politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test
Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords.
It's a good argument, and one I ultimately accept. It is, however, a major omission to overlook all the political damage that Leaving is itself causing. Leavers are trashing every civic institution on the way out. Remain or Leave, Britain's political institutions are going to be very badly damaged.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
*I am not surprised - Customs in the Irish sea is not acceptable to be fair.
However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.
I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE
Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit
The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.
I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party
It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.
Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the initiative and by their obtuse reaction they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.
* I am aware a FTA will resolve the Irish Sea Customs but that has not cut through and the argument has to be made, and won
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
Pretty well anything now will continue the damage for some time, sadly
With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain
Not promising territory for them, but you’d expect some LD increase. The big question is whether that comes more from Lab rather than Con. In seats like this I’d expect a lot less Lab-Con switching than Cummings-Johnson are counting on.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain
Yougov this morning would see the Tories gain Bassetlaw with 37% to 35% for Labour.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.
If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.
This article needs to be read and understood by all peoples vote and remain mps.
This is exactly my point in my previous post down thread
On topic this place isn't that far from me and would have been part of the Sheffield City Region and Mayoralty.
It is one of those places that hasn't fully recovered from the end of the coal industry.
I think the Tories could win this in a by election (thanks to lazy Labour voters) but a Labour hold at a general election if we don't get a by election.
No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.
Yep. Although .... it'd sail through in a free vote.
If, at this point, people won't vote the way they believe, and are tied to the whip, they are cowards, and more likely don't really care to vote for it or they would.
Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 390
Yeah yeah
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 390
Yeah yeah
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 390
Yeah yeah
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.
Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 390
Yeah yeah
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.
Yes, you are correct and that must be his way forward
Great England performance but each match is different , commentators giving them the trophy already are being very premature .
All the pressure will be on them next week.
Yep. It is fascinating how close these teams are at the moment. New Zealand looked spectacular last week. Wales and South Africa have both looked very very good. With the obvious exception of New Zealand now I would not really like to predict who will win out of the remaining 3.
But of course if it can't be England I would be delighted with Wales.
Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
I do believe this has been the best World Cup ever so far...Japan is an amazing host.
Comments
The bit of the A1 before it becomes motorway at Blyth.
Re the Times survey
*I am not surprised - Customs in the Irish sea is not acceptable to be fair.
However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.
I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE
Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit
The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.
I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party
It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.
Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the initiative and by their obtuse reaction they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.
* I am aware a FTA will resolve the Irish Sea Customs but that has not cut through and the argument has to be made, and won
Yougov
Tories 36%
Labour 23%
LDs 18%
Brexit Party 12%
Greens 6%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-fails-to-convince-voters-3mzxthtp5?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1572074946
If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.
This one was more than questionable.
An incompetent/biased TMO destroying England's chances.
This is exactly my point in my previous post down thread
They need an election now
It is one of those places that hasn't fully recovered from the end of the coal industry.
I think the Tories could win this in a by election (thanks to lazy Labour voters) but a Labour hold at a general election if we don't get a by election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marius_Jonker
Compare and contrast with the play acting, cheating, and pathetic overpaid footballers
Conservatives 396
Labour 164
SNP 34
LDs 33
Plaid 3
Greens 2
BXP 0
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=23&LIB=18&Brexit=12&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Just irrepressible
Fantastic all round performance.
If she cheers South Africa tomorrow I will disown her.
All the pressure will be on them next week.
I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.
I thought Ford had a huge game, for one.
Order of support:
1. All Blacks
2. Wales, Scotland, Ireland
3. Literally anybody
4. England
5. Australia
6. The accursed Springboks
Let’s hope that, unlike the All Blacks, we can have an amazing win two weeks running.
I support them both being half Welsh, half English
I can not fault them.
But of course if it can't be England I would be delighted with Wales.
Cannot come soon enough.
The pompous, bullying, pro remain speaker has demeaned his office on a scale I could not imagine of any speaker