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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening in line with Johnson’s timetable

Inevitably today has seen a lot of activity on the Brexit linked betting markets as our charts of Betfair movements from Bedata.io show. The broad consensus of punters is that Brexit is less likely to happen in 2019.

Read the full story here

Nigelb

Hello...

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

Hello...

Is it me you're looking for?

TheScreamingEagles

Ma Beckett? Stone the crows!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

Alanbrooke

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

oldpolitics

All the hypothetical polling is irrelevant right now, in my view. A delay to Brexit will play out on a scale which will leave nobody in the country in doubt as to who are the heroes and villains, there just won't be a consensus between people as to which is which. If Boris fights it to the last ounce, Tory support won't collapse as predicted - indeed it might pick up some from Brexit - even if delay ultimately happens. That, is the plan - there has to be a general election at some point.

The deeper Brexiteer plan is that the Conservative Party is now captured for evermore, and the opposition is wildly split. The hard left is in control of Labour, and the Lib Dems, well, they can go high in vote share without getting many seats (as we've seen in the recent-ish past). So what if we fail to leave in 2019, 2020, 2021 - a non-Tory government will be a disaster, probably in charge during a recession, and a no-Deal Tory party will win a landslide when it inevitably collapses. Johnson is collateral damage.

Of course demographics put this at risk, and it was the strategy of the Bennite tendency in 1979 with regard to keeping Labour socialist, so it may have flaws.

dyedwoolie

Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

david_herdson

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

david_herdson said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

OldKingCole said:

Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.

Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.

Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.

The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

"A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.

I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?

Alanbrooke

Now hes full on for the drugs companies

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1176526822265282563

Drutt

Margaret Beckett is surely only an interim leader, though? Which markets include/exclude that?

Edit: wait, you're talking about a situation in which Jez leads the party but Beckett is PM? On any other day that would seem strange.

dyedwoolie

The only way anyone but BJ or JC is PM is to apply for an extension and go straight to the country. The thought of anyone else actually governing is for the birds. Theres no way a cuckoo government survives long enough to run a referendum, for example

Barnesian

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

david_herdson said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

OldKingCole said:

Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.

Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.

Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.

The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

"A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.

I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?

that's what i thought too

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

Will Of The People.....

dyedwoolie

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

Will Of The People.....

I'm sure all the party leaders would be out on that metric

Alanbrooke

Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

GIN1138

dyedwoolie said:

Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

Yep.

If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434

Yellow_Submarine

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

david_herdson said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

OldKingCole said:

Sky News saying Attorney-General told Boris that what he was doing WAS lawful.
Could be some difficult questions for him from both sides.

I am sure that the Attorney General acted in good faith and felt that his interpretation was perfectly reasonable.

If so, it just shows what a horlicks our system of governance has become now that the Supreme Court has seen fit to intervene in the political arena without having a written constitution there to limit the scope of their judgements. Without a rule book to act as guidance and to limit their reach, constitutional law turns into a matter of subjective interpretation and the predictability of rulings turns on a toss of a coin.

Just about everything from the Supreme Court judgement is fine, except its surprising use of the word “quashed”.

Quashed is almost colloquial and suggests a level of emotion behind its judgement against the Government’s actions.

Quashed is a perfectly usual legal term in both civil and criminal proceedings.

The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

"A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.

I thought that was a reference to the rebuke that was given to Ronan Lavery?

That was my understanding. The Northern Irish case wasn't given leave to appeal as the Scottish and English and Welsh appeals had already reached the SC. However the lead NI claimant was allowed to intervene on this appeal and a key aspect of the NI case was that Brexit itself breached the GFA. Hence that comment.

dyedwoolie

It won't be Clarke as he does not believe in a second referendum

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434

Would he have got an election? Doubtful...

Richard_Nabavi

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

Alanbrooke

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

Sandpit

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1176527436659474434

Would he have got an election? Doubtful...

Didn’t it get put to a vote and turned down. Twice?

Fenman

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.

rottenborough

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

With gilts this low, makes sense, especially a new generation of social housing of high quality and low energy.

rottenborough

Fenman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.

This is one example of why Jezza and co want to exit the EU. Property rights is another.

Sandpit

GIN1138 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

Yep.

If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...

Which is exactly what will happen, at the point where the PM has no other options left to avoid writing the extension letter.

blueblue

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1176525350358196224

Will Of The People.....

By Remainer logic, we should have a referendum on whether or not Boris Johnson should resign, and then ignore the outcome if the answer's "Yes"!

steve_garner

Fenman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.

It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.

Nigel_Foremain

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

No wonder Jezza wants out of Europe. He will also find it is a bit difficult to infringe international patents. It will also close down our very successful pharma and medical device industry. What a bunch of cretins. If the LDs cannot break through with the two main alternatives being so economically illiterate it means either the LDs are no good or the electorate are thick as pig shit. Both the former and latter are possible.

spudgfsh

that's an enormous amount of spending.

Alanbrooke

rottenborough said:

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

With gilts this low, makes sense, especially a new generation of social housing of high quality and low energy.

yes it does, the issue will be there is very little capaciy short term to match his ambitions.

Freggles

It is the morning after #GE2019.
I wake up on the sofa, fully clothed, my laptop on one side and a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza on the other.
Groggy, I pick up the laptop and refresh my Chrome tabs.

The Tories have again failed to win a majority. The Lib Dems are on track to top 50 seats and the Brexit Party have two MPs. Scotland is a disaster zone for the blues and reds. There is talk of a rainbow coalition.

I flick over to Twitter.

"THREAD. Why not forming a government is good news for Boris Johnson and Brexit..."

JackW

david_herdson said:

The one bit of the ruling that I felt was a bit iffy was in para 57, which said

"A fundamental change was due to take place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom on 31st October 2019. Whether or not this is a good thing is not for this or any other court to judge"

While on the face of it that's a neutral comment, there's still a bit of an implication that "but if we were to judge, we'd say it was bloody stupid". It would have been better to have left the point out, not least because it adds nothing and no-one raised it as an issue.

I think that para 57 is fine in the context of the importance of the change and parliament have severely restricted opportunities to undertake their role. The last sentence is the Justices reiterating, as they did in the hearings, that BREXIT is not a matter for them.

I've read the judgement fully. An excellent piece of work that IMO will stand down the generations.

Morris_Dancer

Worth remembering the markets don't have a fantastic record on predicting outcomes in this sort of area.

They thought Remain had won by a pretty good margin.

Sandpit

spudgfsh said:

that's an enormous amount of spending.

Fire up the printing presses!

(Oh, and to everyone else, start buying US dollars, Swiss francs and Japanese yen)

Yellow_Submarine

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

This is why leaving the EU isn't even in the top five worst aspects of Brexit. That specific Leave campaign established that peopke are entitled to things just because they voted for them. ( A fundamentally unconservative view ). It's very difficult to argue Corbynism is taboo when you can get Unicorns on your USS Brexit replicator.

williamglenn

Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345

Richard_Nabavi

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.

PaulM

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

I thought that, but given the Tories are still despite everything 2/5 to win the next election perhaps it isn't that inconsistent.

FrancisUrquhart

So not just property rights that aren't safe under Jezza, intellectual rights aren't either.

noneoftheabove

steve_garner said:

Fenman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.

It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.

They will vote for a deal, almost any deal, just not no deal.

Nigel_Foremain

GIN1138 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Lol @ the notion of Jezza allowing a different labour figure to be PM. Nonsense!

Yep.

If government resigns and says "over to you Parliament" they'll be like ferrests in a sack by tea time.

Jezza? Old Ma Beckett? Ken Clarke? Swinson? Harman? Bercow?

The Rabble Alliance will fall apart in hours if they've actually got to start making some decisions...

We have had enough of decisions 🤣 🤣 🤣

noneoftheabove

Sandpit said:

spudgfsh said:

that's an enormous amount of spending.

Fire up the printing presses!

(Oh, and to everyone else, start buying US dollars, Swiss francs and Japanese yen)

Unlike QE for the rich the last decade?

DecrepitJohnL

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

Winning that bet involves tying your stake up for two and a bit years. It is a shame bookies no longer open credit accounts (at least, they don't for ordinary punters).

Scott_P

The Crime Minister?

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1176529665256591366

FrancisUrquhart

Jezza is going to get the lawyer vote....cos they ain't half going to be very busy under his government.

Nigel_Foremain

noneoftheabove said:

steve_garner said:

Fenman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

It says a lot about our educational system that a hall full of people can cheer an economic illiterate. Labour. The Thomas Cook of politics.

It says a lot about former Tory MPs like Clarke and Hammond that they'd rather risk the madness and damage of a Corbyn government than support the PM's efforts to get a Brexit deal.

They will vote for a deal, almost any deal, just not no deal.

The risk of the madness and damage of Corbyn govt are frightening but possibly reversible. The madness of no-deal Brexit is not reversible. This is the route Brexiteers have taken the Tory Party down. They can no longer claim to be the party of sensible government or sensible economics. They are just another swiveleyed revolutionary party

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.

Hes banking on a pissed off electorate. This is his chance to get back disaffected voters who think Brexit is not as important as wages and houses.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.

kinabalu

Alanbrooke said:

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?

JackW

spudgfsh said:

that's an enormous amount of spending.

It's the magic money wood, just a tad larger than the Tory magic money copse

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

So not just property rights that aren't safe under Jezza, intellectual rights aren't either.

Which is a world wide system of patent laws.

Sandpit

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345

Preparing? He kneels with Seamus each night and prays for it surely?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1176531392794152960

Drutt

I can't find Margaret Beckett next PM on Oddschecker at all.

Bear in mind I can find Piers Morgan at 500/1.

noneoftheabove

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.

Are they running Labour for the benefit of the country or to move the Labour party to a clear marxist agenda? I think the latter, it is not that they do not understand that they cannot implement these policies, it is that the purpose of the policies is not pragmatic but emotional. Very similar to Brexiteers running the Tory party.

PaulM

DecrepitJohnL said:

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

Winning that bet involves tying your stake up for two and a bit years. It is a shame bookies no longer open credit accounts (at least, they don't for ordinary punters).

You'd lay it off on betfair after the GE, assuming the Tories didn't win.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Hello...

Is it me you're looking for?

I'm not blind, you know.

Alanbrooke

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?

this will put the cat among the pigeons. We will enter a promises auction and some of the pent up frustrations will have to be addressed. The Tories can choose to either have a counter vision or be outflanked.

dyedwoolie

Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Foremain, I'd be rather more concerned about the prospect of a far left government that that.

Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.

dyedwoolie

Drutt said:

I can't find Margaret Beckett next PM on Oddschecker at all.

Bear in mind I can find Piers Morgan at 500/1.

Any lab figure that isn't Corbyn is throwing money away

NorthofStoke

Brexit then a Corbyn majority government. Is that how one of the world's oldest democracies dies? Can we pull out of the descent into madness?

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?

What a very good point.

spudgfsh

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1176526727415324677

Whatever the merits of each of these many, many policy announcements, it seems to me that those running Labour at the top have absolutely no idea how slow and difficult passing controversial legislation will be.

short term it will be a battle in the courts as to whether it could be done under treaties we have signed up to. long term it will mean that we get less research / breakthroughs and new drugs.

Chris

Sandpit said:

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.

While I was abroad a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Betfair Exchange odds appeared to be the same whether the stake was in Euros or sterling.

That amazed me, given the expected impact on exchange rates.

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

And watch the entire pharma industry decamp to Europe.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

And watch the entire pharma industry decamp to Europe.

I thoght thatwas happening anyway due to Brexit ?

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

Money forest is blooming

FrancisUrquhart

If labour do this with drug companies, why would any research business risk being in the uk...cos tomorrow the great leader could decide your industry is next.

And of cos regardless of brexit, high tech research is what the uk needs to do more and more of, not have all the companies thinking their IP could be sequestered.

JackW

No Tom Watson on the platform ....

Chortle .....

bigjohnowls

Femi
@Femi_Sorry
·
5h
Boris Johnson is currently in New York, where he was born, and will soon be attempting to enter the UK.

Maybe you're right,
@BorisJohnson
, maybe we should send back any migrant who breaks our laws?

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

Money forest is blooming

nah Scotland :-)

Danny565

dyedwoolie said:

Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

LOL, you guys have been saying this for weeks, but the Tory position in the polls hasn't improved (except perhaps with Opinium) during that time.

I remember on one of Boris's "walkabouts" a couple of weeks ago, he did manage to find a crowd of oldies who worryingly were cheering most of his lines. "We need to leave on 31 October, don't we?" YES! "We need to put more police on the streets, don't we" YES! The one line of his that didn't work was when he said "And we need to have an election, don't we?" - the crowd were completely muted at that, before one woman shouted out something like "we just want you to get us out of Europe!"

NorthofStoke

williamglenn said:

Is Corbyn preparing for No Deal?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1176527201791033345

Within weeks we would have no drugs for the NHS that are produced abroad and within a year the destruction of our pharma sector. From just one of the lunatic policies!

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

Femi
@Femi_Sorry
·
5h
Boris Johnson is currently in New York, where he was born, and will soon be attempting to enter the UK.

Maybe you're right,
@BorisJohnson
, maybe we should send back any migrant who breaks our laws?

Can't because he only has British citizenship.

malcolmg

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?

What a very good point.

Think it was more the latter unfortunately

kinabalu

The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

They really ought to stop that.

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.

Insane, yes - but it isn't hilarious if people are applauding it.

spudgfsh

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

Money forest is blooming

It always amazes me that the left/hard left don't realise that they can put tax rates up as much as they want for the top end but it doesn't always raise more tax.

Nigel_Foremain

dyedwoolie said:

Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

I think anger can go in many directions. I am angry about what a bunch of far right loons have done to the Conservative Party, economic stability, the constitution and the Monarch. Yea, in a non-violent way I am very angry, and I want Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to be totally humiliated in some way or other (ideally not via Mr Thicky Corbyn). It will be the biggest amount of schadenfreude I have ever allowed myself when he is ignominiously removed from power in absolute disgrace and goes down in history as the worst most incompetent idiot to ever have held high office

isam

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jezza going the full Tony Benn. Probably the most radical left agenda since the late seventies\ early eighties

Is this not what we wanted the Leave vote to trigger - a junking of the stale old politics which ignored the plebs?

It wasn't just about less immigrants surely to goodness?

What a very good point.

Yes, agreed.

NorthofStoke

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

housebuilding programme, massive infrastructure investment

It's just hilarious. £250bn of investment in infrastructure, £250bn in capital for business and coops, no tuition fees, free ducation for life, free childcare, new Sure Start, nationalisation of rail, mail, water and the national grid, combined with measures to make companies less profitable, net zero emissions by 2030, three new battery plants, and - wait for it - all this to be paid for with no tax increases for 95% of the population.

Boris may be a rogue, but Corbyn is certifiably insane.

Insane, yes - but it isn't hilarious if people are applauding it.

Not funny at all. Frightening.

Sandpit

Chris said:

Sandpit said:

david_herdson said:

3/1 for Brexit not to happen before 2022 looks huge.

Yes, but you’re paying your stake in 2019 pounds and receiving your winnings in 2022 pounds, which if Corbyn gets in are going to be worth tuppence by then.

While I was abroad a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Betfair Exchange odds appeared to be the same whether the stake was in Euros or sterling.

That amazed me, given the expected impact on exchange rates.

That’s a very good point - although no deal will likely lead to both the pound and euro falling against other major currencies.

I wonder if Betfair simply convert from and to Sterling on the date of the transaction, need to research that. It wouldn’t make sense for them to be taking on currency exchange risk.

Nigelb

JackW said:

spudgfsh said:

that's an enormous amount of spending.

It's the magic money wood, just a tad larger than the Tory magic money copse

It's a bloody tropical rainforest.

The_Taxman

kinabalu said:

The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

They really ought to stop that.

Labour might actually win my vote. If they promised a referendum on deal vs. Remain. I would vote for them!

dyedwoolie

Danny565 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

LOL, you guys have been saying this for weeks, but the Tory position in the polls hasn't improved (except perhaps with Opinium) during that time.

I remember on one of Boris's "walkabouts" a couple of weeks ago, he did manage to find a crowd of oldies who worryingly were cheering most of his lines. "We need to leave on 31 October, don't we?" YES! "We need to put more police on the streets, don't we" YES! The one line of his that didn't work was when he said "And we need to have an election, don't we?" - the crowd were completely muted at that, before one woman shouted out something like "we just want you to get us out of Europe!"

Oh my only interest in a GE is getting Clive Lewis out and 'literally anyone' to replace him. I'm pleased some in labour fear for his seat with their current Brexit fudge

Foxy

Richard_Nabavi said:

Heaven help us, we really are stuffed if (God forbid) we end up with a Corbyn government:

We will redesign the system to serve public health - not private wealth - using compulsory licensing to secure generic versions of patented medicines

That's going the full Venezuela, and also withdrawing from decades of international agreements on patent law (not to mention also requiring us to leave the EU and have no trade deal with them - I wonder how many of the cheering activists figured that out?)

Quite apart from the legal issues, there may well be technical issues too. Pharmaceuticals, particularly biologics, are not always straightforward to synthesise.

HYUFD

Given Boris will resign as PM by October 31st rather than extend if a new Brexit Deal has not been agreed with the EU and approved by Parliament by then and given the LDs will vote down a Corbyn government as will Tory anti No Deal rebels only a PM acceptable to the LDs and Tory rebels will do. That probably means PM Ken Clarke or maybe PM Harman or PM Beckett by the end of October.

Boris will be Leader of the Opposition regardless with Corbyn forced to prop up a Clarke or Harman premiership until extension has been passed and Boris then pushes a VONC he will have to support

blueblue

kinabalu said:

The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

They really ought to stop that.

Damned right they should.

Nigel_Foremain

kinabalu said:

The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

They really ought to stop that.

Mmm, but such ideas rarely benefit ordinary people. Have you heard of a place called Venezuela?

tpfkar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza is going to get the lawyer vote....cos they ain't half going to be very busy under his government.

They seem to be busy enough under this one!

NorthofStoke

kinabalu said:

The Labour Party appear to be floating a range of ideas which might benefit ordinary people at the expense of wealthy vested interests.

They really ought to stop that.

Do you really believe that?

Sandpit

spudgfsh said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

Free presciption, free unis, free social care, free training.

taxes up for top 5%, and corporations

Money forest is blooming

It always amazes me that the left/hard left don't realise that they can put tax rates up as much as they want for the top end but it doesn't always raise more tax.

Do you reckon any of them have ever even heard of Arthur Laffer?

dyedwoolie

Nigel_Foremain said:

dyedwoolie said:

Not going for a GE will backfire massively on the rebel alliance. They will be getting that doorstep feedback again. What's the selling point when they finally allow one? We prevented Brexit against the expressed will of the referendum and played political games to do it, now please throw us some fish from the bucket?! We delayed and now we want to rule so we can delay some more!
Anger is going to boil over in the ballot box and a hell of a lot are going to be swept away by it.

I think anger can go in many directions. I am angry about what a bunch of far right loons have done to the Conservative Party, economic stability, the constitution and the Monarch. Yea, in a non-violent way I am very angry, and I want Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to be totally humiliated in some way or other (ideally not via Mr Thicky Corbyn). It will be the biggest amount of schadenfreude I have ever allowed myself when he is ignominiously removed from power in absolute disgrace and goes down in history as the worst most incompetent idiot to ever have held high office

Oh I think the anger is at the lot of them and the election will go to whoever best encapsulates 'fuck the system'
That seems atm to be Johnson

Benpointer

Rory Stewart talking a lot of sense on R4...

... no wonder he stood no chance in the Tory leadership contest.