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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

This has not been a good week for Donald Trump. Rant all he might at the impeachment hearings, they’re turning up deeply damaging testimony that would in any normal circumstance be career-ending. Trump is not, as he’s proven many times, politically normal but even he must have a limit as to how far he can push things.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • E pluribus unum.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    He looks more like Chuckles than Chuck......
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    E pluribus unum.

    I'm renewing calls for that judge-led inquiry.
  • nunu2 said:

    Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

    Yes, one dimensional problem not 2 - trains exist in a space where people doing random things are not an issue unlike roads where there are cyclists, other human controlled vehicles, and random issues like potholes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    E pluribus unum.

    I'm renewing calls for that judge-led inquiry.
    I'm in wordpress writing my threads for tomorrow and I innocently noticed Mike had published a new thread.
  • nunu2 said:

    Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

    Works for the DLR.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I'm in wordpress writing my threads for tomorrow and I innocently noticed Mike had published a new thread.

    :o scandalous
  • Fascinating header.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    David Herdson, wouldn't Pelosi's obvious play be less convoluted? An agreement with the GOP Senate to remove Trump from office first, then allow Pence sufficient time to nominate and have approved his VP choice (perhaps even negotiated with the Dems) before impeaching and removing Pence.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    It's moved more than that at times for no reason at all in the last fortnight
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    nunu2 said:

    Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

    It already exists (for example the Copenhagen metro system is driverless and runs 24/7 all year around. The real problem is Boris. Bear in mind that this is the man who, as Mayor, proposed TFL running double decker trains (until it was pointed out they do not fit under London bridges) and then came back with the suggestion of adding more carriages, until it was pointed out they would not fit the platforms. The fact that technology is straightforward would in no way reduce the probability of it being a complete disaster if backed by Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    How liquid is the market? That could be the movement due to a £1 bet :p
  • Since the relevant betting markets are mostly british, can we assume there’ll be lots of silly money available on him leaving before the end of his term when folk see articles in the press saying he’s going to be impeached, without being aware that’s just the House process?
  • Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.
  • MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    How liquid is the market? That could be the movement due to a £1 bet :p
    It's a liquid market.

    eg Lab Maj:

    £249 offered at 38
    £127 wanting to back at 40
  • Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Thanks for that, I enjoy a good laugh
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nope. I have loads of friends who live on that line flirting with Labour and the Lib Dems, all of them have said this is a good move. Literally every single one is against the month long strike and if this stops that from happening again, they are all for it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Er, no.

    96% of commuters just want the trains to run on time and blame the nearest thing to hand (the unions) when they don't.

    And yes I've asked every one of them.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.
    Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.
    Bingo. You have to go quite a long way down the competence line before you find someone who couldn't be trained to be a train driver, and yet their closed shop gives them a cushy setup out of all proportion of their skill set
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Fpt someone asked about changing Amazon prices. I read somewhere that there is an algorithm - natch - which assesses visits and behaviour and adjusts prices dynamically accordingly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
  • TudorRose said:

    MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.
    Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....
    I’ve held my Labour majority bet for too long. Was getting greedy and though it would come in further by now with a tight poll or two. Now suspect I’m best off cutting losses.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

    Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.
  • TimT said:

    David Herdson, wouldn't Pelosi's obvious play be less convoluted? An agreement with the GOP Senate to remove Trump from office first, then allow Pence sufficient time to nominate and have approved his VP choice (perhaps even negotiated with the Dems) before impeaching and removing Pence.

    It's a possibility. But the negotiations would be difficult - though not as difficult as with Trump.
  • DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
  • MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    It could be nothing, and just punters catching up.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    TOPPING said:

    Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

    Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

    But being a bit more positive - at least the glasses are not doing their homage to Eric Morecambe.
  • maaarsh said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    Yep. It's bus drivers I feel sorry for. As far as I can make out, they have a much harder job, and are paid a fraction of what train drivers get.
    Bingo. You have to go quite a long way down the competence line before you find someone who couldn't be trained to be a train driver, and yet their closed shop gives them a cushy setup out of all proportion of their skill set
    One of the key requirements being a psychological one: not to be easily bored.

    There really isn't much for a train driver to do other than press a button to declare they're awake (and alive) and respond to black swan events.
  • Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
  • Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
  • If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    alb1on said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

    Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

    But being a bit more positive - at least the glasses are not doing their homage to Eric Morecambe.
    He looks like the original drummer of the Happy Mondays who was kicked out before they became famous and has been trying to get something together ever since.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
  • Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    Let's wait and see. I understood it was for between a quarter and a third of services and there are good continental precedents for it.

    Personally, I'd like to see total war declared on Mick Cash, but I accept that might be considered slightly hardline.
  • TudorRose said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?
    I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    edited November 2019

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
  • TudorRose said:

    MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    From 2017 I would say that the betting odds of a particular outcome are only tangentially related to their actual odds. Too many people betting on what they want to happen.
    Sounds right to me. I went into the Labour 200-up market and sold at 28. By now I would expect it to be closing in on 0 (and I can cash out) but it's still only got to 23. Meanwhile the Labour seats market is at 213.....
    I’ve held my Labour majority bet for too long. Was getting greedy and though it would come in further by now with a tight poll or two. Now suspect I’m best off cutting losses.
    I had to take a haircut on that too, and my LD majority bets.

    All seem very silly now but, when the vote was first called, this wasn't an obvious campaign to call at all and the polls were in very different places.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    £100.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Just done my postal vote - election over for me:)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    £100.
    Thank you.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    I don't know how I did it but I got onto Tories > 318 at 2.2 and Tories > 340 at 3.1. I won't be cashing in for a while.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

    How have you managed to avoid all the first hand testimony detailing the quid pro quo?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
  • DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
  • I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.
  • DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
    The old "tribal vote" perhaps?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    TOPPING said:

    Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

    Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

    We need a Strong Man you reckon? Get the trains running on time etc?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

    Yep, that would need a lead, not just a recovery - hard to see from here without Boris appointing Prince Andrew to his cabinet
  • TudorRose said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?
    I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.
    The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

    Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.
  • viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    Ton = £100
    Big One = £1,000
    Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Alistair said:

    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

    How have you managed to avoid all the first hand testimony detailing the quid pro quo?
    Would you like to provide some examples?
    There are plenty of witnesses saying they have no information or evidence of QPQ, and of course the dems arent talking about QPQ anymore, it's all 'bribery' now
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128

    I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

    Do you have any reason, other than tribal loyalty, to suspect such an outcome may come to pass? Genuine non-sarcastic question.
  • TudorRose said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?
    I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.
    The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

    Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.
    Perhaps the unions actually show how good working conditions and pay could be in other industries, if they had them too. Perhaps we should raise those wages, as opposed to shitting on train drivers.
  • viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    Ton = £100
    Big One = £1,000
    Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)
    It’s the old joke isn’t it? It’s very easy to have £1m in the bank. First you start with £3m......
  • DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
    The old "tribal vote" perhaps?
    Weren't they the subject of an experiment in postal-only voting for the Euros? Some people would have signed up for a permanent postal vote.
  • viewcode said:

    I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

    Do you have any reason, other than tribal loyalty, to suspect such an outcome may come to pass? Genuine non-sarcastic question.
    I didn't think it would come to pass. My theory was it would drop and I could cash out early.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128

    viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    Ton = £100
    Big One = £1,000
    Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)
    Useful info, thank you. Is this city slang, betting slang, or some other thing I'm not aware of?
  • egg said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
    That is a bit over the top
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

    That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

    👀
  • DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
    The old "tribal vote" perhaps?
    If I was going to guess, I’d say that the regional assembly referendum might have had one of Blair Gvt pushes on postal voting, and a lot of people got in the habit.
  • alb1on said:

    There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

    But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

    People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

    This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.
  • DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
    The old "tribal vote" perhaps?
    Weren't they the subject of an experiment in postal-only voting for the Euros? Some people would have signed up for a permanent postal vote.
    Oh that’s right, it was a few euro regions. That sounds right.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    alb1on said:

    nunu2 said:

    Surely driverlees train technology would be easier to perfect than driver less cars

    It already exists (for example the Copenhagen metro system is driverless and runs 24/7 all year around. The real problem is Boris. Bear in mind that this is the man who, as Mayor, proposed TFL running double decker trains (until it was pointed out they do not fit under London bridges) and then came back with the suggestion of adding more carriages, until it was pointed out they would not fit the platforms. The fact that technology is straightforward would in no way reduce the probability of it being a complete disaster if backed by Boris.
    Now imagine Corbyn running your broadband.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

    But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

    People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

    This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.
    More accurately, services have continued to run during the guards dispute, but there is no guarantee that would be the case in a dispute with more support amongst rail staff and unions. We need to think beyond today's dispute.
  • MikeL said:

    More movement last few mins:

    Lab Maj from 36 to 38

    Lab Most Seats 16.5 to 17

    Seems to be drifting the other way on another well known betting site with total seats
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kinabalu said:

    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

    That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

    👀
    I'm not in a foul mood today, it helps with the clarity bollocks
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
    That is a bit over the top
    Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

    Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

    Game changer.
  • TudorRose said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    Nah, everyone is fed up with the RMT and their militant bullshit. No-one believes them anymore.

    Of course, they hate SWR and FirstGroup as well, but the loathing is mutually exclusive.
    The Tories could have actually cared and introduced an automation policy, instead they're introducing a law which in practice won't do anything because during strikes well over 10% of services still run.
    You mean during the strikes they operate for the few not the many....?
    I support the right to strike, it's one of the most fundamental democratic rights there is.
    The right? No, but the trouble is that it's one that should be used as a last resort. It's for when the workforce have no alternative with intractable or unreasonable management, and have to do it due to exceptional and extreme circumstances. They should always be brief and proportionate. And a high bar should be set for striking to cripple essential services that ordinary working people rely upon.

    Instead, more often than not in the public sector, it's used as a cocked pistol for routine annual pay and benefit negotiations.
    Perhaps the unions actually show how good working conditions and pay could be in other industries, if they had them too. Perhaps we should raise those wages, as opposed to shitting on train drivers.
    That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

    If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

    And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.
  • DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    My postal vote was delivered on Thursday and obviously returned that evening.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    alb1on said:

    There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

    Another strategy sometimes used in Europe is for the services to run but staff refuse to collect or enforce fares. This probably wouldn’t be workable in the UK where the unions are separated by “trade”.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Southern Trains do not need any more government help.

  • That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

    If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

    And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

    Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.
  • egg said:

    egg said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
    That is a bit over the top
    Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

    Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

    Game changer.
    I very much doubt it
  • DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    My postal vote was delivered on Thursday and obviously returned that evening.
    A good chunk of PVs are returned within a day or two... My theory last time, if the election was entirely decided on the day JC would now be PM.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had big pockets this is just the sort of time I'd be dropping a couple of Big Ones on a Tory Majority, in all honesty.

    As it is I'm dropping in a ton or two only. I may put more in by payday, unless the odds have come down to something silly like 1.2 or less.

    Query "ton"; £100 or £1000?
    Ton = £100
    Big One = £1,000
    Stick = £Million (but not sure too many punters play at that level in politics)
    Useful info, thank you. Is this city slang, betting slang, or some other thing I'm not aware of?
    Cockney rhyming slang/cityspeak/wallstreet speak.

  • That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

    If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

    And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

    Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.
    Thank you.

    I think we'll take that as conceding the point then.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019
    First sign of an election in what is a relatively safe Tory seat; Con leaflet sent to postal voters urging them to send back.

    I'm sure the Cons will hope starting from next week there's not much of an election campaign.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    In 2017 it was 18.2%

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
    26% in the NE is a bit of an outlier. Wonder what happens there?
    The old "tribal vote" perhaps?
    Or just that the North East is older than the U.K as a whole.

    If the tories can maintain the big swing towards them as we've seen in the north east then they could bank a lot of early votes towards them over the next week or so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looking at the BBC news website front page there is s picture of Jezza wrapped up in a scarf and the story is that he is defending his neutral stance.

    Together with the story he looks nothing more than an irrelevant, perhaps kindly, old bloke. Certainly not a leader of the type i think is what we want right now.

    We need a Strong Man you reckon? Get the trains running on time etc?
    Absolutely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited November 2019
    maaarsh said:

    Just done my postal vote - election over for me:)

    Early exit poll?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
    That is a bit over the top
    Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

    Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

    Game changer.
    I very much doubt it
    Indeed. To most people the idea of striking is incredibly alien. Withdrawing of labour is done by quitting and finding a better job, not by striking and sulking.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Evening PB - Everyone ready for another Mega Polling Saturday?

    Eyes down and here we go... :D
  • alb1on said:

    There is a halfway house in respect of rail strike legislation which may have some appeal. I do not know whether it is enshrined in Italian law, but I have twice been in Trieste and wanting to travel to Mestre on the day of an Italian rail strike. I assumed I would be screwed and have to hire a car or taxi but no - the unions provide a window during each day when services run so that people can get where needed in emergency. It does not stop the union message being made, but it does prevent total chaos.

    But again in this country whenever we have a rail strike, many services do still run.

    People are acting as if a strike goes on and the services just stop, that isn't what happens.

    This law is probably popular - but it won't actually make a difference. And I suspect the Tories know that.
    If the strikes don't make a difference, what is the point of them?

  • That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

    If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

    And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

    Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.
    Thank you.

    I think we'll take that as conceding the point then.
    No I'm not conceding anything. I just think you personally attacking train drivers as being miserable is not relevant and just makes you look like an angry old person. I'm sure you're not like that at all - but I couldn't let that go unchallenged.

    In Germany they have wide collective bargaining, very high union membership and the result is very reliable trains, efficient public services and good wages.

    "Back to the 70s" is the most boring and oft-repeated attack I see on this site. There is not one policy from Labour that would do that, it's as ridiculous as me calling Boris Johnson a facist.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    I think you're rather over estimating the testimony. Pretty much all of them have said they personally saw or heard nothing that was a quid pro quo or that military aid would be withheld pending Biden being investigated. And, of course, in any Senate trial the Bidens will have to testify as proceedings are under the control of the (republican) senate who absolutely wont vote to convict (no Republicans supported impeachment hearings in the house). Biden is on thin ice and the Burisma affair could end his presidential run. Schiff will also find himself being questioned over his fake transcript that kicked this off. The FBI have expressed an interest in questioning the whistleblower. Finally the polling amongst independents has turned against impeachment, it has become a wholly partisan issue and we have the whistleblowers attorney (Zaid) tweeting in Jan 2017 'the coup has begun, impeachment will follow later'.

    Now, I'm soft on the Donald and hard on the Dems so my comments need to be seen in that light, but the coverage is heavily skewed by the anti trump msm and the dems having complete control over the process whilst it's in the house. All that changes if it goes to a full trial, and an acquittal will inevitably look bad on the Dems for pursuing an attempt to remove a sitting president, much as the Republicans attempt to oust Clinton did.

    I wouldn't waste money on anyone being president that isn't the Donald before the election.

    That is a cut above your usual, I have to say.

    👀
    Patronising c&&t.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    egg said:

    egg said:

    Not sure Boris's plan to ban rail strikes is such a good idea. A lot of commuters actually sympathize with the staff and see them as heroically defying the greedy and incompetent privatization fat cats. This could be seen as Boris just making life easier for his friends.

    If I was a commuter I would be relieved that someone is taking on the RMT
    It would be a crazy announcement, unnecessary class war announcement, a circle the wagons klaxon for the labour tribe, a patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for,* and cost Tories a majority in the seconds it takes to announce it.

    Such as the Decembrists and Freemasons fighting for the Russian Caesar against napoleon
    That is a bit over the top
    Consider the Tories 3.1 up at half time, all they need in second half is to see it out not start a fight.

    Every Labour poster to this site is praying tonight for strike banning announcements in tomorrow’s manifesto. Every Labour MP in trouble needs the Tories to start a sort of ideological patriotic war where it doesn’t matter your opinion of the czar you are fighting for.

    Game changer.
    I rather doubt it.
  • DeClare said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: the 1.54 has now gone.

    And NOM has gone from 3.05 to 3.1.

    Early rumours???

    Postal voting packs were being delivered today and some ballot slips will have already been posted back, any polls after today will start to become partial exit polls.
    Does anyone know what the percentage postal votes was last time? More interestingly, do we have any guesstimates on how quickly they get sent back?
    I know that in my district ward it is 22% and that is indicative of the constituency as a whole. However, that is the base of permanent ones before the new applications for this election. In my ward there are two of the eight parishes where voters would benefit more from PVs but they have markedly lower rates of PVs - I presume they want the polling business for their village halls in both cases.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    maaarsh said:

    I think I'm on Labour most seats at 8/1, I thought that might drop too. Might cut my losses.

    Yep, that would need a lead, not just a recovery - hard to see from here without Boris appointing Prince Andrew to his cabinet
    Don't give him any ideas!

  • That's absurd. The reason we have sky-high fares and railways are so expensive to build and operate are due to the union strangehold. And service reliability suffers too whenever a single rostered member of staff is out of the line.

    If we had unions everywhere, like the 70s, we'd have national stoppages and strikes in every sector you could think of (imagine Sainsbury's and Waitrose being empty due to regular lorrymen strikes) higher prices as a result, poorer choice as corporatism and consolidation occurred to counter the unions, and a sclerotic and unpredictable economy making it impossible for businesses to confidently invest. Everyone would be poorer and more miserable. It'd be an industrial relations masterclass in the tragedy of the commons.

    And have you met many train drivers by the way, particularly in TfL? They are some of the most miserable people on the planet, despite having superb pay and benefits.

    Maybe because people like you constantly shout and scream at them.
    Good evening all.

    CorrectHorseBattery, do you support Labour's proposals to end the ban on secondary strikes?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    Venn diagram of people who want to ban striking and who approved of the fuel refinery blockades is a circle
This discussion has been closed.