, etc, will vote Labour come what may. So it makes sense.
Corbyns neutral position is making the best of a bad situation, to come out fully for Remain now would be even worse .
Corbyn knows he'll lose seats in the North if he comes out unequivocally for Remain, whereas the party's safe seats in London, Manchester, Birmingham, etc, will vote Labour come what may. So it makes sense.
But will those seats vote for the Tories, I bloody hope not but I am starting to fear they will
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
It could, and should, just say the words "Get Brexit done, dudes" on one page.
It would be better received than Labour or 2017, and Johnson probably cares about nothing anyway (except perhaps a US trade deal).
Actually, I would recommend the opposite. By becoming BXP lite, the Tories have the Brexiteer frothers in the bag. What they need is Tory Remainers to come home, and playing up non Brexit issues such as Labour tax rises, is more important.
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
The Lib Dems on 18 in that BMG poll ! Compared to 12 in the Opinium.
The pollsters have always struggled to get the Lib Dems right. Their vote share is not evenly distributed so it is harder to predict. its even harder to predict now.
I'll say this, this sort of situation is why I can't handle spreadbetting. Depending on which polls are right and how various churn/etc plays out I could easily see the Tories winning anything from 350-425 seats, or even a bit outside that range at the extemes. How do you trade seat spreads in these circumstances?!
(Although, Tories at 339-345 seems rather low. Time will tell, but there seems to be serious upside potential and modest downside there.)
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
The Lib Dems on 18 in that BMG poll ! Compared to 12 in the Opinium.
I'll be honest... I don't think we're on 18. I think the truth sits somewhere about halfway between the 12 and the 18. I'd love it if we got 18, of course, but I don't think that's on for us now.
The problem for the LDs is that two types of voters — public sector workers and EMs — will mostly remain loyal to Labour no matter what the circumstances, which probably limits their (the LDs) potential in a lot of seats in London and other cities.
Which is why ex Labour MP, ex Ed Miliband Shadow Cabinet member and black British Chuka Umunna remains their best hope
I can't help but wonder what is going on with the Spreadex markets. Con seats has increased, but Lab has stayed constant despite this being the mirror image. Why?
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
The trouble is I should imagine most of the Labour vote that hasn't been squeezed already probably quite likes Corbyn and wouldn't touch a "Tory" splitter with a bargepole.
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
It's going to be difficult for them to get any more of that Labour vote though, anyone who hasn't already switched is pretty much set on Jez and isn't likely to switch to a Tory Swinson splitter. Additionally, I have begun to see Tory remainers come back to us in the last few days as remaining becomes a much smaller factor and defeating Jez a much bigger one.
19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
Head. In. Sand.
No, the objection is well founded. 47% is clearly an outlier, even when compared with the run of positive polls for the Conservatives.
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.
Indeed. I think the Tories can be pretty confident of getting 40+ now, but 45+ is a dream.
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
The trouble is I should imagine most of the Labour vote that hasn't been squeezed already probably quite likes Corbyn and wouldn't touch a "Tory" splitter with a bargepole.
The diehards, the others will be waiting to see which option is most likely to beat the Tories
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
It's going to be difficult for them to get any more of that Labour vote though, anyone who hasn't already switched is pretty much set on Jez and isn't likely to switch to a Tory Swinson splitter. Additionally, I have begun to see Tory remainers come back to us in the last few days as remaining becomes a much smaller factor and defeating Jez a much bigger one.
Yes but Chuka is LD not Corbyn Labour for Tory Remainers and ex Ed Miliband Shadow Cabinet not Clegg LDs for Labour voters
The Tories had better hope Boris doesn't use polls like this as an excuse to put crazy things back into the manifesto tomorrow.
No, the manifesto is already printed and closed.
Plus Boris is clearly playing it very curiously, while learning from T May’s mistakes.
I predict the manifesto will be full of quite eye catching things, and the nasty stuff will all be vague or ignored. FOX HUNTING WILL NOT BE MENTIONED
the proposal to restrict strikes on trains is clever (if they frame it right). How many train drivers are there? 30,000? How many commuters? 3 million?
I just wonder, even at this very late stage, if Labour, the LDs, the SNP, could somehow try to cobble together a mad electoral pact in their utter desperation to stop Brexit. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they did something along those lines, and to hell with the consequences.
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
It's going to be difficult for them to get any more of that Labour vote though, anyone who hasn't already switched is pretty much set on Jez and isn't likely to switch to a Tory Swinson splitter. Additionally, I have begun to see Tory remainers come back to us in the last few days as remaining becomes a much smaller factor and defeating Jez a much bigger one.
Yes but Chuka is LD not Corbyn Labour for Tory Remainers and ex Ed Miliband Shadow Cabinet not Clegg LDs for Labour voters
But that's the point, he's a Tory Swinson splitter in the eyes of the faithful and for Tory remainers a risk of letting Jez into power despite whatever Swinson days about it.
A big Tory lead is surely the last thing that Tories want to see right now. Can i remind you just how hated Johnson and his cabinet are? Even by some Tories? A Tory landslide gives life long Tory hate what the ERG/BXP pincer move has done voters permission to go vote LibDem or independent. They don't have to hold their nose to fend off Jezbollah because he's finished.
We also have the looming event of the Tory manifesto launch. Plenty of time for Tories to hang themselves with Hubristic bluster. What do swing voters hate almost as much as the shadow cabinet? Born to rule Tory types sneering at them.
I think you make a decent point about about the manifesto launch and risk of hubris, but the idea a big tory lead is the last thing they want to see is a bit overdone. We also overdo how hated Boris and co, and even Corbyn and co, are. They've some awful polling, Corbyn in particular, but personally don't think the scorn people generally have for politicians means they public really hates them. They wouldn't be getting such a high vote share if that was the case.
The Tories had better hope Boris doesn't use polls like this as an excuse to put crazy things back into the manifesto tomorrow.
No, the manifesto is already printed and closed.
Plus Boris is clearly playing it very curiously, while learning from T May’s mistakes.
I predict the manifesto will be full of quite eye catching things, and the nasty stuff will all be vague or ignored. FOX HUNTING WILL NOT BE MENTIONED
the proposal to restrict strikes on trains is clever (if they frame it right). How many train drivers are there? 30,000? How many commuters? 3 million?
That would be 3 million just in London and the southeast.
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
It's going to be difficult for them to get any more of that Labour vote though, anyone who hasn't already switched is pretty much set on Jez and isn't likely to switch to a Tory Swinson splitter. Additionally, I have begun to see Tory remainers come back to us in the last few days as remaining becomes a much smaller factor and defeating Jez a much bigger one.
Yes but Chuka is LD not Corbyn Labour for Tory Remainers and ex Ed Miliband Shadow Cabinet not Clegg LDs for Labour voters
But that's the point, he's a Tory Swinson splitter in the eyes of the faithful and for Tory remainers a risk of letting Jez into power despite whatever Swinson days about it.
No guarantees of course but tonight it is more likely Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster than Corbyn becomes PM.
If we are to get a non Tory PM in the next decade they will look more like or even be Chuka than Jeremy Corbyn or another of his followers
I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish on about 45% there. Anecdotally, of course, loads of my Tory remainer friends and colleagues are coming back in from the cold, the thought of Jez and his Marxist policies has scared them enough that they don't want to take even a tiny risk of him being PM. 2017 has left a big impression on everyone.
Labour are on 26% and the LDs on 33%, if Chuka squeezes that Labour vote he will win even if the Tories get 45%
He'd need to squeeze it close to zero, which seems improbable.
No, even if Labour got 10% if 16% went LD that would overcome easily the 6% Tory lead in the seat.
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
It's going to be difficult for them to get any more of that Labour vote though, anyone who hasn't already switched is pretty much set on Jez and isn't likely to switch to a Tory Swinson splitter. Additionally, I have begun to see Tory remainers come back to us in the last few days as remaining becomes a much smaller factor and defeating Jez a much bigger one.
Yes but Chuka is LD not Corbyn Labour for Tory Remainers and ex Ed Miliband Shadow Cabinet not Clegg LDs for Labour voters
But that's the point, he's a Tory Swinson splitter in the eyes of the faithful and for Tory remainers a risk of letting Jez into power despite whatever Swinson days about it.
No chance of a corbyn government never has been never will be no need to ramp them
I just wonder, even at this very late stage, if Labour, the LDs, the SNP, could somehow try to cobble together a mad electoral pact in their utter desperation to stop Brexit. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they did something along those lines, and to hell with the consequences.
Not gonna happen.
Quite. Firstly, the SNP is a successful party, the other two aren't. Secondly, they're on opposite wings of the independence argument, which is more important than Brexit in Scotland.
In broad terms, the SNP are fighting a straight battle with the Conservatives. There is no incentive whatsoever to collaborate with Lab and the LDs, whose votes the two big players just want to mine.
The Tories had better hope Boris doesn't use polls like this as an excuse to put crazy things back into the manifesto tomorrow.
Why on earth would they worry about that? There’s not a chance in hell after 2017 of them putting risky things in the manifesto to give them freedom afterwards. After 2017, winning is all that matters. And anyway, not putting things in the manifesto doesn’t prevent a party from doing it anyway.
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
Plus Enfield Southgate
Labour are so screwed if the Tories are making gains in London.
I thought Boris was no longer electoral gold dust. I was wrong!
Well part of it will be the circumstances, but if even the lower end of the polls is borne out then yes, Boris has returned more appeal than certainly I gave him credit for.
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
Plus Enfield Southgate
Labour are so screwed if the Tories are making gains in London.
If landslide talk gets some momentum, then I think we will see a swing back. This electorate doesn't want either of them basically.
The Tories had better hope Boris doesn't use polls like this as an excuse to put crazy things back into the manifesto tomorrow.
No, the manifesto is already printed and closed.
Plus Boris is clearly playing it very curiously, while learning from T May’s mistakes.
I predict the manifesto will be full of quite eye catching things, and the nasty stuff will all be vague or ignored. FOX HUNTING WILL NOT BE MENTIONED
the proposal to restrict strikes on trains is clever (if they frame it right). How many train drivers are there? 30,000? How many commuters? 3 million?
It would actually have to be a monumental fuck up by Boris's people to just come out of the Manifesto launch neutral with Labour.
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
Plus Enfield Southgate
Labour are so screwed if the Tories are making gains in London.
Well, let's not get too excited. It's just a vague possibility. At this stage, anyway.
Tories well ahead in Hendon and Chelsea. Deltapoll.
Is it possible Boris will do much better in london than we think?
Corbyn’s communist manifesto must surely help him in the wealthier areas.
The Tory position should hold up reasonably well both in wealthier areas and in the more Leave-leaning parts of the capital's periphery. Indeed, if they can fight off the Lib Dem challenge in most of the seats where they're in contention then it's not inconceivable that the net Conservative position could be zero or even positive. In terms of possible Con gains, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington and Dagenham & Rainham all have to be in play, surely?
Plus Enfield Southgate
Labour are so screwed if the Tories are making gains in London.
If landslide talk gets some momentum, then I think we will see a swing back. This electorate doesn't want either of them basically.
Wrong. That 2017 exit poll hangs over every wobbly Tory.
Comments
London’s jews really don’t like Corbyn. The Tory vote here is actually UP
A very biased "model".
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1198306693131776006
CON: 41% (+4)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 3% (-6)
via @BMGResearch, 19 - 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov
And for that reason, while it's fun to think about Labour taking a pounding, let's not forget about what this means for the Lib Dems. I think there's real value betting on the Lib Dems in the 10-20 and 20-29 bands.
It's over for remain. So what use is a vote for the Lib Dems? Quite a few Con to Lib Dem switchers will return to the Tories, still more will stay at home.
I reckon rcs1000 called it this morning when he predicted the Lib Dems would get around 19-23 seats.
Very hard to see Boris losing from here.
Corbyns neutral position is making the best of a bad situation, to come out fully for Remain now would be even worse .
Hardly home and dry, but certainly in with a shot.
City and Westminster
Poll 39/26/33
Model 50/30/20
Chelsea and Fulham
Poll 48/24/25
Model 56/24/20
Hendon
Poll 51/33/12
Model 52/44/4
So the model is over estimating the Tory vote and underestimating the LD vote. But the first two are special circumstances.
The only change I'm going to make is to reduce the LD tactical vote for Labour from 50% to 25% based on that Hendon poll.
This makes Hendon 52/38/9 and the national 242/209/30 which is in line with the spreads.
(Although, Tories at 339-345 seems rather low. Time will tell, but there seems to be serious upside potential and modest downside there.)
It is possible the Tories gain Burnley and Ashfield and Sedgefield and Workington this election but lose Cities of London and Westminster and Cheltenham
Con/Lab/LD
341/209/31
Apparently you can never forgive anyone who defects from your party.
I predict the manifesto will be full of quite eye catching things, and the nasty stuff will all be vague or ignored. FOX HUNTING WILL NOT BE MENTIONED
the proposal to restrict strikes on trains is clever (if they frame it right). How many train drivers are there? 30,000? How many commuters? 3 million?
I thought Boris was no longer electoral gold dust. I was wrong!
Every tweet from Goodall is pro labour, as are his connections
And Sky are meant to be impartial. He is as bad if not worse than Faisal Islam
If we are to get a non Tory PM in the next decade they will look more like or even be Chuka than Jeremy Corbyn or another of his followers
It’s the trend that’s crucial, in 2017 the trend for Labour to catch up was already obvious by now, this time the trend is the opposite.
What can Labour do? They’ve used their ammo. Do they have a plan B?
He’s not he’s is up against corbyn IDS would probably win!
In broad terms, the SNP are fighting a straight battle with the Conservatives. There is no incentive whatsoever to collaborate with Lab and the LDs, whose votes the two big players just want to mine.
A tidy Tory bump is my guess.