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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

This has not been a good week for Donald Trump. Rant all he might at the impeachment hearings, they’re turning up deeply damaging testimony that would in any normal circumstance be career-ending. Trump is not, as he’s proven many times, politically normal but even he must have a limit as to how far he can push things.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

E pluribus unum.

nunu2

Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

TudorRose

He looks more like Chuckles than Chuck......

MikeL

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

E pluribus unum.

I'm renewing calls for that judge-led inquiry.

firstlight40

nunu2 said:

Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

Yes, one dimensional problem not 2 - trains exist in a space where people doing random things are not an issue unlike roads where there are cyclists, other human controlled vehicles, and random issues like potholes.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

E pluribus unum.

I'm renewing calls for that judge-led inquiry.

I'm in wordpress writing my threads for tomorrow and I innocently noticed Mike had published a new thread.

logical_song

nunu2 said:

Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

Works for the DLR.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in wordpress writing my threads for tomorrow and I innocently noticed Mike had published a new thread.

scandalous

rottenborough

Fascinating header.

TimT

David Herdson, wouldn't Pelosi's obvious play be less convoluted? An agreement with the GOP Senate to remove Trump from office first, then allow Pence sufficient time to nominate and have approved his VP choice (perhaps even negotiated with the Dems) before impeaching and removing Pence.

maaarsh

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

It's moved more than that at times for no reason at all in the last fortnight

MikeL

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

alb1on

nunu2 said:

Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

It already exists (for example the Copenhagen metro system is driverless and runs 24/7 all year around. The real problem is Boris. Bear in mind that this is the man who, as Mayor, proposed TFL running double decker trains (until it was pointed out they do not fit under London bridges) and then came back with the suggestion of adding more carriages, until it was pointed out they would not fit the platforms. The fact that technology is straightforward would in no way reduce the probability of it being a complete disaster if backed by Boris.

RobD

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

How liquid is the market? That could be the movement due to a £1 bet

Time_to_Leave

Since the relevant betting markets are mostly british, can we assume there’ll be lots of silly money available on him leaving before the end of his term when folk see articles in the press saying he’s going to be impeached, without being aware that’s just the House process?

Stark_Dawning

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Fysics_Teacher

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.

MikeL

RobD said:

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

How liquid is the market? That could be the movement due to a £1 bet

It's a liquid market.

eg Lab Maj:

£249 offered at 38
£127 wanting to back at 40

Big_G_NorthWales

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

maaarsh

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Thanks for that, I enjoy a good laugh

MaxPB

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nope. I have loads of friends who live on that line flirting with Labour and the Lib Dems, all of them have said this is a good move. Literally every single one is against the month long strike and if this stops that from happening again, they are all for it.

Luckyguy1983

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.

TOPPING

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Er, no.

96% of commuters just want the trains to run on time and blame the nearest thing to hand (the unions) when they don't.

And yes I've asked every one of them.

TudorRose

Fysics_Teacher said:

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.

Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....

maaarsh

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.

Bingo. You have to go quite a long way down the competence line before you find someone who couldn't be trained to be a train driver, and yet their closed shop gives them a cushy setup out of all proportion of their skill set

TOPPING

Fpt someone asked about changing Amazon prices. I read somewhere that there is an algorithm - natch - which assesses visits and behaviour and adjusts prices dynamically accordingly.

wooliedyed

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

DeClare

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Time_to_Leave

TudorRose said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.

Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....

I’ve held my Labour majority bet for too long. Was getting greedy and though it would come in further by now with a tight poll or two. Now suspect I’m best off cutting losses.

TOPPING

Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

david_herdson

TimT said:

David Herdson, wouldn't Pelosi's obvious play be less convoluted? An agreement with the GOP Senate to remove Trump from office first, then allow Pence sufficient time to nominate and have approved his VP choice (perhaps even negotiated with the Dems) before impeaching and removing Pence.

It's a possibility. But the negotiations would be difficult - though not as difficult as with Trump.

Time_to_Leave

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

Casino_Royale

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

It could be nothing, and just punters catching up.

alb1on

TOPPING said:

Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

But being a bit more positive - at least the glasses are not doing their homage to Eric Morecambe.

Casino_Royale

maaarsh said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.

Bingo. You have to go quite a long way down the competence line before you find someone who couldn't be trained to be a train driver, and yet their closed shop gives them a cushy setup out of all proportion of their skill set

One of the key requirements being a psychological one: not to be easily bored.

There really isn't much for a train driver to do other than press a button to declare they're awake (and alive) and respond to black swan events.

Casino_Royale

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

CorrectHorseBattery

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

Casino_Royale

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

TOPPING

alb1on said:

TOPPING said:

Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

But being a bit more positive - at least the glasses are not doing their homage to Eric Morecambe.

He looks like the original drummer of the Happy Mondays who was kicked out before they became famous and has been trying to get something together ever since.

TudorRose

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?

viewcode

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

Casino_Royale

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

Let's wait and see. I understood it was for between a quarter and a third of services and there are good continental precedents for it.

Personally, I'd like to see total war declared on Mick Cash, but I accept that might be considered slightly hardline.

CorrectHorseBattery

TudorRose said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?

I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.

DeClare

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

Casino_Royale

Time_to_Leave said:

TudorRose said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.

Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....

I’ve held my Labour majority bet for too long. Was getting greedy and though it would come in further by now with a tight poll or two. Now suspect I’m best off cutting losses.

I had to take a haircut on that too, and my LD majority bets.

All seem very silly now but, when the vote was first called, this wasn't an obvious campaign to call at all and the polls were in very different places.

MaxPB

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

£100.

maaarsh

Just done my postal vote - election over for me:)

viewcode

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

£100.

Thank you.

TudorRose

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

I don't know how I did it but I got onto Tories > 318 at 2.2 and Tories > 340 at 3.1. I won't be cashing in for a while.

Alistair

wooliedyed said:

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

How have you managed to avoid all the first hand testimony detailing the quid pro quo?

egg

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

Time_to_Leave

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

CorrectHorseBattery

I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

alb1on

There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

CorrectHorseBattery

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

The old "tribal vote" perhaps?

kinabalu

TOPPING said:

Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

We need a Strong Man you reckon? Get the trains running on time etc?

maaarsh

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

Yep, that would need a lead, not just a recovery - hard to see from here without Boris appointing Prince Andrew to his cabinet

Casino_Royale

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TudorRose said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?

I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.

The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.

Casino_Royale

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

Ton = £100
Big One = £1,000
Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)

wooliedyed

Alistair said:

wooliedyed said:

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

How have you managed to avoid all the first hand testimony detailing the quid pro quo?

Would you like to provide some examples?
There are plenty of witnesses saying they have no information or evidence of QPQ, and of course the dems arent talking about QPQ anymore, it's all 'bribery' now

viewcode

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

Do you have any reason, other than tribal loyalty, to suspect such an outcome may come to pass? Genuine non-sarcastic question.

CorrectHorseBattery

Casino_Royale said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TudorRose said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?

I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.

The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.

Perhaps the unions actually show how good working conditions and pay could be in other industries, if they had them too. Perhaps we should raise those wages, as opposed to shitting on train drivers.

Time_to_Leave

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

Ton = £100
Big One = £1,000
Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)

It’s the old joke isn’t it? It’s very easy to have £1m in the bank. First you start with £3m......

JohnLilburne

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

The old "tribal vote" perhaps?

Weren't they the subject of an experiment in postal-only voting for the Euros? Some people would have signed up for a permanent postal vote.

CorrectHorseBattery

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

Do you have any reason, other than tribal loyalty, to suspect such an outcome may come to pass? Genuine non-sarcastic question.

I didn't think it would come to pass. My theory was it would drop and I could cash out early.

viewcode

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

Ton = £100
Big One = £1,000
Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)

Useful info, thank you. Is this city slang, betting slang, or some other thing I'm not aware of?

Big_G_NorthWales

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

That is a bit over the top

kinabalu

wooliedyed said:

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

👀

Time_to_Leave

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

The old "tribal vote" perhaps?

If I was going to guess, I’d say that the regional assembly referendum might have had one of Blair Gvt pushes on postal voting, and a lot of people got in the habit.

CorrectHorseBattery

alb1on said:

There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.

Time_to_Leave

JohnLilburne said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

The old "tribal vote" perhaps?

Weren't they the subject of an experiment in postal-only voting for the Euros? Some people would have signed up for a permanent postal vote.

Oh that’s right, it was a few euro regions. That sounds right.

nunu2

alb1on said:

nunu2 said:

Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

It already exists (for example the Copenhagen metro system is driverless and runs 24/7 all year around. The real problem is Boris. Bear in mind that this is the man who, as Mayor, proposed TFL running double decker trains (until it was pointed out they do not fit under London bridges) and then came back with the suggestion of adding more carriages, until it was pointed out they would not fit the platforms. The fact that technology is straightforward would in no way reduce the probability of it being a complete disaster if backed by Boris.

Now imagine Corbyn running your broadband.

alb1on

CorrectHorseBattery said:

alb1on said:

There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.

More accurately, services have continued to run during the guards dispute, but there is no guarantee that would be the case in a dispute with more support amongst rail staff and unions. We need to think beyond today's dispute.

DennisBets

MikeL said:

More movement last few mins:

Lab Maj from 36 to 38

Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

Seems to be drifting the other way on another well known betting site with total seats

wooliedyed

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

👀

I'm not in a foul mood today, it helps with the clarity bollocks

egg

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

That is a bit over the top

Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

Game changer.

Casino_Royale

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TudorRose said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.

The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.

You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?

I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.

The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.

Perhaps the unions actually show how good working conditions and pay could be in other industries, if they had them too. Perhaps we should raise those wages, as opposed to shitting on train drivers.

That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

A_View_From_Cumbria5

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

My postal vote was delivered on Thursday and obviously returned that evening.

rpjs

alb1on said:

There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

Another strategy sometimes used in Europe is for the services to run but staff refuse to collect or enforce fares. This probably wouldn’t be workable in the UK where the unions are separated by “trade”.

Jonathan

Southern Trains do not need any more government help.

CorrectHorseBattery

Casino_Royale said:

That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.

Big_G_NorthWales

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

That is a bit over the top

Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

Game changer.

I very much doubt it

NorthernPowerhouse

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

My postal vote was delivered on Thursday and obviously returned that evening.

A good chunk of PVs are returned within a day or two... My theory last time, if the election was entirely decided on the day JC would now be PM.

Casino_Royale

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?

Ton = £100
Big One = £1,000
Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)

Useful info, thank you. Is this city slang, betting slang, or some other thing I'm not aware of?

Cockney rhyming slang/cityspeak/wallstreet speak.

Casino_Royale

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.

Thank you.

I think we'll take that as conceding the point then.

brokenwheel

First sign of an election in what is a relatively safe Tory seat; Con leaflet sent to postal voters urging them to send back.

I'm sure the Cons will hope starting from next week there's not much of an election campaign.

nunu2

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

In 2017 it was 18.2%

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election

26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?

The old "tribal vote" perhaps?

Or just that the North East is older than the U.K as a whole.

If the tories can maintain the big swing towards them as we've seen in the north east then they could bank a lot of early votes towards them over the next week or so.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

We need a Strong Man you reckon? Get the trains running on time etc?

Absolutely.

MarqueeMark

maaarsh said:

Just done my postal vote - election over for me:)

Early exit poll?

MaxPB

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

That is a bit over the top

Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

Game changer.

I very much doubt it

Indeed. To most people the idea of striking is incredibly alien. Withdrawing of labour is done by quitting and finding a better job, not by striking and sulking.

GIN1138

Evening PB - Everyone ready for another Mega Polling Saturday?

Eyes down and here we go...

initforthemoney

CorrectHorseBattery said:

alb1on said:

There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.

If the strikes don't make a difference, what is the point of them?

CorrectHorseBattery

Casino_Royale said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.

Thank you.

I think we'll take that as conceding the point then.

No I'm not conceding anything. I just think you personally attacking train drivers as being miserable is not relevant and just makes you look like an angry old person. I'm sure you're not like that at all - but I couldn't let that go unchallenged.

In Germany they have wide collective bargaining, very high union membership and the result is very reliable trains, efficient public services and good wages.

"Back to the 70s" is the most boring and oft-repeated attack I see on this site. There is not one policy from Labour that would do that, it's as ridiculous as me calling Boris Johnson a facist.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:

I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

👀

Patronising c&&t.

Sean_F

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT

It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon

That is a bit over the top

Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

Game changer.

I rather doubt it.

A_View_From_Cumbria5

Time_to_Leave said:

DeClare said:

MikeL said:

FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

Early rumours???

Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.

Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?

I know that in my district ward it is 22% and that is indicative of the constituency as a whole. However, that is the base of permanent ones before the new applications for this election. In my ward there are two of the eight parishes where voters would benefit more from PVs but they have markedly lower rates of PVs - I presume they want the polling business for their village halls in both cases.

nunu2

maaarsh said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

Yep, that would need a lead, not just a recovery - hard to see from here without Boris appointing Prince Andrew to his cabinet

Don't give him any ideas!

humbugger

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Casino_Royale said:

That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.

Good evening all.

CorrectHorseBattery, do you support Labour's proposals to end the ban on secondary strikes?

Alistair

Venn diagram of people who want to ban striking and who approved of the fuel refinery blockades is a circle