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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening in line with Johnson’s timetable

Inevitably today has seen a lot of activity on the Brexit linked betting markets as our charts of Betfair movements from Bedata.io show. The broad consensus of punters is that Brexit is less likely to happen in 2019.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    Hello...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,232
    Nigelb said:

    Hello...

    Is it me you're looking for?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,232
    Ma Beckett? Stone the crows!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,232
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties
  • Options
    oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    edited September 2019
    All the hypothetical polling is irrelevant right now, in my view. A delay to Brexit will play out on a scale which will leave nobody in the country in doubt as to who are the heroes and villains, there just won't be a consensus between people as to which is which. If Boris fights it to the last ounce, Tory support won't collapse as predicted - indeed it might pick up some from Brexit - even if delay ultimately happens. That, is the plan - there has to be a general election at some point.

    The deeper Brexiteer plan is that the Conservative Party is now captured for evermore, and the opposition is wildly split. The hard left is in control of Labour, and the Lib Dems, well, they can go high in vote share without getting many seats (as we've seen in the recent-ish past). So what if we fail to leave in 2019, 2020, 2021 - a non-Tory government will be a disaster, probably in charge during a recession, and a no-Deal Tory party will win a landslide when it inevitably collapses. Johnson is collateral damage.

    Of course demographics put this at risk, and it was the strategy of the Bennite tendency in 1979 with regard to keeping Labour socialist, so it may have flaws.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,232
    FPT
    david_herdson said:

    JackW said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
    Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

    I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

    If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.
    Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

    Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.
    Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.
    The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

    "A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

    While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.
    I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Now hes full on for the drugs companies
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1176526822265282563
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    edited September 2019
    Margaret Beckett is surely only an interim leader, though? Which markets include/exclude that?

    Edit: wait, you're talking about a situation in which Jez leads the party but Beckett is PM? On any other day that would seem strange.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The only way anyone but BJ or JC is PM is to apply for an extension and go straight to the country. The thought of anyone else actually governing is for the birds. Theres no way a cuckoo government survives long enough to run a referendum, for example
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    david_herdson said:

    JackW said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
    Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

    I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

    If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.
    Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

    Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.
    Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.
    The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

    "A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

    While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.
    I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?
    that's what i thought too
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,285
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

    :) Will Of The People.....
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

    :) Will Of The People.....
    I'm sure all the party leaders would be out on that metric
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    edited September 2019
    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    dyedwoolie said:

    Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

    Yep.

    If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

    Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

    The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434
  • Options
    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    david_herdson said:

    JackW said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
    Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

    I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

    If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.
    Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

    Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.
    Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.
    The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

    "A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

    While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.
    I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?
    That was my understanding. The Northern Irish case wasn't given leave to appeal as the Scottish and English and Welsh appeals had already reached the SC. However the lead NI claimant was allowed to intervene on this appeal and a key aspect of the NI case was that Brexit itself breached the GFA. Hence that comment.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    It won't be Clarke as he does not believe in a second referendum
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434

    Would he have got an election? Doubtful...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2019
    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434

    Would he have got an election? Doubtful...
    Didn’t it get put to a vote and turned down. Twice?
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    With gilts this low, makes sense, especially a new generation of social housing of high quality and low energy.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Fenman said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.
    This is one example of why Jezza and co want to exit the EU. Property rights is another.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    GIN1138 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

    Yep.

    If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

    Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

    The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...
    Which is exactly what will happen, at the point where the PM has no other options left to avoid writing the extension letter.
  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

    :) Will Of The People.....
    By Remainer logic, we should have a referendum on whether or not Boris Johnson should resign, and then ignore the outcome if the answer's "Yes"!
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Fenman said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.
    It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    No wonder Jezza wants out of Europe. He will also find it is a bit difficult to infringe international patents. It will also close down our very successful pharma and medical device industry. What a bunch of cretins. If the LDs cannot break through with the two main alternatives being so economically illiterate it means either the LDs are no good or the electorate are thick as pig shit. Both the former and latter are possible.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    that's an enormous amount of spending.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    rottenborough said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    With gilts this low, makes sense, especially a new generation of social housing of high quality and low energy.
    yes it does, the issue will be there is very little capaciy short term to match his ambitions.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    It is the morning after #GE2019.
    I wake up on the sofa, fully clothed, my laptop on one side and a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza on the other.
    Groggy, I pick up the laptop and refresh my Chrome tabs.

    The Tories have again failed to win a majority. The Lib Dems are on track to top 50 seats and the Brexit Party have two MPs. Scotland is a disaster zone for the blues and reds. There is talk of a rainbow coalition.

    I flick over to Twitter.

    "THREAD. Why not forming a government is good news for Boris Johnson and Brexit..."

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    david_herdson said:

    The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

    "A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

    While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.

    I think that para 57 is fine in the context of the importance of the change and parliament have severely restricted opportunities to undertake their role. The last sentence is the Justices reiterating, as they did in the hearings, that BREXIT is not a matter for them.

    I've read the judgement fully. An excellent piece of work that IMO will stand down the generations.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Worth remembering the markets don't have a fantastic record on predicting outcomes in this sort of area.

    They thought Remain had won by a pretty good margin.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    that's an enormous amount of spending.

    Fire up the printing presses!

    (Oh, and to everyone else, start buying US dollars, Swiss francs and Japanese yen)
  • Options
    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    This is why leaving the EU isn't even in the top five worst aspects of Brexit. That specific Leave campaign established that peopke are entitled to things just because they voted for them. ( A fundamentally unconservative view ). It's very difficult to argue Corbynism is taboo when you can get Unicorns on your USS Brexit replicator.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal? :)

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2019
    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

    Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    I thought that, but given the Tories are still despite everything 2/5 to win the next election perhaps it isn't that inconsistent.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    So not just property rights that aren't safe under Jezza, intellectual rights aren't either.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,622
    steve_garner said:

    Fenman said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.
    It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.
    They will vote for a deal, almost any deal, just not no deal.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    GIN1138 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

    Yep.

    If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

    Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

    The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...
    We have had enough of decisions 🤣 🤣 🤣
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,622
    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    that's an enormous amount of spending.

    Fire up the printing presses!

    (Oh, and to everyone else, start buying US dollars, Swiss francs and Japanese yen)
    Unlike QE for the rich the last decade?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    Winning that bet involves tying your stake up for two and a bit years. It is a shame bookies no longer open credit accounts (at least, they don't for ordinary punters).
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2019
    The Crime Minister?

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1176529665256591366
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Jezza is going to get the lawyer vote....cos they ain't half going to be very busy under his government.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    noneoftheabove said:

    steve_garner said:

    Fenman said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.
    It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.
    They will vote for a deal, almost any deal, just not no deal.
    The risk of the madness and damage of Corbyn govt are frightening but possibly reversible. The madness of no-deal Brexit is not reversible. This is the route Brexiteers have taken the Tory Party down. They can no longer claim to be the party of sensible government or sensible economics. They are just another swiveleyed revolutionary party
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

    Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.
    Hes banking on a pissed off electorate. This is his chance to get back disaffected voters who think Brexit is not as important as wages and houses.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

    Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,072
    Alanbrooke said:

    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

    Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

    It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    spudgfsh said:

    that's an enormous amount of spending.

    It's the magic money wood, just a tad larger than the Tory magic money copse
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So not just property rights that aren't safe under Jezza, intellectual rights aren't either.

    Which is a world wide system of patent laws.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    williamglenn said:

    Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal? :)

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345

    Preparing? He kneels with Seamus each night and prays for it surely?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1176531392794152960
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    I can't find Margaret Beckett next PM on Oddschecker at all.

    Bear in mind I can find Piers Morgan at 500/1.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,622
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

    Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.

    Are they running Labour for the benefit of the country or to move the Labour party to a clear marxist agenda? I think the latter, it is not that they do not understand that they cannot implement these policies, it is that the purpose of the policies is not pragmatic but emotional. Very similar to Brexiteers running the Tory party.
  • Options
    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    Winning that bet involves tying your stake up for two and a bit years. It is a shame bookies no longer open credit accounts (at least, they don't for ordinary punters).
    You'd lay it off on betfair after the GE, assuming the Tories didn't win.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello...

    Is it me you're looking for?
    I'm not blind, you know.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    kinabalu said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

    Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

    It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?
    this will put the cat among the pigeons. We will enter a promises auction and some of the pent up frustrations will have to be addressed. The Tories can choose to either have a counter vision or be outflanked.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
    Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Foremain, I'd be rather more concerned about the prospect of a far left government that that.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Drutt said:

    I can't find Margaret Beckett next PM on Oddschecker at all.

    Bear in mind I can find Piers Morgan at 500/1.

    Any lab figure that isn't Corbyn is throwing money away
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited September 2019
    Brexit then a Corbyn majority government. Is that how one of the world's oldest democracies dies? Can we pull out of the descent into madness?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    kinabalu said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

    Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

    It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?
    What a very good point.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

    Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.

    short term it will be a battle in the courts as to whether it could be done under treaties we have signed up to. long term it will mean that we get less research / breakthroughs and new drugs.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,088
    Sandpit said:

    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.
    While I was abroad a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Betfair Exchange odds appeared to be the same whether the stake was in Euros or sterling.

    That amazed me, given the expected impact on exchange rates.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    And watch the entire pharma industry decamp to Europe.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    And watch the entire pharma industry decamp to Europe.
    I thoght thatwas happening anyway due to Brexit ?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    Alanbrooke said:

    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

    Money forest is blooming
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2019
    If labour do this with drug companies, why would any research business risk being in the uk...cos tomorrow the great leader could decide your industry is next.

    And of cos regardless of brexit, high tech research is what the uk needs to do more and more of, not have all the companies thinking their IP could be sequestered.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    No Tom Watson on the platform ....

    Chortle .....
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    Femi
    @Femi_Sorry
    ·
    5h
    Boris Johnson is currently in New York, where he was born, and will soon be attempting to enter the UK.

    Maybe you're right,
    @BorisJohnson
    , maybe we should send back any migrant who breaks our laws?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

    Money forest is blooming
    nah Scotland :-)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019
    dyedwoolie said:

    Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
    Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

    LOL, you guys have been saying this for weeks, but the Tory position in the polls hasn't improved (except perhaps with Opinium) during that time.

    I remember on one of Boris's "walkabouts" a couple of weeks ago, he did manage to find a crowd of oldies who worryingly were cheering most of his lines. "We need to leave on 31 October, don't we?" YES! "We need to put more police on the streets, don't we" YES! The one line of his that didn't work was when he said "And we need to have an election, don't we?" - the crowd were completely muted at that, before one woman shouted out something like "we just want you to get us out of Europe!"
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    williamglenn said:

    Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal? :)

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345

    Within weeks we would have no drugs for the NHS that are produced abroad and within a year the destruction of our pharma sector. From just one of the lunatic policies!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    bigjohnowls said:

    Femi
    @Femi_Sorry
    ·
    5h
    Boris Johnson is currently in New York, where he was born, and will soon be attempting to enter the UK.

    Maybe you're right,
    @BorisJohnson
    , maybe we should send back any migrant who breaks our laws?

    Can't because he only has British citizenship. :p
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

    Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

    It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?
    What a very good point.
    Think it was more the latter unfortunately
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,072
    The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

    They really ought to stop that.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

    Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.
    Insane, yes - but it isn't hilarious if people are applauding it.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

    Money forest is blooming
    It always amazes me that the left/hard left don't realise that they can put tax rates up as much as they want for the top end but it doesn't always raise more tax.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    dyedwoolie said:

    Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
    Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

    I think anger can go in many directions. I am angry about what a bunch of far right loons have done to the Conservative Party, economic stability, the constitution and the Monarch. Yea, in a non-violent way I am very angry, and I want Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to be totally humiliated in some way or other (ideally not via Mr Thicky Corbyn). It will be the biggest amount of schadenfreude I have ever allowed myself when he is ignominiously removed from power in absolute disgrace and goes down in history as the worst most incompetent idiot to ever have held high office
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

    Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

    It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?
    What a very good point.
    Yes, agreed.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

    Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.
    Insane, yes - but it isn't hilarious if people are applauding it.
    Not funny at all. Frightening.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    edited September 2019
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    david_herdson said:

    3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

    Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.
    While I was abroad a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Betfair Exchange odds appeared to be the same whether the stake was in Euros or sterling.

    That amazed me, given the expected impact on exchange rates.
    That’s a very good point - although no deal will likely lead to both the pound and euro falling against other major currencies.

    I wonder if Betfair simply convert from and to Sterling on the date of the transaction, need to research that. It wouldn’t make sense for them to be taking on currency exchange risk.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,286
    JackW said:

    spudgfsh said:

    that's an enormous amount of spending.

    It's the magic money wood, just a tad larger than the Tory magic money copse
    It's a bloody tropical rainforest.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kinabalu said:

    The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

    They really ought to stop that.

    Labour might actually win my vote. If they promised a referendum on deal vs. Remain. I would vote for them!
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Danny565 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
    Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

    LOL, you guys have been saying this for weeks, but the Tory position in the polls hasn't improved (except perhaps with Opinium) during that time.

    I remember on one of Boris's "walkabouts" a couple of weeks ago, he did manage to find a crowd of oldies who worryingly were cheering most of his lines. "We need to leave on 31 October, don't we?" YES! "We need to put more police on the streets, don't we" YES! The one line of his that didn't work was when he said "And we need to have an election, don't we?" - the crowd were completely muted at that, before one woman shouted out something like "we just want you to get us out of Europe!"
    Oh my only interest in a GE is getting Clive Lewis out and 'literally anyone' to replace him. I'm pleased some in labour fear for his seat with their current Brexit fudge
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,488
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    Quite apart from the legal issues, there may well be technical issues too. Pharmaceuticals, particularly biologics, are not always straightforward to synthesise.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited September 2019
    Given Boris will resign as PM by October 31st rather than extend if a new Brexit Deal has not been agreed with the EU and approved by Parliament by then and given the LDs will vote down a Corbyn government as will Tory anti No Deal rebels only a PM acceptable to the LDs and Tory rebels will do. That probably means PM Ken Clarke or maybe PM Harman or PM Beckett by the end of October.

    Boris will be Leader of the Opposition regardless with Corbyn forced to prop up a Clarke or Harman premiership until extension has been passed and Boris then pushes a VONC he will have to support
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kinabalu said:

    The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

    They really ought to stop that.

    Damned right they should.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    kinabalu said:

    The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

    They really ought to stop that.

    Mmm, but such ideas rarely benefit ordinary people. Have you heard of a place called Venezuela?
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jezza is going to get the lawyer vote....cos they ain't half going to be very busy under his government.

    They seem to be busy enough under this one!
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

    They really ought to stop that.

    Do you really believe that?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

    Money forest is blooming
    It always amazes me that the left/hard left don't realise that they can put tax rates up as much as they want for the top end but it doesn't always raise more tax.
    Do you reckon any of them have ever even heard of Arthur Laffer?
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
    Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

    I think anger can go in many directions. I am angry about what a bunch of far right loons have done to the Conservative Party, economic stability, the constitution and the Monarch. Yea, in a non-violent way I am very angry, and I want Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to be totally humiliated in some way or other (ideally not via Mr Thicky Corbyn). It will be the biggest amount of schadenfreude I have ever allowed myself when he is ignominiously removed from power in absolute disgrace and goes down in history as the worst most incompetent idiot to ever have held high office
    Oh I think the anger is at the lot of them and the election will go to whoever best encapsulates 'fuck the system'
    That seems atm to be Johnson
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    Rory Stewart talking a lot of sense on R4...

    ... no wonder he stood no chance in the Tory leadership contest.
This discussion has been closed.