Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
The difference is that (1) Boris has an actual personality; (2) he will attack Corbyn mercilessly; (3) he will put forward simple, popular policies and not kick his own voters in the teeth.
In short, he is an actual populist in a populist age - exactly what we need to win. If he'd been running the GE2017 campaign, the Tories would have gotten their anticipated majority.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
"The future is ours to make".
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Johnson's character? What age are you living in? Trump's character is infinitetly worse than Boris', and yet he won easily. Very few people vote based on some bizarre set of Puritan ethics.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Immediately post the EU decision another FFPA vote
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
May’s clearly the biggest loser in all this. Boris took up the EUs offer to throw DUP under bus, May rejected it. 19 Labour MPs and all the ERG. What was she thinking?
The sort of polling that explains why Johnson is desperate to have an election this year and why Corbyn is unlikely to call one.
As the Labour Party finds ever more feeble reasons to prevent one, that gap is just going to increase.
Labour's life force is draining.
I said this at the time they blocked the first attempt: it’s not a good look to say you don’t want people to have a say in how the country is run. Yes, people do get annoyed about having to go and vote, especially in an early election, but standing there and actively preventing them from doing so doesn’t particularly enamour them to you either - it makes you look like you (quite rightly IMHO) are afraid of what they’ll say.
So what you're saying is the best hope for those of us who aren't Conservatives is to take our lumps (and the inevitable gloating) and watch Johnson win a huge majority and then wait for him to screw things up over the next decade and perhaps we might have a chance in 2029?
Seriously?
Your Plan B is? That Johnson majority just gets bigger as you formulate one.
Something that doesn’t exist can’t grow. He doesn’t have a majority and we don’t want to give him one. That’s the whole point. We know the Tories are just goading. “The longer you delay it the worse it will be! Let us beat you now or we’ll thrash you later! It’s for your own good!”. Seriously? if it were inevitable that the longer the delay the bigger the bigger the majority for your party, you would want a delay. You don’t. Taking electoral advice from your opponent is not a great idea.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Cheating, abandonment of children, living with someone young enough to be his daughter.
And he is a compulsive liar - he seems unable to stop himself, as when he turned round and told a TV camera that there were no media in the room or that he had sent a photocopy of the Benn Act to Brussels when the document actually sent was in a different font and type size. If he lies about trivial issues such as this can anyone trust anything he says?
You may be right but how is this damaging him.
You would think so but there is no evidence so far, indeed he seems to be advancing in the polls
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Serial adulterer. Shacking up with the mistress while the wife’s having cancer treatment. That kind of thing.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Cheating, abandonment of children, living with someone young enough to be his daughter.
And he is a compulsive liar - he seems unable to stop himself, as when he turned round and told a TV camera that there were no media in the room or that he had sent a photocopy of the Benn Act to Brussels when the document actually sent was in a different font and type size. If he lies about trivial issues such as this can anyone trust anything he says?
You may be right but how is this damaging him.
You would think so but there is no evidence so far, indeed he seems to be advancing in the polls
The sort of polling that explains why Johnson is desperate to have an election this year and why Corbyn is unlikely to call one.
As the Labour Party finds ever more feeble reasons to prevent one, that gap is just going to increase.
Labour's life force is draining.
I said this at the time they blocked the first attempt: it’s not a good look to say you don’t want people to have a say in how the country is run. Yes, people do get annoyed about having to go and vote, especially in an early election, but standing there and actively preventing them from doing so doesn’t particularly enamour them to you either - it makes you look like you (quite rightly IMHO) are afraid of what they’ll say.
So what you're saying is the best hope for those of us who aren't Conservatives is to take our lumps (and the inevitable gloating) and watch Johnson win a huge majority and then wait for him to screw things up over the next decade and perhaps we might have a chance in 2029?
Seriously?
Your Plan B is? That Johnson majority just gets bigger as you formulate one.
Something that doesn’t exist can’t grow. He doesn’t have a majority and we don’t want to give him one. That’s the whole point. We know the Tories are just goading. “The longer you delay it the worse it will be! Let us beat you now or we’ll thrash you later! It’s for your own good!”. Seriously? if it were inevitable that the longer the delay the bigger the bigger the majority for your party, you would want a delay. You don’t. Taking electoral advice from your opponent is not a great idea.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
May’s clearly the biggest loser in all this. Boris took up the EUs offer to throw DUP under bus, May rejected it. 19 Labour MPs and all the ERG. What was she thinking?
What worked now may not have worked then - the passage of time is doing its part as well as Boris's turning on a sixpence.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Cheating, abandonment of children, living with someone young enough to be his daughter.
And he is a compulsive liar - he seems unable to stop himself, as when he turned round and told a TV camera that there were no media in the room or that he had sent a photocopy of the Benn Act to Brussels when the document actually sent was in a different font and type size. If he lies about trivial issues such as this can anyone trust anything he says?
You may be right but how is this damaging him.
You would think so but there is no evidence so far, indeed he seems to be advancing in the polls
Strange world
It’s the greater scrutiny he will get.
I doubt it. It is a known known now
And if that is all the opposition hasve got they will lose
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
Both of those slogans will be cannon fodder for the Tories...the punchlines barely need writing considering the situation with Brexit.
Labour should have 2 or 3 policy specific slogans relating to the NHS, crime and schools that can't be turned back on them.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
May’s clearly the biggest loser in all this. Boris took up the EUs offer to throw DUP under bus, May rejected it. 19 Labour MPs and all the ERG. What was she thinking?
Despite her faults, she has some principles that trump winning votes.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
"The future is ours to make".
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
The sort of polling that explains why Johnson is desperate to have an election this year and why Corbyn is unlikely to call one.
As the Labour Party finds ever more feeble reasons to prevent one, that gap is just going to increase.
Labour's life force is draining.
I said this at the time they blocked the first attempt: it’s not a good look to say you don’t want people to have a say in how the country is run. Yes, people do get annoyed about having to go and vote, especially in an early election, but standing there and actively preventing them from doing so doesn’t particularly enamour them to you either - it makes you look like you (quite rightly IMHO) are afraid of what they’ll say.
So what you're saying is the best hope for those of us who aren't Conservatives is to take our lumps (and the inevitable gloating) and watch Johnson win a huge majority and then wait for him to screw things up over the next decade and perhaps we might have a chance in 2029?
Seriously?
Your Plan B is? That Johnson majority just gets bigger as you formulate one.
Something that doesn’t exist can’t grow. He doesn’t have a majority and we don’t want to give him one. That’s the whole point. We know the Tories are just goading. “The longer you delay it the worse it will be! Let us beat you now or we’ll thrash you later! It’s for your own good!”. Seriously? if it were inevitable that the longer the delay the bigger the bigger the majority for your party, you would want a delay. You don’t. Taking electoral advice from your opponent is not a great idea.
So there is no Plan B then.
If I was in a position to know, and as a member of the LDs I clearly don’t, do you seriously think that I would just tell a Conservative Party activist on a public message board? At the moment Johnson is shackled and I hope he is kept that way.
I’ve been piling on December election all day, I still think it’s going through on Monday.
For goodness sake do not tell HYUFD otherwise it will be a whitewash with 150 majority
Calmer heads are needed and no counting chickens before they are hatched for me
Well to be fair to HY, under Boris the polls have herded into huge Tory leads and massive majority ininevitable Election which HY has been explaining for months.
Another way at looking at it Lab and Libdem certain to neatly share remain vote as libdems under Swinson not even fighting the Tories, from the big revoke policy (which surrendered votes and south west constituencies to Tories in order to win Labour metropolitan seats) to constant attacks on Labour for helping brexit happen.
There’s no way this can go wrong for HY and Boris now.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Cheating, abandonment of children, living with someone young enough to be his daughter.
And he is a compulsive liar - he seems unable to stop himself, as when he turned round and told a TV camera that there were no media in the room or that he had sent a photocopy of the Benn Act to Brussels when the document actually sent was in a different font and type size. If he lies about trivial issues such as this can anyone trust anything he says?
You may be right but how is this damaging him.
You would think so but there is no evidence so far, indeed he seems to be advancing in the polls
Strange world
It’s the greater scrutiny he will get.
I doubt it. It is a known known now
And if that is all the opposition hasve got they will lose
They also have the detail of the WA and WAIB which has not been scrutinised yet and, frankly, the Conservatives must hope it stays that way. It’s a terrible deal.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Johnson's character? What age are you living in? Trump's character is infinitetly worse than Boris', and yet he won easily. Very few people vote based on some bizarre set of Puritan ethics.
Trump did not win easily, in fact he got less votes than Clinton, he won only because the electoral college does not directly reflect the popular vote. And I think you will fin that there are many women, and indeed men, that regard sexual cheating, abandonment of children and barefaced lying as reprehensible.
Apparently all Tories are selfish, lying baby eaters with no principles so the other parties want to keep them in power in case they lose a GE cos they're really principled and never tell fibs. That pretty well sums up the thread. G'night all.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Johnson's character? What age are you living in? Trump's character is infinitetly worse than Boris', and yet he won easily. Very few people vote based on some bizarre set of Puritan ethics.
Won easily? You must have been watching a different election to the rest of us. I think the adjective you are looking for is “barely”.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
No but the Tories will have two major disadvantages which they did not have in 2017
* they will have to campaign in favour of Johnson's deal, which will come under detailed scrutiny and will be found to have many faults;
* Johnson's character will become an issue, many people, women in particular, will recoil from supporting him for reasons entirely unrelated to Brexit. My wife is a case in point - she was quite supportive of Theresa May, who she thought was doing her best in difficult circumstances. But her opinion of Johnson cannot be repeated on a family programme, and that is due to his attitude to women.
Does he have a notable and discreditable "attitude" to women? I realise he is pro shagging them, but absent any evidence that they are not pro being shagged, so what?
Serial adulterer. Shacking up with the mistress while the wife’s having cancer treatment. That kind of thing.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
"The future is ours to make".
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
Or the Conservatives.
Whenever I read "The future is ours to make" my brain autocompletes with "Que sera, sera".
Well quite. But the local elections that year showed that there was at least something in the huge Tory leads.
If we enter a crazy world where polling day was the first day of the campaign, I have no doubt that May would be sitting on a majority of 60+ right now.
The campaign was what did for her. And yes many polls still got the result wrong, but they had tightened come Election Day).
We were told that the reason for the election was to get a mandate for her Brexit. When she lost her majority we were then told it had nothing to do with Brexit.
That is why holding a GE to try to resolve Brexit again is pointless.
I’ve been piling on December election all day, I still think it’s going through on Monday.
These latest polls make it less likely that the GE will be in December doesn't it?
Yet corbyn went for it when even further behind last time, knowing big defeat was end of his project.
Let’s get into the psychology of the corbynites. You think Pidcock and Burgon and Milne, lansman, looking at that poll and remotely worried about losing? These people and others are all around Corbyns ears this weekend.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Take the piss out of the cowards? What more does he need?
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Take the piss out of the cowards? What more does he need?
He may need a Plan B as it looks like the opposition may not rise to your baiting.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
"The future is ours to make".
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
Or the Conservatives.
Whenever I read "The future is ours to make" my brain autocompletes with "Que sera, sera".
I’m more reminded of “The future belongs to me” tbh.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Take the piss out of the cowards? What more does he need?
He may need a Plan B as it looks like the opposition may not rise to your baiting.
Plan A is good, continue with it.
It will be like Southampton v Leicester. Why stop just because the opposition doesn't like the scoreline?
Once we get to an election, whenever it comes, I doubt that there is much traction in the argument that one of the parties might have inflicted the election upon voters even earlier. People are getting too excited about a point that won’t trouble voters at all.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Take the piss out of the cowards? What more does he need?
He may need a Plan B as it looks like the opposition may not rise to your baiting.
But to be fair to Thomo, with these polls the British public clearly aren’t looking to Boris for a plan B, just carry on with Cummings people v the rotten parliament plan.
'It's time for real change' is bog standard, a near universal slogan for election time for opposition, with the minor adjustment that other promises for change were not 'real' I guess. The other is an invitation for people as a movement to deliver change, or even to deliver not change if they want as it is geniusly non specific, while the future reference makes it immediately seem more epochal a choice.
"The future is ours to make".
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
Or the Conservatives.
Whenever I read "The future is ours to make" my brain autocompletes with "Que sera, sera".
Once we get to an election, whenever it comes, I doubt that there is much traction in the argument that one of the parties might have inflicted the election upon voters even earlier. People are getting too excited about a point that won’t trouble voters at all.
Credibility and character matter. If Chicken Corbyn becomes a part of his character he won't be able to come back from that.
Voters like strong leaders, not cowards. Corbyn's reputation surged in 2017 when he showed leadership and strength in going toe-to-toe with May despite the polls. Being dragged kicking and screaming to them won't win him any favours.
The interest about how Mays huge lead disappeared is that it’s very unlikely you’d get a swathe of Tory to Labour switchers .
So polls that showed her with 20 + leads clearly had both sampling and turnout errors.
Not sure the same will happen this time but still on the face of it Labour are closer to Johnson than they were to May .
Indeed. It's surprising that Tories on here are so gung ho about an election - they lost a much bigger lead than the one they now have during the 2017 campaign. And who's to say it could not happen again?
Its no longer that much bigger a lead!
But if there isn’t vote for an election on Monday what is Boris plan for Tuesday and the rest of the week. 😟
Take the piss out of the cowards? What more does he need?
He may need a Plan B as it looks like the opposition may not rise to your baiting.
But to be fair to Thomo, with these polls the British public clearly aren’t looking to Boris for a plan B, just carry on with Cummings people v the rotten parliament plan.
Yes but it’s not getting them very far - save to be able to feel good about the latest polls every Saturday night. If I were Corbyn I would keep on with the rope-a-dope strategy until Cummings f**ks up.
We were told that the reason for the election was to get a mandate for her Brexit. When she lost her majority we were then told it had nothing to do with Brexit.
That is why holding a GE to try to resolve Brexit again is pointless.
Funnily enough if she had stuck with Brexit resolution as her only campaign theme and joined in the debates and sent the whole team out to reinforce the message I think the result would have been different.
Straying off the Brexit message in to grown up politics (telling voters they needed to take more responsibility for their old age care) is what did for May.
I really think all the sides are being far too bloody complicated and devious in their plottings. The matters to be resolved are pretty simple, and tying themselves in knots to counter as wide an array of permutations as possible just makes all of them look like idiots to me.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
I said it earlier. I will say it again now.
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
When the history’s written it will be interesting how quickly the libdems ditched people’s vote in favour of a General election when they were doing well in the polls, and Boris a little bit boxed in.
For SNP it’s different. They are certain to gain independence with brexit and a Boris majority government.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
I said it earlier. I will say it again now.
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
There's a difference between it being different territory now and it not being certain things will turn out in the same (or similar) way, and what happened then not mattering as though it is certain it cannot happen in the same or similar fashion.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
I said it earlier. I will say it again now.
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
On that basis we would never seek guidance from any earlier elections - yet many commentators and analysts are inclined to go back much further than 2017.
It is impossible for Corbyn to embody anything about the future.
His age. His appearance. His demeanour. His attitudes. His policy positions.
He is about the past - a past that never existed
There is nothing about him that is about the future
His age and appearance do not mean anything about whether he or his views might embody the future - many, including young people, seem content to believe this grandfather figure will offer than that.
His attitude and policy positions hearkening back to a past, and a past that never really existed, seems a much more relevant and potent point for his opponents to make, albeit one that is actually a positive for many of his supporters, who can pretend he is offering the future the past could have given us if we had only listened to he and his at the time.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
I said it earlier. I will say it again now.
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
There's a difference between it being different territory now and it not being certain things will turn out in the same (or similar) way, and what happened then not mattering as though it is certain it cannot happen in the same or similar fashion.
The constant repetition of those polling numbers is being done to try to convince us that it will play out the same when the next election is called.
We are in a different place and past events cannot be an absolute guide for the direction of travel
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
Two groups of 'Tory Little Helpers'.!
Corbyn is the master Tory Helper, he is literally trying to keep Boris in Downing Street while Labour MPs go through the Aye Lobby to pass Boris's Brexits Second Reading.
Prior to the 2017 most polls were showing leads in the region of 16-19% with just 2 exceptional polls at 21%.
Recently there's been a number of poll leads 13-15%
There's not that big of a gap between 13-15% and 16-19% and if Labour continue to hide behind the sofa it wouldn't surprise me if we see 16-19% leads before much longer. What's the next step then, geniuses?
Yougov and Comres both had Tory leads of 21% prior to May's announcement. ICM showed a lead of 18%. There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
Opinium showed 9% lead
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
But we have also seen recent leads in the 4% - 6% range.An election is also far more 'in the air' than was the case in April 2017 - it would not come out of the blue were it to happen.For that reason , it probably makes sense to take account of the 2017 polls taken in the week following May's announcement . Several showed leads in the 22% - 25% range.
I said it earlier. I will say it again now.
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
There's a difference between it being different territory now and it not being certain things will turn out in the same (or similar) way, and what happened then not mattering as though it is certain it cannot happen in the same or similar fashion.
The constant repetition of those polling numbers is being done to try to convince us that it will play out the same when the next election is called.
We are in a different place and past events cannot be an absolute guide for the direction of travel
No they cannot, but the immediate dismissal of them is also being done to try to convince us that it definiteiy will not play out the same when the next election is called, and I see no difference in those attempts to push a narrative of inevitability.
It is impossible for Corbyn to embody anything about the future.
His age. His appearance. His demeanour. His attitudes. His policy positions.
He is about the past - a past that never existed
There is nothing about him that is about the future
His age and appearance do not mean anything about whether he or his views might embody the future - many, including young people, seem content to believe this grandfather figure will offer than that.
His attitude and policy positions hearkening back to a past, and a past that never really existed, seems a much more relevant and potent point for his opponents to make, albeit one that is actually a positive for many of his supporters, who can pretend he is offering the future the past could have given us if we had only listened to he and his at the time.
The issue which many voters feel is that they've seen the future (deregulated chaos with huge social division) and they don't think it works (for them). Some want a more regulated, socialist approach; others take a punt on populism and nationalism. The appetite for steadily heading into more of the same is very limited.
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
You are so loyal and that is comendable but are you really arguing that 23% labour rating is a base for winning a GE barely 7 weeks away
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
You are so loyal and that is comendable but are you really arguing that 23% labour rating is a base for winning a GE barely 7 weeks away
It is impossible for Corbyn to embody anything about the future.
His age. His appearance. His demeanour. His attitudes. His policy positions.
He is about the past - a past that never existed
There is nothing about him that is about the future
His age and appearance do not mean anything about whether he or his views might embody the future - many, including young people, seem content to believe this grandfather figure will offer than that.
His attitude and policy positions hearkening back to a past, and a past that never really existed, seems a much more relevant and potent point for his opponents to make, albeit one that is actually a positive for many of his supporters, who can pretend he is offering the future the past could have given us if we had only listened to he and his at the time.
It is impossible for Corbyn to embody anything about the future.
His age. His appearance. His demeanour. His attitudes. His policy positions.
He is about the past - a past that never existed
There is nothing about him that is about the future
His age and appearance do not mean anything about whether he or his views might embody the future - many, including young people, seem content to believe this grandfather figure will offer than that.
His attitude and policy positions hearkening back to a past, and a past that never really existed, seems a much more relevant and potent point for his opponents to make, albeit one that is actually a positive for many of his supporters, who can pretend he is offering the future the past could have given us if we had only listened to he and his at the time.
I think his age is a factor. He cannot embody the future in the same way someone younger or more vibrant.
Labour hasn't got someone who can deliver the policy platform that they are currently pushing combined with a credible, younger leader who can create some sense on public enthusiasm.
None of Corbyn's touted successors seem to have this combination. There may be suitable talent in the Labour movement but the current ruling clique has either yet to find it or they are stifling it because they are not true believers.
Going for a future based campaign would be a mistake under the current leadership
The lib dem-SNP plan sounds very fair. Sturgeons objection to the Johnson plan was that a GE shouldn't be dependent on blackmail of the Tories wrt Brexit, far more coherent than Labours preposterous No Deal nonsense. Johnson should take up the offer - won't be time to get votes for 16-17 year olds etc in and I doubt those wndemnta would have the support of the house
Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
You are so loyal and that is comendable but are you really arguing that 23% labour rating is a base for winning a GE barely 7 weeks away
I left Labour 23 years ago and have no wish to return - unlike some people who found it difficult to abandon their party membership for barely 23 days. 23% is actually the figure Labour recorded with Yougov at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Yougov was also the only pollster in the EU election to understate Labour's vote share.
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
You are so loyal and that is comendable but are you really arguing that 23% labour rating is a base for winning a GE barely 7 weeks away
Called it! Labour ambiguity is giving the Lib Dems the Green Light to be the real nationwide opposition.
There is a very real threat labour will be annihilated if this continues
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour's vote has stabilised with Yougov giving them 23% compared with 18%/19% in June and July. The LibDems have fallen back a bit and are now in a clear third place even with Yougov.Perhaps they feel a bit desperate for an election so as to avoid further slippage.
You are so loyal and that is comendable but are you really arguing that 23% labour rating is a base for winning a GE barely 7 weeks away
I left Labour 23 years ago and have no wish to return - unlike some people who found it difficult to abandon their party membership for barely 23 days. 23% is actually the figure Labour recorded with Yougov at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Yougov was also the only pollster in the EU election to understate Labour's vote share.
Ok Justin.
I do not want to upset you so lets disagree amicably and no doubt we will see soon who is right
Not helpful if that is what the voters want too.....
What do the voters want? The WA - hardly. May's WA - nope. They just want it "over with" - the Overwithers now run the country. They are tired and they want this done.
Doesn't make them right.
It's also my experience tired people will agree to anything if the conditions are right and will run to anyone who promises an end to it whatever that end actually means.
In all honesty, if that were completely true, the Lib Dems should be on 45%.
They're the only ones offering to end it. But the problem is, that so is Johnson even though he's not.
What’s worse for Corbyn , the Tories going into an election after Brexit of before.
Difficult decision .
After. Before has its problems, the Tories could clean up the Brexit vote and keep Tory remain voters satisfied with some kind of deal, but it at least has the chance of BXP spoiling the Tory party, and the inherent strength of the Labour brand plus the hope of Corbyn repeating his campaigning skills of last time, resulting in either mitigating the bad result, or who knows even preventing a Tory win. That may not be considered likely, but it has a chance.
Conversely, if the election takes place after Brexit what harm is there for angry Remain voters in voting for the most passionately remain party, the LDs? The Tories will already have achieved a terrible thing, off the back of Labour rebel votes no less, so more chance someone decides they can punish Labour?
Before but for a different reason - the outlet for remainers will be LDs, squeezing the Labour vote massively. After Brexit, the LD's will not be as attractive since many people will have given up on the outcome.
An interesting theory, one which many people hold. I think Labour will hold up before Brexit by people holding their noses and voting tactically, otherwise Brexit might happen. I just don't think remainers will shoot themselves in the foot by mass voting for the LDs.
I think, in a GE, despite it offering the 'best' chance for Remain that they're screwed.
If everyone who wanted to Remain voted LD, then LD would probably landslide it on 45% of the vote.
The problem is tribalism. Coming from Bootle I see it daily, and see it first hand. "Do you want to stop Brexit?" "Yes! I hate it. I want to Remain. Anything to Remain!". "So, you'll be voting Lib Dem then?" "What? Eh?! No... I'm voting Labour! LABOUR." "But they don't support Remain. Best you get is a 2nd Ref, and even then they haven't committed to campaigning for Remain, they've left the door open to leaving with 'their' deal."
At this point, you should usually see a 'head explodes' scene as they realise the incompatibility of this position with their hatred of Brexit. But you don't. Instead its a simple and calm, "That's not true; and even if it were, I'm still voting Labour."
Labour almost certainly won't get less than 25% in a GE. And massive vote efficiency probably ensures at least 160 seats, if not more.
It means Remain are doomed, because a good chunk of that 25%, if they switched to LD would deliver a LD minority government. But the tribals can't do it. They can't not vote Labour. They have to vote Labour. It's the law.
Comments
There were no polls showing Tory leads in low single figures.
In short, he is an actual populist in a populist age - exactly what we need to win. If he'd been running the GE2017 campaign, the Tories would have gotten their anticipated majority.
How bloody anodyne. It could more appropriately be appropriated by the Brexit Party, in a post-Brexit world.
Or the Conservatives.
Calmer heads are needed and no counting chickens before they are hatched for me
You would think so but there is no evidence so far, indeed he seems to be advancing in the polls
Strange world
And if that is all the opposition hasve got they will lose
Labour should have 2 or 3 policy specific slogans relating to the NHS, crime and schools that can't be turned back on them.
Another way at looking at it Lab and Libdem certain to neatly share remain vote as libdems under Swinson not even fighting the Tories, from the big revoke policy (which surrendered votes and south west constituencies to Tories in order to win Labour metropolitan seats) to constant attacks on Labour for helping brexit happen.
There’s no way this can go wrong for HY and Boris now.
That is why holding a GE to try to resolve Brexit again is pointless.
Let’s get into the psychology of the corbynites. You think Pidcock and Burgon and Milne, lansman, looking at that poll and remotely worried about losing? These people and others are all around Corbyns ears this weekend.
Prior to the announcement the two 21%'s could have been outliers, besides Opinium's 9% and the two 21%'s all the others were 13-19%
The multiple 13-15% we have had recently are at the lowe end of the 13-19% window.
If you think about what would happen if parliament did nothing for the next 3 months then it tells you which side needs an alternative plan.
It will be like Southampton v Leicester. Why stop just because the opposition doesn't like the scoreline?
Voters like strong leaders, not cowards. Corbyn's reputation surged in 2017 when he showed leadership and strength in going toe-to-toe with May despite the polls. Being dragged kicking and screaming to them won't win him any favours.
Straying off the Brexit message in to grown up politics (telling voters they needed to take more responsibility for their old age care) is what did for May.
Plus she was appalling in an election format.
His age. His appearance. His demeanour. His attitudes. His policy positions.
He is about the past - a past that never existed
There is nothing about him that is about the future
We have had enough of that
Just get on with it
We are not in 2017 now. That is the past.
We cannot assume that any future campaign will play out exactly as that one did.
We are in different territory. You know this. But you keep harping on about something that doesn't matter
For SNP it’s different. They are certain to gain independence with brexit and a Boris majority government.
His attitude and policy positions hearkening back to a past, and a past that never really existed, seems a much more relevant and potent point for his opponents to make, albeit one that is actually a positive for many of his supporters, who can pretend he is offering the future the past could have given us if we had only listened to he and his at the time.
We are in a different place and past events cannot be an absolute guide for the direction of travel
Scared out of their minds to call an election then shamed as the SNP and the Lib Dems support an amendment to the a FTPA backed by Boris and with a sensible 9th December date
It looks as if it could not get any worse and time now for Corbyn to show leadership, bite the bullet, and whip for the election on either date
Labour hasn't got someone who can deliver the policy platform that they are currently pushing combined with a credible, younger leader who can create some sense on public enthusiasm.
None of Corbyn's touted successors seem to have this combination. There may be suitable talent in the Labour movement but the current ruling clique has either yet to find it or they are stifling it because they are not true believers.
Going for a future based campaign would be a mistake under the current leadership
Johnson should take up the offer - won't be time to get votes for 16-17 year olds etc in and I doubt those wndemnta would have the support of the house
It is game over for labour playing games
I do not want to upset you so lets disagree amicably and no doubt we will see soon who is right
They're the only ones offering to end it. But the problem is, that so is Johnson even though he's not.
If everyone who wanted to Remain voted LD, then LD would probably landslide it on 45% of the vote.
The problem is tribalism. Coming from Bootle I see it daily, and see it first hand.
"Do you want to stop Brexit?" "Yes! I hate it. I want to Remain. Anything to Remain!".
"So, you'll be voting Lib Dem then?" "What? Eh?! No... I'm voting Labour! LABOUR."
"But they don't support Remain. Best you get is a 2nd Ref, and even then they haven't committed to campaigning for Remain, they've left the door open to leaving with 'their' deal."
At this point, you should usually see a 'head explodes' scene as they realise the incompatibility of this position with their hatred of Brexit. But you don't. Instead its a simple and calm, "That's not true; and even if it were, I'm still voting Labour."
Labour almost certainly won't get less than 25% in a GE. And massive vote efficiency probably ensures at least 160 seats, if not more.
It means Remain are doomed, because a good chunk of that 25%, if they switched to LD would deliver a LD minority government. But the tribals can't do it. They can't not vote Labour. They have to vote Labour. It's the law.