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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening

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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.
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    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyhoo, Trump likely to be impeached, what larks.

    I feel sorry for @Stark_Dawning having his avatar stolen! :D
    I'll change it back now.
    I always liked that photo of Dave
    I keep on meaning to do a thread comparing No Dealers to Pétain.

    Both made their people suffer when they should have been heroes.
    Great War or 1940s? (I know, I know, he did a lot to restore morale amongst the poilus after the mutinies in the trenches).
    Both, I find Pétain a fascinating character.

    I think he was given a hospital pass in 1940 yet he made a terrible decision worse.
    as I sometimes remark France surrendered it independence to Germany in1940 and nothing has changed in the intervening 79 years,
    It could have been us!

    In 1940 when Boris Johnson's hero tried to unite France and the UK.

    Just imagine if that unification had happened in 1940 or in 1955.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    That combination is so terrible that I daren't even think too much about it.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1176546376945143808
    The Coalition was a pretty decent time all told. Not without problems, but with governments 'a bit crappy' is not a bad result. I wanted the coalition to continue personally, but the public punished the LDs too much, to the point now no one will ever agree a formal coalition again in living memory (even as everyone talks of unity).
    Apart from the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which is a major source of the big mess we’re in right now!
    I've defended it because the main problem is how the politicians are choosing to behave, but the last month has demonstrated that it has indeed led to absurdities which the politicians should probably not have been given the opportunity to cock about with.
  • Options

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyhoo, Trump likely to be impeached, what larks.

    I feel sorry for @Stark_Dawning having his avatar stolen! :D
    I'll change it back now.
    I always liked that photo of Dave
    I keep on meaning to do a thread comparing No Dealers to Pétain.

    Both made their people suffer when they should have been heroes.
    Great War or 1940s? (I know, I know, he did a lot to restore morale amongst the poilus after the mutinies in the trenches).
    Both, I find Pétain a fascinating character.

    I think he was given a hospital pass in 1940 yet he made a terrible decision worse.
    as I sometimes remark France surrendered it independence to Germany in1940 and nothing has changed in the intervening 79 years,
    I am sure that is an attempt to be amusing, but it really is a poor attempt. Being anti-French is really rather lazy for a nice chap like you.
  • Options

    Looks like the dam has broken on an Impeachment Inquiry.

    UK or USA?
    Adam Price who tried to impeach Tony Blair for Iraq is now Leader of Plaid Cymru. He pointed out today that at the time Boris Johnson wrote an article supporting the idea.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,589
    Drutt said:

    Corbyn says he'll govern for the 99%.

    About 0.5% of UK citizens work in pharma or life sci...

    That policy is compatible only with no deal Brexit.
    Which makes him and the ERGers interesting bedfellows.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Noo said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    Typical commie wanting spoon fed by the state, will just mean people out on the street. Beggar off to Venezuela or China if you want such crap.
    Uh oh, someone's a bit sensitive about their rentier empire being undermined.
    I can confirm a Corbyn Government would commandeer all excess property of all people called Malc and give homes to all Labour voters
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Hilarity on Twitter though on this - McDonnell calls on Tories to oust Boris presumably to avoid a GE. Its pointed out Raab is first secretary of state, Labour calling for DominIc Raab to be PM!

    Eh? Just because he's First Secretary of State doesn't mean he would get picked to be the next PM by the Tories. That's not the case even when we had a Deputy PM, precedence in government hierarchies might not translate to being better able to command the confidence of the House.
    If Boris dies tomorrow, Raab is next in line
    There is not a line of succession for him to be next in line for. It may be that based on seniority and politics he is chosen to be the next PM in that situation, but there is no unequivocal pecking order such that someone else might not get chosen instead.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyhoo, Trump likely to be impeached, what larks.

    I feel sorry for @Stark_Dawning having his avatar stolen! :D
    I'll change it back now.
    I always liked that photo of Dave
    I keep on meaning to do a thread comparing No Dealers to Pétain.

    Both made their people suffer when they should have been heroes.
    Great War or 1940s? (I know, I know, he did a lot to restore morale amongst the poilus after the mutinies in the trenches).
    Both, I find Pétain a fascinating character.

    I think he was given a hospital pass in 1940 yet he made a terrible decision worse.
    as I sometimes remark France surrendered it independence to Germany in1940 and nothing has changed in the intervening 79 years,
    It could have been us!

    In 1940 when Boris Johnson's hero tried to unite France and the UK.

    Just imagine if that unification had happened in 1940 or in 1955.
    we caught them up and threw in the towel in 1992
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
    because everyone will be doing that and house prices will go down
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    That combination is so terrible that I daren't even think too much about it.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1176546376945143808
    The Coalition was a pretty decent time all told. Not without problems, but with governments 'a bit crappy' is not a bad result. I wanted the coalition to continue personally, but the public punished the LDs too much, to the point now no one will ever agree a formal coalition again in living memory (even as everyone talks of unity).
    Apart from the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which is a major source of the big mess we’re in right now!
    I am sure I recall something happened in 2016 that might have some bearing....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,589
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    ITV headlines not buying the semantics from Team Johnson

    "The Supreme Court rules that Boris Johnson abused his power and misled the Queen"

    Half correct.
    Even if Lady Hale did not herself say that he misled the Queen, didn't she uphold the Scottish court's judgement in full (including their comment that he misled the Queen)?
    The SC declined to consider the matter, as they ruled that the effects of the decision were sufficient grounds for their judgment.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    Corbyn says he'll govern for the 99%.

    About 0.5% of UK citizens work in pharma or life sci...

    That policy is compatible only with no deal Brexit.
    Which makes him and the ERGers interesting bedfellows.
    I'd say they deserve each other, but unfortunately the rest of us have them both as well.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Not to support the suite of policies being talked about today, but didn't Corbyn also say something about free care? Could be you lose on the one hand and gain on the other.
  • Options

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    That combination is so terrible that I daren't even think too much about it.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1176546376945143808
    The funny thing was that was the biggest political issue like, for years, when it happened.

    We had people on here getting angry about it for days on end.
    Honestly George, the Treasury, and pretty much everyone who worked on the budget thought the cut in the higher rate of tax would dominate the reaction to the budget and were bemused and unprepared for the entire focus to be on pasties and caravans.
    That was because it was such a good budget.

    I appreciate that I'll get a lot of derision for saying that, but it's true. It really was a good budget (as subsequent economic data showed), so the opposition and media lumped on to these tiny details, of purely technical interest, since they had nothing else to criticise. What's more, the pasty tax was absolutely fair - Greggs had been 'avin' a larf.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    Corbyn says he'll govern for the 99%.

    About 0.5% of UK citizens work in pharma or life sci...

    That policy is compatible only with no deal Brexit.
    Which makes him and the ERGers interesting bedfellows.
    Do you think at some point that anyone might twig that no deal has been what he has been seeking all along?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyhoo, Trump likely to be impeached, what larks.

    I feel sorry for @Stark_Dawning having his avatar stolen! :D
    I'll change it back now.
    I always liked that photo of Dave
    I keep on meaning to do a thread comparing No Dealers to Pétain.

    Both made their people suffer when they should have been heroes.
    Great War or 1940s? (I know, I know, he did a lot to restore morale amongst the poilus after the mutinies in the trenches).
    Both, I find Pétain a fascinating character.

    I think he was given a hospital pass in 1940 yet he made a terrible decision worse.
    as I sometimes remark France surrendered it independence to Germany in1940 and nothing has changed in the intervening 79 years,
    I am sure that is an attempt to be amusing, but it really is a poor attempt. Being anti-French is really rather lazy for a nice chap like you.
    Im not anti french, Im a francorealist.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    Typical commie wanting spoon fed by the state, will just mean people out on the street. Beggar off to Venezuela or China if you want such crap.
    Uh oh, someone's a bit sensitive about their rentier empire being undermined.
    I can confirm a Corbyn Government would commandeer all excess property of all people called Malc and give homes to all Labour voters
    Nothing for me then.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    There are plenty of people classed as "buy to let" that aren't really. I had to move from one city to another so am having to rent out my flat. Should people like me be clobbered with ridiculous taxes and unable to pay rent, or else have to sell in a fire sale in a depressed market?
    Same position here.

    What do we think happens to rents, when supply of property for rent is massively reduced?
    Rents will go down. The properties dont disappear, they are either bought by another landlord (no change) or a former tenant becoming an owner.

    The tenants who become owners will tend to be the better off tenants. Without them around the remaining landlords will have to drop prices to keep their properties occupied from the remaining tenants who have less income.
    It only works like that at the margin. When public policy changes cause one side or the other to change behaviour en masse, the effects can be quite dramatic in the short term.

    Also, demand for property to buy is much more related to supply and demand for mortgage finance, than anything else.
    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.
    You are aware that the price of lending is based on risk. Whether to a landlord, a commercial entity or indeed a government. If you are suggesting a bank, state owned or not, lends money not based on risk then they won’t be in business for very long. In the case of a state owned bank those young people you are so concerned about will find themselves subsidising those fail to pay their loans back. As will everyone.
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Hilarity on Twitter though on this - McDonnell calls on Tories to oust Boris presumably to avoid a GE. Its pointed out Raab is first secretary of state, Labour calling for DominIc Raab to be PM!

    Eh? Just because he's First Secretary of State doesn't mean he would get picked to be the next PM by the Tories. That's not the case even when we had a Deputy PM, precedence in government hierarchies might not translate to being better able to command the confidence of the House.
    If Boris dies tomorrow, Raab is next in line
    There is not a line of succession for him to be next in line for. It may be that based on seniority and politics he is chosen to be the next PM in that situation, but there is no unequivocal pecking order such that someone else might not get chosen instead.
    What would happen is there would be an emergency cabinet and an alternative interim PM proposed.
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    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    edited September 2019
    From the Guardian < Newsflash: It’s all gone wrong for Northern Ireland bus-maker Wrightbus.

    Sky News is reporting that Wrightbus, maker of London’s ‘Boris Bus’, will fall into administration on Wednesday.

    Deloitte are expected to be appointed as administrators, putting 1,300 jobs at risk.

    Sky’s Mark Kleinman says:

    Sources close to one of the bidders said on Tuesday evening that the appointment of Deloitte was “almost certain” to happen within 24 hours, putting about 1300 jobs at risk.

    The news will represent a devastating blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, with the prospects of Wrightbus being salvaged in its current form now understood to be remote

    The move means Wrightbus failed in a last-minute dash to find a buyer, following weeks of talks.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,534
    Danny565 said:

    ITV headlines not buying the semantics from Team Johnson

    "The Supreme Court rules that Boris Johnson abused his power and misled the Queen"

    My reading of the SC judgement is that they carefully didn't say he had misled the queen. It's a quite important point - the difference perhaps between resigning and not.

  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    There are plenty of people classed as "buy to let" that aren't really. I had to move from one city to another so am having to rent out my flat. Should people like me be clobbered with ridiculous taxes and unable to pay rent, or else have to sell in a fire sale in a depressed market?
    Same position here.

    What do we think happens to rents, when supply of property for rent is massively reduced?
    Rents will go down. The properties dont disappear, they are either bought by another landlord (no change) or a former tenant becoming an owner.

    The tenants who become owners will tend to be the better off tenants. Without them around the remaining landlords will have to drop prices to keep their properties occupied from the remaining tenants who have less income.
    It only works like that at the margin. When public policy changes cause one side or the other to change behaviour en masse, the effects can be quite dramatic in the short term.

    Also, demand for property to buy is much more related to supply and demand for mortgage finance, than anything else.
    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.
    You are aware that the price of lending is based on risk. Whether to a landlord, a commercial entity or indeed a government. If you are suggesting a bank, state owned or not, lends money not based on risk then they won’t be in business for very long. In the case of a state owned bank those young people you are so concerned about will find themselves subsidising those fail to pay their loans back. As will everyone.
    You're right about the reasons, but the results are unjust.

    "Free to those who can afford it, very expensive to those who can't" springs to mind.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Looks like the dam has broken on an Impeachment Inquiry.

    UK or USA?
    Adam Price who tried to impeach Tony Blair for Iraq is now Leader of Plaid Cymru. He pointed out today that at the time Boris Johnson wrote an article supporting the idea.
    Adam Price is likely to be the first leader out after a General Election.

    With Plaid Cymru 2/3 Remain and 1/3 Leave, I cannot conceive of a stupider policy for Plaid Cymru than Immolation for the greater good of Jo Swinson.

    I could easily see Plaid Cymru reduced to a single seat after the GE.

    Whatever interest Adam Price had in open Government has long gone. He led Plaid Cymru into blocking publication of the report on the death of Carl Sergeant today. Thanks to Adam, details of this murky affair will remain murky.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Hilarity on Twitter though on this - McDonnell calls on Tories to oust Boris presumably to avoid a GE. Its pointed out Raab is first secretary of state, Labour calling for DominIc Raab to be PM!

    Eh? Just because he's First Secretary of State doesn't mean he would get picked to be the next PM by the Tories. That's not the case even when we had a Deputy PM, precedence in government hierarchies might not translate to being better able to command the confidence of the House.
    If Boris dies tomorrow, Raab is next in line
    Yes Raab is almost certainly next Tory leader when Boris goes, he has more Tory membership support than any other potential candidate including Javid and more MP backing than Patel
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,721
    algarkirk said:

    Danny565 said:

    ITV headlines not buying the semantics from Team Johnson

    "The Supreme Court rules that Boris Johnson abused his power and misled the Queen"

    My reading of the SC judgement is that they carefully didn't say he had misled the queen. It's a quite important point - the difference perhaps between resigning and not.

    You'd need to know what Mr J's legal advice was - and then what he told HM - to know if he had knowingly misled the queen. That material was not provided in evidence, was it? So they could not discuss the issue one way or another. NB though, they didnt' say he didn't fib to the Sovereign.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    From the Guardian < Newsflash: It’s all gone wrong for Northern Ireland bus-maker Wrightbus.

    Sky News is reporting that Wrightbus, maker of London’s ‘Boris Bus’, will fall into administration on Wednesday.

    Deloitte are expected to be appointed as administrators, putting 1,300 jobs at risk.

    Sky’s Mark Kleinman says:

    Sources close to one of the bidders said on Tuesday evening that the appointment of Deloitte was “almost certain” to happen within 24 hours, putting about 1300 jobs at risk.

    The news will represent a devastating blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, with the prospects of Wrightbus being salvaged in its current form now understood to be remote

    The move means Wrightbus failed in a last-minute dash to find a buyer, following weeks of talks.

    Bamford of JCB fame was slotted to buy it but couldnt agree on the rent with the landlord. Odds are it will be bought after debts and some jobs are removed.
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    nico67 said:

    Leavers wanted sovereignty and that’s exactly what they’ve got .

    British judges deciding on British law . What’s not to like unless of course the decision doesn’t go your way!

    I agree that this is the right decision as was the first Miller case. I still genuinely don't know what Boris was trying to achieve with such a provocative and legally dubious (at the time) act.

    But one should not confuse the actions and intentions of the judges - which was to uphold the law as they understand it - with the actions and intentions of those opposing the Government. They have only one aim which is to prevent Brexit. All this talk of giving power to Parliament is so much hot air. They certainly wouldn't be doing this if Parliament were more in favour if Brexit. Then they would be scrabbling around to find other ways to stop it.

    Still. The ruling is good and closes another constitutional loophole before someone more competent than Boris gets a chance to abuse it.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Hilarity on Twitter though on this - McDonnell calls on Tories to oust Boris presumably to avoid a GE. Its pointed out Raab is first secretary of state, Labour calling for DominIc Raab to be PM!

    Eh? Just because he's First Secretary of State doesn't mean he would get picked to be the next PM by the Tories. That's not the case even when we had a Deputy PM, precedence in government hierarchies might not translate to being better able to command the confidence of the House.
    If Boris dies tomorrow, Raab is next in line
    Yes Raab is almost certainly next Tory leader when Boris goes, he has more Tory membership support than any other potential candidate including Javid and more MP backing than Patel
    He’s also an imbecile so will fit in well.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    algarkirk said:

    Danny565 said:

    ITV headlines not buying the semantics from Team Johnson

    "The Supreme Court rules that Boris Johnson abused his power and misled the Queen"

    My reading of the SC judgement is that they carefully didn't say he had misled the queen. It's a quite important point - the difference perhaps between resigning and not.

    Yes, the judgement effectively says that the reasons for the prorogation are irrelevant, it was the effect that mattered.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A possible line we may see taken is thus (in terms of any fightback)
    Re parliamentary sovereignty, what is the protection against a rogue parliament and a rogue speaker? The electorate. What are this parliament doing? Shutting out the electorate.
    I have no comment on it other than it's a line they may well take in the us v them battle.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    spudgfsh said:

    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
    because everyone will be doing that and house prices will go down
    My point was that Nichomar could easily sell his property for 100% of the market value right now, if it's such a burden to him. I find the fact that he doesn't, yet would be willing to take 80% of the market value as dictated to him by the (metaphorical - hopefully) point of a government gun - bizarre.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,945
    Noo said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    Typical commie wanting spoon fed by the state, will just mean people out on the street. Beggar off to Venezuela or China if you want such crap.
    Uh oh, someone's a bit sensitive about their rentier empire being undermined.
    I hardly think my one flat rented to two pensioners without rent increase for many years is making me a fortune. I am only keeping it for my grandsons.
  • Options


    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.

    Err:

    Buy-to-let mortgages are a lot like ordinary mortgages, but with some key differences:

    - The fees tend to be much higher.

    - Interest rates on buy-to-let mortgages are usually higher.

    - The minimum deposit for a buy-to-let mortgage is usually 25% of the property’s value (although it can vary between 20-40%).


    https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/buy-to-let-mortgages

    And now you can't even count it all as a business expense, and you pay more stamp duty, and you pay CGT if you do sell.

    If that's a 'state handout to the already wealthy', I'd like to see what you think a penalty is.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    Byronic said:

    One possibility we are ignoring: what if the E.U. decides to offer an extension (or ‘impose’ one under the terms of the Surrender Act).. and they decide it will be 5 years?

    Cat pigeon collision.

    We could just Revoke and re issue A50. This would shorten the ‘extension’ to just two years.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,945

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    There are plenty of people classed as "buy to let" that aren't really. I had to move from one city to another so am having to rent out my flat. Should people like me be clobbered with ridiculous taxes and unable to pay rent, or else have to sell in a fire sale in a depressed market?
    Same position here.

    What do we think happens to rents, when supply of property for rent is massively reduced?
    Rents will go down. The properties dont disappear, they are either bought by another landlord (no change) or a former tenant becoming an owner.

    The tenants who become owners will tend to be the better off tenants. Without them around the remaining landlords will have to drop prices to keep their properties occupied from the remaining tenants who have less income.
    It only works like that at the margin. When public policy changes cause one side or the other to change behaviour en masse, the effects can be quite dramatic in the short term.

    Also, demand for property to buy is much more related to supply and demand for mortgage finance, than anything else.
    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.
    You really are stupid, having lots of debt does not make you rich.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
    Because I don’t want to evict the tenants who have rented my house to give their children stability with their education.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Boris will resign as PM by October 31st rather than extend if a new Brexit Deal has not been agreed with the EU and approved by Parliament by then and given the LDs will vote down a Corbyn government as will Tory anti No Deal rebels only a PM acceptable to the LDs and Tory rebels will do. That probably means PM Ken Clarke or maybe PM Harman or PM Beckett by the end of October.

    Boris will be Leader of the Opposition regardless with Corbyn forced to prop up a Clarke or Harman premiership until extension has been passed and Boris then pushes a VONC he will have to support

    When's the referendum on the backstop in Northern Ireland?
    Requires a Tory majority after the next general election free of the DUP
    At which point you will switch to the LDs.

    Plus if Boris leads the Tories into opposition he will be deposed as he will appeal neither to the brexiter loons on the one hand or the trying to keep it together proper Conservatives on the other.

    As I said you will long have departed to the LDs.
    I respect democracy and Boris would have leavers largely united behind him in opposition against the government of diehard Remainer traitors to democracy
    You really are an offensive little pillock. There are many people who support/supported remain who have served their country in the armed forces, and they don't need to be accused of being traitors by a pathetic little pipsqueak like you. Boris Johnson is the biggest threat to democracy and the rule of law that I can recall in my 40 odd years of following British politics. The other big threat is the ignorant blind unquestioning loyalty of fools like you. You are the type of person that despots rely on. Your posts are utterly ridiculous and your views are completely beneath contempt.
    There is a difference between voting Remain and refusing to respect the winning Leave vote
  • Options

    A possible line we may see taken is thus (in terms of any fightback)
    Re parliamentary sovereignty, what is the protection against a rogue parliament and a rogue speaker? The electorate. What are this parliament doing? Shutting out the electorate.
    I have no comment on it other than it's a line they may well take in the us v them battle.

    That would only be true if they were preventing an election after June 2022.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    nico67 said:

    Leavers wanted sovereignty and that’s exactly what they’ve got .

    British judges deciding on British law . What’s not to like unless of course the decision doesn’t go your way!

    I agree that this is the right decision as was the first Miller case. I still genuinely don't know what Boris was trying to achieve with such a provocative and legally dubious (at the time) act.

    But one should not confuse the actions and intentions of the judges - which was to uphold the law as they understand it - with the actions and intentions of those opposing the Government. They have only one aim which is to prevent Brexit. All this talk of giving power to Parliament is so much hot air. They certainly wouldn't be doing this if Parliament were more in favour if Brexit. Then they would be scrabbling around to find other ways to stop it.

    Still. The ruling is good and closes another constitutional loophole before someone more competent than Boris gets a chance to abuse it.
    I genuinely wondered if Boris is announced the prorogation in order to get no confidenced, as it had just been made clear that the various parties would use legislation to force him to ask for an extension. But it didnt' work, as they refuse to kick him out.

    It's probably not true that was the plan, but he has totally trapped himself. Utterly powerless, and waiting for the sword of damocles to drop.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,945

    Noo said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    @JosiasJessop @noneoftheabove

    :smile:

    Yes, sorry, I usually avoid the term 'ordinary people'. It's silly.

    What I meant by it in that post was people not particularly well off.

    Like checkout staff at Tesco. Just as an example.

    the Jezzaplan will make it a bad time to be a housebuilder or a buy for let landlord.
    Re buy to let landlords, so it should!
    Typical commie wanting spoon fed by the state, will just mean people out on the street. Beggar off to Venezuela or China if you want such crap.
    Uh oh, someone's a bit sensitive about their rentier empire being undermined.
    I can confirm a Corbyn Government would commandeer all excess property of all people called Malc and give homes to all Labour voters
    That would still not persuade me to vote Labour John, especially the morons in Scotland, they could not run a bath.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Leavers wanted sovereignty and that’s exactly what they’ve got .

    British judges deciding on British law . What’s not to like unless of course the decision doesn’t go your way!

    I agree that this is the right decision as was the first Miller case. I still genuinely don't know what Boris was trying to achieve with such a provocative and legally dubious (at the time) act.

    But one should not confuse the actions and intentions of the judges - which was to uphold the law as they understand it - with the actions and intentions of those opposing the Government. They have only one aim which is to prevent Brexit. All this talk of giving power to Parliament is so much hot air. They certainly wouldn't be doing this if Parliament were more in favour if Brexit. Then they would be scrabbling around to find other ways to stop it.

    Still. The ruling is good and closes another constitutional loophole before someone more competent than Boris gets a chance to abuse it.
    I appreciate your comments . Whatever side of the debate we’re on today’s decision is important longer term to stop any future PM from going rogue .

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896

    From the Guardian < Newsflash: It’s all gone wrong for Northern Ireland bus-maker Wrightbus.

    Sky News is reporting that Wrightbus, maker of London’s ‘Boris Bus’, will fall into administration on Wednesday.

    Deloitte are expected to be appointed as administrators, putting 1,300 jobs at risk.

    Sky’s Mark Kleinman says:

    Sources close to one of the bidders said on Tuesday evening that the appointment of Deloitte was “almost certain” to happen within 24 hours, putting about 1300 jobs at risk.

    The news will represent a devastating blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, with the prospects of Wrightbus being salvaged in its current form now understood to be remote

    The move means Wrightbus failed in a last-minute dash to find a buyer, following weeks of talks.

    Bamford of JCB fame was slotted to buy it but couldnt agree on the rent with the landlord. Odds are it will be bought after debts and some jobs are removed.
    Good luck to them, hope any administration is short and doesn’t cost too many jobs.

    They still have a contract to build buses for TfL?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,945


    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.

    Err:

    Buy-to-let mortgages are a lot like ordinary mortgages, but with some key differences:

    - The fees tend to be much higher.

    - Interest rates on buy-to-let mortgages are usually higher.

    - The minimum deposit for a buy-to-let mortgage is usually 25% of the property’s value (although it can vary between 20-40%).


    https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/buy-to-let-mortgages

    And now you can't even count it all as a business expense, and you pay more stamp duty, and you pay CGT if you do sell.

    If that's a 'state handout to the already wealthy', I'd like to see what you think a penalty is.
    Yes and many get their houses trashed by dodgy tenants.
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    nico67 said:

    Leavers wanted sovereignty and that’s exactly what they’ve got .

    British judges deciding on British law . What’s not to like unless of course the decision doesn’t go your way!

    I agree that this is the right decision as was the first Miller case. I still genuinely don't know what Boris was trying to achieve with such a provocative and legally dubious (at the time) act.

    But one should not confuse the actions and intentions of the judges - which was to uphold the law as they understand it - with the actions and intentions of those opposing the Government. They have only one aim which is to prevent Brexit. (Snip)
    It's far more grey than that in some cases, isn't it? Take Rory Stewart. Once a remainer, but about the only Conservative aside from May willing to really sell May's deal - a deal you also supported (although probably reluctantly) as being Brexit. He was supporting Brexit.

    Yet he got the whip withdrawn for voting to stop a no-deal Brexit - i.e. opposing the government.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
    Ophthalmologist.

    99.9% of people do not realize the first ‘h’ is between the first ‘p’ and ‘t’
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    A possible line we may see taken is thus (in terms of any fightback)
    Re parliamentary sovereignty, what is the protection against a rogue parliament and a rogue speaker? The electorate. What are this parliament doing? Shutting out the electorate.
    I have no comment on it other than it's a line they may well take in the us v them battle.

    That would only be true if they were preventing an election after June 2022.
    I didn't say it was true, I said it's a line they may take. It's no more true than some of the more hyperbolic stuff from the opposition, it's a political line to take. And would possibly resonate. People dont like politicians.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

    taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

    Money forest is blooming
    It always amazes me that the left/hard left don't realise that they can put tax rates up as much as they want for the top end but it doesn't always raise more tax.
    Do you reckon any of them have ever even heard of Arthur Laffer?
    He of the unquantified and unproven curve?

    Yer 'avin' a laffer aren't you!?
    At what point do you think punitive tax rates cause people to either do less work, restructure their earnings or move abroad?

    40% 50%, 60%, 70%?

    How’s about corporate tax rates? Where should the U.K. fit into the table?

    UAE 0%
    Ireland 12.5%
    Singapore 17%
    Switzerland 18%
    USA 21%
    France 31%

    We have experience in the 70's under labour where the 83% rate had a significant impact on the amount of tax raised. during the 80s and up until GB raised it the 40% tax rate did bring in more overall tax. There is limited evidence that the change from 50% to 45% did make a difference.
    Indeed. There’s good evidence that the personal allowance withdrawal at £100k salary, a 63% rate, is leading to many professionals working less to stay under £100k (or topping up pensions allowances instead).

    I think 40-45% is about the top of the curve, certainly 50% is a symbolic point at which people start phoning their accountants.
    That's where I'm at.

    I was better off not renting my house out this year, such was the craziness of the tax, so it's now vacant pending a sale.

    We have Osborne to thank for this.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
    Ophthalmologist.

    99.9% of people do not realize the first ‘h’ is between the first ‘p’ and ‘t’
    so I've been pronouncing it wrong then...
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
    Fuchsia. Easy if you know it is named after Leonhart Fuchs, otherwise fuschia is so common it isn't even auto corrected.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    nichomar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
    Because I don’t want to evict the tenants who have rented my house to give their children stability with their education.
    Then why not offer to sell it to them for 100% of its value?

    The issue here really is compulsion. You're free to give your property away for 20% less than it's worth, which for you might be an act of charity, for someone less fortunate would be madness. The point is you're free to choose. Under Corbyn, you wouldn't be. What if he decided on 50% of the market value? or 20%? or 0%?

  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
    Ophthalmologist.

    99.9% of people do not realize the first ‘h’ is between the first ‘p’ and ‘t’
    so I've been pronouncing it wrong then...
    My dad is a (retired) ophthalmologist and he pronounces it wrongly too
  • Options

    Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

    We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

    That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

    Anyone with a brain knows Corbyn is a hard Leaver.
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    nico67 said:

    Leavers wanted sovereignty and that’s exactly what they’ve got .

    British judges deciding on British law . What’s not to like unless of course the decision doesn’t go your way!

    I agree that this is the right decision as was the first Miller case. I still genuinely don't know what Boris was trying to achieve with such a provocative and legally dubious (at the time) act.

    But one should not confuse the actions and intentions of the judges - which was to uphold the law as they understand it - with the actions and intentions of those opposing the Government. They have only one aim which is to prevent Brexit. (Snip)
    It's far more grey than that in some cases, isn't it? Take Rory Stewart. Once a remainer, but about the only Conservative aside from May willing to really sell May's deal - a deal you also supported (although probably reluctantly) as being Brexit. He was supporting Brexit.

    Yet he got the whip withdrawn for voting to stop a no-deal Brexit - i.e. opposing the government.
    I was referring specifically to those opposing the Government in this court case.
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    TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
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    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    If only there were some film with a famous scene occuring in a bunker, where the main character rants and raves in a foreign language, German say, that we could use to satirise the situation, eg through the use of inaccurate but amusing English subtitles.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Today's unexpected weirdos goes those trying to get Boris is #peoplesprimeminister trending
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    30% is about the number you need to win a majority under FPTP...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    MikeL said:

    Could big drug companies just withdraw from the UK?

    What % of the market does the UK comprise?

    Might they just say "OK, we won't bother doing any business in the UK. Bye!"

    It wouldn't be overnight - there is a very large amount of infrastructure here.
    But it would move fairly rapidly in that direction.

    The border checks in Ireland to protect the EU pharmaceutical industry would be... interesting.

    Quite how this fits with 'closely aligned to the single market' is a two pipe problem - opium pipe, that is.
    Corbyn’s Speech makes it quite clear that he’s massively in favour of no deal Brexit, and I’m not sure all those fawning over him in the hall have worked that out yet.

    Most of what he’s proposing is completely against EU law and single market regulations.

    The stuff on IP is straight out of Venezuela.
    To rapturous applause in a hall full of members [ some of em in the shadow cabinet] who'd struggle to spell pharmaceuticals let alone have a clue how it all works.
    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.
    I'd expect most people in government to have mastered the basics of spelling and some economics!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2019

    That's where I'm at.

    I was better off not renting my house out this year, such was the craziness of the tax, so it's now vacant pending a sale.

    We have Osborne to thank for this.

    Darling, not Osborne (assuming you're referring to the withdrawal of personal allowances).
  • Options

    housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

    It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

    Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.
    Put you down as a maybe, Richard?
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    nichomar said:

    What level of market value are labour proposing selling buy to let’s to tenants? If it was 80% I’d be quite happy to be rid of the place and try and get rid of the money to my kids before it is all drained away paying for my wife’s inevitable care home costs when I’m no longer able to look after her.

    Why not sell it on the open market for 100% then?
    Because I don’t want to evict the tenants who have rented my house to give their children stability with their education.
    Then why not offer to sell it to them for 100% of its value?

    The issue here really is compulsion. You're free to give your property away for 20% less than it's worth, which for you might be an act of charity, for someone less fortunate would be madness. The point is you're free to choose. Under Corbyn, you wouldn't be. What if he decided on 50% of the market value? or 20%? or 0%?

    It would be nice to have the decision taken out of my hands, cop out I know but I think I’m saying that I’m not that worried by this labour policy but have serious concerns about many others.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Sandpit said:

    From the Guardian < Newsflash: It’s all gone wrong for Northern Ireland bus-maker Wrightbus.

    Sky News is reporting that Wrightbus, maker of London’s ‘Boris Bus’, will fall into administration on Wednesday.

    Deloitte are expected to be appointed as administrators, putting 1,300 jobs at risk.

    Sky’s Mark Kleinman says:

    Sources close to one of the bidders said on Tuesday evening that the appointment of Deloitte was “almost certain” to happen within 24 hours, putting about 1300 jobs at risk.

    The news will represent a devastating blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, with the prospects of Wrightbus being salvaged in its current form now understood to be remote

    The move means Wrightbus failed in a last-minute dash to find a buyer, following weeks of talks.

    Bamford of JCB fame was slotted to buy it but couldnt agree on the rent with the landlord. Odds are it will be bought after debts and some jobs are removed.
    Good luck to them, hope any administration is short and doesn’t cost too many jobs.

    They still have a contract to build buses for TfL?
    its a real kick for Ballymena the local town. They lost nearly 900 jobs when Gallahers the factory beside Wrightbus was closed so that the work could be transferred to Poland.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    Generalelectionnow trending on twitter
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,589


    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.

    Err:

    Buy-to-let mortgages are a lot like ordinary mortgages, but with some key differences:

    - The fees tend to be much higher.

    - Interest rates on buy-to-let mortgages are usually higher.

    - The minimum deposit for a buy-to-let mortgage is usually 25% of the property’s value (although it can vary between 20-40%).


    https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/buy-to-let-mortgages

    And now you can't even count it all as a business expense, and you pay more stamp duty, and you pay CGT if you do sell.

    If that's a 'state handout to the already wealthy', I'd like to see what you think a penalty is.
    Jeremy Corbyn.
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    TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    HYUFD said:

    Generalelectionnow trending on twitter

    2022 is soon enough for the remainers.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Been at a conference all day. Has anything happened?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    That 30% is more than enough to shore up the core Tory vote and 49% is still less than half the voters and almost identical to the 48% who voted Remain in 2016
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    That 30% is more than enough to shore up the core Tory vote and 49% is still less than half the voters and almost identical to the 48% who voted Remain in 2016
    Black Knight strategy
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    kyf_100 said:

    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    30% is about the number you need to win a majority under FPTP...
    15% Tories 15% BXP
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,589
    The pharmaceutical industry is more than significant in Ireland, too, accounting for over 10% of GDP:
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sponsoredcontent/special-report-pharma-and-bio-science-sectors-a-national-success-story-920070.html

    Has anyone suggested how the new policy is compatible with either aspect of their Brexit policy, soft deal or remain ?

    I can’t see how it could possibly be.
  • Options

    That's where I'm at.

    I was better off not renting my house out this year, such was the craziness of the tax, so it's now vacant pending a sale.

    We have Osborne to thank for this.

    Darling, not Osborne (assuming you're referring to the withdrawal of personal allowances).
    Fair enough.

    And don't call me Darling.
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    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
  • Options
    Ostracised? By whom? The Labour Party? That other party in competition to hers?

    It really is remarkable the number of Labour politicians who consider the Lib Dems a wholly owned subsidiary of theirs, and believe they should be chastened when they don't behave.
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    TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    Need an election for that - 2022 most likely date now surely ?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited September 2019
    I have to hand it to Boris Johnson. His incompetence is on an impressively epic scale. He has managed to come a cropper with every British institution - parliament, the Supreme Court and the Queen - with his prorogation wheeze, while achieving the precise opposite of what he set out to to do.

    May was merely mediocre.
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    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyhoo, Trump likely to be impeached, what larks.

    I feel sorry for @Stark_Dawning having his avatar stolen! :D
    I'll change it back now.
    I always liked that photo of Dave
    I keep on meaning to do a thread comparing No Dealers to Pétain.

    Both made their people suffer when they should have been heroes.
    Great War or 1940s? (I know, I know, he did a lot to restore morale amongst the poilus after the mutinies in the trenches).
    Both, I find Pétain a fascinating character.

    I think he was given a hospital pass in 1940 yet he made a terrible decision worse.
    In November 1942, Vichy forces opened fire on Anglo-US forces in North Africa. But they didn't do anything to resist the Germans taking over the Unoccupied Zone, except for scuttling the French Fleet three weeks later.
    They're like the ERG hardliners or the Brexit Party.

    More interested in scuppering their own side out of a warped and mistaken sense of honour than defeating the common enemy.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    Has anyone done the basic arithmetic (ie counting) to work out when GE would in theory be.

    If Corbyn waits until after Thurs 31 Oct:

    1) If Lab then support motion for a GE on say Mon 4 Nov, 5 weeks from the next Thurs (7 Nov) will be Thurs 12 Dec.

    2) But suppose Govt doesn't support motion and Lab then goes VONC route. It's then a minimum of 7 weeks from Thurs 7 Nov which is …………. Thurs 26 Dec! Which is obviously impossible! Which then means going into January.

    But wait a minute - that would be within a month of new Brexit deadline of 31 Jan - so would the Commons then need to decide to extend again before dissolving for the GE?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
    Stop going against the will of the people.
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    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    That combination is so terrible that I daren't even think too much about it.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1176546376945143808
    The funny thing was that was the biggest political issue like, for years, when it happened.

    We had people on here getting angry about it for days on end.
    Honestly George, the Treasury, and pretty much everyone who worked on the budget thought the cut in the higher rate of tax would dominate the reaction to the budget and were bemused and unprepared for the entire focus to be on pasties and caravans.
    It was, a bit.

    That also polled badly for months afterwards and stopped him cutting it back down to 40%, as he should have.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't most people struggle to spell pharmaceuticals? It's like manoeuvre or Taoiseach.

    Mischievous for me. Amongst others but that is the big one.
    Ophthalmologist.

    99.9% of people do not realize the first ‘h’ is between the first ‘p’ and ‘t’
    Ophthalmologisavers doesn't quite have the same ring .... :sunglasses:
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
    it'll be called as soon as there's either a deal through parliament or an extension to A50
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    FF43 said:

    I have to hand it to Boris Johnson. His incompetence is on an impressively epic scale. He has managed to come a cropper with every British institution - parliament, the Supreme Court and the Queen - with his prorogation wheeze, while achieving the precise opposite of what he set out to to do.

    May was merely mediocre.

    When will he get to work on the Church of England?
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
    How?

    It’s a PM with minus twenty something from majority, partly his own making believing advisors telling him he was about to win good majority in imminent election. How exactly does the 2022 election destroy lid dems and labour and the conservatives in good shape for the 2022 election?
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    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
    Stop going against the will of the people.
    I think that is you old chap. The people want an election. It is the scum in Parliament who are denying them.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Imagine if Jeremy Corbyn potentially had an extra-marital affair with someone who he then funnelled over one hundred thousands pounds of public money to. Do you think the BBC News channel would be ignoring it?
  • Options

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    That combination is so terrible that I daren't even think too much about it.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1176546376945143808
    The funny thing was that was the biggest political issue like, for years, when it happened.

    We had people on here getting angry about it for days on end.
    Honestly George, the Treasury, and pretty much everyone who worked on the budget thought the cut in the higher rate of tax would dominate the reaction to the budget and were bemused and unprepared for the entire focus to be on pasties and caravans.
    It was, a bit.

    That also polled badly for months afterwards and stopped him cutting it back down to 40%, as he should have.
    Thatcher thought 50% was the right level, Lawson (of unsustainable boom and pretending climate change isn't real fame) insisted on 40%. I think Maggie was right on this one.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone done the basic arithmetic (ie counting) to work out when GE would in theory be.

    If Corbyn waits until after Thurs 31 Oct:

    1) If Lab then support motion for a GE on say Mon 4 Nov, 5 weeks from the next Thurs (7 Nov) will be Thurs 12 Dec.

    2) But suppose Govt doesn't support motion and Lab then goes VONC route. It's then a minimum of 7 weeks from Thurs 7 Nov which is …………. Thurs 26 Dec! Which is obviously impossible! Which then means going into January.

    But wait a minute - that would be within a month of new Brexit deadline of 31 Jan - so would the Commons then need to decide to extend again before dissolving for the GE?

    it has struck me as odd and I always thought that they should have called for a GE on the first day BJ was PM.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    If we had an opposition leader with a moral compass, some brains to think with and the ability to string a sentence together, this government would be out on its arse before the day is out.

    As it is it will shamelessly ignore the decision and probably win the next GE. God help us.
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    kyf_100 said:

    theakes said:

    Public say Judges right by 49 - 30%. (YouGov) Yet Downing Street seems to be in their own bunker, with everyone closing in on all sides.

    30% is about the number you need to win a majority under FPTP...
    15% Tories 15% BXP

    No one knows what happens to Tory share and Boris ratings when we don’t brexit this year. There’s got to be an argument that his supporters won’t blame him just those who thwarted him. But yeah, Farage is going to mop the Tory vote up isn’t he, at least as far as polling goes.
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    Mortgage finance is another issue where the system is biased against the young. For the same occupier, the state owned banks will lend more to a landlord than an owner using the occupiers income. It is hugely unfair and a state handout to the already wealthy at the expense of the young.

    Err:

    Buy-to-let mortgages are a lot like ordinary mortgages, but with some key differences:

    - The fees tend to be much higher.

    - Interest rates on buy-to-let mortgages are usually higher.

    - The minimum deposit for a buy-to-let mortgage is usually 25% of the property’s value (although it can vary between 20-40%).


    https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/buy-to-let-mortgages

    And now you can't even count it all as a business expense, and you pay more stamp duty, and you pay CGT if you do sell.

    If that's a 'state handout to the already wealthy', I'd like to see what you think a penalty is.
    Imagine someone earning 50k willing to spend 2k a month on rent but preferring to buy a house. The banks will lend them around 200k if they want to buy.

    A landlord can borrow up to £331,034 based on that persons rent of 2k per month.

    https://www.landc.co.uk/calculators/buy-to-let-mortgage-calculator/

    Obvious outcome: Landlord outbids the tenant

    Longer term outcome: The young have little stake in society and turn to Corbynism.

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Leaver vox pop on the Beeb -

    "Look 31 October we're out. Deal or no Deal I don't care. We've done it before and we can do it again."

    And these people have a vote.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,625

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the first time in my life I'm actually looking at emigrating.

    No Deal and Corbyn are going to painfully feck this country like dry anal never before, and I'm one of life's optimists.

    The Commons has just blocked No Deal and all the polling shows it is a Tory PM agreeing further extension that leads to PM Corbyn not No Deal
    Can’t have no deal until 2022 now unless there is a a long extension.
    We can if the Tories win a majority on a Deal or No Deal ticket
    In what election?
    Not allowing an election for the next 2 years would utterly destroy Labour and the Lib Dems.
    Stop going against the will of the people.
    I think that is you old chap. The people want an election. It is the scum in Parliament who are denying them.
    Do the people want an election? Is there any recent polling on this?

    I don't find any enthusiasm for one, more apathy and boredom with the whole rotten business.
This discussion has been closed.