I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….
To what do you ascribe the sharp recovery in Corbyn's rating, then (admittedly just from "dreadful" to "bad")? I'm not wedded to the debate theory, but it's the obvious thing for a change during this week, no? It's not helped the party yet, though, so it's of marginal interest.
I assign this to Labour/Momentum's social media barrage. In the run uo to an election, virtually every bit of politics I see without actively choosing to is on social media, and is relentlessly pro-Corbyn and anti-Tory.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
Doesn't it had LDs up 2? Thought we won 12 seat last time. I might have misunderstood your post, however.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
270,000? I know MRP samples are big, but it seems to me more like they must've burned through all YouGov's normal panel interviews and MRPs over a substantial period. IANAS, but I wonder if enough of those will have carried the level of demographic data needed for high quality regression and strata building.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Nothing is as simple as that.
The problem at the Leicester Royal Infirmary is not the price of parking, but rather the availibility. I have never heard a complaint about the charges, but get several a day about the wait to get in the carpark.
It's supply and demand. Build us a 2000 space multi storey carpark*, then quibble about charges.
*where being an obvious first question! Perhaps scrap the new maternity and children's block to find space!
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
I don't think I'd mind the Tories winning if it came at the price of the likes of Raab losing their seats.
So the Tories gain 31 whilst also lose a decent stack to the SNP and also a few to the LDs.
A couple of weeks out, that looks pretty good for the Tories - but that's not a huge margin to start from IMHO, it could all go very wrong still.
It gives a lot of room to have tactical voting deny them a majority. New Statesman cites 5 seats going if people vote tactically and I suspect there are more.
I still think a Hung Parliament is on the cards, if people vote tactically - and youth turnout goes up.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It's +2 Lib Dem (they won 12 MPs at GE2017) and +32 Conservatives (compared to 317 at GE2017), so the numbers do balance.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Yes I forgot about that last bit .
Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Nothing is as simple as that.
The supermarket near my parents has a number plate scanner on entry and exit, it automatically gives you a ticket if you stay longer than the 3h limit.
To be honest, if they could just get enough machines working at Wythenshawe Hospital so that you could pay and be on your way without hobbling around the campus for 20 minutes it would be a start.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Yes I forgot about that last bit .
Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."
It was an autocorrect, it should read 'Marzipan dildo'
How can the Lib Dems be on only 14 seats in this model and within 3,000 votes of unseating Raab?
I would have thought that if they get that close to winning Raab's seat they would have to be into the high 20s at a minimum already.
God alone knows. It's a shame we can't see the list of the 14 predicted seats. Perhaps the model predicts some extreme swings against a handful of Brexiteer Tories whilst, simultaneously, showing a string of successful Lab defences in constituencies like Cambridge, and handing a clutch of existing LD seats over to the SNP and Conservatives further away from London?
Westmorland and Lonsdale, North Norfolk, possibly Eastbourne, and one or more of the seats in Scotland might be rated as losses.
Anyway, the model appears to imply about four dozen net Labour losses. I would guess that kind of serious, but not catastrophic, damage implies the expected decimation in Scotland, significant reverses in the Midlands, but lighter damage in the North and Wales.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Yes I forgot about that last bit .
Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."
It was an autocorrect, it should read 'Marzipan dildo'
Was that meant for PB or for your letter to Santa? 😅
I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?
Possibly. Nobody really knows.
The polls must have been really awesome for you to say that.
Ok, now that I've checked the actual figures they don't look half bad considering the Opposition just offered the biggest bribe in modern political history. Panic level has been reduced to moderate, pending release of the Tory manifesto.
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….
To what do you ascribe the sharp recovery in Corbyn's rating, then (admittedly just from "dreadful" to "bad")? I'm not wedded to the debate theory, but it's the obvious thing for a change during this week, no? It's not helped the party yet, though, so it's of marginal interest.
I assign this to Labour/Momentum's social media barrage. In the run uo to an election, virtually every bit of politics I see without actively choosing to is on social media, and is relentlessly pro-Corbyn and anti-Tory.
Almost everything political I see on social media is incredibly anti Corbyn.
That's one of the things about it. We all see different things.
They wouldn’t have pre-briefed the whole manifesto. What aren’t we yet seeing? Something on housing? Something on student loans following the accounting changes?
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Yes I forgot about that last bit .
Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."
It was an autocorrect, it should read 'Marzipan dildo'
Was that meant for PB or for your letter to Santa? 😅
A tribute to The Thick Of It.
Moaning about minister on the phone: "He's about as much use as a marzipan dildo."
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Just do what many businesses - particularly pubs - do in towns and cities. Have a system in place where you enter your registration number when you check in at reception inside the hospital. Any vehicle which is not entered on the database for that time gets a fine/towed away.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
270,000? I know MRP samples are big, but it seems to me more like they must've burned through all YouGov's normal panel interviews and MRPs over a substantial period. IANAS, but I wonder if enough of those will have carried the level of demographic data needed for high quality regression and strata building.
Yes my model is much simpler and runs off just one regular sized poll (more or less) and gives very similar numbers. I think if the Tory lead is around 10-15pp it will give something in this ballpark.
I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?
Possibly. Nobody really knows.
The polls must have been really awesome for you to say that.
Labour got up to 32% (+1) with ComRes. Labour surge watch continues. But yes, overall they weren't too bad. Doesn't mean that will remain the case though.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?
Nothing is as simple as that.
The supermarket near my parents has a number plate scanner on entry and exit, it automatically gives you a ticket if you stay longer than the 3h limit.
Just an hour in the M&S in Dartmouth before you get a ticket.
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?
Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.
Yes I forgot about that last bit .
Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."
It was an autocorrect, it should read 'Marzipan dildo'
Steady on. Should Boris get decapitated in Uxbridge or fall on his sword when the Arcuri financial arrangement finally reaches full scandal status, Raab is quite likely next PM!
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
I still think they will.
About 9-12 seats, I think. LDs should hold onto all of theirs and Labour only 1-3 seats.
I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?
Possibly. Nobody really knows.
The polls must have been really awesome for you to say that.
Labour got up to 32% (+1) with ComRes. Labour surge watch continues. But yes, overall they weren't too bad. Doesn't mean that will remain the case though.
But you'd rather be in Boris's shoes than Corbyn's, with two and half weeks of campaigning left to go......
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
The lack of Scotland polling is depressing. I think 49 is too high for the Nats but not by much, more like 43 or 44 for me with 4 or 5 LDs and the rest Tories
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
YouGov MRP did not do that well in Scotland. I presume failed to adjust for SNP polling overstatement.
I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?
Possibly. Nobody really knows.
The polls must have been really awesome for you to say that.
Labour got up to 32% (+1) with ComRes. Labour surge watch continues. But yes, overall they weren't too bad. Doesn't mean that will remain the case though.
But you'd rather be in Boris's shoes than Corbyn's, with two and half weeks of campaigning left to go......
Of course. These things are all relative.
But there's still time for the robots to get marching. And remember 1992. Labour's reputation is so bad there could be meaningful numbers of Shy Labour voters this time.
But yours truly will never be satisfied. At least, not until we get to Friday 13th and the horror has been visited upon the Labour Party rather than the rest of us, hopefully. I'm too much of a pessimist and the stakes are too high.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
YouGov MRP did not do that well in Scotland. I presume failed to adjust for SNP polling overstatement.
I concur. And given the truly vast sample-size, most of the data is very stale.
I think Casino is about right on SNP Seats: low 40s, maybe even below 40, depending on how the SCon to SLD unwind pans out.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
The lack of Scotland polling is depressing. I think 49 is too high for the Nats but not by much, more like 43 or 44 for me with 4 or 5 LDs and the rest Tories
It's a different game north of the border.
MRP works well in modelling Tory or Labour seats, where demographics really drive it, but less so in an environment where unionist voters will swap votes amongst all three major parties to block the SNP.
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
YouGov MRP did not do that well in Scotland. I presume failed to adjust for SNP polling overstatement.
I concur. And given the truly vast sample-size, most of the data is very stale.
I think Casino is about right on SNP Seats: low 40s, maybe even below 40, depending on how the SCon to SLD unwind pans out.
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
Yes, I thought I detected some weaslery in Shippers words:
"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)
Interesting. They appear to have constituency-based data since they're opining about precise figures in individualk seats, so it's presumably done in cojunction with YouGov. But it seems extremely unlikely to be demographically balanced by constituency, doesn't it?
That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.
The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):
Con+31 Lab -49 LD +6 SNP +14 Plaid +1 - not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.
The lack of Scotland polling is depressing. I think 49 is too high for the Nats but not by much, more like 43 or 44 for me with 4 or 5 LDs and the rest Tories
It's a different game north of the border.
MRP works well in modelling Tory or Labour seats, where demographics really drive it, but less so in an environment where unionist voters will swap votes amongst all three major parties to block the SNP.
The YouGov MRP in 2017 overestimated them too.
That’s a very good point . Also thanks for the other reply re the BBC.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
So latest ComRes is saying 55% of 18-24 certain to vote, compared to 80% of 65+. Does anyone know how this compares to previous polls?
All people likely to vote (5+), has a Tory lead of 9 points, 38% to 29%. So looks like Labour vote being so much less likely to turnout, is doing them a lot of damage.
Whence this idea that Corbyn is improving his ratings? From Opinium?
The gold standard, IPSOS, still has him way way down in their latest poll, November 19. Just 4 days ago. Perhaps the debates really shifted things, but we have no authoritative evidence of that, yet.
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
Yes, I thought I detected some weaslery in Shippers words:
"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)
Interesting. They appear to have constituency-based data since they're opining about precise figures in individualk seats, so it's presumably done in cojunction with YouGov. But it seems extremely unlikely to be demographically balanced by constituency, doesn't it?
It's a MRP poll. They are cross referencing precise constituency demographics to a detailed breakdown of the demographics and geography of the source sample to produce constituency estimates.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
One of the key rules in UK GE forecasting is: never, ever be bullish on LD seats. They *always* underperform against expectations.
Adding the latest Delta and ComRes poll into the EMA hardly moves the dial. A move of one seat from the Con column to Lab. Lab now just hold Weaver Vale.
Whence this idea that Corbyn is improving his ratings? From Opinium?
The gold standard, IPSOS, still has him way way down in their latest poll, November 19. Just 4 days ago. Perhaps the debates really shifted things, but we have no authoritative evidence of that, yet.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
One of the key rules in UK GE forecasting is: never, ever be bullish on LD seats. They *always* underperform against expectations.
I got some great prices being bearish on them in the first couple of weeks.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
The anecdotal data, including various constituency polls, seems to suggest the LD vote is heavily focused in seats they stand a chance in. If so, an overall 12-15% vote for them could deliver many more seats than UNS would predict.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
YouGov asked for my information on Thursday/Friday night. I thought I had had the panel survey from them earlier in the week, but that turned out to be Ashcroft.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
The anecdotal data, including various constituency polls, seems to suggest the LD vote is heavily focused in seats they stand a chance in. If so, an overall 12-15% vote for them could deliver many more seats than UNS would predict.
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
Yes, I thought I detected some weaslery in Shippers words:
"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)
Interesting. They appear to have constituency-based data since they're opining about precise figures in individualk seats, so it's presumably done in cojunction with YouGov. But it seems extremely unlikely to be demographically balanced by constituency, doesn't it?
Demographic data by constituency is available widely. It’s open data. The yougov survey correlates voting intention with their demographic data from their panel. Once you have the correlations you can apply them to the open data. Making a set of assumptions along the way, of course, which is the nub of the matter.
I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.
*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
The anecdotal data, including various constituency polls, seems to suggest the LD vote is heavily focused in seats they stand a chance in. If so, an overall 12-15% vote for them could deliver many more seats than UNS would predict.
This is what leaves me thinking that it's most likely that Johnson *just* squeaks a majority. If the Labour and Lib Dem vote is efficient as this suggests then the quirks of FPTP may leave Johnson raking in votes in leave areas for a large vote lead but with a minuscule majority. I'm beginning to rule out a hung parliament but I think a Tory landslide is wishful thinking and then some at present.
Comments
Good night.
Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.
Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.
"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)
It's supply and demand. Build us a 2000 space multi storey carpark*, then quibble about charges.
*where being an obvious first question! Perhaps scrap the new maternity and children's block to find space!
A couple of weeks out, that looks pretty good for the Tories - but that's not a huge margin to start from IMHO, it could all go very wrong still.
It gives a lot of room to have tactical voting deny them a majority. New Statesman cites 5 seats going if people vote tactically and I suspect there are more.
I still think a Hung Parliament is on the cards, if people vote tactically - and youth turnout goes up.
Big ifs as always - and I do hope that happens.
It's all downhill from here.
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1198366319399329792?s=19
Westmorland and Lonsdale, North Norfolk, possibly Eastbourne, and one or more of the seats in Scotland might be rated as losses.
Anyway, the model appears to imply about four dozen net Labour losses. I would guess that kind of serious, but not catastrophic, damage implies the expected decimation in Scotland, significant reverses in the Midlands, but lighter damage in the North and Wales.
Ok, now that I've checked the actual figures they don't look half bad considering the Opposition just offered the biggest bribe in modern political history. Panic level has been reduced to moderate, pending release of the Tory manifesto.
That's one of the things about it. We all see different things.
Moaning about minister on the phone: "He's about as much use as a marzipan dildo."
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/tvandradioblog/2009/oct/15/thick-of-it-malcolm-tucker
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198365285901881345
About 9-12 seats, I think. LDs should hold onto all of theirs and Labour only 1-3 seats.
So, 40-45 SNP seats.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198361226574778369
But there's still time for the robots to get marching. And remember 1992. Labour's reputation is so bad there could be meaningful numbers of Shy Labour voters this time.
But yours truly will never be satisfied. At least, not until we get to Friday 13th and the horror has been visited upon the Labour Party rather than the rest of us, hopefully. I'm too much of a pessimist and the stakes are too high.
Comfortable Tory majority but not enough for Corbyn to call it quits! He will still try to hang on with a result like that.
I think Casino is about right on SNP Seats: low 40s, maybe even below 40, depending on how the SCon to SLD unwind pans out.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1191352370917265408?s=19
MRP works well in modelling Tory or Labour seats, where demographics really drive it, but less so in an environment where unionist voters will swap votes amongst all three major parties to block the SNP.
The YouGov MRP in 2017 overestimated them too.
SCon 41%
SNP 36%
SLab 12%
SLD 12%
SLD seriously underperformed MRP (tactical switch to Ruth’s Candidate.)
I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...
All people likely to vote (5+), has a Tory lead of 9 points, 38% to 29%. So looks like Labour vote being so much less likely to turnout, is doing them a lot of damage.
The gold standard, IPSOS, still has him way way down in their latest poll, November 19. Just 4 days ago. Perhaps the debates really shifted things, but we have no authoritative evidence of that, yet.
Con/Lab/LD 340/210/31 Tory majority of 30
I am on Esther going LD at 6.