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  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    malcolmg said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:


    And he goes this next week.

    Cannot come soon enough.

    The pompous, bullying, pro remain speaker has demeaned his office on a scale I could not imagine of any speaker

    The reactions in the house next week should emphasize just how partisan and biased he has been as a speaker.

    The silence on one side versus enthusiastic praise on the other is not a sign of competence in someone whose role should be executed as an impartial arbiter.

    He has been terrible but fortunately there is an opportunity for the next incumbent, and as a Tory i'd be happy with Hoyle, to restore the respect to a role that has been debased over the last few years.
    +1

    If MPs collectively want to restore some sanity to politics, they’ll choose a mild-mannered and impartial umpire in Lindsay Hoyle.

    My worry is that, if they don’t, we’ll quickly go down the American route of having partisan Speakers and Judges.
    The Speaker is not there to be impartial. He is there to speak for the interests of Parliament. John Bercow evidently has the support of MPs in his stances - unsurprisingly so when the executive is clueless, authoritarian and lacking any mandate for its approach.

    A supine Speaker who rolls over before the government is exactly not what is required just now.
    No. He evidently has the support of some MPs - and therein lies the problem. Every time he pleases/upsets some MPs they are the same ones; and that doesn't help Parliament in the slightest.
    As John Bercow himself pointed out, Jacob Rees-Mogg has done a 180 degree turn in six months. We have the absurdity of seeing Leavers scream for less Parliamentary scrutiny for policies that Parliament is unpersuaded by. Just to state it shows the ridiculousness of their position.
    When taking office Bercow said 'My commitment to this House is to be completely impartial as between members of one political party and another.' He has clearly failed in that commitment (as indeed he has to others, such as transparency).
    His job is to help MPs do their jobs. Your suggestion that he has been partial between parties is impossible to sustain. You just really like policies for which there is nothing like a majority in Parliament and would like MPs not to be able to do their jobs in relation to those policies.
    You are a "Biased Tory" is the words you are looking for Alistair. He seems incapable of separating party from what is right.
    Oh, look - somebody just put a turnip in the meter!
  • It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    The YouGov poll in The Times asked about the deal as well, and got

    Good Deal 19%
    Neither good nor bad 20%
    Bad deal 28%
    Don't know 34%

    Still a fair bit to play for, but the drift is clear. Presumably, that's why the government wants this through quickly.

    Incidentally, in theory, we're a few days from a crisis, but it doesn't feel that way. What's going on?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    edited October 2019
    SunnyJim said:


    I've read that Tory strategists are surprised by how well Johnson is polling with blue collar workers in the North/Midlands. May be a false rumour, but fits a general feeling.

    I had some (a lot) of reservations about how Johnson would go down with voters who perhaps weren't familiar with him which is pretty much everywhere outside London.

    I thought his slightly pompous, rambling, upper class buffoon act would go down like a cup of cold sick but the opposite seems to be true.

    I think the younger generation find him funny and the older generation find him a breath of fresh air from typical politicians.

    Which is fine up until the point the kids don't find him funny anymore and the older crowd realise that quirky doesn't always mean different.

    I suppose it depends who you speak to. The kids that I speak to don't find him funny and the older generation I speak to find him quite repellent. Chacun a son gout as they say in Hartlepool.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    TudorRose said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    I don't think the EU will risk embroiling themselves in our politics (they would be mad to do so) and so I don't expect conditions (such as a GE) to be given. However a delay until January does not give enough time for a 2nd referendum and so the implication will be fairly clear.

    What puzzles me is the timing of the announcement; we now have a catch 22 situation - Corbyn won't go for a GE until the EU make a decision and the EU won't make a decision until they see what happens about a GE.
    Only way it will ever happen is if EU force the issue , our wobbly jellies will defer until forced.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    A Prime Minister’s weaknesses seem to be known at the outset, and they are inevitably the final cause of their downfall, too.

    We knew May was inflexible, introverted, secretive, a control freak; we knew Cameron was facile, solipsistic, intellectually lazy; we knew Blair was narcissistic, glib, and unscrupulous.

    We know Boris’s character is worse - perhaps far worse - than any of the above, too. The only question is exactly how this plays out.
    :+1:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    So Corbyn’s latest position is that he won’t vote for an election unless “no deal at the end of 2020 is taken off the table”. But that can only happen if the legislation is amended and voted for in advance of the election vote being taken (and can’t bind the EU anyway). But he won’t vote for the legislation if amended to that effect, and won’t permit an accelerated timetable to allow it to happen anyway.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    TudorRose said:

    malcolmg said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:


    And he goes this next week.

    Cannot come soon enough.

    The pompous, bullying, pro remain speaker has demeaned his office on a scale I could not imagine of any speaker

    The reactions in the house next week should emphasize just how partisan and biased he has been as a speaker.

    The silence on one side versus enthusiastic praise on the other is not a sign of competence in someone whose role should be executed as an impartial arbiter.

    He has been terrible but fortunately there is an opportunity for the next incumbent, and as a Tory i'd be happy with Hoyle, to restore the respect to a role that has been debased over the last few years.
    +1

    If MPs collectively want to restore some sanity to politics, they’ll choose a mild-mannered and impartial umpire in Lindsay Hoyle.

    My worry is that, if they don’t, we’ll quickly go down the American route of having partisan Speakers and Judges.
    The Speaker is not there to be impartial. He is there to speak for the interests of Parliament. John Bercow evidently has the support of MPs in his stances - unsurprisingly so when the executive is clueless, authoritarian and lacking any mandate for its approach.

    A supine Speaker who rolls over before the government is exactly not what is required just now.
    No. He evidently has the support of some MPs - and therein lies the problem. Every time he pleases/upsets some MPs they are the same ones; and that doesn't help Parliament in the slightest.
    SNIP
    When taking office Bercow said 'My commitment to this House is to be completely impartial as between members of one political party and another.' He has clearly failed in that commitment (as indeed he has to others, such as transparency).
    His job is to help MPs do their jobs. Your suggestion that he has been partial between parties is impossible to sustain. You just really like policies for which there is nothing like a majority in Parliament and would like MPs not to be able to do their jobs in relation to those policies.
    You are a "Biased Tory" is the words you are looking for Alistair. He seems incapable of separating party from what is right.
    Oh, look - somebody just put a turnip in the meter!
    :D good one
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    If the political element (trust, faith in institutions) is more important than the economic element (job losses, greater taxation)...

    ...then why did Leave put an economic argument on the side of the bus?

    I know you think this is a good article, but it just repeats the difference for the nth time. For Leavers the economic downside of Leave was unimportant, as Goodwin's three tribes could either easily afford it or weren't going to get any poorer. For Remainers the economic downside of Leave was important, mostly (but not only) because they were the ones who would bear the cost. In both cases the calculus is different.

    The failure of Leavers to understand this (the smarter ones understand it fully but work around it) is one of the reasons for this political mess.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    I am not sure Boris will fail Monday. Libdems and SNP and Corbyn and his momentum fan base around him all want an election. My doubters are the hammonds, guakes, rudds who will be voting for their extinction and lost influence on brexit.

    It good though someone understands Macron, and that he will stand against 26 leaders and the commission. Up to the last deadline he said non, inexplicably on day then wanted longer deadline than the rest. He might turn out to be unreliable. At least we could rely on de Gaulle to say no.

    Reminds me Americans interviewing de Gaulle s widow about what she most misses and she said a penis.

    Turns out she was trying to say happiness in a foreign language.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    May made two big mistakes in the election campaign:

    1. The decision to prattle on about policies that were unpopular with key voters;

    2. The decision to skip the debates.

    I think she would acknowledge the latter if pushed. Even if she’d have come out of it badly (its Theresa May, so I don’t think we could have expected a charismatic tour de force) I don’t think it would have done anything near the damage that the “frit” narrative did to her.

    I think if she’d managed to avoid both of those pitfalls we could be looking at a very different result right now. Maybe not a sizeable Tory majority but perhaps something like a majority of 30-40. Might not have been enough to see her deal through at the start but would probably have been enough to carry it when it came to the crunch. We could have Brexited and could be looking at another 3 years of PM May at this point.
    These were the biggest public-facing mistakes for sure, but I think they were really symptoms of deeper failings: a Nixon-like paranoia, utter lack of understanding of leadership, and a political tin ear
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I see the owners of the Daily Telegraph are putting the organisation up for sale according to the BBC. Maybe they have decided they can do no more damage to the country after having deminished the DT from respected Broadsheet to Brexit supporting/BJ propoganda unit? I hope whoever buys it, returns it to a more sustainable path.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    malcolmg said:

    TudorRose said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    I don't think the EU will risk embroiling themselves in our politics (they would be mad to do so) and so I don't expect conditions (such as a GE) to be given. However a delay until January does not give enough time for a 2nd referendum and so the implication will be fairly clear.

    What puzzles me is the timing of the announcement; we now have a catch 22 situation - Corbyn won't go for a GE until the EU make a decision and the EU won't make a decision until they see what happens about a GE.
    Only way it will ever happen is if EU force the issue , our wobbly jellies will defer until forced.
    Yes; I agree with this.
  • Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2019

    I see the owners of the Daily Telegraph are putting the organisation up for sale according to the BBC. Maybe they have decided they can do no more damage to the country after having deminished the DT from respected Broadsheet to Brexit supporting/BJ propoganda unit? I hope whoever buys it, returns it to a more sustainable path.

    Who the hell would want to buy the Daily Boris-Graph. It is a crap newspaper these days and their website, Jesus Christ, it is absolutely horrible.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    egg said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    I am not sure Boris will fail Monday. Libdems and SNP and Corbyn and his momentum fan base around him all want an election. My doubters are the hammonds, guakes, rudds who will be voting for their extinction and lost influence on brexit.

    It good though someone understands Macron, and that he will stand against 26 leaders and the commission. Up to the last deadline he said non, inexplicably on day then wanted longer deadline than the rest. He might turn out to be unreliable. At least we could rely on de Gaulle to say no.

    Reminds me Americans interviewing de Gaulle s widow about what she most misses and she said a penis.

    Turns out she was trying to say happiness in a foreign language.
    Labour will not vote for an election in the absence of a decision from the EU. On that they’ve been quite clear. To be honest I do not have the same level of confidence as you that Corbyn wants an election - he has to say he does, certainly, but I sense deep, deep unease. If he’d wanted it he would have gone for it after the Benn Act passed.
  • I see the owners of the Daily Telegraph are putting the organisation up for sale according to the BBC. Maybe they have decided they can do no more damage to the country after having deminished the DT from respected Broadsheet to Brexit supporting/BJ propoganda unit? I hope whoever buys it, returns it to a more sustainable path.

    +1
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,573
    edited October 2019
    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
    I agree with all that. So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    May made two big mistakes in the election campaign:

    1. The decision to prattle on about policies that were unpopular with key voters;

    2. The decision to skip the debates.

    I think she would acknowledge the latter if pushed. Even if she’d have come out of it badly (its Theresa May, so I don’t think we could have expected a charismatic tour de force) I don’t think it would have done anything near the damage that the “frit” narrative did to her.

    I think if she’d managed to avoid both of those pitfalls we could be looking at a very different result right now. Maybe not a sizeable Tory majority but perhaps something like a majority of 30-40. Might not have been enough to see her deal through at the start but would probably have been enough to carry it when it came to the crunch. We could have Brexited and could be looking at another 3 years of PM May at this point.
    The U-turn on the dementia tax and skipping debates undermined the whole premise of Lynton Crosby's campaign: a presidential campaign around a strong and stable Theresa May. Both strength and stability went out the window at the start, except as a slogan.
  • nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    The one proceeds from the other.

    I think Theresa May was a dutiful individual who tried her best to do good for her country and party, but she had considerable personality disadvantages (there are passages in "Fall Out" that give you pause) that made her the wrong person for the job.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    I recall the last Bassetlaw by election held at the end of October 1968 following the death of Frederick Bellenger who had held the seat for Labour since before World War 2. Joe Ashton retained it with a majority of 740 over the Tory Jim Lester. He was defending a majority of over 10,000 , but the 10.8% swing against Labour was seen as mildly encouraging compared with the 18% - 21.5% suffered in March that year. Bassetlaw last elected a Tory MP in 1924. Malcolm Macdonald - son of Ramsay - was National Labour MP here 1931 - 1935.
    Very surprised to discover that Joe Ashton ceased to be an MP as long ago as 2001!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    Barnesian said:

    ...So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit...

    In the two extensions we have asked for, the EU have (or are rumoured to) give us less than we ask for. If a third is asked for, I assume the pattern will continue.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    edited October 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
    I agree with all that. So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit.
    I would expect they would not even entertain any further extensions and make that clear

    However, in a GE that achieves a remain alliance for a referendum I have no doubt at all that an extension would be granted

    And that is the missing piece in all of this for the peoples vote remain mps, the prize in a GE is a legitimate post GE referendum

    I am surprised they do not see it, yet !!!!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    A Prime Minister’s weaknesses seem to be known at the outset, and they are inevitably the final cause of their downfall, too.

    We knew May was inflexible, introverted, secretive, a control freak; we knew Cameron was facile, solipsistic, intellectually lazy; we knew Blair was narcissistic, glib, and unscrupulous.

    We know Boris’s character is worse - perhaps far worse - than any of the above, too. The only question is exactly how this plays out.
    Boris is authentically malign in way that May (gurning weirdo), Cameron (big shiny head but nothing else) and Blair (have you been mis-sold a war in Iraq?) never were. Brexit and its associated bollocks are irrelevant compared to the moral, political and social necessity of removing him from office by any means.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Roger said:

    Chacun a son gout as they say in Hartlepool.

    Chav un a son gout.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,573

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    That I think is fair comment.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    The key for tories is the 24-35 year old demographic, they should forgive some of their loans.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    On a UNS basis, this poll sees 49 Tory gains from Labour offset by 12 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP - leaving the Tories on 347 - a majority of 44. Labour could expect circa 205 with the LDs on 25.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nunuone said:

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.

    The policy was well though out and fair when looked at dispassionately.

    Of course Labour were always going to make whatever political capital they could out of dressing it up as something it wasn't.

    The shame is that in an era when we desperately need deep reform of our social care system there is not a chance any party will go near the subject with anything other than superficial soundbites.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    Roger said:

    Chacun a son gout as they say in Hartlepool.

    Le sange est sur le gibbet.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    The one proceeds from the other.

    I think Theresa May was a dutiful individual who tried her best to do good for her country and party, but she had considerable personality disadvantages (there are passages in "Fall Out" that give you pause) that made her the wrong person for the job.
    It is funny how we always look for people's flaws. She personally is probably the cleanest person to have done the job in recent times. No sleaze or family sleaze (Thatcher's son for instance rightly or wrongly caused problems politically)attributed to her in anyway or political sleaze i.e. donations from dodgy people. I never thought TM was up to the job as PM and could not understand how she was even considered as a potential leader. I think on reflection the public sometimes want the opposite of the person in power simply because they do not like the incumbent. I am in the position of disapproving of TM & BJ! I am not a happy bunny! :wink:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    For what it's worth, I suspect that much of the Brexit or Anti- Corbyn factor is already in the 2017 result here when Labour seriously underperformed its national result. Not sure there is much scope for a futher significant shift.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    I hope the LibDems stand back in Bassetlaw. They don't have a hope. It's a waste of effort and money. It might split the Remain vote and let the Tories through. It would be a rehearsal for a more widespread similar strategy in the GE.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Barnesian said:


    I agree with all that. So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit.

    And this is the point.

    Any extension will be viewed as additional time to avoid making a decision.

    It is not unreasonable for the EU to be asking parliament to make a choice.

    1. Pass the treaty

    2. Call a GE

    Theoretically R2 and Revoke are still options but I don't see anything like a majority for either of these options above 1 or 2.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    ...So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit...

    In the two extensions we have asked for, the EU have (or are rumoured to) give us less than we ask for. If a third is asked for, I assume the pattern will continue.

    You'd think they'd be learning by now!
  • viewcode said:

    If the political element (trust, faith in institutions) is more important than the economic element (job losses, greater taxation)...

    ...then why did Leave put an economic argument on the side of the bus?

    I know you think this is a good article, but it just repeats the difference for the nth time. For Leavers the economic downside of Leave was unimportant, as Goodwin's three tribes could either easily afford it or weren't going to get any poorer. For Remainers the economic downside of Leave was important, mostly (but not only) because they were the ones who would bear the cost. In both cases the calculus is different.

    The failure of Leavers to understand this (the smarter ones understand it fully but work around it) is one of the reasons for this political mess.
    Given the Remain's side economic argument was based on "we need more immigrants to keep wages down and house prices up" I would suggest its many Remainers who don't understand the economic driver for much of the Leave vote.

    On a wider level its an example of different worlds in the same country.

    When the metropolitan Remainer bewails falling house prices the provincial Leaver just sees unaffordable values, while also noting that their value of their house is still crawling upwards.

    When the metropolitan Remainer worries about the threat to the City the provincial Leaver thinks of bonus stuffed bankers being bailed out, while also noting that their local branches have been shutting down for a decade.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    Barnesian said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
    I agree with all that. So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit.
    I would expect they would not even entertain any further extensions and make that clear

    However, in a GE that achieves a remain alliance for a referendum I have no doubt at all that an extension would be granted

    And that is the missing piece in all of this for the peoples vote remain mps, the prize in a GE is a legitimate post GE referendum

    I am surprised they do not see it, yet !!!!
    I'm sure they do see it. It's all a matter of timing. Let the shine come off Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161
    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    I hope the LibDems stand back in Bassetlaw. They don't have a hope. It's a waste of effort and money. It might split the Remain vote and let the Tories through. It would be a rehearsal for a more widespread similar strategy in the GE.
    And the best way to remain is to elect a Labour MP?

    Hmmm.
  • viewcode said:

    If the political element (trust, faith in institutions) is more important than the economic element (job losses, greater taxation)...

    ...then why did Leave put an economic argument on the side of the bus?

    I know you think this is a good article, but it just repeats the difference for the nth time. For Leavers the economic downside of Leave was unimportant, as Goodwin's three tribes could either easily afford it or weren't going to get any poorer. For Remainers the economic downside of Leave was important, mostly (but not only) because they were the ones who would bear the cost. In both cases the calculus is different.

    The failure of Leavers to understand this (the smarter ones understand it fully but work around it) is one of the reasons for this political mess.
    Given the Remain's side economic argument was based on "we need more immigrants to keep wages down and house prices up" I would suggest its many Remainers who don't understand the economic driver for much of the Leave vote.

    On a wider level its an example of different worlds in the same country.

    When the metropolitan Remainer bewails falling house prices the provincial Leaver just sees unaffordable values, while also noting that their value of their house is still crawling upwards.

    When the metropolitan Remainer worries about the threat to the City the provincial Leaver thinks of bonus stuffed bankers being bailed out, while also noting that their local branches have been shutting down for a decade.
    There are plenty of young metropolitan remainers cheering low prices and plenty of older subarban and rural leavers cheering the property booms.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    I hope the LibDems stand back in Bassetlaw. They don't have a hope. It's a waste of effort and money. It might split the Remain vote and let the Tories through. It would be a rehearsal for a more widespread similar strategy in the GE.
    And the best way to remain is to elect a Labour MP?

    Hmmm.
    Compared to a Tory MP, yes
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646

    viewcode said:

    If the political element (trust, faith in institutions) is more important than the economic element (job losses, greater taxation)...

    ...then why did Leave put an economic argument on the side of the bus?

    I know you think this is a good article, but it just repeats the difference for the nth time. For Leavers the economic downside of Leave was unimportant, as Goodwin's three tribes could either easily afford it or weren't going to get any poorer. For Remainers the economic downside of Leave was important, mostly (but not only) because they were the ones who would bear the cost. In both cases the calculus is different.

    The failure of Leavers to understand this (the smarter ones understand it fully but work around it) is one of the reasons for this political mess.
    Given the Remain's side economic argument was based on "we need more immigrants to keep wages down and house prices up" I would suggest its many Remainers who don't understand the economic driver for much of the Leave vote.

    On a wider level its an example of different worlds in the same country.

    When the metropolitan Remainer bewails falling house prices the provincial Leaver just sees unaffordable values, while also noting that their value of their house is still crawling upwards.

    When the metropolitan Remainer worries about the threat to the City the provincial Leaver thinks of bonus stuffed bankers being bailed out, while also noting that their local branches have been shutting down for a decade.
    Not all Remainers are metropolitan, and not all Leavers are provincial. But if you meant "urban" and "rural" then you are right.
  • nunuone said:

    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    The key for tories is the 24-35 year old demographic, they should forgive some of their loans.
    The ONS has given the government £10bn per year to reduce student debt.

    But given how in denial the Conservatives have been about it I wouldn't be surprised if they did nothing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678

    viewcode said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    The one proceeds from the other.

    I think Theresa May was a dutiful individual who tried her best to do good for her country and party, but she had considerable personality disadvantages (there are passages in "Fall Out" that give you pause) that made her the wrong person for the job.
    It is funny how we always look for people's flaws. She personally is probably the cleanest person to have done the job in recent times. No sleaze or family sleaze (Thatcher's son for instance rightly or wrongly caused problems politically)attributed to her in anyway or political sleaze i.e. donations from dodgy people. I never thought TM was up to the job as PM and could not understand how she was even considered as a potential leader. I think on reflection the public sometimes want the opposite of the person in power simply because they do not like the incumbent. I am in the position of disapproving of TM & BJ! I am not a happy bunny! :wink:
    May came into office with a very small following within the party and she had a lot of people to convince. Even Brown did not have that problem when he became PM, and Cameron rode in on a lot of goodwill because the Tories were desperate for an electable leader at that point.

    The way she could have changed all that would have been winning a GE. At that point she would have been able to start to recast the party in her image. Politics is a fickle game and parties like winners.

    Of course, she failed at the election and as a result the mistrust only deepened.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    I hope the LibDems stand back in Bassetlaw. They don't have a hope. It's a waste of effort and money. It might split the Remain vote and let the Tories through. It would be a rehearsal for a more widespread similar strategy in the GE.
    And the best way to remain is to elect a Labour MP?

    Hmmm.
    In Bassetlaw yes. Because the only alternative is a Tory, and that certainly isn't the best way to remain.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    68.3% Leave. By-election so no advantage to Labour of election broadcasting rules. Ructions within the local party over candidate selection.

    Looks like a perfect storm for Labour to lose this one.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    viewcode said:

    Roger said:

    Chacun a son gout as they say in Hartlepool.

    Le sange est sur le gibbet.

    Thanks for the laugh, Eddie.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    I recall the last Bassetlaw by election held at the end of October 1968 following the death of Frederick Bellenger who had held the seat for Labour since before World War 2. Joe Ashton retained it with a majority of 740 over the Tory Jim Lester. He was defending a majority of over 10,000 , but the 10.8% swing against Labour was seen as mildly encouraging compared with the 18% - 21.5% suffered in March that year. Bassetlaw last elected a Tory MP in 1924. Malcolm Macdonald - son of Ramsay - was National Labour MP here 1931 - 1935.
    Very surprised to discover that Joe Ashton ceased to be an MP as long ago as 2001!

    I remember the Ashton/Northampton connection! I think after that stepping down was the only logical thing to do. Had he stood again he would still have won but maybe once your reputation has been exposed to chorosive allegations it is better to stand aside with grace...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    ...So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit...

    In the two extensions we have asked for, the EU have (or are rumoured to) give us less than we ask for. If a third is asked for, I assume the pattern will continue.

    With the second extension Theresa May asked for 30 June but had to accept 31 October, so it seems like they gave us more than we asked for.
  • nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    Was there any research on how many votes were influenced by fox hunting ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
    Free money available on the No Deal in 2019 markets. I think.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    68.3% Leave. By-election so no advantage to Labour of election broadcasting rules. Ructions within the local party over candidate selection.

    Looks like a perfect storm for Labour to lose this one.

    As perfect a storm as Peterborough?
  • 68.3% Leave. By-election so no advantage to Labour of election broadcasting rules. Ructions within the local party over candidate selection.

    Looks like a perfect storm for Labour to lose this one.

    Yet for some reason Labour did very well in the local elections in Bassetlaw.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    Today's Yougov shows a 13% Tory lead - compared with the 24% they enjoyed when May called the election in May 2017.
  • Personally i'm sick of weak, self centred careerists (oops is there anyone left) - just get Boris to rule out No Deal, call Corbyn's bluff and go for the GE.
    Nobody wants it (save for the nutters) and surely for Boris this means a few more votes at the ballot boxes.
    As David Lloyd would say "Get on with the game...... "
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    viewcode said:

    Roger said:

    Chacun a son gout as they say in Hartlepool.

    Le sange est sur le gibbet.

    Le secret de la liberté est d'éclairer les hommes, comme celui de la tyrannie est de les retenir dans l'ignorance.

    I think Robespierre was thinking of Hartlepool when he wrote that.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    justin124 said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    Today's Yougov shows a 13% Tory lead - compared with the 24% they enjoyed when May called the election in May 2017.
    We are not in 2017 any longer. The past is a different country, they did things differently there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    edited October 2019
    sirclive said:

    Personally i'm sick of weak, self centred careerists (oops is there anyone left) - just get Boris to rule out No Deal, call Corbyn's bluff and go for the GE.
    Nobody wants it (save for the nutters) and surely for Boris this means a few more votes at the ballot boxes.
    As David Lloyd would say "Get on with the game...... "

    How does Boris rule out No Deal - without then being accused by the usual suspects of being a liar???

    If we get into the FTA negotiations and the EU play ultra-hardball - and yet we cannot walk away. How does that work? No-one has given me an answer on this.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If the political element (trust, faith in institutions) is more important than the economic element (job losses, greater taxation)...

    ...then why did Leave put an economic argument on the side of the bus?

    I know you think this is a good article, but it just repeats the difference for the nth time. For Leavers the economic downside of Leave was unimportant, as Goodwin's three tribes could either easily afford it or weren't going to get any poorer. For Remainers the economic downside of Leave was important, mostly (but not only) because they were the ones who would bear the cost. In both cases the calculus is different.

    The failure of Leavers to understand this (the smarter ones understand it fully but work around it) is one of the reasons for this political mess.
    Given the Remain's side economic argument was based on "we need more immigrants to keep wages down and house prices up" I would suggest its many Remainers who don't understand the economic driver for much of the Leave vote.

    On a wider level its an example of different worlds in the same country.

    When the metropolitan Remainer bewails falling house prices the provincial Leaver just sees unaffordable values, while also noting that their value of their house is still crawling upwards.

    When the metropolitan Remainer worries about the threat to the City the provincial Leaver thinks of bonus stuffed bankers being bailed out, while also noting that their local branches have been shutting down for a decade.
    Not all Remainers are metropolitan, and not all Leavers are provincial. But if you meant "urban" and "rural" then you are right.
    Even in the most Leave areas a quarter voted Remain and vice versa.

    But even an urban / rural split isn't totally accurate - there were posho rural areas which voted Remain and big industrial towns which voted Leave.

    So it can be easier to stick to stereotypical descriptions such as metropolitan provincial.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161
    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    I'm sure Cummings will come up with something to get it back. Maybe propose disconnecting the water supply to London if Labour don't vote for GE. Something sensible like that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    That was the best england performance i have ever watched.

    I think this is true, which is galling if you grew up rather sniffy and dismissive of them.

    We were just outclassed.

    (Goes off to cry in a corner).
    Fair play - Chwarae teg
    I will be loudly supporting your boys tomorrow, Big G.
    Diolch yn fawr
    We'll have none of that smut on here, thank you very much!
    Do you even know what it means !!!!!!
    No idea, but it sounds dodgy....
    An odd sentiment from someone calling themselves Tudor....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705

    sirclive said:

    Personally i'm sick of weak, self centred careerists (oops is there anyone left) - just get Boris to rule out No Deal, call Corbyn's bluff and go for the GE.
    Nobody wants it (save for the nutters) and surely for Boris this means a few more votes at the ballot boxes.
    As David Lloyd would say "Get on with the game...... "

    How does Boris rule out No Deal - without then being accused by the usual suspects of being a liar???
    To be fair - there's no doubt he's a liar, and an absolutely shameless one at that.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    I'm sure Cummings will come up with something to get it back. Maybe propose disconnecting the water supply to London if Labour don't vote for GE. Something sensible like that.
    Parliament will vote for an election on Tuesday
    Wait and see.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    68.3% Leave. By-election so no advantage to Labour of election broadcasting rules. Ructions within the local party over candidate selection.

    Looks like a perfect storm for Labour to lose this one.

    As perfect a storm as Peterborough?
    Peterborough was less strongly Leave (62.7%) and the Brexit Party split the vote. Johnson is still in the ascendancy. I don't think there were local divisions over the candidate in Peterborough.

    It looks a lot more like Copeland than Peterborough.
  • nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    What would be the consequences of those 7% transferring to state schools without any extra funding for those schools ?

    Plus together with things such as Labour's 'Garden Tax' it looks like an assault on nice middle class lifestyles.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
    Hear, hear.

    If there was a GE tomorrow I'd vote LD beacuse of concerns about Labour's Brexit ambiguity, anti-semitism and Corbyn's leadership, but their schools policy is a big plus as far as I am concerned.

    If Corbyn was replaced by someone more sensible I could be swayed back by the scools and other social policies.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    FT have a leak about back room plans to water down workers rights that’s at odds with government promises. Kwasi has been out rubbishing this leak. Every time he has to rubbish things though he doesn’t sound convincing doing it does he?

    You say momentum against Boris Deal but how are the 19 Labour Boris backers and various rebels Tories who backed Boris on 2ndreading going to get out of 3rd reading? Looking closely at what they have been saying, the qualifiers that come after the phrase “yes I will vote for it” I detect two main ones.

    1. Financial Impact Statements. Bigging up the negative in economic impacts statements and relating it to bad for their constituents.
    2. NI. Clarke was saying its awful for NI and unionists, we can back it only after we change the new backstop wasn’t he?

    And a couple more that may play

    3. Kinnock seemed to be heading aboard last week but is definitely against this week with “he couldn’t vote for this one which “would make a bonfire of workers rights, environmental standards and consumer protection”.” If others wanted to back out by bigging up such examples they easily could couldn’t they? If FT leak is genuine it’s sure to be waved in commons.
    4. Labour leadership and Labour whipping have been a bit softly softly for the less meaningful second reading maybe planning a tougher line when it comes to more meaningful voting? Labour leadership are being canny with their wording around this, whilst being as softly softly and supportive of their rebels as possible, I suspect a toughening of the line for a meaningful 3rd reading. “I think most of those MPs were making clear their support for a second reading was in order to try and make changes to the proposals to bring them into line with the kind of Brexit deal we have been talking about. The chief whip has made clear these things will be taken into account as a whole once the process is finished.” said corbyn.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    sirclive said:

    Personally i'm sick of weak, self centred careerists (oops is there anyone left) - just get Boris to rule out No Deal, call Corbyn's bluff and go for the GE.
    Nobody wants it (save for the nutters) and surely for Boris this means a few more votes at the ballot boxes.
    As David Lloyd would say "Get on with the game...... "

    How does Boris rule out No Deal - without then being accused by the usual suspects of being a liar???

    If we get into the FTA negotiations and the EU play ultra-hardball - and yet we cannot walk away. How does that work? No-one has given me an answer on this.
    Even his biggest cheer leader , like you , would have to admit he has been a liar on occasions.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
    Hmm. When you say you had to endure a comprehensive, was it the comprehensive aspect per se that you objected to, or something that could have been remedied by better resources within a non-selective system?
  • nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
    We could ban private cars and housing as well.

    Once the rich start having to live on council estates and use public transport they'll have an incentive to see they improve.

    And why should anyone have a private pension either ?

    For that matter how about getting rid of private sector jobs altogether ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    68.3% Leave. By-election so no advantage to Labour of election broadcasting rules. Ructions within the local party over candidate selection.

    Looks like a perfect storm for Labour to lose this one.

    Yet for some reason Labour did very well in the local elections in Bassetlaw.
    Shame that the party hierarchy blocked the leader of Bassetlaw District Council from being on the candidate shortlist then.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    Agreed. Last weekend was peak Brexit. Johnson has now lost the initiative and the only way he can get it back is by winning a clear majority at an election. But it is by no means clear that he can do that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    What would be the consequences of those 7% transferring to state schools without any extra funding for those schools ?

    Plus together with things such as Labour's 'Garden Tax' it looks like an assault on nice middle class lifestyles.
    I've got news for you: the middle classes don't send their kids to private schools, only the richest 7% can afford to do that. In my book the richest 7% do not constitute the 'middle'.

    Reminds me of Rachel Johnson's ridiculous claim to be 'middle class' in an otherwise polished and witty appearance by her on last week's HIGNFY :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    Agreed. Last weekend was peak Brexit. Johnson has now lost the initiative and the only way he can get it back is by winning a clear majority at an election. But it is by no means clear that he can do that.
    Agreed. It's all downhill from here for him imo, happily.

    Which reminds me, when do we expect to hear further news about the Arcuri investigations? The timing could be interesting!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    I doubt that many would believe him. He is simply not trusted.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    I doubt that many would believe him. He is simply not trusted.
    Corbyn is? lol
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544

    sirclive said:

    Personally i'm sick of weak, self centred careerists (oops is there anyone left) - just get Boris to rule out No Deal, call Corbyn's bluff and go for the GE.
    Nobody wants it (save for the nutters) and surely for Boris this means a few more votes at the ballot boxes.
    As David Lloyd would say "Get on with the game...... "

    How does Boris rule out No Deal - without then being accused by the usual suspects of being a liar???

    If we get into the FTA negotiations and the EU play ultra-hardball - and yet we cannot walk away. How does that work? No-one has given me an answer on this.
    Where was that in the Leave.EU and Vote Leave prospectuses?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nunuone said:

    justin124 said:

    It feels like momentum is drifting away from Boris and/or his Deal.

    That is my sense too. His momentum peaked over a week ago.
    I'm sure Cummings will come up with something to get it back. Maybe propose disconnecting the water supply to London if Labour don't vote for GE. Something sensible like that.
    Parliament will vote for an election on Tuesday
    Wait and see.
    I am also piling my money on 2019 election. Reading the Opposition leaders faces they are all going for it imo.

    I think Labour are going to end up winning it. T say Boris is going to win next GE is like saying Churchill is going to win in 1945, Boris will emulate Churchill by losing for exactly the same reason. This isn’t a government that’s only been in power a few months but nearly a decade, during this time just like 80 years ago they have got the country in trouble and the voters are going to punish them at next polls because of it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    I doubt that many would believe him. He is simply not trusted.
    Corbyn is? lol
    I think Boris beats Jezza hands down on the lying front tbf.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    edited October 2019

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    What would be the consequences of those 7% transferring to state schools without any extra funding for those schools ?

    Plus together with things such as Labour's 'Garden Tax' it looks like an assault on nice middle class lifestyles.
    I've got news for you: the middle classes don't send their kids to private schools, only the richest 7% can afford to do that. In my book the richest 7% do not constitute the 'middle'.

    Reminds me of Rachel Johnson's ridiculous claim to be 'middle class' in an otherwise polished and witty appearance by her on last week's HIGNFY :smile:
    Those going to private school are often the kids of doctors, lawyers, bankers - stereotypical middle class professions.

    One of the oddities of the class system is that the middle class are in fact at the top baring a thin layer of cream/scum (delete as appropriate) at the very top.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Regarding an extension. It’s entirely possible that they could offer one but say it’s final . No more after that and if they make it just 3 months then that finishes off a second vote .

    I suppose the interesting aspect here is what would happen to the Lib Dem vote , as the only revoke party the message would be clear , they are your last chance to stop Brexit .

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
    We could ban private cars and housing as well.

    Once the rich start having to live on council estates and use public transport they'll have an incentive to see they improve.

    And why should anyone have a private pension either ?

    For that matter how about getting rid of private sector jobs altogether ?
    Some at the top of Labour probably think like that - well, for everyone other than themselves and their cronies

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Chris said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    Personally, I could not care less about Labour's school's policy. I had to go to a comprehensive and suffer it, so why should those from affluent backgrounds get a free pass? I never used to see it or feel it but the UK seems to have a financial division where the wealthy opt out of suboptimal services the rest of us have to endure. Something needs to change...
    Hmm. When you say you had to endure a comprehensive, was it the comprehensive aspect per se that you objected to, or something that could have been remedied by better resources within a non-selective system?
    I dont think it was a resource problem but the non-selective essence of the pupil pool. Physical violence by the less academic was a real problem! You used to live in fear of being attacked whether it was walking to and from school, break time or even in classes. For instance I even chose to do home economics instead of woodwork or metalwork as I was frightened of the other male pupils! I do feel my secondary education held me back but that is life, instead of a red brick University I went to a new University. My life could have been on a better trajectory but ultimately die to health problems; it is irrelevant for me...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    Yes. If the Tories announced big changes on building houses and reducing student debt, genuinely moving the needle changes, they would reduce Corbyn's lead among the young substantially.
    I doubt that many would believe him. He is simply not trusted.
    Corbyn is? lol
    I think Boris beats Jezza hands down on the lying front tbf.
    Not sure about that.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    nico67 said:

    Regarding an extension. It’s entirely possible that they could offer one but say it’s final . No more after that and if they make it just 3 months then that finishes off a second vote .

    If there were a way of making everyone believe it was final, maybe.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Barnesian said:

    Roger said:

    How long does a Labour leadership contest need to last? That’s one of the metrics we need to start thinking about.

    Agreed. That any Labour supporter can want to go into an election with someone lagging 15 points in the polls either can't read or deliberately wants to lose. Corbyn must resign in the very near future or try to delay the election until 2022 when old age might intervene and resignation might be forced on him
    There may not be a choice by this time next week

    I expect Boris to fail with his call for a GE on monday

    I expect the EU to lose patience with the HOC and on tuesday give the choice of passing the deal (actually an international treaty) by the 15th November or extend to 31st January to hold a GE, take it or leave it

    And it will be Macron, EU's most powerful leader, calling the shots. He wants this over as well as the EU and see the UK out so he and the EU can move on
    Against that view (valid though it is), the EU also don’t apparently want No Deal (until mid-March I thought they wouldn’t be so bothered), and also don’t want to be seen as driving the British decision (or “interfering”).

    My money’s on “Jan 31 or sooner if you sort yourselves out” - about as neutral as they can be.
    I have no doubt the 31st January will be offered as it was asked for under the Benn act and the EU will respect that

    However, I also believe they will offer to the 15th November to pass their treaty but of course it could not be amended to a customs union or referendum as Boris would pull it

    I also agree it is unlikely, though not impossible, the 31st January extension would be granted specfically for a GE, but it would defacto be the same
    I agree with all that. So what will be the date of the next extension, after 31st January? It would be better for the EU to give a year or two extension if they don't want to continually sidetracked by Brexit.
    I would expect they would not even entertain any further extensions and make that clear

    However, in a GE that achieves a remain alliance for a referendum I have no doubt at all that an extension would be granted

    And that is the missing piece in all of this for the peoples vote remain mps, the prize in a GE is a legitimate post GE referendum

    I am surprised they do not see it, yet !!!!
    If an election were to be called in mid-January with Polling Day in late February, I suspect a further extension would be granted to - say - 31st March.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    nunuone said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    Nope.

    It was the disastrous social care policy wot lost it.
    And student debt.

    Plus unaffordable housing.
    and fox hunting. I suspect Labour's schools policy will be their fox hunting. Popular with the choir but a vote-repellant for many.
    ... in your bubble. What proportion of the 7% who send their children to private schools would have voted Labour but for this policy? Not many.
    What would be the consequences of those 7% transferring to state schools without any extra funding for those schools ?

    Plus together with things such as Labour's 'Garden Tax' it looks like an assault on nice middle class lifestyles.
    I've got news for you: the middle classes don't send their kids to private schools, only the richest 7% can afford to do that. In my book the richest 7% do not constitute the 'middle'.

    Reminds me of Rachel Johnson's ridiculous claim to be 'middle class' in an otherwise polished and witty appearance by her on last week's HIGNFY :smile:
    In Edinburgh something like 20% of kids go to private schools. It's somewhat unlikely that they are all in the top 7%. I have had kids at a private school in Dundee now for the best part of 20 years (the end is in sight, thank the Lord) . Over that time there has been a real change in the make up of the school from a large domination of those with inherited wealth to many, many more middle class professionals such as teachers. The kids of NHS Doctors now probably form the largest single segment, well paid no doubt but probably only in the top 7% if on enhanced payments.

    The parents of those attending the school now are making real sacrifices to have their kids there. They are not statistically in the middle of the earnings bracket but they are not in the elite either.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Regarding an extension. It’s entirely possible that they could offer one but say it’s final . No more after that and if they make it just 3 months then that finishes off a second vote .

    I suppose the interesting aspect here is what would happen to the Lib Dem vote , as the only revoke party the message would be clear , they are your last chance to stop Brexit .

    I think it's been said before that No Deal would impact the UK much more than the EU but within the EU Ireland would probably be impacted more severely even than Britain.

    I therefore find it extremely unlikely that the EU would ever choose No Deal ahead of continued extensions; they would not throw one of their own to the dogs.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    I don't see a Labour Hold here.

    The candidate shortlist includes a pair of refugees from Ashfield, and a previous losing candidate from somewhere in Leicestershire.

    One of the Ashfield two - apparently the favourite - describes himself as "Deputy Leader of the Labour Group" on Ashfield Council, when there are exactly two Labour Councillors on the Council.

    He is also the chap who appeared in the Daily Mail next to Ed Milliband wearing a "dance on Thatcher's Grave" teeshirt.

    Will that play well in Bassetlaw?

    Bassetlaw is exactly the sort of constituency the Tories need to be challenging in to get a majority government. Labour leave, with a resurgent Lib Dem vote splitting the remain alliance.

    I actually think the Tories stand to do well in such seats. If they can’t do well here they’re going to have a disasterous election all in all, as they won’t be able to mitigate the potential damage the LDs could deal in the south and the SNP challenge in Scotland.
    I hope the LibDems stand back in Bassetlaw. They don't have a hope. It's a waste of effort and money. It might split the Remain vote and let the Tories through. It would be a rehearsal for a more widespread similar strategy in the GE.
    The Lib Dems are already in full-on GE campaigning mode. We have received three LD leaflets in recent weeks, even though our (Conservative-held) constituency could be most charitably described as a "stretch target" for the LDs. Bassetlaw would be a distraction from their wider campaign; I think they will want to make a respectable showing but no more than that.

    However, even though I expect the Conservatives to win Bassetlaw at a canter, I suspect the result may flatter to deceive. There are not as many seats like that as Dominic Cummings appears to think there are.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Dura_Ace said:

    Astonishing revelation in a new biography:

    "Theresa May was a 'terrible campaigner' whose 'inflexible and introverted character' caused the Tories to lose their majority at the 2017 election, a new biography claims"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7615571/Theresa-leader-riddled-anxiety-new-biography-claims.html

    A Prime Minister’s weaknesses seem to be known at the outset, and they are inevitably the final cause of their downfall, too.

    We knew May was inflexible, introverted, secretive, a control freak; we knew Cameron was facile, solipsistic, intellectually lazy; we knew Blair was narcissistic, glib, and unscrupulous.

    We know Boris’s character is worse - perhaps far worse - than any of the above, too. The only question is exactly how this plays out.
    Boris is authentically malign in way that May (gurning weirdo), Cameron (big shiny head but nothing else) and Blair (have you been mis-sold a war in Iraq?) never were. Brexit and its associated bollocks are irrelevant compared to the moral, political and social necessity of removing him from office by any means.
    +1
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    On topic this would be a really interesting by election and it is certainly the sort of seat the Tories would need to win to have a majority. Its in a part of the country where I expect them to do well offsetting small losses elsewhere. I very much hope it doesn't come to pass and the curtain comes down on this embarrassment of a Parliament but it would certainly be entertaining if it did.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    In Edinburgh something like 20% of kids go to private schools. It's somewhat unlikely that they are all in the top 7%. I have had kids at a private school in Dundee now for the best part of 20 years (the end is in sight, thank the Lord) . Over that time there has been a real change in the make up of the school from a large domination of those with inherited wealth to many, many more middle class professionals such as teachers. The kids of NHS Doctors now probably form the largest single segment, well paid no doubt but probably only in the top 7% if on enhanced payments.

    The parents of those attending the school now are making real sacrifices to have their kids there. They are not statistically in the middle of the earnings bracket but they are not in the elite either.

    Exactly. I pointed out a few weeks ago on here that a surprising number of state school teachers send their kids to private schools (including, I recently learned, the headteacher of the state primary where we're considering sending Capitano Junior). Labour's policy to improve state school education by abolishing private schools is a complete misfire.
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