Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed. Not impossible, polling companies seem to have an impossible job and getting it 'right' seems to be pure chance, but does seem more implausible.
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.
Me too Black Rook. Calling it for the Tories now is like thinking the Terminator is defeated when there's still fifteen minutes of the film left to run.
Indeed. And even if the relentless and evil machine is finally crushed, there's no guarantee that there won't be a sequel in which a new and even more vicious one comes to destroy us all. Oh the horror!
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
That simply isn't so. Adopting Deltapoll's 13% lead for the Tories, as opposed to YouGov's 12% lead, you clearly haven't correctly completed the section loading support for the SNP in Scotland. Having done this myself, allowing them 42% of the vote North of the Border and also allocating 3% of the OK vote to the Greens, although they only win 1 seat, this results in the Tories winning 360 seats for an overall majority of 70 seats, way short of the 102 seat majority you wrongly claim.
Whatevs. The Tory lead doubles with just one point extra. My thesis is good. You’re just a pedant obsessed with maths and “getting the sums right”, like that matters. It’s just pathetic.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
I don't seem to recall the hospital parking charges pledge being particularly contentious.
It was the total weight of spending, the preposterous claims about how it was to be paid for, the huge wave of needless nationalisations and the plans to confiscate property at will that didn't go down so well.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
It’s also going to make it bloody hard to park at hospitals for those who need to, rather than those with routine appointments who can catch the bus.
(I walk, which I appreciate I am fortunate in being able to do)
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
So MRP is saying not a wipe out for Labour - but a modest Tory majority. What lead that does that imply?
If Labour are above 200 but going backwards it is bad but not disastrous, if they drop below 200 it's catastrophic, I'd suggest, 9 years into a tory led government.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Correct - it’s a statist one size fits all policy that should be left to each hospital to figure out - not a dictat from No 10.
So MRP is saying not a wipe out for Labour - but a modest Tory majority. What lead that does that imply?
This would be their joint worst result in terms of seats since World War II. If ‘not a wipeout’ is their new metric they are more fecked than a White House intern under Clinton.
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Yes, that is a problem for Leicester Royal Infirmary. When it was free, commuters would park there then walk into town. Very busy for rugby and football matches as well.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
This just demonstrates Boris's teflon quality - he's politically invincible. Let's be honest, if Boris stood up tomorrow and promised free broadband for all it would be declared a masterstroke. Unfair perhaps, but Boris has earned this by outwitting the EU at every turn and securing the greatest Brexit deal imaginable.
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Yes, that is a problem for Leicester Royal Infirmary. When it was free, commuters would park there then walk into town. Very busy for rugby and football matches as well.
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.
You keep comparing it to 2017. What was the Tory lead this far out from the 2015 election?
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Nothing is as simple as that.
The supermarket near my parents has a number plate scanner on entry and exit, it automatically gives you a ticket if you stay longer than the 3h limit.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Very close in fact to the Baxterised projection of YouGov's own poll this evening and also to the likes of Prof. Stephen Fisher and indeed the spread-betting markets.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Nothing is as simple as that.
Have you really not been in car parks or shopping centres where they do this?
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
the outlier
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
It is just 18 days away
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again. .
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.
You keep comparing it to 2017. What was the Tory lead this far out from the 2015 election?
That's not really relevant. I'm not trying to make a projection.
I'm simply suggesting people shouldn't be confident that the same thing as 2017 won't happen again - because we are very close to the same situation, according to the polls. That doesn't imply they should be confident the same thing will happen again!
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….
To what do you ascribe the sharp recovery in Corbyn's rating, then (admittedly just from "dreadful" to "bad")? I'm not wedded to the debate theory, but it's the obvious thing for a change during this week, no? It's not helped the party yet, though, so it's of marginal interest.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
It voted Remain but wasn’t like a stonking majority . Perhaps the fact he’s a vile odious creep is having an impact but that’s not an impediment to people like Francois and the rest of the ERG nutjobs .
I can’t see the Tories losing Esher , that would only have a chance if they were having a bad night and I just can’t see that happening .
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Had hoped to see Labour beaten down to sub-200 but that would do as a result.
48 is more than enough to see the Govt through to 2024. They could execute boundary reform, wait for the SNP to win in 2021 and legislate for Indyref2. Notional majority of maybe 75 going into the next election, or more like 125 if Scotland goes.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes now rate a Tory majority at 2/5, Hung Parliament at 9/4. Con at 1/20 for most seats.
The Rook household is united in its loathing of Corbyn and is trying not to get too excited. We both still fear that it could all go disastrously wrong...
Comments
https://order-order.com/2019/11/23/owen-jones-really-thinks-corbyn/
Boom boom shake the room!
It was the total weight of spending, the preposterous claims about how it was to be paid for, the huge wave of needless nationalisations and the plans to confiscate property at will that didn't go down so well.
(I walk, which I appreciate I am fortunate in being able to do)
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.
First MRP out
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Ummm
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916
Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Arfon, Ynys Môn.
Not sure Plaid will get all five.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Lib Dems only on 14. That would be bad for them.
Presumably parking will be free for staff too!
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
Nothing is as simple as that.
Corbyn or Johnson would be much sweeter, but also somewhat unlikely.
I'm simply suggesting people shouldn't be confident that the same thing as 2017 won't happen again - because we are very close to the same situation, according to the polls. That doesn't imply they should be confident the same thing will happen again!
YouGov do sell their data to other organisations so they can do their analysis/predictions.
I would have thought that if they get that close to winning Raab's seat they would have to be into the high 20s at a minimum already.
I can’t see the Tories losing Esher , that would only have a chance if they were having a bad night and I just can’t see that happening .
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
48 is more than enough to see the Govt through to 2024. They could execute boundary reform, wait for the SNP to win in 2021 and legislate for Indyref2. Notional majority of maybe 75 going into the next election, or more like 125 if Scotland goes.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes now rate a Tory majority at 2/5, Hung Parliament at 9/4. Con at 1/20 for most seats.
The Rook household is united in its loathing of Corbyn and is trying not to get too excited. We both still fear that it could all go disastrously wrong...