politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Elevator Pitch
Options
Comments
-
It is not completely outside of the realm of possibility now that BoZo gets his election by resigning as PM, and party leader...0
-
Its probably just sour grapes but I am not enjoying this situation. The FTPA has to go. A PM needs to be able to go to the country if parliament is thwarting the government's agenda.0
-
Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who refused to even vote for the Withdrawal AgreementScott_P said:
No surprise there, as the Miliband's showed being brothers does not stop political differences0 -
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting ToryHYUFD said:
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there
A trifle pessimistic, unless you take Ken Clarke's view that the Tory party is now the Brexit party mark 2.0 -
Radical youth has always had a place in the part, going back to the 60s.Tabman said:
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.Nigelb said:
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
0 -
Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.0
-
So when May was in charge the strategy of Party before Brexit didn't work.
The new strategy of Brexit before Party seems to also not work.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1169560573895467009?fbclid=IwAR1vJIPrDwkY9zSTe7eJQMVC3flZqDC9RIIaDAGvRK2Maw2xJifQ3-Al7t80 -
if the deed is done, the timing was less than helpful. He could quite happily have banged out a note at 7pm.dyedwoolie said:Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood
0 -
Although voters think Boris is in it for himself they are split on whether he’s genuinely trying to get a deal with the EU:
BJ seriously trying to get deal with EU: 39
NOT seriously trying to get deal with EU: 420 -
Terrible poll for Cummings and his puppet.CarlottaVance said:Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
His Own Interest: 42
The National Interest: 21
The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
All of them equally: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf
Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...0 -
We will see if the chicken clucks or not, 3 years shouting his mouth off about it and then runs away when offered it, not a good look but normal for unprincipled chancers.bigjohnowls said:
Only Jezza has the GE key and Johnson the Jester and wee Jimmy Krankie can scream as loud as they want. November you cant trust Johnson GE it is.GIN1138 said:
Nicola playing a very crafty game keeping everyone waiting to see which way she'll jump.DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1169550043935850498
The SNP hold the key to this don't they.
Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.
She's a smart operator.0 -
That's what a Cummings-Johnson duo do to you ?eek said:
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statisticHYUFD said:
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there
1 -
-
Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
No, I don't have an answer either.0 -
-
Indeed but the youth wing is pretty Orange Book these daysIanB2 said:
Radical youth has always had a place in the part, going back to the 60s.Tabman said:
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.Nigelb said:
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.0 -
Literally no-one wants the poisoned chalice of sorting this mess out!CarlottaVance said:Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit
Is: 21
Is Not: 530 -
Running on a platform of Bollocks to Brexit?eristdoof said:
That would be a GoNaDAnneJGP said:
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
0 -
0
-
< HYUFD > Still 58% of people think Johnson is not acting in his own interest...< /HYUFD >bigjohnowls said:
Terrible poll for Cummings and his puppet.CarlottaVance said:Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
His Own Interest: 42
The National Interest: 21
The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
All of them equally: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf
Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...0 -
OK 48% wish to leave the EU and 48% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
It's still a massive jump for which you have zero evidence.
Personally I would put it at 10-16% or whatever percentage of the vote BXP has today.0 -
I'm on that too but no polls any good for Labour recently.Morris_Dancer said:Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.
0 -
Jo Johnson should probably never have taken a job from his brother in the first place, but it is astonishing that, having convinced him to do so in late July, Boris Johnson has been unable to hold onto him beyond early September.Alanbrooke said:
if the deed is done, the timing was less than helpful. He could quite happily have banged out a note at 7pm.dyedwoolie said:Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood
If I was a shameless careerist like Matt Hancock I might be starting to feel very nervous about my career choices right now.0 -
When the Tories are on 40% of courseeristdoof said:
In a seat with 48% Labour! Dream on.HYUFD said:
So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seateristdoof said:
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.HYUFD said:
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats0 -
Alan, as we see in the UK, brains are not a requirement to be running a countryAlanbrooke said:
so how come he's POTUS ?IanB2 said:
Trump has the advantage of genuinely being stupid.Pulpstar said:
Can Johnson campaign as well as Trump though ?edmundintokyo said:This is all very Trump-ish.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.0 -
Some shameless theft of that line going on on twitter.Benpointer said:0 -
BoZo could sack Cummings at his presser today.
That would appease some of his backbenchers for a bit. Might screw up his election plans.0 -
We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.0
-
That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?Scott_P said:It is not completely outside of the realm of possibility now that BoZo gets his election by resigning as PM, and party leader...
0 -
-
George for PMBenpointer said:
Or Osborne? ;-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.0 -
I find the odds on a GE this year at 1.08 inexplicable.Peter_the_Punter said:
Might be a coincidence but the Betfair odds against Revoke have shortened a bit.Scott_P said:0 -
Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/11695463164956917760 -
If you wait until the polls move, the price will have gone. Sadly, you and I are not the only two watching.Pulpstar said:
I'm on that too but no polls any good for Labour recently.Morris_Dancer said:Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.
0 -
A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.0 -
-
Referendum that gives multiple options but also allows ranking seems best bet:Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
No, I don't have an answer either.
Revoke A50
Deal with CU, SM and FOM
Deal without FOM but CU
Deal without CU
No Deal
I would assume a Norway / Canada style deal would win, and No Deal and Revoke would lose. I mean, I'm supposedly an avid remainer, and I'd probably vote Norway deal above Revoke because I do think we should leave in some sense, but not in a no deal scenario.0 -
That no person being able to command a majority in the House, an election should occuranothernick said:That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?
0 -
Who'd Osborne support in the Tory leadership race ?Scott_P said:0 -
Jo's only resigned to stop me posting there are six Etonians in the government (not all were in the same school year, obviously: Boris values diversity).HYUFD said:
Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who refused to even vote for the Withdrawal AgreementScott_P said:
No surprise there, as the Miliband's showed being brothers does not stop political differences0 -
Deleted0
-
After watching that I now support Cummings.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/11695463164956917760 -
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.0 -
I find the odds on a GE this year at 1.08 inexplicable.Peter_the_Punter said:
Might be a coincidence but the Betfair odds against Revoke have shortened a bit.Scott_P said:
Cummings should have been kept on the bench and only brought out for the campaign. What he’s good at.Scott_P said:BoZo could sack Cummings at his presser today.
That would appease some of his backbenchers for a bit. Might screw up his election plans.
He makes Nick Timothy/Fiona Hill look like the Samaritans.0 -
AIUI the ruling in the Scottish case that failed so far was that it was basically a political not a legal matter, despite Joanne Cherry (QC!) declaring that:148grss said:I know there are many learned lawyers here, any opinions on the case happening today? I'm trying to follow on Twitter, but I am but a layman.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1169547986382270464
"Mr Johnson's announcement was a "constitutional outrage and profoundly undemocratic". (BBC), and the Durgin' Sturgeon rabbiting on about "the day democracy died".
I think the case in London is likely to have competent people involved.
As for who to follow - Joshua Rozenburg and especially Carl Gardner if he is commentating, who was constitutional law adviser to the Blair Govt, and a non-partisan thinker.
I think it is good that it is all coming to a head, and hopefully we get clarity and move on.0 -
He probably needs to restore the whip and get Hoey, Austin, elphicke etc to back a one line ftpa amendment if the SNP wont help him out. Or quit. Hes let the clusterfuck become self fulfilling. If the plan was exposing the opposition as blocking Brexit I'm not sure where the showing Boris as its saviour bit was..... they forgot they need wins too0
-
Nigel , yes on both stupid and legsNigelb said:
Equally true of Scotland, malcolm.malcolmg said:
I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher.eristdoof said:
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.malcolmg said:
Think he was right first time and 50% was low callnot_on_fire said:
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.eek said:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Welshmen
Though it really ought be 'very, very, very slightly more than the average number of legs'.
Not sure about the English - we may have more than our fair share of three legged oddities.0 -
I was going to joke about it being run over, but thought better of it.Scott_P said:0 -
Not even the people !felix said:
Literally no-one wants the poisoned chalice of sorting this mess out!CarlottaVance said:Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit
Is: 21
Is Not: 530 -
It’s possible this process finishes off both Johnson and Corbyn.Pulpstar said:
Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/1169546316495691776
That would be rather nice.1 -
It will be stored up problem, precisely because the “sadalistas” are presumably the local branch chairs etc. What do Chukka/Lee/Berger think of nuclear power? Nuclear weapons? School discipline? Police powers? Gvt intercept powers? That debate will be interesting to see.Tabman said:
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.Nigelb said:
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.0 -
Worth noting that Jo Jonson was a Minister with responsibility for at least two areas - IP and universities - that are going to be most negatively affected by No Deal.0
-
LOL - brilliantTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
There isn't an answer. The starting point would be a second referendum with a fixed definition of leave but that will lose and Farage and co will continue to call it out as fake / unfair regardless of the leave option.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
No, I don't have an answer either.
I suspect we will spend decades trying to work out who the worst PM of all time was and it will end up being Cameron 1st, May 2nd and Boris will be let off due to the speed of the implosion.0 -
Boris Johnson is to Tory party what Brian Clough was to Leeds United.0
-
Anyone think she can hold Liverpool Wavertree. I think it used to be a LD seat many many years ago, but its become monolithically Labour recently (like almost all Merseyside seats).PeterMannion said:The LD Berger, new at McDonald's...
0 -
Not a bad punt. If Corbyn had any sense, he'd put a tie on and pretend he was Tony Blair for three weeks, in an unlikely attempt to prove he's a less chaotic choice than Bozza. But I suspect he won't be able to resist nationalising Tesco or giving Che Guevara a posthumous knighthood on his first day in power (or something equally horse-frightening), and leave Boris a clear run.Pulpstar said:
Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/11695463164956917760 -
Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....Scott_P said:0 -
The LGBT issue has caused some consternation, but the person(s) concerned didn't seem to have too much problem with Tim Farron, so I suspect it's tinged by the arrival point of the defector (the centre right).El_Capitano said:
A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
Liberal has a clear meaning in the UK. And it encompasses economic Liberalism.0 -
Osborne has not noticed the awkward juxtaposition of his two front page stories.CarlottaVance said:
Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....Scott_P said:0 -
ExcellentEl_Capitano said:
After watching that I now support Cummings.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/11695463164956917760 -
Exactly.El_Capitano said:
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
Liberal in America means "Left" on the American political spectrum.
In Australia Liberal means Conservative.
In Germany Liberal means the FDP party who are Entrepreneur/small buissnessman/low tax party, who would slot nicely into the (pre July 2019) Conservative Party.
In Britian I have heard "liberal" being used as "Neo-Liberal" and "pro-diversity" as well as the old "Liberal Party" meaning.
I have given up using the word because everyone assumes I mean something else.0 -
Hard to see the independents and MPs who are standing down backing an early election if the opposition parties oppose.dyedwoolie said:He probably needs to restore the whip and get Hoey, Austin, elphicke etc to back a one line ftpa amendment if the SNP wont help him out. Or quit. Hes let the clusterfuck become self fulfilling. If the plan was exposing the opposition as blocking Brexit I'm not sure where the showing Boris as its saviour bit was..... they forgot they need wins too
0 -
Hillary Benn currently pulling the legs off Michael Gove
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2e9c4033-92b3-4edb-b5dd-09f0990e832c0 -
13-1-44-1 figures for England this morning.0
-
Certainly needs at least one of their parties to wake up to how monumentally myopic they've been in their choice of leaders. Hopefully another GE where they both limp to something short of a majority will start to get the message through.Casino_Royale said:
It’s possible this process finishes off both Johnson and Corbyn.Pulpstar said:
Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.Jonathan said:It has started.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/1169546316495691776
That would be rather nice.0 -
They used to be. They were when I was active 10-15 years ago. But they're getting into their seventies now and their active days are getting behind them.ab195 said:
It will be stored up problem, precisely because the “sadalistas” are presumably the local branch chairs etc. What do Chukka/Lee/Berger think of nuclear power? Nuclear weapons? School discipline? Police powers? Gvt intercept powers? That debate will be interesting to see.Tabman said:
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.Nigelb said:
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
Four years ago the party had 45,000 members. It now has 110,000. It's already a totally different beast to what it was.0 -
So Corbyn would be appointed, fail to secure a VOC and then go into an election (on a date chosen by him) as PM? Can't see Johnson going for that.Scott_P said:
That no person being able to command a majority in the House, an election should occuranothernick said:That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?
0 -
What's happening with Millar-Major (or Major-Millar) ? 0
-
It all went south when May lost Cameron's majority and had to rely on the DUP which then led to the backstop becoming Uk wide rather than just NI only.eek said:
There isn't an answer. The starting point would be a second referendum with a fixed definition of leave but that will lose and Farage and co will continue to call it out as fake / unfair regardless of the leave option.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
No, I don't have an answer either.
I suspect we will spend decades trying to work out who the worst PM of all time was and it will end up being Cameron 1st, May 2nd and Boris will be let off due to the speed of the implosion.
A vote to leave the EU was a shame but not disastrous, its the handling post referendum that has been appalling.0 -
Apparently in the UK "Conservative" means ideological zeal, chaos and brinkmanship.eristdoof said:
Exactly.El_Capitano said:
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
Liberal in America means "Left" on the American political spectrum.
In Australia Liberal means Conservative.
In Germany Liberal means the FDP party who are Entrepreneur/small buissnessman/low tax party, who would slot nicely into the (pre July 2019) Conservative Party.
In Britian I have heard "liberal" being used as "Neo-Liberal" and "pro-diversity" as well as the old "Liberal Party" meaning.
I have given up using the word because everyone assumes I mean something else.0 -
So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).Barnesian said:Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.0 -
I think he hasDecrepitJohnL said:
Osborne has not noticed the awkward juxtaposition of his two front page stories.CarlottaVance said:
Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....Scott_P said:0 -
Maybe Boris could have Jo’s seat.0
-
Typo -,it’s been corrected to “Labour”.eek said:
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statisticHYUFD said:
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there
The 2017 Con vote is quite sticky ~75% IIRC second only to LD and miles ahead of Labour (~56%)0 -
It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.TheValiant said:
So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).Barnesian said:Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.
It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification0 -
It is remarkable how many posters with extremely different viewpoints would tolerate a soft Brexit answer compared to the polls.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
The reason is we are more engaged and have considered the possible outcomes and their consequences shifting us away from our instinctive first preferences.
To repeat the process for the country, the best chance is Rory Stewarts national convention or citizens assembly. Take away revoke, referendum and no deal. Take away politicians. Ask 250 people drawn by lot to spend 3 months clarifying what they want the relationship with the EU to be within those constraints. Get them to elect a dozen to negotiate that with the EU for another 3 months. Parliament commits in advance to pass whatever they agree.0 -
The 'it's been such a helluva morning no one is talking about the cricket' scale is hovering around nine.Pulpstar said:13-1-44-1 figures for England this morning.
0 -
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.0 -
Its an important distinction to clarify, one is very embarrassing, the other a deliberate knifingIanB2 said:
It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.TheValiant said:
So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).Barnesian said:Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.
It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification0 -
The Lib Dems accepted Aimee Challenor into their ranks, gleefully. That tells me all I need to know about them on issues like LGBT rights. feminists and womens rights can go hang as long as they are pandering to the latest trend. As for Jenny Rigg. Good riddance.El_Capitano said:
A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.0 -
Agreed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.1 -
The quotes are the killer.dyedwoolie said:
Its an important distinction to clarify, one is very embarrassing, the other a deliberate knifingIanB2 said:
It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.TheValiant said:
So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).Barnesian said:Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.
It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification
0 -
It will be interesting to see how the cowardly chicken Corbyn meme is played back at the PM when he parachutes into a safe seat of a loyal real conservative who he kicked out of the party.SouthamObserver said:Maybe Boris could have Jo’s seat.
0 -
If it's going to be 'remain' then actually implementing the EU defintion on FoM etc instead of our ridiculous gold plating/EU says you need to give an inch, giving a mile would be a very good move too.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.0 -
Tbf Boris hasn't done anything, its Jo that has decided to act, so his comments reflect his view of familySouthamObserver said:
0 -
There are two possible outcomes.Casino_Royale said:
Agreed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.
Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.
0 -
Given your profile photo I suspect you do know who I'm talking about!Tabman said:
The LGBT issue has caused some consternation, but the person(s) concerned didn't seem to have too much problem with Tim Farron, so I suspect it's tinged by the arrival point of the defector (the centre right).El_Capitano said:
A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.
I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.0 -
CF, Labour has its elevator pitch:
"Vote Corbyn for relative sanity."2 -
Not negligible.williamglenn said:There must be a chance the Johnson administration will simply collapse in acrimony.
The brother's resignation is telling.
It tells me 2 things. That Boris really is going for No Deal and is not contemplating anything else.
That those who know him best can see that as PM he is unfit for purpose.0 -
I dont think Jo is going to be particularly popular with his colleagues today, not the leavers anyway and remainers backing Boris arent going to be thrilled with him0
-
71-23 is not miles ahead of 77-18CarlottaVance said:
Typo -,it’s been corrected to “Labour”.eek said:
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statisticHYUFD said:
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there
The 2017 Con vote is quite sticky ~75% IIRC second only to LD and miles ahead of Labour (~56%)
0 -
where is this Reform going to come from ?Jonathan said:
There are two possible outcomes.Casino_Royale said:
Agreed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.
Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.0 -
Yet the Tories have a 10% lead over Labour in the latest Yougov while under May the Tories were third.IanB2 said:We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.
Cummings is pursuing the only agenda to win the next general election ie deliver Brexit at all costs and end austerity0 -
The Reformotron (tm) obviously! Apparently the EU are up for it.Alanbrooke said:
where is this Reform going to come from ?Jonathan said:
There are two possible outcomes.Casino_Royale said:
Agreed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.Nigelb said:
It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.Richard_Tyndall said:
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".
Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.
Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.0 -
Polls are simply that. Its the votes that count, currently I wouldnt call anything certain.HYUFD said:
Yet the Tories have a 10% lead over Labour in the latest Yougov while under May the Tories were third.IanB2 said:We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.
Cummings is pursuing the only agenda to win the next general election ie deliver Brexit at all costs and end austerity0 -
Jo backing Boris never made sense given his reasons for resigning as a minister previously.kinabalu said:
Not negligible.williamglenn said:There must be a chance the Johnson administration will simply collapse in acrimony.
The brother's resignation is telling.
It tells me 2 things. That Boris really is going for No Deal and is not contemplating anything else.
That those who know him best can see that as PM he is unfit for purpose.0 -
Gove: The future is known only to the Almighty0
This discussion has been closed.