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It’s all frightfully exciting, isn’t it?!
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It’s all frightfully exciting, isn’t it?!
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LD: End the whole clown-shoes shit-show
Lab: Negotiate Norway so Brexit doesn't threaten your job, them let the voters decide
The Lab one isn't particularly snappy, but the first and second parts are a bit stronger on their own, and candidates can decide which half to pitch depending on their respective elevators.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
There was no efffective countering of this message at the time, so now paradoxically and shamelessly the Tories have converted weariness into enthusiasm even in part of the public's own mind.
Is anyone really willing to sign up to years of Corbyn doing a deal with Brussels and then potentially fail to ratify it because it depends on Lib Dem or SNP votes to get through the HoC.
I think we're at the "better a end with horror than horror without end" stage of this. The tory pitch needs to be leave with us, or revoke with them.
The LibDems have an incredibly clear elevator pitch. Bollocks to Brexit is a 3-second pitch, let alone a 30-second one. It's THE clearest message of any political party and it resonates with c. 55% of the voting population.
Labour's message is more nuanced, to put it politely. It's actually evolving into a pretty decent approach but Cyclefree is almost certainly right about the weariness factor. It may hurt Labour.
At the same time, despite all the brouhaha this will NOT only be a Brexit election. Oh, it may start that way. The red tops will try their best. But for the very reason that Cyclefree states, namely weariness with Brexit, the General Election campaign will move on to other topics.
When the Election is finally announced on Monday there will be all to play for.
Not only were they never serious about stopping the extension and election, they actively forced these events to happen because the PM knows no-deal on 31 Oct is a disaster and wants no part of it.
I guess the line to take is that the Tories are trying to make a deregulated pirate island with low wages and unsafe working conditions to outcompete the rest of the EU, and the rest of the EU won't agree to that because they don't have cornflakes for brains. This is why the Tories keep marching up to the top of the hill claiming that the EU will blink, then backing down at the last minute. The thing about this is that it means the approach that has been failing for the last three years is going to keep on failing even if they go No Deal and try to negotiate a trade deal.
OK, that wasn't very snappy, but something along those lines...
If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.
First, a large majority of MPs voted to hold a referendum that contained an option they thought would never be voted for and did not want to happen. None of them seems to have devoted any thought to what the Hell they were going to do in the event of a Leave vote; we certainly know that the Second Cameron Ministry did absolutely zero work to prepare for it.
Second, most of the Commons then voted to trigger Article 50, when clearly most of them were also still deeply reluctant to go and, again, they had no idea how. Ladies and gentlemen, the logical conclusion of a decision to set a timer for the UK's departure from the EU is that, if you can't conclude new arrangements within the agreed timescale (e.g. no majority can be found for any kind of Withdrawal Agreement,) then you simply leave without one. Again, there are hundreds of prize idiots at Westminster who failed to think of this before they cast their votes.
Hence the fact that we now find ourselves at the point, more than three years after the referendum, where we're effectively no further forward (unless, by some miracle, May's deal is debated again and clears the Commons) actually to leaving the EU than we were on June 24th 2016. The public is absolutely sick of it, faith in representative democracy is being steadily corroded, and a substantial fraction of the Leave vote is either disillusioned, incandescent with rage or both about being thwarted.
Which brings us to what could be the most dangerous failure of all. Third, how does Boris Johnson choose to face the logical consequences of his pledge not to go to the European Council and ask for a Brexit extension, given that it now seems certain that the Hilary Benn legislation will reach the statute book? Well, Jeremy Corbyn could yet bail him out by agreeing to an October 15th election, but what happens if the Leader of the Opposition finds an excuse to take Keir Starmer's advice and decline to do so?
If Boris Johnson is both true to his word AND respects the rule of law, he must then, logically, resign as Prime Minister. The awful risk is that he won't be any better at embracing logic than Parliament has been, and he'll attempt to defy the law in order to keep his promise to the electorate. And, crucially, that a large chunk of the electorate responds to his illegality not with gasps of horror, but with an outbreak of national cheering.
Populism really takes root when respect for lawmakers is so diminished that the electorate itself (or, at any rate, a big enough chunk of it to destabilise the system,) comes to its own logical conclusion: that the law itself, being passed by disreputable individuals operating in a broken system, is worthless. And then we're all in desperate trouble.
I voted remain and whilst disliking all the parties, I would dislike the LDs the least! However I think soft brexit is a better way forward, there was a referendum, it should be respected, and revoke is no more of an end state than no deal is - we would only ever be one GE from an election that could produce a no deal govt that could rightly say it doesnt need any further mandate from the people than the GE.
I dont want to leave, but think we should, and it is a possibly long term tactical mistake, and certainly bad for the country, that the LDs have not been open at all to soft Brexit.
I don't think we could have both another referendum and an election fairly close together, either, although it was OK in 1975.
So Norway and the backstop in Ireland it has to be! (There are Customs posts on the border with Sweden) Possibly with a re-unification referendum in N. Ireland, depending upon the result of their forthcoming elections.
Nothing that has happened in the past 6 weeks would have come as much of a surprise to Tory HQ. Their strategy all along seems to have been to find a way of nullifying Farage even upon a pre Brexit election, making Corbyn look like he’s dragging on the country’s pain and uncertainty for no good reason, restore party discipline and inoculate the “Tory Austerity” attack line. He gets at least a B+ for much of this with the end of austerity bit something he’ll be happy to talk about in the campaign.
Johnson is also self aware enough to know he’s weak at the despatch box. Could be he manages to go to the country with just a solitary PMQs that Momentum can mine for social media footage.
Rudd quitting would be a significant unforeseen blow but thus far there’s little sign of that. Soames will have hurt him personally but I don’t think it cuts through much with Joe Normal.
1. A Deal vs Remain referendum, after Corbyn has completed his "renegotiation." The Deal will inevitably be something very similar to Theresa May's, which politicians and commentators have eviscerated, and the referendum would also be vulnerable to a boycott by disgruntled hardcore Leavers. Remain would therefore have an excellent chance of winning
2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted
I'm not necessarily advocating such a course of action but, again, referring back to my previous post about the logic of politician's positioning, if there really is a majority in Parliament that is utterly terrified of leaving the EU and thinks it a disaster, then taking measures that reduce the likelihood of that occurrence to as near zero as possible, within a framework that is consistent with democratic governance, is what they should be contemplating.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
On the rest of the points I would mostly agree that they have ticked off most of their election planning points, blame Labour, look like they are serious about delivering Brexit and will stop austerity.
But and its a big but, they have underestimated how this mess plays with ex Labour voters who strongly dislike Corbyn, and have switched from Lab to other parties in the polls. The govt has looked untrustworthy, aloof and reckless. At the same time Corbyn has been working with and listening to senior MPs in his party, Hammond, Clarke, the SNP, the LDs, Caroline Lucas.
It will now be very easy for those voters, and there are a lot of them, to vote anti Tory, anti no deal, which in reality for many means voting Labour for most as there are way more Lab-Tory marginals than anything else.
But for this to pan out, he needs the EU to cooperate. This FT article (£) says they won’t. They want us gone.
https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true
Is it true? Possibly not.
Oh, and nice article, Ms Cyclefree.
"Can you imagine never agreeing anything with our neighbours in Europe? Do you want that? If that's a No, we need to engage with the EU and its member states. We have an initial agreement on the table. Let's get started with that. Negotiation is dreary and hard work but government's are there to do that kind of stuff."
Labours pitch for a Norway Brexit, subject to a referendum, is a very marketable one. This indeed is an endpoint with no further Brexit discussion needed.
Boris's No Deal (and it is obvious that there are no renegotiations and he cannot get his own party to back the WA) is a starting point for endless intractable discussions. No Deal is not an endpoint, but a starting one.
Ivan Rogers describes the perpetual hell of No Deal quite well here:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1169134905713971206?s=19
https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-personality-has-made-the-brexit-crisis-worse-11802482
As most of us on here realised long ago, Johnson is a charlatan tosspot: a useless self-serving loser who is always overstated in the polls. He blows every which way and has allowed an even more politically dimwitted anarchist to push his party into an official No Deal Brexit: which is now their only course of action.
No Deal is finished. Dead. The only way it could happen is if Johnson wins a stonking majority, which isn't going to happen, especially on that manifesto.
If he retains the support of the red tops and Telegraph, Johnson might avoid a Corbyn outright majority. But as I said yesterday, parties that go into elections disunited, let alone ripping themselves asunder in open civil war, do NOT win elections.
Bet accordingly.
Mr. L, an extension for an actual reason could make sense. Just stringing out the indecision is one more political failure.
To a man (and woman) there is frustration and anger at Corbyn and parliament for a perception of 'playing games'.
It doesn't mean these sorts of people are necessariy going to vote for Boris but Labour are in big trouble if the feeling of fatigue and frustration are symptomatic of the country generally.
Why would you vote Labour unless you are a legacy drone from yesteryear?
The LD's and SNP will be fine as they've played a straight bat pretty much all the way through.
I wonder how Varadkar will make it clear enough to Johnson that there MUST be acceptable arrangements on the Irish border. Trouble is, Johnson doesn't 'do' detail.
In their position, wouldn't you just want the UK gone ? I think the worst case scenario for them would be a 51% revoke, and decades more of this with a reluctant member one election away from another article 50 notification
If the PM thinks he can get a majority of 30-40, with a higher percentage of yes men (and women) MPs, he would no longer be reliant on the DUP or the extreme part of the ERG. At that stage the chance of a deal does increase, although it wont be by end October, hence the need for an extension.
Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1169490676767232000
As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.
He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.
The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.
It's over. For Johnson.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1169494157834051585
Remaining in the EU is no more a stable endpoint than No Deal Brexit.
Them polling around 15-25% suggests it resonates with closer to a third of the country, than the majority. Just as no dealers falsely conflate no deal with support for leaving, it is no good conflating revoke with an original remain vote.
Please keep an eye out for Aunt Gladys' next tweet won't you.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1169494892978016256
More importantly, they're targeting effectively. The regional splits in this election will be really important and they're bad news for the tories. Cummings (and Byronic) is completely wrong to think they will win the Labour heartlands. They won't. The south will see massive swings to LibDems. Scotland will see big swings away from the tories.
Johnson is up a creek without a paddle.
I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).
Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
However I also believe the majority would still love to see Brexit reversed. The idea the EU will be some happy peaceful ambrosial place, once we’re gone, is bollocks. The euro is still crocked, Greece is still in pain, Italy stagnates, Germany is heading into recession, the migration crisis worsens, Hungary and Poland are snarling. With most if not all of these problems, the EU is much better off with the UK in not out.
And wiser EU bods surely know that a Brexit, of any form, is a horrible, grievous blow to the prestige of The Project. Losing your 2nd or 3rd most powerful member. Joint biggest military power. Home of Europe’s greatest city. Home of the English language. The EU’s best universities. Much of its best science. Etc
They don’t want that. Even if we deeply irritate them.
Suspect the FT dude heard what the EU wanted FT readers to read.
https://twitter.com/TomKibasi/status/1169402227385077760?s=20
This was a massive change in government policy. The ascetic, unimaginative world view of Hammond based on smaller government, lower taxes, squeezing government spending and doing as little as possible has been replaced by something that is much closer to what at least Ed Miliband would have gone for if not the full McDonnell who doesn't want to just turn on the taps but make good every cut in the last decade, apparently all at once.
I think that there is a good argument to be had if this is good economics given we are still indulging in excessive consumption and insufficient saving driving a dangerous trade deficit. I can see the likes of @another_richard gnashing their teeth in frustration. There may be an argument that this additional spending will be counter cyclical as the world economy slows down and is a sensible way to offset any adverse consequences of the B word but its not one I would make with any great enthusiasm. Do we really need a government borrowing on our behalf when the great British consumer is already up to their ears in debt?
From a political point of view the gap between the main parties has got a lot smaller. It won't stop the usual attacks on Labour profligacy of course but will they be credible? I fear the disillusioned such as @TSE, @richard_nabavi and @DavidHerdson will once again be wondering where the hell their party has gone.
p.s. I don't tend to lose money betting. We shall see
That doesn't mean extensions are guaranteed, since it only takes one leader to blow up the whole thing, but if everyone's being sensible then they're not going to hit the eject button out of sheer boredom.
You may consider that a great success. Given the state of the Tory/Labour parties, I would consider it par.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,
If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over
Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
Ah, misread. Thought the EU were going to send a letter asking for a extension request.
If they are taking this attitude, can the UK ever actually leave?
It is a deal that anti No Deal Tories could happily sign up to. It doesn't even preclude a later divergence, provided the Border technology can be created.
Jezza has manoeuvred, perhaps by accident rather than design, into a position that has him as the moderate centrist that can close the issue down.
The treatment of those 21, and others including Sonia Khan, is absolutely disgraceful. It's already unravelling.
I'll take that as a no then should I?
And also, “Bollocks to Brexit” is NOT sufficient.
They need a answer to the accusation that they will prop up Corbyn; they need an answer to the accusation that they are ignoring the public will.
The pitch needs to be extended. Every vote for the Lib Dems is a vote against Brexit, against Boris, and against Corbyn : and to...take back control.
I think this is right on the money.
The obvious way to stop Brexit weariness is to kill it.
If Boris does not undertake the law it is for our Parliamrnt and our Courts to hold him to account, not the EU
Er, I have brilliant odds by juggling some really good bets across national and constituency lines. I very much doubt you have the time or expertise to match the bookies I use. Nor would I trust you to pay up when I win if you did. No offence.
All the UK has to do to leave is to repeal the 1973 European Communities Act.
No dealers will believe he really wanted no deal but was stopped by parliament.
Dealers will feel frustrated by another delay and that we took the threat of no deal away too early.
The hardcore will be delighted by the removal of Grieve and Clarke.
The flip side is how actively will one nation Tory MPs and officials support and campaign for the election? And for opponents, they will be much happier voting anti Tory, even if that means Corbyn than they have been for some time.
Mr Johnson has been trying very hard to do nothing, as doing nothing brings about no deal. Proroguing Parliament gives him more time to do nothing. A Queens Speech and the following debate is doing nothing in terms of getting Brexit sorted. The house of commons has told Mr Johnson "You have to do something".
PB is in no way reflective of wider society, it is a thoroughly entertaining forum but as a litmus for normal people it is dreadful. There is so much swivel-eyed ranting on here from remainers that it is almost become twitter-lite.
I am pretty confident there are going to be some utterly distraught remainers/Labour supporters after the GE who cannot fathom how the result was so different to the prevailing 'wisdom' on here.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
"I was blustering and talking crap and I know I would lose the bet".
I use that word because it’s hosing money for electorate effect rather than for what’s right for good Government. I haven’t seen the numbers yet but going on what’s reported that must bring to end any hope of eliminating all of the deficit.
Where money is really needed is in affordable housing, better grading the transition to Universal Credit, social care, justice and prisons, the foreign office and defence. And that should be slow and steady and dependent upon overall fiscal conservatism and the state of the economy.
But, I suppose there aren’t many votes in those.