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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    A reminder about support for impeaching Nixon

    https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1119347084187115521?s=19
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    BBC News - Boris and Brenda have had a chat. No news yet on whether Brenda has followed Lady Hales and handed the Prime Minister his testicles, albeit on a charming silver salver.

    Presumably that’s just the horse’s doofers for the full-on face-to-face bollocking she’s going to give him?
    Queenie - "Don't sit down Prime Minister. You'll find it more comfortable that way in the coming weeks until the stitches come out."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent
    If a PM can’t be nominated from the rabble sitting opposite the current government, then does she have any choice left but to dissolve Parliament?

    In practice they’ll have to nominate someone, if they want that letter sent to Brussels. Even if that person resigns a day later.

    Yes, the FTPA is the most almighty constitutional fcukup. Thanks Nick Clegg for that one!
    The FTPA says it cannot otherwise be dissolved. Even if she wanted to she couldn't.
  • JackW said:

    BBC News - Boris and Brenda have had a chat. No news yet on whether Brenda has followed Lady Hales and handed the Prime Minister his testicles, albeit on a charming silver salver.

    Presumably that’s just the horse’s doofers for the full-on face-to-face bollocking she’s going to give him?
    God, I hope so.
  • justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    We know three things:

    1) Nobody can credibly advise the Queen that Corbyn commands the House.

    2) The logical next cab off the rank, if you were advising her, is the Father of the House.

    3) It sounds like Labour won’t then support him.

    The best route (for the PM) is therefore for Boris is to engineer the SNP/LibDems being able to no confidence him, and for Tories to abstain. I think that would have the effect of resigning in the old days, since with no Gvt then formed, it would force an election. (I agree that if he just resigns with no obvious successor, we have a real anomaly and the Queen in an awful position since it’s not obvious there’s any way to trigger an election outside of FTPA).

    It’s a fairly obvious wheeze though, so the Libs and SNP will Presumably not push a vote.

    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    Main conclusion? The FTPA is shit.

    Edited because I can’t write, apparently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GIN1138 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I bet reform of the judiciary will feature in the next majority govt

    I expect the next Tory manifesto will include US Supreme Court style hearings for new top judges
    You really want that shit from the US?
    Not really, but surely its the natual conclussion of having having a "Supreme Court" ?

    Just as an elected HoL is the natural end point of removing the hereditary peers and filling it up with cronies instead?

    A fully federal UK should also be the end point of devolution as well?

    All these things seem to flow naturally from the New Labour reforms... Its just taking us a long time to get there...
    I’ve always believed to an extent that our courts at all levels operate free of politics, that it wouldn’t matter about the color of his skin as to wether he was convicted or not but would be based on the evidence, especially in today’s environment. Johnson’s claim that he thinks the judgment wrong is undermining one of the key principles that used to be on the back of a Conservative party membership card ie ‘that there is separation between the executive and the judiciary’ essential for good government
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    Qui tacet consentit?

    The HoC had many opportunities to express it's lack of confidence in him. They didn't, therefore implicitly showing their confidence in him.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    RobD said:


    The FTPA says it cannot otherwise be dissolved. Even if she wanted to she couldn't.

    eventually one of two things will happen.

    1) someone becomes temporary PM and then calls a VoNC vote
    2) they will decide that no-one can be called as PM and they vote for a GE.
  • JackW said:

    BBC News - Boris and Brenda have had a chat. No news yet on whether Brenda has followed Lady Hales and handed the Prime Minister his testicles, albeit on a charming silver salver.

    Presumably that’s just the horse’s doofers for the full-on face-to-face bollocking she’s going to give him?
    God, I hope so.
    Given that she famously gave Margaret Thatcher what for at length over the invasion of Grenada, I expect so.
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    Qui tacet consentit?

    The HoC had many opportunities to express it's lack of confidence in him. They didn't, therefore implicitly showing their confidence in him.
    Well it hasn’t. For starters, it has only sat for just over a week since he became Prime Minister. For seconds, only Jeremy Corbyn has the right to lay a vote of no confidence in him - the other 648 have had no chance to test this. And for thirds, he’s lost every vote so far. You’d struggle to claim implicit consent from that.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
    as far as I understand it the only times that there is no PM are

    1) the ten minutes or so between handover
    2) the time it takes following the death of a PM for a successor to be named.
  • She made his anus horribilis.
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    Yes. Or rather, it doesn't matter whether we know who these sources are, but it is just plain insutling the Boris and his advisers decide to throw some chum into the waters with some anonymous quotes and then spit in our faces as in person they claim of course they do not believe such things. It's incredibly blatant and pathetic and journalists shoudl stop indulging it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

  • spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    A VNOC under those circumstances would only arise if the Opposition decided to table it - it could decide not to do so in the same way that Corbyn has opted to date. An Affirmative VOC only arises if the previous PM has been forced to resign following a VNOC.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ab195 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    We know three things:

    1) Nobody can credibly advise the Queen that Corbyn commands the House.

    2) The logical next cab off the rank, if you were advising her, is the Father of the House.

    3) It sounds like Labour won’t then support him.

    The best route (for the PM) is therefore for Boris is to engineer the SNP/LibDems being able to no confidence him, and for Tories to abstain. I think that would have the effect of resigning in the old days, since with no Gvt then formed, it would force an election. (I agree that if he just resigns with no obvious successor, we have a real anomaly and the Queen in an awful position since it’s not obvious there’s any way to trigger an election outside of FTPA).

    It’s a fairly obvious wheeze though, so the Libs and SNP will Presumably not push a vote.

    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    Main conclusion? The FTPA is shit.

    Edited because I can’t write, apparently.
    In those circumstances, how do we avoid no deal?

  • Yorkcity said:

    Gabs2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Imagine if Jeremy Corbyn potentially had an extra-marital affair with someone who he then funnelled over one hundred thousands pounds of public money to. Do you think the BBC News channel would be ignoring it?

    No. The BBC has become a mouthpiece for the Tories . And Laura K managed to spin a SC loss into an advert for Bozo the champion of the people .
    She is a disgrace.
    Don't be ridiculous. Laura Kuensburg is a down the line impartial reporter. It is ridiculous how everyone sees the BBC as biased just because they don't report the news to their political preferences.
    Give over , she is impartial , the same way you are.
    We used to call Nick Robinson on here Toenails Robinson for similar "reasons".

    Goes with the turf.

  • Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I bet reform of the judiciary will feature in the next majority govt

    I expect the next Tory manifesto will include US Supreme Court style hearings for new top judges
    You really want that shit from the US?
    Notr really, but surely its the natual conclussion of having having a "Supreme Court" ?

    A name is just a name, it doesn't lead them to any particular destination, especially when whatever the consequences of today's ruling the balance of power between the institutions in this nation are still quite different to those of the United States.
    And more particularly since there is no constitution which allows our Supreme Court to reject legislation if properly enacted by Parliament.

    The US Supreme Court has become a means of entrenching partisan political advantage whatever the electorate might have to say about it at any given election.
    That situation simply cannot obtain over here - a simple Parliamentary majority can legislate to overrule our court.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    Shami a bit tipsy on Ch4 interview with Jon Snow. Nice to see.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    Qui tacet consentit?

    The HoC had many opportunities to express it's lack of confidence in him. They didn't, therefore implicitly showing their confidence in him.
    Well it hasn’t. For starters, it has only sat for just over a week since he became Prime Minister. For seconds, only Jeremy Corbyn has the right to lay a vote of no confidence in him - the other 648 have had no chance to test this. And for thirds, he’s lost every vote so far. You’d struggle to claim implicit consent from that.
    Not at all. It had that entire week you mentioned to act. He certainly has no command of any business of the House, but as the various commentators are making clear about leaving him to stew until such time as they decide to have a GE, the House is content to leave him there and as such technically has confidence in him. It's a fiction in all but technicality, but that's enough.
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
    The Queen then chooses someone, after taking soundings. If no one looks likely to command the confidence of the Commons, she will presumably give Jeremy Corbyn first go to prove her wrong. Whoever she chooses, the then leader of the opposition then has to decide whether to test their confidence.

    In practice it is more likely than not that he would keep his powder dry for the while.
  • justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    Please. The best helper for getting a Tory majority is Corbyn and his band of Stalinists.
  • kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    Qui tacet consentit?

    The HoC had many opportunities to express it's lack of confidence in him. They didn't, therefore implicitly showing their confidence in him.
    Well it hasn’t. For starters, it has only sat for just over a week since he became Prime Minister. For seconds, only Jeremy Corbyn has the right to lay a vote of no confidence in him - the other 648 have had no chance to test this. And for thirds, he’s lost every vote so far. You’d struggle to claim implicit consent from that.
    Not at all. It had that entire week you mentioned to act. He certainly has no command of any business of the House, but as the various commentators are making clear about leaving him to stew until such time as they decide to have a GE, the House is content to leave him there and as such technically has confidence in him. It's a fiction in all but technicality, but that's enough.
    The term you are looking for is placeholder.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent
    If a PM can’t be nominated from the rabble sitting opposite the current government, then does she have any choice left but to dissolve Parliament?

    In practice they’ll have to nominate someone, if they want that letter sent to Brussels. Even if that person resigns a day later.

    Yes, the FTPA is the most almighty constitutional fcukup. Thanks Nick Clegg for that one!
    The FTPA says it cannot otherwise be dissolved. Even if she wanted to she couldn't.
    Crap, yes you’re right. So if no-one could command the confidence of the House, HM through the Privy Council would have to ask Parliament to dissolve itself, which requires 434 votes, at a time when there’s no government in place because it had resigned, a week before we crashed out of the EU.

    What a big bloody mess that would be!

  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
    The Queen then chooses someone, after taking soundings. If no one looks likely to command the confidence of the Commons, she will presumably give Jeremy Corbyn first go to prove her wrong. Whoever she chooses, the then leader of the opposition then has to decide whether to test their confidence.

    In practice it is more likely than not that he would keep his powder dry for the while.
    Given how many of the anti-Brexit mob have said they will not support Corbyn I suspect he will be quite happy using his powder as soon as possible.
  • alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

    I enjoyed the policy announcement that Labour would close down the private schools and "democratically redistribute" the assets (property, land etc) they would seize from their legal owners. So it was no surprise to hear that Labour would compel the likes of Astra Zeneca to hand over their research drugs to be made by a state owned company. Hand over also known as theft.

    Well Fuck That
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    I don’t think that’s right. He is entitled to resign.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure if the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
  • The BBC 1 News special is now up on iPlayer. It seems to be a version of the Andrew Neil show swapped to the main channel. They quite rightly empty chair the Government. I hadn't seen the Brexit Party MEP before. She's very fluent and comes across well.

    BBC News Special, Politics in Crisis: BBC News Special: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095dh via @bbciplayer
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A note for those thinking on the possibility of a referendum. Dominic Grieve, for example, feels no deal has to be on any referendum. It's unlikely they can agree 'what' is in a referendum even if enough want to punt it back to the people
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:
    It’s a good point. It’s about time journalists started re-establishing some journalistic discipline on these things and only reported briefings from those prepared to go formally on the record.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure of the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
    also as I said earlier, if he resigned as PM someone would be nominated by the opposition (probably Ken Clarke) who would remain in post for long enough to get the extension and a General Election
  • GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure if the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
    The Scottish judges would no doubt instruct the government to stay in situ.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    BBC News - Boris and Brenda have had a chat. No news yet on whether Brenda has followed Lady Hales and handed the Prime Minister his testicles, albeit on a charming silver salver.

    Brenda from the Bar, Brenda in Balmoral and Brenda from Bristol.

    (That’s quite enough Brendas - Ed)
    With their excellent combined common sense perhaps consideration should be given to a Government of Brenda's .... GOB's :smiley:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Yeah, because that will make the current constitutional crisis better, a change in Monarch. It's the last thing she would do, unless her health meant that she could not fulfil her role.
    A national crisis? Who do we need? CHARLES III
  • Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
    The key precedent is Baldwin's resignation in 1924. MacDonald was invited to form a minority government which survived for 10 months until the Tories won the inevitable GE. If Johnson hands the poisoned chalice to Corbyn the Tories don't have to VONC him immediately. Eyebrows would certainly be raised at the Palace, more than a quarter, if they did.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
    The Queen then chooses someone, after taking soundings. If no one looks likely to command the confidence of the Commons, she will presumably give Jeremy Corbyn first go to prove her wrong. Whoever she chooses, the then leader of the opposition then has to decide whether to test their confidence.

    In practice it is more likely than not that he would keep his powder dry for the while.
    I think in the circumstances, the number 1 criteria would be someone prepared to obey the law and request an extension from the EU. And no reason why this couldn’t be another Conservative.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure of the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
    also as I said earlier, if he resigned as PM someone would be nominated by the opposition (probably Ken Clarke) who would remain in post for long enough to get the extension and a General Election
    Would Jezza nominate Ken Clarke? Really?
  • ab195 said:


    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    In this situation if they don't want an election I think they have to deliver brexit (or a popularly-voted escape from brexit).

    They have the votes to do this, just soften the PD and pass the WA subject to a referendum. It's mainly a matter of getting Corbyn out of the way (or somehow persuading the others to let him lead the adventure).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
  • spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    It's written in the Cabinet Manual.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Sandpit said:

    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?

    you have to remember that the other side will then be forced to make a decision. do they go for JC, do they go for ANOther? it would be out of his hands and to a certain extent it already is.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    hat.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    rt as PM.
    The Queen then chooses someone, after taking soundings. If no one looks likely to command the confidence of the Commons, she will presumably give Jeremy Corbyn first go to prove her wrong. Whoever she chooses, the then leader of the opposition then has to decide whether to test their confidence.

    In practice it is more likely than not that he would keep his powder dry for the while.
    Given how many of the anti-Brexit mob have said they will not support Corbyn I suspect he will be quite happy using his powder as soon as possible.
    I said a while ago the best approach for Boris is to bring up popular bills for parliament to vote on (ideally ones Corbyn ideologically opposes - tax cuts, long prison sentences for paedophiles and rapists, higher income thresholds for immigrants etc), then resign one day before D-Day, recommend Tom Watson for PM and let Remainers sort themselves out.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    Right now it seems preferable to me to being one of "Anti-Semitism's Little Helpers" or one of "Brexit's Little Helpers" or even one of "Hamas's Little Helpers".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    Not any more. It has to be a motion as laid out in the FTPA.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2019
    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
    Yeah the idea that Boris could be held hostage in Number 10 by Brenda because no else can command confidence seems silly.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    So24 are emergency debates. With Benn in place how does Hobbit justify the 'urgency' of parliament acting as the executive?? SO24 needs to be exceptional, not a matter of routine.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,720
    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure of the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
    also as I said earlier, if he resigned as PM someone would be nominated by the opposition (probably Ken Clarke) who would remain in post for long enough to get the extension and a General Election
    Would Jezza nominate Ken Clarke? Really?
    Of course not,

    Its Jezza or No Deal
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    I read it in Trollope’s “The Prime Minister



  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    Right now it seems preferable to me to being one of "Anti-Semitism's Little Helpers" or one of "Brexit's Little Helpers" or even one of "Hamas's Little Helpers".
    The worst thing Boris did was use a homophobic slur for gay clubbers. The worst thing Corbyn did was participate in commemorating a Jew murderering terrorist.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

    I enjoyed the policy announcement that Labour would close down the private schools and "democratically redistribute" the assets (property, land etc) they would seize from their legal owners. So it was no surprise to hear that Labour would compel the likes of Astra Zeneca to hand over their research drugs to be made by a state owned company. Hand over also known as theft.

    Well Fuck That
    Pretty sure that would be the reaction of the E.U. to any UK government wanting to negotiate a treaty while pursuing such policies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Well yes, I've been pointing this out and PB has noted for aaaages lol.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

    I enjoyed the policy announcement that Labour would close down the private schools and "democratically redistribute" the assets (property, land etc) they would seize from their legal owners. So it was no surprise to hear that Labour would compel the likes of Astra Zeneca to hand over their research drugs to be made by a state owned company. Hand over also known as theft.

    Well Fuck That
    The pharmaceutical industry have come back at Corbyn with some furious and bitterly critical comments. Understandably.

    I wonder if this is one policy announcement which will really bite Labour on the arse. Most people don’t resent drugs companies the way they resent banks or private schools. Drugs companies make the drugs that make people feel better. They invent pills that solve hypertension or impotence or psychosis. And Labour wants to drive them out of business, or out of the UK, for no immediately obvious reason.

    It’s a terrible hostage to fortune, but the pitfalls are obscured by Brexit, for the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    I don't think they are under the FTPA.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562

    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I'm sure the PM of the day can't be forced by law to stay as PM if he/she doesn't want to just because no named successor can be found?

    Obviously we're in uncharted territory as we've not been at an impasse like this in hundreds of years but I'm sure of the government wanted to resign no one course force them not to.
    also as I said earlier, if he resigned as PM someone would be nominated by the opposition (probably Ken Clarke) who would remain in post for long enough to get the extension and a General Election
    Would Jezza nominate Ken Clarke? Really?
    Of course not,

    Its Jezza or No Deal
    Or Jezza and No Deal.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
    Loses court case, goes into opposition
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    Hmm...Is anyone offering 5/1 on us leaving on 31st October? Must be getting close to value that.
  • Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
    Sending the letter is a statutory duty of the office of the Prime Minister and the exact text is in the Act. After today's Supreme Court ruling it's perfectly possible the Civil Service will just stick it in the post automatically. I've yet to read any convincing case that if he refused to personally sign it that would have any legal effect.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    Please. The best helper for getting a Tory majority is Corbyn and his band of Stalinists.
    The Tory/LibDem Coaltion - and the lack of a clear alternative to Austerity from Milliband - was the main recruiter for Corbyn. Post 2015 GE I have always blamed Harriet Harman as Acting Leader - rather than Margaret Beckett - for generating the momentum which led to his Leadership - by her decision to force the Shadow Cabinet abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals.
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
    But if Johnson resigns and refuses to name a successor then HM would have to send for Corbyn. He would be appointed and sent away to see if he could put together a majority. And having just walked away from their responsibilities in such a public way would the Tories want to VONC him and precipitate an immediate election? So it may well be that he could remain PM for some weeks or even months - long enough to negotiate his revised deal and initiate a referendum on it. Johnson is completely trapped - he has no way out, not even resignation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    RobD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    Not any more. It has to be a motion as laid out in the FTPA.
    That's the part of the Act that really needs changed. The government of the day should be able to nominate that any vote essential to its program will be deemed a confidence vote under s2 of the FTPA.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    I don't think they are under the FTPA.
    That is correct - though defeat on either would be followed by a VOC.
  • Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent
    If a PM can’t be nominated from the rabble sitting opposite the current government, then does she have any choice left but to dissolve Parliament?

    In practice they’ll have to nominate someone, if they want that letter sent to Brussels. Even if that person resigns a day later.

    Yes, the FTPA is the most almighty constitutional fcukup. Thanks Nick Clegg for that one!
    The FTPA says it cannot otherwise be dissolved. Even if she wanted to she couldn't.
    Crap, yes you’re right. So if no-one could command the confidence of the House, HM through the Privy Council would have to ask Parliament to dissolve itself, which requires 434 votes, at a time when there’s no government in place because it had resigned, a week before we crashed out of the EU.

    What a big bloody mess that would be!

    That's not how it would work. The Queen would appoint someone as PM, and that person would form a government. That person would then be able to arrange for an extension to Article 50.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Why should opposition MPs vote to allow a recess for the Tory conference so Bozo can peddle more hateful division and attacks on the judges .

    Whilst being fawned over by the no 10 media wing the BBC!

    The Tories can shorten the conference to the weekend , and suck it up ! They have only themselves to blame .
  • spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    I dont see why it kicks in? No no confidence motion or 2/3 vote has been passed
    It doesn't. The position is exactly the same as when Theresa May resigned.

    Boris Johnson's command of the confidence of the House of Commons has never been tested.
    No the position is not the same. May resigned as leader of the Tory party. Her stepping down as PM was only as a consequence of that. If Boris stood down as PM and remained leader of the Tory party then someone else would have to be selected from Parliament to try and form a Government and face a vote of confidence. On face value there is no one who appears to be able to do that.
    His position as leader of the Conservative party is separate from the question of whether he or anyone else commands the confidence of the Commons. There is no in-built role in the constitution for the Conservative party.
    Correct. But there is nothing to stop him taking the Conservative party out of Government so long as he still remains their leader. Under those circumstances you are back with Parliament trying to find someone else they can support as PM.
    But if Johnson resigns and refuses to name a successor then HM would have to send for Corbyn. He would be appointed and sent away to see if he could put together a majority. And having just walked away from their responsibilities in such a public way would the Tories want to VONC him and precipitate an immediate election? So it may well be that he could remain PM for some weeks or even months - long enough to negotiate his revised deal and initiate a referendum on it. Johnson is completely trapped - he has no way out, not even resignation.
    Corbyn doesn't need to assemble a majority. See January 1924.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    ab195 said:


    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    In this situation if they don't want an election I think they have to deliver brexit (or a popularly-voted escape from brexit).

    They have the votes to do this, just soften the PD and pass the WA subject to a referendum. It's mainly a matter of getting Corbyn out of the way (or somehow persuading the others to let him lead the adventure).
    Even if they did that, it would mean the Tories would complain about a referendum "with no Leave option of Remain vs Remain lite", deselect every Tory that voted for it and go into the next General Election on a manifesto pledge of "really Leaving", deal or no deal.
  • Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
    Sending the letter is a statutory duty of the office of the Prime Minister and the exact text is in the Act. After today's Supreme Court ruling it's perfectly possible the Civil Service will just stick it in the post automatically. I've yet to read any convincing case that if he refused to personally sign it that would have any legal effect.
    Perhaps he'll personally deliver the letter, tell the EU he does not want an extension and add that if they grant one the UK will disrupt as much EU business as possible while he remains PM.
  • DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    Not any more. It has to be a motion as laid out in the FTPA.
    That's the part of the Act that really needs changed. The government of the day should be able to nominate that any vote essential to its program will be deemed a confidence vote under s2 of the FTPA.
    Why? That would give government back the power to call an election whenever it chose.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
    The key precedent is Baldwin's resignation in 1924. MacDonald was invited to form a minority government which survived for 10 months until the Tories won the inevitable GE. If Johnson hands the poisoned chalice to Corbyn the Tories don't have to VONC him immediately. Eyebrows would certainly be raised at the Palace, more than a quarter, if they did.
    I think in 1924 MacDonald was appointed on the advice of Baldwin (the King wanted to call Lloyd George). Baldwin thought it was better to test Labour in power for the first time when they couldn’t command a majority.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING NEWS - Diane Abbott has resigned .... as Chief Accountant to Thomas Cook ....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Byronic said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

    I enjoyed the policy announcement that Labour would close down the private schools and "democratically redistribute" the assets (property, land etc) they would seize from their legal owners. So it was no surprise to hear that Labour would compel the likes of Astra Zeneca to hand over their research drugs to be made by a state owned company. Hand over also known as theft.

    Well Fuck That
    The pharmaceutical industry have come back at Corbyn with some furious and bitterly critical comments. Understandably.

    I wonder if this is one policy announcement which will really bite Labour on the arse. Most people don’t resent drugs companies the way they resent banks or private schools. Drugs companies make the drugs that make people feel better. They invent pills that solve hypertension or impotence or psychosis. And Labour wants to drive them out of business, or out of the UK, for no immediately obvious reason.

    It’s a terrible hostage to fortune, but the pitfalls are obscured by Brexit, for the moment.
    Well Daniel Zeichner (no, me neither), Labour MP for Cambridge, might as well say goodbye to his seat right now.

    More good news for the LDs from Labour’s conference.
  • Gabs2 said:

    ab195 said:


    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    In this situation if they don't want an election I think they have to deliver brexit (or a popularly-voted escape from brexit).

    They have the votes to do this, just soften the PD and pass the WA subject to a referendum. It's mainly a matter of getting Corbyn out of the way (or somehow persuading the others to let him lead the adventure).
    Even if they did that, it would mean the Tories would complain about a referendum "with no Leave option of Remain vs Remain lite", deselect every Tory that voted for it and go into the next General Election on a manifesto pledge of "really Leaving", deal or no deal.
    That is undoubtedly where they are heading. See 1906 for details.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    It's written in the Cabinet Manual.
    That is a recent document drawn up by civil servants in advance of the 2010 election. It amounts to a series of recommendations - rather than having constitutional force.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    JackW said:

    BREAKING NEWS - Diane Abbott has resigned .... as Chief Accountant to Thomas Cook ....

    They were actually running a huge profit? :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    alex. said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
    The key precedent is Baldwin's resignation in 1924. MacDonald was invited to form a minority government which survived for 10 months until the Tories won the inevitable GE. If Johnson hands the poisoned chalice to Corbyn the Tories don't have to VONC him immediately. Eyebrows would certainly be raised at the Palace, more than a quarter, if they did.
    I think in 1924 MacDonald was appointed on the advice of Baldwin (the King wanted to call Lloyd George). Baldwin thought it was better to test Labour in power for the first time when they couldn’t command a majority.
    Macdonald was appointed after Baldwin was defeated on the Address in Reply and Asquith, the Leader of the Liberals, publicly announced that they would grant Macdonald confidence and supply.

    This was around the single issue of free trade. It did not last long.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent
    If a PM can’t be nominated from the rabble sitting opposite the current government, then does she have any choice left but to dissolve Parliament?

    In practice they’ll have to nominate someone, if they want that letter sent to Brussels. Even if that person resigns a day later.

    Yes, the FTPA is the most almighty constitutional fcukup. Thanks Nick Clegg for that one!
    The FTPA says it cannot otherwise be dissolved. Even if she wanted to she couldn't.
    Crap, yes you’re right. So if no-one could command the confidence of the House, HM through the Privy Council would have to ask Parliament to dissolve itself, which requires 434 votes, at a time when there’s no government in place because it had resigned, a week before we crashed out of the EU.

    What a big bloody mess that would be!

    That's not how it would work. The Queen would appoint someone as PM, and that person would form a government. That person would then be able to arrange for an extension to Article 50.
    If the person nominated loses an immediate VoNC on what basis is he PM? Any steps he then takes will surely be justiciable in this brave new world or does that only work if the object is to stop Brexit?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The FTPA. Jeez. Everything David Cameron did was utterly, utterly shit. “Ruining the country, I think I’d be quite good at that”.

    Theory: David “snitch on the Queen” Cameron was the most catastrophic leader of a major western nation since the Second World War. I am struggling to think of anyone else with a legacy as grim and chaotic.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019

    ab195 said:


    This board will differ on what that means, but I think Parliament continuing to take the Piss while Boris is seen to push for an election, will not necessarily develop to the advantage of Remain.

    In this situation if they don't want an election I think they have to deliver brexit (or a popularly-voted escape from brexit).

    They have the votes to do this, just soften the PD and pass the WA subject to a referendum. It's mainly a matter of getting Corbyn out of the way (or somehow persuading the others to let him lead the adventure).
    Absent prominent Leaver support the opposition will simply say they’ll go full day Brexit at the next election. Meanwhile the Remain Alliance owns the recession next year, and all other events, incapable of agreeing how to deal with them. And the clock ticks towards 2022 at latest.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    And having just walked away from their responsibilities in such a public way would the Tories want to VONC him and precipitate an immediate election?.

    Yes. He would simply say "I resigned because parliament blocked the people's will, and wanted an election. Now they are refusing democratic accountability too. Hold on to your anger and vote the bastards out as soon as they can't cling on to power any longer."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    alex. said:


    Does the Queen have to nominate a new PM if no one can show they have the confidence of the House. Once again the huge gaps in the FTPA become apparent

    If the PM resigns then yes, the Queen needs to nominate a new PM. The post doesn't stay vacant if nobody can command a majority. This was true long before the FTPA.

    As previously, this new PM will probably not be there long without an election if they can't command a majority.
    Of course by tradition the Queen’s appointment would be formally tested by the passing of a Queens Speech.
    Queens Speeches and budgets are both regarded as confidence votes if I remember correctly
    Not any more. It has to be a motion as laid out in the FTPA.
    That's the part of the Act that really needs changed. The government of the day should be able to nominate that any vote essential to its program will be deemed a confidence vote under s2 of the FTPA.
    Why? That would give government back the power to call an election whenever it chose.
    Lesser of two evils as far as many MPs may be concerned.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Should I join the LibDems then? It's the logical conclusion to my deliberations

    We have travelled down the same road albeit at at different speeds. I left the Labour Party not too long after Corbyn took over. Becoming a registered supporter of the LDs rather than a full member might be the answer, it's what I am going to do.
    I was not aware that people could register as 'Tory Little Helpers'.
    I believe they're known as Momentum.
    For anyone with eyes and ears Jeremy Corbyn today proved that he is really in favour of exiting the EU without a deal, only in circumstances that he won’t obviously get the blame for the consequences. If that’s not a “little helper” I don’t know what is.

    I enjoyed the policy announcement that Labour would close down the private schools and "democratically redistribute" the assets (property, land etc) they would seize from their legal owners. So it was no surprise to hear that Labour would compel the likes of Astra Zeneca to hand over their research drugs to be made by a state owned company. Hand over also known as theft.

    Well Fuck That
    The pharmaceutical industry have come back at Corbyn with some furious and bitterly critical comments. Understandably.

    I wonder if this is one policy announcement which will really bite Labour on the arse. Most people don’t resent drugs companies the way they resent banks or private schools. Drugs companies make the drugs that make people feel better. They invent pills that solve hypertension or impotence or psychosis. And Labour wants to drive them out of business, or out of the UK, for no immediately obvious reason.

    It’s a terrible hostage to fortune, but the pitfalls are obscured by Brexit, for the moment.
    Well Daniel Zeichner (no, me neither), Labour MP for Cambridge, might as well say goodbye to his seat right now.

    More good news for the LDs from Labour’s conference.
    Very unlikely . His defeat was widely touted on here in 2017 - and he increased his majority massively.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,270
    edited September 2019
    If Boris resigns, I agree that Corbyn would not support someone like Clarke or Harman as PM, but...

    ... I don't think he would VoNC a GoNU PM until after the A50 extension has been completed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2019
    nico67 said:

    Why should opposition MPs vote to allow a recess for the Tory conference so Bozo can peddle more hateful division and attacks on the judges .

    Whilst being fawned over by the no 10 media wing the BBC!

    The Tories can shorten the conference to the weekend , and suck it up ! They have only themselves to blame .

    Or they could follow my advice.

    Say, we're off, let the Rabble Alliance fight like ferrets in a sack to work out who's going to take over and go off to Birmingham to have their conference.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    That is written no where.
    he would not be asked to the palace to return 'the seal' if he couldn't name a successor.
    So he sits, unwilling hostage in Number 10, refusing to sign the letter to the EU. Then what?
    Sending the letter is a statutory duty of the office of the Prime Minister and the exact text is in the Act. After today's Supreme Court ruling it's perfectly possible the Civil Service will just stick it in the post automatically. I've yet to read any convincing case that if he refused to personally sign it that would have any legal effect.
    Johnson won’t care about the effect of the letter, so long as he’s not the one signing it.

    Some unelected judge or civil servant signing it would be his best case scenario.
  • NEW THREAD

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    If Boris resigns, I agree that Corbyn would not support someone like Clarke or Harman as PM, but...

    ... I don't think he would VoNC a GoNU PM until after the A50 extension has been completed.

    He wouldn't be LOTO to table a VONC, Johnson would, or the leader of the Tories if he had resigned as leader
  • alex. said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The 14 day window does NOT apply if Johnson resigns voluntarily

    I think, although I may be wrong, that he can only formally resign if he can name a successor. regardless as to what happens within parliament he would remain PM until someone can prove that they have confidence of the house. This still holds regardless as to whether the FTPA applies or not
    Yes agreed, but if he resigns there is no 14 days and then GE unless it's a formal FTPA no confidence resignation
    Parliament would then have to start voting on who had the confidence of the house and the FTPA would kick in automatically.
    Parliament would indeed be reconvened immediately to try and work out who has their confidence, but the FTPA 14-day window doesn’t kick in unless a specifically worded motion is passed that “This house has no confidence in HM government”, which would first require a new PM to be nominated and installed.
    as I said before, the PM can't resign unless there is someone to take over. they can resign every other position but until the HoC has confidence in someone else they will remain PM.
    I think that recent tradition agrees with you, but if for example the PM was to resign because he refused to send a letter to Brussels, it would then be for the Queen’s advisors to quickly assemble and consider who to call to the Palace.
    The key precedent is Baldwin's resignation in 1924. MacDonald was invited to form a minority government which survived for 10 months until the Tories won the inevitable GE. If Johnson hands the poisoned chalice to Corbyn the Tories don't have to VONC him immediately. Eyebrows would certainly be raised at the Palace, more than a quarter, if they did.
    I think in 1924 MacDonald was appointed on the advice of Baldwin (the King wanted to call Lloyd George). Baldwin thought it was better to test Labour in power for the first time when they couldn’t command a majority.
    Indeed. Baldwin (who went on to serve two more terms as PM) probably though "give a man enough rope..." KGV did what his PM advised, and so would his grand-daughter.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Byronic said:

    The FTPA. Jeez. Everything David Cameron did was utterly, utterly shit. “Ruining the country, I think I’d be quite good at that”.

    Theory: David “snitch on the Queen” Cameron was the most catastrophic leader of a major western nation since the Second World War. I am struggling to think of anyone else with a legacy as grim and chaotic.

    Careful you'll have TSE and Nabavi after you. :D
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited September 2019
    Any referendum with a choice of crap deal vs Remain would be boycotted or spoiled balloted.

    Wouldn’t stop remainers claiming victory even if turnout was 40% mind you.
This discussion has been closed.