politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum
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You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.0 -
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.0 -
Sedgefield is 91st on the Tories target listTudorRose said:
Talking of Blair; Sedgefield might be interesting.HYUFD said:
Sunderland Central is 135th on the Tory target list, if Boris won Sunderland Central he would have a bigger majority than Blair did in 1997 so unlikelyGallowgate said:Don’t forget that @HYUFD has assured us that Sunderland Central will go Tory.
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The new EU council President is Charles Michel from Belgium, he won’t be so quick to push for any further extensions .TheJezziah said:
Yeah was a nice last message from him as well, we were lucky to have him in place.nico67 said:Donald Tusk will be retiring at the end of November .
He will be sadly missed by Remainers .
He was always on our side and passionately believed in all that’s good about working together and being part of that bigger European family .
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Ken Clarke's retiring.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I think he's restored it to those who voted with the whip on the Queen's Speech and/or the Letwin Amendment which is fair enough.0 -
ydoethur said:
With hindsight, so should I have done...a grossly inappropriate comment made in reply to mine.Beibheirli_C said:
There are so many things I could say to that, but I think I will just let it slide.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah I meant him and Staffordshire.ydoethur said:
I’ll buy it. Who is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's this chap in Stoke that's quite good and all One Nation Tories should support.Gallowgate said:
Phil Hammond?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
If you say ‘Tissue Price’ be aware that you have just condemned him to defeat at the hands of highly parochial and definitely non-Stoke voters in Newcastle under Lyme...
In my defence I've spent most of today in a sexual harassment seminar.
Oh, and something about the forms going in the bottom drawer as well.
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You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.0 -
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.1
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I see that seminar did not take.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.0 -
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.ydoethur said:
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.0 -
If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.0 -
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.Philip_Thompson said:
Ken Clarke's retiring..Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...0 -
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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Every election, no matter how chaotic the outcome, is capable of providing a functioning government. Sadly they are not learning to do what is needed to function when there is no solid majority, and recent experience in some other countries having elections year after year suggest it is not an east thing to learn.Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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iirc the Act actually specifies a Thursday in May. So will have to be altered.RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
Once again it seems the drafters of this utter piece of crap didn't imagine the current situation.
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Never been less excited about an election.0
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No:RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
"(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."0 -
MPs now waffling on about anything other than the matter of the amendment0
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So it all comes down to if Corbyn can inspire the troops like he did last time.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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2001 for me, I knew nothing would change,Jonathan said:Never been less excited about an election.
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I think he means, ‘are polling much lower.’rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
If that’s behind, I hate to think what a massive Tory lead would be...0 -
No amendment is necessary. This motion (Bill) has driven a coach thru the act anyway.rottenborough said:
iirc the Act actually specifies a Thursday in May. So will have to be altered.RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
Once again it seems the drafters of this utter piece of crap didn't imagine the current situation.0 -
Labour were actually nearer 30% in early 2017 and not nearer 20% as now and the LDs were on 10% in 2017 compared to 18% nowrottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?Chris said:
No:RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
"(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."0 -
Father of the House does that, but Skinner has said he'd refuse that honorific so will that change matters?ydoethur said:
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.Philip_Thompson said:
Ken Clarke's retiring..Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...0 -
I don't know why the government would, even unofficially concede on the date. See if you can win first, then if you lose say you'll still back the bill.0
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The completely different turnout alone we can expect for a December election is surely sufficient to throw everything we already think about the polls, elections etc. out the window, if we weren't planning that anyway.0
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When is the vote on this amendment?0
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Spain’s going for four in four in novemberkle4 said:
Every election, no matter how chaotic the outcome, is capable of providing a functioning government. Sadly they are not learning to do what is needed to function when there is no solid majority, and recent experience in some other countries having elections year after year suggest it is not an east thing to learn.Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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No, because it’s not an honorific. It’s the nickname for the longest serving MP, who takes charge if the role of Speaker is vacant. If he wins, that’s him.Philip_Thompson said:
Father of the House does that, but Skinner has said he'd refuse that honorific so will that change matters?ydoethur said:
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.Philip_Thompson said:
Ken Clarke's retiring..Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...
He might choose to have diplomatic toothache or something (albeit that would be out of character). But he can’t say he’s not the longest serving MP.0 -
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
Not sure it is something one can refuse is it? If he's the MP with the longest continuous service it is what he is, even if he does not want the honourific, and the duty would fall to him. What would he do, refuse to undertake one simple duty? For a man in his late 80s he can be very child like. Because he doesn't like the title they give the longest serving MP he'd refuse to do it?Philip_Thompson said:
Father of the House does that, but Skinner has said he'd refuse that honorific so will that change matters?ydoethur said:
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.Philip_Thompson said:
Ken Clarke's retiring..Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...0 -
2001 was my first election and only time I voted Labour for my sins.TheScreamingEagles said:
2001 for me, I knew nothing would change,Jonathan said:Never been less excited about an election.
2005 for me, I knew the Tories would lose and didn't think they'd deserve to win after IDS/Howard but held my nose and voted for them as I'd come to really dislike Brown and thought it best the Tories get closer to Labour.
Cameron was the first and only Tory leader of my adult lifetime that I actually liked before Johnson.0 -
You mean they might elect a Tory one?Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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By mid-April Labour was really in the 23% - 27% range.HYUFD said:
Labour were actually nearer 30% in early 2017 and not nearer 20% as now and the LDs were on 10% in 2017 compared to 18% nowrottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
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A much closer initial polling position is also a _good_ thing, because unlike at GE2017 you won't have a bunch of ******* morons voting for Corbyn as a free hit against the Tories and nearly electing him by accident!ydoethur said:
I think he means, ‘are polling much lower.’rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189261738027470849Black_Rook said:How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
If that’s behind, I hate to think what a massive Tory lead would be...1 -
I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost and gives him 3 extra pre-Christmas days to get Brexit completed in December so we can leave on New Year's Eve.0
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Andrew Rosindell entered Parliament for the first time in 2001 when he gained Romford from Labour, 1 of just 5 Tory gains from Labour that yearTheScreamingEagles said:
2001 for me, I knew nothing would change,Jonathan said:Never been less excited about an election.
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I would agree with you, which is why I unwontedly said “holy shit” in front of our 3-year old on seeing the constituency polling earlier.YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
Far from zero...YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
They are still frontmen (people) for a party that has been trying to bail the Tories out on Brexit. I reckon the LDs stand an excellent chance.YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
Meanwhile Cash is droning on without mentioning the election date. The dep Speaker has given up trying to enforce keeping MPs to the amendment.
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Because you think Labour are in real trouble?Jonathan said:Never been less excited about an election.
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I bet Mrs Capitano gave you hell for that! What was the penance, a three hour recital of Graham Kendrick?El_Capitano said:
I would agree with you, which is why I unwontedly said “holy shit” in front of our 3-year old on seeing the constituency polling earlier.YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
Fun fact, Erskine May explicitly states that success speakers have declared that the common assumption that the doors of the Commons are shut in Black Rod's face as a sign of the House's right to deny Black Rod entry is incorrect. Apparently its abotu establishing their identity.0
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Cameron doesn't elaborate. You have the impression it was internal politics, possibly German, possibly EU, possibly both. She's a pragmatic politician, even more so than Cameron, I should think.ydoethur said:
A drunken oaf dismissed as PM of Luxembourg after his security service was caught rigging elections and who made his country a byword for tax fraud might not have been the smart choice? Who would have thought that, eh?Peter_the_Punter said:
One of the nice little gems from Cameron's memoirs is that both he and Merkel were not keen on Juncker's appointment. Hindsight suggests their misgivings were justified.ydoethur said:
Donald Tusk was impressive. Hard to imagine his successor will do better.nico67 said:Donald Tusk will be retiring at the end of November .
He will be sadly missed by Remainers .
He was always on our side and passionately believed in all that’s good about working together and being part of that bigger European family .
This lady replacing Juncker, on the other hand, will only have to stand upright without swaying to be a distinct improvement.
Which begs the question - why did Merkel not block him if she realised this? I suspect she was merely urbanely agreeing with Cameron to his face to try and change his mind, rather than saying what she thought. If she had had misgivings, Juncker would have been discarded faster than a Labour MP caught talking common sense.0 -
There's no danger of the Tories coming through the middle in Cambridge so the people there can vote freely. I think the students could go Lib Dem.0
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2001 was a very boring election, except for the fact that turnout tanked from 71% to 59%.0
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I think that's right.ydoethur said:
So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?Chris said:
No:RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
"(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."0 -
Finally something has come along to make the Christmas period interesting.blueblue said:
I'm rarely been more excited - it'll be a bare-knuckle fight of opposing ideologies and personalities that will determine the future direction of the country for decades to come. Real death-or-glory stuff!Jonathan said:Never been less excited about an election.
It's not going to be all just stupid jumpers, endless sales and folk at work looking at you like you're a monster because you don't want to shit up your desk with two miles of tinsel.0 -
Cambridge goes down on the 29th November.Artist said:There's no danger of the Tories coming through the middle in Cambridge so the people there can vote freely. I think the students could go Lib Dem.
Edit - actually on checking my source was wrong and it’s the 6th December, but...0 -
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
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.
Tone's seen the constituency mapswilliamglenn said:1 -
All those pictures of Boris with Trump...Philip_Thompson said:I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....
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It is remarkable that turnout could tank so dramatically and not change anything.AndyJS said:2001 was a very boring election, except for the fact that turnout tanked from 71% to 59%.
Also remarkable that it has never recovered in a General Election since. I wouldn't rule out this election having the highest turnout since 1997.0 -
There aren’t any more options .williamglenn said:
This Parliament will never endorse a second vote . As a Remainer we’re out of options .
And let’s say the miracle happened who would legislate for it . The Tories wouldn’t and a GNU wasn’t going to happen .
Indeed it could have been worse , the deal will eventually have got over the line.
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I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.2 -
6th December.ydoethur said:
Cambridge goes down on the 29th November.Artist said:There's no danger of the Tories coming through the middle in Cambridge so the people there can vote freely. I think the students could go Lib Dem.
Edit - actually on checking my source was wrong and it’s the 6th December, but...
(You are a year out of date).0 -
She did! But I think the penance would be more likely to be Handel (who she loves, and I don’t... far too diddly-diddly for my taste).ydoethur said:
I bet Mrs Capitano gave you hell for that! What was the penance, a three hour recital of Graham Kendrick?El_Capitano said:
I would agree with you, which is why I unwontedly said “holy shit” in front of our 3-year old on seeing the constituency polling earlier.YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
What could possibly go wrong!viewcode said:
All those pictures of Boris with Trump...Philip_Thompson said:I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....
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Bafflingly, Trump is not necessarily unpopular with the voters Johnson is trying to attract.viewcode said:
All those pictures of Boris with Trump...Philip_Thompson said:I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....
It’s like Corbyn hanging out with all those mass murderers. We thought that would damage him, but as they were Irish mass murderers that was OK with Labour voters.0 -
Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.williamglenn said:
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Where in your narrative does Corbyn have the fatal accident?rottenborough said:I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.0 -
Last throw of the dice no other alternatives bring it on.nico67 said:
There aren’t any more options .williamglenn said:
This Parliament will never endorse a second vote . As a Remainer we’re out of options .
And let’s say the miracle happened who would legislate for it . The Tories wouldn’t and a GNU wasn’t going to happen .
Indeed it could have been worse , the deal will eventually have got over the line.0 -
It's dead as a piece of legislation now.Chris said:
I think that's right.ydoethur said:
So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?Chris said:
No:RobD said:If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
"(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."0 -
Tony's hitting the panic button.williamglenn said:
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My money's on 56+ LD MPs but so much depends on the next six weeks and anything can happen.timmo said:
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
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All we like sheep have gone astray?El_Capitano said:
She did! But I think the penance would be more likely to be Handel (who she loves, and I don’t... far too diddly-diddly for my taste).ydoethur said:
I bet Mrs Capitano gave you hell for that! What was the penance, a three hour recital of Graham Kendrick?El_Capitano said:
I would agree with you, which is why I unwontedly said “holy shit” in front of our 3-year old on seeing the constituency polling earlier.YBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
Always here for a wild prediction.rottenborough said:I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
I can only see Tory Maj or hung parliament again.
LD to put on votes, but few seats. Tory and Lab collapse again in Scotland.
Ian Murray to win in Edinburgh South.0 -
Amendment goes to division. Sounds like Tories may still oppose it0
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Corbo looks well up for this0
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I see you have given up on the will of the people argument.HYUFD said:
Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.williamglenn said:0 -
Bj = British Trump at that!nico67 said:
What could possibly go wrong!viewcode said:
All those pictures of Boris with Trump...Philip_Thompson said:I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....
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I would urge caution.timmo said:
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.0 -
Well naturally - he can almost smell the sweet, sweet marrow of retirement...Anabobazina said:Corbo looks well up for this
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Short of something very dramatic, it is extremely hard to see how the Tories do not get enough seats to make it impossible for anyone else to form a government, particularly as nobody is willing to work with Corbyn (and even if they were he’s too tribal to work with them).AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Always here for a wild prediction.rottenborough said:I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
I can only see Tory Maj or hung parliament again.
LD to put on votes, but few seats. Tory and Lab collapse again in Scotland.
Ian Murray to win in Edinburgh South.
So my prediction is, if NOM a further election in twelve months, at which a new Labour leader will be victorious.1 -
If amendment is carried, the Speaker election falls back to post GE. And this week will be a legislative rush.0
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I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
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True , it’s a chance that I didn’t think would happen . I’ve been getting a bit fed up with some MPs who keep peddling the second vote before an election. It’s not going to happen , they need to face reality .nichomar said:
Last throw of the dice no other alternatives bring it on.nico67 said:
There aren’t any more options .williamglenn said:
This Parliament will never endorse a second vote . As a Remainer we’re out of options .
And let’s say the miracle happened who would legislate for it . The Tories wouldn’t and a GNU wasn’t going to happen .
Indeed it could have been worse , the deal will eventually have got over the line.
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In Washington DCsolarflare said:I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
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There is something behind the move for an election by the lib dems, they have just released their second constituency poll in a couple of weeks. Not getting too excited but things could get interesting.MikeSmithson said:
My money's on 56+ LD MPs but so much depends on the next six weeks and anything can happen.timmo said:
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).0 -
I think the Labour internal polling is right.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.1 -
Southwark and Vauxhall will likely go LD from Labour, as may Kensington and Battersea, as well as Cambridge and Sheffield HallamYBarddCwsc said:
I would urge caution.timmo said:
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.0 -
Fantasy land...MarqueeMark said:I think the Labour internal polling is right.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.0 -
Edited.solarflare said:I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
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If Labour lose 100 seats they are likely to be near level with the LDs on voteshare and with even fewer MPs than Foot got in 1983, the next non Tory PM could then be LD not Labour, perhaps ChukaMarqueeMark said:I think the Labour internal polling is right.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.0 -
On a plane back.eek said:
In Washington DCsolarflare said:I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
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1983 again for the Labour Party?MarqueeMark said:I think the Labour internal polling is right.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
So, who will be Neil Kinnock?0
This discussion has been closed.