Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Yes, Berger has a London home in Finchley apparently. And you don't need me to explain why Corbyn's Labour might not be a big draw in Finchley and Golders Green, and why Luciana Berger might be.
I think it was also the highest vote anywhere for Change:UK in the Euroes, so fertile ground indeed.
Look at the direction of travel. Boris's reputation is being mangled in slow motion and public opinion is hardening. Can anyone with a straight face say they trust Boris Johnson personally professionally morally or in any way at all?
This is all true. But you can also substitute Donald Trump and the same sentence still works, yet he failed to refute any of it and just consistently hit messages that resonated with his target voters, and now he's president of the United States, terrifyingly.
ITV news says Boris will refuse to go to Brussels and ask for an extension even if the anti No Deal Bill passes
Then he'll be held in comtept of parliment.
If you don't trust Johnson to do this surely best not to have him as PM on the day ?
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.
Boris doesn't have a majority anymore. Once Benn's bill is enacted it's time not for a vote but for a VONC..
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Yes, Berger has a London home in Finchley apparently. And you don't need me to explain why Corbyn's Labour might not be a big draw in Finchley and Golders Green, and why Luciana Berger might be.
I think it was also the highest vote anywhere for Change:UK in the Euroes, so fertile ground indeed.
I think Steatham was top for them but the London areas were solid 5% to 7% change
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Yes, Berger has a London home in Finchley apparently. And you don't need me to explain why Corbyn's Labour might not be a big draw in Finchley and Golders Green, and why Luciana Berger might be.
I think it was also the highest vote anywhere for Change:UK in the Euroes, so fertile ground indeed.
Labour is unlikely to win in Finchley, but a lot of non-Tory voters will have backed them in the absence of any other credible challenge.
But the biggest change will arise from Labour’s chance visibly disappearing.
Berger will transform the dynamics in that seat. If she pulls across the Tory remainers and the many who voted Tory simply from fear of a Labour gain, she’s in.
Could it be that Sinn Fein will send MPs via a different route by supporting a non Sinn Fein candidate.
That Johnson is a crook beyond anyone's imagination repeated ad nauseam is not news. This is! A complete game changer .
The DUP may not be so keen on an early election.
And it could point the way toward similar arrangements between mainland parties (a strong possibility anyway IMO).
You can take those who voted for the 1st election as definites in my opinion, Ronnie Campbell was as good an indicator as any (A good friend of Corbyn's and hard brexiter) of Corbyn's true thoughts I think.
The Gov't needs to rustle up 20 or so more to pass a 1 line bill.
There seens to be two reasons this could be the case. First, tactical voting and, second, Labour getting a better spread of seats than previously.
They now have a tactical voting plug we can be generous with and I can't see the argument for why they would get a better spread than last time. Their spread was already very good and it seems like the voters they have lost have been the suburban types that are the distributed ones.
Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.
The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.
Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.
Yeah.. I think it's going to feel pretty immediate this time if we vote during a 3 month extension, and people will be more focused on it than in 2017. That will work in favour of those with a clear, simple Brexit position (either way). And (therefore) against Labour.
My hunch is the Lib Dems are less toxic for those on the left than in 2017 (student loans will feel like old news this time round, IMO, especially if you think Corbyn's a weasel on Brexit)... and may also pick up some of the Clarkeite wing of the Tories who feel they've been left outside.
But never underestimate the "sticky" vote for the big two.. inherited through generations of families.. which will give Lab and Con at least 5 per cent more than they deserve (alongside their other FPTP advantages).
ITV news says Boris will refuse to go to Brussels and ask for an extension even if the anti No Deal Bill passes
Then he'll be held in comtept of parliment.
If you don't trust Johnson to do this surely best not to have him as PM on the day ?
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.
Boris doesn't have a majority anymore. Once Benn's bill is enacted it's time not for a vote but for a VONC..
Depends which comes first, if an election bill is passing, a VONC stands zero chance of success
There seens to be two reasons this could be the case. First, tactical voting and, second, Labour getting a better spread of seats than previously.
They now have a tactical voting plug we can be generous with and I can't see the argument for why they would get a better spread than last time. Their spread was already very good and it seems like the voters they have lost have been the suburban types that are the distributed ones.
More fundamentally, the ‘minor’ parties will play a bigger role, and UNS never worked for them in the first place, even back in the old days. Further, the basis of politics is shifting from class toward culture, with a strong age dimension, and this falls differently in different geographies.
Look at the direction of travel. Boris's reputation is being mangled in slow motion and public opinion is hardening. Can anyone with a straight face say they trust Boris Johnson personally professionally morally or in any way at all?
This is all true. But you can also substitute Donald Trump and the same sentence still works, yet he failed to refute any of it and just consistently hit messages that resonated with his target voters, and now he's president of the United States, terrifyingly.
I think this is right. The trust argument only works because you don't trust politicians to do what you want them to do. But if an untrustworthy politician has become completely dependent on you, like Trump has with evangelicals, he suddenly becomes very trustworthy from their perspective, in an odd sort of way.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
But the LDs do appear too far behind to win. She could end up allowing the Cons to keep the seat.
She's much more likely to end up allowing Labour to take the seat. That part of the world isn't particularly fond of Brexit (albeit it did vote heavily for Johnson twice as mayor, but then again it really hates Ken Livingstone).
Given her stated reasons for leaving the Labour party, you'd have thought preventing a Corbyn government would be at least roughly as important to Berger as preventing (a No Deal) Brexit.
I must admit, being a good Merseyside lad, I have a dislike for MPs who bounce around seats to try to win, especially when it concerns Merseyside.
I hate McVey for running from Wirral West. I'd have the same opinion of Berger if she runs from Wavertree.
I know Merseyside is donkey with a red rosette territory, but I wish some of these MPs would stick with the area they know or where elected in originally rather than bounce around half the country trying to find safe seats.
ITV news says Boris will refuse to go to Brussels and ask for an extension even if the anti No Deal Bill passes
Then he'll be held in comtept of parliment.
If you don't trust Johnson to do this surely best not to have him as PM on the day ?
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.
Boris doesn't have a majority anymore. Once Benn's bill is enacted it's time not for a vote but for a VONC..
Depends which comes first, if an election bill is passing, a VONC stands zero chance of success
If I am correct the request is made but cannot be voted on because Parliament being prorogued
Could it be that Sinn Fein will send MPs via a different route by supporting a non Sinn Fein candidate.
That Johnson is a crook beyond anyone's imagination repeated ad nauseam is not news. This is! A complete game changer .
The DUP may not be so keen on an early election.
And it could point the way toward similar arrangements between mainland parties (a strong possibility anyway IMO).
Indeed. The Alliance, supported en masse by SF votes, threatens several hitherto secure DUP seats.
None of the Belfast seats are particularly secure for the DUP - East was gained in an alliance surge a few years back, South was always an SDLP seat for ages and North has a 2081 majority over the 'ra. shinners.
SDLP/Sinn Fein South/North & Sinn Fein/Alliance North/East agreements make sense though the latter will cost the Alliance soft remain unionist votes.
Could it be that Sinn Fein will send MPs via a different route by supporting a non Sinn Fein candidate.
That Johnson is a crook beyond anyone's imagination repeated ad nauseam is not news. This is! A complete game changer .
The DUP may not be so keen on an early election.
And it could point the way toward similar arrangements between mainland parties (a strong possibility anyway IMO).
Indeed. The Alliance, supported en masse by SF votes, threatens several hitherto secure DUP seats.
None of the Belfast seats are particularly secure for the DUP - East was gained in an alliance surge a few years back, South was always an SDLP seat for ages and North has a 2081 majority over the 'ra. shinners.
SDLP/Sinn Fein South/North & Sinn Fein/Alliance North/East agreements make sense though the latter will cost the Alliance soft remain unionist votes.
I think it's more the latter may cost Alliance soft remain unionist votes - where else can they go.
The only DUP seats under threat from a SF climbdown are Lagan Valley and the belfast seat they got from the SDLP. Theyll come to an accommodation with the UUP in South Antrim and are north of 50% in the rest. One other Belfast seat is SF/DUP marginal
I'm not convinced that constantly reflecting the opinions of the average US voter (as they change over time) is quite the qualification for actually leading the country...
Maybe not but if the situation is that the current president is a dangerous maniac, and everybody knows this but he still might somehow win again if they disagree with the challenger too much, it might be the safest way out of the situation.
ITV news says Boris will refuse to go to Brussels and ask for an extension even if the anti No Deal Bill passes
Then he'll be held in comtept of parliment.
If you don't trust Johnson to do this surely best not to have him as PM on the day ?
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.
Boris doesn't have a majority anymore. Once Benn's bill is enacted it's time not for a vote but for a VONC..
Depends which comes first, if an election bill is passing, a VONC stands zero chance of success
If I am correct the request is made but cannot be voted on because Parliament being prorogued
And everything is optics at the moment.
If the election vote passes then parliament is dissolved not prorogued
Labour gradually recovering, will be even with Tories by polling day. Goodbye BoZo.
Christmas dinner looks to be fun in the Johnson household. Chlorinated Turkey anyone?
'Labour gradually recovering?' Labour polling worse than Foot and Boris now has as big a lead as Cameron did in 2015 when he won a majority with Hanbury
Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been
.
Wavertree includes a lot of the old Edge Hill constituency, which David Alton held for the LDs from 1979 to 97, after it rebranded as Mossley Hill.
Though the idea of including much of Edge Hill (as working class as any seat in Britain) into a constituency called Mossley Hill (in my day, a synonym for poshness) was surreal. And Alton's popularity in such a seat gives the lie to the "only Labour can win in Liverpool" myth that's taken over the political commentariat.
Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been
.
Wavertree includes a lot of the old Edge Hill constituency, which David Alton held for the LDs from 1979 to 97, after it rebranded as Mossley Hill.
Though the idea of including much of Edge Hill (as working class as any seat in Britain) into a constituency called Mossley Hill (in my day, a synonym for poshness) was surreal. And Alton's popularity in such a seat gives the lie to the "only Labour can win in Liverpool" myth that's taken over the political commentariat.
While the “red echo” (in politics and football bias) is the only source of news most people in the city get. It will be a truism
Comments
And it could point the way toward similar arrangements between mainland parties (a strong possibility anyway IMO).
But the biggest change will arise from Labour’s chance visibly disappearing.
Berger will transform the dynamics in that seat. If she pulls across the Tory remainers and the many who voted Tory simply from fear of a Labour gain, she’s in.
The Gov't needs to rustle up 20 or so more to pass a 1 line bill.
They now have a tactical voting plug we can be generous with and I can't see the argument for why they would get a better spread than last time. Their spread was already very good and it seems like the voters they have lost have been the suburban types that are the distributed ones.
My hunch is the Lib Dems are less toxic for those on the left than in 2017 (student loans will feel like old news this time round, IMO, especially if you think Corbyn's a weasel on Brexit)... and may also pick up some of the Clarkeite wing of the Tories who feel they've been left outside.
But never underestimate the "sticky" vote for the big two.. inherited through generations of families.. which will give Lab and Con at least 5 per cent more than they deserve (alongside their other FPTP advantages).
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1169592289179709441
I hate McVey for running from Wirral West. I'd have the same opinion of Berger if she runs from Wavertree.
I know Merseyside is donkey with a red rosette territory, but I wish some of these MPs would stick with the area they know or where elected in originally rather than bounce around half the country trying to find safe seats.
And everything is optics at the moment.
NEW THREAD
'ra.shinners.SDLP/Sinn Fein South/North & Sinn Fein/Alliance North/East agreements make sense though the latter will cost the Alliance soft remain unionist votes.
“Remember, remember, the 5th or September, surrender etc. etc”.
Christmas dinner looks to be fun in the Johnson household. Chlorinated Turkey anyone?
Though the idea of including much of Edge Hill (as working class as any seat in Britain) into a constituency called Mossley Hill (in my day, a synonym for poshness) was surreal. And Alton's popularity in such a seat gives the lie to the "only Labour can win in Liverpool" myth that's taken over the political commentariat.